Impact Evaluation of USAID's Community
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Impact Evaluation of USAID’s Community-Based Crime and Violence Prevention Approach in Central America: El Salvador Country Report By Susan Berk-Seligson, Ph.D. Diana Orcés, Ph.D. Georgina Pizzolito, M.A. Mitchell A. Seligson, Ph.D. Carole Wilson, Ph.D. The Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) Vanderbilt University This study was performed with support from the Program in Democracy and Governance of the United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the point of view of the United States Agency for International Development. Revised, August 2014 Impact Evaluation El Salvador - Report Contents List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. 5 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 9 I. Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 9 II. Main Findings .................................................................................................................................... 10 III. Policy Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 14 Part 1: Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 19 I. Evaluation Design and Data Sources .................................................................................................. 19 Sources of Baseline Data Used in this Evaluation .............................................................................. 19 Sources of Data for Mid-point Evaluation .......................................................................................... 21 Sources of Data for Final Evaluation .................................................................................................. 22 Overall Summary of Quantitative Data Sources, by Round ............................................................... 22 Qualitative Component of the Study ................................................................................................... 23 II. Drawing Conclusions: Difference-in-Difference Estimator .............................................................. 26 III. Summary of Results ........................................................................................................................... 30 Part 2: Why Study Violence Prevention? Central America, a Violent Region ................................... 35 Part 3: The CARSI Interventions and Expected Impacts ..................................................................... 41 I. USAID CARSI Interventions in El Salvador ........................................................................................ 41 II. Anticipated Impacts: Mixed methods and key dependent variables ................................................... 43 Outcome Indicators ............................................................................................................................. 45 III. The Design of the Study: A Multi-Site “Cluster Randomized Experiment” (CRE) .......................... 48 Selection of Study Area ...................................................................................................................... 50 Stages of the study and types of data collected by LAPOP ................................................................ 53 El Salvador: Number of Clusters and Sample Size ............................................................................. 57 Data Collection Sites in El Salvador ................................................................................................... 59 Part 4: Findings, Impact Evaluation, El Salvador ................................................................................. 61 I. Interpreting the Survey Design and Analysis Model ........................................................................... 61 II. Crime Victimization and Violence ...................................................................................................... 63 Perception of Insecurity ...................................................................................................................... 83 III. Neighborhood Disorder (Including Youth Vulnerability to Crime and Gang Activity) .................... 89 3 Impact Evaluation El Salvador - Report IV. Perceptions of the Gang Truce of 2012 .......................................................................................... 110 V. Domestic Violence ............................................................................................................................ 114 Social Control ................................................................................................................................... 118 General Perceptions of Neighborhood Collective Action ................................................................. 119 VI. Role of Institutions: National Police ............................................................................................... 134 VII. Indirect Effects: Democratic Values .............................................................................................. 153 Interpersonal Trust ............................................................................................................................ 153 Satisfaction with Democracy ............................................................................................................ 156 Evaluation of Government Handling of Citizen Safety .................................................................... 163 VIII. Youth-at-Risk ................................................................................................................................ 167 IX. Opinions of Creative Associates and RTI Implementing Partners on the CARSI project ............... 187 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................. 223 I. Main Findings .................................................................................................................................... 223 II. Policy Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 227 References ................................................................................................................................................ 231 Appendixes .............................................................................................................................................. 235 Appendix A: Individual Level Questionnaire ........................................................................................ 235 Appendix B: Systematic Observation Questionnaire ............................................................................ 263 Appendix C: Enumeration Survey (Census) .......................................................................................... 267 Appendix D: Previsit Questionnaire ..................................................................................................... 273 Appendix E: Qualitative Interview Questionnaires .............................................................................. 277 4 Impact Evaluation El Salvador - Report List of Figures Figure 1. Key Variables in Treatment and Control Communities, 2010-2012 ............................. 29 Figure 2. Homicide Rates in Central America ............................................................................... 36 Figure 3. Crime Prevention is the Best Way to Fight Crime and Violence in El Salvador .......... 37 Figure 4. Selected Municipalities by USAID in El Salvador ....................................................... 51 Figure 5. Illustration of Difference-in-Difference Estimation ...................................................... 61 Figure 6. Respondent-Reported Robberies in the Neighborhoods ............................................... 63 Figure 7. Marginal Change in Respondent-Reported Robberies in the Presence of Social Disorder on the Block ................................................................................................. 64 Figure 8. Marginal Change in Respondent-Reported Robberies in the Presence of a Catholic Church in the Community ........................................................................................... 65 Figure 9. Sale of Illegal Drugs in the Community in the Past 12 Months .................................... 66 Figure 10. Extortion in the Neighborhood in the Past 12 Months ................................................ 72 Figure 11. Respondent-Reported Murders in the Neighborhoods ................................................ 77 Figure 12. Marginal Change in Respondent-Reported Murders in the Presence of a School in the Community ....................................................................................................... 78 Figure 13. Marginal Change in Respondent-Reported Murders