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The Future of Autonomous Vehicles 2020

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The Future of Autonomous Vehicles 2020 The Future of Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous of Future The Global Insights gained from Multiple Expert Discussions Multiple from gained Insights Global THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Global Insights gained from Multiple Expert Discussions 1 Glossary Abbreviation Definition ACC Adaptive Cruise Control - Adjusts vehicle speed to maintain safe distance from vehicle ahead ADS Driving System - Integrated performance of decision-making and operation of vehicle by machine ADAS Advanced Driver Assistance System - Safety technologies such as lane departure warning ADSE Automated Driving System Entity – Legal entity responsible for the ADS AEB Autonomous Emergency Braking – Detects traffic situations and ensures optimal braking AUV Autonomous Underwater Vehicle – Submarine or underwater robot not requiring operator input AV Autonomous Vehicle - vehicle capable of sensing and navigating without human input CAAC Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control – ACC with information sharing with other vehicles and infrastructure CAV Connected and Autonomous Vehicles – Grouping of both wirelessly connected and autonomous vehicles DARPA US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency - Responsible for the development of emerging technologies DDT Dynamic Driving Task – Operation functions that form part of driving the vehicle DSRC Dedicated Short-Range Communications - Wireless communication channels specifically designed for automotive use EV Electric Vehicle – Vehicle that used one or more electric motors for propulsion GSR General Safety Regulation – European type-approval for the safety of vehicles GVA Gross Value Added - The value of goods / services produced in an area or industry of an economy HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle – EU term for any truck with a gross combination mass over 3,500kg (same as US LGV) HMI Human Machine Interface – User interface between a vehicle and the driver / passenger IATA International Air Transport Association - Trade association of the world’s airlines INS Inertial Navigation Systems - Device that uses sensors to calculate the position, orientation and velocity of a moving object ISO International Organization for Standardization - An international standard-setting body ITS Intelligent Transportation System - More informed, coordinated and safer transport network. LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging - Laser-based 3D scanning and sensing MaaS Mobility as a Service - Mobility solutions that are consumed as a service rather than purchased as a product MSP Mobility Service Providers - Entities that provide consumers with enhanced travel ODD Operational Design Domain - Definition of where and when a vehicle is designed to operate OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer - The original producer of a vehicle or its components ROI Return on Investment - Performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment SAE Society of Automotive Engineers – US based professional association and standards developing organization TNC Transportation Network Company – also known as a mobility service provider (MSP) matches passengers with vehicles UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle - An aircraft piloted by remote control or onboard computers VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled – Measure of distance of travel over a given period of time V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure - Wireless exchange of data between vehicle and the highway system V2V Vehicle to Vehicle – Wireless exchange of data between nearby vehicles V2X Vehicle to External Environment - Wireless exchange between a vehicle and its surroundings Text © Future Agenda 2020 Images © istockimages.com / Corporate image libraries Graphs © As referenced First published April 2020 by: Future Agenda Limited 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH www.futureagenda.org Contents Foreword 5 Improved Safety 52 Environmental and Social Impact 58 1.0 Introduction 6 More Congestion 64 Summary of Findings 8 Less Parking 69 Hosts and Participations 11 Rethinking Planning 72 A Wicked Problem 12 What is Open Foresight 13 Part Two: Moving People 76 Project Approach 14 Public Transport Systems 78 The Impact of Covid-19 17 Resistance to Sharing 85 Robo-Taxi Fleets 89 2.0 Where We Have Come From 18 First and Last Mile 93 Automated Driving 18 Air Taxis 97 Development vs. Deployment 19 Part Three: Goods Transportation 100 The OEM Position 23 Drones for Goods 102 The Business Opportunity 24 Urban Delivery 106 The AV Roadmap 25 Automated Freight 110 3.0 The Forward View 26 Truck Platoons 116 2019 – A Reset Year 26 Controlled Environments 120 Moving Forward 28 Part Four: Data and Security 126 Realistic Expectations 29 Data Sharing 129 Freight 29 Cyber Security 132 4.0 Certainties and Uncertainties 30 Remote Support Centres 136 What We Know 31 Questions and Answers 140 Key Questions 32 Final Conclusions 150 5.0 Key Insights 34 Part One: Systemic Considerations 38 More Information 156 Regulation and Liability 40 References 158 Common Standards 46 Future of Patient Data Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World Foreword The dream of self-driving vehicles has been a long This report is a synthesis of many voices and opinions time coming. It is however now within reach and on the likely future of autonomous vehicles and, as the pressure is on the deliver on the vision. With authors, we have done our best to accurately reflect sustained technology development, increased the views we heard and the context in which they investment and raising public awareness, there is were expressed. Separately we have also sought Vehicles Autonomous of Future The enormous interest in the imminent mainstream use to include our own reflections but have kept these of autonomous vehicles on the streets. distinct in the text. We hope that is useful. Although approaches vary from around the world, During the course of this project two notable shifts policy makers and urban planners in leading occurred. One was expected by some, the other locations are now seeking to collaborate more with has been a surprise for many: manufacturers, mobility providers, tech suppliers, logistics operators in order to align regulation for Just over half-way through there was the late 2019 testing and mass deployment. And it goes both ways. reset in expectations on what autonomous vehicles can achieve within the next decade or so, where The investments being made in autonomy have rapidly and how: a number of key influencers of opinion shifted from millions to billions, so unsurprisingly those changed stance on the speed of autonomous public and private organisations that are providing deployment. This was recognised and debated within Global Insights gained from Multiple Expert Discussions Multiple from gained Insights Global the funds are keen to ensure that the ROI is credible. the discussions as we saw noticeable change in There is much to play for and, although there has been sentiment. This is integrated within the report. substantial progress over recent years, significant questions on safety, social impact, business models The final workshop of this project in Silicon Valley took and performance are still unanswered. place just as the Covid19 was moving from being a regional epidemic towards a global pandemic. As such The Future of Autonomous Vehicles project was the expert views expressed in the varied discussions undertaken to canvas the views of a wide range of did not anticipate the imminent impact of such a major experts from around the world in order to create a event. We have therefore refrained from comment on clearer, informed global perspective of how autonomy the implications and some lasting shifts in society that will evolve over the next decade. Beginning with a may variously accelerate or decelerate new innovation. discussion with government officials just outside We recognise that there may well be additional future Shanghai in July 2018 and ending with leaders from changes but believe that the insight from this global across the US autonomous vehicle community in project provides a sound perspective on how the next the hills above Silicon Valley in February of 2020, decade or so of development and deployment of our project has covered a lot of ground. In all, eight Automated Transportation Systems will occur in a pre- workshops and six additional discussions have Covid19 as much as a post-Covid19 world. engaged with hundreds of different opinions, shared perspectives and built considered future pathways. All output from this project is available on the Future Agenda platform but all stimulus and reports We thank everyone involved for their time, input can be found on the dedicated mini site and insight. We would also like to specifically www.futureautonomous.org acknowledge the support of the individuals who have helped make this project happen: Alicia White, If you have any questions don’t hesitate to ask. Alvin McBorrough, Andrea Kollmorgen, Andrew Cooper, Andy Gill, Bryan Sastokas, Caroline Dewing, Cheryl Chung, Christian Haas, Ed Forrester, Glenn Lyons, Gwen Van Vugt, Jan Hellaker, Jeremy Nassau, Lee McKenzie, Linda Beatty, Mark Priest, Martijn Tideman, Rita Excell and Sofie Vennersten. 5 The Future of Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous of Future The Future of Patient Data Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World World Expert the Around Multiple Discussions from Insights Global Insights gained from Multiple Expert Discussions Multiple from gained Insights Global 1.0 Introduction Why this topic? There are great expectations around the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and equally, much uncertainty. For example, some believe that
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