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Cloud Commuting and Mobility-As-A- Service Cloud Commuting and Mobility-as-a- Service David Levinson University of Minnesota University of Sydney Climbing Mount Auto: The Rise of Cars in the 20th Century Passenger Trips by Public Transit per Capita 105 140 35 70 Unlinked Passenger Journeys by Public Transport PerCapita Transport Unlinked Passenger Journeys by Public PerCapita Transport Passenger JourneysbyPublic PerCapita Travel Kilometers of Vehicle 0 1900 1905 1910 1915 Figure 1.1: Climbing Mount Auto Figure 1.1:ClimbingMount 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 13,500 18,000 4,500 9,000 0 Vehicle Kilometers Traveled per Capita 10 20 30 40 0 1960 1965 Figure 1.2RoadwaysperCapitainUS(m) 1970 Unpaved Roadways per Capita Paved Roadways perCapita 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Registered Motor Vehicles in US 150,000,000 225,000,000 300,000,000 75,000,000 0 1900 Figure 1.3RegisteredmotorvehiclesinUS 1910 Motor vehicles per capita Registered motorvehiclesin US 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 0.225 0.675 0.45 0.9 0 Motor Vehicles per Capita Figure 1.4 Total Time Spent Traveling per capita (minutes) 80 70 60 Leisure and Sports 50 Organizational, Civic, and Religious Education 40 Work Care and Help Non-household Members 30 Care and Helping Household Members Goods and Services 20 Household Activities Eating and Drinking 10 Personal Care 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Figure 1.6 Average Trip Distance by Age and Year of Figure 1.5 Person Trips per Day Birth Cohort (Miles, All by Age and Year of Birth Purposes) 6 10 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 1 2 0 0 18 28 38 48 58 68 78 88 18 28 38 48 58 68 78 88 Age (lower bound) Age (lower bound) Born Before 1924 1924-1933 1934-1943 1944-1953 1954-1963 1964-1973 1974-1983 1984-1993 Less Traffic is a Good Thing • Cars Crash • Cars Pollute Table 1: Deaths per 100,000 people Road injury + other transport Total air pollution injury Deaths per year 15 36 • Noise Annoy Years of life lost per year 653 565 • Cars Consume Lots of Space (US Parking = Virginia) • Cars Isolate What Killed America’s Traffic? Changing Demographics Figure 3.1 Population of Age Groups in US 2014 100+ Male Female 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 6,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 6,000,000 14,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 14,000,000 Changing Nature of Work Figure 3.2 US Labor Force Participation Rate: 1948-2015 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 58 60 62 64 66 68 At Home Working Figure 3.4 Telecommuting in Minneapolis- St. Paul Region 100% Never Once a year 75% A few times per year or more Once per month or more Once per week or more 4-5 days per week 50% 25% 0% 2001 2011 Online Shopping Figure 3.5 Time Spent Shopping per Day in Minneapolis St. Paul Region (minutes) 60 Female Nonworkers Male Nonworkers Female Workers 45 Male Workers 30 15 0 1990 2001 2011 Figure 11.1 East Brainerd Mall on Black Friday (28 Nov 2014) Figure 11.2 Food and alcohol expenditures (by share) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Alcohol 0.2 Food away from home Food at home 0.1 0 1869 1897 1907 1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Virtual Connectivity Figure 3.7 Travel by Purpose per household (km) 60,000 45,000 Other Social and Recreational 30,000 School/Church Other Family/Personal Errands Shopping 15,000 Work Related Business To/From Work 0 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 A License to Roam 0 1 2 3 4 5 Apr 05, 1993 Apr 03, 1995 Figure 3.8USRetailGasolinePrice(DollarsperGallon) Mar 31, 1997 Mar 29, 1999 Fuel Prices Mar 26, 2001 Mar 24, 2003 Mar 21, 2005 Mar 19, 2007 Mar 16, 2009 Mar 14, 2011 Mar 11, 2013 Mar 09, 2015 Competing Modes Figure 3.9 Mode Shares in Minneapolis - St. Paul Region, Summer 2001 vs. Summer 2011 Auto Transit Bike Walk School Bus Other 2001 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mode Share, all trip purposes 250 Figure 3.10 Billions of Pieces of Mail Handled Per Year: US Post 200 150 100 Office (1926-2009) 50 0 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 5. Transitioning Toward Electric Vehicles Figure 5.2 Lithium Ion Battery Pricing by Cell Type (2009-2020) ($/ kWh) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Consumer Electronics Li-ion 600 Large Format Li-ion 400 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Norwegian Electric Vehicle Market Share 30 22.5 15 7.5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/17/business/international/norway-is-global-model-for-encouraging-sales-of-electric-cars.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share&_r=0 Figure 5.1 US Sales of Electric Vehicles 600,000 450,000 Plug-in EV and Extended Range EV Battery EV 300,000 Hybrid EV 150,000 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Autonomous Autos Box 7.1: NHTSA (2013) Policy on Automated Vehicle Development No-Automation (Level 0): The driver is in Benefits and complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls – brake, steering, throttle, and motive power – at all times. Function-specific Automation (Level 1): Automation at this level involves one or more Consequences specific control functions. Examples include electronic stability control or pre-charged brakes, where the vehicle automatically assists with • Safety braking to enable the driver to regain control of the vehicle or stop faster than possible by acting • Right-of-Way alone. • Combined Function Automation (Level 2): This Vehicle Form Retrofit level involves automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. An example of combined functions enabling a Level • Parking • Roadspace 2 system is adaptive cruise control in combination with lane centering. Reallocation Limited Self-Driving Automation (Level 3): Vehicles at this level of automation enable the • Capacity driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental • Nomadism conditions and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those • Cars without conditions requiring transition back to driver control. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control, but with sufficiently People • Ownership comfortable transition time. Google’s converted test vehicles are an example of limited self-driving automation. • Mobility for the • Activity-in-Motion Full Self-Driving Automation (Level 4): The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions Immobile for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation • Status input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes • Costs both occupied and unoccupied vehicles. Google’s new “bug-like” car design without a steering wheel or brakes is an example. Figure 7.1 Cumulative km traveled in Autonomous Mode by Google Self-Driving Car 3,000,000 2,400,000 1,800,000 1,200,000 600,000 0 2010-10 2012-08 2013-03 2014-04 2015-05 2016-04 US Vehicle Fleet by NHTSA Automation Level 100 Fleet with Level 4 Fleet with Level 3 Fleet with Level 2 Fleet with Level 1 75 Fleet with Level 0 50 25 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 • Level 2, 2.5 Now (Tesla Auto-Pilot, etc.) • Level 3 ("limited self- driving automation") autonomous vehicles will be on the market by 2020. • Level 4 will be available in 2025 and required in new US cars by 2030, and required for all cars by 2040. • In other words, human driven vehicles will eventually be prohibited on public roads (aside from special events). Tesla S New Activities in Motion New activities becoming possible after self-driving cars (minutes) 70.00 66.6522 52.50 46.0118 • A limited set of personal care activity including dressing & grooming, health- related self care, personal/private activities; 35.00 • A limited set of child care activities including reading to/with children, home 17.50 schooling, and arts and crafts with children; 2.5532 3.155 • 0.3672 Eating and drinking; 0.00 • Tobacco and drug use; and • Participation in religious practices. Child care Personal care Eating and drinking Tobacco and drug use Participation in religious practices Fan (2016) A Cambrian Explosion of Vehicle Forms “Google Car” Shape-Sifting MIT “Stackable City Car” Concept Smaller GM Lean Machine Gogoro Toyota iRoad And Bigger “Toyota Swagger” with Fewer Wheels? Ryno Impacts: Longer trip distances & durations Mokhtarian and Salomon (2001): Excess travel is more likely to occur as people increase the perceived positive utility of activities Fan (2016) MaaS Transport Figure 8.3 Growth of Bike Sharing Systems Globally 600 120 450 90 Cumulative Number Added 300 60 150 30 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Figure 5.3: Car2Go Car2Go | Smart Fortwo Figure 8.2 North American Carsharing Growth 1,800,000 30,000 1,350,000 22,500 Members Vehicles 900,000 15,000 450,000 7,500 0 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Cloud Commuting • Smaller, more modern fleet (fleet in motion more, wears out faster) • Coverage, logistics (wider coverage than transit, MaaS best serves non-work trips, load-balancing and dead- heading issues) • Costs (lowered labor costs) • Electrification (less range anxiety) • Street Design (accommodate pick-up/drop-off … the network as a taxi-stand) Land Use Consequences (MaaS + AVs) Up and Out: The Future of Travel Demand and Where We Live • Up: Less vehicle ownership with increased use of MaaS in cities, raising the value of cities.
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