GROWING THE NORTH Market opportunities for irrigated agricultural produce from northern Western Australia FINAL DISCUSSION DOCUMENT; under contract DAFWA244; November 2015 INHERENT LIMITATIONS ACCESSIBILITY This work was commissioned by the Department of Agriculture and e. any Coriolis Commentary accompanying the Coriolis document Coriolis seeks to support the widest possible audience for this Food Western Australia (DAFWA) and prepared by Coriolis. This is an integral part of interpreting the Coriolis document. research. 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Coriolis has not been asked to independently verify or audit the This Coriolis document was produced solely for the use and benefit information or material provided to it by or on behalf of the Client of DAFWA and cannot be relied on or distributed, in whole or in or any of the parties involved in the project; part, in any format by any other party. The document was completed in October 2015 and Coriolis accepts no liability for and b. the information contained in the Coriolis Document and any has not undertaken work in respect of any event subsequent to that Coriolis Commentary has been compiled from information and date which may affect the document. material supplied by third party sources and publicly available information which may (in part) be inaccurate or incomplete; Any redistribution of this document requires the prior written approval of Coriolis and in any event is to be complete and c. Coriolis makes no representation, warranty or guarantee, unaltered version of the document and accompanied only by such whether express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy, reliability, other materials as Coriolis may agree. Responsibility for the currency or completeness of the information provided in the security of any electronic distribution of this document remains the Coriolis Document and any Coriolis Commentary or that responsibility of DAFWA and Coriolis accepts no liability if the reasonable care has been taken in compiling or preparing them; document is or has been altered in any way by any person. d. the analysis contained in the Coriolis Document and any Coriolis Commentary are subject to the key assumptions, further qualifications and limitations included in the Coriolis Document and Coriolis Commentary, and are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, some of which, if not all, are outside the control of Coriolis; and 2 CONTENTS Introduction/Executive Summary 5 The Market Opportunity 11 The Three Regions of the North 19 Analysis/Conclusions 22 Supporting Material - Screen 3: Qual/Quant Product Profiles 46 - Screen 2: Quantitative trade code screen 127 - Screen 1: Climatic peer group product screen 136 - Animal feed 144 3 Why did DAFWA undertake this project? DAFWA aims to create a progressive, innovative and profitable agriculture and food sector that benefits Western Australia - in this role, they are leading a number Core questions that of irrigated agriculture development projects including Coriolis were those in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley engaged to address: What products do DAFWA recognises that there are many products that our key target could be grown successfully in the North – identifying those markets want… with strong demand that are experiencing growth in the markets of the future will ensure greater potential for … that can be success competitively produced in the In order to make the best decisions for the regions, North of Western DAFWA and stakeholders need to gain an understanding of Australia? the different agricultural options - the scale requirements and capacity needed to meet demand, what is WA’s competitive advantage and the potential for adding value 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The North of Western Australia can realise the potential of new irrigation precincts CONCLUSION 2: The North can increase agricultural production. coming on stream. However, success will require new thinking about the products Climatic peers demonstrate there are major opportunities to increase agriculture in being demanded today in the markets of the future, rather than the products of the North. A screen of these climatic peers concludes many products can be grown European immigrants of the past. in the North. Countries in a similar climatic zone, from Mozambique to Israel, are producing and exporting high value products and products to the world. If climatic Northern Western Australia currently produces limited food or agricultural peers can produce theses products, so can Western Australia. products. Irrigation projects provide an opportunity to expand production and increase exports. A number of irrigation projects are underway with the potential However, due to conditions in the North, success will depend on growing products new agrifoods exports to come online. How should Western Australia best utilise that are robust, mechanically harvested, and which thrive in the heat. Achieving this water? scale and utilising modern farm practices is critical for Western Australia to compete globally. Too often the agricultural sector is “production driven” rather than “market led.” Instead, this discussion document identifies high potential products at the CONCLUSION 3: There are a wide range of high potential options. intersection of what markets are demanding and what the North can produce. Eighteen high potential products have been identified as opportunities for irrigated agriculture in Northern Western Australia. An extensive quantitative screen and CONCLUSION 1: Markets want what the North can produce. category evaluation highlighted eighteen products with significant potential for High growth target markets in Asia and the Middle East are demanding products Northern Western Australia. A wide range of agricultural products were identified, that the North can produce. Asia and the Middle East are attractive markets to with products ranging from walnuts to cotton. These products all have a growing Western Australia. These countries are high growth markets and importing market with a wide spread of buyers and sellers. significant volumes from our climatic peers. Western Australia can compete in these markets. 5 The Western Australia Government has a wide range of projects underway to facilitate the growth of irrigation in the North ROYALTIES FOR REGIONS PROJECTS INVOLVING IRRIGATION IN THE NORTH OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA As of mid/late 2015 Region Project Key stakeholders Project type Summary Pilbara Pilbara Hinterland Local stakeholders Demonstration - Assess the potential of irrigated agriculture in the Pilbara utilising Agricultural Development Leaseholders surplus mine dewater and other in-situ water resources Initiative (PHADI) - Strong focus on practical research through pilot site trials and a comprehensive assessment of Pilbara soil and water resources Gascoyne Middle Gascoyne water Local stakeholders