spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 — January 2012 The New EU. The Consequences of the Polish EU Presidency

Cornelius Ochmann Bertelsmann Stiftung, [email protected]

A new member state is usually confronted with an anxious question when it takes over the EU Presidency for the first time. “Are they up to the job?” At the end of the Polish Presidency one can heave a sigh of relief and say that they are certainly up to the job. And, more to the point, it is something they like doing. The new is strong in economic terms, politically stable and pro-European.

no doubt due to the perseverance of the Polish

01 I mediators. This was one of the reasons why the / young Polish administration was seen in a posi- The Presidency meets tive light. A new member state is usually con- the challenges fronted with an anxious question when it takes over the EU Presidency for the first time. “Are

2012 # How could a non-euro country steer the Eu- they up to the job?” The Poles were certainly ropean Union through the most serious crisis up to the job, and, more to the point, it was that the latter has ever had to face? That was something they liked doing. It meant more to the crucial question being asked at the start them than policymaking and bureaucracy. The of the Polish Presidency. In retrospect it is parliamentary elections in the middle of the clear that the Poles made a virtue of necessity Presidency returned the governing coalition to by adopting the role of mediator between eu- power and showed that Poland was internally rozone countries and non-eurozone countries. stable and a pro-European country. The fact that the “Six-pack,” which is one of the accords that is supposed to bring about greater Croatia, Belarus and loomed large in fiscal discipline and economic coordination, the area of foreign policy. Thus the EU and became a joint EU decision and not merely an Croatia have brought the accession process

spotlight europe spotlight agreement restricted to the eurozone states is to a successful conclusion. On the other hand, spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 Poland and the new EU Within the enlarged EU the Polish Presidency Presidency Polish the EU enlarged the Within The The van Rompuy/Tusk tandem and the Ashton/ of and EU the of representatives highest The The decision to establish a European founda European a establish to decision The its consequences its 2 The Euro crisis and and crisis Euro The Critics have pointed out that it proved impos proved it that out pointed have Critics Bulgaria and Romania.Bulgaria EU Here the Presidency EU member states in general and the Baltic Baltic the and general in states member EU Endowment for Democracy, which was taken at professionalism. have made a deal regard with great of progress has accelerated the convergence process. The process. convergence the accelerated has have been completed, but it has not as yet been Sikorski duo did not give rise to a great deal deal great a to rise give not did duo Sikorski internal states still do not have a great deal of of deal great a have not do still states internal in in 2008–9 economic the The during crisis. new in the economy, and have returned to the path path the to economy,returned have and the in by hard hit were which particular, in republics initialled. Everything depends on the political political the on depends Everything initialled. agreement association new a on negotiations to the security of the EU’s external borders, the states member EU new the that say to true smoothly. rather cooperated Presidency the the the . This was already apparent of realities the reflects longer no east new the to weather the storm toand plunge a the double-digit weather managed have 2008–9, in crisis financial the the absence of friction and/or to a levelhigh of and/or of friction absence the certainly Council, EU the of meeting final the tion for the support of democracy, the European out the what unclear is it and difficult, be to to Poles. the The continues situation in Belarus lot a means which Partnership, Eastern the to has there been little or no with regard progress confidence in them, and this mistrust is fre is populists. exacerbated by quently right-wing mistrust this and them, in confidence be would it Whilst limits. its reached clearly erstwhile division between the old west and and west old the between division erstwhile of speculation, which may have been due to to due been have may which speculation, of surprise. positive a as came development in the country. the developmentin The Ukraine. of true is same The be. will come of growth. of sible to extend the Schengen Area to cover cover to Area Schengen the extend to sible - - - -

All the others are waiting for the stabilization stabilization the for waiting are others the All yet said when it will join the eurozone, leading leading eurozone, the join will it yet when said we exclude Cyprus and Malta), only Slovenia, Slovenia, only Malta), and Cyprus exclude we Polish politicians have made it clear that it in it that clear it made have politicians Polish out come which has country only the Polandis positive levels of growth. positive However,levels of growth. state of this Slovakia and Estonia have joined the eurozone. eurozone. the haveEstoniajoined and Slovakia it comes to the new EU member states (and if if (and states member EU new the to comes it no longer a desire great to join the eurozone. In ing months will show what kind of role Poland role of kind showwhat will months ing ternal EU reforms. Although Poland has not not has Poland Although reforms. EU ternal the perceive experts many crisis current the tends to adopt the common currency. The com The currency. common the adopt to tends advantages of flexible exchange rates. When When rates. exchange flexible of advantages is there which in situation a to led has affairs of the euro and the implementation of the in the of implementation the and euro the of of the recent economic and financial crisis with in %ofBIP Public debt in %ofBIP Budget deficit in %, Annual inflationr Country Profile Sources: in %, GDP componentsbysector Eurobarometer onP „In gener Positive positiv fisheries Agriculture, forestryand Manufacturing sector Services 2011 2010 EuropeanCommission, Eurostat, , 2010 , 2010 Po e, 42 al neut W , ARSA does the EU conjure up for you a very positive land ra ate l, W , January fairly negative or very negative image?“ Neutr oland al in %, 49 Unemployment r 2012 12 GUS / Poland 2011 54.9 31.7 64.7 -7.8 4.5 3.5 GDP Negative P opulation in billionsof€, ate 9 © BertelsmannStiftung in millions 11 / 2011 2011 , fairly 363.6 38.15 10 % Limit 1.8

60 -3 - - - spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 Poland and the new EU After the confusion of the Kaczynski period, period, Kaczynski the of confusion the After Tusk has convinced the EU that Poland is now is Poland that EU the convinced Tusk has the of course the in accrued that prestige The veys show that many Poles would like to see see to like would Poles many that show veys to opportunity excellent an with Poland vides not an is (Denmark Presidency ver,Danish the were given the go-ahead at the last EU summit summit at last EU the go-ahead were the given (which caps public debt at 55 at debt public caps (which 3 Can the the Can Triangle Poland’s FutureRole Poland’s become the new EU engine? EU new the become and . In order to attain this this attain to order In France. and Germany Polish Presidency should be utilized in the the in utilized be should Presidency Polish EU and a stable euro have materialized. And And materialized. have euro stable a and EU goal Poland will haveemphasize todetermi its Polandwill goal government at the parliamentary elections elections parliamentary the at government gic question arises. Can Poland team up with with up team Poland Can arises. question gic prosperous country that inserted a debt brake brake debt a inserted that country prosperous ic Bian a dlbrtl coe t re to chosen deliberately has Britain Since making a positive contribution. Electoral sur Electoral contribution. positive a making pro This framework. legal of kind some into 2011December in incorporated havebe to will nation to join the eurozone as soon as the new the as soon as eurozone the join to nation stance. pro-European its 2011 was October in Tusk the re-elected voters Polish why reasons main the of One ago. decade a constitution its intergovernmental new the on negotiations their country playing the same kind of role as as role of kind same the playing country their this would demonstrate that it is indeed capa indeed is it that demonstrate would this Moreo budget. EU forthcoming the and treaty h Fac-emn u, n cn oad as Poland can and duo, Franco-German the strate a EU, new the in sidelines the to treat a eurozone country) will show a eurozonewill howcountry) and to what ble of playing a leadership a ble role.of playing by the fiscal union. fiscal bythe be be dealt in with the reforms that lie ahead. And demonstrate that it is a politically stable and and stable politically a is it that demonstrate option seems feasible on account of Poland’s Poland’s of account on feasible seems option can play in the new EU that will be dominated dominated be will that EU new the in play can during the Danish Presidency the reforms that that reforms Presidency the Danish the during can EU the of rest the and countries eurozone the between relationship difficult the extent sume a leadership role within the EU? This This EU? the within role leadership a sume II

% of GDP) into into GDP) of %

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“Merkozy” duohave will to a find new European 21 will not its position make presi beforeclear the will working out viable compromises. However, if if However, compromises. viable out working Ukraine and Russia. In the course of the Polish of the course the In Russia. and Ukraine Polish trio could do the strategic planning and and planning strategic the do could trio Polish EU with the requisite leadership, though even though leadership, requisite the with EU Presidency the Franco-Polish relationship be relationship Franco-Polish the Presidency Komorowski attempted to breathe new life life new breathe to attempted Komorowski In 2011 celebrations marked the twentieth twentieth the marked celebrations 2011 In lukewarm at best. However, in recent years years recent in However, best. at lukewarm greater Polish involvement in the leadership of leadership the involvement Polish in greater that fact the of account on deteriorate to gan lor Merkel and President Sarkozy to a summit summit a to Sarkozy President and Merkel lor growing competitiveness of the Polish econo Polish the of competitiveness growing process. Yet a triangle clearly has three sides, sides, three has clearly triangle a Yet process. pro-European stance of the electorate, and the the and electorate, the of stance pro-European So far the “Merkozy” duo has provided the the provided has duo “Merkozy” the far So will elections these that believe people Some Sarkozy’s plans for saving the euro extended extended euro the saving for plans Sarkozy’s managementinitiatives. irreconcilable. In the EU the In irreconcilable. man engine is strong enough whentocomesit enough strong is engine man about keen very been never has France many, from counterparts their and ministers foreign it has not played a pivotal role in the ongoing ongoing the in role pivotal a played not has it ments decided to deepen German-Polish coop German-Polish deepen to decided ments into the Weimar Triangle by inviting Chancel inviting by Triangle Weimar the into meeting in . in meeting 2011 President of Polish beginning the my.At agendas of current political life and of crisis crisis of and life political current of agendas the establishment of its new EMS safety net. net. safety EMS new its of establishment the there is growing pressure within the EU, the the EU, the within pressure growing is there have crisis euro the shown Franco-Ger that the attempts toovercome the EU. Furthermore, the three the by launched those including tives, initia policy foreign several been have there a year ago their personal differences seemed seemed differences personal their ago year a been have reactions French the hitherto and this into Triangle Weimar the integrate to and anniversary of the Weimar Triangle. However, Triangle. Weimar the of anniversary determine the policy areas, the issues and the the and issues the areas, policy the determine decide the fate of the EU, for they overlap with overlapwith they forEU, the of fate the decide of 2012. summer the electionsdential in excluded otherthe EU states. contrast toIn Ger and eurozone, the of members 17 the to only efforts to reform the EU. At a joint meeting on meeting joint a At EU. the reform to efforts eration in the area of European policymaking policymaking European of area the in eration economic strength and political stability, the the stability, political and strength economic supporter. But when all is said and done, done,Paris and said is all supporter.whenBut st June 2011 the German and Polish govern Polish and German 2011the June

28 a Franco-German- a 28 ------

spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 Poland and the new EU Third, the government’s strategy on monetary monetary on strategy government’s the Third, and financial crisis financial and which will continue indefinitely. The opening opening The indefinitely. continue will which was the flexible labour market, which enabled enabled which market, labour flexible the was which will have a profound effect on the educa the on effect have whichwill profound a 4 were born at that time are now entering the the entering now are time that at born were Poland and the economic economic the and Poland Finally, over the next decade Poland will have will Poland decade next the Finally,over Poland’s growing influence in Europe is due to due is Europe in influence Poland’sgrowing large, and the catch-up process has not as yet as not has process catch-up the and large, labour market is becoming less flexible. Fur flexible. less becoming is market labour labour labour market. This and labour mean migration past does not is mean this a that state of affairs policies espoused by the Polish banks. by espoused the policies has developed in a positive way in the recent recent the in way positive a in developed has helped Poland to modernize its outdated infra outdated its modernize to Poland helped Second, the Polish internal market is quite quite is market internal Polish the Second, its its positive economic development and its polit migration, and this suggests that the Polish Polish the that suggests this and migration, lending conservative the was this for reason midst the in economy Polish the of resilience the for reasons several are stability. There ical introduced important measures such as the the as such measures important introduced up for by domestic demand. And then there there then And demand. domestic by for up the EU financial transfers came in useful and and useful in came transfers financial EU the Polishmarket, capital the unlikea fact that the is it First, importance. relative their assessing thermore, the Tusk government has not as yet as not has government Tusk the thermore, to meet the challenges of demographic change, demographic of challenges the meetto sector. agricultural the Moreover, success. a was policy currency and manner. pragmatic a tional sector and the labour market. The baby The market. labour the and sector tional that Poland in the years ahead will be confront years will ahead Poland in the that a period with low birth rates, and those who who those and rates, birth low with period a boom of 1980's was followed in the 1990's by1990's the in followed was 1980's of boom f h Gra lbu mre i My 2011 labour May in increase in noticeable a to lead not market did labour German the of in drop exports the during the 2008–2009 crisis was made reason this For end. an to come The stable. remained markets, European other ways are different there of though crisis, of the of the pension and health insurance system in in system insurance health and pension the of in situation changed the to react to companies ed with a lack of skilled workers. lack skilled a of with ed structure. However, the fact that the situation situation the that fact However,the structure. stabilization of public finances, or the reform reform the or finances, public of stabilization - - - - -

“Merkozy” have come to understand that they they that understand to come have “Merkozy” Virtually all of the stadiums have been com been have stadiums the of all Virtually The modernization drive in Poland is in full full in is Poland in drive modernization The Conclusions Ukrainians Ukrainians will enable tothem make up for the Part of this process is the convergence of po of convergence the is process this of Part months twelve past the of course the In European internal European market.internal In contextthis trade steady the It mentioning increase is also worth pionship in the summer of 2012, which is is which 2012, of summer the in pionship zation of the Polish economy is directly linked directly is economy Polish the of zation pleted, but the same cannot be said of the the of said be cannot same the but pleted, in the EU continues to forge ahead unabated. unabated. ahead forge to continues EU the in is markets, the by exerted pressure massive new The manner. fundamentalist less or more need each other. This is a reflection of the fact the of reflection a is other.This each need all this is that the convergence process with process convergence the that is this all over to need the is issue at is what analysis important. Since Poland became a member of of member a became Poland Since important. the within exports and imports Polish in tance than the personalities and predilections predilections and personalities the than tance inter vested a have France and Germany that infrastructure infrastructure deficiencies. Over and above this whether seen be to remains It infrastructure. tant eastern trading partner, and the moderni the and partner, trading eastern tant impor most Germany’s become has it EU the the benefits of Europeanization. Europeanization. of benefits the reaping are states both of economies shows the that This exports. German in boom the to o e isd Te uoen otal Cham Football European The missed. be to the success or otherwise of success the Polishor the otherwise economy and Poles the of talent organizational the between Germany and Poland is especially especially is Poland and Germany between become part of the global division of labour. labour. of division global the of part become being staged jointly with Ukraine, will show will in Ukraine, stagedwith jointly being come the weaknesses of EMU. The upshot of upshot The EMU. of weaknesses the come final the In coordination. AND consolidation of result a as partly about came which creed, of their leading politicians. politicians. leading oftheir impor greater far of is this and EU, the in est depends on whether or not it manages to to manages it not or whether on depends iin ta hd rvosy en ttd n a in stated been previously had that sitions symbolic terms what has been achieved so far. so achieved been has what terms symbolic swing. It constitutes an opportunity that is not is that opportunity an constitutes It swing. III ------

spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 Poland and the new EU Where does Poland stand with regard to this this to regard with stand Poland does Where Today, now that debt relief for Greece is immi is Greece for relief debt Today, that now 5 On several occasions in the recent past Poland past recent the in occasions several On Pres French the with than Chancellor German has a closer relationship with the the with closerrelationship a Tusk Donald has process? On the one hand the country is doing doing is country the onehand the On process? past ten years France has not has France implementedpast ten years the hand further reforms are necessary in order order in necessary are reforms further hand hard Schröder’s chancellorship. These includ These chancellorship. Schröder’s hard mersed in an ongoing transformation process. process. transformation ongoing an in mersed closer is economy Polish the Moreover, ident. Minister Prime Polish Poland. in reform nomic that fact the remembers anyone hardly nent, other the On terms. economic in well rather reforms which Germany adopted during Ger during adopted Germany which reforms to the German economy than to the French French the to than economy German the to US than twenty years ago debt relief toamounting more future. sustainable have a itwill that ensure to and Germany have been called upon to demonto upon called been have Germany and economy. For Poland years twenty has been im changes in the health insurance system, and and system, insurance health expenditure, the in changes government in reduction a ed strate political and economic solidarity. Over the Sources: in billionsof€ V January Statistics oninternationaltr ne The olume oftr EuropeanCommission, Eurostat, –

December $ 20 billion formed the basis for eco for basis the formed billion 20 $ ade w w We 2010 7.60 imar Tr imar GUS 86.85 ade betweenP 5.99 iangle oland, ? 37.70 theEU ------

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99.78 , GermanyandFr A symbol of Poland’s transformation was the the was transformation Poland’s of symbol A 2011. It was noteworthy because he called called he because noteworthy was It 2011. years years ago, when Sarkozy became president. His Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on 28 on Sikorski Radoslaw Minister playwill a more important role in the European Union. The fact that it inserted a debt brake in in brake debt a inserted it that fact The Union. Germany and other EU states are hoping to to hoping are states EU other and Germany pletion of process,the EU there restructuring is member states are concerned. And they EU suggest other the as far as important increasingly factors mean that Poland’s experiences relating conclusion.These foregone a not is re-election introduce this important economic policy policy economic future. near the in instrument important this introduce itself. for speaks ago years ten constitution its that it is possible to learn from Poland. After the becoming are reforms of introduction the to security social IV ofHartz the introduction the a growing likelihood that in the future Poland future the in that likelihood growing a on Germany to take the lead in Europe and and Europe in lead the take to Germany on speech (see link) given in by Foreign Foreign by Berlin in given link) (see speech com the and Presidency Polish the of success system. The reforms began in earnest only four 29.49 ance 89.42 in billionsof€ V DE PL PL PL olume of – – – – FR EU FR DE EU 27 Fr German P : : : : oland ance 150.10 189.19 Tr © BertelsmannStiftung 13.59 67.19 ade th y November November -

spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 Poland and the new EU with the Hitler-Stalin Pact. The PolishThe Pact. example Hitler-Stalin the with ISSN 1865-7451 ISSN Tel.5241 +49 81 81421 [email protected] Fritz-Vannahme Joachim Tel.5241 +49 81 81313 [email protected] Hoffmann Isabell www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de D-33311Gütersloh Straße 256 CarlBertelsmann Stiftung Bertelsmann Responsible: 5–6 Sebastian: Plociennik, http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/aktuell/2011A31_lng_swd_ks.pdf Schwarzer, Kai-Olaf; Lang, Daniela: prezydencja.html http://wyborcza.pl/prezydencja2011/1,111800,10878900,Kapital_o_nazwie_ Agnieszka: Lada, http://www.sieps.se/en/publikationer/polish-council-presidency-2011-ambitions-and-limitations-20113op Maciej: Piotr Kaczynski, Reading: Further 6 inEnglish: http://pl2011.eu/content/premier-donald-tusk-podsumowal-polska-prezydencje Tusk EP im Donald Premierministers polnischen des Rede http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/debatte/article13742469/Deutschland-muss-staerker-fuehren.html Berlin in Sikorski Radoslaw Außenminister polnischen des Rede Vetter,Reinhold: http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/cps/rde/xchg/SID-CC04FAED-CFC79EE3/bst/hs.xsl/106005_106128.htm power less than German inactivity. This was was This inactivity. German than less power Sikorski had compared Russo-German coopera Sikorski had compared Russo-German ing the competitiveness of the member states. states. member the of competitiveness the ing tion and the construction of the Baltic pipeline Baltic the of construction the and tion 2006 as recently as for U-turn, remarkable a the EU and reforms related to the euro, the is the euro, the to related reforms and EU the because he said that Poland feared German German feared Poland that said he because solidarity in Europe. And it is about enhanc about is it And Europe. in solidarity and trust about primarily is It debt. sovereign of question the instance first the in not is sue shows that when it comes to reforms within within reforms to comes it when that shows

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Mai–Juni 2011 Mai–Juni http://pl2011.eu/en/content/14th-december-2011-strasbourg-european-parliament Drogocenny kapital o nazwie prezydencja, in: 28.12.2011 in: Wyborcza Gazeta prezydencja, nazwie o kapital Drogocenny Zweite Chance für Tusk. Die Parlamentswahlen in Polen, in: Osteuropa 11/2011 in: inPolen, Osteuropa Chance Zweite fürTusk. Parlamentswahlen Die Resistent und reaktionsschnell. Polen in der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise, in: Osteuropa in: Osteuropa Wirtschaftskrise, Finanz- und inder Polen reaktionsschnell. und Resistent Polish Council Presidency 2011: Council Polish Presidency Limitations and Ambitions Das Weimarer Dreieck jetzt stärken und nutzen, SWP-Aktuell 31 Weimarer Das SWP-Aktuell nutzen, und Dreieck stärken jetzt - - -

Solidarity and assistance are a sine qua non, non, qua sine a are assistance and Solidarity the word “solidarity” would not have quite the the quite havenot would “solidarity” word the institutions the affects that trust of crisis a all but in the final analysis one’s own efforts are are efforts one’sown analysis final the in but country, and without a Polish EU Presidency Presidency EU Polish a without and country, prosperous a be now not would Poland darity soli European and EU the Withoutproblem. of example of kind how this deal Europe with can outstanding an is years twenty past the over Poland of development The eurozone. the of of decisive The importance. euro is crisis above same meaning. same www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/spotlight from: downloaded be can editions europe spotlight All Vehrkamp B. Robert Trap Eurozone Who’sInsolvency The inan next? europe spotlight Bauer Michael and Hanelt Christian Repression and Revolution between Poised World Arab The europe spotlight Hoffmann Sarah and Fischer Thomas Dimension? Social the about is what And Governance: Economic European europe spotlight editions: Latest am 14.12.2011 am 29.11.2011 (Auszüge)

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