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India's Evolving Maritime Posture in The India’s Evolving Maritime Posture in the Indian Ocean: Opportunities for the Gulf EDA INSIGHT RESEARCH & ANALYSIS AUGUST 2020 India’s Evolving Maritime Posture in the Indian Ocean: Opportunities for the Gulf Abhijit Singh Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Emirates Diplomatic Academy, an autonomous federal entity, or the UAE Government. Copyright: Emirates Diplomatic Academy 2020. Cover photo: U.S. Pacific Fleet, via Flickr. India’s Evolving Maritime Posture in the Indian Ocean: Opportunities for the Gulf Abhijit Singh Senior Fellow and Head of Maritime Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation Abhijit Singh is Senior Fellow and Head of Maritime Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. A former Indian naval officer with specialist and command experience in front-line Indian naval ships, he is a commentator on maritime affairs, particularly security and governance issues in the Indian Ocean and Pacific littorals. He has edited two books on maritime security – Indian Ocean Challenges: A Quest for Cooperative Solutions and Geopolitics of the Indo- Pacific. He also assisted in the compilation of the third volume of Indian Naval History – Transition to Guardianship. Executive Summary ◊ The Indian Ocean Region (IOR)is witnessing the rise ◊ The navy realises the need for it to be a gentle security of India as a maritime power. With a vital geographic stabiliser – a source of positive deterrence and greater location in South Asia, astride critical sea-lanes, India is regional goods. It is projecting power in ways that gearing to play an important economic and security role reassure regional states, while pushing back against in the region. aggressive posturing by extra-regional players. Yet, following clashes between the Indian Army and the ◊ In line with New Delhi’s growing power and regional Peoples’ Liberation Army in Eastern Ladakh in June this aspiration, the Indian navy has expanded its operations year, Indian decision makers worry that the Indian Ocean in the Western Indian Ocean, the Middle East and the could become a new front in the India-China rivalry. Gulf, positioning itself as a ‘regional security provider’. ◊ Apart from detailing India’s maritime strategy in the ◊ Notwithstanding conjecture about growing India- IOR, this Insight lists the challenges and opportunities China rivalry in the Indian Ocean, the Indian navy’s for the Indian navy in the Gulf region. While the principal objective is the effective policing of the differences in India’s and the GCC countries’ ties with regional commons. India’s regional maritime strategy Pakistan, Iran and China serve as challenges, the analysis is aimed primarily at building bridges of friendship, identifies enhanced India-Gulf collaboration in the IOR improving partner capability and expanding crises in the following areas – using Indian navy’s constabulary response capacity. experience to deal with soft security issues; using Indian navy’s capabilities to share the burden of maintaining ◊ A pillar of India’s maritime strategy is outreach to IOR regional security in a post-COVID world, which could island states, African rim states and the Gulf countries. witness defence budget cuts; joint management of the Through bilateral exercises, joint patrols, training, commons, especially human security challenges; and capacity building and hydrographic surveys, the navy training regional maritime forces. has sought closer ties with regional maritime forces. In improving its crises-response capabilities, the Indian ◊ Such a cooperative arrangement, the Insight navy is being careful, however, not to inadvertently concludes, would help the Indian navy create a durable menace any regional or extra-regional powers. template of maritime cooperation in the Gulf, thus addressing some of the region’s concerns in a changing security environment. 1 India’s Evolving Maritime Posture in the Indian Ocean: Opportunities for the Gulf Introduction concerted efforts, first under ‘think-West6, and later as part of a ‘Link and Act West Policy’ have brought New For many years following its independence, India’s Delhi closer to Gulf countries.7 conception of the maritime domain and its security was limited to South Asia and the Eastern Indian Ocean. This The countries in the region too have welcomed closer sensitive littoral – comprising the Arabian Sea and the engagement with New Delhi. Many Gulf governments Bay of Bengal – was seen as the critical link between worry about US commitment to the region and have India and countries on its periphery, and a sphere of been anxious to diversify their economic and security Indian influence.1 partnerships. With its nearly US$3 trillion economy, India, a leading consumer of energy resources, with India strove for political influence and strategic primacy a robust defence apparatus, fits into GCC countries’ in the wider Indian Ocean, and saw itself as a natural notion of a strategic partner. Consequently, the region’s provider of security. But its strategic elites regarded dealings with India on economic and security issues the Western Indian Ocean as a secondary space – a have expanded. New Delhi’s keenness to expand geography viewed mainly through the lens of a distant naval engagement with the region coincides with the regionalism. Notwithstanding its substantial economic UAE assuming chairmanship of the Indian Ocean Rim interests in the Middle East and East Africa, New Delhi Association in 2019 and Abu Dhabi’s wider strategy to didn’t quite view the region as being strategically prioritise maritime security.8 significant. This does not detract from the difficulties India has At the turn of the century, however, the Western Indian faced in nurturing close relations with Gulf partners. Ocean emerged as a prominent theatre of security Indian decision makers have been cognisant of the interest. As India’s trade linkages and diaspora interests conflicts in the regional littorals and sought to tread grew, a space earlier considered politically distant a safe path. Yet the overlapping interests of various began to figure prominently in New Delhi’s mind map. stakeholders in the Gulf region have been hard for But even as its stakes in Africa and the Middle East were New Delhi to navigate. The geopolitical dialectic has growing, India was still unsure about the exact nature been complicated by growing non-traditional security of its security role in the region. With intra-regional challenges, with rising instances of drugs and arms rivalries rife, New Delhi hesitated to expand its security trade, human trafficking and illegal fishing. presence. It wasn’t until a decade ago that New Delhi began defining its interests in the Western Indian Ocean Ensuring Regional Prosperity Region (W-IOR) with greater purpose and clarity. Following increased high-level political engagement For a fuller appreciation of India’s evolving security with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, India’s posture in the Indian Ocean, it is important to understand maritime security cooperation with the region grew New Delhi’s strategic stakes in its near and extended significantly. In the years since, the Middle East has neighbourhood. The Asian maritime theatre is an enabler become a vital source of energy for India, and home of global value chains as it hosts vital nautical capillaries to a large population of Indian workers.2 The United of commerce that nourish world economies. Of the six Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are today India’s major global chokepoints, four lie in this region.9 Among third and fourth-largest trading partners respectively, these, the Straits of Malacca – through which almost a and the total bilateral trade of the GCC countries with quarter of world trade passes – is the most vital. This India for the year 2018-19 stood at US$121.34 billion.3 main artery of the world economy is important not just Remittances from the region contribute significantly to for China, but also for economies in East Asia, Europe India’s foreign exchange earnings, adding up to US$ 42 and the Middle East.10 Likewise, the Strait of Hormuz billion in 2018.4 is a critical conduit for energy shipments from the Gulf region, and for the flow of Asian workforce, capital and The substantive shift in India’s West Asian or Middle consumer goods to the countries in the region. Eastern diplomacy is a hallmark of the Narendra Modi government. Since coming to office in 2014, Prime The chokepoints dominate more than the commercial Minister Modi has pushed a proactive strategy of and economic lifelines into and out of the rapidly partnering with key Gulf countries to attract investments expanding economies of South and East Asia. The and forge deeper security partnerships.5 He has visited global strategic growth and expansion of aspiring the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Iran, as powers can be contained and regulated through the well as Jordan, Palestine, and Israel. The government’s mere control on the movements of their naval forces 2 India’s Evolving Maritime Posture in the Indian Ocean: Opportunities for the Gulf through these Straits. With more than 150,000 vessels the Southeastern coast of Iran.13 Similarly the United transiting through these narrow waterways every year States is a stakeholder in Duqm, Oman.14 India, the the destinies of many regional and global economies are United Kingdom and China also happen to be the main dependent on effective maritime security.11 powerbrokers in the Indian Ocean – constantly looking to influence emerging geopolitical equations in the There is also the emergence of new trading centres region. in the region. Growing foreign trade has led to the establishment of many transshipment hubs, even as new Preserving influence in the littorals isn’t New Delhi’s roads, rail systems and pipelines traverse Asia from West only consideration; Indian decision makers have been to East, providing access to the landmass of Eurasia.
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