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Conservative Income December 2015 Issue No 29 Your Complete Guide to Earning Lifelong Income from Essential Services In this Issue Talking Utility Stocks CONTENTS I’m hosting an exclusive online chat for Conrad’s Utility Investor subscribers at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, Dec. 9. The format is simple: You ask me any questions on Picks and Pans your mind; I stay online until all questions are answered. And don’t worry if you for the New Year 2 can’t stick around for the entirety of this marathon discussion; a transcript of the proceedings will be available the next morning. Endangered Dividends 7 We’ll discuss macro developments or specific stocks covered in my Utility Report Card—whatever’s on your mind. Portfolio: Given the severe downdraft in oil and gas prices since summer 2014, I expect All Eyes on 2016 8 to receive a lot of questions about our outlook for these commodities and mid- Aggressive Income Portfolio stream energy names that own pipelines and other infrastructure. Top 10 DRIPs The indiscriminate selling of these stocks has propelled yields into the strato- Conservative Income Portfolio sphere, reflecting concerns about volumetric and counterparty risks and ques- tions about these companies’ ability to grow or even sustain their distributions. Conservative Income 13 With the debt and equity markets effectively closed for many energy stocks, fund- WEC Energy Group ing remaining growth projects will be a challenge. Although master limited partnerships (MLP) and other midstream operators face Aggressive Income 14 real challenges, the selloff afflicting these names has engulfed survivors whose Exelon Corp growth prospects remain intact. As always, indiscriminate selling creates oppor- tunities for discriminating investors. Utility Report Card 15 This month’s feature article highlights my top pick in each of the nine industry groups tracked in my Utility Report Card as well as names that you should avoid at all costs. We also revisit Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) in the light of the compa- ny’s recent press release indicating that the firm will reevaluate its dividend policy for next year. Here are this month’s best buys, with an eye to the year ahead: AmeriGas Partners LP (NYSE: APU)—Buy<52, Dream Buy<30; Aqua America (NYSE: WTR)—Buy<26 or with DRIP, Dream Buy<15; AT&T (NYSE: T)—Buy<37, Dream Buy<22; Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (NYSE: BEP)—Buy<33, DISCLAIMER Capitalist Times, LLC is a publisher Dream Buy<20; of financial news and opinions and NOT a securities Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL)—Buy<77, Dream Buy<50; broker/dealer or an investment advisor. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. The Dominion Resources (NYSE: D)—Buy<75, Dream Buy<50; information contained in this report has been carefully Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC)—Buy<38, Dream Buy<25; compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. All information contained NRG Yield (NYSE: NYLD)—Buy<18, Dream Buy<10; in our newsletters or on our website(s) should be independently verified with the companies mentioned, Pembina Pipeline Corp (NYSE: PBA)—Buy<42, Dream Buy<20; and and readers should always conduct their own research WEC Energy Group (NYSE: WEC)—Buy<50, Dream Buy<30. and due diligence and consider obtaining professional advice before making any investment decision. Owners, I look forward to talking to everyone on employees and writers may hold positions in the Wednesday. securities that are discussed in our newsletters or on our website. FOR SUBSCRIPTION INFOrmatiON go Happy Holidays, to ConradsUtilityInvestor.com or call Sherry at 1-877-302-0749. Our Subscriber Services center is Roger S. Conrad open Monday through Friday, 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. EST. Conrad’s Utility Investor © 2015. Capitalist Times, LLC All Rights Reserved. December 2015 | Issue No 29 Picks and Pans for the New Year Here are my top essential-service stocks to buy for 2016 and some names investors should avoid at all costs. Two of the key tenets underpinning our strategy at Conrad’s As always, unfavorable regulatory decisions pose the primary Utility Investor are the importance of diversification and differen- threat to utilities’ earnings in 2016. tiating between individual companies. All the electric utilities in our model Portfolios offer exposure to This focus runs counter to the idea that investors are better off the industry’s biggest growth stories, including large-scale so- buying exchange-traded funds that track sector averages instead lar power and rising demand for natural gas. Equally important, of taking the time and effort to identify the best opportunities. these companies have the balance sheets to take advantage of these opportunities. We focus on identifying best-in-class names from across the spectrum of essential-service industries, buying them at reason- Conservative Income Portfolio holding Dominion Resources able prices and holding to collect a growing stream of dividends. (NYSE: D) boasts the largest midstream gas business of any This month, we review the prospects for the nine essential-ser- electric utility and created Dominion Midstream Partners LP vice groups tracked in our Utility Report Card and highlight our (NYSE: DM) to monetize these assets over the next half-decade. picks and pans for each. The proceeds from this process will help to fund its share of the Atlantic Coast pipeline project, Picks and Pans for 2016 which will supply natural gas to Virginia and the Carolinas. Industry Pick (Exchange: Ticker) Rating Pan (Exchange: Ticker) Rating The appeal of Dominion Electric Utility Dominion Resources Buy<75 Consolidated Edison SELL Midstream Partners’ equity as (NYSE: D) (NYSE: ED) a currency enabled the mas- Energy Distribution AmeriGas Partners LP Buy<52 Ferrellgas Partners LP SELL ter limited partnership (MLP) (NYSE: APU) (NYSE: FGP) to acquire an additional 25.93 Energy Buckeye Partners LP Buy<77 Enable Midstream Partners LP SELL percent interest in Iroquois Gas Transportation (NYSE: BPL) (NYSE: ENBL) Transmission from National Grid (LSE: NG, NYSE: NGG) International Brookfield Renewable Energy Buy<33 RWE (OTC: RWEOY) SELL and New Jersey Resources Partners LP (NYSE: BEP) Corp (NYSE: NJR). This pipe- Energy Sensitive Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC) Buy<38 SolarCity Corp (NSDQ: SCTY) SELL line system supplies Western Telecommunications AT&T (NYSE: T) Buy<37 CableVision Systems Corp SELL New York with natural gas from (NYSE: CVC) Appalachia’s Marcellus Shale. Water Utility Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) Buy<26 Amer States Water Co SELL Despite solid earnings, an im- (NYSE: AWR) pressive slate of growth proj- ects and salutary relations with Yieldco NRG Yield (NYSE: NYLD) Buy<17 TerraForm Power (NSDQ: TERP) SELL state regulators, Dominion Source: Conrad’s Utility Investor Resources’ stock has under- performed the Dow Jones Utilities Average this year— Electric Utilities perhaps because of concerns about the company’s midstream exposure. Look for this sentiment to reverse once the market Capital spending on regulated systems and investments in gen- focuses on the company’s fundamental advantages and growth eration capacity that operates under term contracts drove earn- opportunities in this business. ings and dividend growth for electric utilities in 2015. Dominion Resources rates a buy up to $75 per share for These factors remain in play for 2016 and the next several years, those who don’t own the stock already. Our dream price for as power generators transition from coal to cleaner forms of en- the stock is $50. ergy and invest to improve system reliability. In fact, early esti- mates suggest that utilities’ capital expenditures will eclipse last Consolidated Edison’s (NYSE: ED) shares have outperformed year’s total of about $110 billion. the Dow Jones Utilities Average by a narrow margin this year. But 2 ConradsUtilityInvestor.com December 2015 | Issue No 29 New York regulators have trained their sights on the company af- Energy Transportation ter a March 2014 gas leak blew up two buildings in East Harlem, killing eight people and injuring 50. Midstream companies that own pipelines and other midstream infrastructure face volumetric and counterparty risk as well as The utility has until Dec. 19 to disprove regulators’ allegation that higher costs of capital, raising questions about their ability to the company failed to properly install and fuse the gas pipeline. fund existing growth projects. Failure to do so could result in a protracted investigation along Conservative Income Portfolio holding Buckeye Partners LP the lines of what PG&E Corp (NYSE: PCG) experienced after a (NYSE: BPL) has held up relatively well this year, but has pulled deadly explosion in California. back to within range of our dream buy price of $50 per unit on a This distraction and expense could stall dividend growth or even few occasions. result in a punitive cut to Consolidated Edison’s allowed return Despite all the carnage in the MLP space, Buckeye Partners re- on equity. Conservative investors shouldn’t wait around to mains a reasonably safe bet for investors because of its exten- see how this story plays out; sell Consolidated Edison. sive network of petroleum product pipelines and storage facilities on the East Coast and in the Midwest. Much of the partnership’s pipelines operate under long-term contracts and involve limited Gas Distribution volumetric risk because they primarily connect to refineries, ter- minals and other downstream assets. Takeover interest from leading electric utilities has propelled gas distributors’ equity valuations to new highs, making these names Down almost 18 percent on the year and yielding 7.7 percent, better candidates for taking profits than for establishing new po- Buckeye Partners LP continues to rate a buy up to $77 per sitions. unit. Propane distributors, on the other hand, have sold off hard with In a year when even Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: the rest of the MLP space, even though most of these names EPD) has given up 36 percent of its value, investors may overlook have zero direct exposure to lower oil and gas prices.
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