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The New EU. the Consequences of the Polish EU Presidency Spotlight spotlight europe # 2012 / 01 — January 2012 The New EU. The Consequences of the Polish EU Presidency Cornelius Ochmann Bertelsmann Stiftung, [email protected] A new member state is usually confronted with an anxious question when it takes over the EU Presidency for the first time. “Are they up to the job?” At the end of the Polish Presidency one can heave a sigh of relief and say that they are certainly up to the job. And, more to the point, it is something they like doing. The new Poland is strong in economic terms, politically stable and pro-European. no doubt due to the perseverance of the Polish 01 I mediators. This was one of the reasons why the / young Polish administration was seen in a posi- The Presidency meets tive light. A new member state is usually con- the challenges fronted with an anxious question when it takes over the EU Presidency for the first time. “Are # 2012 # How could a non-euro country steer the Eu- they up to the job?” The Poles were certainly ropean Union through the most serious crisis up to the job, and, more to the point, it was that the latter has ever had to face? That was something they liked doing. It meant more to the crucial question being asked at the start them than policymaking and bureaucracy. The of the Polish Presidency. In retrospect it is parliamentary elections in the middle of the clear that the Poles made a virtue of necessity Presidency returned the governing coalition to by adopting the role of mediator between eu- power and showed that Poland was internally rozone countries and non-eurozone countries. stable and a pro-European country. The fact that the “Six-pack,” which is one of the accords that is supposed to bring about greater Croatia, Belarus and Ukraine loomed large in fiscal discipline and economic coordination, the area of foreign policy. Thus the EU and became a joint EU decision and not merely an Croatia have brought the accession process spotlight europe spotlight agreement restricted to the eurozone states is to a successful conclusion. On the other hand, 2 there has been little or no progress with regard to the Eastern Partnership, which means a lot Poland to the Poles. The situation in Belarus continues Country Profile, January 2012 to be difficult, and it is unclear what the out- come will be. The same is true of Ukraine. The Population in millions 38.15 negotiations on a new association agreement GDP in billions of €, 2011 363.6 have been completed, but it has not as yet been WARSAW Unemployment rate 11/2011 10 % initialled. Everything depends on the political development in the country. Poland Limit The decision to establish a European founda- Annual inflation rate 4.5 1.8 tion for the support of democracy, the European in %, 2011 Endowment for Democracy, which was taken at the final meeting of the EU Council, certainly Budget deficit -3 in % of BIP, 2010 -7.8 came as a positive surprise. Public debt 54.9 60 The highest representatives of the EU and of in % of BIP, 2010 the Presidency cooperated rather smoothly. The van Rompuy/Tusk tandem and the Ashton/ GDP components by sector Sikorski duo did not give rise to a great deal in %, 2010 of speculation, which may have been due to Services 64.7 Manufacturing sector 31.7 the absence of friction and/or to a high level of Agriculture, forestry and 3.5 professionalism. fisheries Critics have pointed out that it proved impos- Eurobarometer on Poland in %, 12/2011 sible to extend the Schengen Area to cover „In general, does the EU conjure up for you a very positive, fairly Bulgaria and Romania. Here the EU Presidency positive, neutral, fairly negative or very negative image?“ clearly reached its limits. Whilst it would be true to say that the new EU member states have made a great deal of progress with regard to the security of the EU’s external borders, the Positive 42 Neutral 49 Negative 9 Poland and the new EU internal states still do not have a great deal of confidence in them, and this mistrust is fre- Sources: European Commission, Eurostat, GUS © Bertelsmann Stiftung quently exacerbated by right-wing populists. 01 / Poland is the only country which has come out The Euro crisis and of the recent economic and financial crisis with positive levels of growth. However, this state of its consequences affairs has led to a situation in which there is # 2012 # no longer a great desire to join the eurozone. In Within the enlarged EU the Polish Presidency the current crisis many experts perceive the has accelerated the convergence process. The advantages of flexible exchange rates. When erstwhile division between the old west and it comes to the new EU member states (and if the new east no longer reflects the realities of we exclude Cyprus and Malta), only Slovenia, the European Union. This was already apparent Slovakia and Estonia have joined the eurozone. in 2008–9 during the economic crisis. The new All the others are waiting for the stabilization EU member states in general and the Baltic of the euro and the implementation of the in- republics in particular, which were hit hard by ternal EU reforms. Although Poland has not the financial crisis in 2008–9, have managed yet said when it will join the eurozone, leading to weather the storm and a double-digit plunge Polish politicians have made it clear that it in- in the economy, and have returned to the path tends to adopt the common currency. The com- spotlight europe spotlight of growth. ing months will show what kind of role Poland 3 can play in the new EU that will be dominated economic strength and political stability, the by the fiscal union. pro-European stance of the electorate, and the growing competitiveness of the Polish econo- my. At the beginning of 2011 Polish President II Komorowski attempted to breathe new life into the Weimar Triangle by inviting Chancel- Poland’s Future Role lor Merkel and President Sarkozy to a summit meeting in Warsaw. The prestige that accrued in the course of the Polish Presidency should be utilized in the In 2011 celebrations marked the twentieth negotiations on the new intergovernmental anniversary of the Weimar Triangle. However, treaty and the forthcoming EU budget. Moreo- it has not played a pivotal role in the ongoing ver, the Danish Presidency (Denmark is not an efforts to reform the EU. At a joint meeting on a eurozone country) will show how and to what 21st June 2011 the German and Polish govern- extent the difficult relationship between the ments decided to deepen German-Polish coop- eurozone countries and the rest of the EU can eration in the area of European policymaking be dealt with in the reforms that lie ahead. And and to integrate the Weimar Triangle into this during the Danish Presidency the reforms that process. Yet a triangle clearly has three sides, were given the go-ahead at the last EU summit and hitherto the French reactions have been in December 2011 will have to be incorporated lukewarm at best. However, in recent years into some kind of legal framework. This pro- there have been several foreign policy initia- vides Poland with an excellent opportunity to tives, including those launched by the three demonstrate that it is a politically stable and foreign ministers and their counterparts from prosperous country that inserted a debt brake Ukraine and Russia. In the course of the Polish (which caps public debt at 55 % of GDP) into Presidency the Franco-Polish relationship be- its constitution a decade ago. One of the main gan to deteriorate on account of the fact that reasons why Polish voters re-elected the Tusk Sarkozy’s plans for saving the euro extended government at the parliamentary elections only to the 17 members of the eurozone, and in October 2011 was its pro-European stance. excluded the other EU states. In contrast to Ger- After the confusion of the Kaczynski period, many, France has never been very keen about Tusk has convinced the EU that Poland is now greater Polish involvement in the leadership of Poland and the new EU making a positive contribution. Electoral sur- the EU. Furthermore, the attempts to overcome veys show that many Poles would like to see the euro crisis have shown that the Franco-Ger- their country playing the same kind of role as man engine is strong enough when it comes to 01 Germany and France. In order to attain this working out viable compromises. However, if / goal Poland will have to emphasize its determi- there is growing pressure within the EU, the nation to join the eurozone as soon as the new “Merkozy” duo will have to find a new European EU and a stable euro have materialized. And supporter. But when all is said and done, Paris this would demonstrate that it is indeed capa- will not make its position clear before the presi- # 2012 # ble of playing a leadership role. dential elections in the summer of 2012. Some people believe that these elections will Can the Weimar Triangle decide the fate of the EU, for they overlap with the establishment of its new EMS safety net. become the new EU engine? So far the “Merkozy” duo has provided the EU with the requisite leadership, though even Since Britain has deliberately chosen to re- a year ago their personal differences seemed treat to the sidelines in the new EU, a strate- irreconcilable.
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