State of the World 1986. a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

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ED 268 037 SO 017 024 AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; And Others TITLE State of the World 1986. A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. PUB DATE 86 NOTE 278p. AVAILABLE FROMWorldwatch Institute, 1776 MassachusettsAvenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036. PUB TYPE Reports - Descriptive (141)-- Viewpoints (120)

EDES PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Availablefrom EDRS. DESCRIPTORS Agricultural Trends; *Developed Nations;Developing Nations; Disarmament; *EcologicalFactors; Ecology; *Economic Development; *Economics;*Energy Conservation; Environmental Standards;Food; Foreign Policy; Health Needs; InternationalCooperation; *International Trade; Loan Repayment;National Security; Nuclear Warfare; PetroleumIndustry; Population Trends; Power Technology;Water Resources; *World Affairs IDENTIFIERS Africa; Food Production; Ideology;Interdependence ABSTRACT The third of three annual assessmentsconcentrating on the relationship between the worldeconomy and its environmental support systems, this edition expands earlierthemes on how economic demands of a world population approaching5 billion affects the earth's natural systems andresources to embrace threats to security as well. The first of 11 sections, "A Generation ofDeficits" (Lester R. Brown) examines not only deficits andd.bts in the United States, but in other countries as well. In section2, "Assessing Ecological Decline," Lester R. Brown and EdwardC. Wolf discuss profiles and social consequences of ecological decline,economic costs, "political fallout," and the need for integrated analysis.Next, in "Increasing Water Efficiency," Sandra Postel describeswater-saving irrigation methods, new cropping patterns, recyclingand reuse, conservation in cities, and balancing the water equation.The next section, "Managing Rangelands," (Edward C. Wolf) is followedby two articles, "Moving beyond Oil," and "Reforming the ElectricPocrer Industry" by Christopher Flavin. Section 7, "DecommissioningNuclear Power Plants," (Cynthia Pollock) addressesissues concerning decontamination and dismantlement,waste disposal, and cost. Two health articles: "BanishingTobacco," and "Investing in Children,"by William U. Chandlerare followed by a look at "Africa's Decline," (Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf).In the final section, "Redefining National Security," LesterR. Brown addresses new threats to security, militarization of theworld economy, costs to the two super-powers, countries reducing arms outlays, andchallenges to world peace. (LH)

*********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS * * are the best that can be made from the original document. * *********************************************************************** Other Norton/Worldwatch Books

Lester R. Brown / The Twenty-Ninth Day: Accommodating Human Needs and Numbers to the Earth's Resources Lester R. Brown / Building a Sustainable Society Lester R. Brown et al. / State of the World-1984 and 1985 Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Colin Norman / Running on Empty: The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World Daniel Deudney and Christopher Flavin / Renewable Energy: The Power to Choose Erik P. Eckholm / Losing Ground: Environmental Stress and World Food Prospects Erik P. Eckholm / The Picture of Health: Environmental Sources of Disease Denis Hayes / Rays of Hope: The Transition to a Post-Petroleum World Kathleen Newland / The Sisterhood of Man Colin Norman / The God That Limps: Science and Technology in the Eighties Bruce Stokes / Heaping Ourselves: Local Solutions to Global Problems

3 it STATE OF THE WORLD 1986 A Worldwatch Institute Reporton Progress TowardaSustainable Scciety

PROJECT DIRECTOR Lester R. Brown ASSOCIATE PROJECT DIRECTOR Edward C Wolf EDITOR Linda Starke SENIOR RESEARCHERS Lester R. Brown William U. Chandler Christopher Flavin Sandra Postel Edward CWolf P ESEARCHER Cynthia Pollock WWNORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON

4 Copyright © 1986 by the Woridwatch Institute All rights reserved. Published simultaneously in Canada by Penguin Books Canada Ltd, 2801 John Street, Markham, Ontario L3R 1B4 Printed in the United States of America.

The text of this book is composed in Baskerville, with display type set in Caslon. Composition and Manufacturing by The Haddon Craftsmen, Inc.

First Edition

ISBN 0-393-02260-9 ISBN 0-393-30255-5 {PBK} W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., 37 Great Russell Street, London WCIB SNU

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 5 WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Orville L. Freeman, Chairman Mahbub ul Haq UNITED STATES PAKISTAN Andrew E. Rice, Vice Chairman Hazel Henderson UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio) Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Charles M. Cargille Abd-El Rahman Khane UNITED STATES ALGERIA Carlo M. Cipolla Larry Minear ITALY UNITED STATES Edward S. Cornish Walter Orr Roberts UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lynne Gallagher Rafael M. Salas UNITED STATES PHILIPPINES

WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF Robin Cell Blondeen Gravely Pamela Berkeley Jodi Jacobson Colleen Bickman Jodi Johnson Brian Brown Susan Norris Les:er R. Brown Cynthia Pollock William U. Chandler Sandra Postel Christopher Flavin Edward C. Wolf

OFFICERS Lester R. Brown Blondeen Gravely PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT Felix Gorrell Timothy Atkeson TREASURER GENERAL COUNSEL

6 Acknoldedgments

Although State of the World 1986 is con- following for their generous assistance cerned with the ominous implications of and thoughtful reviews of chapter drafts debts of various kinds, it is a pleasure to at various stages of maturity: Ray Ander- begin by acknowledging our own debts son, Edward Ayensu, Leonard Berry, to the many people who have made he Douglas R. Bohi, Robert A. Bohm, Rob- book possible. We are especially grated ertBrowne, Frank Cardile,Luther to Rockefeller Brothers Fund Presideu, Carter, Duane Chapman, Michael Dow, William Dietel for his untiring efforts on Charles K. Ebinger, Mohamed El-Ashry, behalf of this series. The Rockefeller Henry Elwell, Norbert Engel, Peter Brothers Fund, David Rockefeller, and Erickson, Carl Feldman, Andrea Fella, the Winthrop Rockefeller Trust pro- HowardGeller,RobertGoodland, vided the initial three-year funding that Kenneth Hare, Linda Harrar, Hans launched the State of the World series. Hurni, Judith Jacobsen, Marvin Jensen, State of the World also draws on ongoing Karl Kronebusch, Jeffrey Lewis, John H. research funded by the Geraldine R. Lichtblau,PhilipMetzger,Norman Dodge, William and Flora Hewlett, Edna Myers,FarrokhNajmabadi,Sharon McConnell Clark, Andrew E. Mellon, Nicholson, Donald A. Norman, Rick and r 'ward John Noble Foundations Piltz, David Pimentel, Bob Pollard, R.T. and tilt. United Nations Fund for Popula- Ravenholt, James L. Repace, R. Neil tion Activities. Sampson, Allan Savory, Stephen H. Severalindividuals des, (vespecial Schneider, Saidi Shomari, J. Shukla, S. recognition for their assistance. Orville FredSinger,JyotiSingh,Maurice L. Freeman, Chairman of the World- Strong,Theodore Taylor,Bassirou watch Board of Directors, strongly sup- Toure, J.A.N. Wallis, Charles E. Weiss, ported the concept of an annual assess- Lee Wilson, and Phyllis Windle. The au- ment from the beginning. Iva Ashner, thors, of course, accept responsibility for who anchors our relationship with W.W. any errors that remain. Norton, has always been a delight to Capable and creative research assist- work with. And, Marasia, who manages ance make an author's task immeasurably the printing of State of iAe World at Nor- easier. The authors owe special thanks to ton, puts us on the fast track, producing Angela Coyle (Chapters 8 and 10), Mar- printed copies within weeks of receiving ion Guyer (Chapter 9), Jodi Jacobson the word processing disks. (Chapters 1, 2, and 11), and Cynthia Pol- A book encompassing so many topics lock (Chapters 3, 5, and 6), who did much is necessarily an amalgam of many per- more than gather research materials; spectives and opinions. While acknowl- their many contributions and comments edging an intellectual debt to many oth- proved centraltotheanalytic work ers,the authors especially thank the throu;nout State of the World. (viii) Acinowledgnzents As editor and production coordinator, whileeditingtheregularseriesof Linda Starke managed to distill consist- Worldwatch Papers.Brian Brown ency and unity from the work of six au- managed the countless office tasks that thors. Making the simultaneous stylistic, kept information flowinr smoothly, du- graphic, and logistical decisions that ties that did not stop him from placing allow accelerated production of State of fifth in the U.S. National Whitewater the World, Linda drew on skills befitting Kayak Championships. an air traffic controller. Readers and au- Worldwatch Vice President Blondeen thors both share a debt to her literary Gravely and Treasurer Felix Gorrell and aesthetic judgments. In addition, provide the administrative and financial Bart Brown provided a thorough index leadership that makes ali our work that en;lances the book's usefulness as a easier. Along with the guidance of our reference. Board of Directors, Blondeen's skillful State of the World could not be pro- management frees the research staff to duced at all, let alone each year, with- pursue the standards of quality and inde- out the talented and spirited World- pendence that we hope distinguish State watch Institute staff. Pamela Berkeley, of the World. Jodi Johnson, and Susan Norris han- Production of this year's book was dled a flood of drafts and revisions with punctuated in mid-October by the ar- grace and humor. Colleen Birkman, rival of Trace William Norris, born to with help from Susan and Jodi, coor- Susan and Bob Norris. He reminded us dinated a publication sales and market- all of the timeless human notion that the ing effort that would mak Japanese next generation deserves nothing less managers envious. David Macgregor, than our very best care and commit- now with the World Resources Insti- ment. We wish Trace well. tute,designed an international out- reach strategy for State of the World, Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf

8 Contents

Acknowledgments vii THE FABRIC UNRAVELS List of Tables and Figures xi REGENERATING THE RANGE Foreword xv 5 Moving Beyond Oil, by Christopher 1 A Generation of Deficits, by Lester R. Flavin 78 Brown 3 A REDUCED DEPENDENCE ON OIL DEFICI IC AND DEBT AN EFFICIENCY SUCCESS STORY ECOLOGICAL DEFICITS THE CHANGING MIX REDUCING OIL DEFICITS THE LIMITS TO WORLD OIL DIVERGING FOOD SECURITY TRENDS LESSONS OF THE PAST DECADE IDEOLOGY AND AGRICULTURE RETIRING OUR DEBTS 6 Reforming the Electric PowerIn- dustry, by ChrLtipher Flavin 2 Assessing EcologicalDecline, by 98 Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf ELECTRICITY IN TRANSITION 22 MANAGING ELECTRICITY'S GROWTH PROFILES OF ECOLOGICAL CLINE THE COGENERNAON BOOM ECONOMIC COSTS RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES ELECTRICITY'S FUTURE POLITICAL FALLOUT THE NEED FOR INTEGRATED ANALYSIS 7 Decommissioning NuclearPower Plants, by Cynthia Pollock 119 3 IncreasingWaterEfficiency, by DECONTAMILATION AND Sandra Postel 40 DISMANTLEMENT WATER SAVING IRRIGATION METHODS WASTE DISPOSAL NEW CROPPING PATTERNS COST ESTIMATION R2CYCLING AND REUSE AFFORDING THE FUTURE CONSERVATION IN CITII:S A LONG-TERM STRATEGY BALANCING THE WATER EQUATION 8 Banishing Tobacco, byWilliamU. 4 Managing Rangelands, by Edward C. Chandler 139 Wolf 2 THE EPIDEMIC SPREADS LESSONS OF A MARGINAL RESOURCE THE DIRECT COST OF ADDICTION RANCHERS AND PASTORALISTS VICTIMS OF OTHERS' SMOKE TURNING FORESTS INTO GRASS EFFECTS ON CHILDREN (x) Contents

ANTISMOKING EFFORTS TO DATE RESTORING SOILS STRONGER MEDICINE GETTING AGRICULTURE MOVING MORE THAN A MARSHALL PLAN 9 Investing in Children, by William U. Chandler 159 11 Redefining National Security, by BASIC PRIVENTIVE HEALTH MEASURES Lester R. Brown 195 WOMEN, WATER, AND AGP.ICULTURE MILITARIZATION OF THE WORLD POPULATION PLANNING ECONOMY ENDING THE CYCLE OF CRISIS COSTS TO THE TWO SUPERPOWERS NEW THREATS TO SECURITY 10 ReversingAfrica'sDecline, by COUNTRIES REDUCING ARMS OUTLAYS Lester R. Brown and Edward C. THE CHALLENGE Wolf 177 Notes 213 BRAKING POPULATION GROWTH Index 251 REPLANTING FORESTS Tables and Figures

LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1 A Generation of Deficits 1-1 Selected Debtor Countries Where Interest Payments on External Debt Exceed 20 Fercenc of Export Earnings, 1984 7 1-2Change in GDP Per Capita from 1980-81 Peak tc 1985 in 10 Major Debtor Countries 8 1-3Resour '-e Depletion Thal'. Is Adversely Affecting Global Economy 10 1-4Oil Intensity of World Economic Output, 1950-85 12 1-5United States: Automobile Fuel Efficiency, 1970-85 12 1-6Annual Growth in World Grain Production, Total and Per Capita, 1950-73 and 1973-85 14 1-7The Changing Pattern of World Grain Trade, 1950 --85 16 1-8Basic Economic and Social Indicators for Industrial World, China, and Rest of Third World, 1985 20

Chapter 2. Assessing Ecological Decline 2-1 Changes in Africa's Cattle, Sheep, and Goat Populations, 1950-70 and 1970-83 26 2-2Desertification Trends in Selected African Countries, 1977-85 27 2-3Countries with Declining Grain Yields Per Hectare, 1950-52 to 1982-84 28 2-4India: Prices of Firewood is Selected Towns, 1960, 1975, and 1983 (current prices) 29 2-5Household Fuel Consumption in the Indian State of Madhya Pradesh 29 2-6Rainfall Runoff Under Varying Land Uses at Hatcliffe Research Station, Zim babwe (4.5 percent slope) 30 2-7Developing Countries with Declining Grain Production Per Person, 1950-52 to 1982-84 33 2-8Food-Related Riots and Demonstrations, 1981 S5 35 2-9Distribution of Refugees in Africa by Country of Refuge, 1984 37

Chapter 3. Increasing Water Efficiency 3-1Use of Microirrigdtion Worldwide and in Selected Countries, 1974 and 1981-82 eta 3-2Chile: Water Productivity Gains in the Claro River Valley 45

.1 (xii) List of Tables and Figures 3-3Effects of Conservation Tillage on Water Storage and Sorghum Yieldsin the Southern U.S. High Plains 47 3-4United States: Water Recycling Rates in Major ManufacturingIndustries, 1954-78, With Projections for 1985 and 2000 49 3-5Israel: Water Productivity in Selected Industries, 1962-82 51 3-6United Sates: Potential Water Savings with Available Water-Efficie.itHouse- hold Fixtu.es 55 3-7Southern California: Estimated Costa of Water Supply and ConservationAlter- natives 59

Chapter 4. Managing Rangelands 4-1 World Land Resources, by Region, 1983 63 4-2World Domestic Ruminant Resources, by /legion, 1984 65 4-3United States: Sources of Livestock Forage, 1976 66 4-4Livestock Protein Production in Various Sem%arid Regions and UnderSeveral Pastoralist Systems in the Sahel 68 4-5Central America: Beef Production and Exports, 1961-85 70 4-6Brazil: Beef Production and Exports, 1961-85 71

Chapter 5. Moving Beyond Oil 5-1 World Oil Consumptm, by Region, 1973, 1979, and 1984 80 5-2Oil Production and Revenues in OPEC and Mexico, 1973, 1980, and1984 81 5-3Energy Intensity of Econo.nic Activity in Selected Courtries, 1973, 1979,ani 1984, With Projections to 2000 85 5-4World Energy Use 1.1y Source, 1973, 1978, and 1984 87 5-5Oil Production, Reserves, and Reserves/Production Ratios,Major Oil-Produc- ing Nations, 1984 92

Chapter 6. Reforming the Electric Power Industry 6-1 United States: Coal and Nuclear Plant Orders and Cancellations, 1970-84 100 6-2Electricity Use Per Capita and Average Annual Rate of Changein Selected Countries, 1962-82 102 6-3United States: Largest Utility Efficiency and Load ManagementPrograms, 1982 106 6-4United States: Industrial Cogeneration Capacity, 1982 109 6-5California: Wind Farms, 1981-85 113 6-6United States: Independent Power Projects Planned, 1980-85 114 6-7California: Sntall-Sc2le Power Technologies Planned by Major Utilities in1984 and 1985 116

Chapter 7. Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants 7-1 Geologic Media Selected for Further Studyas High-Level Waste or Spent Fue: Repository in Various Countries 125 7-2Estimated Low-Level Radioactive Wastes from Dismantlementof a Typica! 1,100-Megawatt Pressurized Wate, Reactor 127

12 List of Tables and Figures (xiii) 7-3Estimated Decommissioning Costs for Nuclear Power Plants No Longer in Operation 130 7-4Nuclear Power Reactors No Longer in Operation, 1985 132 7-5Nuclear Power Reactors in Operation, 10 Leading Countries, 1984 135 7-6Nuclear Power Reactors in Operation Worldwide, 1950-84, and Year of Ex- pected Retirement 137

Chapter 8. Banishing Tobacco 8-1Cigarette Use in Selected Countries, 1984 141 8-2Prevalence of Smoking Among Men and Women in Selected Countries, Circa 1980 142 8-3United States: Mortality Due to Tobacco and Selected Other Causes, 1984 143 8-4Tobacco's Toll in Lives, Selected Countries, Circa 1982 147 8-5Smoking During Pregnancy, Selected Countries, Circa 1980 150 8-6Cigarette Use and Antismoking Policies, Selected Countries, 1974-84 153 8-7Selected U.S. Corporations with Policies Concerning Smoking in the Work- place, 1985 156

Chapter 9. Investing in Children 9-1Potential Reduction in Infant and Child Deaths with Proven Disease-Control Technologies 161 9-2Global Immunization Rates for Infectious Diseases, 1980 164 9-3Availability of Clean Drinking N, ater and Human Waste Disposal in Selected Countries, Circa 1982 168 9-4Share of Work in Africa Performed by Women 170

Chapter 10. Reversing Africa's Decline 10-1Africa: Clearing of Closed Forests, by Major Forested Region, 19E5 182 Chapter 11. Redefining National Security 11-1Military Expenditures as Share of GNP for Selected Countries, 1984 198 11-2U.S. Balance of Trade, 1950-84 (current dollars) 201 11-3Annual Exports, the United States and Japan, 1950-85, With Projectionsto 1990 (current dollars) 203 11-4Selected Countries Delinquent in Servicing External Debt, 1985 205 11-5Clina: Military Expenditures as Share of GNP, 1967-85 207

LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1. A Generation of Deficits 1-1U.S. Military Expenditures, 1950-85 6 1-2U.S. Gross Federal Debt, 1950-86 6 1-3World Production of Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas (in Coal Equivalent), 1950-85 13

13 (xiv) List of Tables and Figures

1-4 Per Capita Grain Production in Western Europe and Africa, 1950-85 15 1-5U.S. Beef Consumption Per Capita, 1950-85 16 1-6Grain Production in the Soviet Union and China, 1950-84 18 Chapter 2. Assessing Ecological Decline 2-1 Fuelwood Consumption and New Tree Growth in Sudan, 1950-80, With Pro- jections to 2000 24 2-2Standing Stock of Trees in Sudan, 1950-80, With Projections to 2000 24 Chapter 4. Managing Rangelands 4-1U.S. Net Beef Imports, 1960-85 71

Chapter 5. Moving Beyond Oil 5-1 World Oil Production, 1950-85 79

Chapter 6. Reforming the Electric Power Industry 6-1 U.S. Electricity Use Per $1,000 of GNP, 1960-85 102 Chapter 8. Banishing Tobacco 8-1 Cigarette Consumption Worldwide, 1960-85 140 8-2Smoking Among U.S. Males, by Education Level, 1982 142 8-3Additional Risk of Heart Attack Due to Smoking, U.S. Males Aged 30-44 144 8-4International Correlation Between Cigar( Consumption and Lung Cancer Deaths After 20 Years of Smoking 1.... 8-5Lung Cancer Mortality in Japanese Women Whose Husbands Smoked 148 Chapter 9. Investing in Children 9-1 Infant Mortality, Female Literacy, and Access to Drinking Water in Selected Countries, Circa1980 162 9-2Infant Mortality and Age of Mother 171 9-3Infant Mortality and Years Between Births 172 9-4Infant Mortality and Birth Order 172

Chapter 10. Reversing Africa's Decline 10-1Per Capita Grain Production in Africa, 1950-85 178 10-2Grain Yield in Sudan, 1950-84 190

Chapter 11. Redefining National Security 11-1 World Military Expenditures, 1960-85 196 11-2Grain Imports and Arms Imports Worldwide, 1960-84 198 11-3Net Interest Paid on U.S. Federal Debt, 1960-86 200 11-4Per Capita GNP, Japan and the Soviet Union, 1960-84 203 11-5Net Foreign Assets, the United States and Japan, 1960-85 204 11-6Military Expenditures in Argentina, 1970-84 208

14 Foreword

In the first two annual assessments in sidiary, in the United Kingdom and the this series, State of the World-1984 (SOTW- English-speaking Commonwealth. The 84 ) and SOTW-85, we concentrated on international distribution of State of the the relationship between the economy World in major languages has been and its environmental support systems. greatly aided by the worldwide network Specifically, we looked at hew the eco- of our New York literary agent, Curtis nomic demands of a world population Brown. approaching 5 billion were affecting the The Spanish rights have been pur- earth's natural systems and resources. In chased by Fonda de Cultura Economica, turn, we analyzed the effect of a deteri- a large Mexico City publishing house orating resource base on the economic that markets throughout Latin America. system. Negotiations are under way for a Por- In SOTW-86, we maintain this analyti- tuguese edition in Brazil. If this contract cal framework, but expand it to embrace is signed, as we anticipate, it will com- threats to security as well. Although na- plete coverage in the western hemi- tional governments have defined secu- sphere. rity in military terms, the environmental In Asia, State of the World is being pub- and economic dimensions of security are lished in Chinese, Japanese, Indonesian, becoming increasingly apparent. While Thai, and Malay. In addition, a special traditional analyses often overlook the English edition is being printed in India new threats to national security, the inte- for distribution in the subcontinent. In grated or interdisciplinary appruz.7h em- Europe, along with distribution of the ployed in State of the World brings them English edition from London, we expect into focus. to sign publishing contracts shortly for When we launched this series, we German and Italian. In Eastern Europe, hoped, of course, that such an approach we have a Polish edition and are discuss- would generate interest among those ing publication in the Soviet Union with dissatisfied with the more specialized the Soviet Academy of Sciences. analyses, but we underestimated the re- With the recent signing of a contract sponse. For example, when SOTW-84 for an Arabic edition, the only remaining was released, we did not anticipate that gap among the major languagesis there would soon be 117,000 copies in French. We are now seeking a French print in nine languages. edition that would be published in Paris Worldwide distribution of the State of and marketed both in France -,nd in the the World series is progressing on several French-speaking countries of Africa. fronts. Our U.S. publisher, W.W. Nor- Perhaps the most exciting develop- ton, distributes in the United States and ment to date has been a proposal from Canada, and, through its London sub- the producers of the public te'evision se-

15 (xvi) Foreword ries NOVA that we collaborate on a 10- The U.S. government typically pur- part television series based on State of the chases Worldwatch Papers in bulk. For World. To the best of our knowledge, example, the Department of Agriculture this is the first time that a research insti- purchased for internal use 250 copies of tute has teamed up with public broad- the Institute's report on soil erosion. casting to produce a major television se- The Agency for International Develop- ries. Our goal is a timely and informative ment purchased 125 copies of World- series that will be aired throughout the watch Paper 65, Reversing Africa's Decline, world. for use in the Africa Bureau. In cases We hope that one day the printed and where demand is particularly strong, re- film versions of State of the World will rein- print rights have been purchased, such force each other, not only in the United as for the Worldwatch Paper on photo- States, but worldwide in countries as di- voltaics, which the U.S. Department of verse as China, Brazil, and West Ger- Energy incorporated into its own publi- many. Together, the print and film ver- cation series. sions of the State of the World series could Among international agencies, the underpin an unprecedented worldwide World Bank, the U.N. Fund for Popula- public education effort on the relation- tion Activities, and the United Nations ship between the global economy and its Environment Programme are among the environmental support systems. leading users of Worldwatch research. One of the most rapidly growing mar- The World Bank, for example, has pur- kills for the State of the World report is the chased and distributed 900 copies of college classroom. For example, SOTW- Reversing Africa's Decline. It has also tran- 85 was adopted for course use during slated the paper into French, in order to the 1985 fall semester in at least 170 reach key policymakers in francophone U.S. colleges and universities. In some, Africa. it was used in several different depart- When we started the Institute a dec- ments, including agriculture, demogra- ade ago with the help of William Dietel phy, ecology, economic development, and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, we geography, and internationalaffairs. expected to earn some income from The list is led by the University of Cali- publication sales. What we did not antic- fornia, where it was used in eight courses ipate was the strength of the market for on seven campuses, and by the Univer- integrated public policy research. We sity of Wisconsin, where it was used in certainly did not foresee that income five courses on the Madison campus from publication sales, including royal- alone. ties and reprint rights, and the interest Among national governments, those on savings from this earned income of the United States and China are the would cover 54 percent of our costs, as two leading users of Worldwatch publi- they did in 1985. cations. Indeed, the Chinese first print- The strong market demand for World- ing of 59,000 copies of State of the World watch publications appears to stem from is even larger than the English first print- their interdisciplinary character. In this ing. In addition, the Institute for Scien- sense, the analyses reflect the world that tific and Technical Information of China policymakers face. Decision makers can- has launched a series patterned after the not view the world exclusively in eco- Worldwatch Papers, entitled "The De- nomic, ecological, or political terms. Re- velopment Papers." Among thefirst sponsiblepolicy requirespulling dozen papers, three are reprints from information together across many fields Worldwatch. of knowledge. t6 to

Foreword (xvii) As in the past, we welcome ideas and suggestions. The more feedback we get, the more useful State of the World will be. Lester R. Brown Project Director Edward C. Wolf Associate Project Director Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036

December 1985 1

A Generation of Deficits

Lester R. Brown

For 40 years, the United States and the penditures, the United States has run up Soviet Union have been engaged in an massive fiscal deficits to finance this un- arms race, an unremitting contest that precedented peacetime military expan- has sapped the energies and resources of sion. Mounting federal deficitssince both countries. Each is determined to 198C have made the Treasury the domi- gain a strategic military advantage, re- nant borrower in capital markets, com- gardless of cost. This competition has peting with private firms for investment dominated not only relations between capital. This in turn has led to rec "rd- the two countries, but a generation of high real interest rates and contributed world affairs as well. to a dollar that is overvalued against For both superpowers, the costs are other currencies, making U.S. exports far higher than any fiscal reckoning less competitive in world markets. would suggest. And they range far be- For the United States, declining com- yond the disproportionate share of na- petitiveness and higher capital costs are tional product devoted to military pur- discouraging investment in new indus- poses. Claims on the time of political trial capacity, and contributing to indus- leaders in Washington, Moscow, and trial decline. Basic industries such as steel are being overwhelmed by imports elsewhere have been heavy, diverting produced in more efficient, modern policymakers from other issues, includ- plants abroad. Since the onset of the ing emerging new threats to security. massive U.S. fiscal deficits, 2 million jobs The U.S. decision to accelerate the in basic industries have been lost to im- arms race inthe early eighties has ports.' pushed military spending to a new level. All major sectors of the U.S. agricul- Unwilling to raise taxes or cut other ex- turalandindustrialeconomyare Units of measurement are metric unless common affected by the deteriorating competitive usage dictates otherwise. position. The overvalued dollar is reduc-

I 18 (4) State of the World I 986 ing the ability of American farmers to Following its defeat in World War H, compete in world markets, thus depress- Japan was both sheltered under the U.S. ing commodity prices and reducing agri- defense umbrella and barred from the cultural income. A portion of the farm arms race by the Allied powers' stipula- debt$213 billion at the end of 1985 tion that its militarization remain limited will never be repaid. Farm foreclosures, to a small, lightly armed self-defense at the highest level since the Great De- force. Without an imposing militarysec- pression, are weakening the U.S. bank- tor to sap investment capital and scien- ing system in a way that alarms federal tific and managerial talent, Japan ismov- banking regulators.2 ing toward a position of global economic supremacy. High domestic savings plus negligible military expenditures have A portion of the farm debt$213 combined to boost investment innew billion at the end of 1985will plant and equipment, giving Japan the never be repaid. world's most modern, technologically advanced economy. Measured by ability to compete in worldmarketsandbyinvestment In the Soviet Union, the arms race is abroad, Japan is steadily improving its exacting a heavy toll on living standards position relative to the superpowers. Per and diverting political energies from the capita income in Japan surpassed that in sorely needed modernization. To main- the Soviet Union in the mid-sixties and is tain its position in the arms competition, approaching that in the United States. In the Soviet Union, with an economic out- trade, Japan's exports are nearly double put only half that of the United States, those of the Soviet Union. And if recent devotes twice as much of itsgross na- trends continue, before 1990 Japan will tional product (GNP) to the military supplant the United States as the world's effort. Now the economy is in deeptrou- leading trading power.3 ble. As the Soviet Union tries tomove Japanese investment abroad has also beyond the early stages of industrial de- surged in recent years. With only modest velopment toward a highly diversified net foreign assets of less than $12 billion modern economy, the shortcomings of as recently as 1980, Japan's net externel state control are becoming more appar- holdings now exceed $120 billion. The ent. For Mikhail Gorbachev, the young, United States, long the world's leading reform-minded Soviet leader, the diffi- overseas investor, with net assets abroad culty of launching the needed economic of $147 billion as recently as 1982, har, now become a debtor nationa precipi- reforms if the arms ra:e is not slowed is obvious. tous, and unprecedented, fall from leadership. Its once-vast net foreign assets Preoccupied with each other, the two have been wiped out almost overnight.4 military superpowers apparently have In the international economic arena, failed to notice that global geopolitics is Japan is thus now in a class by itself. The being reshaped in a way that definesse- combination of international trade and curity more in economic than in tradi- rapidly growing investment abroad gives tional military terms. While the United the nation a direct internationaleco- States and Soviet Union have concen- nomic involvement thatthe United trated on military competition, Japan has States can no longer claim. In 1985 been challenging both nationson the Japan's exports totaled $174 billion. economic front. Combined with its net foreign assets of 19 A Generation of Deficits (5) $125 billion, this gives Japan a total eco- DEFICITS AND DEBT nomic involvement abroad of $299 billion. By comparison, U.S. exports of Seldom if ever have deficits and debt so $217 billion and net foreign assets of dominated public attention. The United minus $120 billion yielded a total of $97 States has accumulated almost as much billion, just one third that of Japan.5 debt over the past six years as during the Japan, initially barred from the inter- preceding twr centuries. The external national arms race, now has mastered debt of the Third World, particularly in the new geopolitics, recognizing that in Latin America and Africa, no% threatens the nuclear age military power is of lim- internationalfinancialstability.Al- ited value and that political influence de- though rising oil prices contributed to rives more from the economic strength debt accumulation on both these conti- of a highly productive, internationally nents, economic mismanagement un- competitive economy. U.Sgovernors derscored by a deteriorating ecosystem and mayors now compete vigorously for and declining rainfall raised African debt Japanese attention and industrial invest- to unmanageable levels. This combina- ment. And Third World delegations tionthe growing U.S. federal debt, seeking investment and technology from now in excess of $2 trillion, and the abroad journey to Tokyo. For develop- Third World's external debt, now over ing countries, the Japanese model is far $800 billionwill plague the world more attractive than either the problem- economy for decades to come.5 ridden Soviet economy or the debt-rid- The burgeoning U.S debt, driven pri- den American one.6 marily by the growth in defense spend- Another country that has grasped the ing, is of concern to economic policy- new geopolitics is China. Although it makers throughout the world. As the shares a 3,000-kilometer border with the U.S. government's preoccupation with Soviet Union, it has unilaterally decided the arms race heightened during the to reduce military expenditures, cutting eighties, spending in this sector rose them from some 14 percent of GNP a dramatically. As recently as 1980, U.S. decade ago to 7.5 percent in 1985. At the defense expenditures totaled $174 bil- same time, the leaders in Beijing have lion (ia 1985 dollars). (See Figure 1-1.) increased investment in agriculture and Those for 1986 are projected at $272 the manufacture of consumer goods and billion. Unfortunately, these increases, have stepped up the effort to restore and which accounted for much of the growth protect the economy's environmental inthebudgetarydeficit,were not support systems by increasing expendi- matched by increases in tax revenues. tures on reforestation, desert reclama- Consequently, the gap between federal tion, and, most importantly, family plan- expenditures and revenues has widened, ning. In effect, China is defining security approaching $200 billion annually in rein economic and ecological terms.? cent years.9 Unfortunately, the two superpowers As a result, the U.S. federal debt has that are perpetuating the arms race are grown at an unprecedented rate. (See not its only victims. To the extent that Figure 1-2.) Escalating debt, the as- the arms competition diverts attention sociated high interest rates, and an over- from the Third World debt that is weak- valued dollar are creating a host of eco- ening the international financial system, nomic problems for both the United or from the ecological deterioration that States and the rest of the world. Among is undermining the global economy, the other things, the deficit is being financed entire world suffers. in part by an influx of capital from other (6) State of the World-1986 Billion growth that cheap oil made possible dur- Dollars ing the quarter-century following World 300 War H, were reluctant to adjust their life-styles and consumption patterns to new realities. In an effort to offset the effect of rising oil prices and to keep 200 their economies growing faster than their populations, the majority of Third World governments borrowed heavily during the late seventies and early eight- 100 - ies. They were encouraged in this by the international lending institutions, which (1985 dollars) were seeking ways of "recycling" mas- Source. U.S. Census Bureau sive dep asits of petrodollars. Indirectly, higher oil prices slowed 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 global economic growth, and hence growth in raw material markets. They Figure 1 -1. U.S. Military Expenditures, 1950-85 also set in motion energy conservation programs that involved increased recy- countries. For pertlaps the first time in cling of materials, including aluminum history, the saving., of people in lower- and copper, both major Third World income countries are being used to foreign-exchange earners. The net effect finance the growth in consumption of an of these shifts was weaker prices for raw affluent society." material exports. Necessary though the The Third World debt problem re- oil price hikes were to wean the world ceived worldwide. recognition only after from its oil-wasteful ways, they left many the financial insolvency of debtor nations painful adjustments in their wake. had reached crisis proportions. Mexico The key to the financial crisis p.aguing brought the crisis to center stage in Au- Third World countries is the relation- gust of 1982, when Mexico's Finance ship of debt-service payments (principal Minister, Jesus Silva Herzog, "showed up plus interest) to export earnings. Tradi- on our doorstep and turned his pockets inside out," in the words of a U.S. Trea- Billion sury official." As foreign affairs analyst Dollars Karin Lissakers has noted, "His arrival 3,000 marked the beginning of an international Source: U S. Office debt crisis that by Christmas had swept of Mcmgg and Budget through a dozen debtor countries and a thousand creditor banks and placed (1985 dollars) more than $300 billion in international 2,000 - loans in jeopardy."12 Mexico was nor the first Third World country unable to meet the payments on its debt, but it was the 1,000 first large enough to threaten the international financial system. Part of the growth in Third World external debt was attributable, directly and indirectly, to the oil price hikes of the seventies. Consumers and government 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 pt,licymakers, accustomed to the easy Fia'ure 1.2. U.Ii. Gross Federal Debt, 1950.86

21 A Generatton of Deficits (7) tionally,international banks avoided marketsforThirdWorldexports lending when deb'- servicepayments ex- through sustained growth in the indus- ceeded 20 percent of export earnings." trial economies. The second requires Heavy borrowing, combined with rising structural improvements in Third World interest rates and a global recession in economies in exchange for debtre- the early eighties, has pushedmany schedulinp. Typically, the changes in- Third World countries far beyond this clude reductions in imports andgovern- threshold. Several financially troubled ment spending, and increases in savings nations, such asArgentina,Bolivia, and exports, with currency devaluation Egypt, Pakistar, and Sudan, havenot frequently used to improve trade bal- only exceeded this limitthe,'are al- ances. The third component, which is locating more than half their export expected to follow improved economic earnings merely to pay intereston neir conditions, involves a resumption ofnet debts. (See Table 1-1.) capital inftows from lender countries." The current strategy for coping with This approach has succeeded insofar excessive Third World debt, developed as it has avoided massive defaults that by the International Monetary Fund would have jeopardized the interna- (IMF) with the cooperation andsupport tional banking system. The trade deficits of the international banks, has three of most major debtor nations alsohave main components. The first is to expand been remedied, with some, suchas Bra- zil, even running moderate tradesur- Table 1-1. Selected Debtor Countries pluses. And the time bought with the Where Interest Payments on External IMF approach has allowed international Debt Exceed 20 Percent of Export banks to increase theirreserves against Earnings, 1984 Third World loans and thus reduce their risk.15 Share of But this strategy has not restoredsus- Export tained growth in debtor countries. Total In Earnings nearly all of the heavily indebtedones, External to Pay Country incomes are lower today than when the Debt Interest' crisis began four years ago. Th: ratio of (billion dollars) (percent) debt servicing to exports hasnot de- Sudan 9 clined as projected And, finally, capital 80 flight from most countries continues, Argentina 48 56 Bolivia 5 signaling a failure to restore investor 48 confidence. Chile 20 44 Brazil A compilation by the Morgan Guar- 102 38 anty Trust Company show that real Mexico 97 gross domestic product per capita de- 36 clined in 9 of the 10 major debtor Peru 14 33 coun- Philippines 26 tries from the peak level of 1980-81to 28 1985. (See Table 1-2.) The declines Ecuador 7 24 Morocco 13 ranged from 5.6 percent in Brazilto 25 23 percent it Nig 4a. For the 10 countries 'Percentages are much higher if principal pay- ar a ip oup, per capita incomes fell by ments are included. oh, tenth during this brief span of years. souucEs: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, New York, private communication, November 6, 1985; Even worse, with existing external debt Sudan data from U.S. Department of Agriculture, burdens, there is little prospect ofonce Economic Research Service, Agncultural Outlook, again steadily improving livingstan- Washington, D.C., October 1985. dards.

22 (8) State of theWorld-1986 Table 1-2. Change in GDP Per Capita World exports. In addition, it under- from 1980-81 Peak to 1985 in 10 Major mines the capacity of the United States Debtor Countries to lead in any effort to resolve the debt issue. Country Change It is time to go back to the drawing (percent) board. Suda.i's Foreign Minister, Ibra- 17.1 him Taha Ayoub, expressed the senti- Argentina ments of many in the Third World when Brazil 5.6 he said, "It is becoming glaringly evi- Chile 14.4 dent that we cannot service and repay Ecuador 6.3 these debts and succeed at the same time Mexico 9.4 in providing our people with the mini- Peru 13.7 17.1 mumrequirementsofsurvival." 17 Venezuela Ayoub is describing a new reality for his Nigeria 25.0 14.1 country and dozens of others that the Philippines world has not yet come to grips with. Yugoslavia +1.5

Average 9.8 SOURCE: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company,World Financial Marhas, New York, September/October 1985. ECOLOGICAL DEFICITS As of early1986,the IMF's plan for Economic deficits may dominate our ma,laging Third World debt is not work- headlines, but ecological deficits will ing as intended. What once appeared to dominate our future. Accounting sys- be a temporary slowdown in global eco- tems signal when a country begins to run nomic growth now appearstobe up an economic deficit, but they do not chronic. In addition to the constraints indicate when the sustainable yield imposed by the end of the era of cheap threshold of a biological resource, such energy, a deteriorating natural resource as a forest, has been crossed. Ecological base is affecting the economic prospects deficits such as a loss of tree cover or of of scores of Third World countries. (See topsoil often go unnoticed until they Chapter2.) begin to affect economic indicators. But In Africa, food deficits are adding to by that time, excessive demand may be trade deficits throughout the continent. consuming the resource itself, convert- With some 40 percent of Africans living ing a renewable resource into a non- in countries where cropland productivity renewable one. is lower now than it was 30 years ago, When historians analyze this era of excessive soil erosion is contributing to debt, they will discover that excessive growth in external debt. The continent's economic and ecological deficits have cereal import bill climbed from$600 similar roots, for they reflect similar val- million in1972to $5.4 billion in1983,a ues and processes. Occasionally, these ninefold increase.16 are a result of miscalculations. But more Further complicating efforts to repay commonly they result from a loss of so- Third World bills is the growing U.S. cial discipline, from a decision to satisfy debt. This promises not only a continua- today's needs and desires at the expense tion of record or near-record real :nter- of tomorrowin effect, a decision to est rates in world money markets, but "charge it" to our children. Carried to also a weakened U.S. economy and, con- excess, this weakens the economy itself, sequently, a smaller market for Third leading to economic decline.

23 YY-

A Generation of Deficits (9) Though similar in cause, economic generation, the discharge of sulfur diox- and ecological deficits differ in their ide and nitrogen oxides has alsogrown, effect. The former do not reduce im- as have ozone levels. Across the north- mediately an economy's inherent pro- ern tier of industrial countriesNorth ductivity. Ecological deficits, however, America, Europe, and the Soviet Union actually diminish the resource base on air pollution and acid precipitationare which the productivity of the economy now damaging and destroying forests. depends. For example, a farmer in debt No industrial country is escaping this de- may eventually lose the farm, as the local struction, though some, such as Czecho- bank forecloses on the mortgage. But slovakia, Poland, and West Germany, are the farm does not lose its productivity; it suffering more than others.19 merely changes hands. If, however, the The same demographic forces that are farmer is incurring an ecological deficit, increasing pressure on Third World for- losing topsoil through erosion, then the ests are also multiplying pressures on farm becomes worthless and the land grasslands. With livestock herds grow- must be abandoned. ing almost as fast as human populations, Ecological deficits occur when the de- grasslands are deteriorating in Africa, mands on a natural system exceed its the Middle East, the Indian subconti- carrying capacity. (See Table 1-3.) If the nent, and Central America. In some amount of wood removed from a forest countries, grassland deterioration has exceeds the new growth, the forest be- reached the point where herd liquida- gins to si., ink, and will eventually disap- tion is now the only feasible response." pear. Likewise with a fishery: When the catch begins to exu...ed the sustainable Y -- the fish stocks deslme. If the exces- Economic deficits may dominate sive catch continues, the fishery will collapse. If the demand on a system contin- our headlines, but ecological defi- ues to expand once the sustainaV.e yield cits will dominate our future. threshold is crossed, the resource base will shrink with each passing year. In the absence of action to correct the growing Throughout most of history,the excess of demand over sustainable yield, human demand for seafood did not even the pace of resource destruction will ac- remotely approach the sustainable yield celerate, leaving society little time to act. of oceanic fisheries. But as ournum- Of all the excessive demands on the bers have nearly doubled since mid-cen- earth's natural resources, that on forests tury, claims on many fisheries have be- is the most visible. Land clearing for ag- come excessive. From 1950 to 1970, the riculture, firewood gathering, and har- world fish catch expanded at 5 percent vesting by lumber and paper industries per year, as fast as or cven faster than are all taking a toll. As of the mid-eight- theglobal economy. This changed ies, every country in Africa is losing tree abruptly after 1970, when annual growth cover. Indeed, forest deficits are now the dropped to 1 percent. Overfishing, which rule throughout the Third World. Only had been the exception, was becoming South Korea and China appear to be the rule, and a lead sector in global eco- planting more trees than they are har- nomic growth began to lag.21 vesting." Perhaps the most worrisome loss is At the same time, forests in industrial that of topsoil. Soil erosion is a natural countries are beginning to suffer from process, but when it exceeds the rate of excessive chemical stress. As fossil fuel new soil formation, as it now does on 35 combustion has expanded over the past percent of ne world's cropland, then the

24 (ro) Slate of the World-1986 Table 1-3. Resource Depletion That Is Adversely Affecting Global Economy ResourceExtent of Depletion Forests World's tropical forests disappearing at 2 percer t per year. Far faster in West Africa and southeast Asia, where moist tropical forests will have virtually disappeared by end of century. Previously stable forests in temperate zone now suffering from air pollution and acid rain. Dead and dying forests plainly visible in West Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland.

Grasslands Excessive pressure on grasslands, closely paralleling growing pressure on forests and soils, has led to deterioration, which is most advanced in Africa and Middle East. Herd liquidation in pastoral economies of Africa now commonplace.

Fisheries Rapid growth in world fish catch during fifties and sixties now history; overfishing atm cite rule, not the exception. Fish catch per person, including from fish farming, down 15 percent since 1970. Biggest consumption cuts in Third World countries such as Philippines.

Soil Soil erosion exceeding new soil formation on 35 percent of world's cropland. World losing an estimated 7 percent of topsoil per decade. Effects most evident in Africa, where 40 percent of people live in countries % here land productivity is lower than it was a generation ago.

Water Growing water demand exceeding sustainable supplies in many locations, leading to scarcity. Falling water tables now found on every continent and in key food-producing regions. In some areas, including portions of the United States, water being shifted out of irrigated agriculture to satisfy growing residential demands.

01! Increases in the price of oil, the principal commercial fuel, sharply reduced world economic growth since 1973. Part of decline is due to 111-conceived responses to oil price hikes, notably the heavy borrowing by Third World countries. Progress in developing renewable alternatives is lagging.

SOURCE:Worldwatch Institute, based on various sources. land's inherent productivity begins to In most situations, scarcity results from decline. The cumulative loss of topsoil, a growth in demand that exceeds locally now affecting industrial and developing available supplies. In others, it stems countriesalike,isbeginning to also from a reduction in supplies, as defor- affect the economics of food production. ebtation, other losses of vegetation, and Industrial societies can often offset such landdegradationincreaserainfall a loss with increased fertilizer use, but in runoff, thus reducing both aquifer re- some 14 Third World countriesmainly chargeandevaporation. Reduced in Africa- -soil loss is reducing land pro- aquifer recharge lowers water tables, ductivity.22 and reduced evaporation and transpira- Water, too,is becoming scarce in tion may lower rainfall. Countries ex- some parts of the world, constraining perienLing a rapid grtwth in water de- growth in both agriculture and industry. mand, diminished aquifer recharge, and

25 A Generation of Deficits (n) less rainfall can find themselves ina nomic activity, reversing the historical water crisis almost overnight. trend. The oil used per $1,000 ofeco- Whether the.: occur with forests, soils, nomic output increased from 1.3 barrels fisheries, or water supplies, ecological in 1950 to 2.3 barrels in 1973, where it deficitslike fiscal onesrepresenta leveled off through 1979, before begin- borrowing from the future. The price for ning the decline that continues today. our short.;ighted choice to live beyond With the sixth consecutive year of de- our means will be paid by our children clining oil intensity in 1985, the world and grandchildren. was using 21 percent less oil per unit of economic output than in 1979. (See Table 1-4.) Since1978,allwestern industrial coulkir:es and China have sharplyre- REDUCING OIL DEFICITS duced the oil intensity of their economic activity. Oil efficiercy gains in the cen- While economic and ecological deficits trally controlled economies of Eastern are growing, oil ;mport deficits have Europe have been nitwit less impressive, been reduced. Petroleum being shipped however. Indeed, the oil intensity of the into the United States, the world's larg- Soviet economy has continued to rise est importer, has declined from an all- during the eighties." time high of 8.7 million barrels per day Worldwide, lowered oil intensity is in 1977 to 5.4 millien in 1984, a reduc- due more to energy efficiency gains than tion of 38 percent. Western Europe's im- to fuel substitution, though this varies by ports have dropped from the peak of sector. Within the United States, for ex- 15.4 million barrels in 1973 to 8.6 mil- ample, gains in the fuel efficiency of new lion in 1984, a fall of 44 percent. Al- automobiles marketed since 1973 have though less impressive, Japan's imports reduced automotive fuel use by nearly have also fallen, from a high of 5.6 mil- ene tenth. Between 1973 and 1985, the lion barre:s daily in 1979 to 4.3 million officialfuel efficiency ratings, which in 1984.23 overstate somewhat the "on-road" fuel This reduced dependenceon im- economy, show miles traveled per gallon ported oil has helped stabilize petro- of gasoline 4 d in new cars increasing leum prices and virtually eliminatedany from 14 to 27, a g: rt of some 90 percent. threat of embargoes, at least for the near (See Table 1-5.) For the fleet as a whole, term. As discussed in Chapter 5, re- fuel efficiency during the same span im- duced imports are largely the product of proved more slowly, from justover 13 increased worldwide efficiency of oiluse; miles per gallon to more than 17. Stated of a shift to other energy sources, suchas simply, the average American car trav- coal,natural gas, hydropower, wood eled 32 percent farther on a gallon of fuel, and nuclear power; and of impres- gasoline in 1985 than in 1973. sive oil production gains in countries By contrast,fuelsubstitutionhas that are not members of the Organiza- played only a negligible role in the auto tion of Petroleum Exporting Countries sector. Two countries, South Africa and (OPEC). The trend toward less reliance Brazil, have effectively broken the auto- on oil is well established and will likely mobile's dependence on oil, but ata continue for the foreseeable future. high cost. South Africa, usinga coal The combination of more-efficient oil iuefaction process, and Brazil, produc- use and fuel substitution is steadily re- ing alcohol from sugarcane, artnow ducing the oil intensity of worldeco- running close to half their fleets with

26 '14 (12) State of the Wor 141,-1986 Table 1-4. Oil Intensity of World Table 1-5. United States: Automobile Economic Output, 1950-85 Fuel Efficiency, 1970-85 Oil Used Year New Cars Total Fleet Per $1,000 (miles per gallon) Year Of Output' 1970 14.8 13.6 (barrels) 1971 14.4 13.6 1950 1.33 1972 14.5 13.5 1973 14.2 13.1 1955 1.46 1974 14.2 13.4

1960 1.67 1975 15.8 13.5 1976 17.5 13.7 1965 1.90 1977 18.3 13.9 1978 19.9 14.1 1970 2.17 1979 20.3 14.3 1971 2.21 1972 2.23 1980 23.5 15.1 1973 2.27 1981 25.2 15.5 1974 2.13 1982 26.1 16.2 1975 2.05 1983 25.9 16.7 1976 2.15 1984 26.5 17.0 1977 2.16 1985 26.9 17.3 1978 2.14 SOURCES:Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- 1979 2.15 tion, Motor Mr& Facts and Figures, '85 (Detroit, Mich.: 1935); U.S. Census Bureau, Statraical Ab- 1980 2.00 stract of the Untied States 1984 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984); Federal 1981 1.91 Highway Administration, U.S. Department of 1982 1.85 Transportation, Washington, D.C., private com- 1983 1.79 munication. 1984 1.74 world economic outlook have markedly 1985 1.69 altered the long-term prospect for the '1980 dollars. automobile industry. Between 1950 and SOURCES:Worldwatch Institute estimates based on 1973, annual world automobile output data from British Petroleum Company, BP Statisti- expanded from 8 million to 30 million, cal Review of World Energy (London: 1985); Interna- or roughly 100,000 per working day, tionalMonetaryFund,InternationalFrnanctal Statistics (Washington, D.C.: various issues); and closely paralleling the spectacular five- Herbert R. Block, The Planetary Product in 1980 fold growth in oil output of that period. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, After1973,automobileproduction 1981). dipped for a few years, then recovered, these alternative fuels. In both coun- reaching an all-time high of 31 million in tries, the costs in government subsidies 1978. Following that, it fell for four con- have been high, with the benefits of secutive years. As real oil prices declined these subsidies going to the small minor- during the eighties, automobile output ity who own automobiles." turned upward in 1983 and 1984. Yet The changing outlook for oil-the there is little indication today that the ideal transport fuel-and the less bullish growth in automobile manufacturing,

27 A Generation of Deficits which was so impressive from 1950 to Million 1973, will ever be resumed.26 Metric In contrast to the automotive sector, Tons the dramatic reduction of oil used in 6,000 electrical generation is largely the result Sources: Amer. Petroleum Inst.; United Nations; Brituh of substituting other fuels, principally Petroleum Ca coal, nuclear power, natural gas, and hydropower. In the United States, the 4,000 - amount of oil used to generate electricity has fallen by two thirds or more since 1978, a pattern typical of other oil- importing industrial countries.27 2,000 The hiatorical shift from coal to oil, which was under way when this century began, weakened with the 1973 oil price hike, and was decisively reversed after that of 1979. (See Figure 1-3.) Coal has 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 been the principal fuel substitute for oil in the electric utility and other industrial Figure 1-3. World Production of Coal, Oil, and sectors in oil-importing countries." Natural Gas (in Coal Equivalent), 1930-85 More recently, natural gas has been Small but rapidly growing amounts of extensively substituted for oilagain, other renewable energy sources such as largely for economic reasons. The prin- geothermal energy, solar collectors, and cipal substitutions are occurring in the wind power are also being substituted Soviet I Tnion and in Eastern and West- for oil in electrical generation. (See ern Eu.pe, with all countries drawing Chapter 6.) on vast Soviet reserves of natural gas. As Oil prices have stabilized in the short these reserves are linked to European run, but at considerable long-term ex- markets by an international network of pense. The growth in non-OPEC oil pro- pipelines, this substitu'ion is likely to duction, a key to oil market stability in continue. In contrast to the shift from oil back to coal, that from oil to natural gas the eighties, is not likely to be sustained generates less air pollution." for much longer. North Sea production In addition to coal, the 3 percent is expected to peak and turn downward yearly growth in hydroelectric genera- within the next rew years. The apparent tion since 1979 has helped curb the peaking of Soviet oil production in 1983 amount of oil used in electrical genera- follows the high point in U.S. output by tion in many Third World countries. 13 years, and almost certainly assures an The most dramatic hydropower expan- overall decline in non-OPEC oil out- sion is occurring in Latin America and put." Asia, where there is a vast undeveloped As non-OPEC oil reserves dwindle, potential. Canada and the Soviet Union and as production declines during the are also developing large-scale hydro- early nineties, control of world oil sup- electric projects, with the former plan- plies and prices will shift back to the ning to sell its swelling surplus of elec- handful of Middle Eastern OPEC mem- tricity to the United States. China, too, is bers who will control an even greater making a major push on hydropower as share of world oil output than they did it attempts both to industrialize and to during the price-raising seventies. (See bring electricityto the countryside. Chapter 5.) In effect, the stability in the

28 (14) State of the World-1986 world oil market that is being bought for individual regions, all moving up- with expanded non-OPEC oil produc- ward until around 1970, have begun to tion during the eighties will be paid for diverge since then, with some now de- with increased dependence on Middle clining. Eastern OPEC oil during the nineties. Nowhere isthe regional contrast greater than between Western Europe and Africa. In Africa, per capita grain production in 1985 was still down by one fifth from its 1967 peak, though up from DIVERGING FOOD SECURITY the depressed harvests of 1983 and 1984. In Western Europe, by contrast, TRENDS per capita grain production has more The contemporary world consists over- than doubled over the past generation, whelmingly of food-deficit countries, climbing from 235 kilograms in 1950 to with over 100 of them importing grain 495 kilograms in 1985. Spurred by pro- from the United States alone. But this ducer price incentives well above the world market level, Western Europe's figure does not tell the whole story, since farmers have vigorously expanded out- two countries, China and Indiawhich put, even though some countries have together contain over one third of hu- lost cropland through conversion to manityhave recently attained cereal nonfarm uses. With population growth self-sufficiency.51 now at a near standstill, nearly all the Some of the 100 or so national food increased output can be exported. (See deficits are intentional, but most are the Figure 1-4.) result of excessive population growth, While Western Europe has been land degradation, or agricultural mis- achieving broad-based gains on the food management, or some combination of front, the Soviet Union and Eastern these. Important exporters of grain can Europe have been backsliding. Since be counted on the fingers of one hand 1978, Soviet grain production has fallen Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, in absolute terms, marking the first time and the United States. In recent years, in the postwar period that a major food- grain deficits have worsened in Africa producing country has experienced a and the Middle East, but have declined sustained production decline. Such a ordisappeared in Western Europe, China, and India. Table 1-6. Annual Growth in World Over the past decade, growth in food Grain Production, Total and Per Capita, output has slowed markedly and re- 1950-73 and 1973-85 gional food production trends h ye di- verged. The slowdown in food output Grain Grain Output dates to the first oil price increase. Be- Period OutputPopulationPer Capita tween 1950 and 1973, grain production increased at 3.1 percent per year, easily (percent) outstripping population growth. (See 1950-73 3.1 1.9 1.2 Table 1-6.) During the dozen years since, production has expanded at only 1973-85 2.2 1.8 0.4 2.2 percent per year, dramatically nar- SOURCES: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Eco- rowing the margin between the growth nomic Research Service, WorldIndices of Agruultural in food production and that of popula- and Food Production,1950-85 (unpublished print- tion. The per capita production trends out) (Washington, D.C.: 1985).

29 A Generation of Deficits (15) Kilograms dramatically raised per capita food con- 600 sumption, and largely eliminated malnu- Source: U.S. Dept.of trition." Agriculture Regional trends in food consumption are influenced not only by production 400 Western Europe trends, but by other economic and social forces as well. Per capita consumption of grain, a useful yardstick of dietary quality, ranges from a low of roughly 180 200 kilograms per year in Africa to some 800 kilograms per year in North America and Africa the Soviet Union. At the lower level, nearly all grain is consumed directly, while at the higher level, the bulk is con- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 sumed indirectly in the form of livestock products. Figure 1-4. Per Capita Grain Production in Some more-affluent societies have ap- Western Europe and Africa, 1950.85 parently reached the saturation point in consumption of livestock products. For drop is difficult to explain in agronomic example, the trend in per capita beef terms alone, suggesting that low farm- consumption in the United States has labor morale may be affecting productiv- abruptly reversed over the past decade. ity. In addition to Africa and the Middle (See Figure 1-5.) Between the early East,LatinAmericahasalsoex- fifties and the mid-seventies, per capita perienced a downturn in per capita grain beef consumption in the United States production. For this area, the produc- doubled. But after reaching 94 pounds tion peak came in 1982, the year the debt in 1976, it began 'declining, falling to 77 crisis surfaced. Foreign-exchange re- pounds in 1985.33 strictions on the import of agricultural inputs in countries such as Brazil and Mexico and the overall weakening of de- Grain deficits have worsened in mand since that year have both played a role in the downturn. Africa and the Middle East, but For the Indian subcontinent, home to have declined or disappeared in one fifth of humanity, the trends have Western Europe, China, and India. been mixed. India's per capita grain production has increased enough to eliminate grain imports, but not enough to Prior to the downturn, the U.S. De- markedly raise per capita grain con- partment of Agriculture (USDA) had sumption, which has gone up scarcely 5 projected that per capita beef consump- percent over the past generation. Con- don would continue to climb through sumption of leguminous crops, a key the end of the century. But this decade- source of protein in the largely vegetar- long decline, which reflects a widening ian diet of most Indians, has fallen by concern over the health effects of diets one third during this period. The big, rich in high-fat livestock products, may bright spot in the world food economy well continue. The combination of diet over the last decade has been China. modification in affluent industrial soci- With 22 percent of the world's people, it eties, such as the United States and Can- hasachievedcerealself-sufficiency, ada, and the declinein purchasing

0 ( i 6) State of the World-1986

Pounds mains the world's breadbasket, but it is 100 Asia, not Europe, that is now the principal market. Perhaps the most striking develop- 80 - ment in world grain trade has been the recent shift of Western Europe from im- 60 - port to export status. It is the only region that has moved decisively to the surplus side of the grain trade ledger in recent 40 history. The combination of little or no population growth and of output driven 20 - by advancing technologies and high support prices has firmly established West- Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture ern Europe as a grain export -.

Most of Europe's exportable surplus iC 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 comes from France. Until recently, much Figure 1.5. U.S. Beef Consumption of the French surplus was absorbed by Per Capita, 1950.85 the grain-deficit members of the Euro- pean Community, but with recent Com- power in key parts of the Third World munity-wide production gains,these has contributed to a much more modest deficits have diminished or disappeared, growth in the world demand for grain in forcing France to seek outside markets, recent years. suchasNorthAfricaorEastern Reflecting these various changes, the Europe." pattern of world grain trade has shifted While Western Europe has moved to dramatically over the last 35 years. At the export side of the ledger, Eastern mid-century, most of the grain that Europe, including the Soviet Union, is crossed national borders flowed across now solidly on the deficit side, second the Atlantic from North America to only to Asia. Indeed, the Soviet Union, WesternEurope.(See Table1-7.) which has shifted from buying grain Today the largest flow of grain between abroad only during poor crop years to continents is that across the Pacific, from doing so consistently, is now importing North America to Asia, now the world's more grain than any country in history. leading importer. North America re- Africa's position in world grain trade Table 1-7. The Changing Pattern of World Grain Trade, 1950-85'

Region 1950 190 1970 1980 19852 (million metric tons) North America +23 +39 +56 +131 +103 Latin America + 1 0 + 4 - 10 + 1 Western Europe -22 -25 -30 - 16 + 11 E. Eur. and Soviet Union 0 0 0 - 46 - 35 Africa 0 - 2 - 5 - 15 - 29 Asia - 6 -17 -37 - 63 - 72 Australia and New Zeal. + 3 + 6 +12 + 19 + 21 'Plus sign indicates net exports; minus sign, net Imports.=Preliminary. SOURCES. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook (Rome. various years), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Circulars, various issues.

31 A Generation of Deficits (r7) has also been changing. Although the ity."35 This same language could have region was virtually self-sufficient in been used to describe Soviet agriculture. grain as recently as 1970, its imports Though plagued with similar lethargy have climbed steadily since then, reach- and indifference among those working ing some 29 million tons in 1985. In con- the land, the two governments re- trast to East Asia, where growing grain sponded differently. The Soviets recog- imports are the result of economic gains, nized the need to restructure agricul- Africa's situation t.tems fron -. the failures ture, but they were unable to introduce of its agricultural and population poli- effective reforms because the party bu- cies. Declining per capita food produc- reaucracy was unwilling to relinquish tion since 1967 has created a situation control of agriculture. Meanwhile, Chi- vhere national food deficits in Africa are nese agriculture underwent a profound now the rule, not the exception. restructuring, providing the world with a real-life experiment in the transition from a state-controlled to a market-oriented system. After the 1949 revolution in China, IDEOLOGY AND AGRICULTURE Beijing sought to collectivize agriculture along Soviet lines. In some ways adopt- Few relationships between political sys- ing an even more strictly collectivist ap- tems and economic conditions have held proach, the government org; iized the as consistently during the last half of the entire rural population into communes century as that between socialism and and production teams. The leadership national food deficits. Under socialist concentrated on the redistribution of systems, agriculture has invariably gone land to production brigades, formation downhill. Until recently, a socialist econ- of Agricultural Producer Cooperatives, omy was, almost by definition, a food and the adoption of central planning. importer. China, Cuba, East Germany, From 1950 through the mid-seventies, Ethiopia, Poland, Romania, the Soviet grain production in the Soviet Union Union, and Vietnam are obvious exam- and China were closely parallel. (See ples. China recently altered this relation- Figure 1-6.) Only when Chinese food ship, however, when it broke ideological production fell sharply during the Great ranks and replaced its state-controlled Leap Forward and its aftermath in 1958- agricultural system with a market-ori- 62, or when Soviet output was sharply ented one, in a successful move to depressed by weather, as in 1975, did achieve food ,elf- sufficiency. the two diverge markedly.36 A comparison of farm production trends in China and the Soviet Union, theworld'slargestfood-producing Under socialist systems, agricul- countries after the United States, graph- ically illustrates the influence of ideology ture has invariably gone downhill. on agricultural productivity. In a recent review of Chinese agricultural develop ment, China analyst Frederick Surls ob- As agriculture modernizes, however, served that by the late seventies, "the it becomes increasingly dependent on a [agricultural]policies of nearly two range of off-farm physical inputs and decades had created indifference among support services and on the authority of farmers; misuse of land, fertilizers and those working the land to make on-the- other inputs; and declining productiv- spot decisions. Providing the appropri-

32 (e.8) State of the World-1986 Million Production of basic crops such as Metric grains, soybeans, and cotton increased Tons at record rates, as did production of 300 fruits, vegetables, and livestock products. Rural incomes rose, and diets im- / China proved measurably. Production gains led to a sharp curtailment of wheat im- 200 - ports, which had once averaged close to 10 million tons per year. As recently as 1980, China was the world's largest cot- Soviet Union ton importer; today, it is a leading ex- 100 porter, shipping a million bales abroad annually.38 In addition to the extensive use of ani- Source. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture mal and human wastes, the Chinese sharply boosted chemical fertilizer use 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 during this period. Central to this increase has been a rapid rise in the avail- Figure 1.6. Grain Production in the Soviet Union ability of this product. The large nitro- and China, 1950.84 gen fertilizer plants imported from the West inthemid-seventies doubled ate inputs in the proper amounts at the China's fertilizer production capacity, right times and being able to respond to making it the third largest producer, continually changing farm conditions is after the United States and the Soviet virtually impossible when decision mak- Union. Combined with rising imports, ingis centralized. Individual farmers thiS }Jushed fertilizer consumption from making day-to-day decisions in response less than 9 million tons in 1978 to nearly to market signals, changing weather, and 18 million tons in 1984, one of the few the conditions of their crops have a com- cases where use is expanding rapidly. As bined intelligence far exceeding that of a fertilizer use rises and returns diminish, centralized bureaucracy, however well which they inevitably w.11, the record ag- designed and competentiy staffed. ricultural growth of recent years is likely Recognizing this, in 1978 the Chinese to slow somewhat, however.39 decided to restructure heir agricultural These structural changes have trans- sector, shifting from tightly controlled formed the Chinese countryside, un- production units to reliance on market leashing energy and spurring innovation forces, price incentives, and individual among the hundreds of millions who initiative.Inaddition,procuremeni work the land. As of 1985, households prices for farm products were raised an have become the principal production average of roughly 20 percent, shifting unit, replacing collectives. USDA China the terms of trade between rural and analyst Terry Taylor reports: "In effect, urban areas in favor of the countryside. the responsibility system has all but The resulting divergence in production done away with collectivi.ation. Labor trends could not be more dramatic. So- organization and the management of viet grain production, suffering from production and distribution have been systemic agricultural failures, has de- left largely in the hands of individual clined by easily one fifth from its 1978 high. Meanwhile, Chinese agricultural As individual initiative takes over in production has surged ahead, surprising the Chinese countryside, it is simultane- even leaders in Beijing with its vigor.37 ously spurring production and increas- A Generation of Deficits (19) ing the efficiency of resource use. In hail Gorbachev has done in his early 1985, the Chinese produced 100 million months as leader, may boost output mar- more tons of grain than they did a de- ginally, but it will not revitalize Soviet cade earlier, one of the most spectacular agriculture. There is an inherent conflict production surges ever recorded. But between a centrally planned, state-con- they achieved this impressive record on trolled agricultural system and a highly 8 percent less land, as they reversed the productive, modern one. The more the environmentally destructive policy Soviets try to modernize their agricul- launched by Mao Zedong of plowing ture, the more obvious the conflict will marginal land for grain. While the land become." used was declining, irrigation expanded only moderately, but fertilizer use increased dramatically. The net effect of shifting to the "responsibility system" has been an impressive across - the -bc rd RETIRING OUR DEBTS increase :n the efficiency of agricultural resource use, a gain that has boosted per The world's economic difficultieses capita food consumption by nearly half pecially the proliferation of unmanage- and that has eliminated China's food able debts plaguing countries in every deficit. region and at every income levelpro- In stark contrast to this record, grain vide ample evidence of ill-conceived production in the Soviet Union has policies and misplaced priorities. En- fallen from a high of 229 million tons in forced austerity nearly always falls most 1978 to 190 million tons in 1985. Unable heavily on those least able to bear the to introduce effective reforms due to an burden of a decline in living standards intransigent party bureaucracy, the So- the poor, and particularly women and viet Union now imports one fifth or children. Ironically, the countries with more of its grain supplies. Bringing in the brightest prospects, such as Sri some 35-55 million tons of grain yearly Lanka and China, are those that have since 1978, the lion's share from the placed highest priority on improving the United States, the Soviet Union must lives of just these groups. now import m7ssive quantities of grain Few countries in the Third World continuously. The 1985 massive crop have ignited an economic improvement shortfall, the seventh consecutive one, as rapid and broad-based as that now signals a systemic deterioration of Soviet under way in China, one of the few Third agriculture that, in the absence of re- World countries that has no external form, assures grain deficits far into the debt to speak of. While many developing future.41 and industrial eccnomies have stagnated DiscussionsofSovietagriculture, or declined over the last decade, China's whether by Soviet officials, the Soviet economic expansion has accelerated. press, or Western commentators, tend Campaigns in family planning, rural to focus on specific shortages and short- health care, primary education, and fe- comings. But these are symptoms of a male literacy in the seventies laid the more fundamental problemthe nature foundation for the economic reforms in of the system itself. The principal weak- 1978 that boosted the nation's growth ness of Soviet agriculture, with its giant rates. At the same time that leaders in state farms, is that there is little incentive Beijing have fashioned policies to slow for those who live on the land to work population growth and push harvests hard and to innovate. Merely appointing ahead, they have cut the military share of more competent farm managers, as Mik- the country's budget by nearly half.43 34 (20) State of the World-1986 Even though average incomesin mortality rate of 70, among the highest China are still lower than in most Third in the region. In addition, its income dis- World countries, levels of health and tribution is one of the world's least equi- longevity are comparable to those in in- table: The average income of the wealth- dustrial societies. Indeed, the country's iest one fifth of the population is 33 birth rate, infant mortality rate, and life times higher than that of the poorest expectancy at birth rank closer to those fifth.46 of the United States than to the remainder of the Third World. (See Table 1-8.) Its birth rate of 19 is only slightly above Widespre4d environmental decline that in industrial countries. Its infant mortality rate of 38 is close to that in only exacerbates Africa's steadily some American cities. And life expect- deteriorating financial position. ancy, at 65 years, denote iisting con- quest of major childhood diseases. Sri Lanka's infant mortality rate of 37 and Mexico, $97 billion in debt, is in much life expectancy of 69 indicate equally im- the same position. With an infant mor- pressive progress, and with an average tality rate of 50 and an income disparity income of scarcely $300 per year.44 of 20 to 1, painful adjustments lie ahead. China's low birth rate has allowed the Such fundamental social inequities may country to concentrate on providing bet- prove incompatible with the kind of eco- ter opportunities for its children. Nine- nomic recovery needed to manage even ty-five percent of Chinese children are partial repayment of Latin American enrolled in primary school, and the deb ts.47 country's 80 percent literacy rateis Africa's principal deficits are agro- among the highest in the Third World. nomic arid ecological, bu widespread Women have perhaps gained most from environmental decline only exacerbates these advances. Nine girls out of ten are the continent's steadily deteriorating enrolled in school, and Chinese women financialposition. Even though sus- can expect to live to age 69, longer than tained economic recovery in Africa does in any other developing country.45 not appear imminent, China and Sri Sustainableeconomic growthhas Lanka demonstrate that basic improve- eluded societies that neglect these basic ments in living standards and the envi- indicators of well-being. The conse- ronment do not depend on high in- quences of this neglect cannot be offset comes. by deficit financing, as Latin America's Effective soil conservation and refor- principal debtor countries demonstrate. estation efforts, based on people rather Brazil has incurred its $104-billion debt than on capital, can stabilize Africa's without noticeably reducing its infant land and restore the hydrological cycle,

Table 1-8. Basic Economic and Social Indicators for Industrial World, China, and Rest of Third World, 1985 Industrial Rest of World China Third World Per Capita GNP (dollars) 9,380 290 880 Birth Rate (per 1,000 population) i5 19 36 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 18 38 101 Life Expectancy at Birth (years) 73 65 56 SOURCE: Population Reference Bureau,1985 World Population Data Sheet(Washington, D.C.: 1985). 35 A Generation of Deficits (2r) laying a foundation for better harvests. Me of roughly 1 in 640. Starvation's vic- In virtually every African country today, tims are disproportionately children; in forests are in decline and croplands are contrast, the victims of cigarette-linked eroding; China, meanwhile, has begun heart attacks and cancer, nearly always increasing its tree cover while boosting adults,often die intheir economic harvests. prime. (See Chapters 8 and 9.) Both One region of the world where eco- thesetollsare preventable;neither nomic trends are not clear-cut is the In- should be considered tolerable in mod- dian subcontinent, whose population ern society. will reach 1 billion within a matter of When life spans shortened by smoking years, barring an unanticipated decline and other "life-style" diseases go unat- in birth rates. By some measures India, tended long enough, the premature by far the most populous country in the mortality may begin to erase the gains in region, is doing well; by others, it re- life expectancy achieved by assuring mains in jeopardy. India has achieved child survival. The Soviet Union may be food self-sufficiency, but it has done so the first industrial country to suffer such by ending imports with per capita grain a reversal: Soviet men now have a consumption of a rather meager 185 shorter life expectancy than they did just kilograms,barelyabovesubsistence a few years ago. Although an official ex- needs. This contrasts with China, which planation has not been offered, 65 per- ended food imports when per capita cent of Soviet men smoke, nearly twice consumption was at 290 kilograms, a the U.S. rate. Smoking-related deaths level that largely eliminates undernutri- are compounded by widespread alcohol- tion. India has attained the economic ism. Although a national campaign was base needed for rapid progress, but the inaugurated in 1985 to curb excessive weight of an additional 16 million peo- drinking, no such effort has yet been ple each year threatens to undermine aimed at cigarettes.50 economic and social improvements.48 Deficits of many kinds plague the Although the expectation of a longer world in 1986, We have begun to recog- life is one of the most heartening indica- nize that Third World debts are not ex- tors of progress toward improved living clusively a Third World concern, and standards, mortality trends sometimes that solutions will require a partnership reveal astonishing gaps in well-being of debtors and creditors. Another key even in the wealthiest societies. For ex- point needs to be acknowledgedthat ample, in the United States, smoking- the many fiscal, ecological, and social related diseases now kill some 375,000 debts we incur today come at our chil- people each year.49 dren's expense. We can begin to retire Cigarettes brought premature death our debts by recognizing that policies to 1 in every 640 Americans in 1965 a that take seriously the interests of the rate that, if adjusted for population, ap- next generation usually best serve the proaches the death toll of Africa's fam- current generation as well.

36 2

Assessing Ecological Decline

Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf

Ecologistshave long lamentedthe PROFILES OF ECOLOGICAL world's casual approach toward altering ecosystems with scant understanding of DECLINE the consequence.. Two recent studies one by the World Bank on Ethiopia's Accumulating evidence from ecology, deterioratingagriculturalecosystem, agronomy, and hydrology indicates that and one by a Yale University researcher sustained overuse of biological systems on the effects of air pollution and acid can set in motion changes that are self- rain on northeastern U.S. forestshave reinforcing. Each stage of deterioration assessed the effect of growing stress, hastens ..he onset of the next. When de- physical or chemical, on ecosystems. structive ecological change is coupled Both trace the stages of deterioration as :th rapid human population growth in pressures intensify. Each reaches the subsistence economies, the stage for same conclusion: If the stresses are great human tragedy is set. enough, the ecosystem will deteriorate World Bank energy analyst and ecolo- and eventually collapse.' gist Kenneth Newcombe has described For a number of scientists, this comes how complex, interrelated systems un- as no surprise. A small community of ravel through several stages. His model, ecologists have been warning for years based on fieldwork in Ethiopia, portrays that the stresses caused by population a cascading decline in biological and ec- growth and pollution can lead to ecosys- onomic productivity triggered by loss of tem deterioration. Such deterioration is tree cover. According to Newcombe, as now adversely affecting economic trends people seek new agricultural land, natu- in scores of countries, mostly in the ral forests retreat before the plow. With- Third World. And for some govern- out trees, mineral nutrients are no ments, raping with the economic conse- longer recycled from deep soil layers. As quences of ecological deterioration has this nutrient cycle is breached, soil fertil- become a full-time challenge. ity begins to decline. In this first stage, Assessing Ecological Decline (23) wood supplies remain sufficient and the ants' lack of purchasing power is com- gradual erosion of cropland fertility is pounded by absolute shortages of food imperceptible.2 at any price. As rural and village populations grow, This model of an accelerating cycle of markets appear for wood, both for con- degradation is now being confirmed in struction and for household fuels. Cut- portions of Africa. A joint U.N. Develop- ting wood from remnant forests gener- ment Program/WorldBankreport ates income for peasant families, who points out that "this transition from the generally burn crop residues and animal first to the final stage is in process right dung in their own households. This in across Ethiopia and has reached the ter- turn interrupts two more nutrient cycles: minal phase in parts of Tigre and Eri- Removing crop residues and dive Ming trea."3 At a World Bank workshop in dung from fields degrades soil structure Botswana in March 1985, Newcombe and leaves the land more vulnerable to warned "There is evidence that [the final erosion. On sloping fields, annual soil stage] has already been reached in some erosion of 50-100 tons per hectare is areas of several countries in Southern common. The depletion of remaining Africa and that virtually every country forests then accelerates, and the loss of has areas that have reached [the point at soil fertility begins to reduce crop yields. which wood gathering has overtaken Once nearby stands of trees are gone, land clearing as a cause of deforesta- dung and crop residues tr,rn up in local tion]."* markets where formerly only wood was sold. The steady loss of nutrients and organic matter from croplands severely Once nearby stands of trees are limits crop yields and the ability of pastures to support livestock. A greater gone, dung and crop residues turn share of family cash income comes from up i a local markets where formerly the sale of dung than from that of food only vood was sold. crops, for erratic crop yields prove barely sufficient even for subsistence. Eventually, cow dung becomes the The cascading effect Newcombe de- main fuel source in villages and thus the scribes results from Li3ruption of the main cash crop from nearby farms. Rural self-regulating mechanisms of natural families use crop residues for cooking systems on which humans depend. The and as fodder for their livestock, which distinct stages of decline, and the event can no longer be supported by grazing that pushes the system into instability, land. Pervasive topsoil depletion leaves can be identified. Newcombe believes a farmers vulnerable to total crop failure criticalpointoccursinsubsistence during even routine dry seasons. In mar- economies when more trees are cut for kets, both food and fuel prices rise ra- fuel than to make way for farmland. pidly. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Orga- When this final stage is reached in a nization (FAO) estimates that 60-70 per- subsistence economy, biological produc- cent of the outright clearing of forests tivity is destined to collapse. Families and woodlands in tropical Africa is for can no longer produce enough food for agriculture. In many countries, however, themselves or their livestock, let alone wood collection for fuel and other uses for markets. A massive exodus from exceeds the sustainable yield of remain- rural areas begins, often triggered by ing accessible forests. A 1980 World drought that could formerly have been Bank study of West Africa showed that tolerated. Famine is widespread; peas- fuelwood demand exceeded estimated 38 (24) State of the World-1986 sustainable yields in 11 of the 13 coun- Million triessurveyed. Only in Senegal and Cubic Ghana was the annual growth of remain- Meters ing woodlands believed sufficient to sat- 150 isfy demand.5 Source: Derived from The aegree of imbalance between de- World Bank data mand and sustainable yields of wood Fuelwood varies widely. For example, in both 100 Consumptirn semiarid Mauritania and mountainous Rwanda, firewood demand is 10 times the sustainable yield of remaining forests. In Kenya, the ratio is 5 to 1; in Ethi- 50 opia, Tanzania, and Nigeria, demand is 2.5 times the z.astainable yield, and in New Tree Growth .-....., Sudan, it is roughly double.6 Sudan's wood imbalance illustrates the interaction between rapidly expand- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 ing populations and their biological support systems. Estimates based on World Figure 2.1. Fuelwood Consumption and New lire Bank data indicate that national fuel- Growth in Sudan, 1950-80, With Projections to 2000 wood consumption crossed the sustainable yield threshold somewhere around 1965. From then on, fuelwood con- Like Newcombe, he identified several sumption exceeded new tree growth, stages in the deterioration of forests. At gradually diminishing both the forest first, pollution stress is minimal, and stock and each year's growth.? (See Fig- effects on the forest ecosystem are negli- ures 2-1 and 2-2.) gible. As pollution levels increase, the During the first few years after the sus- more sensitive species begin to suffer, tainable yield threshold was crossed. es,- and the overall structure of the forest ests in Sudan changed little. After 20 Million years, forested area had contracted by Cubic about one fifth. In the next 20 years, Meters however, expanding demand is likely to Jeplete all the remaining we )dlands. 3,000 During the first half of this 40-year span there is little evidence of the problems coming in the second half. But once the ---,...... Stock of Trees mid-point is passed, only extraordinary 2,000 - efforts in family planning and tree planting can halt the system's complete collapse. An analysis of chemical stress on for- 1,000 - estecosystemsinthenortheastern United States by ecologist F.H. Bor- Source: Derived from mann of Yale University's School of For- World Bank data estry resembles Newcombe's analysis of ( I physical stress on rural ecosystems in 1950 19600 197 0 1980; 19900 2000 Africa. Specifically, Bormann addressed Figure 2-2. Standing Stock 0.1 'frees in Sudan, the effects of air pollution and acid rain. 1950.80, With Projections to 2000

39 Assessing Ecological Decline (25) ecosystem begins to change. Typically, creased two and a half times, reaching the larger species are the first to go, fol- 513 million in 1983. Meanwhile, live- lowed by shrubs and herbs. Over time, stock numbers have expanded by three as pollution stress accumulates, produc- fourths, increaser g to 518 million, tivity drops. And the ability of the eco- Because little grain is available for system to repair itself diminishes.8 feeding livestock, the continent's 176 As the vegetative density is reduced, mil>n cattle, 190 million sheep, and so too :a the amount of nutrients held in 152 million goats are supported almost the system. At this point, increases in entirely by grazing or browsing. Every- rainfall runoff and the erosion of soil be- where outside the tsetse fly belt, live- come noticeable. The export of soil and stock are vital :cfr the economy. But in nutrients to adjacent streams and lakes many countries, herds and flocks are de- can be severely disruptive. In the ab- stroying the grass resource that sustains sence of human intervention to remove thermic) the source of chemical stress, the ecosys- The U.N. report, by FAO, reveals the tem will continue to deteriorate, and extent of overgrazing in the nine nations eventually collapse. As graphic illustra- of southern Africa: "For some countries tions of this final stage of ecosystem col- and major areas of others, present herds lapse, Bormann cites the degraded eco- exceed the carrying capacity by 50 to 100 systems that now exist around strong percent. This has led to deterioration of sources of air pollution, such af, Copper the soilthereby lowering the carrying Hill, Tennessee, and Sudbury, Ontario. capacity even moreand to severe soil The pollution-related deterioration of erosion in an accelerating cycle of degra- forest ecosystems is difficult to analyze dation."n Heavy grazing, combined partly because pollutants are varied and with declining rainfall, gradually wide-ranging. Seemingly healthy forests changes the character of rangeland veg- may act as a sink for pollutants over a etation and its capacity to support live- long period of time before showing stock. stress. On the other hand, chemical As grazing and wood gathering in- stress often weakens the more sensitive crease in semiarid regions, rapidly re- species, making them more vulnerable producing annual grasses replace peren- to natural events such as drought, frost, nialgrassesand woodyperennial attacks by insects, or disease. An un- shrubs. The loss of trees such as the precedented insect outbreak, for exam- acacias in the Sahel (the band of semi- ple, could be the result of a physiological arid savanna that extends across Africa weakening of the plant species, leaving it south of the Sahara) means less forage in open to exploitation by insects. the dry season, when the protein-rich Another study that charted pressures acacia pods formerly fed livestock on on ecosystems dealt with grasslands in otherwise barren rangeland. Annual nine countries of southern Africa that grasses that come to dominate the land- are being degraded by physical stress. scape are far more sensitive to water (See Chapter 4 for further discussion of stress than perennials, and may not ger- this ecosystem.) The problem is particu- minate at all in drought years. A range larly noticeable in Africa, where live- already shrinking as cultivated land ex- stock numbers have expanded nearly as pands can no longer sustain local herds, fast as the human population. In 1950, even in wet years. Africa had 219 million people and a live- As Africa's grasslands deteriorate, the stock population of 295 million. Since composition of its livestock population is then, the continent's population has in- changing. From 1950 to 1970, ti.e conti-

4 0 (26) State of the World-1986 Table 2-1. Changes in Africa's Cattle, ration: sand dune encroachment, the Sheep, and Goat Populations, 1950-70 deterioration of rangelands, forest de- and 1970-83 pletion, the deterioration of irrigation systems, and problems in rainfed agri- Average Annual Change culture. Not one of the 100 indicators- 1950-70 1970-83 5 for each of the 20 countriesshowed any improvement. Roughly one fifth of (percent) the reading- slid not change significantly Cattle +2.15 +0.83 during the t.ght years under review. Al- Sheep +1.67 +2.36 most half of the measurements showed a Goats +1.67 +2.19 moderate deterioration. And over a SOURCE: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, quarter revealed serious deterioration, Production Yearbook (Rome: various years). indicating a marked reduction in the ecosystem's capacity to support eco- nent's cattle herd grew ever 2 percent nomic activity. per year, somewhat faster than that of The climatic, ecological, economic, either sheep or goats. (See Table 2-1.) and demographic trends reflected in Since1970, herd growth has been Berry's survey are interdependent and halved, while that of the sheep and goat continuously interacting. All show signs populations hasactuallyaccelerated. of the self-reinforcing deterioration that This shift toward livestock dependent on Kenneth Newcombe hasalso docu- woody foliage reflects a period of unre- mented, a cycle of degradation that lenting rainfall decline that has dimin- progressively robs the land of its resil- ished forage grasses, which in turn in- ience and reduces the economic choices tensifies pressure on the woodlands that open to people who depend on it. also supply household fuel. Although environmental deterioration has now reached the point where it is visibly shaping Africa's economic future, little effort has been devoted to systematically measuring changes in the ECONOMIC COSTS continent's support systems. One nota- Ecological deterioration, an insidious ble exception to this is a survey done for process resulting from mismanagement the United Nations Environment Pro- of resources,eventuallyaffectseco- gramme by Leonard Berry of Clark Uni- nomic development adversely. Real pro- versity. (See Table 2-2.) Initially under- duction costs and imports rise, while taken for 14 countries and covering the land and labor productivity, output, ex- period 1977-84 (see State of the World- ports, and tax revenues fall. Whether the 1985), the assessment has since been ex- evidence is regional water shortages in panded to cover some 20 countries and the United States, firewood shortages in updated through 1985. The inclusion of India, or food shortages in Africa, the eastern and southern Africa confirms the relationship between wasted and abused sobering findings of the earlier study. resources and economic stresses has be- The countries included in the latest come readily apparent. Even more ap- assessment, representing a cross section parent is the tendency of ecologically in- of the continent, have a combined popu- duced economic declinetoignore lation of 281 million people, just over national boundaries. half Africa's total. The survey focused on Excessive pressures on land and land five manifestations of ecological deterio- mismanagement have led to widespread

41 Assessing Ecological Decline (27) Table 2-2. Desertification Trends in Selected African Countries, 1977-85

Deterioration Rain-fed Sand Dune Deterioration Forest of Irrigation Agriculture Country Encroachment in Rangelands Depletion Systems Problems

Botswana 0 o 0 Burkina Faso ++ Cameroon Chad ++ ++ ++ ++ Ethiopia ++ ++ Guinea 0 ++ Kenya ++ Lesotho n.a. ++ o ++ Mali ++ ++ Mauritania ++ ++

Niger ++ ++ Nigeria Senegal ++ Somalia ++ Sudan + + Swaziland n.a. ++ o ++ Tanzania n.a. ++ n.a. ++ Uganda ++ 0 Zambia n.a. n.a. n.a. Zimbabwe n.a. ++ ++ Key. o = stable, + = some increase, ++ = significant increase, n.a. = not available or not applicable. SOURCE. Adapted from Leonard Berry, "Desertification: Problems of Restoring Productivity in Dry Areas of Africa," presented to the 1985 Annual Meeting Symposium, African Development Bank, Brazzaville, Congo, May 8, 1985. cropland degradation on every conti- of land degradation. But some14na- nent. Worldwide, agricultural output tions have failed to do so. (See Table has more than doubled over the past 2-3.)Ranging in size from tiny Guyana generation, though trends in cropland in Latin America to Nigeria, the most productivity have varied widely. At the populous country in Africa, they have upper end of the spectrum, some coun- experienced an average decline in grain tries have tripled land productivity. Oth- yields of roughly one fifth. ers have actually experienced a decline. Of these14countries, the most pro- In addition to the degradation of land nounced decline occurred in Sudan, already under cultivation, average crop where the average yield in1982-84was yields have also been reduced by the ex- 44percent below that of1950-52. This tension of agriculture onto shallow soils, is somewhat ironic, because as recently steeply sloping land, or the ;mid fringe of as the late seventies this country was cropping regions." slated to become the breadbasket for the Since mid-century, the combination of Middle East, an area in which its food- advancing technology and rising invest- deficit, capital-surplus neighbors could ment in agriculture has enabled most invest. Instead, land degradation and countries to override the negative effects declining rainfall in the region have con-

42 56 (28) State of the World-1986 Table 2-3. Countries with Declining Grain Yields Per Hectare, 1950-52 to 1982-84

Country 1950-52 1982-84 Decrease (kilograms) (percent) Sudan 780 436 44 Tanzania 1,271 900 29 Niger 458 379 17 Mozambique 610 521 15 Zambia 952 819 14

Ghana 764 686 10 Lebanon 869 786 10 Rwanda 1,122 1,010 10 Nigeria 760 694 9 Guyana 2,231 2,099 6

Iraq 703 657 6 Kampuchea 1,002 939 6 Algeria 648 613 5 Zaire 902 878 3 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, World Indices of Agncultural and Food Production, 1950-84 (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1985). verted Sudan, one of the world's poorest not necessarily those with the most seri- countries, into a nation of refugee camps ous land degradation; they are only the and feeding stations. ones where the advances in agricultural Nigeria, the most populous country to technology have not been sufficient to experience a decline in land productiv- override the negative effects of such ity, is one of three oil-exporting coun- deterioration or of the addition of mar- tries with falling yields. Clearly, the mere ginal land to the cropland base. In many availability of capital does not necessar- countries, cropland degradation is being ily prevent land degradation. And politi- offset by the heavy use of chemical ferti- cal conflicts, such as the war between lizer. Over time, as energy becomes Iraq and Iran, can divert both capital and more costly, this substitution of artificial human resources from agriculture on a for natural fertility will becomv, more scale that affects land productivity. difficult. Iraq's yields have declined 6 percent Just as cropland degradation reduces since the early fifties. Waterlogging and food supplies in Third World countries, salting of its soils bode ill for future land degradation of woodlands reduces fuel productivity, yet agriculture is not get- supplies. After a point, the loss of tree ting the attention it deserves. Yields in cover translates into firewood scarcity Iran have increased by only 5 percent, and rising prices, a trend that can clearly compared with the global average of 97 be seen in Addis Ababa. During the 13 percent. The war is hindering agricul- years from 1970 through 1983, firewood tural development and contributing to prices in Addis Ababa more than tripled, environmental degradation in both na- but even this was modest compared with tions.13 some other parts of Africa and even with The countries listed in Table 2-3 are other locations in Ethiopia. In the eco-

43 Assessing Ecological Decline (29) Table 2-4. India: Prices of Firewood in Selected Cities, 1960, 1975, and 1983 (current prices) Ratio of City 1960 1975 1983 1983 to 1960 (rupees per 100 kilograms) Bangalore 4.7 21.0 50 i? 10.64 Indore 5.7 24.3 60.0 10.53 Bombay 8.5 36.1 85.7 10.08 Kanpur 6.1 21.0 52.3 8.57 Delhi 10.1 85.0 8.42 Hyderabad 6.6 23.2 55.0 8.33 Madras 8.2 25.4 59.1 7.21 Calcutta 9.3 61.3 6.59 Ahmedabad 9.0 28.3 55.5 6.17 SOURCE. Based on data in Centre for Science and Environment, The State of India's Environment, 1984 -85 (New Delhi: 1985). logically devastated provinces of Eritrea OPEC export embargoes, this ban did and Tigre, fuelwood prices in the early not aim to raise firewood pric. 3 else- eighties were roughly double those in where, but to bring down the pnce paid Addis." by the state's residents." India, too, is facing a fuelwood short- In some Third World countries, urban age. As firewood becomes more scarce, dwellers spend one fourth of their in- India's urban centers import wood from come on cooking fuel. Government offi- ever greater distances. Delhi, for exam- cialsin New Delhi already question ple, now ships firewood from the states where India's projected year 2000 popu- of Orissa,Bihar,Maharashtra, and lation of 994 million will find the fuel to Assam, the latter some 1,000 kilometers cook their food. The shift from firewood away. Even with these imports from dis- to cow dung and crop residues that in- tant states, the number of firewood rail viriably accompanies a loss of tree cover wagons unloaded in Delhi plummeted is well under way in India, as data for from 12,424 in 1981-82 to 7,577 just Madhya Pradesh indicate." (See Table two years later. This decline in deliveries 2-5.) helps explain why firewood prices in Although widespread air pollution Delhi were eight times higher in 1983 and acid rain are recent compared with than in 1960. (See Table 2-4.) Bombay Table 2-5. Household Fuel Consumption and Bangalore experienced even greater price hikes during the same period." in the Indian State of Madhya Pradesh A survey undertaken in the late seven- Fuel Quantity ties in Madhya Pradesh, an Indian state with a population of 52 million, located (million tons) in the geographic center of the Indian Cow Dung 9.64 subcontinent, showed that 26 of its 45 Firewood 9.47 districts faced a fuelwood deficit. Follow- Crop Residues 6.93 ing this survey, the state-India's lead- SOURCE: Centre for Science and Environment, The ing exporter of firewood-banned such State of India's Environment, 1984 -85 (New Delhi: exports in August 1981. In contrast with 1985).

44 (30) State of the World-1986 soil erosion, some of their costsare be- cutting or irom air pollution (chemical ginning to surface. A study by the stresses), also affect the hydrological Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences cycle. As land is degraded, its abilityto estimated annual damage from acid rain absorb and retain water diminishes, and to be at least $1.5 billion, with the loss of the share of rainfall thatruns off, return- forests accounting for most of the total. ing directly to the ocean, increases. One With this Academy report, Czecho- consequence is a reduction in aquifer re- slovakia became one of the firstcoun- charge and falling water tables. tries to recognize the effect of air pollu- A project undertaken at Hatcliffe Re- tion and acid rain on farm productivity, search Station in Zimbabwe shows how thus linking fossil fuel combustion and land use changes affect rainfall runoff agricultural output." when a natural grassland is cleared for cultivation. Agronomist Henry Elwell measured the runoff from test plotson The Czechoslovakian Academy ofgently sloping savanna land under dif- Sciences estimated annual damage ferent cover, ranging from undisturbed from acid rain to be at least $1.5 natural vegetation to bare soil. (See billion. Table 2-6.) He found that as theun- grazed savanna was replaced by bare land, the share of rainfall running off increased from 1 percent to 35. The 4.5 According to the Academy, increasing percent slope of the test plots at Hat- soil acidity and air pollution are ad- cliffe is gentle compared with land under versely affecting crops, preventing the the plow in many Third Worldcoun- full gains in yields expected from the tries. tripling in fertilizer use since 1960. Re- Another consequence of increased ferring to soil poisoning from acid rain, runoff is a greater frequency and severity the report noted that increased acidity of floods. The Swedish Red Crossre- was altering soils by chemically tying up ports that the number of floods world- nutrients essential to plants and releas- wide classified as severe jumped from 15 ing aluminum and other toxic metals. in the sixties to 22 in the seventies,an The Academy estimated that arresting increase of one half. The annual death this process in severely affected wood- toll from these disasters climbed sixfold, lands would require spreading limeat the rate of 5 to 10 tons per hectare." Table 2-6. Rainfall Runoff Under West Germany is deeply concerned Varying Land Uses at Ratcliffe Research with both the aesthetic and economic Station, Zimbabwe (4.5 percent slope) costs of losing its forests to air pollution and acid rain. As early as 1983, the Ba- Share of Annual varian Agricultural Ministry estimated Rainfall Vegetative Cover Running Off the loss of trees in southern Germanyat $1.2 billion. Ironically, in the shortrun, (percent) damage to Gei man forests is expected to Natural Vegetation' 1 increase harvesting and reduce timber Clipped Grass 8 prices. Over the longer term, however, Soybeans 20 timber prices will rise as the forested Bare Soil 35 areadwinuiesandtreesbecome scarce." 'Mostly tall g:ass, ungrazed. SOURCE: Personal communication with H.A. Elwell, The loss of tree cover and land degra- Institute of Agricultural Engineering, Ministry of dation, whether from excessive firewood Agriculture, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 2, 1985. 45 Assessing Ecological Decline (3r) a reflection of the greater severity of the its electricity from hydropower genera- flooding and a growth in size of vulnera- tion had to switch entirely to thermal ble populations." power plants, costing the electricity Some countries have recently lost val- company an estimated $100 million. uable stocks of tropical timber to fire, These examples illustrate how a decline until recently a rare phenomenon in a in rainfall can markedly reduce output of tropical rain forest. Such areas are nor- both the agricultural and energy sec- mally resistant to fire, but they have been tors." dried out from tightening slash-and- The livestock sector, too, has been burn cycles, from tree cutting for timber, greatly affected by the deterioration of or from firewood gathering, and they grasslandsandthedisruptionsas- have consequently become vulnerable in sociated with rainfalldeclines. The drought years. In the spring of 1983, a World Bank reports, for example, that forest fire in Kalimantan burned for Botswana lost 600,000 head of cattle in three months, eventually consuming 2 1983 and 1984, sharply reducing its million hectares of tropical rain forest." long-term capacity to export livestock The Ivory Coast also experienced a products. Lesotho lost 58,000 head of massive forest fire in that year. Like the cattle and 243,000 sheep. During the one in Kalimantan, the triggering event same period, Zimbabwe lost an es- was a sharp reduction in rainfall. Before timated 50,000 head of cattle. At least a it was over, the fire in the Ivory Coast dozen other African countries have ex- had destroyed some 450,000 hectares of perienced similar herd reductions dur- forest, much of it high-value tropical ing the eighties, and for the same rea- hardwoods. In neighboring Ghana, for- sons. In many situations herds will be est fires during the same period con- rebuilt, but in some, where rangeland sumed an estimated 10 percent of the degradation is severe and topsoil has country's cocoa plantations, reducing been lost, the liquidation may be final.26 the earnings from the country's princi- In Africa, where 40 percent of the peo- pal export crop.23 ple live in countries with falling land Declines in rainfall affect not only productivity, ecological deterioration is rain-fed agriculture but also irrigated ag- slowing economic growth and in some riculture and hydroelectric generation. cases causing economic decline. On a For example, the World Bank observed continent where agriculture is the pri- that in 1984 Ghana's generation of elec- mary livelihood, this decline has con- tricity from hydropower, its principal tributed to the roughly one-fifth reduc- source of this power, was three fourths tion in per capita income since 1970. As lower than the level of just two years long as Africa's population continues to earlier.Thisledto a shutdown of expand rapidly, ecological degradation Ghana's aluminum smelter, which re- is likely to continue, and its economic duced export earnings by some $18 mil- consequences will no doubt worsen." lion in 1983. When added to the loss of cocoa exports, estimated at some $76 million, and the need for increased food imports as a result of the decline in rainfall,the adverse balance-of-payments THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES effect easily exceeds $100 million." The energy sector of the Ivory Coast Of all the social consequences of ecolog- was also deeply affected by the decline in ical deterioration, falling per capita food rainfall. In December 1983, this nation production and the increase in malnutri- that normally obtains some two thirds of tion and mortality that often follows are (32) State of the World-1986 undoubtedly the most serious. Some and poultry industries. Taiwan is follow- countries have offset decLnes inper ing similar policies. capita food production with commercial The decline in per capita grainpro- imports or food aid, but in many others, duction in most countries is not exclu- belt-tightening is the only possiblere- sively due to ecological deterioration. sponse. For those living in countries Iziattention to population policy and the where average consumption is already overall neglect of agriculture have also close to the subsistence level, furtherre- contributed. Failed or nonexistentpop- ductions lead to increased malnutrition, ulation policies can both expand de- rising death rates, and, in severecases, mand for food and undermine agricul- famine of the sort that has plaguedmany turalsupportsystems.Inessence, African countries in the mid-eighties. population growth hastens theprocess of ecological decline. Virtually all the countries with falling land productivity (see Table 2-3) also Failed or nonexistent population experienced a decline in per capita grain policies can both expand demand production. The only exceptionswere for food and undermine agricul- Zambia, Tanzania, and Guyana, where tural support systems. the cultivated area grew faster than the population and more than offset the decline in land productivity. Although the spotlight in recentyears The unprecedented technological ad- has focused on the agricultural decline vance and economic progress of the past inAfrica,the Middle East hasex- generation notwithstanding, more than perienced an even greater fall inper 40 developing countries are producing capita grain production. Iraq, Jordan, less grain per person in the mid .eighties and Lebanon have experienced declines than they did in the early fifties. (See since mid-century that range from 61to Table 2-7.) The declines range widely, 85 percent. In almost every Middle East- from 85 percent in Lebanon to 2percent ern country, the growth in agricultural or less in Bangladesh and Costa Rica. output is falling further behind popula- Not by coincidence, the great majority of tion growth with each passingyear. the countries are in Africa, the Middle This situation has attracted less atten- East, Central America, and the Andean tion than Africa's because the falling regionareas where ecological deterio- grain output per person has been offset ration is proceeding most rapidly. To- by growth in oil-financed grain imports. gether, these nations are home toover As long as oil exports are availableto 700 million people, some 15percent of finance rising food deficits in the Middle the world tota1.28 East, agricultural deteriorationcan be In a few industrial countries, suchas ignored. But some day these countries Japan and Taiwan (not included in Table will find themselves with far largerpopu- lations, 2-7), declines follow a planned shift of withlittleoil remaining to financefoodimports, labor to the nonfarm sector. Japanese andwitha thoroughly degraded agriculturalre- agricultural policy has been designedto source base. maintain essential self-sufficiency in rice, The two principal exceptions to the the national food staple, while greatly agricultural deterioration in the Middle increasing imports of the feedgrains East are Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel consumed by its burgeoning livestock has worked hard to restore its agricul- Assessing Ecological Decline (33) Table 2-7. Developing Countries with Declining Grain Production Per Person, 1950-52 to 1982-84

Country 1950-52 1982-84 Decrease (kilograms/year) (percent) North Africa Algeria 219 79 64 Libya 106 69 35 Morocco 258 177 31 Tunisia 196 154 21 Sub-Saharan Africa Mozambique 97 36 63 Mali 242 134 45 Angola 81 45 44 Kenya 226 139 38 Nigeria 171 111 35 Ghana 66 44 33 Uganda 155 107 31 Guinea 131 95 27 Rwanda 58 43 26 Zaire 39 32 18 Benin 124 103 17 Senegal 139 118 15 Cameroon 112 97 13 Togo 121 108 11 Liberia 153 139 9 Niger 286 260 9 Sudan 114 104 9 Sierra Lecrie 155 143 8 Ethic,pia 202 189 6 Burkina Faso 181 177 2 Middle East Lebanon 54 8 85 Jordan 138 44 68 Iraq 269 105 61 Syria 315 215 32 Iran 193 176 9 Turkey 472 446 5 Latin America Haiti 135 75 44 Honduras 194 133 31 Nicaragua 188 136 28 Panama 174 136 22 Chile 192 153 20 Peru 105 85 19 El Salvador 142 129 9 Cuba 55 52 5 Costa Rica 142 141 1 Asia Kampuchea 401 267 33 Afghanistan 417 324 22 Nepal 296 243 18 Bangladesh 240 235 2

SOURCE.U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, World Indices of Agricultural and Food Production, 1950-81 (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1985). fr

(34) State of the World-1986 tural productivity to the levels that once rose from mid - century through the late existed in the region, literally converting sixties. Thus the declines since the late desert into gardens. Its achievements sixties have been even more precipitous demonstrate the potential for reversing than those shown for the longer time pe- the worsening situation in the Middle riod covered in the table. East and elsewhere if the political com- There are nine countries in Latin mitment exists. America and the Caribbean with falling Saudi Arabia has also achieved im- per capita grain production. They tend pressive agricultural advances in recent to be the smaller nations, concentrated years, but with exorbitant investments of in Central America and the southern oil money. For example, it has greatly Andes. Of the three countries astride the expanded wheat production through the southern Andes, grain production per use of costly water drawn from aquifers capita in two, Chile and Peru, has de- far beneath the earth's surface. Unfortu- clined by one fifth since mid-cei.tury. nately, this may not be financially sus- Only Bolivia was able to eke out any gain tainable over the long term, since it is at all. based on a wheat support price of $28 a As a continent, Asia has fared well on bushelseven times the 1985 world the food front, largely because of pro- price of $4 per bushe1.29 duction gains in China and India. Of the The Middle East is unique in that it is four countries where per capita grain experiencing simultaneously some of production has fallen, Kampuchea and the most severe ecological degradation Afghanistan have been torn by war for and worst political turbulence of any re- the last several years. The other two gion. The longstanding conflicts be- Nepal and Bangladeshare suffering tween Israel and its Arab neighbors, the from severe ecological degradation. In- internal disintegration of Lebanon, and deed, the deforestation of Nepal is not the war between Iran and Iraq that has only increasing soil erosion and under- stretched on for some five years are ex- mining agriculture there, it is contribut- acting a heavy long-term cost. ing to the severity of floods that destroy In North Africa, per capita grain pro- crops and trigger famine downstream. duction is falling in the entire northern In Bangladesh, which ranks with Ethi- tier of countries except Egypt. Ironically, opia, Chad, and Mali as one of the these countries occupy the lands that world's poorest countries, famine is were once the granary of the Roman Em- never more than one flood away. pire. Algeria and Libya now import over Assessing the effect on nutrition of half the grain they consume. In sub- land degradation aud falling per capita Saharan Africa, the great majority of food productionis hindered by the people live in ountries where per capita paucity of ,earch on this linkage. One food production isfalling.In seven of the few studies that links population countries, with about a third of the conti pressure with soil erosion and nutrition nent's population, per capita grain pro- is a World Bank report by William Jones duction has declined between one third and Roberto Egli. They note that in the and one half since mid- century. Great Lakes Highlands of Rwanda, The comparison of yield data for the Burundi, and Zaire: "As population den- early fifties and mid-eighties in Table sities have increased, particularly where 2-7 does not fully convey the gravity of land is most scarce, fanners have turned the situation in Africa, since in many to tubers as a starch source. Statistics countriesindeed, for Africa as a whole show a consistent and continuous dis- grain production per person actually placement of grains and legumes Oy tub- 49 Assessing Ecological Decline (35) ers, which yield more starch per hec- risome of these consequences are food tare."30 As farm sizes grow smaller and riots and the forced migration of people land productivity declines, farmers plant in search of sustenance, both of which cassava, yams, or potatoes in place of are becoming distressingly frequent. corn to maximize the number of calo- Both are politically destabilizing, exert- ries, rather than the amount of protein, ing a heavy claim on the time of political that their fields produce. In effect, they leaders. switch from an agricultural system based Perhapsthe most visiblepolitical on marketable crops to one aimed at stress are the riots and demonstrations meeting bare subsistence needs. that break out in response to food shortages and price increases. (See Table 2-8.) In extreme cases, the overthrow of a government can be the result, a se- quence that was dramatically illustrated POLITICAL FALLOUT in Sudan in the spring of 1985. With its land productivity declining In addition to the economic and social for close to two decades, and its food effects of ecological deterioration, gov- deficit and external debt rising as a re- ernments must contend with the politi- sult, Sudan's foreign debt reached $9 cal fallout as well. Among the more wor- billion in 1985. One of the austerity Table 2.8. Food-Related Riots and Demonstrations, 1981-85

Country Date Triggering Event Bolivia July 1983 Drought-induced food shortages

Brazil Summer 1983 rood shortages in northeast

Dominican Republic Spring 1984 Food price increases January 1985 Sharply increased prices for basic foodstuffs

Egypt May 1984 Increased bread prices

Haiti May, June 1984 Food shortages

Jamaica January 1985 Food price increases

Morocco January 1984 Cuts in zoverammt f'od subsidies

Philippines January 1q84 5G percent increase in food prices

Sierra Leone Spring 1981 Scarcity or rice and increased retail food prices

Sudan March 1985 Food price increases

Tunisia December 1983 Sharply increased pries for wheat and wheat products

SOURCES.U.S. Department of Agncultur,.,Outlook and Situation Reports,Washinvm D.0 , various news articles.

50 (36) State of the World -1986 measures imposed on it by the interna- scended on stores and supermarkets in tional financial community in exchange the towns of the ecologically devastated for new loans was the abandonment of northeast. The food shortages were a re- the food subsidies that favor city dwell- sult of prolonged drought, land degra- ers. The resulting food price increases in dation, and the associated lack of water- the spring of 1985 led to riots and absorptive capacity that contributed to demonstrationsinKhartoum. While the severity of the crop shortfalls." President Nimeiry was in Washington Ecological degradation is also causing seeking 'clitional financial assistance, a swelling tide of refugees fleeing fam- this civil unrest paved the way for a mili- ine, disaster, and poverty. For centuries, tary takeover of the governments' political refugees have migrated to other countries, and in recent decades, people in search of jobs have crossed interna- If the massive flow of refugees tional borders in large numbers. Now, across the border with Senegal con- ecological deterioration in Africa isgen- erating millions of migrants, who are tinues, in a matter of years more leaving their villages in record numbers Mauritanians will live in Senegal in search of food and water. African than in Mauritania. farmers and herders are converging on cities and emergency relief camps. In February 1985, the United Nations Nearly all the countries in Table 2-8 estimated that more than 10 million are essentially agrarian economies. And Africans had left their homes in search of nearly all have experienced extensive food, frequently crossing national bor- ecological deteriorationdeforestation, ders in their desperate quest. Hundreds soil erosion, land degradation, range- of thousands of Ethiopians have crossed land deterioration, and increases in rain- into Sudan, heading for relief camps. fall runoff. In half the countries, grain (See Table 2-9.) Mozambicans have production per person is lower today moved into Zimbabwe in droves to es- than it was at mid-century. cape the guerilla warfare, ecological Food subsides are a common govern- deterioration, and social disintegration of their homeland.34 mental response to growing food deficits and rising food prices. They often Mauritanian nomads have moved into Senegal and The Gambia, attempting to merely postpone the day of reckoning, escape the Sahara as it pushes south- however, because eventually the size of ward. In the Mauritanian capital of the subsidy becomes unmanageable. Nouakchott, residents must spend the The government of Tunisia, faced with a early hours of each day shoveling the growing trade and budget deficit,an- sand away from doors and off streets and nounced in December of 1983 that it sidewalks so that they remain passable. If would reduce the government supports the massive flow of refugees across the on wheat and wheat products. The re- border with Senegal continues, in a mat- sulting 85 percent price increase precipi- ter of years more Mauritanians will live tated a week of rioting, which ended only in Senegal than in Mauritania." when President Bourguiba restored the Sudan, now host to 1.1 million re- sub sidies.32 fugees from neighboring countries, has Brazil has been plagued with more become one huge relief camp. As of mid- food riots than any other country. In the 1985, the country had absorbed 775,000 summer of 1983, hungry people de- Ethiopians,250,000 Ugandans, and 51 Yar-

Assessing Ecological Decline (37) Table 2-9. Distribution of Refugees in Africa by Country of Refuge, 1984

Country of Number of Primary Countries Refuge Refugees of Origin Sudan 1,100,000 Ethiopia/Uganda/Chad Somalia 700,000 Ethiopia Zaire 304.G00 Angola/Uganda Tanzania 180,000 Burundi/Zaire Algeria 167,000 Western Sahara

Uganda 132,000 Rwanda/Zaire Zambia 104,000 Angola/Zaire Angola 96,000 Namibia/Zaire Rwanda 49,000 Burundi/Uganda Zimbabwe 44,000 Mozambique

Ethiopia 40,000 Sudan Djibouti 23,000 Ethiopia Kr nya 8,000 Uganda/Ethiopia C-ntral African Rep. 7,000 Chad Egyp; 5,000 Ethiopia SOURCES: U S. Committee for Refugees, World Refugee Survey 1984 (New York: American Council for Nationalities Service, 1984); U.N. Office of Emergency Operations in Afnca, Almon Emergency Bulks'', July 15, 1985. 120,000 Chadians. In addition to wres- national borders, the process is politi- tling with its own massive food short- cally stressful and economically disrup- falls, the Sudanese government must tive. People are losing their livestock and confront such logistical questions .-za how being separated from the land, their to truck enough water to refugee camps means of livelihood. Cultivators and where wells have gone dry. Declining nomads are descending In cities and re- rainfall and the closely associated deteri- lief camps, unable to si' stain themselves. oration of locallife-support systems Even when drought eases, agricultural were the principal forces driving people recovery is slow. People are far removed into Sudan, although civil strife in the from their land, have lost their draft ani- originatingcountriesalsoplayeda mals, and have eaten the seed normally role.36 saved for replanting. In Chad, a combination of drought As these experiences in many coun- and civil war have displaced an estimated tries indicate, the relationship between 2.2 million of a total population of 4.8 ecological deterioration and political million, the great majority of them still stresses is real. Walter Truett Anderson, within the country. This extensive dislo- a political scientist specializing in bio- cation of a national population-46 per- logical issues, has focused on this partic- centmay be a record. Such massive ular relationship in Central America: "At displacement means that economic de- this point, with tree cutting proceeding velopment has been replaced by eco- far more rapidly than tree planting, Cen- nomic decline, as food output falls.37 tral America is moving rapidly toward an Whether people are migrating to an- ecological deterioration that will make it other part of their own country or across difficult to establish any stable social

52 -1

(38) State of the World-1986 order."38 His point applies to all of the commissions are staffed largely, if not Third World countries that are undergo- entirely, by economistsat a time when ing rapid ecological deterioration. long-term economic planning is impossible without a command of basic ecology. This weakness isevident in most global economic policymaking models. THE NEED FOR INTEGRATED These are essentially macroeconomic, assuming unlimited ecological capaci- ANALYSIS ties, and they thus produce unrealistic With only occasional exceptions, policy economic forecasts. For example, agri- analysts and decision makers have failed cultural supply and denand projections to adopt an integrated and multidisci- invariably include projections of crop- plinary approach for analyzing the rela- land area, but ignore entirely the effect tionship between ourselves and our en- of soil loss on land productivity. Nor do vironmental support systems. Although these models incorporate key relation- specialization is essential to the system- ships between the hydrological cycle and atic advancement of knowledge, there is the loss of vegetation so widespread in also a need for generalists who can inte- the Third World. One of the central issues in develop- grate across fields of knowledge, particu- ment planning is how to respond to the larlyacrossthesocial and natural effect of population growth and as- sciences. sociated changes in land use on the hy- This specialization of knowledge and drological cycle. Given the obvious im- mission without a counterbalancing, in- portance of thisissue, an extensive tegrating mechanism is proving to be so- collaborative exploration of these rela- cially costly. In key policy areas, such as tionships by demographers, hydrolo- population, agriculture, and economics, gists, and meteorologists should be a policies and priorities often rest on such priority. So far, few meteorologists are a narrow information base that they looking at how land use changes affect prove counterproductive. This is per- climate, and they are not translating haps truest of national security, where their findings into policy recommenda- the policymaking process is even more tions. isolated from other fields. For Africa, the question central to any Perhaps the greatest single need for assessment of the continent's future is intellectual integration is between eco- whether changes in land use and the loss nomics and ecology. Throughout much of vegetation and soil associated with of the period of rapid global economic population growth are reducing rainfall. expansion since World War II, econo- Are the 18 consecutive years of below- mists have been able to ignore ecological normal rainfall in Africa since 1967 just conceptssuchascarryingcapacity, another of many historical climatic oscil- largely because the human demands on lations? Or do they presage a long-term biological systems were well below their gradual decline that will. Nicely continue sustainable yields. With the quadrupling as long as populations expand and land of world economic activity since mid- usechanges? AccordingtoFrench century, however, human demands are meteorologist Robert Kandel, "Plant beginning to exceed sustainable yield cover in general and forests :n particular thresholds in country after country. Un- may have virtues going beyond the mi- fortunately, most Third World planning croclimate and extending to the regional

53 Assessing Ecological Decline (39) scale circulation."39 In a review of deser- Unfortunately, many policymakers, in- tification in West Africa, World Bank cluding Third World political leaders, forester Jean Gorse writes: "Thecurrent assume that these are "real world" pro- I7-year dry period is most worrying. jections that may materialize. With population growing faster elan ever before, the proposition that thr.re is now a trend towards increasing -Aridity deserves a special research effort."'" Mot.' Third World planningcom- Unless at least an informed assump- missions are staffed by economists tion can be made about the relationship at a time when long-term eco- between ecosystem change and the hydrological cycle, devisingan, intelligent nomic plauniag is impossible with- development strategy for Africa is im- out a command of basic ecology. possible. For example, in reforestation planning, there may be a vast difference between thescale of tree planting Closely related to this analytical chal- needed merely to satisfy future firewood lenge is that of assessing the effect of demands and that which would bere- reinforcing trends. At what point does quired to restore the hydrological cycle ecological deterioration begin tocon- of a generation ago. The latter could tribute to political disintegration? And easily require 10 times as many plantings at what point does political disintegra- as the former. Likewise with agricultural tion undermine efforts to manageeco- research: Without some understanding logical systems intelligently? Lebanon's of whether Africa's rainfall decline is per capita food production, for example, temporary,itis impossible to know declined 87 percent since 1950. Most of whether to concentrate research efforts the reduction has come in recentyears, on a widely grown crop, such as maize, a time marked by social fragmentation or on traditional staples that are better and a breakdown of political structures. adapted to low rainfall conditions, such Clearly, political disintegration is affect- as sorghum. ing the agricultural prospect. Butto Populationprojectionsalsosuffer what extent did ecological deterioration from a narrow base of information that and agricultural decline contribute to is almost exclusively demographic. Pop- the social stresses that led to political ulation projections by U.N.or World disintegration? Bank demographers arz essentially ab- Separating the effects of ecological stractions. There are no feedback loops deterioration from economic neglect in their models to incorporate the effect and polil iral ;nstability or social unrest is of population growth on the localre- analytically difficult. But without an inte- source base. The effects of defore&ta- grated information and analytical base, non, soil erosion, cropland abandon- formulating policies responsive to the ment, and freshwaterscarcitiesare circumstances of an earth with 5 billion entirely omitted from these projections. human inhabitants may not be possible.

54 3

Increasing Water Efficiency

Sandra Postel

Despite modern technology and feats of desired. Governments often built and engineering, a secure water future for financed large water projects to encour- much of the world remains elusive. age agricultural and economic expan- Farmers in several key food-producing sion. In the United States, for example, regions face limited and, in some cases, the 1902 Reclamation Act aimed to set- dwindling water supplies, threatening tle the western frontier by offering fam- future food production. In recent years, ily farmers cheap water and power. The millions of residents have had their act established a separate agency, the household water rationed because of BureauofReclamation,explicitly supply shortfalls in such climatically di- charged with developing the West's riv- verse cities as Newark, New Jersey; Cor- ers for irrigation and later for hydro- pus Christi, Texas; Managua, Nicaragua; power. Since 1902, hundreds of dams and Tianjin, China.' Water planners in have been erected, and the Bureau has built or authorized more than 160 irriga- many corners of the worldin humid tion projects. Collectively, these facili- climates as well as dry, in affluent soci- ties supply water to about one quarter of eties as well as poor onesare project- the West's irrigated land.`t ing that within two decades water sup- Viewed as a key to economic growth plies will fall short of needs. and prosperity, water development in Historically, water management has much of the world has expanded virtu- focused on water developmentbuild- ally unchecked. Where people drilled ing dams, reservoirs, and diversion ca- their own wells, pumping was regulated nalsand has aimed at supplying water minimally, if at all. Cities and farms wherever and inwhatever amounts sprawled across virtualdeserts, and An expanded version of this chapter appeared as water was brought to them. Soaring de- Worldwatch Paper 67,Conserving Water The Un-mands were met by ever larger dam and tapped Alternatsve. diversion projects, and planners often

55 Increasing Water Efficiency (V) projected future water needs without water supply projects. But their poten- considering whether available supplies tial is severely undermined by pricing could sustainably meet them. Rarely did policies and water laws thatencourage the notion of adapting to a limitedsup- inefficiency and waste. Removing these ply enter into planning scenarios. institutional barriers is crucial in order Today's water institutionsthe poli- to expand the many new water-conserv- des and laws, government agencies, and ing methods now in limiteduse. Only by planning and engineering practices that managing water demand, rather,aan shapepatternsof water useare ceaselessly striving to meet it, is there steeped in a supply-side management hope for a truly secure and sustainable philosophy that is no longer appropri- water future. ate. Aquifer depletion, falling water tables, and streamflows diminishedto ecologically damaging levels are increasingly widespread. Though theconven- tional approach of continuously expanding supplies may work when water is WATER-SAVING IRRIGATION abundant, it is not well suited foran era METHODS of growing scarcity, rising water development costs, and damage to the envi- Since 1950, irrigated area worldwide has ronments nearly tripled, now totaling about 270 Most Third World countries havenot million hectares. Along with fertilizer developed their water sources as exten- and high-yielding send varieties, irriga- sively as industrial countries have, and tion helped spur the Green Revolution they face some special challenges ina that spread during the sixties andseven- time of scarce and costly water. Third ties. In the drive to expand irrigation, World economies are still largelyagrar- however, comparatively little attention ian,and irrigated agriculture claims has been paid to the efficiency with 85-90 percent of their developedwater which irrigation systems operate. Much sources. Supplying an expanding urban water is lost as it is conveyed from reser- and industrial base while meeting the voirs to farmlands, distributed among food needs of growing populations will farmers, and applied to fields. World- require much additional water. But these wide, the efficiency of irrigationsystems nations now confront far greater capital is estimated to average only 37percent. and energy constraints to water develop- Some of this "lost" water returns toa ment than did those undergoing indus- stream or aquifer where it can be tapped trialization earlier this century. Fewcan again, provided the necessary infrastruc- afford todouble water withdrawals ture is available. But much is rendered within two decades, as, for example, the unproductive or becomes severely de- United States did between 1950 and graded in quality as it picks up salts,pes- 1970.4 ticides, and toxic elements from the By increasing water productivitythe land.5 benefit gained from each liter used Besides accounting for about 70per- food production, industrial output, and cent of water withdrawals worldwide, ag- cities can expand without a parallel in- riculture consumes the largest share of crease in water demands. Investments in most nations' water budgets. Whereas water efficiency, recycling, and conserva- 90 percent or more of the water supplied tion can increasingly yield more usable to industries and homes is available for water per dollar than can conventional reuse, return flows from agriculture are 56 4.1 uNe

(42) State of the World-1986 often only half the initial withdrawal. the land so that water gets distributed The rest is consumed through evapora- more evenly. To sufficiently water crops tion and transpiration, which depletes sitting just 3 centimeters higher than the the local water supply. Though water surrounding surface, farmers may have can be saved only by reducing consump- to apply as much as 40 percent more tion,reducing withdrawalswhether water to the entire field. Precise leveling they are consumed or notcan make a can thus greatly reduce water needs, be- given reservoir or aquifer supply last sides alleviating waterlogging, curbing longer or serve a larger area. (Through- erosion, and raising crop yields. It can be out this chapter, the terms water with- done withtraditional equipmenta drawal, use, and demand are used inter- tractor or draft animals pulling a soil changeably; water consumr will be scraper and land planebut most farm- distinguished.) Rai ,ing irrigationeffi- ers will require training and assistance in ciency by 10 percent in the Indus region carrying out the initial field surveys and of Pakistan, for example, could provide leveling operations. in recent years, enough water to irrigate an additional 2 farmers in the United States and else- r- Ilion hectares.6 where have begun to use lasers to guide Most farmers still irrigate the way their the leveling process, which can raise the predecessors did 5,000 years agoby efficiency of surface systems to as high as fl000mg or channeling water through 90 percent.8 parallel furrows. Water flows by gravity Over the last two decades, much new across a gently sloping field, seeping land has been brought under irrigation into the soil along the way. These gravity with a variety of high-pressure sprinkler systems (also called surface systems) are designs. Sprinklers tend to irrigate more typically the least expensive to install uniformly than gravity systems, and effi- and by far the most common method in ciencies typically average about 70 per- use today. Unfortunately, most fail to cent. But much water can be lost to evap- distribute water evenly. Farmers must oration, especially in windy, dry areas. A often apply an excessive amount of new method, known as LEPAfor low- water to ensure that enough reaches energyprecisionapplicationoffers plants situated on higher ground or on substantial improvements over conven- the far side of the field. Some areas re- tional designs. Rather than spraying ceive more water than the crops can use, water high intotheair,the LEPA and the excess percolates out of the root method delivers water closer to the zone or simply runs off the field.? crops by means of drop tubes extending vertically from the sprinkler arm. When used in conjunction with water-conserv- Most farmers still irrigate the way ing land preparation methods, LEPA irrigation can achieve efficiencies as high their predecessors did 5,000 years as 98 percent. Since the system operates ago. at low pressure, energy requirements may drop by 20-30 percent. A key advantage is LEPA's suitability for retrofit- Because of these problems, many ting existing sprinklers. For many farm- gravity systems are less than 50 percent ers, a LEPA retrofit would pay for itself efficient: Only half the water applied to in reduced pumping costs in 5-7 years, the field actually benefits the crops. Yet For fruits, vegetables, and orchard a number of practices can greatly im- crops, a group of thrifty irrigation tech- prove their performance. Probably the niques collectively known as microirriga- most universally applicable is leveling tion has rapidly expanded over the last 57 Increasing Water Efficiency (43 ) decade.The most common micro Table 3-1. Use of Microirrigation method is drip (also known as trickle) Worldwide and in Selected Countries, irrigation, in which a network ofporous 1974 and 1981-821 or perforated piping, installed on or below the soil surface, delivers water di- Country 1974 1981-822 rectly to the crops' roots. This keeps (hectares) evaporation and seepage lossesex- tremely low. To provide sufficient water United States 29,060 185,300 to a crop, drip systems may apply 20-25 Israel 6,070 81,700 percent less water to a field than conven- South Africa 3,480 44,000 tional sprinklers would and 40-60per- France 22,000 cem less than simple gravity systems.10 Australia 10,120 20,050 Ahhough the principles behind drip irrigation date back more than a century, Soviet Union 11,200 the emei gcnce of inexpensive plastic fol- Irly 10,300 lowing World War II spurred the tech- China 8,040 nology's commercial development. By Cyprus 160 6,600 the mid-seventies, a half-dozen coun- Mexico 6,470 5,500 tries---Australia,Israel,Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa, and the United All Other 1,010 21,970 Stateswere irrigating substantial areas by drip methods, and drip area world- Total 56,370 416,660 wide totaled about 56,000 hectares. 'Includes primarily surface and subsurface drip Since then its use has steadily spread. methods and microsprinklers.2See text for se- (See Table 3-1.) Israel now waters 73,- lected more recent estimates. SOURCES: 1974 estimates from Don Gustafson, 200 hectares by drip methods, up from "Drip Irrigation in the WorldState of the Art," 6,000 just a decade ago. Together, drip in Inagua '78: Proceedings of Me International Confer- systems and microsprinklers water more ence on Water Systems and Apphcatunu (Tel Aviv: Is- than 109,000 hectares, nearly half that rael Centre of Waterworks Appliances, 1978); nation's total irrigated area." 1981-82 estimates adapted from J.S. Abbott, "Micro IrrigationWorld Wide Usage," Bulletin of In the United States, drip systems still the International Commission on Imganon and Drainage, water a negligible share of total irrigated January 1984. area. But their use greatly expanded over the last decadefrom 29,000 hect- research priority. One method, forex- ares in 1974 to more than 226,000 hect- ample, known as "pitcher irrigation," in- ares in 1983. California accounts for corporates properties somewhat akin to nearly half the U.S. total, and Florida for drip systems. Vegetable or fruit seeds about a fifth. Today, microirrigationsys- are planted around a baked earthen tems water more than 475,000 hectares pitcher buried in the soil. Farmers fill the worldwide, less than 1 percent of total pitcher with water, which then gradually irrigated area, yet an impressive eight- seeps through the porous walls into the fold increase since the mid-seventies." root zone. As with drip systems, evapo- Though new technologies can do ration and water losses remainvery low. much to reduce water withdrawals for Locally manufactured in many develop- agriculture, many are too costly and ing countries, the pitchers offeran inex- complex to benefit farmers in the Third pensiveandefficientwater-delivery World. Incorporating the principles be- method. Experiments in India in the hind these modern techniques into tech- early seventies showed pitcher irrigation nologies affordable and appropriate for to work well with pumpkins and melons; developing countries should be a high more recently, a local association of 58 "1"

(44) State of the World-1986 farmers in the Brazilian state of Piaui gation project in Sri Lanka, for example, began using the technique." found that farmers located near the tail With investment needs for new large- end of the systemwho therefore had scale irrigation projects in the Third last access to water in the irrigation canal World averaging about $5,000 per hect- had average incomes one fifth lower are, most experts agree that near-term than those near the head, where the sup- efforts should focus on increasing the ply was plentiful. Despite ample applica- efficiency of systems already in place. tion of fertilizer, rice yields from most Better management alone could reduce farmers' fields were far below their po- water withdrawals for most surface canal tential." systems by at least 10-15 percent, allow- Only if farmers are assured of an ade- ing new land to be brought under irriga- quate and reliable supply of water will tion for much less than it would cost to they invest in other inputs that can boost develop new supplies. The World Bank productivity, such as fertilizer and high- estimates, for example, that reducing the yielding seeds. Many large canal systems water loss from systems supp4,ng 13 now deliver water according to a rigid million hectares in Pakistan from 50 per- schedule that gives farmers little control cent down to 30 percent would recap- over their supply. Robert Chambers of ture for productive use as much water as the University of Sussex cites farmers in three Tarbela Dams could storethe Gujarat, India, who were willing to pay equivalent of a $9-billion investment." seven to nine times more for pumped groundwater than for canal water because the former was more reliable." More than 80 percent of the world's Whatever the type of system used flood or furrow, sprinklers, or drip cropland is still watered only by methodsfarmers everywhere can con- rainfall. serve water by schcduling irrigations to more closely coincide with their crops' water needs. This requires periodically What constitutes"better manage- monitoring soil moisture and irrigating ment" varies from project to project. just before crops would become stressed Typical problems includethelarge by lack of water. Farmers with limited water losses resulting from canal seep- financial resources may do fairly well by age as water is conveyed from reservoirs extracting a soil sample from the appro- to fields, poor mechanisms for distribut- priate depth and estimating moisture ing water among farmers served by a content by its consistency. If data on particular project, and the farmers' ina- evapotranspiration and rainfall are avail- biLty to control the timing and amount able, growers can keep a water budget, of water applied to fields. Consequently, irrigating when their calculations show often less land is irrigated than was origi- that their crops will soon need more nally planned in a project design, con- water. Of the many devices available to tributing to the low rate of return from measure soil moisture, gypsum blocks manyirrigationinvestments.Some are probably the least costly and sim- farmers get too much water, while others plest to use. When buried in the root get too little, and few apply water to their zone, the blocks acquire a moisture con- crops in optimal amounts. tent roughly equal to that of the sur- These shortcomings diminish not only rounding soil. They connect to a meter the productivity of the water supply, but thatmeasureselectricalresistance, food pi oduction and farmers'liveli- which tells the farmer how moist the soil hoods. An analysis of the Rajangana irri- is. On test plots of alfalfa and corn, irri- 59 ,

Increasing Water Efficiency (45) gation scheduling using gypsum blocks were irrigated when moisture in the root led to water applications respectively 14 zone had been depleted by about half. and 27 percent below neighboringcon- For a total annual cost of only $25-30 trol plots.17 per hectare, the irrigation improvements Especially where irrigation systems led to some dramatic results. (See Table are extremely inefficient, as in much of 3-2.) Half the controlled irrigations the Third World today, substantial water achieved efficiencies of 60 percentor productivity gains can be made fora higher, whereas only 15 percent did in small price. A case in point is the Claro the uncontrolled fields. Yields of alfalfa River valley in Chile, where the Chilean doubled compared with those in the Ministry of Civil Works, aided by techni- unimproved plots, potato yieldswere cal experts from West Germany and the two thirds higher, and bailey yields, 43 Catholic University of Chile, launcheda percent higher. Water productivity study to determine the benefits ofsome measured as crop yield per unit of water simple and inexpensive irrigation im- applied to the fieldwas boosted 30- provements. Investigations showed that 136 percent. irrigation efficiencies were averaging only about 20 percent, drainagewas poor, and nutrients were being leached out of the root zoneall contributing to low crop yields.18 NEW CROPPING PATTERNS On selected plots, the research group modified traditional furrow and flood ir- Though the spread of irrigation has fos- rigation methods to get a moreeven dis- tered a tremendous surge in croppro- tribution of water throughout the field. duction over the last generation, more Soil moisture was monitored, and crops than 80 percent of the world's cropland is still watered only by rainfall. These Table 3-2. Chile: Water Productivity lands produce two thirds of the global Gains in the Claro River Valley harvest and provide the subsistence diets for many growing Third World Crop Yield Per populations. Some of this land can and Cubic Meter of willin time, be brought under irriga- Water tion. But given the high cost ofnew irri- Without With gation projectsoften $10,000-15,000 Improve-Improve- per hectare in much of Africaexpand- Crop ments ments' Change ing irrigation may in manycases not be a feasible near-term solution to raising (kilograms) (percent) food production. Effective waterman- Alfalfa 0.28 0.66 +136 agement is as crucial to increasing crop Barley 0.30 0.58 + 93 yields in nonirrigated agricultureas it is Beans 0.10 0.13 + 30 in irrigated areas. Yet with irrigationoc- Potatoes 0.25 0.55 +120 cupying center stage in recent decades, 'Annual cost for improvements did not exceed the potential to improve water produc- $30 per hectare. tivity on rain-fed farmland has been SOURCE: Gaston Mahave and Jorge Dominguez, largely neglected.l9 "Expe.iments at Farm Level to Introduce Tech- Rain-fed farming (often called dryland nology in Irrigation: Its Influence on Production and Water Resources," in Brazilian National Com- farming in and and semiarid regions) is mittee,Transactions of the hi Regional Pan-Anirnean inherently a risky enterprise. RegarcUess Conference, V oi,I, Salvador (Bahia), Brazil, Octo- of what historical rainfall recordsmay ber 1984. show, dryland farmers have noguaran-

6O (46 ) State of the World-1986 tee that rain will sufficiently water their erosion, is among the most effective wa- crops throughout the growing season. In ter-conservation measures. This prac- a dry year, the quality of water manage- tice, also known as minimum tillage, in- ment in dryland production can mean volves leaving crop residues and stubble the difference between a field of with- on the field after harvest, which then ered crops and a successful harvest. Cap- trap rainwater, slow runoff, and reduce turing and retaining rainwater on the evaporation from the soil, thereby in- land, reducing the amount lost to evapo- creasingsoil moisture storage. One ration, and selecting crops suited to re- study in the southern U.S. High Plains gional rainfall patterns are the keys to found that both soil water storage and enhancing productivity. According to sorghum yields increased in proportion U.S. Department of Agriculturere- to the amount of residue left during an searchers B.A. Stewart and Earl Burnett, 11-month fallow. (See Table 3-3.) With these components of sustainable dry- eight tons of residue per hectare, 44 per- land farming have been known for cen- cent of the precipitation falling during turies, but "progress in adapting them to the fallow period was retained in the soil, specific areas and situations has been compared with only 23 percent on slow."20 cleared fields. Sorghum yields on fields Wherever water is the only factor lim- with the eight tons of residue were dou- iting crop production, a crop's yield var- ble those on the cleared fieldsa tre- ies directly with the amount of water mendous gain as a result of conserving available for evapotranspiration. A sor- natural rainfall. ghum plant, for example, might yield an As many as 4,000 years ago, farmers additional 15 kilograms of dry matter for practiced "runoff agriculture," in which each additional millimeter of water its rainwater is captured and channeled to roots absorb. By increasing the amount fields to provide enough water for crops of moisture stored in the root zone, to grow in an otherwise hostile environ- farmers can thus increase their crop ment. These methods allowed some an- yields." cient farming cultures to thrive where Making effective use of the fallow pe- annual rainfall averaged only 100 milli- riodthe time between one crop's har- meters (4 inches), and they became vest and the next one's plantingcan widely used throughout the Midd!e East, substantially increase soil moisture stor- North Africa, China, India, northwest age. While fields lic idle, rainwater ac- Mexico, and the American Southwest. If cumulates in the root zone, helping fill combined with today's knowledge of the gap between the next crop's water crop water needs and local rainfall pat- requirements and the amount of rain terns, modern variants of runoff agricul- that falls during its growing season. Re- ture could increase dryland production searchers have found that yields under in semiarid regions and greatly lessen well-planned crop-fallow rotations can the risk of crop failure." increase dramatically compared with One promisir, , method for small-scale those under continuous cropping, which subsistancecrop productionismi- in some cases may more than compen- crocatchmentfarming.Theterrain sate for the smaller number of harvests. around each cultivated plant is shaped Yields of wheat, for example, have dou- so that rainfall from a larger area gets bled or tripled after a year of fallow com- directed to a small basin in which the pared with continuous cropping.22 plant grows. Water retained in the basin Conservationtillage,whichhelps seeps through the soil, and the crop gets farmers cut energy costs and curb soil greater supply than it would from rain- Increasing Water Efficiency Table 3-3. Effects of Conservation Tillageon Water Storage and Sorghum Yields in the Southern U.S. High Plains Amount of Residue Share of Fallow-Period Left Per Hectare Precipitation Stored Sorghum Yield on the Field in the Soil Per Hectare (tons) (percent) (kilograms) 0 23 1,780 1 31 2,410 2 31 2,600 4 36 2,980 8 44 3,680 12 46 8,990 SOURCE: B.A. Stewart and Earl Burnett, "Water Conservation Technology in Rainfed and DrylandAgricul- ture," paper presented at the International Conferenceon Food and Water, College Station, Tex., May 26-30, 1985, based on data in P.W. Unger, "Straw-Mulch Rate Effecton Soil Water Storage and Sorghum Yield," Soil Science Society of America Journal, Vol. 42, 1978. fall alone. Experiments in Israel's Negev moisture. They can also switch to crops Desert indicate construction costs of and farming techniques better suited to only $10-40 per hectare, dependingon their particular growing conditions. the catchment size needed to supply the In regions prone to drought, or where crop sufficiently. Despite their applica- water supplies are otherwise unreliable, bilitytolabor-intensive,subsistence crops less sensitive to water stress can cropping systems, which characterize help guard against devastating yield re- much of Third World agriculture, mi- ductions. Among the common grains, crocatchments are only in limited use. corn and rice are highly sensitive to Since they work especially well with tree want- deficits, whereas sorghum and crops, microcatchments could bolster wheat, for example, are comparatively reforestation efforts that combine pro- tolerant. Although both corn and sor- duction of food, fodder, and fuelwood ghum are likely to suffer yield reductions an urgent need, for example, in sub- during a prolonged drought, corn yields Saharan Africa.24 would drop by a greater percentage, As water becomes an increasing con- other things being equal.25 Research di- straint on food production, more atten- rected at boosting the yields of drought- tion must be given to exploiting crop resistant crops co,.1d tt'us greatly benefit characteristics and selecting cropping areas where irrigation is limited or una- systems that make optimum use of the vailable, including much of Africa. water available. Crops vary, among A graph of any crop's seasonal water other things,intheirresistanceto consumption typically has a bell shape, drought, their tolerance of salinity, the starting out low when plants are young, total amount of water they consume reaching a peak at some point in the from planting to harvest, and the length growing season, and tapering off as har- of their growing season. In dryland pro- vest approaches. In general, crops are duction, for example, farmers can help more sensitive to water deficiencies dur- secure a good harvest by setting the ing their flowering or reproductive sta -..e planting date of a crop so that its grow- than during their vegetative or ripening ing season corresponds with the maxi- stages. For example, if corn's water mum probability of it getting sufficient needs are not met during its silking and

62 (48) State of the World-1986 tasseling period, yields can drop by half. Chickens, for example, can tolerate feed Though sorghum, cotton, and soybeans with a halophyte content of 10-20 per- are more drought-tolerant, their yields cent. Of course, before any halophyte can fall by a third or more if stressed by crop is grown on a commercial scale, it lack of water at critical growth stages.26 must prove to be economical to seed, Where lack of developed supplies cultivate, harvest, and se11.28 makes full irrigation impossible, the lim- Over the long term, water constraints ited water available could be used to irri- could prompt the spread of new crop gate crops during their most sensitive varieties. One that has attracted some periods. Especially in the Third World, recent attention is amaranth, a broad- where minimizing the water stress of leaved plant that produces an edible ce- crops can help avert famine, training real-likegrain.NativetoMexico, farmers to apply water at the most criti- Guatemala, the southwestern United cal times for their particular cropsand States, and the Andean highlands of making supplies available during those South America, amaranth is a hearty, timescould greatly enhance food secu- drought-resistantcropthatappears rity. readily adaptable to new environments. Another exploitable crop characteris- About 20 farmers are growing it in the tic of growing importance is salt toler- United States, and some with several ance.Barley,cotton, sorghum, soy- years' experience see a potentially large beans, sugar beets, and wheat are among role for the crop in the High Plains. Ac- the common crops r least moderately cording to one Kansas grower, amaranth tolerant of salinity.his trait is espe- weathered the recent dry years better cially useful for desert regions, such as than sorghum. However, given its com- the Middle East, where a large share of paratively low yields and some technical the extractable groundwater supply is problems that make planting costly, quite salty. To conserve high-quality amaranth will not supplant substantial water for drinking, the Saudi Arabians acreages of the common cereals without frequently use water with a salt concen- much additional research and develop- tration exceeding 2,000 parts per mil- ment.28 lion (ppm) to grow barley, sugar beets, cotton, spinach, asparagus, and date palms.27 (For comparison, ocean water has a salinity of about 35,000 ppm, water with a salinity of 1,000 ppm or less is RECYCLING AND REUSE considered fresh, and the recommended limit for drinking water in the United Water supplies for cities and industries States is 500 ppm.) are typically taken from a river, lake, or Some scientists see a promising future aquifer, used in a factory or home, and for the commercial production of halo- then released as "wastewater" to the phytesplants physiologically adapted nearest watercourse. Treating this waste- to a salty environment. Researchers at water before it is discharged to the en- the University of Arizona's Environmen- vironment not only protects the quality tal Research Laboratory in Tucson have of rivers, streams, and aquifers, it sets collected several thousand halophyte the stage for water recycling and reuse. specimens representing some 800 spe- By using water several times, cities and cies. Of the small portion screened so industries can get more production out far, a number appear promising as proof each liter, thereby lessening the need viders of livestock feed or plant oil. to develop new supplies. Water pure 63 Increasing Water Efficiency (49) Table 3-4. United States: Water Recycling Rates in Major ManufacturingIndustries, 1954-78, With Projections for 1985 and 2000

Paper and Chemicals Petroleum Primary All Allied and Allied and Coal Metal Manufac- Year Products Products Products Industries turing (number of times each cubic meter used) 1954 2.4 1.6 3.3 1.3 1.8 1959 3.1 1.6 4.4 1.5 2.2 1964 2.7 2.0 4.4 1.5 2.1 1968 2.9 2.1 5.1 1.6 2.3 1973 3.4 2.7 6.4 1.8 2.9 1978 5.3 2.9 7.0 1.9 3.4

1985 6.6 13.2 18.3 6.0 8.6 2000 11.8 28.0 32.7 12.3 17.1 sovRcEs: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Water Use in Manufacturing (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Governm.tnt Printing Office, 1981); projections from Culp/Wesner/Culp,Water Reuse and Recychng Evaluatton of Needs and Potenisal, Vol. 1 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Interior,1979). enough to drink serves many functions times, chemical product manufacturers that do not rec lire such high quality. 2.9 times, and primary metal industries Much wastewarcan therefore be used -dominated by steelmaking-1.9 times. again within a ,iven factory, home, or Despite impressive progress, water re- business (usually called recycling) or col- cycling's potential in manufacturing has lected from one or more sites, treated, barely been tapped. Many industrial pol- and redistributed to a new site (called lution control processes recycle water by reuse). design. Also, because wastewaters must In the United States, manufacturing be treated to a high quality to meet envi- industries took in some 49 billion cubic ronmental regulations, recycling par- meters of water in 1978, the last year for tiallytreatedwater withinaplant which a comprehensive survey is avail- becomes more economical than paying able. On average, each cubic meter was the high costs of treating discharges to used 3.4 times before being discharged, the levels required. As pollution control eliminating the need to withdraw 120 standards get more stringent, recycling billion cubic meters from the nation's rates thus tend to increase. water sources. More than 80 percent of water use in U.S. manufacturing occurs in just four industries-paper, chemicals, petroleum and coal, and primary By using water several times, cities metals-and each has fairly steadily in- and industries can get more pro- creased its water recycling rate over the duction out of each liter. last few decades. (See Table 3-4.) Each cubic meter supplied to paper mills, for examplt, is now used an average of 7.2 The projected 1985 rates in Table 3-4 times, and for the paper industry as a are probably overestimates, since com- whole, the average recycling rate has pliance with pollution control require- climbed from 2.4 in 1954 to 5.3 in 1978. ments has lagged. But by the year 2000, Petroleum refineries use water about 7 the recycling rates in both the primary (50) State of the World-1986 metals and paper industries are ex- ering valuable materials, such as nickel pected to rise to about 12, in chemicals and chrome from plating operations, sil- to 28, and in petroleum to more than 30, ver from photographic processing, and with an average for all manufacturing in- fiber from papermaking. As water and dustries of 17.If theselevelsare wastewater treatment costs rise, recy- reached, total water withdrawals for cling thus begins to pay. One California manufacturing in the year 2000taking paper mill, for example, when required into account expected economic growth by state authorities to curb its release of will be 45 percent lower than they pollutants into the Pacific Ocean, found were in 1978.30 that internally treating and recycling its wastewater was the least expensive way to meet the state's requirements. Water In the Valley of Mexico, 4 out of use was cut by 15 percent, and, by annu- every 10 liters pumped from local ally reclaiming $548,000 worth of fiber aquifers are not replaced by re- that otherwise would be discarded, the system essentially pays for itself.32 charge. If encouraged, industrial recycling can make a dramatic difference in a region's water use and quality. In Sweden, strict Some industrial plants are already op- pollution control requirements have led erating close to these recycling levels, to widespread adoption of recycling in attesting to the technical feasibility of at- the pulp and paper industry, which ac- taining them. An Armco steel mill in counts for 80 percent of the nation's in- Kansas City, Missouri, that manufac- dustrial water use. Between the early six- tures steel bars from recycled ferrous ties and late seventies, the industry scrap draws into the mill only 9 cubic halved its water use while doubling pro- meters of water per ton of steel production, a fourfold increase in water effi- duced, compared with as much as 100- ciency. Not only were Sweden's rivers 200 cubic meters per ton in many other and streams much cleaner, the nation's steel plants. Besides cutting its total total water use in the mid-seventies was water needs by using recycled iron scrap only half the level projected a decade rather than new metal in its production, earlier.33 the Armco plant uses each liter of water The Israeli government sets water use 16 times before releasing it, after final standards for industry, allocating to each treatment, to the river. One paper mill in factory only as much water as necessary Hadera, Israel, requires only 12 cubic to achieve its production target. As new meters of water per ton of paper, technologies are developed, the stan- whereas many of the world's mills use dards become more stringent. This 7-10 times this amount. In water-short forced efficiency has greatly increased regions of the Soviet Union, six oil refin- water productivity. (See Table 3-5.) In eries are now using closed water sys- just two decades, the inflation-adjusted tems; wastewater is continuously treated value of industrial output per cubic and reused so that nom is discharged." meter of water used rose 3.3 times.34 In deciding how much to recycle, any Along with industrial recycling, reus- industry weighs the combined costs of ing municipal supplies can reduce de- getting water and treating it prior to dis- mands for high-quality water. Most of posal with those of treating wastewaters the world's cities have opted for central- for reuse within the plant. In most indus- ized sewer systems that collect house- tries, recycling offsets its costs by recov- hold and commercial wastewater via an

6,5 rOye-r.4.

IncreasingWater Efficiency (51) Table 3-5. Israel: WaterProductivity in Selected Industries, 1962-82 Value of Output Per Cubic Meter Industry 1962 1982' Change (constant Israeli pounds) (percent) Rubber and Plastic Cocas 107.5 333.3 +210 Food 84.7 166.7 + 97 Textiles 66.7 142.9 +114 Wood Products 55.2 500.0 +806 Chemicals 35.3 111.1 +215 Paper Products 15.7 71.4 +355 Mining and Quarrying 6.8 20.0 +194

All Industries 50.0 166.7 +233 1Preliminaly estimates. SOURCE: Saul Arlosoroff, "Water Management Policies Under Scarce Conditions," presented at Water for the 21st Century: Will It Pe There? Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Tex., April 1984. extensive piping network, transport it to water and wastewater services can help a central treatment plant, and then dis- meet rising household water demands, pose of it to the ocean, a bay, or a nearby which in some cities may double or triple river. Treatment progresses in stages, over the next two decades. starting with physical processes that re- In the Valley of Mexico, for example, move solids,followed by biological 4 out of every 10 liters pumped from methods that reduce organic matter, and local aquifers are not replaced by re- then by chemical treatment for further charge. Portions of the land already are upgrading. The level of treatment given sinking from the overpumping, and few usually depends on the water quality affordable options exist to import more controls in effect. In the United States, fresh water. In the region known as the federal laws stipulate that most wastewa- Federal District, which includes about 70 ters be treated at least through the sec- percent of the Mexico City metropolitan ond stage before being released to the area population, treated wastewater pro- environment. Such treatment generally vides about 4 percent of current water makes the water suitable for use where use, mainly watering public parks and people will not directly contact itin in- filling recreational lakes. Planners have dustrial cooling or pasture irrigation, for set the year 2000 as a target for reusing instance. More-extensive treatment can 17 percent of the wastewater generated make the water safe for a wide variety of in the district, which, if accomplished, other functions. would meet about 12 percent of pro- By setting and enforcing pollution jected water demands.35 controlstandardsandencouraging In Israel, where virtually no freshwa- reuse of existing supplies, policymakers ter supplies remain untapped, all new can lessen the need to import costly new demands will be met by treating and supplies from a distant river basin or to reusing wastewater. Reclaimed water overexploit underground aquifers. Es- will replace one fourth or more of the pecially in many Third World cities, in- fresh water currently used in agriculture, corporating water reuse into plans for releasing high-quality supplies for grow-

6 klmisimmol (52) State of the World-1986 ing cities and industries. By the year and phosphorus that urban wastewater 2000, treated wastewater is expected to contains in large amounts. According to supply 16 percent of the nation's total one calculation, it would take 53 million water needs, up from 4 percent in barrels of oilworth $1.4 billionto re- 1980.36 place with petroleum-based fertilizers In the United States, despite federal the amount of nutrients yearly disposed water quality laws that expressly encour- of in U.S. wastewaters." age reuse, reclaimed wastewater repre- Provided harmful constituents are sents only 0.2 percent of total annual removed and monitored, such payoffs water use. Most communities have cho- can be powerful incentives for the land- sen the conventional treat-and-dispose treatment approach to water reuse. types of systems. A survey in the late Would-be pollutants become valuable seventies showed that 536 reuse projects fertilizing agents; the irrigated land re- were under way, collectively using about turns benefits, such as revenue from 937 million cubic meters of treated marketable crops or a green landscape wastewater annually. Over 60 percent of for a park; and the reclaimed water is a it was used for irrigating crops, parks, reliable, nearby source of supply. and landscapes; a third for industrial In Future Water, John R. Sheaffer and cooling and processing; and the remain- Leonard A. Stevens cite some impressive der for recharging groundwater and var- successes with land-treatment designs. ious recreational functions." For example, one system that has been California, which leads the United serving Muskegon County, Michigan, States in the nuinber of reuse projects, for a decade (and which Sheaffer code- has promoted wastewater reclamation as signed) handles 159,000 cubic meters of an integral part of its water management wastewater per day and irrigates 2,145 hectares of cropland. In1981,the plans. Collectively, the state's 380 indi- county earned $1.2 million by selling vidual sites now supplied with reclaimed wastewater-irrigated corn for feed, and water (versus 283 sites identified in thz the treatment system turned a $250,000 late seventies' survey) return to produc- profit." tive use more than 271 million cubic me- Incomplete knowledge of the health ters of water annuallya volume equal effects of various pollutants remains a to the yearly household needs of 1 mil- barrier to water reuse. Ways to reduce lion people." and monitor levels of bacteria in wastewater are well understood, but much is unknown about viruses, heavy metals, Many cities will experience more and organic chemicals. Where wastewa- frequent shortages if steps toward ter is used for irrigation or is otherwise conservation and greater water effi- applied to the land, crops must be se- ciency are not taken. lected carefully. Not only do they differ in their ability to take up nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassiumand thus to adequately treat the waterbut some Though typically viewed as "pollu- are harmed by or may concentrate heavy tants," most wastewater constituents are metals, such as cadmium, copper, nickel, nutrients that belong on the lard, where and zinc 4' they originated. Farmers and gardeners Unless removed, heavy metals could spend millions of dollars on fertilizers to accumulate in the soil or percolate to give their crops the nitrogen, potassium, groundwater, possibly contaminating a Increasing Water Efficiency (53 ) community'sdrinking watersupply. of money to build, expand, operate, and Pathogenic organisrcan survive bio- maintain. logical (seconday-, .vel)treatment, In the Third World, the challenge is to which is the maximum now required at develop and install affordable technolo- most U.S. facilities. Moreover, many gies to meet the basic water supply and community treatment plants do not con- sanitation needs of the millions of peo- sistently operate properly, and aome- ple who now lack them. As urban popu- times fail to meet specified quality stan- lations expand, this challenge becomes dards.42 Stricter enforcement of more and more formidable. Peru-based standards could eliminate many of these engineers Carl R. Bartone and Htnry J. risks and uncertainties. But where they Salas write that "the explosive urbaniza- persist, treated wastewater must be used tion in the Latin American countries has cautiously, and only where human expo- given rise almost overnight to peripheral sure to it is limited. communities that severely strain the In very special circumstances, waste- ability of water and .sewa authorities to water reclaimed to an exceptionally high provide even minimal services."'" quality may be used to supplement a Cities in the industrial world, on the city's drinking water supplies. Though other hand, face spiraling demands as- expensive, the most advanced biological sociated with affluence Arowth and chemical treatment processes can thirsty green lawns in sp...,tviing subur- virtually eliminate harmful pathogens ban areas, swimming pools, additional and dangerous pollutants. Windhoek, in cars to wash, and houses filled with wa- Namibia, was the first city to add re- ter-intensive appliances. With increasing claimed water to its public supply, and constraints on expanding their supplies, has been doing so for more than a c' many cities will experience more fre- ad e.Inthe United States,Denver, quent shortages if steps toward conser- Colorado, i3 operating a demonstration vation and greater water efficiency are plant to study this idea, and in the spring not taken. of 1985, the Texas city of El Paso began Conservation has many times pulled injecting highly treated wastewater into comminLities through short-term cases, the aquifer used as its primary public such as drought-indticed shortages. Put- water supplythe first such project in ting conservation to work in meeting the nation. Much should be learned in long-term water needs, however, is a the years ahead from these pioneering relatively new idea. Planners have typi- efforts in water-short areas.48 cally projected future water demands based on the historical rate of growth in per capita water use and the projected future population. They then plan to meet this estimated demand by drilling CONSERVATION IN CITIES more wells or building new reservoirs and by expanding the capacity of their Though accounting for less than a tenth water and wastewater treatment plants. of water withdrawals worldwide, urban Rarely have planners focused on reduc- areas face severe physical and financial ing demand as a way to balance the long- constraints on adequately meeting their term supply/demand equation. residents' water needs. The reservoirs, Only a few cities have broken the his- canals, pipes, sewers, and treatment torical rise in per capita water use. Be- plants that make up a modern wate and cause of conservation and water reuse, wastewater system require vast amounts Tucson, Arizona, now plans for a per

68 (54) State of the World-1986 capita level of freshwater use 25 percent son's comparatively modest investment lower than in the early seventies. Like in conservation allowed it to defer $45 most water systems, Tucson's was de- million in capital costs that would have signed to meet the city's peak day de- been needed to meet an otherwise un- mand. For most western U.S. cities, this managed demand.47 occurs on one of the hottest days of sum- Conservation requires creativity; mer, and can be two to four times there is no ready-made package that will greater than the year-round average prove effective and economical for every daily demand. A mid-seventies study community. But successful efforts to found that with peak demand nearing permanently curb per capita demand in the system's capacity, if the city's growth variably include some combination of and pattern of water use continued, water-saving technologies, economic in- $145 million would have to be invested centives, regulations, and consumer ed- by 1983 to drill more groundwater wells ucation. These measures are mutually and build larger transmission pipes.45 reinforcing, and they are most effective Until that time, the policy of Tucson when implemented joingy. Higher water Water, the municipally owned water util- rates, for example, encourage consum- ity, was like that of most water suppliers ers to install water-saving devices in to plan to meet projected demands by their homes and apartments and to opt developing new water sources and ex- for native landscaping when purchasing panding the supply system. But faced a new home. Education is crucial to gain with such large capital costs, the city support for conservation, and to make chose to shift its strategy from simply people aware of the easy and cost-effec- meeting the demand to managing it, and tive ways they can save water.48 it set a goal of postponing the need for Many water-using technologies, espe- YY some 30 percent of projected new capi- cially those adopted in the United States, tal requirements.46 were not designed with water efficiency Hefty water price increases caused an in mind. A typical U.S. toiletthe big- initial dramatic drop in Tucson's per gest water user in the hometurns capita use between the middle and late about 19 liters (5 gallons) of drin'ing- seventies. In June 1977, the city initiated quality water into wastewater each time its "Beat the Peak" program, aimed at it is flushed. This is an extravagance few cutting outdoor water use. Each sum- wat.tr and wastewater utilities will long mer, residents are asked not to water be able to affordand a needless waste more than every other day, and never of costly, high-quality water. For com- between the hours of 4:00 and 8:00 p.m. parison, most toilets in West Germany Desert landscaping is promoted as a re- work well with only 9 liters, and in Scan- placement for green lawns. Largely be- dinavia, 6-liter toilets have been routine cause of altered outdoor water use pat- since 1975.49 terns,TucsonWater's peakday In recent years, U.S. manufacturers pumpage dropped by 26 percent in less have designed a variety of fixtures that than a decade, from nearly 568,000 can greatly reduce water use indoors. cubic meters in 1976 to 420,000 cubic (See Table 3-6.) Substituting the most meters in 1984. Moreovzr, year-round common water-saving varietiesmany average daily demand fell by 27 percent, of which are now widely installed in to abow 570 liters per personstill high western homesfor conventional by many nations' standards, but low for American modelscanreducetotal a western U.S. city. Besides helping to household water use by a fifth. The slow Cie depletion of its aquifers, Tuc- fixtures that use extremely little water

69 .°177V

Increasing Water Efficiency (55) that are now available from some manu- delayed or scaled down in size, -again re- facturers cut existing levels by as much ducing investment needs. One study for as 50-70 percent. Many cities, including the Califorqia Department of Water Re- those in the eastern United States forced sources found, for example, that reduc- to ration water in 1985, could benefit by ing household water use in both new and setting water-appliance efficiency stan- existing homes to the economically opti- dards and instituting programs to re- mum level would cut statewide capital trofit existing fixtures with inexpensive requirements for wastewater treatment water-saving devices. Simply getting toi- by more than $200 million. Saving water lets to operate at 13 liters per flush, in- also saves energy, because less water stead of the typical 19 liters, could cut needs to be pumped through the urban total residential water use by at least 10 systemfromsource,totreatment percent. plant, to homes, and finally to the waste- Since conservingwaterindoors water plant. Direct energy costs account reduces sewage flows, plans to expand for about 20 percent of the total operat- wastewater treatment facilities can be ing budgets of most water and waste- Table 3-6.United States: Potential Water Savings with Available Water-Efficient Household Fixtures Water Savings Over Fixture Water Use Conventional Fixtures (liters/use) (percent) Toilets Conventional 19 Common low-flush 13 32 Washdown 4 79 Air-assisted 2 89

Clothes Washers Conventional 140 Wash recycle 100 29 Front-loading 80 43

(liters/minute) Showerheads Conventional 19 Common low-flow 11 42 Flow-limiting 7 63 Air-assisted 2 89

Faucets Conventional 12 Common low-flow 10 17 Flow-limiting 6 50 sources. Figures for common low-flush and low-flow fixtures from Brown and Caldwell (Inc.),Resdenital Water Conservation Projects(Washington, D.C.. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 1984). All others from Robert L. Siegnst, "Minimum -Flow Plumbing Fixtures,"journal of the Anterwan Water Works Assonateon,July 1983.

70 (56) State of the World -1986 water utilities, so cutting the volume of as 25-50 percent of their water supplies flowcansignificantlylowerutility in this way. These are costly losses be- costs." cause this "unaccounted-for water" is Rounding out conservation's benefits secured,stored,treated,anddis- are energy savings in the home. Since tributed, but it never reaches a billable about 15 percent of the total energy customer.53 used in a typical household is for heating Except where leakage is extremely water, measures that save hot water can low, finding and fixing leaks will usually significantly lower energy costs. In most pay. In Vienna, Austria, such an effort cases these energy savings pay back the returned to productive use 64,000 cubic cost of the water-conserving fixture meters per dayroughly enough to within a few years at most. For example, meet the household needs of 400,000 simply installing a low-flow showerhead peopleand allowed the city to post- can reduce the year's electricity bill for a pone new capacity investments. In the family of four with an electric water Philippinescapitalof Manila, water heater by about $100.51 losses from an aging and poorly main- Besides encouraging their consumers tained supply network were averaging to conserve, urban water suppliers can 50 percent in the seventies. A 1983 pilot stretch existing supplies through im- project cut water losses in one northern proved management techniques. Water area by a fifth, and the city's goal is to agencies in the Washington, D.C., met- reduce losses to less than 30 percent ropolitan area, faced with a growing im- throughout the metropolitan area. The balance between projected demand and repairs are expected to salvage enough supplies, explored such an approach water to serve an additional 1 million after failing to agree on a strategy to people.54 build more dams and reservoirs. They Though conservation and better man- calculated that with a combination of agement can benefit growing Third measuresineluding higher feesfor World cities, the more urgent need is to higher rates ..... water use, public educa- develop water and sanitation technolo- tion, improved hydrologic forecasting, gies that can improve health standards new institutional arrangements for more while requiring less water, energy, and efficiently operating the water-delivery financial resources than the conven- network, a reallocation of some flood tional technologies used in the industrial storage capacity to water supply, and the world. Few Third World cities can afford construction of one small damexisting to adopt the kinds of water-intensive reservoirs could meet the area's needs practices used inthe United States until the year 2030. Spending $250 mil- today. Supplying the projected popula- lion for new reservoirs, the pre*. ious tion growth in most Latin American cit- recommendation, becameunneces- ies, for example, will require that levels sary.52 of water use not rise much above their Investing in leak detection and repair present range: 75-150 liters per person is one of the most universally cost-effec- per day.55 tive conservation measures urban sup- Many intermediate technologies for pliers can undertake. Especially in older urban sanitation exist between the sim- or poorly maintained water systems, a ple pit latrine and the water-borne piped large share of the supply often seeps out sewage system. Ventilated and lined pit through broken pipes and other faults in latrines, toilets that use only 3 liters, sep- the distribution network. Many of the tic tanks that serve several houses, and world's major cities are losing as much waste stabilization ponds combined with

71 Increasing Water Efficiency (57) systems for reusing treated wastewaters Pricing policies that promote waste- are all being studied in various projects fulness still prevail m most countr;es. in Latin America. The African nations of Many governments pay all or most of the Botswana,Lesotho,Tanzania,and capital costs for major irrigation pro- Zambia are each implementing low-cost jects. Even in the United States, where urban sanitation programs, some aided western agriculture is arguably over- by bilateral and multilateral lending developed, farmers supplied with water agencies. Such projects can help develop from federal projects pay on average new models of affordable water and sani- only one fifth of the water's true cost. A tation services.56 1982 U.S. Department of Agriculture As incomes rise in the Third World, study found that nearly 80 percent of the efficiency must be built into water-using water from federal Bureau of Reclama- fixtures and appliances. Residents of tion projects was priced at $12 per 1,000 Beijing, China, now use an average of cubic meters (Sc! per 1,000 gallons) or 145 liters per person daily, but some less, too low to make most efficiency in- high-quality apartments register levels vestments economical. These prices re- between 300 and 450 liters. And certain flect the set of lenient repayment terms tourist hotels equipped with modern for irrigation projects that evolved ear- Western facilities reportedly use water at lier this century, including no interest the extraordinary rate of 2,000 liters per charges, repayment periods as long as person a day. A recent assessment of 60 years, and use of an "ability to pay" Beijing's water situation concludes that criterion in determining the share of "the prospect for the city to have a sta- costs beneficiaries would bear." ble, sustained, and adequate water supply for domestic and industrial use looks bleak. Unless remedial measures are In the United States, farmers sup- taken immediately and implemented on plied with water from federal proj- a sustained basis, sooner or later the city ects pay on average only one fifth will run out of water."57 A widespread of the water's true cost. increase in demand even approaching these higher water use levels would surely thwart the region's economic In Third World and industrial coun- growth. tries alike, farmers invariably will irrigate more efficiently if charged more for water. A study in Mexico, for example, found that where charges increased with the amount of water used, irrigation effi- BALANCING THE WATER ciencies averaged 20 percent higher EQUATION than where farmers paid a fixed fee unrelated to their usage." Though the technical means exist to in- Water prices should reflect the cost of crease water efficiency greatly, technol- supplying the next increment of water ogy alone cannot close the growing gap called the marginal or replacement cost between regional demands and supplies. so that consumers get accurate signals Unless the policies, laws, and institu- about water's true value. Government tions that govern water use begin to fos- policies to subsidize water obviously deter efficiency rather than discourage it, viate from this economic tenet. But even projected water shortages will worsen. most urban water utilities set charges to

72 (58) State of the World-1986 cover their yearly revenue requirements, including the states of California and which are based on historicalaverage Colorado, have taken steps to at least costs, not marginal costs. As industry an- partially remove the conservation disin- alyst Loren Mellendorf points out, pric- centive inherent in the "use it or lose it" ing water below its true cost is tan- principle of western water rights.62 tamount to accepting "an inability to With proper incentives and institu- meet tomorrow's demands."60 tional reforms, many prospective "water crises" could disappear. The Metropoli- tan Water District (MWD) in southern Of the 122 billion cubic meters California, which indirectly serves 12.6 pumped from the U.S. groundwa- million people, has estimated that its ter supply each year, 26 billion supplies could fall 14 percent short of demand by the year 2000, and conse- one fifthare nonrenewable. quently has pushed for greater imports of water from northern California. East of the MWD's service area, farmers in In most countries, the water rights and the Imperial Irrigation District (IID) irri- laws that shape patterns of water use are gate 200,000 hectares with highly subsi- also biased against conservation. In dized water from a federal reclamation many European countries and U.S. juris- project.63 dictions, the right to an allotted quantity A 1983 analysis by the Environmental of water may be lost if the full allotment Defense Fund suggests that if the MWD is not "beneficially'. used. Sinceconser- paid for conservation in the irrigation vation is not a beneficial use, farmers district in return for the water thereby and other water consumers are encour- saved, both parties would gain. It shows aged to use their full entitlementseven thatsuch a conservation/transfer if they could economically reduce their scheme could supply the MWD with water use. Contractual arrangements more water than each of two proposals may restrict beneficiaries of government to increase diversions from the north. projects from transferring water use ei- at a marginal cost respectively 27 per- ther to a different location or a different cent and 42 percent lower. (See Table function. If the savings from conserva- 3-7). By choosing the conservation al- tion cannot in some way be marketed, ternativeoverconventionalsupply water users again have little incentive to strategies, the MWD could save anes- invest in efficiency. Rather than buying timated $710 million over 20 years." water that a conserving farmer could In mid-1985, the IID retained a pri- profitably offer, new water consumers vate firm, the Pasadena-based Parsons pressure state and federal governments Corporation, to study further conserva- to build more water supply projects, and tion's potential and the market forcon- water demands and costs incessantly served water. Whether carried out bya rise.6i private company or the MWD itself,con- A number of jurisdictions have acted servation investments appear a cost- to remove these barriers to efficiency, effective way to balance supply and de- but institutions change slowly. In 1983, mand in southern California, and should officials in New South Wales, Australia, be explored elsewhere.65 adopted a plan allowing water transfers Large-scale water development in the between irrigators, though it applied orld began several decades later only for the 1983-84 irrigationseason. than in most industrial countries and is In the United States, a few jurisdictions, much less extensive. Yet given the ;nor-

73 Increasing Water Efficiency (59) Table 3-7. Southern California: Estimated Costs of Water Supply and Conservation Alternatives Representative Alternatives Annual Yield Marginal Cost (thousand(dollars/thousand cubic meters) cubic meters) Conserve/Transfer Irrigation Water 370,200 545

Develop Groundwater Basins 236,900 575

Reclaim and Reuse Wastewater 299,500 648

Conserve/Transfer Irrigation Water' 493,600 665

Build Newville Reservoir/Increase Diversions of Northern 271,500 750 Water

Build Los Vaqueros Reservoir/Increase Diversions of 327,000 943 Northern Water 'Includes lining a major canal in addition to the measures of the first conservation alternative. SOURCE: Adapted from Robert Stavins, "Trading Conservation Investments for Water," Environmental Defense Fund, Berkeley, Calif., March 1983. dinate investment requirements to ex- water tables, land subsidence, and salt- pand irrigation, and the growing prob- water intrusion. The pervasiveness of lems of land degradation from poor these problems is a clear sign that exist- water management, attention must al- ing institutions fail to foster sustainable ready turn to raisi ig the efficiency and groundwater use. Of the 122 billion productivity of existing systems. Accord- cubic meters pumped from the U.S. ing to Sadiqul 1. Bhuiyan of the Interna- groundwater supply each year, 26 billion tional Rice Research Institute in Manila, one fifthare nonrenewable.67 Those failuretoaddresstheinefficiency, pumping this water pay only the private inequity, and unreliability of irrigation costs of their water use, not the public systems will set back the momentum costs. They are charged nothing for the inThirdWorldfoodproduction. right to deplete a water reserve, even Throughout Southeast Asia, he points though such depletion diminishes the out, the share of irrigation project bud- nation's future food and water security. gets devoted to operation and mainte- Placing a tax on groundwater pumping nance is diminishing. Project staff are wherever aquifers are being depleted inadequately trained and are not suffi- would help equate private and social ciently accountable for the system to costs, and would encourage conserva- manage it responsibly. British irrigauon tion. Similarly, where water tables are specialist W.R. Rangeley echoes these dropping, taxing or otherwise limiting concerns, suggesting the need for na- withdrawals can restore a balance be- tional or international training programs tween pumping and recharge. in irrigation management.66 A model attempl to balance water Without adequate monitoring and budgets in the United States is Arizona's regulation, intent ive use of groundwater 1980 Groundwater Management Act. It can lead to aquifer depletion, falling calls for each of the state's four most

74 (6o) State of the World-1986 critical areas of groundwater overdraft Planners facing projected water short- to develop strategies to reduce ground- ages should consider conservation and water pumping to the level of recharge increased efficiency as alternatives to tra- by the year 2025. It requires conserva- ditional water supply strategies. The So- tion, calls for taxes on groundwater viet Union has reportedly decided to withdrawals, and, if it appears by the proceed with a long-debated project to year 2006 that balance will not be divert water from Siberian rivers into So- achieved, allows the state to begin buy- viet central Asia. The project's main pur- ing and retiring farmland. Projections pose is to expand irrigation, both to infor both the Phoenix and Tucson areas crease yields and to ensure greater show that most of the balancing will output during dry years. With an es- come from shifting water out of agricul- timated capital cost of $36.4 billionor ture to supply urban and industrial $15,700 for each of the 2.3 million hect- growth. Whether the act's goals can be ares expected to come under irrigation achieved without limiting the burgeon- and uncalculated environmental risks, ing populations of these cities remains to the diversion appears less desirable than be seen.68 a water efficiency strategy that might Standards can help encourage effi- achieve the same goals.71 ciency when the market fails to do so, or According to Soviet researchers, some where water is critically scarce. In Israel, which is now using virtually all its avail- 5 million hectares of irrigated land in able supplies, each farm and factory is central Asia are badly in need of upgrad- allotted only the minimum amount of ing. Water withdrawals for these farms is water necessary, assuming up-to-date excessiveoften two to three times conservation measures are in place. As greater than those on experimental plots new technologies are developed, more where irrigationsystems have been stringent water use standards are set, en- modernized. Consequently, the output suring that water efficiency continually from each unit of water diverted to fields increases .69 in the region is low. At $7,000 per hec- Several Americastates now have laws tare, modernizing all 5 million hectares requiring that fixtures installed in new would require an investment of $35 bil- homes, apartments, and offices meet lionroughly equal to that of the diver- specified water efficiency standards. But sion.72 thistransition could be greatly ex- Yet the returns from such an invest- pandedand made more quickly and ment should be far greater. Yields would uniformlyif standards were set at the increase, and land degradation from federal level. The government set simi- waterlogging and salinization would be lar standards in the mid-seventies to greatly lessened. Just a 30 percent re- boost auto fuel economy, and new cars duction in water withdrawals for those 5 are now twice as fuel-efficient as the av- million hectareswhich modernization erage car on the road a decade ago. If should achieve given the current high even modest water efficiency standards rates of water use cited by Soviet re- were set for toilets, showerheads, fau- searcherscould free as much water to cets, and dishwashers, residential water expand irrigation as would be supplied demands by the year 2000 could be re- by :lie Siberian diversion: 25 billion duced by 1.5 billion cubic meters annu- cubic meters per year. Moreover, since allya volume that would meet the these savings would begin to accrue in yearly residential needs of nearly 10 mil- just a few years, farmers might bring lion people." new land under irrigation long before

75 Increasing Water Efficiency (6t) any water from Siberia would arrive.73 nologies, if they are helped over the Writing in the journal Soviet Geography, cash-flow hurdle.75 researchers from the Soviet Institute of Including technicalassistance and Geography point out "there will obvi- low-interest loans to stimulate other ously be a time when the water resources conservation investments, the complete of the Aral Sea basin will be fully used up plan would cut agricultural water use by and water from Siberia will not yet be an estimated 17 percent, or 2.46 billion available.... Until the arrival of Siberian cubic meters per year. This is 30 percent water, southern Kazakhstan and Central more water than would be supplied by a Asia will have to rely on their own re- $ 10-billion cross-Texas diversion scheme sources." They further state that the examined by the Army Corps of Engi- pace of reconstructing irrigation systems neers. As Hightower says, "we can gen- intheregionis"obviously inade- erate more water resources for much quate."74 If the Soviet government can- less money by making an investment in not simultaneously invest in both the Si- water conservation."76 berian diversion and increasing water High costs, environmental risks, and efficiency,theefficiencystrategy tight budgets will make large water proj- though institutionally more difficult to ects increasingly unattractive and hard implementappears the sounder choice. to implement for some time to come. Yet In the United States, similar decisions few officials and water managers have re- face the state of Texas, where depletion placed their strategies of increasing sup- of the Ogallala aquifer threatens the lu- plies with ones geared toward reducing crative High Plains farming economy. demand. This gap in policy, planning, With no action taken on long-standing, and commitment can only lead to wors- multibillion-dollar proposals to divert ening water deficits and economic dis- water into he region from distant rivers, ruption. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Jim The transition toa water-efficient Hightower has proposed a strategy of economy will not be easy or painless. But state investments in water efficiency. By it has begun, and it should be fostered. offering 10 percent purchase rebates, at With thr. technologies and methods now a one-time cost to the state of $37 mil- available, even modest expenditures on lion, the pian would leverage the transi- conservation and efficiency could make tion to more efficient irrigation methods unnecessary many of the inordinately on 1.3 million hectares of farmland. It expensive, ecologically disruptive water reasonably assumes that farmers will buy projects that have dominated water- cost-effective,water-conservingtech- planning agendas for decades.

76 4 Managing Rangelands Edward C Wolf

Rangelands hold many paradoxes. The Where grazing animals form the basis world's vast plains, prairies, steppes, and of subsistence economies, as in much of savannas seem somehow on the periph- Africa, the Middle East, and parts of ery of modern life, and tending live- India and mainland Asia, other para- stock, an anachronism in the twentieth doxesemerge.Indrought-ravaged century. Though rangelands occupy far Africa, starvation and involuntary settle- more territory than croplands, they con- ment are narrowing the ranks of live- tribute a dwindling share of the world's stock-dependent pastoral people and wealth. But the 3 billion domestic rumi- making their share of the continent's nantscattle, sheep, goats, buffalo, and population ever smaller. But although camelsthat can turn indigestible cel- overgrazing by their herds has often lulose into protein-rich meat and milk been blamed for pastoralists' vulnerabil- form the largest herd ever, and the high- ity to drought and destitution, many ana- quality protein they supply is widely con- lysts now argue that poorly designed sidered a key to improving human diets.' developmentassistanceundermined Colonial empires in Latin America sound traditional practices and hastened were established on the wealth of grazing environmental deterioration.Perhaps herds, and the cattle boom on the U.S. most ironic, some of the innovative Great Plains earned that region a reputa- methods of grazing management de- tion as the Wall Street of the late nine- signed to make commercial ranching teenth century. But in recent years, more profitable and less damaging to mounting grain surpluses in Europe and rangelands are based rin herding strate- North America, along with government gies similar to those developed by pasto- subsidies for the production and export ral societies over millennia. of grain-fed beef, pork, and poultry, have More than other naturalsystems, narrowed the market for range-fed ani- rangelands force people who depend on mals. Affluent consumers concerned them to cooperate with ecological pat- about their health have begun to turn terns and recognize limits on what the their backs on beef as well, and even wool land will sustain. Examples from around from the world's sheep has been steadily the world show that sound management replaced by cheaper, synthetic fibers. can reclaim degraded land, raise range

77 Managing Range/ands (63 ) productivity severalfold, and increase make up nearly a quarter. When grazing the land's contribution to human wel- lands in forests and woodlands are in- fare. Unfortunately, vast expanses of cluded, the U.S.-based Society for Range wasteland and unproductive range tes- Management is correct in proclaiming tify that such management remains the "there is more rangeland on earth than exception. any other kind of land." Rangelands carpet the spaces between well-watered forests and barren deserts. The Arabic word "Sahel" literally means "shore": a coast of seasonal green south LESSONS OF A MARGINAL of the Sahara's ocean of sand. Where water falls intermittently in a short, in- RESOURCE tense rainy season, range grasses flour- The sheer vastness of the earth's range- ish in a brief burst of growth, flowering lands belies their reputation as marginal and setting seed. In parts of the world lands with limited economic potential. where long, cold winters prevail, the The 3.1 billion hectares of permanent short summer sustains a riot of prolific pasture and grazing land constitute growth on the range. Rangelands medi- more than twice the area of the world's ate between ecological sufficiency and cropland. (See Table 4-1.) While arable scarcitywhether the critical resource is measured in millimeters of rainfall or in lands account for 11 percent of the con- frost-free weeks. tinental area, lands used for grazing Taken as a whole, the earth's range- Table 4-1. World Land Resources, by land ecosystems are biologically vigor- Region, 1983 ous. In a 1972 survey of the productivity of plant communities, Russian ecologist Crop- Range- Forest and L.E. Rodin and colleagues from the Region land landWoodland Dokuchaev Soil Institute calculated that (million hectares) grasslandsthe predominant range eco- systemrepresent just 3 percent of the North America 236 265 591 world's total plant matter. Yet their annual growth produces 24.4 billion tons Latin Amr iica 175 550 999 of new biomass, over 14 percent of the accumulation of all ecosystems each Western Europe 95 71 126 year.3 This abundant yearly growth repre- E. Eur. and 278 388 949 sents a substantial resource of solar en- Soy. Union ergy fixed by living plants, but it is not in a form useful to people. Animals that eat Oceania 47 459 116 grasses or the foliage of range trees create an essential link between rangelands Africa 183 778 688 and human needs. Although humans cannot dig,;:: cellulose, cattle, sheep, Asia and 456 645 561 and goats have four-chambered stom- Mideast achs that break cellulose into its component carbohydrates, sustaining the ani- World 1,4703,156 4,030 mals that eventually supply high-quality souRcz: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, protein to people. Production Yearbook(Rome: 1984). Grasslands on every continent once (64) State of the World-1986 sustained vast arrays of wild grazing ani- ciencies mean that the forage, though mals. Only in a few places do intact com- more abundant, is less nutritious. Cattle munities of such mammals remain. Few cannot offset the lack of nutrients in the match the diversity found on Fast plants they eat simFiy by eating more, so Africa's Serengeti, where 91 species zon- herders in the region are forced in nor- sume the grass and browse on the Plain. mal years to choose between high-qual- "The great diversity of wildlife in the ity forage and access to drinking water.5 savannas of East Africa is possible due to Forage quality varies over the course differences intheir dietary require- of the growing season as well. Plants are ments," points out a report from Win- at their most nutritious and palatable as rock International, a U.S.-based center young, tender shootsbut they are also for livestock research. "For example, most likely then to b e grazed beyond elands and Grant's gazelles are predomi- their ability to regen Orate. Preserving nantly browsers, Thomson's gazelle. the productivity of range vegetation can and wildebeests prefer s1sort grass, a.id mean abstaining from grazing during zebras seemtoprefer intermediate months when animals would be able to grass, including stems. Giraffes select gain weight most rapidly. Grazing dur- leaves and new growth from woody ing the dry season, when plants are dor- plants while elephants consume large mant, has much less effect on the robust- quantities of coarse material." Such se- ness of forage plants, yet the plants are lective consumption of many different far less nutritious as well. At this time of plants maximizes the land's protein year, the foliage of palatable shrubs and yield. According to a National Academy trees can be an important forage supple- of Sciences study, while savanna grass- ment. lands in the Sahel support 20-28 kilo- A Winrock International report on grams of cattle per hectare, they can sus- arid and semiarid lands sums up the tain 65-158 kilograms of wild grazing dilemmas of range users: "Grazing man- animals per hectare.4 agement ...is faced with an apparent On most rangelands, the availability of contradiction of needing to use the avail- nutritious forage depends on the se- able forage during the time of optimum quence and intensity of grazing. Wild quality, and at the same time avoid such herds, along with periodic natural fires, heavy grazing as to reduce productivity maintained the productivity of grass- or change the vegetative composition in lands and savannas for eons before hu- unfavorable ways."6 The biology of mansdomesticatedanimals.Well- rangelands forces users to forgo some managed grazing by domestic livestock kinds of production if chey want to main- can keep rangelands not only more pro- tain or enhance other kinds. When these ductive, but biologically more diverse as trade-offs are ignored, or when poverty well. limits peoples' choices, self-reinforcing Attempts to harvest this productivity declines in range productivity and carry- face inescapable biological trade-offs in- ing capacity can be set in motion. volving the distribution of water and nutrients. Forage quantity and nutritional quality are seldom at their maximums in the same places. In the northern Sahel, for instance, water is scarce but the avail- RANCHERS AND able forage is high in both protein and PASTORALISTS digestibility because the soil has sufficient nitrogen and phosphorus. In the Domestic livestock dominate the. TO- better-watered south, soil mineral defi- nomic activities sustained by rangelai ids. 79

$, Managing Rangelands (65) Cattle, sheep, goats, and camels are the portance, rangelands everywhere have ubiquitous companions of humans in been converted to more lucrative land these areas. Whethcr they supply meat uses. Millions of hectares of natural and milk in market-oriented ranching grasslands, often t%e !rest fertile of the and mixed farming enterprises or pro- world's grazing lands, have been plowed vide the cornerstone of family wealth and planted to crops in the last century, and community for nomadic pastoral- in tandem with the accelerating growth ists, livestock remain the focus of most of the world's population.8 rangeland livelihoods. Livestock numbers have grown steadily over the past generation, though not Range grazing supports a dwin- quite apace with the human population. dling share of livestock in indus- The world's cattle herd grew from some countries 770 million in 1950 to 1.3 billion in trialand developing 1984, increasing 1.5 percent each year. alike. Sheep and goat herds grew by half, from just over 1 billion at mid-century to 1.6 billion in 1984.7 (See Table 4-2.) The 103 million hectares of fertilized Three quarters of the world's 3 billion pastures and forage crops like alfalfa in domestic ruminants are raised in con- the United States provide 84 percent of junction with farming and are fed on all roughage consumed by livestock hay, sown forages such as alfalfa, and there. The diminishing role of range- crop residues. Range grazing supports a lands is as apparent in much of the Third dwindling share of livestock in industrial World. Inci:R's livestock get 91 percent and developing countries alike. As inten- of their feed requirements from forage sive livestock production has expanded crops and crop residues, and only about and range grazing has declined in im- 4 percent from rangelands. Though lit- Table 4-2. World Domestic Ruminant Resources, by Region, 1984

Sheep and Region Cattle Goats Buffalo Total (million head) North America 126 14 140

Latin America 312 148 460

Western Europe 101 115 216

E. Eur and Soviet Union 153 195 348

Oceania 30 210 240

Africa 176 340 2 518

Asia and Mideast 374 578 122 1,074

World 1,272 1,600 124 2,996 SOURCE. U.N Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook (Rome 1984). so (66) State of the World-1986 tle of India's grain can be spared to feed The interior of Australia and the high animals, many of the country's cattle country of South Island, New Zealand, graze crop residues and stubble after the havealso been majoisuppliersof harvest. Their manure fertilizesthe ranched wool. fields for the next planting, one of the In the United States, ranching today advantages of integrating farming with plays a small but still integral role in cat- livestock production.9 tle and sheep production. U.S. range- The commercial production of beef, land, an area more than twice as large as hides, and wool remains the most impor- the country's cropland base, supplies tant range-based economic activity in in- just 16 percent of the roughage in live- dustrialcountries. Ranched livestock stock diets. (See Table 4-3.) Two thirds tend to disperse over large areas, proof this range, 215 million hectares, is pri- tected from predators by fences and vate land. The remaining 104 million cowboys. They are often trucked to dis- hectares is publicly owned land, most of tant pastures when the seasons change. it managed by the Bureau of Land Man- Ranching has been described as "a child agement (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Ser- of the Industrial Revolution."' vice.' With the exception of efforts in the In 1984, the BLM issued permits al- tk past two decades to promote ranching as lowing private ranchers to graze their an alternative to pastoralism in Africa, herds on 69 million hectares of public the system has been restricted to regions land. The 2 million cattle and 2.3 million settled by Europeans. The Great Plains sheep for which permits were issued ac- of North America, Venezuela's Banos. counted for less than 4 percent of the the Brazilian sena°, and the pampas of U.S. herds of these animals, indicating Uruguay and Argentina are important how marginal range grazing has become ranching areas in the western hemi- in the American livestock economy.'2 sphere. In Africa, only South Africa's The seemingly inconsequentiai con- Karroo has a long history of ranching. tribution of rangeland is due to the Table 4-3. United States: Sources of Livestock Forage,1976

Land Arc_ Feed Value Million Percent Million Percent Source Hectares of Area AUMs' of Roughage

Range Crazing 319 75 213 16

Nonrange Grazing All Pasture2 79 19 687 51

Crop Residues n a. n.a. 14 1

Forage Crops 24 6 444 32

Total 422 100 1,358 100 'Animal Unit Month (AUM) is the quantity of forage needed to sustain a 1,000-poundcow for one month2lncludes nonrange permanent pasture and pasture in rotation with cultivated crops. sotRC es U S Department of Agriculture, An Assessment of the Forest and Rangeland Situation in the United Slates, Forest Resource Report No. 22 (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1981), and U.S. Department of ,Agriculture, Agnaehural Statutes 1983 (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983).

81 Managing Rangelands (67) highly stratified system by which beef is tions include approximately 10 million produced in the United States today. people in Asia, 5 million in North and Calves are commonly raised to maturity South America, and less than 500,000 in on pasture or western rangeland, then Australia. The Third World countries shipped to feedlots where they are fed with the largest pastoral groupsar- large amounts of grain and protein-rich ranged in order of decreasing numbers feeds to fatten them for slaughter. The are Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Ethiopia, open range supplies only a small part of Kenya, Mali, Mauritania,India, and these animals' life-cycle food supply. China. True pastoralists probably ac- Advanced technology in livestock pro- count for less than1 percent of the duction, surplus feed grains, and new world's population." ways to manipulate the physiology of ruminants have all increased the efficiency of meat production while reduc- True pastoralists probably account ing the importance of access to grazing for less than 1 percent of the land. Once an autonomous system for producing meat and hides, ranching has world's population. now become an appendage of more complex, technically sophisticated ways of supplying livestock products. Accord- In most pastoral societies, people are ing to Roy Van Arsdall of the U.S. De- sustained primarily by milk. Levels of partment of Agriculture, "The concen- milk production from pastoralists' ani- tration of livestock production into ever mals help them judge the condition of larger and more highly specialized oper- forage supplies. According to the Inter- ations requires direct use of land for lit- national Livestock Center for Africa tle more than a building site."" (ILCA), emphasizing the production and In much of Africa, the Middle East, consumption of milk allows pastoralists parts of India, and parts of Latin Amer- to take the best advantage of marginal, ica, livestock are herded over vast areas semiarid rangeland in two ways: They of natural rangeland as they 'nave been can maximize both the food output and for millennia. Pastoralism, as such mi- the number of people that each hectare gratory systems are known, takes many of land will sustain," formsfrom pure nomadism to virtually African pastoral systems compare fa- settled farming. Pastoralists rely on cat- vorably with the market-oriented ranch- tle, goats, sheep, and camels primarily ing systems of the United States and for subsistence and survival, rather than Australia as efficient users of rangeland. for the production of meat or hides for (See Table 4-4.) Transhumant pastoral- the marketplace. Pastoralists' economies ism, a system in which herders and their are based on the natural productivity of families move with their animals during the and these people are often part of the year and stay in one place for among the first victims of ecological the remainder, can be up to 10 times as deterioration. productive per hectare as ranching in Sub-Saharan Africa has the most pas- supplying protein for human diets. Per toralists, with common estimates of be- worker-hour, on the other hand, conven- tween 15 million and 2F million people. tional ranching is vastly more produc- In the Middle Ea3t, pastoralists today tive. Ranching originally flourished in may number lessthan2.5million, areas like Australia and the western though they were once far more numer- United States where land was abundant ous. Other livestock-dependent popula- and labor was scarce, whereas pastoral

82 (68) State of the World-1986 ism tends to be practiced where popula- pastoralism led British journalist Lloyd tions are growing and few employment Timberlake to conclude in Africa in Crisis: alternatives exist. "Africa is littered with examples ofarro- In most pastoral communities, the gant and failed attempts to 'rationalise' ratio of people to livestock is quite high. pastoralism, which have often caused This allows pastoralists to supervise desertification and bloodshed,as well as their herds and to exploit the subtle wasted considt.' 'e amounts of variations in vegetation, :alecting rain- money."16 fall patterns, that determine the nutri- Pastoralists are nowhere free from the tional quality of forage. Constantlymov- influence of modern life. Politicalau- ing and managing their herdsto fully thorities curtail their migrations andtax exploit the land's productivity, pastoral their meager material wealth. Cultiva- societies developed exemplaryrange tors clear fields in traditional dry-season management methods. Sadly, few of pastures. Traders encourage depen- these practices have survived agenera- dence on a commercial economyover tion of contact with the modern world. which pastoralists exercise little control. Since independence, most African As populations grow, the rangelands governments have attempted to settle that remain for them can no longersus- pastoralists, perceiving nomadic people tain herds or families. No economicmar- as obstacles to national integration and gin protects them from the vicissitudes even as security risks. Misunderstanding of drought. pastoralists'priorities,governments In the Sahel countries of West Africa, have interrupted annaal migrations and the breakdown of pastoralism isespe- converted subsistence livelihoodsto cially desperate. Droughts there have al- commercial schemes that producemeat ways taken a high toll of pastoralists' ani- for urban consumers and forexport. A mals; herds were commonly expanded in review of various attempts torestructure good years in order to be prepared for the inevitable bad ones. Over thepast 18 Table 4-4. Livestock Protein Production years, however, sustained drought has in Various Semiarid Regions and Under been coupled with steady humanpopu- Several Pastoralist Systems in the Sahel' lation growth and the loss of dry-season pastures to cultivators. Herds rebuilt Per Per Region after episodes of drought have proved Hectare Worker-Hour insufficient to support the families that (grams per year) depend on them. U.S. Southwest300-500 900-1,400 Writing of the herd losses andpastor- alists' response to drought a decadeago, Australia 400 1,900 Dutch ecoloivists H. Bremen and C.T. de Wit observed, "Total herd size hasre- African Sahel turned to the 1970 level, but livestock Nomadism 400 10 density is still only 3.5 tropical animal Trans- 600-3,200 10-70 units Der person because of the popula- humance tion growth of 2.5 percentpc: year."17 Sedentary 300 40 Four to five animals perperson is considered the minimum needed to sustain 'Each zone receives less than 500 millimeters of rainfall annually. pastoralistsfamilies. Birth rates out- SOURCE: H. Bremen and C.T. de Wit, "Rangeland paced the ability of herds to feed pastor- Productivity and Exploitation in the Sahel." Science, alists adequately, a problem that has be- September 30, 1983. come more acute with the catastrophic 83 Managing Rangelands (69) herd losses reported in the early eight- misuse look much the same in West ies. Texas and Sudan. They can be restored When drought strikes, pastoralists re- only if new ways to manage the land are spond as a last resort by selling their integrated with the social and economic animals to purchase grain. The ratio of needs of people who depend on it. Un- livestock prices to grain prices thus pro- fortunately, in many regions today live- vides an index of p:,storalists' access to stock herds and the biological productiv- sufficient food supplies. When grain ity of grazing lands are on a collision pricesrise due to region-wide food course, a path that diminishes both shortages, livestock prices may actually human and ecological welfare. decline as large numbers of animals, many in poor health, are offered for sale. In the Ethiopian famine of 1973 "4, starvation's victims included a dispro- pertionately large share of pastoralists. TURNING FORESTS INTO Indianeconomist Amartya Sen explained their tragic vulnerability: "The GRASS characteristics of exchange relations be- A century ago, North America's vast tween the pastoral and the agricultural plains surrendered to the relentless ad- economies thus contributed to the star- vance of ranchers and their herds. The vation of the herdsmen by making price cattle boom came at a steep price: de- movements reinforcerather than graded land that has resisted a half-cen- counteractthe declineinlivestock quantity. The pastoralist, hit by the tury of efforts at rehabilitation. In recent drought, was decimated by the market years, rancng has been embraced as the key to subduing another "frontier" mechanism."18 the tropical forests of Central and South America. Vast areas of rain forest were cleared during the seventies and Rangelands made barren through planted to exotic grasses, often with the misuse look much the same in West generous support of Latin American Texas and Sudan. governments. The beef raised on these pastures was destined for export markets in North America, Europe, and the Though worlds apart, pastoralists and oil-rich nations of the Middle East. commercial ranchers share a common Yet scarcely a decade after the expan- fate. The extraordinary success of mod- sion began, hopes of sustaining Latin ern agriculture and capital-intensive ani America's cattle boom have been sty- mal husbandry in industrial countries, mied by a combination of ecological and and the need to feed growing popula- economic factors.Unfortunately, the tions in the Third World, have appro- ecological consequences of this failed re- priated the best grazing lands for crop vival may prove as lasting as the Bad- production, leaving range-based liveli- lands created in temperate latitudes. hoods more vulnerable and less viable. Cattle and sheep came to Latin Amer- Throughoat the world, raising livestock ica with Spanish a:,d Portuguese colo- on rangeland is an increasingly marginal nists in the sixteenth century, and the activity practiced on land of low produc- region's first ranches were established tivityland thatis often further de- on natural grasslands in Brazil and graded by current grazing practices. Venezuela. Year-round grazing on the Rangelands made barren through fertile pampas of Argentina and Uru-

84 (7o) State of the World-1986 guay encouraged a steady growth in the of land had been cleared by 1980, the size of herds.19 greatest part of it for pasture. Despite the pace of this early develop- Agricultural censuses revealed that ment, abundant natural pasture and the cattle numbers in the Amazon doubled, physical difficulty of clearing forestspre- to 2.1 million head, between 1950 and cluded the incursion of ranching into 1975. In the eastern Amazon, herds forested areas. Though cattle spread were expanding at 12 percent each year with settlers to the farthest reaches of during the early seventies. The basinac- the Amazon Basin, and although ranch- counted for a growing share of Brazil's ing has always been a favored way of 90 million cattle." bringing Brazil's frontier into thena- CentralAmerica'sbeefexports tional economic sphere, the limits of that Table 4-5. Central America: Beef region's natural grmslInds established Production and Exports, 1961-851 the limits of die industry. As geographer Susanna. Hecht has noted, "The exis- Exports as tence for close to 300 years of successful Net Share of cattle ranching on Amazonian natural Year ProductionExportsProduction grasslands,withanimalpopulations (thousand roughly constant for the last 200years, metric tons) (percent) may well have acted as a 'blinder' for policy makers to many of the real envi- 1961 145 20 14 ronmental constraints in the region."" During the seventies, a dramatic in- 1965 179 34 20 crease in deforestation occurred in Cen- tral and South America. A simultaneous 197C 252 95 38 growth in beef exports to international 1975 297 118 40 markets was publicized by Britishcon- servationist Norman Myers, who docu- 1977 350 mented this "hamburger connection." 126 36 1978 391 155 40 The cattle raised on tropical pastures, 1979 400 162 40 never fattened in feedlots, supplied beef most suitable for fast-food outlets in 1980 355 110 31 North America and other industrial re 1981 355 101 28 gions, the food industry's most dynamic 182 360 91 25 market. Latin America's rush to create 1983 321 81 25 grazing lands and the rapid growth of its 1984 316 65 21 cattle herds rivaled the boom years of the cattle drives on the U.S. Great Plains 19852 318 61 19 a century ago.21 'Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Between 1961 and 1978, Central Nicaragua, and Panama.=Preliminary. American forests declined from 29.1 SOURCES: Data for 1961-78 from Douglas R. million to 17.8 million hectares. There- Shane, "Hoofprints on the Forest: An Inquiry into gion's cattle herd increased from 7 mil- the Beef Cattle Industry in the Tropical Forest Areas of Latin America " U.S. Department of lion in the early sixties to nearly 12 mil- State, Washington, D.C., March 1980; data for lion in 1978; although cattle ranches 1979-84 from U.S. Department of Agriculture were not the sole cause of deforestation, (USDA), Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), World most analysts agree that new pastures Livestock and Poultry Situation(FL8cP-1), Washing- ton, D.C., April 1985; estimate for 1985 from Rob- were the primary culprit. In the Amazon ert Curtis, USDA, FAS, Washington, D.C., private Basin, an additional 11 million hectares communication, August 22, 1985. 85 Managing Rangelands (7r) peaked in 1979, when 40 percent of the blamed on the "hamburgerconnec- region's production was sent to overseas tion."23 markets, principally in the United States. In Brazil, pressures on forests have (See Table 4-5.) The "hamburger con- not yet been fully relieved. The size of nection" in that year was unquestion- the country's cattle herd has remained able. Since then, however, beef produc- relatively stable since the late seventies, tion has declined by 82,000 metric tons, at about 93 million head. Beef produc- and exports by over 100,000 tons, mak- tion as a whole is stable as well, ata level ing them in 1985 the smallest share of below the 1977 peak of 2.45 million the region's production in 20 years. tons. But faced with a massive foreign The single most important factor in debt, Brazil has gone from exporting this decline was a substantial, and largely unexpected, drop in beef consumption Table 4-6. Brazil: Beef Production and in the United States, and a resulting Exports, 1961 -85 330,000-ton decline in beef imports. (See Figure 4-1.) Annual per capita con- Exports as sumption of beef has declined from its Net Share of high of 92 pounds in 1977 toan es- Year ProductionExportsProduction timated 77 pounds in 1985. The im- (thousand metric ported share of that consumption has tons) (percent) fallen as well. Imports have not supplied 1961 1,369 36 3 this small a share of U.S. beef consumption, now just 6 percent, since the mid- 1965 1,495 63 4 six ties. True, escalating warfare in El Salvador and Nicaragua, and a U.S. 1970 1,845 123 7 trade embargo against the latter country, are contributing to the decline in im- 1975 2,150 73 portsand in ways that further under- 3 minethe region's environmental 1977 2,450 156 6 stability. Nonetheless, liquidation of for- 1978 2,200 12 <1 ests in Central America can no longer be 1979 2,100 ( -4)' Thousand Metric Tons 1980 2,150 104 5 1,500 1981 2,250 224 10 1982 Source. U S Dept. of Agriculture 2,400 336 14 1983 2,400 380 16 1984 2,200 470 21 1,000 19852 2,300 470 20 'Net imports.=Preliminary. SOURCES: Dail for 1961-78 from Douglas R. Shane, "Hoofprints on the Forest: An Inquiry into 500 the Beef Cattle Industry in the Tropical Forest Areas of Latin America," U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C., March 1980; data for 1979-84 from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), World livestock and Poultry Situation (FL&P-1), Washing- 1960 1970 1280 1990 ton, D.C., April 1985; estimate for 1985 from Rob- ert Curtis, USDA, FAS, Washington, D.C., private Figure 4.1. U.S. Net Beef Imports, 1960.85 communication, August 22, 1985. (72) State of the World-1986 relatively insignificant quantities of beef mated herds throughout Africa, and mil- to being the largest beef exporter in lionsof pastoralists have losttheir Latin America. (See Table4-6.)By animals and become ecologicalre- 1985,Brazil accounted for more than fugees.25 half the beef exports of the entire conti- Desertificationthewatchwordof nent. The country has more than quad- rangeland deteriorationhas received rupled its exports since1980,mostly at widespread currency in the last decade. the expense of its own citizens. Per The term refers to a decline in the bio- capita consumption within Brazil has de- logical productivity and diversity of the clined by25percent. land to levels below the potential of the Much of Brazil's beef production is climate, soil, plant, and animal com- beingsustainedonforestpastures munities characteristic of a particular lo- cleared in the last decade, land that cation. Economic activities based on the many ecologists warn will quickly lose its land's natural productivity can precipi- productivity. The government has re- tate the decline and are diminished as it cently withdrawn the special subsidies progresses. and tax advantages that encouraged pas- Despite international conferences, the ture clearing during the seventies, mak- drafting of action plans, and the muster- ing it more difficult for ranchers simply ing of task forces in many parts of the to move on to new forest sites when the world, certainty about desertification's productivity of their land declines. Al- extent and remedies remains elusive. though Brazil's current export boom According to Dr. Harold Dregne of may only be temporary, the degradation Texas Tech University: "There's very of its intricate tropical forests will prove little of a scientific nature that is avail- irreversible.24 able anywhere in the world to evaluate the status of desertification. We're all going on estimates, guesses, and common knowledge. Nobody has done any- thing about improving our monitoring and our data base. It's very unsatisfac- THE FABRIC UNRAVELS tory."26 When rangelands deteriorate, the fabric The most recent global assessment of of ecological relationships frays. Vegeta- desertification was assembled by Aus- tion disappears from the landscape, tralian geographer Jack Mabbutt. Ac- leaving soils exposed to wind and water. cording to his1984survey, over a third When itrains, topsoil washes away. of the earth's land surface, land sustain- Watercourses are scoured by silt, which ing an estimated850million people, is fills reservoirs or rushes to the sea; the threatened with desertification. Of the eroded landscape loses its capacity to ab- world's 3.1 billion hectares of rangeland, sorb and store the next rainfall. De- Mabbutt estimated that as many as 1.3 pleted soils sustain less robust forage billion hectares may be severely de- when the next growing season arrives. graded: Productivity losses may exceed When degradation and drought coin- 50percent." cide, livestock dependent on the range Inappropriate grazing can hasten the can perish in large numbers. In Inner loss of productivity. Animals are not in- Mongolia, a drought in the late sixties discriminate in their grazing, and do- cut herd numbers from26million to mestic as well as wild herbivores tend to only 6 million. Eighteen years of inade- favor particular plants. Perennial grasses quate and declining rainfall have deci- provide the most nutritious and palat- 8 7 Managing Rangelands (73) able forage on many kinds of range- could be restricted, and that a commer- lands, and if herds are poorly managed, cial, market-oriented economy would grazing may eliminate perennials from generate less degradation of rangelands. the landscape. They tend to be replaced Although group ranches have proved by annual grasses and other invading successful in parts of Kenya and else- species that may be both less nutritious where in Africa, they have not provided and far less likely to sprout when rainfall a panaceafordeterioratingrange- is short. Writing of the Sahel region, lands.38 World Bank forester Jean Gorse notes Development assistance to pastoral- that "annual grasses now predominate, ists has sometimes fostered the deterio- having replaced the more valuable, but ration and vulnerability it was intended less resistant perennials. Annuals may to reverse. Since cattle need water every not appear for years in an area for lack day, and can graze only where they are of adequate moisture, and then produce a flush of good forage when the rais within a day's walk of it, much develop- 4 strike again."28 ment aid has been used to establish per- This gradual biological simplification manent water sources in dry-season of the land can heighten the competition grazing areas. The concentration of of domestic livestock and wild grazing herds around wells in the dry season cre- animals for available forage. Normally, ates a circle of trampled, barren land most wild animals and domestic rumi- called a "sacrifice area" that may be as nants do not interfere with one another much as several kilometers in diameter. because their forage preferences differ. The original scarcity of water, along with Grazing by domestic livestock can even traditionalgrazingrestrictions,kept change plant communities in ways that herds within the carrying capacity of favor wildlife on the same land. But their pastures. The newly abundant when the composition of range plants water supplies attract herds that forage has been altered enough to reduce over- supplies are unable to support. When all productivity, competition may inten- the resulting range deterioration is com- sify. According to Winrock Interna- pounded by drought, the main cause of tional: "When ranges are overgrazed, or livestockdeathsis starvation,not choices are ctherwise severely limited, thirst.31 diets of wild and domestic animals are practically the same. Under such conditions competition between and among Development assistance to pastor- wild and domestic animals can be se- alists has sometimes fostered the vere."29 deterioration and vulnerability it It has often been argued that the per- vasivedeteriorationofpastoralists' was intended to reverse. range areas simply reflects a "tragedy of the commons," in which the private benefits herders enjoy by acquiring more In countries where commercial ranch- livestock exceed the common costs that ing is the rule, rangelands fare no better. they confront as range is overgrazed. ILCA's Stephen Sandford argues that This belief has led to suggestions that "overstocking and environmental pastoralists' coimon grazinglands deterioration appear to be just as com- should be redistributed as private prop- mon and serious in areas of rangeland erty, that pastoralists should be settled where, as in parts of the USA and Aus- in ranch-style units in which herd sizes tralia, both land and livestock are indi-

88 ,°.

(74) State of the World-19,36 vidually owned." In the United States, ranching has been practiced by white the privilege of grazing on public lands farmers for generations, similar deterio- is rationed by a permit system adminis- ration of the rangeland is reportf.d. In a tered by the Bureau of Land Manage- speech announcing a National Grazing ment, in effect a means of regulating the Strategy before the South African House use of common land. The BLM, respon- of Assembly in May 1985, the Minister of sible for administering 69 million hect- Agriculture and Water Supply said: "Ap- ares of land primarily in the western proximately three million hectares of states, has assessed the condition of pub- [rangeland] area have been invaded to lic rangeland four times over the past such an extent by [woody] species that half-century. These assessme its show they are useless for normal stock farm- that despite 50 years of management, ing....Approximately two million hec- the share of public rangelands in "fair" `ares of veld in the North-western Cape or "poor" condition has never fallen have deteriorated to such an extent that below 60 percent." it cannot be restored to productive graz- In 1983, U.S. ranchers paid a fee of ing using normal control measures. $1.40 per animal to graze on public land. Moreover, veld conditions in half of the By contrast, private landowners who al- 1.4million hectares of Drakensberg lowedgrazing on comparable land grazingareaoftheSouth-eastern charged $8.85 for the privilege. The low Transvaal subregion are so poor that permit prices make grazing on federal stock ought to be withdrawn from the land relatively attractive, even where for- area for a considerable length of time." age is of poor quality. Inexpensive ac- According to the Minister, only 10 per- cess to federal rangeland actually en- cent of the natural rangelands of South hances the value of adjacent private Africa remain in good condition, and 60 land, leading ranchers to advocate graz- percent are in poor condition." ing allotments as high as the Bureau of Land Management will allow. Aside from encouraging high stocking levels on the nation's most vulnerable rangeland, the current grazing fee structure REGENERATING THE RANGE constitutes a public subsidy similar to the belo-o -cost rates for water from fed- As ranchersandpastoralistsare eral irrigation projects in the West." squeezed ever more tightly between Ranchers defend the low permit price land claimed by farmers and land too by citing the poor quality of forage on arid to sustain grazing, the effort to re- federal land. But the low price, and the generaterangelands becomes more consequent political pressure on federal challenging. Whatever technical mea- authorities to allow as much grazing as sures are proposed to restore range- possible, maintains the grazing at levels lands,their success will depend on that prevent forage from recovering. whether the people whose livelihoods Unfortunately, the profit margin has are affected support them. As range sci- vanished for much of the range-fed live- entist Chris Maser observes in a report stock production in the United States from the U.S. Office of Technology As- today, and the prospects of changing sessment: "We like to think that we man- grazing regulation in ways that increase age vegetation, animals, land, water, ranchers' costs are dim. etc., but we really only manipulate these In South Africa, where commercial components of the ecosystem. What we Managing Rangelands (75) manage is people'sattitudesand ternative to clearingnew fields to ex- desires."35 pand their harvests.57 In the Third World's rangelands, and Where commercial ranching isprac- especially in Africa, livestock-dependent ticed on natural rangelands, people remain threatened primarily grazing by management can be patternedmore the spread of rain-fed farmingonto graz- closely on the behavior of the wild ing lands. Here, efforts her- to raise agricul- bivores that once flourishedon such tural productivity must bea cornerstone lands. Most ranchers allow their of range management. Researchers herds to at disperse evenly over availablepastures, the International Livestock Centerfor but dispersed grazingeven by small Africa believe that improved animal hus- herds can selectivelyovergraze key for- bandry on small parcels of landcan raise age plants and disrupt the land's natural cropland fertility and help reduceten- pattern of ecological succession. When sions between herders and farmers. animals are closely herded, their impact In West Afrka, ILCA's researchers on the ecosystem approximates have developed "fodder banks" more to pro- closely the natural impact of wildher- vide adequate livestock feed duringthe bivores.Concentratedtrampling by dry season, when animals' milkyields, hoofed animals breaksup the soil sur- body weight, and reproductiverates all face and improves seeding, while short decline. When the annual rains begin, intervals of close grazing herds are crowded onto on a small area a 2-4 hectare subjects all plants to equalpressure and field, where their hooves breakthe fosters complete regeneration ofthe ground surface and their dung fertilizes plant community.38 the soil. The area is thensown with a One key to the success of innovative nitrogen-fixing crop that can be har- grazing strategies is closer attentionto vested to provide periodic rations ofnu- the timing of grazingon natural range- tritious fodder during the dryseason, land. Although mostrange management supplementing range grazing whennat- has emphasized the importance ofani- ural pastures are least productive.Farm- mal numbers, other factors influence the ers' land is improved and pastoralists' adequacy of forage and the condition animals are better-fed.36 of the land. A grazingstrategy first devel- Livestock can also be a keyto provid- oped in France by Andre Voisin is based ing farmers with the financialsecurity on the premise that the timing of grazing that permits them to improve farming and rest intervals is more importantthan practices. According to ILCA's research the size of herds. The Voisinsystem with small-scale farmers in the central seeks to allocate grazingover the course Ethiopian highlands, livestock constitute of the year to match theseasonal farmers'main income-earningasset. changes in the productivity of forage The sale of animal products and trade in plants. This ensures that livestockgraze animals themselves generated 83per- plants at their most nutritious,favors cent of farmers' cash income in the 42 plant regeneration, andprotects the pe- farms studied, while sales ofcrops sup- rennial grasses that bind the topsoil plied only 17 percent. Enhancing and the increase the land's abilityto absorb rain- productivity of livestock raised by farm- fal1.33 ers helps boost the income farmers need As in forestry, farming, andmany to purchase fertilizer and other inputs other development efforts in theThird that raise crop yields. Only whenthese World, strategies to improve the condi- yields rise will farmers have a secure al- tion of common lands will succeedonly

90 cY. (76) State of the World-1986 if the people who use them benefit from whose members are guaranteed exclu- the improvements. In India, the state of sive access to particular pastures. The Gujarat has led in introducing innova- Hema system provides a means for ad- tive programs to restore the forage-pro- judicating disputes that inevitably arise ducing potential of common grazing over access to particular pastures, and it lands. The state's Forest Department maintains the integrity of traditional mi- has encouraged villagers to establish for- gration routes. Its successful modern re- age and fuelwood plantations on these vival is a hopeful sign that other pastoral lands, partly to provide dry-season for- strategies may provide a culturally ac- age for animals owned by landless farm- ceptable foundation for land restora- ers." tion." Gujarat and three other Indian states China has adopted a national grass- have initiated programs to rehabilitate land law establishing state ownership of wastelands and degraded forests by pro- common pastures that are then allocated to individual households on long leases. viding one-hectare parcels to the land- The amount of land provided to each less. Each family receives technical as- household is determined by a formula sistance, tree and fodder seedlings, and that includes the size of the family and a cross-bred cow at the outset of the pro- the number of livestock owneda rough ject. Food-for-work payments free family estimate of the land's carrying capacity. labor to tend the plots. After three years, The recently introduced responsibility the Forest Department takes over man- system is encouraging families to ex- agement of the land planted to trees, pand their herds, however; whether ris- while families retain rights to the forage ing incomes will encourage herders to plots. The sale of dairy products made invest in improvements on their desig- possible by the new fodder supplies nated pastures remains to be seen. raises family incomes." Revegetation of grasslands has only occurred on a small percentage of the country's land. According to the China Sustainable use of the range has Daily,the country's English-language daily newspaper, 1.8 million hectares only proved possible where insight were planted in 1984, and a total of 4.8 into the dynamics of range ecosys- million hectares have received such tems has shaped the economic ac- treatmentjustover 1 percentof tivities they are expected to sup- China's grasslands." port. Range-based livelihoods have been hardly touched by the technological and social changes that have transformed most other spheres of human activity in Among true pastoralists, traditional the past generation. Advances in other grazing practices provide a logical start- fields have done little to boost the effi- ing point for efforts to restore common ciency of economic aztivities on rangeland:. In Syria. revival of the "Hema" lands, whose inhabitants remain ecosystem of cooperative range manage- nomically and politically isolated from ment has enabled revegetation of 7 mil- modern society as a result. The disci- li-Al hectares of rangeland. Herders re- pline of range science has typically em- linquish their autonomy over grazing phasizedthe production of protein dee.sions in order to join cooperatives rather than the management of the vari-

91 Managing Rangelands (77) ous ecosystem components that sustain nearby. Hoperaft reports: "Froma com- that production; the ubiquitousconse- mercial perspective, the selective har- quences include vegetation declines and vesting of game animals has beena nota- disruptions of the hydrological cycle. As ble success. Net returns per acreare ten grazing and herding have beenre- times the average cattle rz nch in the stricted to lands more susceptible to this area, yet the stocking of wildlife is still deterioration, sustainable use of the one sixth that of normal cattle num- range has only proved possible where bers."44 insight into the dynamics of rangeeco- The glimmer of ecological andeco- systems has shaped the economic activi- nomic success on the Athi River in ties they are expected to support. Kenya demonstrates that sounduse of On a semiarid plain north of Nairobi, rangeland, based on the interdependen- enya, Dr. David Hoperaft is roving cies of functioning ecosystems, is possi- that imaginative,ecologically sophis- ble. It exemplifies a pattern ofrange use ticatedmanagement of theAfrican that might be a reasonable standard savanna has environmental and eco against which other grazing practicesare nomic advantages over conventional evaluated. Humanity's origins can be ranching. At Hoperaft's 8,000-hectare traced to bands of hunters thatonce fol- game ranch at Athi River, 15 native wild- lowed t..;14 grazing herds across Africa's animal species coexist with cattle. Since plains. t\ final paradox: The basis for 1981, the herds have been culled for sustainable ?-angeland livelihoods in the both beef and venison. Animals and for- years ahead may lie in learning and age have flourished despite the drought heeding the ecological lessons of the thatcrippledconventionalranches wild herds that remain.

92 5

Moving Beyond Oil Christopher Flavin

The world oil outlook is brighter now nations are in danger of becoming than it has been for some time. In the trapped in an economic underclass. In two years since Worldwatch assessed the addition, several governments that have situation in State of the World-1984, many chosen coal as their chief replacement aspects of the oil picture have continued for oil are now facing public health and to improve. The average price of a barri environmental problems that may make has declined from its peak of over $35 in a coal-based economy unsustainable. early 1981 to just $27 in 1985. Con- Perhapsthe key challenge facing sumption has fallen a remarkable 9 per- world energy planners is that petroleum cent from its high point in 1979. The remains a dwindling resource. While share of the world oil market controlled OPEC members are husbanding their oil by the Organization of Petroleum Ex- reserves in an effort to maintain prices, porting Countries (OPEC) has fallen non-OPEC producers such as the United from about half in 1979 to less than 30 States, the United Kingdom, and the So- percent in 1985.1 viet Union are depleting their reserves at Although this picture is one of nearly a record pace. The Middle East currently uniform progress, below the surface lie contains nearly six tenths of the world's numeroushiddenproblems.The proven oil reserves. When non-OPEC strength of the U.S. dollar throughout petroleum production declines in the much of the world has kept oil prices nineties, Middle Eastern OPEC mem- high in many countries, which has bers will be back in the driver's seat. thwarted Europe's attempted economic The patterns of world energy use, if recovery. Some of the world's poorest they continue on their present course, nations, including most of those in will sow the seeds of another energy cri- Africa, are now virtually priced out of the sis. Reduced oil dependence in recent oil market. Unable to pay for oil or for years was made possible by impressive the investments needed to create non- gains in energy efficiency around the oil-based economies, many Third World world and by the development of alternative energy sources. If oil prices con- An expanded version of this chapter appeared as Wotldwatch Paper 66,World Oil: Coping With the tinue to drop, they will soon begin to Dangers of Success. undermine investments in energy alter- 93 Moving Beyond Oil (79) natives. Declining prices have already Million led many countries to cut successfulen- Barrels ergy programs that would have provided Per Day substitutes for oil in the nineties. The world faces a far differentenergy challenge today than it confronted in the seventies. We essentially know how long oil reserves will last and what policies work. Thanks to new technologies, the opportunity to develop energy alternatives is greater than ever. Blind faith in monolithic solutions such as synthetic fuels or breeder reactors has fortunately faded. mi,e hard part is continuing the move beyond oil at a time when it is easy to be complacent.

1950 1960 0 1970 1980 1990 Figure 5.1. World Oil Production, 1950-85 A REDUCED DEPENDENCEON sumption per unit of gross national OIL product (GNP)a good measure of dependence on petroleumfell 36 percent 1979 probably marked the historic peak in the Western industrial countries and in worldwide oil dependenceover 10 Japan between 1973 and 1984.3 years sooner than petroleum geologists In the rest of the world, oil consump- in the mid-seventies predicted. Oilpro- tion rose 7 percent between 1979 and duction in that year reached almost 66 1984, despite the intervening economic million barrels per day, before plummet- recession. Most developing countries ing 14 percent to less than 57 million started at low levels of usage, have ineffi- barrels a day in 1983. The economicre- cient industrial and transportation sys- covery of 1984 boosted production tems, and have been unable to affor, the slightly, but in 1985 it again fell to less investments needed to develop alt *na- than 57 million barrels daily. (See Figure tive energy sources. Countries with cen- 5-I.) For the first time in postwar his- trally planned economies have also been tory, world oil production fell during a relatively slow to move away from oil, in year of substantial worldwide economic part because their economic systems growth.2 protect industries and consumers from Western Europe, North America, and the full brunt of higher prices. But even Japan together account for two thirds of where petroleum use is rising, it is doing world petroleum use; oil prices of $35 so at a much slower rate than during the per barrel in 1981 (five times the level in seventies. 1973) led to a historic lowering of oil Between 1979 and 1984, oil imports dependence in industrial countries. Be- fell 34 percent in Western Europe, 40 tween 1979 and 1984, consumption de- percent in the United States, and 26 per- clined 18 percent in Western Europe cent in Japan. Together, these account and 16 percent in both North America for over four fifths of the 31 percent de- and Japan. (See Table 5-1.) Oilcon- cline in world petroleum trade during

94 (8o) State of the World-1986 Table 5-1. World Oil Consumption, by Region, 1973, 1979, and 1984

Change Region 1973 1979 1984 (1979-84) (million barrels per day) (percent) North America 18.6 19.8 16.6 -16 Western Europe 15.2 15.0 12.3 -18 Japan 5.5 5.5 4.6 -16 Europe and Soviet Union 8.4 11.1 11.4 + 3

.4)1 Latin America 3.4 4.2 4.5 A- 7 4,41 Other Asia/Oceania 3.9 5.6 5.8 A- 4 Middle East 1.2 1.5 1.9 +27 Africa 1.0 1.4 1.7 +21

Total' 57.1 64.1 58.9 - 8 'Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCE:British Petroleum Company, BP Statutteal Review of IVorld Energy (London: 1985). this period. In 1984, the two largest ex- has improved national trade balances. porters of oil to the United States were The Third World has added only 1.3 its neighbors-Canada and Mexico. The million barrels per day to the world sup- Middle East as a whole supplied just 4 ply of petroleum, and much of that is percent of the oil used in the United used internally. Emerging Third World States, down from 20 percent in 1979. oil producers have so far had little effect Japan, on the other hand, still gets two on international oil m4;kets.5 thirds of its oil from the Middle East.4 The two largest players in the world !'riding to competition in world petro- oil market-the Soviet Union and the leum markets is an increase in non- United States-have so far staved off an- OPEC oil production of more than 5 mil- ticipated declines in production. Record lion barrels per day since 1979. Over levels of enploration and drilling caused half came from two areas-Mexico and U.S. petroleum production to rise by the North Sea. Mexican production has 300,000 barrels per day in the early eight almost doubled since 1979, adding 1.4 ies after falling 1.5 million barrels per million barrels per day to world oil sup- day in the seventies. Soviet production plies. British and Norwegian production rose by 500,000 barrels per day between went from near zero in the early seven- 1979 and 1983, defying Western ana- ties to 3.3 million barrels per day in lysts' predictions of a 15 percent decline. 1984. These countries have become Together, the two superpowers are daily major oil exporters and important coun- producing about 3 million barrels more terweights to OPEC in international than was expected as recently as 1979. markets. As oil consumption declined and pro- Other nations that have significantly ductionin non-OPEC countriesin- boosted production in recent years increased, far-reaching changes occurred clude Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Malaysia, in world oil markets. Once controlled by and Pakistan. The new oil has provided a cartel of multinational corporations welcome domestic energy supplies and and then by OPEC itself, petroleum mar-

95 Moving Beyond Oil (8z) kets today are increasingly competitive, official prices, Nigeria's oil minister Tam shaped more by market forces than by David West said at a mid-1985 OPEC governmental and corporate decisions. meeting, "Every one ofus is gulty of Whereas 95 percent of the oil traded in- one thing or another; there is not one ternationally in the seventies was under co% -r,:ry that is exempt." Today, devel. long-term contract, today 50-60 percent ts in the oil fields of Kuwait or is sold on competitive markets at prevail- Sib.ris soon affect producers in the ing prices.6 North Sea or Texas. This bravenew world of competition generallyappears to be a healthy development, providing Petroleummarketstodayare flexibility and a cushion for future shaped more by market forces than swings in supply and demand.? by governmental and corporate OPEC's share of world oiloutput has decisions. fallen from about half in 1979to less than 30 percent in 1985. The major Mid- dle Eastern producers, with the bulk of world reserves, have cut production the Only a small fraction of OPEC oil is most. (See Table 5-2.) By early 1985, now sold at the cartel's official prices. Kuwait's production had declined 60 Referring to the practice of discounting percent and Libya's was down 50 per- Table 5-2. CU Production and Revenuesin OPEC and Mexico, :973, 1980, and 1984 Daily Oil Production Annual Oil Revenues Country 1973 1980 1984 1973 1980 1984 (million barrels) (billion dollars) Middle East Saudi Arabia 7.6 10.0 4.7 4.3 102.2 44.6 Iran 5.9 1.5 2.2 4.4 13.5 19.1 United Arab Emirates 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.9 19.5 10.8 Iraq 2.0 2.6 1.2 1.8 26.1 9.4 Libya 2.2 1.8 1.1 2.2 22.6 10.9 Kuwait 3.0 1.4 1.0 1.8 17.9 10.3 Other OPEC Members Venezuela 3.5 2.2 1.9 3.0 16.3 13.3 Nigeria 2.0 2.1 1.4 2.1 23.4 10.8 Indonesia 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.2 12.9 9.7 Algeria 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 12.5 5.6 Ecuador, Gabon, and Qatar 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 8.0 5.7

OPEC Total' 30.8 26 9 17.9 22.5 274.9 150.2

Mexico2 0.6 2.2 3.0 n.a. n.a. 'Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.2Mexico is an ex-officio member. SOURCES: Petroleum Intelhgenct Weekly,yariot.s issue!; British Petroleum Company.BP Statistical Review of IS Energy(London: 1985).

96 (82) State of the World-1986 cent. The Iran Iraq war has halved oil from $113 billion in 1981 to a projected production in those two countries. Saudi $31 billion in 1985. The nation's for- Arabia remains the dominant "swing eign-exchange holdings dropped from producer,"however,since ithas $150 billion to less than $100 billion in propped up petroleum prices by remov- 1985, and public spending was cut 23 ing as much as 7 million barrels a day percent to stem the hemorrhage of capi- fromtheworldoilmarket.Saudi ta1.18 Arabia's daily production fell from 10 The biggest winner from the shift in million barrels in 1980 to 4.7 million oil markets is the United States. The U.S. barrels in 1984, and to just 2.5 million oil import bill fell from $61 billion in barrels in mid-1985--the k .est level in 1981 to an estimated $32 billion in 1985. 18 years. By 1985, tension between Petroleum accounted for less than 15 OPEC members had reached record lev- percent of American imports in 1985, els, and Saudi Arabia appeared to be down from 34 percent in 1980. Falling moving toward increased production prices have helped cut. U.S. inflation to a and the competitive pricing of its oil. If 4 percent annual rate, its lowest level in other members respond by raising pro- more than a decade. Economists believe duction and lowering prices, the cart( I that lower oil prices contributed to the may well dissolve entirely.8 record-breaking economic recovery that OPEC's efforts to maintain a floor on culminated in a GNP growth rate of 6.8 oil prices have already cost it dearly. percent in 1984. Lower oil prices have From a peak of $275 billion in 1980, caused problems for U.S. oil companies OPEC petroleum revenues fell to about however. During the early eighties, bil- $150 billion in 1984, and to even less in lions of dollars were invested in petro- 1985. A study by the Oxford Institute for leum exploration and development on Energy Studies in Great Britain shows the assumption that oil prices would that, due to a decline in demand and continue upward. Since then. many price, Middle Eastern producers lost small companies have retrenched or ac- close to $200 billion in oil revenues be- tually gone out of business, threatening tween 1982 and 1984. This is a serious some banks with large oil portfolios.0 economic crisis for countries that get Other economies have not benefited 95-100 percent of their foreign ex- as much as the United States from the change from these revenues and that stimulative effect of falling prices. This is have based government spending on because most oil is traded internation- overly optimistic projections of such ally in U.S. dollars, and the value of the funds.8 dollar in relation to most other curren- Many oil exporterssuch as Mexico, cies rose steadily in the early eighties. an ex-officio OPEC member with a $96- While the price of petroleum has de- billion foreign debtface a rising tide of clined 23 percent in U.S. dollars since economictroubles as pricesfall. 1981, its cost in Japan dropped just 11 Venezuela cut a planned $2.4-billion percent. In West Germany, the real cost public works program by 75 percent; of oil has risen 7 percent, in India it has Nigeria expelled 2 million guest work- gone up 11 percent, and in France it has ers. Even wealthy Persian Gulf oil pro- risen 38 percent." ducers have suffered economic prob- The average price of petroleum pro- lems, including, in the case of Kuwait, a ducts in Europe has continued to rise 50 percent decline in land prices and a since 1981. These high prices have hin- 30 percent fall in office construction. dered economic recovery and made it Saudi Arabia's oil revenues have fallen more difficult to bring down inflation. 9 7 Moving Beyond Oil (83) Since OPEC members import large tected Eastern Europe from the full quantities of goods and services from brunt of increases in the early eighties, Europe, they have benefited from the but prices are now equal to or slightly strong dollar, which boosts the real above the world market level. The bur- value of their oil sales. Consistently high den spending about $20 billion a year oil prices also account for the continued on Soviet oil is a major strain on the weakness of petroleummarketsin struggling economies ofEastern Europe. The World Bank estimates that Europe." oil imports in Western Europe would be 1.7 million barrels per day higher if exchange rates had remained at the 1979 Developing countries with struggling economies have in effect been After falling 20 percent between 1979 and 1983, European oil consumption forced out of the world oil market. leveled off in 1984 and declined again in 1985. The current price of oil serves as ample incentive for investments in im- Even more than Europe, Third World proved efficiency and, where possible, countries have failed to leap the benefits conversion to other sources of energy. of lower oil prices. Accumulating debts The high value of the dollar also adds and deliberate government policies have uncertainty to European energy fore- accelerated the decline of Third World casts, which now generally include ca- currencies relative to the dollar. Steady veats about future exchange rates. A erosion in the markets for commodities sudden decline in the value of the dollar such as copper and sugar are an addi- would tend to slow Europe's move away tional burden, since export of these from imported oil. goods often finances oil imports. Over- The Soviet Union, with a total output all, petroleum imports absorb a large of 12.5 million barrels per day (three share of the foreign exchange available quarters as much as recent OPEC pro- to most developing countriesas high duction), is the world's largest oil pro- as 80 percent in some =ions. ducer and a major player in global en- Third World nations that have exten- ergy markets. Rising petroleum prices in sive indigenous energy sources or that the seventies boosted the Soviet econ- have rapidly industrializing economies omy significantly, providing 60-75 per- have fared the best. Hydropower, alco- cent of its Western "hard currency" hol fuels, and oil exploration programs earnings. The Soviet Union exports 1.5 have helped lower Brazil's still-stagger- million barrels of oil to the West each ing oil import bill, and South Korea's day, at competitive international prices, expanding supplies of coal and nuclear so the Soviet economy has been hit hard power have done the same. But these by recent declines in the world price of investments have themselves created this resource." large debt. (In Brazil, one fifth of the Eastern Europe, with the exception of country's foreign debt can be attributed Romania, has little domestic oil and de- to power plant construction.) The World pends on the Soviet Union for 90 per- Bank projects that Third World energy cent of its suppliesclose to 2 million investments will absorb about 4 percent barrels per day. Soviet oil sales to its East of GNP in the years ahead and will act as European allies are based on a pricing a constraint on other industrial invest- formula tied to a five-year sliding aver- ments." age of world prices. This system pro- Developing countries with struggling

98 (84) State of the World -1986 economies have in effect been forced out potential to improve further the energy of the world oil market. According to the efficiency of the world's economies (see World Bank, Africa (with the exception State of the World - 1985). of Nigeria) has barely enough petroleum The United States, starting with one to cover es! ts. ntial needs. Some govern- of the world's most energy-intensive ments must take extraordinary measures economies, has achieved one of the most to pay for oil imports. Cuba reportedly dramatic turnarounds. Between 1973 sells sugar to the Soviet Union at 10 and 1984, U.S. energy efficiency rose 23 times the world price and uses the pro- percent, allowing national energy use to ceeds to buy Soviet petroleum, part of average about the 1973 level despite which it resells on the world market to substantial economic growth. Without earn hard currency.'? this increased efficiency, the nation's use In some parts of the Third World, of energy in 1984 would have been transportation systems, factories. and higher by the equivalent of 10 million power plants are occasionally shut down barrels of oil per dayabout double the when oil supplies run out. Many nations oil imports that year. Annual U.S. energy have begun to cut back on their tradi- expenditures would have been at least tionally heavy subsidies foi kerosene and $100 billion higher. Coal, by compari- diesel fuel, often at the insistence of the son, has provided the equivalent of an International Monetary Fund. The price additional 2 million barrels of oil per of petroleum fuels has risen three- to day, and nuclear power has accounted fourfold in many developing countries for just over 1 million barrels a day.2° since 1981. Rising kerosene prices have Western Europe, starting with sub- led to riots in some cases. Nonetheless, stantially more efficient economies, real- the World Bank projects that the use of ized a 16 percent decline in its energy petroieum in Third World countries w;11 intensity between 1973 and 1984. Japan rise 50 percent between 1980 and 1995, led the world with a remarkable 29 per- making these nations centralin the cent decline in its energy/GNP ratio, re- world oil outlook." flecting concerted efforts by industry and government to reduce oil dependence. In Greece and Australia, on the other hand, energy intensity actually rose during the past decade. Data com- piledbytheInternationalEnergy AN EFFICIENCY SUCCESS Agency show GNP in the Organisation STORY for Economic Co-operation and Devel- opment (OECD) countries rising 24 per Energy efficiency has been far and away cent between 1973 and 1984, while total the largest contributor to the improved energy use was unchanged. This indi- world oil situation during the past dec- cates a 19 percent drop in the ener- ade. Indeed, statistics show that greater gy/GNP ratio. (See Table 5-3.) efficiency accounts for over half the 36 Efficiency improvements stem in part percent decline in the energy/GNP ratio from simple housekeeping measures of industrialcountries since1973." (turning down thermostats and driving These improvements over the last 12 slower), in part from structural changes years have outstripped even the more such as the development of less-energy- optimistic forecasts and continue to ex- intensive service economies or com- ceed annually revised official projec- munities where cars are pot needed as tions. Yet there remains an enormous often, and in part from techi.ological im- 99 Moving Beyond Oil (85) Table 5-3. Energy Intensity of Economic Activity in Selected Countries, 1973, 1979, and 1984, With Projections to 2000'

Country Change. or Region 1973 1979 1984 2000 1973-84 (metric tons of oil equivalent per $1,000 of gross domestic product) (pert ent) Australia 0.68 0.73 0.70 0.63 + 3 Canada 1.14 1.16 1.09 1.02 - 4 West Germany 0.64 0.59 0.52 0.34 -19 Greece 0.59 0.63 0.64 0.77 + 8 Italy 0.69 0.64 0.57 0.53 -17

Japan 0.70 0.61 0.50 0.38 -29 Sweden 0.69 0.67 0.64 0.48 - 7 Turxey 0.84 0.76 0.76 0.80 -10 United Kingdom 0.93 0.85 0.73 0.66 -22 United States 1.14 1.05 0.90 0.72 -21 All OECD Countries 0.90 0.84 0.73 0.59 -19 'Figures are standardized to show total pnmary energy use per $1.000 of gross domestic productat 1975 prices and exchange rates. souRce International Energy Agency, Energy Polices and Programmes of lEA Countries, 1983 Review Glans. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1985). provements such as more efficiently de- trends, but precise percentages cannot signed homes, automobiles, and appli- be assigned.22 ances. The first wave of increased energy Many energy-efficienttechnologies efficiency in the seventies was dominated took years to develop and are just now by housekeeping measures, but these coming on the market. Economic recov- became less important once the easy ery has caused a surge in the purchase of steps had been taken and energy price automobiles, appliances, and industrial increases slowed.21 ec.iipment. As the older equipment is Structural and technological energy replaced, energy efficiency generally im- efficiency improvements are accelerat- proves. Although lower energy prices ing, however. The movement away from cause consumers to be less discriminat- energy-intensive, heavy-industry-domin- ing when they shop for cars or appli- ated economic systemsisdriven by ances,eventheless-energy-efficient major social and economic forces as well equipment being sold today is usually a as by high energy costs and so has not big improvement over the equipment been greatly affected by the recent de- being replaced. And efficiency improve- cline in oil prices. In practice, the struc- mentsstilloffer large economic re- tural economic changes that lower oil ward5.23 Electricity prices continue to use are hard to distinguish from the rise in most countries (see Chapter 6), technological changes that occur purely natural gas prices have remained steady in response to energy prices. Most ana- or risen slightly, and, except in the lysts believe that the latter are more im- United States, the real price of oil has portantin explaining recent energy barely declined.

100 (86) State of the World -1986 Anticipating the future pace of energy iota! housing stock and automobile efficiency improvements is difficult. On fleet.25 the one hand, some of the easiest Automobiles and other forms of trans- changes have already occurred. The portation are particularly critical to the growth of the service sector is slowing, world energy future since they are gen- millions of houses have already been erally run on liquid fuels derived from weatherized, and cars are unlikely to get oil. By the year 2000, transportation will much smaller. On the other hand, a pro- claim a larger share of petroleumup to fusion of new, more energy-efficient 51 percent in industrial countries, and technologies are just becoming avail- perhaps almost as high in the Third able.New automotivetechnologies World, where use of energy by this sec- could . aise new-car fuel economy from tor is growing fastest. Since affordable the current average of 25-30 miles per alternatives to petroleum for transporta- gallon to over 50. Pulse combustion gas tion have yet to be found except in a few furnaces now use 28 percent less fuel isolated countries (such as Brazil, where than traditional furnaces. The most ad- alcohol fuel is increasingly important), vanced steel plants using virgin ore are the energy efficiency of automobiles, over 25 percent more efficient than the trucks, and planes is a key factor in the world's average steel plant. And new world energy future.26 "minimills" that use recycled steel are In developing a global end-use-ori- even more efficient.24 ented energy strategy, the Princeton Although energy-efficient technolo- Center for Energy and Environmental giescontinueto emerge from the Studies concluded that if available re- laboratories, their future popularity resources were used as efficiently as is now mains one of the largest uncertainties in possible, the world could in the year the global energy future. Gains have 2020 support a population of 7 billion been slowed by a shortage of good infor- people with a much higher standard of mation and investment capital, particu- living on about the current energy bud- larly for consumers, who are in the best get.27 Such a scenario is only possible if position to make many of the improve- major energy efficiency improvements ments. Efficiency ranks higher on na- are made in developing as well as in in- tional energy planning agendas than it dustrial countries. Even with these im- once did, but most policymaket sstill provements, the Third World would use give lower priority (and far lower invest- two thirds of the world's energy, up from ments) to efficiency than to oil explora- one third in 1985. tion or power plant construction. Developing countries face enormous Even without morc government atten- obstacles in attempting to improve en- tion and reform of policies that discour- ergy efficiency. Third World factories age greater energy efficiency, substantial often consume two to five times as much gains are likely during the next decade. fuel for a given process due to decades- But new efforts will be needed to extend old industrial equipment and a frequent these impro,Tments beyond the early shortage of trained personnel to per- nineties, an i they will have to begin form simple maintenance and retrofits. soon. The efficiency of new homes and Because factories there are often re- automobiles has leveled off since the quired to produce a fixed quota of goods earlyeightiesin Europe and North at a fixed price, there is little incentive to America, which could portend a slow- lower energy costs. Third World build- down in =pro% ing the efficienc), of the ings and transportation systems are also

101 Moving Beyond Oil (87) inecr :ient. Success in improving Third portant energy source. Its 27 percent World energy efficiencyone of the share of the global energy budget is up world's most difficult and important from 25 percent in 1978. The coal indus- challengeswill greatly influence both try has made impressive r.rides during the development process and the future this period, but there are clouds on of the world oil market. coal's horizon. Markets are now glutted in Europe and North America, and the use of coal in industry and for electricity generation appea..s likely to stagnate in the years ahead. Not only is electricity THE CHANGING MIX use growing much more slowly than in the past, but emerging small-scale gen- Although improved energy efficiency ac- erating technologies are beginning to counts for over half the drop in world oil compete with large coal-fired power consumption since 1973, a range of plants. Coal use is growing rapidly in other energy sources have helped re- parts of the Third World, however, par- duce oil dependence, chief among them ticularly in China, where consumption coal, natural gas, renewable sources of rase 50 percent in the past decade.28 energy, and nuclear power. Missing The largest cloud hanging over coal is from this list are the two major sources environmental. Acid rain, caused at least that government planners once counted in part by the sulfur dioxide and nitro- on to provide energy in the future: syn- gen oxides emitted by power plants, is thetic fuels and nuclear breeder reac- believed to be damaging lakes, streams, tors. Neither shows any sign of being a and forests in many parts of the world. major commercial energy source in the Eastern Europe in particular has been foreseeablefuture.Meanwhile,oil's forced for economic reasons to rely on share of world energy use has fallen high-sulfur coal rather than oil, and now from 41 to 35 percent, and continues to faces a potential ecological catastrophe; decline. (See Table 5-4.) 86 percent of East Germany's forest3 Coal is the world's second most im- show air pollution damage. Growing evi- Table 5-4. World Energy Use by Source, 1973, 1978, and 1984

1973 1978 1984 Source Amount Share Amount Share knot nt Share (mbc11) (percent) (mbcII) (percent) (mbdi) (percent) Oil 56.0 41 61.6 41 57.1 35 Natural Gas 21.3 16 24.1 16 28.3 17 Coal 33.4 25 37.3 25 43 8 27 Renewables 23.5 17 25.8 17 28 7 18 Nuclear 1.0 1 3.0 2 5.7 3

Totals 135.2 100 151.8 100 163.6 100 iln terms of million barrels per day of oil equisalent 2Pert.entage totals do not add to 100 doe to rounding. SOURCEBritish Petroleum Company,BP Statistical Review of World Energy(London. 1985), Keith Openshaw, "WoodfuelA Time for Reassessment,"Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 3,1978, pp 35-51.

102 (88) State of the World-1986 dente of acid rain damage, combined lent of about 9 million barrels of oil, and with concern over future regulations and woodfuel and various waste materials the cost of pollution control technolo- provide about 20 million. Renewable en- gies, has contributed to a slowdown in ergy consists of myriad different re- the construction of coal plants. And sources and technologies and has en- many researchers are concerned that joyed fairly steady growth during the massive amounts carboi. dioxide, past decade. Renewable sources provide released when coal is burned, may even- 18 percent of the world's energy, and the tually alter the world's climate.29 way they are managed is one of the most Natural gas has also contributed to de- important links in the world's energy fu- clines in world oil consumption--the ture.32 equivalent of some 28 million barrels of Fuelwood is still the predominant en- oil each day. Outside the United States, ergy source in much of the Third World, natural gas consumption rose 80 percent and it has made a notable comeback in during the past decade, led by the Soviet many industrial countries since the early Union, which has 43 percent of the seventies, particularly as a household world's gas reserves. Natural gas re- and industrial heating source. Hydro- serves are now about equal to oil re- power is growing rapidly as well, particu- serves worldwide, but are being con- larlyin developing countries, where sumed only half as fast. World Bank scores of large projects have been comp- energy planners believe that in much of leted in the past decade. So far, other the Third World natural gas will in the sources of renewable energy (such as long run be a more important energy wind, solar, geothermal, and advanced source than oil. Increased Third World bio-energy systems) have contributed exploration, advanced ,exploration and only slightly tc the global energy bud- extractiontechnologies,andmore - get, but their share is now growing ra- efficient use are likely to give natural gas pidly. Several of these new energy tech- a larger role in the world energy system nologies are moving quickly toward in the years ahead." commercial development, despite the Nuclear power genera:on has grown recent weakness in oil prices.?3 rapidly during the last 10 years, but not nearly so rapidly as rm- st government energy planners had predicted. In 1985 nuclear power supplied little more than 3 percent of the world's energy, and its THE LIMITS TO WORLD OIL contribution is unlikely to exceed 6-3 percent in the year 2000. Only in Europe Amid these substantial shifts in world and parts of the Far East has nuclear energy trends in recent years, one has power contributed significantly to de- remained consistent: World oil reserves clining oil dependence. Slowing the de- are being depleted. This simple fact has elopmenc oi this energy source are con- been effectively obscured by euphoria tinuingtechnical difficulties,cost over rising petroleum production out- overruns, and political opposition in side of OPEC. These increases have many countries.31 come largely a the cost of accelerated Renewable energy sources now supply depletion of some of the world's most the world with the equivalent of 29 mil- limited and strategically important oil lion barrels of oil each day, about five reserves, and they cannot continue much times the nuclear contribution. Of this longer. total, hydropower provides the equiva- The standard but slightly misleading

103 Moving Beyond Oil (89) measure of world oil resources is proven extracted each year. At the 1985 rate of reserves. Included in this category is pe- consumption, the ultimate depletion of troleum found in known reservoirs but global oil resources is between 50 and 88 not yet produced. The oil discovered years away. Little of the world's petro- each year is added to proven reserves, leum is likely to remain by the bicenten- while the oil "produced" is subtracted. nial of the world's first oil well in the year Global proven reserves increased ra- 2059." pidly throughout the postwar period More thanthree quarters of the rising from 76 billion barrels in 1950 to world's sedimentary areas have been ex- 664 billion barrels in 1973. But since the plored, and results confirm a key hy- mid-seventies these reserves have in- pothesis on which oil resource estimates creased only S percent, even though are based: Almost 90 percent of all the higher oil prices have encouraged explo- oil is found in just 25 of the world's 600 ration and annual extraction of petro- identified sedimentary "provinces" or leum has declined.34 regions. Given their geology, such prov- Additions to world oil reserves after inces are easy to target as potential pro- mid-century came principally from the ducers, and within them petroleum is Middle East, where reservoirs vastly concentrated in large fieldsthat are larger than those found elsewhere were found quickly. Over two thirds of the oil discovered. Between 1970 and 1977, discovered so far is in just 7 "giant prov- global reserve figures were sustained by more modest discoveries in the Middle inces." And almost half is in the world's East and by other discoveries in Alask?, only "mega-province"located in the the North Sea, and Mexico. But since the Middle East. Once the large early finds lateseventies,annualadditionsto are made, discoveries tend to drop off proven reserves have sometimes not quickly. Richard Nehring of the Rand even been sufficient to replace the oil Corporation believes that only about 10 extracted. Recent increments have re- percent of the world's petroleum lies in sulted mainly from continued explora- small or very small fields.36 tion of already established reservoirs in major ^"l- producing regions. Estimating the ultimate size of global Little of the world's petroleum is oil resources is obviously far more diffi- likely to remain by the bicentennial cult than determining proven reserves. of the world's first oil well in the However, the ability to predict oil avail- year 2059. ability has improved enormously in the past few decades, dire to advances in petroleum geology as well as extensive drilling throughout the world. A range The lArgest oil d:scoveries of the sev- or 1,600 billion to 2,400 billion barrels entiesin Alaska, the North Sea, and encompasses all but the most extreme Mexicohave added significantly to the oil resource estimates of the mid-eight- viorld's inventory of proven reserves. By ies. Of this total, 554 billion barrels historical standards, however, these are have already been used up; 700 billion modest in size and so have added little to barrels of additional proven reserves estimates of ultimately recoverable re- have been disco, ered. This leaves a serves. Even before this oil was discov- range of between 350 billion and 1,150 ered, analysts assumed that such quanti- billion barrels of oil remaining to be ties would be found, although they were found. About 21 billion birrels are being not sure exactly where.

104 (90) State of the World-1986

Some analysts justify higher estimates and the lifting of price controls causeda of ultimate resources by noting that surge in U.S. petroleum exploration and higher prices will encouragegreater ex- secondary recovery, the decline inpro- ploration and more thoroughrecovery duction was halted temporarily. How- of known deposits. But the estimates just ever, the reserve /production ratio, a key cited-1,600 billion to 2,400 billion bar- measure of oil resources, has continued relsinclude assumptions that prices to fall, and in 1985 U.S. proven reserves will rise and technologies will improve. reached their lowest level since 1951. Enhanced oilrecovery using water, John Lichtblau of the Petroleum Indus- steam, and gas injection has begun in try Research Foundation writes, "In some areas, stimulated by the high price effect,most of theseactivities[ac- of oil in the early eighties. Even the celerated drilling and enhancedrecov- lower resource estimates assume that ery] have been a form of current produc- enhanced recovery will become standard tion maximization by borrowing from practice in the decades ahead. the future."39 A 1983 study by scientists at the U.S. In recent years, the U.S. oil industry Geological Survey (USGS) reaches simi- has increasingly turned to offshore oil, lar conclusions, including a mid-range which was given a big boost by the Rea- estimatt of ultimate reserves of just gan administration's program of ac- ,700 billion barrels. The USGS scien- celerated leasing of offshore oiltracts. tists note that "demonstratedreserves of Unsuccessful exploratory drilling, how. crude oil navf declinedover the past 10 ever, has already dashed some of the years con6stent with discoveries lagging more grandiose hopes; in early 1985 the production over the same period ... U.S. Geological Survey reduced its esti- Rates of discovery have continued to de- mate of undiscovered offshore oil by 55 cline over the past 20 yearseven though percent. This lowered estimated undis- exploration activity has increased inre- covered U.S. oil resources by 18percent cent years. Prudence dictates, therefore, or five years of production at current that the low side of the assessment of rates. Notably, a six-year, $3-billion ex- undiscovered resources be responsibly ploration of the Atlantic continental considered."37 shelf yielded mainly dry wells andno ex- As important as the ultimate size of ploitable oil. USGS estimates for thatre- world resources is their location. Here, gion have been lowered 87percent. In too, the concentration in large provinces Alaska, the $1.5-billion Mukluk offshore is key. About 56 perct-it of the world's project turned out to be themost expen- proven oil reserves and 23 percent of sive dry hole in history. Production from estimated undiscovered reservesare in Alaska's North Slope fields, whichonce the Middlr East. Overall, 95 pei cent of offset declines in the lower 48state;, has proven reserves are in just 20 countries. leveled off at 1.7 million barrelsper day. Oil remains one of the world'smost un- State ufficials project that North Slope equally distributed resou-ces.38 oi, production willfall beginning in The United States is the world'st 1990.4c) ond largest petroleum producer and the The mid-eighties has already wit- most intensively explored country, with nessed a substantial decline in U.S. oil 80 percent of the world's oil wells. Oil exploration and developmetit. In the production in the continental United face of falling prices,many American States peaked in 1970 at over 9 million companies are finding oil on Wall Street barrels per day and fell to 7 million bar- (throughmergersandacquisitions) rels per day in 1980. When higher prices rather than in the fields. Substantial fur-

105 Moving Beyow: Oil (9') Cher price declines could have an even without further price decreases, North greater impact. An executive at a major Sea oil production is projected to peak U.S. oil company stated in 1985 that if before 1990 arid decline steadily during oil prices fall to $20 per barrel, "we the nineties. Some North Sea fields have would finish up what we are doing in exploration and development costs as Alaska and do no more." A precipitous high as $20 per barrel, among the high- decline in U.S. oil .ploduction is now a est in the world. Industry officials believe real possibility in the years ahead.41 that an additional $2 decline in the world The world's largest oil producerthe price of oil could make a number of Soviet Unionis also one of the largest North Sea projects uneconomical.44 question marks. The oil industry is a Mexico has also added to world oil high priority of the Soviet government, supplies. Production grew steadily in the and, as in the West, investments in pe- late seventies, reached 3 million barrels troleum rose during the early eighties. per day in 1982, and has stayed at about Oil drilling increased from 50 million that level due to weak demand and a feet of wells in 1979 to 90 million feet in government decision to produce at less 1984, and production rose by more than than capacity. Mexico soil resources a half million barrels per day. Reserve were developed relatively recently, and additions have come relatively slowly in its proven reserves of 48 billion barrels recent years, however and in 1984 and are 40 percent higher than those of the 1985 Soviet oil production declined for United States. Worldwide, only Saudi the first time since World War 11.42 Arabia, Kuwait, and the Soviet Union The Soviet Union is heavily depen- have more oil than Mexico dces. Some dent on relatively old and declining oil analysts believe that Mexican oil produc- fields and is plagued by difficulties in tion will rise from the current 3 million opening new production frontiers. The barrels per day to 4 million barrels be- key producing area of Tyumen in West fore production peaks in the raid-nine- S.beria, which provides 63 percent of ties. However, rapid growth in Mexico's Soviet oil, has fallen below official tar- internal oil requirements will probably gets for the past three years, and many keep the country from ever exporting fields are producing as much water as much more than the curt ent 1.5 inillinn petroleum. Since the Soviet Union now barrels per day. Unless the Mexican gov- produces more than one fifth of the ernment takes action to restrict oil use, world's total, any significant decline in the coLntry could easily become a net Soviet production will have an impact on importer by the year 2000.45 oil markets worldwide.43 China is another key country in the North Sea oil is one of the largest and world oil equation. Production there most welcome additions to world sup- grew significantly during the fifties and plies in recent years. Oil production by sixties, but then leveled off at about 2 the major North Sea producers, Norway million barrels per day in the late seven- and the United Kingdom, reached 3.3 ties. Major efforts were then laun '.ied to million barrels per day in 1984, greatly, open new oil fields, particularly oitshoie easing Europe's dependence on im- in the South China Sea and the Bohai ported petroleum. Exploration and de- Gulf. No sizable reserves have been velopment efforts are continuing in the found so far, but many promising areas North Sea, but reserve additions have remain to be frilled and the government been modest in recent years as compa- has redoubled its ^fforts. Oil is impor- nies turn to fields that are much smaller tant to China's ambitious moderdzation than those developedinitially.Even program, and major finds will be neces-

1 0 6 (92) Stare of the World-198o sary simply to maintain the current pro- Other countries with smaller discoveries duction level. China's remaining petro- include Angola, Argentina, Australia, leum reserves of 19 billion barrels equal Cameroon, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Pa- only 19 barrels per person. At the U.S. kistan, Peru, Syria, and Zaire. Thanks to rate of per capitaoilconsumption, exploration efforts stimulated by the oil China's oil reserves would be gone in 10 price increases of the seventies, these months. Incredibly, in order to earnpre- countries have the potential toone day ciousforeignexchangeChinahas become self-sufficient in oil.'" managed to remain an exporter of about Together, these discoveries have in- 1 million barrels of oil per day. This creased global oil reserves less than 1 leaves just one third of a barrel of oil per percent, however, and at their peak they capita to be used each year domesti- will provide only an additional 1-2 mil- cally.46 lion barrels per day of oil. John Licht- Petroleum exploration was started or blau concludes: "Production increases stepped up in at least 30 additional can of course be expected from a num- countries during the past five years. ber Gf other non-OPEC countries, such Many of these efforts involve Third as Egypt, Brazil, Colombia, India, and World governments, multinationalcor- West African countries. But there is porations, and financial assistance from nothing in sight which would compare Western banks or multilateral organiza- even remotely with the developments of tions such as the World Bank. The big- the 1970's."48 Most developing coun- gest success stories are in Colombia, tries remain desperately short of on. where oil production is expected to As noted earlier, rising production of reach 400.000 barrels per day by 1987, non-OPEC oil has added 5 million bar- and Brazil, which has similar potential. rels per day to world supplies. Despite Table 5-5. Oil Production, Reserves, and Reserves / ProductionRatios, Major Oil-Producing Nations, 1984

Annual Countr. Production Reserves Reserves/Production (billion barrels) ;ratio) Kusalt 0.36 90 0 250 Iraq 44.5 104 Saudi Arabia 1.71 169.0 99 United Arab Emirates 0.44 31.9 73 Iran 0 80 4.3.5 61 Libya 0.40 21.1 52

Mexico 1.10 48 6 45 Venezuela 0.68 25.8 38 Nigeria 0.51 16 7 33 United Kingdom 0.94 13 6 14 Soviet Umor 4.53 63 0 14 United States 3.79 34.5 9

World Total 21.10 707 2 34 sot itttBritish Petroleum Company,BP Stalulual Review of World Entrp(London 1985).

-10 7 Moving Beyond Oil (93) this recent boost, the long-term outlook mid-nineties. During the next 10 years, remains dominated by Middle Eastern OPEC may well become a smaller, more members of OPEC, which have 56 per- geographically concentrated organiza- cent of the world's known petroleum re tionand a more powerful one. serves. In fact, recent shifts in world oil Non - Middle Eastern oil production is markets have some rather disturbing approaching its peak. By 1990, at the lat- long-term implications: The rate of de- est,declining oil production inthe pletion of the world's most abundant oil United States, the Soviet Union, and the resources has slowed, while depletion of United Kingdom will greatly outweigh some of he scarcest and most strategi- increases in such countries as Brazil, Co- cally impor .ant reserves has accelerated. lombia, and Mexico." These trends At the 1984 extraction rate, U.S. proven should raise warning flags for anyone reserves will last only about nine years. tempted to celebrate the demise of the (See 'able 5-5.) Persian Gulf oil producers. Recent independence from Middle Eastern petroleum provides a false sense of security Recent independence from Middle since it has occurred largely at the ex- Eastern petroleum has occurred pense of greater long-term dependence. The lower the current Middle Eastern largely at the expense of greater share of the market, the greater its share long-term dependence. at the end of the century, when many countries will be running out of oil. The danger is that the Persian Gulf may again Saudi Arabia's oil reserves, on the hold all the cards just when worid oil other hand, would last almost 100 years resources are more limited than at any at the 1984 rate of extraction. Many Mid- time in recent history. dle Eastern oil fields have production costs of less than S2 per barrel, whereas some Alaskan and North Sea oil field. yield oil at a cost of $20 per barrel. Charles Ebinger, an energy analyst at LESSONS OF THE PAST Georgetown University'sCenterfor DECADE Strategic and International Studies, believes that as non-OPEC oil production It is time to recognize that the oil glut is declines, C PEC's share of the world oil real and likely t,_ be protracted, although market will reach 55 percent in the nine- by no means permanent. Fundamental ties, abut, e the record levels reached in changes mean that declining prices and the late seventies." falling demand for OPEC oil may be key SeN eral OPEC members with limited features of the world energy scene for reserves are now producing at near max- se, eral years. Energy problems have not ..num capacity in order to sustain their disappeared, but they have shifted, and economies, while Persian Gulf countries new strategies are needed. The chal- with the largest reserves are restricting lenge is to sustain the positive momen- production in order to support OPEC tum away from oil that has developed in prices. During the nineties, oil produc- recent years and, amid conditions that tion is almost certain to decline in such make complacency all too easy, to pre- OPEC nationsasAlgeria,Ecuador, pare for a time when oil will be far more Gabon, Indonesia, and Nigeria. None is expensive. likely to remain an oil exporter past the Downward pressure on petroleum

108 (94) State of the World-1986

prices is virtually inevitable during the share of the world's oil, and theircon- next several years, and a fall in prices to sumption is bound to increase in the under $20 per barrel is a real possibility. years ahead.52 Rapid growth in oil use The momentum behind greater energy threatens to resume in the early nineties, efficiency and the de-,,elopment of other when the physical limits of non-Middle energy sources will undermine efforts to Eastern oil production will have been stop the erosion of prices. Although reached, causing production to decline lower oil prices benefit the worldecon- steadily. omy in he short run, they also threaten The events of 1985 demonstrate the to establish a "crisis and glut" cycle that dangers of even modest reliance on Mid- makes it difficult for companies, govern- dle Eastern oil. Hijackings, terrorism, ments, and individual consumers to and the increasingly successful efforts of make sound long-term decisions about Iraq and Iran to knock out each other's energy investments. petroleum facilities make the Middle Without reinvigorated efforts, recent East an unreliable oil supplier. The sev- improvements in the global energy situ- enties showed the impossibility of mdt- ation will run out of steam by the early ing accurate predictions aboutan uil nineties. By then the world economy will market heavily affected by wars and in- be substantially more energy-efficient ternational politicsa lesson thatis than it is today. O,i will 'nave been largely likely to be even more true in the late eliminated as a fuel for power plants and eighties and the nineties. When oil price many industries. Natural gas will play a rises do arrive, they may well be sudden much more central role in the world and precipltous. Policymakers should economy, and the use of coal, renew? hie recognizethe .uncertaintyof future energy sources, and nuclear power will trends and the need to reduce the risk of also have expanded. But even with these future crises. accomplishments, declining domestic The policy guidelines for the next 10 production could cause U.S. oil imports years must start with the past decade's to double, reaching 7-9 million barrels most important lesson: L iven the right per day in the early nineties. Similar incentives, energy markets work. Crash problems face Western Europe arid the government programs to develop major Soviet Union." The world faces a tight- new energy sources have generally ening race between successful but vul- failed, and similar efforts to deal with nerable efforts to develop energy alter- future crises show no signs of being any natives and the steady depletion of more successful. But smaller efforts, world petroleum resources. taken by companies and individuals in Oil is still likely to provide about 30 response to higher prices, have an excel- percent of the world's energy in the lent record. nineties, and its use will be increasingly The transition from an oil market concentrated in transportation and pe- dominated by the pricing decisions ofa trochemicals, two areas where substitu- fewmultinationalcorporationsand tion by °the1 energy sources has so far OPEC members to one driven by the shown little success. Growth in petro- competitive interplay of thousands of leum use during the nineties is likely to buyers and sellers has generally been be propelled largely by increasing Third positive. Price fluctuations have been World consumption, particularly in the less severe, and the economic signals for rapidly expanding economies of Asia consumers have been more constant. and Latin America. Developingcoun- Analysts believe that more competitive tries still use a disproportionately small oil markets are likely to ease the effect of 10 Moving Beyond Oil (95) future disruptions, though it is uncertain environmental grounds. In Europe, the whether competition will continue to be largest subsidies went to nuclear con- effective as Middle Eastern oil-produc- struction programs financeddirectly ing countries regain a greater share of throughgovernmenttreasuriesor the market in the nineties." through special financial concessions. The easing of energy market restric- The United States provided about $46 tions has helped propel the recent en- billion in energy subsidies in1984, ergy advances of most industrial coun- mainly directed to oil and gas and to tries. It is now clear that p:-ice controls power plant construction.55 Tax loop- on natural gas, both in Europe and holes for the U.S. oil industry, aptly North America, caused artificial short- dubbed the "drain America first" policy, ages during the seventies. At the same have depleted U.S. oil reserves at a far time, large government subsidies pro- faster pace than in other countries. The duced many uneconomical and unneces- Netherlands made the opposite error, sary power plants. Decontrol of oil and artificially pricing natural gas on a par natural gas prices in the United States with imported oil, which discouraged in- helped lead to greater production and dustries from using gas and caused more efficientuse of these energy greater dependence on electricity and sources. Higher energy prices have imported oil. caused a virtual revolution in the devel- Many counterproductive tax credits opment of energy-efficient technologies. and subsidies have been removed in re- The research thus stimulated continues cent years, but others remain and con- to yield dozens of promising new tech- tinue to impede progress toward an eco- nologies each year. nomical and sustainable energy future. The world's energy markets are still The first draft of the Reagan administra- impeded by inefficient or counterpro- tion's 1985 reform proposal called ductive government policies. Many na- for of virtually all the special tional tax systems provide subsidies to a energy tax credits in the U.S. tax code. variety of energy industries, often en- After an intense round of lobbying by oil couraging investments that would other- and utility industry lobbyists, however, wise not be economical. In the United the second draft restored most of the States, oil companies can deduct "intan- credits." Oil and utilities are two of the gible drilling expenses" to compensate world's largest industries, exerting con- for exploration risks and a "percentage siderable influence on policy delibera- depletion allowance" as compensation tions in which they have a stake. Reform for the loss of future revenues as oil re- of this irrational scheme of subsidies will serves are drawn down. In most r'un- require an enormous political effort by tries, power plant construction receives citizens and by the many other industries specialtaxcreditsandlow-interest that pay the price of such policies. loans. More recently, many nations have Government energysubsidiesare encouraged investments in energy effi- often justified on broad economic and ciency and renewable energy sources by national security grounds. Power short- enacting tax credits, grants, and subsi ages and heavier reliance on imported dized loans.54 oil are predicted if the subsidie; are Although the motivations for such eliminated. But domestic energy sources subsidies are often worthy, they gener- compete against one another as much as ally do more harm than good, favoring they compete against imported oil, and one energy source over another on polit- so special subsidies for coal or nuclear ical rather than on sound economic or power often have the unfortunate effect

1. "; 0 (96) State of the World -1986 of discouraging the development of less the exchange of technologies and infor- expensive and cleaner energy sources. mation on energy efficiency with indus- Energy efficiency investments are partic- trial countries. If even a fraction of the ularly discouraged by the subsidiespro- effort devoted to marketing nuclear vided to energy industries. Insome power in the Third World were turned cases, energy subsidies may actually en- to industry reforms and efficient tech- courage greater reliance on foreign nologies, enormous progress could be petroleum by discouraging the develop- made.58 ment of more energy-efficient technologies that otherwise would be ready the next time energy prices begin to climb. Countries that can ill afford to The centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union waste energy often have the least face some of the most difficult chal- efficient homes and factories. lengesin reforming energy markets. There, energy efficiency has not improved significantly in the past decade, Although freer energy markets are largely because artificially low prices central to any effective energy strategy, have insulated consumers and industrial they will require fine-tuning to meet the managers from risingworld energy challenges of the next decade. The main prices. The Soviet Union has the world's challenge is that oil prices are likely to second least energy-efficient steel indus- continue falling in the years ahead, send- try, lagging far behind the efficiency of ing consumers a message that could most Western facilities. Centrally eventually lead to higher oil consump- planned economies tend to favor large- tion and a future crisis. As in the early scale projects over changes that require seventitoil's price may drop below its thousands of smaller efforts. The energy long-term replacement value in most inefficiency of the Soviet economyun- countries. This would undermine en- dermines its efforts to compete in world ergy efficiency investments and the de- markets, but recent economic reforms velopmentofindigenous energy appear intended in part to address these so'irces. In the ilex' few years, energy problems.57 investments in many countries may be Many developing countries ha._ also unable to compete in cost with Middle failed to harness market forces effec- Eastern oil, which still comes out of the tively. Energy price subsidies and com- ground for only a few dollars a barrel. plex price support systems for various The current period of falling oil prices industries leave Third World consumers is a logical time for governments to step with little sense of the real cost of differ- in with higher taxes on oil. Ideally, such ent energy options. As a result, countries a tax would be levied on oil consumption that can ill afford to waste energy often so as to keep real oil prices at a fixed have the least efficient homes and facto- level or cause them to rise slowly over ries. Simply raising energy prices can time. However, policymakers so far have cause riots and will not in any case solve focused mainly on the possibility of tax- these problems. First, improvedman- ing imported oil, which would insulate agement and less rigidly structured dc mestic energy markets from interna- dustries are needed so that market sig- tional competitors but not interfere with nals can be properly used. The poor choices between indigenous energy must also be provided with affordable s -iurces.58 options. Many opportunities exist for Oil import taxes obviously present 111 Moving Beyond Oil (97) enormouspoliticaldifficulties,both manufacturers of automobiles and major within and between countries. Periodic appliances meet efficiency standards. efforts to levy such a tax have failed in Many of these are now outdated; others severcT countries in recent years. The are about to expire or have been relaxed time may now be right, however, given under industry pressure. Efficiency stan- the difficulties lower oil prices are begin- dards should either be extended and ning to cause for domestic energy pro- toughened or replaced with financial in- ducers in many countries. The Interna- centives that encourage sound energy tional Energy Agency (IEA) considered investments. Sales taxes based on the recommending such a tax, but instead energy requirements of particular appli- has opted for a free trade approach. ances would pi ovide manufacturers and However, IEA has encouraged more re- consumes more flexibility and might in alistic pricing of oil, including increases the long run stimulate development of in consumption taxes.60 The World more-efficient technologies. The key to Bank and the International Monetary optimizing energy efficiency is to pro- Fund have strongly urged, and in some vide an economic signal but allow manu- cases insisted upon, more "realistic" en- facturers and consumers to make the ergy pricing in developing countries. final decisions about what is produced Energy efficiency standards are also and bought.61 needed to supplement market forces in The enormous strides away from oil the next few years. The purchase of an dependence in the past decade provide automobile or a major appliance such as much reason for optimism. Opportuni- a refrigerator effectively commits a per- ties to increase energy self-sufficiency son to a particular level of energy con- and even to eliminate the need for im- sumption for 5-20 years, during which ported oil in some countries are far time the cost Jf energy may shift repeat- greater than at any time in modern his- edly. Consumers often have no way of tory. But dangers lie behind the recent knowing what those charges will be, and successes. The momentum achieved can they cannot always afford the up-front only be sustained by continuing innova- costs of making sound, long-term invest- tionin energy policies in the years ments. ahead. The key test is whether the politi- In several countries, most notably cal will for such change can be mobilized Japan, governments have required that in the absence of an immediate crisis. 6

Reforming the Electric Power Industry Christopher Flavin

The world's electric power industries Today, electricity provides a record may be on the verge of a transforma- one third of the world's primary energy, tion, one propelled more by new tech- and the industry faces its most serious nologies and changing economic cir- crisis since Thomas Edison opened the cumstances than by internal reforms. world's first commercial power plant in Saddled with over $100 billion of debt Manhattan in1882.1 Facing reduced and implicated in environmental dam- growth in power dentand and deteriorat- age costing billions of dollars, the elec- ing balance sheets, utilities have greatly tric power industry has become slug- slowed the ordering of new coal and nu- gish anddefensive. Many industry clear plants. In the United States, plant executives are preoccupied with the cancellations have outweighed new or- need for "regulatory reforms" and new ders since the late seventies; in Europe, construction programs, convinced that nuclear construction has slowed to a their salvation lies in business as usual, crawl. lubricated with even more generous Already, the push of disgruntled con- government subsidies. sumers and the pull of new economic But this sixties' approach will not opportunities have begun to redirect the solve the electricity problems of the power business. The development of in- eighties. It risks burdening utilities with dustrial equipmer, and household appli- ever greater debts, consumers with still ances that are considerably more ener- higher bills, and the environment with gy-efficient makes it possible to in effect more pollution. Rather, electricity's fu- build power plants in homes and facto- ture lies in more efficient and -nore series at less than one third the cost of lective use of power, the development of power from newly constructed plants. a range of small-scale generating tech- Electric utilities may provide the exper- nologies, and a more diverse and com- tise and investment capital needed to de- petitive electric power industry. velop the energy-equivalent of hundreds

113 dl

Reforming the Electric Power Industry (99) of nuclear and coal plants in the form of tors and television sets came to hun- improved efficiency. dreds of small towns and rural areas. Small-scale power generation, a seem- Consumers and industries found ever ingly utopian dream in 1980, has be- more ingenious uses for electricity. The come a major business in 1985. In the powerfulpullof electrificationwas United States, 1,297 small-scale power demonstrated at the fifti anniversary projects, with a generating capacity of of the U.S. Rural Electrification Ad- 24,965 megawatts, had been planned by ministration in 1985, when farmers in October 1985.2 The new sourcesin- Appalachia recalled with tears in their cluding a mix of cogeneration, biomass, eyes that day in the thirties when the small hydropower, wind power, and geo- lights went on. Electricity has become thermal energywill provide enough central not only to the wt,rld energy situ- electricity for 6 million homes. Develop- ation, but to the overall health of the ment of these technologies has also world's economies and environment.3 begun in other parts of the world, The oil price increases of the seventies though at a slower pace. began to change things. The first reac- The electricity business needs a struction was to assume that electricity would turaloverhaul.Utility monopoly of be an affordable alternative to costly oil. power generation hinders research on Many government and utility planners new technologies and robs utilities of consequently accelerated their nuclear thespiritof innovationthat drove and coal plant construction programs Thomas Edison and his competitors. most notably in France, which began Advances in energy efficiency have been building six nuclear plants each year. slowed because efficiency investments But rising oil prices also pulled up the rarely get the subsidies and tax breaks cost of generating power. In the United that many countriesgiveto power States, for example, the cost of fuel oil to plants. Gradually, mainly so far in the utilities rose sixfold in the decade after United States, market discipline and lim- 1973, and this was echoed by a quadru- ited forms of utility deregulation are pling in the cost of coal and a tenfold being tested. These experiments are increase for natural gas. The impact was being observed with interest by planners even greater in Japan, in much of in many countries, and modified vtr- Europe, and in the Third World. In addi- sions are being adopted in some. But tion, the average thermal efficiency of electric utilities, whether publicly or pii- fossil-fuel-fired plants leveled off for the vately owned, are huge and politically first time, and economies of scale be- powerful institutions, and fundamental came more elusive. Many large, complex change will require years of concerted coal and nuclear plants wound up cost- efforts. ing more per megawatt than the smaller facilities they replaced.4 Environmental standards have added further to the cost of power plants. In the UnitedStates,coal-firedpower ELECTRICITY IN TRANSITION plants release 64 percent of the sulfur dioxide and 30 percent of the nitrogen The drive to electrification was one of oxides emitted by all sources nation- the chief engines of postwar economic wide, contributing to respiratoryill- growth. Throughout the world, electric- nesses as well as the destruction of build- ity generation rode a seemingly endless ings, forests, crops, and fisheries. Since curve, doubling every decade. Refrigera- the late seventies, extensive pollution

114 (roo) State of the World-I986 controls have been required on all new emission reductions under the auspices U.S. power plants and on many of those of the European Economic Community built in other countries. The U.S. Envi- are being considered. Both in Europe ronmental Protection Agency estimates and North America, pressure is growing that flue gas desulfurization, he most to retrofit older power plants with pollu- common technology, adds 1-1.70 per tion controls.6 kilowatt-hour to the cost of coal-fired Nuclear power is also under growing power generation,a 20-40 percent pressure. In 1970 the Organisation for boost for a typical new plant. In 1983, Economic Co-operation and Develop- U.S. utilities spent $2.2 billion on pollu- ment (OECD) projected that its mem- tion control equipment.5 bers would have 568,000 megawatts of Most European countries were slower nuclear capacity by 1985. The actual to restrict emissions, but this changed total was only about 180,000 megawatts. dramatically in the early eighties. Acid Plans for nuclear plant construction rain, caused in part by sulfur dioxide and worldwide leveled off in the mid-seven- nitrogen oxide emissions, was found to tiesand the expectedcapacityhas be severely damaging Europe's lakes, dropped by more than 100,000 mega- forests, and cropland. Several countries watts since 1978. This is due largely to have already implemented strict controls the cancellation of 111 plants in the that will increase the cost of power gen- United States (see Table 6-1), but or- eration significantly, and continent-wide ders have also slowed in Europe, the So- Table 6-1. United States: Coal and Nuc'earPlant Orders and Cancellations, 1970-84 Orders Cancellations Year Coal Nuclear Coal Nuclear (mega- (mega- (mega- (mega- (plants) watts) (plants) watts) (plants) watts) (plants) watts) 1970 25 12,442 14 14,275 0 0 0 0 1971 18 7,811 21 20,876 0 0 0 0 197;) 27 12,682 38 41,526 0 6 5,738 1973 40 22,615 41 46,827 0 0 0 0 1974 71 34,183 26 30,931 0 0 8 8,290

1975 20 11,389 4 4,180 0 0 11 12,291 1976 13 5,938 3 3,790 2 800 2 2,328 1977 24 12,172 4 5,040 11 4,859 9 9,862 1978 28 14,634 2 2,240 5 3,125 13 13,333 1979 20 8,159 0 0 8 4,903 8 9,476

1980 6 2.688 0 0 9 4,348 16 18,085

.981 13 '3,135 0 0 1 640 6 4,811

1982 1 600 0 0 0 0 18 22,019 1983 0 0 0 0 21 6,554 6 6,038

1984 1 572 0 0 18 7,923 8 9,040 sot ACES Atumi.Industrial F ui um, "Historical Profile of U.S. Nuclear Power Development," Bethesda, Niel , January 1984, and prnate communication, coal data from U S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., and Kidder, Peabody, and Co., New York, private communications.

115 Refonaing the Electric Power Industry (roe) viet Union, and the several Third World electricity rose from 2.50 per kilowatt- nations with nuclear programs.? hour in 1973 to 7.60 in 1985. This is The 30 or so U.S. nuclear plants now real annual rate of increase of 5.5 per- being :ompleted will have an average cent, slower than price increases for gas- cost c : close to $3 billion$3,000 per oline or natural gas, but substantial kilowatt. The bill for the power they pro- nonetheless. Electricity prices are simi- duce will be approximately three times lar in Europe and even higher in Japan, the average wholesale cost of electricity where dependence on oil-fired genera- in the United States today. And even in tion has pushed them to 12-150 per kilo- France and Japan, where nuclear costs watt-hour. Overall, electricity prices in are perhaps half those in the United the OECD kept even with inflation States, nuclear power has become a through the mid-seventies, but have large economic burden. With a debt of risen about 25 percent in real terms $30 billion and a glut of generating ca- since 1979." pacity, the French state utility has slowed its nuclear orders from six per year in the seventies to one in 1985. The financial Thefinancialviabilityofthe viability of the vaunted French nuclear industry is now in doubt.8 vaunted French nuclear industry is Nuclear power has brought unprece- now in doubt. dented citizen participation to the previously closed business of electricity planning. Swedish voters decided in 1980 to The use of electricity has grown at less shut all of the country's nuclear plants by than half the rate projected in the early the year 2010, and Denmark's parlia- seventies, confounding planners who ment voted in 1985 to forgo commercial expected a massive switch from fossil nuclear power entirely. Many privately fuels to electricity. In the United States, ov:ned U.S. utilities have been financially usage pew at an annual rate of 7.5 per- damaged and now face protracted hear- cent between 1963 and 1973, but at just ings before state regulators who must 2.1 percent a year between 1980 and decide how much 3f the multibillion- 1985. The ratio of electricity use to gross dollar cost overruns can he charged to national productthe best measure of consumers.9 overall electrificationrose 5C percent Proposed price increases of 50-100 between 1960 and 1976, but it peaked in percent are no longer rare, causing cities 1976 and is now at the lowest level since such as Chicago and New Orleans to 1971.12 (See Figure 6-1.) consider breaking away to form their In France, electricity growth averaged own municipal utilities; 23 industrial 3.9 percent during the past decade; in companies on Long Island have an- Japan, 2.5 percent; and in West Ger- nounced plans to leave the area if the many, 2.4 percent. In the United King- Shoreham nuclear plant comes on-line. dom, electricity use in 1983 was slightly The old rule that consumers must carry lower than in 1973. At the same time, the risk of power plant construction has growth in per capita use of electricity has been broken, and most U.S. regulators also slowed greatly, and the surge of will scrutinize construction plans more growth caused by the economic recovery carefully in the future." of the mid-eighties appears to have been Rising costs have naturally led to short- lived.'3 (See Table 6-2.) higher electricity prices. In the United Forecasters have been struggling for a States, the average residential price of decade to catch up with the unpredicted

116 (102) State of the World-1986 Kilowatt- U.S. government's annual budget defi- Hours cit.14 800 Utilities, particularly in the United States, have responded to the lowered 700 horizons by canceling dozens of un- needed power plants, but not quickly enough. Most now have "reserve mar- 600 gins" of 30-50 percent, compared with the 15-20 percent that is usually consid- 500 ered adequate. Similar levels of surplus capacity are found in Europe, though Source: U.S Dept. of Energy not in Japan. This excess capacity will last at least until the early nineties, given 1960 1970 1980 1990 the many po-ger plants begun in the mid- Figure 64. U.S. Electricity Use Per 51,000 of seventies that are nearing completion. GM', 1960.85 The construction of unnecessary plants slowdown in the growth in electricity has cost consumers billions of dollars, and U.S. regulators in some states have use. The annual forecasts of the North refUsed to allow utilities to earn a profit American Electric Reliability Council, on facilities the regulators believe utility used by planners throu Jhout the United planners should have known were un- States and Canada, have been lowered necessary.15 for 10 consecutive years, invalidating the Although the rules of the game have previous year's efforts almost before the changed, some are still playing by the ink had dried. In 1985, summer peak de- old ones. In 1983, for example, the U.S. mand in the United States was 40 per- Department of Energy completed a cent lower than projected a decade ear- study that concluded the country would lier. This equals the output of 300 large need an additional 438,000 megawatts nuclear plants that would cost $900 bil- of generating capacity by the end of the lion at current pricesfive times the century, about two thirds of current ca- Table 6-2. Electricity Use Per Capita and Average Annual Rate of Change in Selected Countries, 1962-82

West United United Year France Germany Kingdom States (kilowatt- (kilowatt- (kilowatt- (kilowatt- hours) (percent) hours) (percent) hours) (percent) hours) (percent) 1962 1,598 2,180 2,577 4,187

1967 2,118 +5.8 2,800 +0.1 3,257 4 4.8 5,565 +5.9

1972 2,838 +6.0 4,095 +7.9 4,044 +4.4 7,621 +6.5

1977 3,615 +5.0 4,969 +3.9 4,320 +1.3 8,863 +3.1

1982 4,480 +4.4 5,424 +1.8 4,173 0.7 9,011 +3.0

SOL RCE.United Nations, AnnualReview of Electric Energy Statuttcs for Europe(New lu-k. various yea,;).

'16 Reforming the Electnc Power Industry ( I 03 ) pacify. The report called for a $1-trillion stalled in over half the new homes in the nuclear and coal construction program United States and much of Zurope.18 as the only way of preventing a power Wasteful use of electricityisnot crisis. On a similar note, the Interna- confined to capitalist or industrialcoun- tional Energy Agency (IEA) continues to tries. Electrification is promoted with urge accelerated construction of large equal fervor i-Moscow and Brasilia. It thermal power plantss a way of reduc- was chosen by many developing coun- ing oil dependence (despite the fact that tries as the best route away from oil de- most IEA countries now burn very little pendence in the aftermath of the price oil in power plants1.16 hikes of the seventies, and recentyears For many utilities, forecasting is still as have witnessed record levels ofpower much a political exercise as a technical plant construction. Electricity has also one. High-demand forecasts are needed enjoyed an almost mythical role in eco- to justify plants being planned and even nomic development efforts, and such many of those under construction. projects are the third largest investment Apocalyptic visions of blackouts and of developing-countrygovernments, stagnating economies are called inevita- after agriculture and transportation. lie if there is even a slight pause in the The World Bank reports that less than move to electrification. Harvard econo- a quartet of Third World households mist Fete. Navarro, author of The Dim- (excluding China) have a regular supply ming of America, argues that "the bulk of of electricity, which mans thatinclud- energy-sax ing and productivity enhancing China [port than 1 billion people ing systems, and word-processing equip- worldwide live without power. in Africa, ment . .. are electricity intensive." These ?er capita electricity use is typically one systems do useelectricity,but the twentieth the level in Europe, and the amount is minuscule, particularly com- bulk of the power is used in large urban pared with the potential for improved buildings and inefficient factories." efficiency. Some personal computers use Third World electricity systems are only as much electricity as a 100-wart notoriously inefficient and unreliable. light bulb, and each year new models Typically, 15 percent of the power gen- have even lower power requirement07 erated is "lost," about twice the normal Indeed, most of the growth in power rate in industrial countries. In India, for demand in recent years has gone to example, peasants often make tht:r own something less exciting than microelec- patchwork links into nearby power lines, tronicsthe heating and cooling of at the cost of occasional electrocutions buildings. Using very high temperature as well as planning chaos and a loss of heat to excite electrons and convey them revenues for indian utilities. Blackouts hundreds of miles to a house where they are increasingly common on the tninly are simply used to create low-grade heat stretched electricity systems of these na- is inherently inefficient. Even after the tions." natural gas price increases of recent Developing cc .ntries spend some $40 years, electricity has a BTU cost three billion a year and the World Bank loans times higher 4. Ithough electricity can be $2-3 billion annually for electricity proj- used more eficiently in heat pumps, ectsan averagef 17 percent of its even these cannot compete economi- total leno:ng. Brazil and China arenow cally in most climates with efficient gas in the alidst of two of the largest electrifi- heating systems now coming on the mar- cation ?rograms in history. Brazil has ket. Yet electric heating is specially sub- just built a hydro project as large as 12 sidized in France and Sweden and is in- nuclear plants, and China is ct,nsidering

118 (rN) State of the World-1986 an even bigger one. Overall, Third that are far less risky than continuing World electricity generation is sched- along the traditional path. uled to more than double by the end of the century. How effectively these funds are spent will affect Third World industrialization, living standards, and the international financial system." MANAGING ELECTRICITY'S China's electrification program is at a particularly important crossroads. The GROWTH ration's 1983 generating capacity of The notion that a penny saved is a penny 76,000 megawatts was less than twice earned may be a cliché, but it seems to California's, though its population was be a foreign concept to most utility plan- 40 times the size. This capacity provides ners. Yet for utilities, saving should be C.Aina with only 75 watts of power per exceedingly attractive, as it is now possi- person, compared with 3,000 watts per ble with modern technologies to save a person in the United States. Approxi- kilowatt -hour of electricity at less than mately 300 million Chinese-30 percent half the cost of producing a kilowatt- of the populationare still without elec- hour at a new plant. Using electricity tricity. The nation plans to triple gener- more efficiently is the key to a sustain- ating capacity by the year 2000, relying able power system. And investing in in- on the construction of large hydro pro- creased efficiency may be the key to a j:-.cts and on coal and nuclear plants. profitable power supply industry. China needs additional electricity for its The average efficiency of new hous,..- modernization programs. This scheme hold appliances in the United States has carries serious economic and environ- already risen 20-30 percent in the past mental risks, however, and there are in- five years, and in Japan it has increased dications that the cost of the nuclear por- by half. Socket-type fluorescent light tion of the program has prompted a bulbs are now available that use one reassessment.22 quarter as much electricity as conventional bulbs. Though they are expensive, they last 13 times as long, repaying a Brazil and China are now in the consumer's investment three times over. midst of two of the largest electrifi- New industrial motors that include ad- justable speed drives are 30-50 percent cation programs in history. more efficient.23 The cumulative effect of these improvements is mounting. Whenever a The Third World clearly needs addi- company replaces an electric motor, the tional electricity, and some construction new one tends to use less electricity. programs make sense. But many coun- When contractors build new houses, res- tries appear to be unaware of the prob- idential electricity use rises more slowly lems encountered in industrial nations, than the rate of housing completion. and they do not have sufficient financial The remainin; uncertainty is the pace of reserves to be able to afford many wrong these impJvements. Some states have turns. In developing as well as industrial attempted to set the pace by implement- countries, new opportunities beckon in ing minimum appliance efficiency stan- the electricity businessopportunities dards, and the U.S. Court of Appeals that may appear unconventional, but decided in 1985 that the federal govern-

119 Reforming the Electric Power Industry (105) ment must implement similar stan- enhancing the productivity of electricity dards." managing demand in a way that is The notion that productivity can im- beneficial for all. Amory Lovins of the prove over time has slowly permeated Rocky Mountain Institute, who has pio- the world of electricity planning. Most neered this concept, writes that "de- forecasts are now at least somewhat mand for electricityisnot fate but disaggregated by sector, and many plan- choice. Demand is not a predetermined ners use what are dubbed "end-use outcome to be prophesied by reading models" that include data on the elec- the entrails of forecasters, but rathera tricity requirements of all majoruses of variable to be influenced in accordance electricity. (Such a model can easilypre- with policy goals " Indeed,one of the dict the effect on supply requirements of advantages of an efficiency program is customers buying more-efficient refrig- that it reduces uncertainty. Planners will erators or insulating their homes.) Al- have a better idea of the rate at which though originally opposed by most plan- customers will improve efficiency, allow- ners, the concept of end-use planning is ing construction programs to better now endorsed by several mainstream or- match need and reducing the risk ofun- ganizations, such as the Electric Power warranted construction.2? Research Institute in the United States Since the mid-seventies, many U.S. and the International Energy Agency. utilities have adopted conservationpro- Unfortunately, most utilities have been grams, mostly in response to pressure slow to deveky the data base needed to from state regulators. The federal Resi- use the most sophisticated and accurate dential Conservation Service created by end-use planning models ^cw available. Congress in the late seventies requires The numbers plugged into the models utilities to offer energy audits to residen- often reflect efficiencies thatare not only tial customers, and many states mandate far from what is now feasible, but that more extensive efforts. A 1983 study by represent poor economic choices for the the Investor Responsibility Research consumer.25 Center found that 72 percent of thena- While the average efficiency ofnew tioti's utilitie, have formal energycon- householdapplianceshas improved servation programs and that two thirds gradually in recent years, studies 13;' have load management programs that Howard Geller of the American Council redirect power use to off-peak hours. for an Energy-Efficient Economy show (See Table 6-3.) The 120 utilitiessur- thatmanufacturershavedeveloped veyed said that their peak loadcan be much more energy-efficient devices that reduced by 30,000 megawatts during have not yet found theirway into inost the next decade, saving $19 billion in homes or utility planning scenarios. If avoided construction at a cost of only $6 gradually introduced, these technolo- billion. The programs includeenergy gies could free up power supplies for audits, home weatherization loans, and under 20 per kilowatt-hourless than cash rebates for the purchase ofenergy- one fifth the generating cost of new efficient appliances.28 power plants today. Studies indicate that One of the more comprehensive en- even gradual introduction of more- ergy management efforts, mounted by efficient technologies as old oneswear the Florida Power and Light Company, out could lower electricity growth rates has a goal of reducing the utility'spro- from 2-3 percent to less than 1 percent jected peak power demand by 2,100 annually.26 megawatts between 1982 and 190` -16 It is time that utilities became active in percent of the company's current gener-

1 2 0 (io6) State of the World-1986 Table 6-3. United States: Largest Utility Efficiency and Load Mai. _tment Programs, 1982 Projected 1982 Planned Savings as Annual Increase Generating Savings Percent of in Demand Company Capacity by 1992 1982 Capacity Through 19921 (megawatts) (percent) Florida Power 5,899 1,5 9 25 1.0 Penn Electric 2,736 671 25 2.0 Jersey Central 3,371 800 24 1.5 Duke Power 14,526 2,994 21 3.9 Carolina P&L 8,805 1,750 20 3.0

Florida P&L 12,865 2,100 16 3.5 Houston L&P 12,966 1,700 13 2.6 TVA 32,076 4,000 12 2.4 Pacific G&E 16,319 1,871 11 0.9 Oklahoma G&E 5,359 600 11 n.a.

Public Srv. E&G 9,023 956 11 1.3 So. Calif. Edison 15,345 1,500 10 2.0 Los Angeles DWP 6,749 601 9 1.7 Alabama Power 9,194 800 9 2.6 Bonneville Power 0 802 n.a. n.a. 'Including efficiency programs. SOL RCE. Douglas Cogan and Susan Williams, Generating Energy Alternatwei 1/4W ashington, D.C.. Investor Responsibility Research Center, 1983). acing capacity. So far the company has vcatments that will cost $600 million less performed energy audits on almost 300,- than an equivalent coal-fin-NJ plant. At 000 homes and encouraged the replace- least 25 other municipal utilitie° have re- ment of 50,000 inefficient central air bate programs for the purchase of effi- conditioners and heating systems. And cient appliances.29 in northern California, the Pacific Gas Although these efficiency programs and Eiectric Company (PG&E) has pro- are a good start, many are token efforts; vided $168 million worth of zero-inter- only a handful have the scale and scope est loans for customers who install spe- to constituterealisticalternativesto cifir conservation measures, along with power plant construction. Most utilities cash rebates for the purchase of energy- do little more than make programs avail- efficient appliances. The utility expects able; energy audits are often superficial, to spend $1 billion on these programs revealing only a small part of the conser- over the next decade, while saving at vation potential. Rental units and apart- least $3 billion worth of plant construc- ment buildings have been left out of tion by reducing projected peak power many programs. use by 1,900 megawatts. In Austin, Many utility executives still consider Texas, the city's municipal utility is now efficiency programs inimical to their in- building a 553-megawatt "conservation terests, par icularly when faced with power plant," composed of a variety of temporary excesscapacity.Inlarge household and commercial efficiency in- bureaucraticorganizations, programs 121 Reforming the Electric Power Industry (107) do not go far without the enthusiastic such as efficient water heaters, triple- endorsement of top executives. Some glazed windows, and extra-thick insula- have again started ;romoting electricity tionin each of 3,000 homes. Prelimi- sales--for things like greenhouse heat- nary results show that the local utility has ing during off-peak periodsa practice spent about 500 for each kilowatt-hour that is euphemistically called "valley saved annually, allowing both forcus- filling" but that in the longrun is likely tomer saving- and a return to the utility to result in the need for more power during the life of the building. And plant construction and higher electric power use has been cut in half at most bills.3° houses." To be effective, utility efficiencypro- The Hood River project ispart of the grams will have to he more extensive and Northwest Conservation and Electric include incentives so that the utility has Power established under congres- a real stake in them. Only when a com- sional mandate in 1983 inresponse to pany can realistically expect to earn a cost overruns and the eventual suspen- profit on efficiency improvements will it sion of four nuclear projects in Washing- invest heavily in them. One approach is ton State. Conservation i:: ..pecifically refor the utility to give thecustomer a loan quired where it is the more cost-effective for weatherization or the purchase ofan approach. By reducing projected load energy-efficientapplianceatslightly from 27,000 megawatts to 22,000mega- above its own cost of borrowingmoney watts by the year 2000, the plan will (at least 25 percent below therate for allow the region to avoid anynew plant home improvement loans). The loancan construction at least until 1998.33 then be repaid over severalyearsen- Congress considered legislationin tirely out of the savings realized from 1985, based on the Northwest Plan, that lower electric bills." would establish a least-cost model anda Such programs can in effect providea data base allowing utilities tocompare community with electricity far lessex- investment optionsincluding im- pensively than can a new plant, leaving proved efficiency as wellas ,.arious kinds sufficient margin to give the utilitya of new power plants. This legislation profit on its loan and providingeven would go far toward institutionalizing greater savings to the consumer once energy efficiency investments and would the loan is repaid. Variationsor. this ap- enable states to require that utilities proach have been tri-xl by utilities in the compare strategies fairly.34 states of California and Washington, but Utilities in other countries have been in most areas they will be possible only even slower to adopt programs to invest with new rules from regulators andnew actively in energy efficiency. As in the initiatives on the part of utilityexecu- United States, most utilities in industrial tives. Energy management firmshave nations now have temporaryexcess ca- sprung up that will now sign cor_tracts to pacity (above the normal 15-20percent provide a guaranteed level of electricity reserve margin), ranging from 7.1 per- savings in commercial buildings fora cent in Norway to 9.7 percent in the fixed price. United Kingdom and 30.4percent in A model effort to promote residential Switzerland. Utilities in many of these energy efficiency began in Hood River, countries are promoting electricityuse Oregon, in 1983, sponsored by Pacifi- in order to justify the dozens of nuclear Corp (formerly Pacific Power and Light) and coal plants scheduled tocome on- and the Bonneville Power Administra- line in the next few years." tion. Contractors are installing about Active promotion of the most wasteful $4,300 worth of conservationmeasures use of electricityfor home heatingis 122 (108) State of the World-1986 now prevalent in Europe, particularly in most far-reaching consequences. One France and Sweden. Sweden, despite a part of PURPA, which caused little stir national commitment to shut down all of when enacted in 1978, is now eroding the country's nuclear power plants by the traditional utility monopoly over 2010,isbuilding mainly electrically power generation. The law directs utili- heated buildings, which already claim 20 ties to connect up with small-scale inde- percent of the country's electricity.36 pendent power producers (also known Most utilities around the world still as "qualifying facilities") and to pay a have no financial incentive to invest in fair market price for the electricity. Al- eiciency, or in many cases do not even though based on free-market principles have the legal right to do so. Govern- endorsed by corporate executives and ments in Japan, West Germany, and conservative governments around the Sweden have fairly extensive efficiency world, PURPA has had a revolutionary programs, but these are independent of some might say subversiveimpact on the utilities, and they are not integral to the utility business." electricity planning. Japan's Tokyo Elec- tric Company has made a modest effort to encourage greater efficiency by struc- Cogenerationthe combined pro- turing electric prices so that they rise if consumption goes above levels consid- duction of heat anr: electricityis ered adequate to meet basic needs effi- the largest new pot ;er source devel- ciently. But many European utilities ac- oped so far. tuallylower pricesasconsumption increases." Even more than in the United States, Prompted by PURPA and by the avail- major institutional changes are required ability of generous tax subsidies for to move utilities beyond a preoccupation some forms of power generation, several with power plant construction. This is hundred U.S. companies have entered particularly true in the Third World, the independent power business since where subsidized electricity prices and 198O, bringing a spirit of entrepreneur- thelack of strong institutions have ship to electricity that was last seen in the tended to slow efficiency improvements. ear'y part of the century. With the Utilities' impressive technical and finan- knowledge that the risks they take may cial capabilities must be harnessed if effi- be well rewarded, independent power ciency's potential is to be realized. Un- producers have experimented with a less they are actively involved, utilities much wider range of technologies than will tend to view improved efficiency as utilities have, with many facilities less an unwanted competitor and will thwart than 1 percent the size of a modern nu- conservation programs." clear plant. By harnessing recent advances in microelectronics, materials science, semiconductor physics, and even aerodynamics and biotechnology to generate electricity for the first time, re- THE COGENERATION BOOM searchers have rapidly raised the effi- Of all the energy laws passed during the ciency and lowered the cost of many seventies, the U.S. Public Utility Regula- technologies. tory Policies Act (PURPA) may have the CogenerationtLe combined produc-

123 Reforming the Electric Power Industry (109) tion of heat and electricityis the largest Table 6-4. United States: Industrial new power source developed so far. Al- Cogeneration Capacity, 1982 though industrial cogeneration supplied half of U.S. electricity at the turn of this Ind "strial Share of century, its share had fallen to a meager Sector PlantsCapacity Capacity 7 percent in the early eighties. Cogener- ation (mega - is somewhat more common in (number)watts) Europe, thanks partly to the prevalence (percent) of district heating plants that employ the Pulp and 136 4,246 29 technology. West Germany and Finland Paper each get about one quarter of their elec- Primary 39 3,589 24 tricity from cogeneration; France and Metals Italy, about 18 percent." Chemicals 62 3,438 23 Interest in this technology has revived Petroleum 24 1,244 8 in the United States, and cogeneration Refining now provides over 15,000 megawatts of Food 42 398 3 capacity. Additional projects, with a gen- Processing erating capacity of 16,000-18,000 mega- Other 68 1,943 13 watts, are planned or under construction. The International Cogeneration Total 371 14,858 100 Society expects that 3,500 megawatts' souRcE: Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. worth of cogeneration capacity will have Congress, Industnal and Commensal Cogeneratson been completed in the United States in (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing 1985 alone." Office, 1983). Electricity generation and transmis- it's the only business of any consequence sion capti only one third of a fuel's in power equipment." One of themost energy value, making electricity an ex- aggressive participants is the giant Gen- pensive form of energy. With cogenera- eral Electric Company, which is financ- tion, an industry can raise the total effi- ing as well as building large cogenera- ciency of its plant from 50-70 percent to tionplants worth $600 million.In 80-90 percent. In most systems, the low- addition, dozens of smaller companies pressure boiler used to generate process have joined the industry. Each tendsto steam is replaced by a high-pressure specialize in a certain size and type of boiler that powers a steam turbine and project. Some manufacture equipment; electric generator. The low-pressure others supervise the design, arrange the steam exhausted from the turbine is financing, and contract out the actual used for industrial heat, space heating construction work. Most cogenerators and cooling, and water heating. The sys- rely on naturall;as-driven diesel engines tem is most effective in a facility that has and gas turbines. Others are developing Z.. relatively large ar d continuous need small fluidized-bed plants that burna va- for heat. The pulp and paper, primary riety of solid fuels." metals, chemicals, petroleum refining, The large petrochemical industry in and food processing industries all have Houston has thousands of megawatts of large heat requirements and have be- cogenerationpotential,andseveral come major users of this technology.42 companies are rapidly developing it. (See Table 6-4.) One of the largest projects to date pro- Cogeneration is a rapidly growing in- vides 1,300 megawatts of power for the dustry. Frank DiNoto of Hawker Siddely Dow Chemical Company in Freeport, Power Engineering notes, "Right now Texas. It uses the heat to process chemi-

1 2 4 (Iro) State of the World-1986 cals and sells some of the electricity to Cogeneration's potential is immense. Houston Lighting and Power. A rela- Although the U.S. Department of En- tively new use for cogeneration is energy is on record as expecting only an hanced recovery of oil at fields where the additional 25,000 megawatts from this petroleum is viscous and hard to extract. source by the year 2000, it now appears Cogeneration plants built in these areas that this figure will be surpassed in the can produce steam to be injectedinto late eighties. Development accelerated the fields and power to be sold to the greatly during 1985, with 8,236 mega- utility. Interest in this concept has mush- watts' worth of projects registered with roomed in Kern County, California, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commis- where several hundred megawatts of sion in fiscal year 1985 (through Sep- gas-firedcogenerationprojectsare tember), exceeding the amount in the under way. Several thousand megawatts two previous years combined. The U.S. of additional capacity have been pro- Office ofTechnologyAssessment posed and are awaiting approval by state (OTA) estimates a "technical potential" agencies concerned about air quality and for cogeneration by the year 2000 of long-range gas supplies.44 200,000 megawattsmore than one Most cogeneration projects begun so third of current U.S. generating capac- far range in size from 10 megawatts to ity. The International Energy Agency 300 and are custom-designed, but much projects that cogeneration in Europe smaller systems may soon be economi- will rise 75 percent by the early nineties, cal. Several companies are building mainly at district heating rather than in- small, modular cogeneration systems dustrial plants." that can be mass-produced. About 40 Manufacturers have geared up to were sold in 1983 and some 200 in1984, serve the cogeneration market, now according to the Frost and Sullivan mar- valued at $2-3 billion per year. Investors ket research company. One promising and regulators have warmed to the ecosystem is a 65-kilowatt plant fueled by nomics of cogeneration, which are better natural gas and designed by Hawthorne than those of virtually any other new Energy Systems of California for Mc- generating technology. Installed costs Donald's, the restaurant company. It range from $500 to $1,000 per kilowatt, producc! electricity as well as heat to run depending on the technology and fuel. a restaurant's hot water andair-condi- Total generating costs are 50 percent tioning systems. A microelectronic chip lower than for nuclear plants being built programmed with climatic and eco- and 20 percent less than for coal plants. nomic data continuously adjusts the sys- Whereas most early cogeneration proj- tem in response to the weather, energy ects were financed by the company actu- requirements, and the utility's pricfor ally using the steam, a growing number cogenerated power.45 are now backed by third-party investors, Engineers believe that similar systems bringing a welcome flow of capital to the installed in quantity would have a pay- business.47 back period of four years or less in areas where electricity prices are high. If installed in fast-food restaurants, shop- ping malls, hospitals, and schools, small- scale cogeneration systems would find a RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY market worth billions of dollars and could add significantly to energy sup- The emergence of the independent plies. pos er industry has also given newlife to Reforming the Electric Power Industry (iii) many renewable energy technologies. ment plants are also being used as utility Since1981, some 7,000 megawatts' fuels in several countries. The incentive worth of power projects driven by refor these projects comes mainly from the newable energysourceshave been mounting waste-disposal problems fac- launched in the United States, with par- ing many cities. Burning wastes greatly ticularly rapid growth in biomass and reduces their volume, which will extend wind power. The small hydro, geother- the lives of landfills. The revenues from mal, and solar industries may not be far power generation are an extra bonus. In behind.'5 1985, the waste-to-energy business blos- Biological fuels such as wood and agri- somed, and the number of projects tri- cultural wastes are relatively clean-burn- pled." ing and inexpensive. Although they The environmentalproblemsas- sometimes have high transportation and sociated with burning wastes that con- handling costs, they need fewer pollu- tain plastics and heavy metals have put a tion controls than does coal combustion, hold on some projects, including several and in many areas biomass is more read- in New York State. It is hoped that effec- ily available than coal. Scores of small tive pollution control equipment will plants run on biomass and wastes are soon be developed, and fluidized-bed now being built, mainly in North Amer- ica and Scandinavia. combustion shows promise of control- In Burlington, Vermont, the munici- ling some pollutants.51 pal utility completed in 1984 a 50- It is difficult to assess the potential for megawatt wood-fired power plant, the biomass-basedelectricitygeneration, world's largest. It was cheaper to build but waste products ranging from forest than an equivalent coal-fired plant. Fol- residues to walnut shells are widely avail- lowing the Burlington model, perhaps a able. In the United States, development dozen wood-fired power plants that can so far has been concentrated in the generate 10-20 megawatts are currently Southeast, the West Coast, and New En- being built, mainly in California and gland. The country currently has about New England, for less than $2,000 per 1,400 megawatts of such capacity and kilowatt. In areas with abundant wood another 2,000 megawatts planned or supplies, these plants have generating under construction. Close to half the costs of under 70 per kilowatt-hour. total comes from wood wastes, mainly Wood- and waste-fired power presents burned at wood industry plants that gen- few technical or economic obstacles. erate their own power and sell the excess Much of the challenge comes in ferreting to a utility company.52 out the abundant but dispersed waste Sweden leads in harnessing wood- products that can serve as feedstock. fired energy, mostly for district heating The biomass power industry plays a use- plants. The pulp and paper industry in ful role in locating these materials and that country is already almost energy putting together the technology and self-sufficient. Denmark is burning straw financing.' in several cogeneration plants that pro- About 90 plants fueled by agricultural vide district heating. The Philippines has ormunicipalwastesarecurrently built several wood-fired power plants planned or being built in the United since the late seventies and has pur- States. Garbage can either be burned di- chased equipment for a total of 17. Each rectly or methane call be extracted from has a capacity of 3.3 megawatts and is a landfill and used to run a generator. fueled by a plantation of fast-growing Sludge and methane from sewage treat- trees. Together the plants will be a sub- (I12) State of the World-1986 stantial component of that country's Massachusetts University estimates that power system in the nineties.55 10,000 megawatts' worth of geothermal Small-scale hydroelectric generators, power plants will be in place by 1990. oncc major electricitysources, have And the U.S. Geological Survey con- been neglected in recent decades. In the cluded in 1985 that the country may past few years renovation schemes and have a geothermal potential of 100,000 newlybuiltfacilitieshave increased megawattsincluding both electricity small-scale hydropower supplies in the generation and process heat.56 United States by almost 300 megawatts. Wind power is the most rapidly grow- Several hundred megawatts' worth of ing new electricity source. Starting from additional capacity are currently being near zero in 1981, nearly 13,000 wind built. The cost of a new facility typically machines, with a generating capacity of ranges from $2,000 to $3,000 per kilo- over 1,000 megawatts, were in place in wan, but retrofitting an old dam is con- California by the end of 198K(See siderably less expensive. Rapid develop- Table 6-5.) Virtually all are installed at mentof small-scale hydropoweris wind farms, clusters of 10- to 17-meter- occurring, but it will likely be slowed by diameter machines located in mountain environmental concerns. Growth of this passes and connected to utility lines. power source will probably be most Wind farm development has been spear- rapid in the Third World, where power headed by independent power produc- is lacking in many rural areas. China has ers who lease land in windy areas and long relied on small-scale hydro in rural manufacture or buy the turbines. Most areas and is now exporting its technol- of the financing is provided by third- f..4 party investors, lured in part by state and Geothermal energy is another grow- federal tax credits. A 100-kilowatt wind ing source of electricity. Where high- machine might cost $180,000 and pi o- pressure steam is near the surface, geo- duce $12,000 worth of electricity to be thermal power generation is already a sold to the utility each year. However, bargain Generating costs are reported with the tax write-offs available, the in- as low as 50 per kilowatt-hour. At The vestment has a payback of less than three Geysers in northern California, over 20 years.57 separate power plants have been installed in the past decade and together provide 1,400 megawatts of power, with Wind power is the mcst rapidly another 600 megawatts under development. The Philippines has developed growing new electricity source. four geothermal fields and is working on several more, hoping to have 1,700 megawatts of capacity by the end of The tax incentives have resulted in a 1985. Mexico has developed three major number of shoddy projects, but the eco- geothermal fields and now has a capacity nomics of most California wind farms is of 645 megawatts, with 2,440 megawatts increasingly sound. Sales to utilities in planned by 2000.55 1985 reached an estimated 600 million Central America, parts of Southeast kilo att-hours or $40 millionabout Asia, and the western United States have double that of all previous years com- the potential for major reliance on geo- bined. California wind farms now gener- thermal energy. Prime sites also exist in ateenoughelectricityfor180,000 partsof southern Europe and East homes during the five-month summer Africa. Ronald DiPippo of Southeastern windy season. Many wind machines gen- 127 Reforming the Electric Power Industry (//3) Table 6-5. California: Wind Farms, 1981-85

Machines Capacity Average Average Power Year Installed Installed Capacity Cost Generated' (million (dollars/ kilowatt (number) (megawatts) (kilowatts) kilowatt) hours) 1981 144 7 49 3,100 1 1982 1,145 64 56 2,175 6 1983 2,493 172 69 1,900 49 1984 4,687 366 78 1,860 195 19852 4,500 405 90 1,800 600

Total 12,969 1,014 78 851 2Most wind machines are installed in the second half of a given year and donot produce substantial power until the next year.2Preliminary estimate. SOURCE: Allernauve Sources of Energy, Septembc 'October 1985. erate electricity 90-95 percent of the California, Danish citizens are permitted time there is sufficient wind, matching to sell power to a utility and receive a the reliability of coal plants and exceed- small subsidy from the government. ing that of nuclear plants.58 Wind power will almost certainly one The cost of wind power to an investor day make a large contribution to the has fallen relatively slowly, to $1,800 per world's electricity systemsperhaps as kilowatt, but costs are likely to fall sub- much as the 13 percent share that nu- stantially in the next few years. Pacific clear power now provides 60 Gas and Electric, which has had its engi- The economic viability of several re- neers closely studying the wind ma- newable energy technologiesis now chines hooked up to its lines, believes proven, and most will be able to stand that the cost will fall tc less t ian $1,000 without tax credits in a few years. Re- pet kilowatt and that wind power will be ports by the California Energy Commis- the least expensive new source of elec- sion show that in 1990, cogeneration, tricity available to the utility in the nine- wind power, geothermal energy, and ties. Continuing deliberations about fed- many biomass projects will be less ex- eral and state tax credits for wind power pensive than a coal plant that meets Cali- will have a major impact on how rapidly fornia pollution standards. Small-scale this energy source is developed.59 power projects have the added advan- California so car has about three quar- tage of short lead times and limited in- ters of the wind capacity hooked up to vestment requirements, allowing plan- the world's utility lines. Substantial de- ners to follow demand needs closely and velopment has now begun in Hawaii, to avoid open-ended capital commit- where the small Hawaii Electric Com- ments and excessive interest charges. pany plans to be 20 percent reliant on This may well make z small-power proj- wind power by 1990. Denmark is the sec- ect preferable to a large one that is pro- ond largest national user of wind power, jected to be up to 20 percent cheaper.6I withover2,000 machinesinstalled Planners have also become increas- mainly on agricultural farms and the ingly optimistic that dispersed, fluctuat- world's first offshore wind farm. As in ing power sources such as wind can be (ry) State of the World-1986 successfully integrated into large power ing plants in rural areas or on rooftops, systems. Care must be taken, however, and they will allow a much greater de- to ensure that sufficient baseload power centralization of electricity supplies than is provided and that flexible energy virtually any other technology. Costs sources such as cogeneratibn are given must fall to about one fifth their current financial incentives to ensure their avail- levelto be competitive withutility ability at times of peak demand. More power, but projections indicate that this pumped-storage hydropower may be may occur by the nineties if research needed to provide rAiability in some funding is kept high. Fuel cells that n. r areas. The Hawaii Electric Company on natural gas, hydrogen, or some other hopes to meet 57 percent of its peak de- fuel are now projected to be a practical mand with renewable energy sources household or industry energy technol- within a few years, a formidable techni- ogy. Installed in a basement, they could cal challenge.62 heat and cool a home as well as produce There are a number of other energy electricity.64 sources that are not as well developed as Small-scale power generation is taking those just described, but that have po- hold far more rapidly than projected a tential to add to the mix feeding into few years ago. Half of all U.S. utilities utility lines in the more distant future. A now obtain some of their power from 1985 study by the Office of Technology independent producers. Figures from Assessmentconcludedthatseveral the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory major new power sources were likely by Commission show that 24,965 mega- the early twenty-first century. OTA ex- watts of such projects have been regis- pects the development of relatively large tered since 1980. (See Table 6-6.) The gasified coal and fluidized-bed plants average power output of each facility is and also dispersed and renewable tech- =Id::: 30 megawatts, less than 3 percent nologies such as photovoltaic cells, fuel as much as a large conventional plant. cells, and solar thermal power plants. Although it is impossible to know how ,4 Technology development and cost re- many of these projects will actually be duction are essential for all of these.63 completed, early indications an. that it Solar cells can be installed at generat- will be a high percentage. Many develop- Table 6-6. United States: Independent Power Projects Planned, 1980451

Power Source 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total (megawatts) Cogeneration 319 844 2,818 3,211 2,551 8,236 17,959 Btomass2 0 235 534 401 616 1,029 2,815 Wind 76 24 32 340 384 578 1,434 Hydro 59 45 63 380 382 273 1,202 Geotherma' 76 80 76 65 203 151 651 Waste 1 0 0 124 171 470 766 Solar 0 0 0 87 16 35 138

Total 531 1,228 3,523 4,608 4,303 10,772 24,965 'Figuresigures113ted by fiscal year. Includes projects for which applications have been filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission through September 1985.=Includes wood, agncultural, andmunicipal wastes. SOURCES: Cogrneratton & Small Power Monthly,all issues. Reforming the Electric Power Industry (Hi) ers do not register their projects until and that state has demonstrated impor- they are ready to break ground; most are tant successes and pitfalls that other scheduled for completion within a few states and countries would do well to years. examine. After protracted political bat- If small-scale power projects continue tles, California's consumers and the gov- to be launched at the recent pace, the ernment under Jerry Brown gradually United States alone could obtain 100,000 pushed the state's utilities in a new direc- megawatts from them by the end of the tion. The centerpiece is efficiency pro- century, or about as much as nuclear grams: building codes, weather:zation power now provides. There has been a for low-income tenants and homeown- major surge in cogeneration projects in ers, and appliance efficiency standards, the past year, with indications that as as well as the utilities' own efforts. A more states begin to open the market for study by Arthur Rosenfeld of the Law- electricity, development is accelerating. rence Berkeley Laboratory found that Other countries that have not yet pur- electricity use is growing half as fast in sued small-stale power generation are California as in Texas, despite nearly likely to have similar potential, but they identical rates of building and economic are impeded by institutional barriers. In growth.66 Europe,forexample,independent California utilities that once had to be power production isillegal in many penalized by state regulators for failing countries. to implement efficiency programs effec- Several governments are now actively tively are now actively investing in them. studying the implementation of PURPA The California Energy Commission esti- in the United States and considering mates that efficiency programs now in ending the utility monopoly in their own place will save between 12,400 and nations. Greece has passed its own 19,600 megawatts of peak power de- PURPA law, hoping to stimulate wind mand by 1996, worth $2 billion per year and solar development; Pakistan, with in the mid-nineties in avoided power U.S. assistance, is thinking of doing the plant construction. Meanwhile, no large same. In the United Kingdom, the Con- conventional power plants are currently servative governmentisconsidering planned.07 breaking the natior.al utility's monopoly The surge in independent power gen- on power generation as part of a general eration in California has also been remove to put government-owned compa- markable. By mid-1985 the state had nies back into private hands. In develop- 1,921 megawatts hooked up to utility ing countries, where people are more lines, and producers had signed con- dispersed and electric grids incomplete, tracts with the state's utilities for another many of these technologies are likely to 12,995 megawatts. (See Table 6-7.) be useful. Conditions are ripe for a rapid What began as a modest effort has led in increase in reliance on small-scale power four years to sufficent proposed capacity sources.65 to meet 39 percent of the state's peak power needs. New energy sources are being developed at a pace that will not only meet projected growth in electricity needs but allow much of the state's fos- ELECTRICITY'S FUTURE sil-fuel-fired power generation to be shut down. California is where fundamental changes What separatesCalifornia'ssmall- in the electricity industry first took hold, power program from that of most other

130 (zz6) State of the Warld-1986 Table 6-7. California: Small-Scale Power Technologies Planned by Major Utilities in 1984 and 19851

Planned 1985 Under Sources as Operating Contract Proportion of Utility 1984 1985 1984 1985 1983 Peak Load (megawatts) (percent) Pacific Gas and Electric 684 1,066 2,198 6,855 52

Southern California Edison 552 775 1,718 5,715 48

San Diego Gas & Electric 77 80 50 425 25

Total 1,313 1,921 3,966 12,995 392 'Figures for mid-year.:Includes several municipal utilities that have .tot signed many small-power con.racts. SOURCE"Alternative Energy Projects," a statistical compihtion by Independent Energy Producers Associ- ation, Sacramento, Calif., September 1985. states is its aggressive implementation of from... what appeared at the time to be the federal PURPA law. Utilities in the the impossible task of acceptably meet- state are required to offer standard long- g an anticipated seven percent annual term power sales contracts to indepen- growth rate in electricity demand... to dent producers that meet certain techni- how can we best choose from an abun- calandlegalrequirements. Those dance of supply options during -.n era of contracts are currently based on the unprecedented low growth in demand. utilities' "avoided cost" of generating While distinctly more desirable than the power using natural gas. State regula- problems of 'scarcity,' the complications tors plan to base avoided cost in the fu- associated with the new problems of ture on new centralized power plants.68 'abundance' are equally difficult."68 California has in effect deregulated Indeed, California has run across a the power generation portion of the util- number of unanticipatedproblems. ity business, and the result so far is that Small-power projects threaten to exceed small-power producers are building all transmission capacity in some seas. En- of the new plants in the state. Other vironmental battles are being wagtd states have hardly implemented PURPA, over many wind, hydro, and biomass offering only short-term contracts, low projects. Cogeheration could potentially rates, or, in some cases, no contract until be a large drain on the state's natural gas the plant is complete. Such procedures supplies. In mid-1985, the California make it impossible for independent pro- Public Utilities Commission decided to ducers to raise capital. suspend (-or one year the standard long- The 1985Electricity Reportof the Cali- term contract offers while officials study fornia Energy Commission sums np the the apparent glut of nearly 15,000 mega- charges in recent years: "ThisElectric-ay watts of proposed projects and figure Reportmarks the final stages of a transi- out a way to structure future contract tion from an era of scarcity to an era of offers that is fair to consumers, utilities, abundance. Our concerns have shifted and independent producers.78

131 . Reforming the Electric Power Industry (117) Utilities claim that so many projects assumptions on which this industry cur- were signed up because the avoided-cost rently depends. Many utilities may, for rate was too high, but this has not yet example, be overstaffed for the new era, been proved. So little was required in and many of their employees may need the way of environmental permits or a retraining. financial commitment that there was not much risk in signing contracts. Many de- velopers wanted to assure themselves a The traditional boundaries of the place in the power sales line, particularly power business are rapidly break- as rumors spread that contract signing might soon be suspended. ing down. Although incomplete, the California model provides a useful example to other states and co,intries wishing to re- Power generation is no longer a natu- form the electric power industry. The ral monopoly. Although transmission avoided-cost concept is a good one, but and distribution of power are best done it needs to be widened to include all pos- by a lau ge government-owned or gov- sible options for meeting electricity ernment-regulated company,smaller needs in a given area, including im- competitive firms can more effectively proved efficiency and renewable-enet gy- develop new technologies and build new based power generation as well as con- generatingplants.Thesmall-scale ventional plants. There should essen- power phenomenon has already resulted tially be an electricity-needs auction on a in de facto deregulation of power gener- regular basis, allowing the various meth- ation in some areas of the United States. ods to compete head to head. If the Taken a step further, utilities could be given power need can be met more cost- excluded from plant construction, open- effectively with a mix of weatherization ing up competition among private com- (provided by an independent energy ser- panies in building plants and selling vices company) and wind power than power to customers. Many utilities now with geothermal power and coal, then hope the PURPA requirement that ex- the market should rule. All proposed cludes them from owning more than half projects would havetoobtain the of a qualifying independent power plant needed environmental permits expedi- will be lifted, so they can compete for tiously in order to retain a conti act. power sales contracts. But this raises Addressing the fundamental issues thorny problems, as utilities that com- facing the power industry will take more pete for such contracts would be unable than the tinkering with traditional elec- to serve as evenhanded brokers. tricity policies that has occurred so far. Eventually,evenexistingcentral With utilities investing in efficiency and pow er plants could be operated inde- entrepreneurs building generating penamtly of utilities. Earnings would be plants, the traditional boundaries of the based on performance, rather than a power business are rapidly breaking guaranteed rate of return to the utility down. The energy services industry ex- stockholder. California may take a step pands yearly and is finaing vast potential in this direction: The state Public Utili- for improved efficiency. It is time plan- ties Commission is considering allowing ners considered seriously the possibility PG&E to earn only the avoided-cost rate of !lowly reduced power use, something on its recently completed Diablo Canyon that would undermine many economic nuclear plants, basing the utility's profits

132 (zz8) State of the World-1986 on how the plants are run and how com- ciency and environmental standards. petitive they are with other generating But the business of building new genera- sources in the region.7' ting plants and tapping the efficiency po- Electric utilities might one day be- tential would go to independent er tre- come "common carriers"similar to preneurial companies. pipelines or railroads that link producers Oncethesemajorinstitutional and customers. A power producer in one changes are made, the possibilities are region would be permitted to sign sales enormous. Eventually it may be possible contracts with users hundreds or thou- to make many farms and homes into sands of miles away. The electricity power generators, relying on photovol- would be "wheeled" across connecting taic panels on the rooftop and fuel cells transmissionlinesforareasonable in the basement. People would have the charge. The utilities would still be re- option of becoming totally independent sponsible for maintaining power lines of the wider electricity system or of and for billing customers, and, in coun- being linked with thousands of other tries where they are privately owned, the consumers any producers of vario regulated utility would earn a profit in sizes. It will be decades before the wo._ .1 return for this service.72 moves fully in this direction, but the in- Utilities would also help forecast and tervening years are likely to see much plan, and would channel funds to cus- more diverse, decentralized, and ecolog- tomers for improved efficiency. Govern- ically sound electricity systems. ments would set rates as well as effi-

1,33 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants

Cynthia Pollock

Nearly four decades and 350 power longer than 30 years. Numerous techni- plants into the nuclear age, the question cal difficulties, including the constraints of how to safely and economically dis- radiation buildup places on routine pose of nuclear reactors and their wastes maintenance and the inevitable embrit- is still largely unanswered. Unlike other tlement c i the reactor pressure vessel, electric generating technologies, nu- are likelto limit opportunities to ex- clear plants cannot simply be abandoned tend plant life. at the end of their operating lives or At the turn of the century, when demolished with a wrecking ball. Radio- growth in the demand for power is likely activity builds up each year the plant op- to be slow (see Chapter 6), nuclear de- erates, and all of the contaminated parts commissioning could be the largest ex- and equipment must be securely isolated pense facing the utility industry, out- from people and the envirc men. Some strippingplantconstruction.Given radioactive elements decay quickly, but current policies, most of this bill will be others remain hazardous for millennia. paid by a generation that did not take No one knows how much it will cost to part in the decision to build the first decommiss;on the hundreds of units in round of nuclear power plantsand that service or under construction around did not use much of the power gener- the world. Estimates range from $50 mil ated. lion to $3 billion per plant.' The enor- Although nuclear power supplied 13 mous rush to build nuclear power plants percent of the world's electricity in 1984, before 1980 means that much of the nu- not a single large commercial unit has clear decommissioning bill may fall due ever been dismanded.2 Nucicar engi- in a single decadefrom 2000 to 2010. neers have been attracted to the exciting Although engineers still debate about challenge of developing and improving a the life expectancy of a reactor, econom- new technology, not in figuring out how ical operation may not be feasible for to manage its rubbish. But as a growing

134 (I20) State of the World-1986 number of plants approach retirement research on and financial planning for age, the problem of dealing with reac- decommissioning. tors that are no longer usable will demand attention. Not one of the countries currently relying on nuclear power is adequately prepared for this challenge. The oldest commercial nuclear reac- DECONTAMINATION AND tors are already nearing the end of their useful lives, and some plants have closed DISMANTLEMENT prematurely because of accidents or Decommissioning is waste management A faulty designs. In the United States, doz- on a new scale, in terms of both com- ens of tiny research and military reactors plexity and cost. Following plant clo- are no longer used, four small commer- sure, the company or agency responsible cial units are shut and awaiting de- must first decide which of three courses commissioning, and the Nuclear Regula- to follow: decontaminate and dismantle tory Commission estimates that another the facility immediately after shutdown, 67 large commercial units will cease op- put it in "storage" for 50-100 years to erations before the year 2010. World- undergo radioactive decay prior to dis- wide, more than 20 power reactors are mantlement, or simply erect a "perma- already shut down, 63 more are likely to nent" tomb. Each option involves shut- retire by the turn of the century, and ting down the plant, removing the spent another 162 between 2000 and 2010.5 fuel from the reactor core, draining all Countries with advanced nuclear pro- liquids, and flushing the pipes. Elabo- grams will soon start to feel the pressure rate safeguards to protect public and associated with managing the new and worker health must be provided every broadened "back end" of the nuclear step of the way.4 fuel cycle. Under the immediate dismantlement The formidable issue of decommis- scenario, irradiated structures would be sioning will probably continue to get !P -- partiallydecontaminated,radioactive attention than it deserves. Utility compa- steel and concrete disassembled using nies and ratepayers balk at yet another advanced scoring andcuttingtech large expense associated with using nu- niques,andallradioactivedebris clear power. And politicians are reluc- shipped to a waste burial facility. The tant to make waves about an issue taat site would then theoretically be available will not come to the forefront until after for "unrestricted" use. their political careers are over. In m. ny Plants to be mothballed, on the other parts of the world, the nuclear power hand,wouldundergopreliminary industry is strapped for cash and no cleanup but the structure would remain longer commands the attention of scien- intact and be placed under constant tists, business leaders, or policymakers. guard to prevent public access. After 50 Developing new technologies and for- years in storage, most of the short-lived mulating complicated regulatory guide- radioisotopes would have decayed, fur- lines for safely transporting, storing, and ther safety gains would be negligible, disposing of radioactive wastes will be and the facility would be dismantled. En- difficult to accomplish in such a milieu. tombment, the third option, would in- But there can be little argument that volve covering the reactor with rein- public health and safety and the financial forced concrete and erecting un.. iers to solvency of utilities demand accelerated keep outintruders.Although once 135 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (121) viewed as the cheap and easy way out, the depth of penetrationthe range is entombment is no longer considered a typically from as little as several millime- realistic option because of the longevity ters to as much as 15 centimeters for of several radioisotopes.5 unsealed concrete. Alhough some ,,ur- A survey of 30 electric utilities in the face contamination can be washed of United States revealed that 73 percent usinghigh-pressure water jetsand planned to promptly dismantle and re- chemica' lecontaminants, only a frac- move their reactors following shutdown. tion of the material becomes clean Yet utilities in Canada, France, and West enough to recycle or dispose of in com- Germany are planning to mothball most mercial landfills.8 of their reactors for several decades The volume of soi"ents used must be prior to dismantlement.6 carefully regulated because the effluent Regardless of the method chosen, de- also becomes radioactive. Spills during commissioning a large nuclear power either operation or cleanup can result in plant isa complex engineering task, contamination of the surrounding soil. without precedent. The high levels of Keeping waste volumes to a minimum is radioactivity present at recently closed an elusive goal: Each piece of machinery reactors place numerous constraints on and every tool that comes into direct the decommissioning crew. Workers contact with a contaminated surface must take elaborate precautions, includ- must be decontaminated or added to .he ing wearing protective clothing and radioactive waste pile. breathing apparatus and limiting their The other source of radiation that time in contaminated environments. Ra- confronts decommissioning crewsis diationexposure must becarefully "activation"products. When nuclear monitored, and adhering to regulations fuel undergoes fissionthe splitting of can greatly reduce shift length. Produc- uranium atomsstray neutrons and tivity is unavoidably low, less than half of other particles escape and enter the sur- what it could be in a nonradioactive envi- rounding structures. These neutrons ronment.7 bombard the nuclei of many atoms, and Many activities are so dangerous that the resulting change in composition workers cannot perform them direct- causes some elements in the steel and ly. Remote-control technologies, often concrete that encircle the reactor core to used behind protective barriers, are thus become radioactive.9 a focus of industry research. At the dam- For the first several decades following aged Three Mile Island nuclear plant, plant shutdown, the most problematic recc maissance vehicles sent in after the elements are those that decay the fastest. accident scanned the general level of Measured in curies, or disintegrations radioactivity and pinpointed spots of per second, cobalt and cesium are the concentrated contaminants. Small de- dominant short-lived radioisotopes in tectors investigated inaccessible sites. A contaminated materials. Other elements glorifiedjackhammerandvacuum with longer half-lives (the time it takes cleaner unit is decontaminating concrete radioisotopes to decay to half their origi- floors. Advances in robotics will also nal levels) are prese:It in smaller quanti- help reduce the danger during decon- ties and will dominate radiation levels in tamination and dismantlement. the future. Significant amounts of long- Much of the radioactivity in a retired lived nickel and niobium radioisotopes nuclear plant is bound to the surface of are present in neutron-activated wastes structural components. The type or ma- and will likely render their unsuitable terial and its exterior surface determines for traditionalshallow-land dispc ,al.

136 of (122) State of the World-1986 The longest-lived hazardous element taminated and dismantled. The U.S. De- detected to date, nickel 59, has a half -life partment of Energy (DOE) completed of 80,000 years. Overall, activatedcom- the three-year project in 1974 at a cost of ponents contain over 1,000 times the $6.15 million. Underwater plasma arc radioactivity of contaminated compo- torches cut apart the reactor, and 2,600 nents.'0 cubic meters of radioactive waste were disposed of at government burial sites.12 Today's reactors can produce 50 times Practical decommissioning experi- more power and will have operated for ence is limited to very small reac- over seven times as long as Elk River. tors. Since radioactivity bt.ilds up in proportion to plant size and operating life, a 1,000-megawatt reactor used for 30 years would be considerably more con- Following preliminary decontamina- taminated. tion, the reactor and surrounding struc- Twenty-five miles outside of Pitts- tures must be dismantled into smaller burgh,Pennsylvania,thesmall72- pieces for transportation and burial. The megawatt Shippingport reactor is cur- pressurevessel containing a1,000 - rently being decommissioned by DOE. megawatt reactor is typically over 12 me- Opened in 1957 as the first commercial ters high and 4 meters in diameter and power reactor in the United States, the may not be able to be shipped intact. But plant has had three different cores and cutting it into pieces is hazardous and already undergone one round of decon- expensive. Each cut causes more air- tamination. Despite unique operating borne contamination and greater worker experience, Shippingport could be used exposure. Remote operations and the as a valuable and badly needed decom- need to keep dust formation to a mini- missioning prototype.Instead, DOE mum complicate the dismantlement. plans to encase the 10-meter-high steel One technique that has been used suc- reactor vessel in concrete, lift the 770 - cessfullyisunderwater cutting with ton behemoth intact, and send it by plasma arc torches. Other methods barge down the Ohio and Mississippi being evaluated are laser beams, better rivers, through the Gulf of Mexico and mechanical cutting tools such as dia- the Panama Canal, and up the Pacific mond-tipped saws, and explosives to Coast and Columbia River. It will be bu- break up concrete shields." ried in an earthen trench on the govern- New, larger waste containers will mini- ment-runHanfordnuclearreserva- mize the extent of dismantling required, tion.13 and volume reduction techniques now Keeping the Shippingport reactor being developed may substantially re- pressure vessel in one piece is estimated duce the number of waste disposal ship- to lop at least $7 million, or 7 percent, ments. One of the most obvious and sim- off the total price tag, but this action is plest approaches is to melt the steel. shortsighted. Larger reactors may be too Other strategies include nesting the big to ship in one piece, and the most componentsandcompactingthem difficult task decommissioning crews will under high pressure. face is dismantling the pressure vessel Practical decommissioning experience and its contents. Tackling that problem is limited to very small reactors. The 22- now at Shippingport could provide valu- megawatt Elk River plant in Minnesota is able knowledge and experience." the largest that has been fully decon- In Europe, dismantlement of several

137 ° , "Ir.!

Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (123 ) commercial reactors is currently being eration in 1976. Immediate dismantle- planned. The first three projects are the ment would make the site available for 100-megawatt Niederaichbach unit in other uses and would limit potential West Germany, the 33-megawatt Wind- public exposure to radiation. Yet efforts scale advanced gas reactor in the United to dismantle the plant are not expected Kingdom, and the 45-megawatt French until after the turn of the century." G-2 gas reactor at Marcoule. Although the French and,K. plants arc small, each operated for about 20 yearslong enough to become well contaminated. The larger, German reactor was in ser- WASTE DISPOSAL vice for only two years before technical difficulties resulted in its closure. Each Considering the volume of radioactive unit has a different design, and problems waste being accumulated around the unique to specific technologies are likely world, the lack of progress in its manage- to be discovered." ment is disturbing. Few nations have Experience gained at the damaged commercial disposal facilities for low- reactor at Three Mile Islandthe site of level radioactive wastes. And not a single the most serious mishap in the history of country has developed a permanent nuclear powerwill also aid future de- repository for the most dangerous, high- commissioning work. The industry's level, wastesspent fuel and the by- knowledge of robotics, chemical decon- products of fuel reprocessing. Disman- taminants, and remote cutting tech- tlement and burial of nonoperating and niques has greatly expanded as a result dangerous commercial nuclear facilities of the cleanup effort. Internatic-.-.a urfor- will not be possible until there are safe mation sharing and on-site observations places to put the radioactive remains. by foreign experts have helped ensure that these lessons will be widely applied. The level of contamination at Three Few nations have commercial dis- Mile Island is many times higher than posal facilities for low-level radio- will be encountered at most power reactors; cleanup costs are projected to pass active wastes. $1 billion before decommissioning itself is contemplated." The overriding consideration in se- Some 12,000 metric tons of commer- lecting a decommissioning schedule and cial high-level wastes are already in stor- the appropriate decontamination and age in the United States alone and the dismantlement methods must be worker volume will quadruple in the next 15 and public safety. Although radioactivity years. The toxicity of such wastes re- declines more than tenfold during the quires that they be kept out of the bio- first 50 years after plant closure, thereby sphere for at least 10,000 years, longer reducing worker exposure, the reactor is than recorded history. Most countries a potential hazard during the cool-down plan to bury the waste in geologic period. 'I he retired Humboldt bay reac- repositories between 300 and 1,200 me- tor on the northern California coast is a ters deep. One of the strongest reasons good example. It lies in a seismically ac- for pursuing burial is that it eliminates tivezoneandis notstructurally the need for institutional enforcement." equipped to handle tremorswhich is Where to put these disposal sites is a why it was permanently taken out of op- contentious issue in each of the 26 coun-

138 (124) State of the Wcrld-1986 tries that produce nuclear power. The the food chain and water supplies until lack of high-level waste repositories is an they have decayed to harmless levels. omission that will limit the decommi, Reprocessing of spentfuel,once sioning of commercial facilities untilat viewed as essential to the long-term via- least the turn of the century. It is impos- bility of nuclear power andas a way of sible to fully dismantle a reactor if there eliminating the need to dispose ofura- is nowhere to put the spent fuel cooling nium and plutonium, is now practiced in utility stcrage ponds. commercially in only two countries The fuelfor most nuclear power France and the United Kingdom. Re- plants consists of small pellets ofura- processing stretches uranium supplies nium oxidethe size of pencilerasers by recovering the unused uranium and that are sealed in 12-foot-long metal plutonium, but the process costs several tubes and bundled into fuel assemblies. times more than mining and enriching Fission products that result from the uranium ore. The British plant at Sel- splitting of uranium atoms gradually lafield and the French Marcoule and La build up to a point that inhibits the chain Hague facilities each accept domestic reaction. One fourth to one third of the and foreign spent fuels. The recovered fuel in a typical reactor must be replaced uranium and plutonium, and the vitrified each year. The spent fuel is highly radio- high-level wastes (converted by heat into active and consequently very warm. Re- glass cylinders), are to be returnedto the mote handling conducted behind heavy countries of origin.20 shielding is essential. Although reprocessing gets spent fuel away from the reactor, it does not eliminate the waste disposal problem. In- Potential host states and environ- deed,reprocessing compoundsthis mental groups have filed lawsuits problem because it increases thenum- challenging the adequacy of the sit- ber of times the f lel is handled and transported. Mobility increases the risk ofan ing guidelines. accident and the chance that plutonium could be used in weapons productionor stolen by terrorist groups. Exposure to the spontaneous decay Several high-level waste repositories process can result in radiation sickness, have been proposed and testedover the and sometimes death. Long-term effects, years, most extensively in the United intensified if radioisotopes themselves States, but none has yet proved accept- are ingested or inhaled, include cancer, able for receiving commercial spent fuel. birth defects, and genetic mutations. Political opposition may be a more diffi- Radioisotopes are so dangerous because cult obstacle than finding a geologically tli-y mimic essential nutrients, concen- appropriate site. Waste disposal is likely trate in vulnerable organs, and then to be particularly tough where popula- decay inside the body. Strontium, for ex- tion densities are high, such as in Japan ample, accumulates in bones; iodine and many European nations. Some builds up in the thyroid gland. Andun- countriesthe Netherlands, for exam- like many toxic chemicals, radioactive ple, where there is strong public opposi- waste cannot readily be detoxified or de- tion to domestic waste disposal--are stroyed. Unreprocessed spent fuel will hoping that international sites will be- remain more toxic than the original ura- come available, perhaps operated by nium ore for about 3 million years.19 reactor suppliers. Yet the likelihood that High-level wastes must be kept out of any nation would want to accept large

1 3 9 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (125) volumes of waste not generated inter- temthatseveralnations,including nally is small. China has reportedly of- Japan, the United Kingdom, and West fered to store West German spent fuel in Germany, intend to adopt. Plans are to the Gobi Desert, but discussions are still keep the glass cylinders in above- ground at an early stage. The Soviet Union is the storage vaults for several decades to cool only country that takes back the high- and then to place them in permanent

level wastes generated by the reactors it geologic repositories.22 fi sells, most of them to Eastern European In the United States, spent fuel is cur- nations.21 rently stored at reactor sites in water- The geologic medium chosen for a filled basins. Storage space is running 4 permanent repository is thus likely to be out at many older plants. In 1982 the limited by the options available domesti- U.S. Congress passed the Nuclear Waste cally. Sweden plans to dispose of its Policy Act (NWPA), requiring the fed- high-level wastes in granite, West Ger- eral government to develop two perma- many is examining the use of salt mines, nent mined geologic repositories and and Belgium hopes to place its waste in have the first ready for business by 1998. clay. (See Table 7-1.) At this time, no The Environmental Protection Agency single disposal medium is considered has issued standards limiting radioac- substantially superior. Problems have tivity releases from the 300- to 1,900 - been found with each, though in most meter -deep burial sites for 10,000 years. cases they are not viewed as insurmount- The location of the first repository has able. been tentatively narrowed to three sites: Nations must also decide if they want Hanford, Washington; Yucca Mountain, a repository for spent fuel, reprocessing Nevada; or Deaf Smith County, Texas.23 wastes, or both. Spent fuel is solid and Final site selection has already be- contained in metal rods, while repro- come a political hot potato. Potential cessing wastes are in a liquid state and host states and environmental groups mustbesolidifiedbefore disposal. have filed lawsuits challenging the ade- France has developed a vitrification sys- quacy of the siting guidelines. According Table 7-1. Geologic Media Selected for Further Study as High-Level Waste or Spent Fuel Repository in Various Countries

Country Granite Clay Salt Basalt Tuff Shale Diabase Belgium X Canada France Japan Spain

Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States West Germany

SOURCE. K.M Harmon, "Survey of Foreign Terminal Radioactive Waste Storage Programs," inProceedings of the 1983 Civihan Radioactive Waste Management Information Meeting,Washington, D.C., December 12-15, 1983 (Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service,, 1984). ( 126) State of the World-1986 to James Martin, a staff attorney with the the first to enact a bill forbidding further Environmental Defense Fund: "First, nuclear power plant construction until there are concerns that, in its haste to "the federal government has approved, site a repository, [the Department of En- and there exists, a demonstrated tech- ergy] has relied on pre-NWPA studies of nology or means for the disposal of high- dubious quality and is delaying analysis level nuclear wastes." Not a single new of waste transportation risks that cannot nuclear reactor has been ordered in the be deferred. Second, there is evidence United States since 1978, but the deteri- that politics are creeping into and taint- orating economics of nuclear power, ing the decision-making process. These slowerthanprojected electricity- factors pose grave threats to the integ- demand growth, and tightened regula- rity and public acceptance of the siting tion after the accident at Three Mile Is- procesS."24 land are the principal causes." Each of the proposed sites has draw- Following the California example, backs. There is much concern, for exam- Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, and West ple, that disposal at Hanford could lead Germany have enacted "stipulation" to contamination of the nearby Co- laws making continued use or construc- lumbia River. And farmers in Texas fear tion of nuclear power facilities contin- contamination of the aquifer they use to gent upon the development of satisfac- irrigate their crops. Making optimal site tory plans for managing the spent fuel selections will be difficult, but the only and reactor wastes. Japan has similar way to be confident about the final regulations in place, and one commenta- choice is to conduct extensive testing at tor likens its lack of high-level waste each proposed locatio,i and make there- disposal facilities to "living in a house sults available for scientific review. without a toilet." According to the Inter- Several nations are examining international Atomic Energy Agency in Ge- mediate storage of spent fuel at central- neva, the present inability to dispose of ized locations away from reactor sites. high-level wastes is impeding the devel- Sweden has the most advanced program: opment of nuclear power in developing Its CLAB facility, adjacent to the Oskar- countries.27 shamn power station, will hold spent Lack of adequate low-level waste dis- fuel from all Swedish reactors for several posal facilities may prove to be an decades prior to geologic disposal. In equally difficult impediment to decom- the United States, three sites in Tennes- missioning. Although this waste iscon- see, including the abandoned Clinch siderably less toxic, it is produced in far River breeder reactor, are being consid- greater volumes. At the end of a 30-year ered for a monitored retrievable storage operatinglife,dismantling a typical program. If adopted, the storage plan large reactor will produce some 18,000 would allow the U.S. Department of En- cubic meters of low-level radioactive ergy to fulfill its obligation to take pos- wasteenough tr, dump four meters' session of commercial spent fuel in 1998 worth atop a football field. (See Table even if a permanent geologic repository 7-2.) is not yet available. Storing the fuel Decommissioning just one large reac- would result in further cooling, thereby tor would yield a volume of con- facilitating disposal, but it would also in- taminated concrete and steel equal to crease fuel shit -lents, and should not be one sixth of the low-level radioactive allowed to slow the development ofa wastes now produced in the United nermanent disposal site.25 States each year. Decommissioning all .ri 1976, the California legislature was U.S. operating reactors would yield well 141 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (127) Table 7-2. Estimated Low-Level environment. The reprocessing opera- Radioactive Wastes from Dismantlement tion at Sellafield, however, still pumps of a Typical 1,100-Megawatt Pressurized 1.2 million gallons of slightly radioactive Water Reactor wastewater into the ocean daily." In the case of on-land disposal, stan- Material Burial Volume Truckloads dard procedure is to pack the waste, (cubic meters) (number) which includes everything from concrete to workclothes, in barrels, and store Activated 216 them either at the reactor site or in spe- Metal 484 cially designated warehouses. In only a Concrete 707 half-dozen countries are the drums transported to land-based commercial low- Contaminated 967 level waste depositories and buried in Metal 5,465 earthen or concrete trenches. Concrete 10,613 Although sometimes regard;:d as the leader in the waste disposal field, the Radioactive 618 180 United States is still far from having a workable, long-term program. In the Total 17,887 1,363 late seventies only half of the country's SOURCE:R.I.Smith,G.J.Konzek, and W.E. low-level waste sites were still operating Kennedy, Jr.,Technology, Safety and Costs of Decommts- one each in Nevada, South Carolina, swning a Reference Pressurized Waist Reactor Power &a- and Washington. Objecting to their role tm(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1978). as the nation's dumping ground, the three state governments closed or re- over 1 million cubic meters of low-level stricted access to their facilities for a waste, enough to build a radioactive wall short time in 1979." three meters high and one meter wide This prompted Congress to pass the from Washington, D.C., to New York Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act City. All the contaminated and activated in 1980. The law, designed to encourage components of the reactor require spe- states to form regional agreements to es- cial handling and disposal, and some of tablish and operate disposal facilities the wastes are considered too radioac- cooperatively, is being complied with tive for shallow land burial. The staff of only sluggishly.Without last-minute the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commis- congressional intervention, over half the sion have identified "several kinds of de- low-level waste Produced in the United commissioning wastes foz which dis- States, accounting for nearly three quar- posal capacity is presently either not ters of the radioactivity, would have been available or not assured under the cur- barred from the nation's three commer- rent statutory and/or regulatory frame- cial dump sites as of January 1986. A work."28 seven-year extension of the deadline has Un:il the sixties, the United States and given states some breathing ',A:1m. The many other nations discarded low-level first seven "regional compacts," involv- wastes by dumping them at sea. Bel- ing 37 states, have also been approved. gium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and In anticipation of a shutdown, about a the United Kingdom were still dumping dozen utilities recently built on-site stor- much of their low-level waste until 1983, age facilities. These temporary dumps when the London Dumping Convention are designed to hold six or seven years' declared a moratorium pending a scien- worth of low -level waste." tific study of the effect on the mark'''. E's en if current waste sites remain

142 (128) State of the World-1986 open, they are too small to ac'.ommo- oped comprehensive regulationsgov- date the volume of waste expected from erning the packaging, transportation, decommissioning. At Barnwell, South and disposal of radioactive wastes. Re- Carolina, a proposed federal ceiling will search and development activitiesare limit annual waste shipments to34,000 progressing, albeit slowly, andcon- cubic meters. Barnwell's32trenches cerned citizens around the worldare try- could therefore accept the decommis- ing to draw attention to the issue. sioning wastes from only two reactors Implicit in the decision to developnu- each year, assuming all existing disposal clear power should be acceptance of the contracts were cancelled.32 responsibility to safely manage radioac- Sweden plans to store its low-level tive wastes. At present, decommission- radioactive waste in numerous galleries ing policy is held hostage to the lack of and chambers sunk into granite rock 50 disposal sites. Few electric utilitiesare meters below the seabed. Some nations, likely to proceed with reactor dismantle- including West Germany, are temporar- ment until they can be assured that all of ily storing such wastes in above-ground the waste will have someplace to go and warehouses, waiting for a time when per- that the site will then become available manent burial sites become available. At for other purposes. least one future German repository is planned at a former iron ore mine. Japa- nese nuclearplantsstoretheac- cumulated low-level wastes on-site. In- cineration and compression facilities keep waste volumes manageable while COST ESTIMATION research is conducted on both land and The cost of decommissioning nuclear sea disposa1.33 power plants is highly speculative: As Moving both high- and low-level noted earlier, the figures put forward wastes to their final resting ground is an run from $50 million to$3billion per integral step in the disposalprocess. reactor. The majority of estimates clus- Various transport modes are envisioned. ter at the low end of the range. Some In the United States, trains and trucks cost projections were adopted from ge- will carry most of the load. In Sweden all neric estimates, others used a rule-of- of the waste will be moved by ship; in thumb based on a fixed percentage of other countries, a combination of trucks, construction costs, and a few werear- trains, and boats will be used. Thecom- rived at using detailed, site-specific engi- paratively small volume of wastes cur- neering studies. In effect, all the figures rently removed from operating plants is put forward are guesses based on nu- often transported on routes planned to merous uncertain assumptions and vary- bypass population centers. When this is ing degrees of wishful thinking. unavoidable,high-levelwasteshave In1978the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory sometimes been moved in the middle of Commission asked the Battelle Pacific the night with armed escorts. In1976, Northwest Laboratory to estimate the New York City banned radioactive waste cost of decommissioning generic 1,100- shipments withinitsborders, Other megawatt pressurized and boiling water communities across the countrysoon reactors (PWRs & BWRs). (These are followed suit. After a protracted legal the most common designs worldwide, battle, the U.S. Department of Trans- accounting for72percent of all operat- portation ruled these restrictionsil- ing reactors-165 PWRs and77BWRs.) legal.34 Battelle's figures ranged from $61.5 mil- Many countries still have not devel- lion to $86 million, dependingon the 143 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (129) plant-specific technology and the num- more than a sixfold increase in 10 years. ber of years after shutdown that disman- A report issued by the group in 1976 tlement would be deferred. Immediate estimated that a 1,100-megawatt pres- dismantlement of a PWR was estimated surized water reactor could be decom- to be the least expensive, while waiting missioned for $27 million. And in Swit- 30 years to dismantle a BWR was consid- zerland, a detailed three-year study of ered to be the most costly. In general, it decommissioning costs concluded that is more expensive to dismantle a boiling retiring a nuclear plant would cost one water reactor, all other factors being fifth as much as the facility originally cost equal, because a greater volume of con- to build. This translates into several taminated wastes is produced.35 hundred million dollars for recently For many years, the lack of detailed completed plants." plant-specific cost estimates led regulatory agencies and utilities to apply the Battelle figures to a great variety of In effect, all the figures put forward facilities. Little notice was paid to differences in plant size and design, future are guesses based on varying de- availability of and distance from waste grees of wishful thinking. disposal facilities, and unique site characteristics such as space limitations or difficult topography. But as individual Economist Duane Chapman at Cor- utilities began to conduct their own site- nell University, an independent analyst, specific cost estimates and as various predicts that decommissioning will cost component costs, such as waste disposal, as much as the original construction, in rose much faster than anticipated, it be- constant dollars. In the United States, came obvious that the initial estimates this amounts to an average of about $3 were too low. billion for a new 1,000-megawatt unit. In1984, Battelle updated itsesti- Chapman points to the complex proce- mates, for the Electric Power Research dures and technologies involved, the Institute, and costs had indeed risen large volumes of radioactive wastes, and much faster than inflation over the chronically understated nuclear con- preceding six years. Waste disposal costs struction costs. Research done at the rose the fastest. Assumptions were also Rand Corporation introduces another modified to refle i current regulations element of uncertainty. Analysts there and market conditions. The price tag for have concluded that large-scale engi- immediate dismantlement rose 69 per- neering projects that depend on newly cent for a PWR and 108 percent for a developed technol pgies cost on average BWR. Comparative site-specific, rather four times more than predicted at the ti- an generic, estimates for the same size outset. Recent U.S. nuclear power plant plants resulted in estimates of $140.5 construction costs have amounted to million for a PWR (35 percent higher 5-10 times the original estimate, even than the updated Battelle estimate) and after accounting for inflation. Cost over- $133.6 million for a BWR, excluding the runs of several hundred percent have be- costs of removing nonradioactive struc- come the norm raft' nr than the excep- tures .36 tion.38 Cost estimating guidelines recently Because of gross cost overruns, ap- developed by the Atomic Industrial proximately $20 billion worth of par- Forum, an industry trade group, led tially constructed nuclear plants In.ve members to project a decommissioning been abandoned in the United States. In cost of $170 million per plant. This is the early seventies, reactors were pro-

144 (130) State of the World-1986

jected to come into serviceat less than Shippingport facility, despite being able $1 million per megawatt, butnone have to take advantage of a unique transpor- done so in recent years. Costs for just- tation arrangement and federally subsi- completed units have averaged clostto dized waste disposal, is expectedto cost $3 million per megawatt, andat the not- $98 million to decommission$1.36 yet-operating Shoreham planton Long million per megawatt. This figureex- Island, the figure has already surpassed cludes the cost of dismantlingnoncon- $5 million per megawatt." Decommis- taminated buildings. sioning cost estimates put forward by the It is unlikely that these estimatescan nuclear industry presumably counton a be directly scaledon a per megawatt learning curve of experience causing basis, but the propositionmay not be costs to fall over time. But U.S. nuclear farfetched.Althoughtherewillbe construction experience appears to defy economies of scale involved, the amount the learning curvecosts accelerated of radioactivity that buildsup in a plant over the years. is proportional to the plant's capacity Decommissioning cost estimates for multiplied by the number ofyears it op- two of the first generation of retired erates. Thus the larger the plan:, the reactors amount to more than $1 million more radioat tive itwill be, and the per megawatt. (See Table 7-3.) The greater the cleanup and disposal effort it Table 7-3. Estimated Deccmmissioning Costsfor Nuclear Power Plants No Longer in Operation

Estimated Cost Decommissioning Per Years Owner/Site Capacity Costs Megawatt Operated (megawatts) (million 1985 dollars) U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Elk 24 141 0.58 1962-68 River

UK Atomic Energy Authority, 33 64 1.94 1963-81 Sellafield/Windscale

Pacific Gas & Electric, Humboldt 65 55 0.85 1963-76 Bay-Unit 3

U.S. Department of Energy, 72 ' 1.36 1957-82 Shippingport

Commonwealth Edison Co., '210 95 0.45 1960-78 Dresden-1 'Decommissioning of Elk River was completed in 1974. SOURCES' R. Mark Pocta, "Report on the Decommissioning Costs of Pacific,Gas and Electric Company for Humboldt Bay Power Pia:it Unit No. 3," California PublicUtilities Commission, June 19b5; OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, "Compendium on Dec ommis.ioning Activitiesin NEA Member Countries," Pans, January 1985; "DOE Says Decommissioning Ccsts on Target Despite Shippingport Increase,"Nuckonto Week, April 25, 1985; Public Citizen/Environmental Action,"Dismantling the Myths About Nuclear Decommis- sioning," Washington, D.C., April 1985.

145 Decomrissionitzg Nuclear Power Plants (.131.) will require. If costs can be scaled based Current facilities will continue to raise on reactor size, thendespite the short- their rates, and the start-up costs of new sighted savings being realized by keep- sites for both low- and high-level wastes ing the reactor pressure vessel intact are likely to be high 41 during transportthe Shippingport ex- Additional expenditures may be re- perience indicates that decommission- quired to entice communities to ac :ept ing one of today's large reactors could radioactive wastes. The United Kingdom cost over $1 billion. is seriously reevaluating itsdisposal- *4 Andre Cregut of the French Atomic facility siting policies following vehe- Energy Commission estimates that utili- :111 ment local opposition to a plan for using 5$, ties will not decommission plants until an abandoned salt mine at Billingham in the cost can be brought down to about northeast England. Lewis Roberts, di- 15 percent of initial investment, com- rector of the Atomic Energy Research paredith the 40 percent it is likely to Establishment at Harwell, recently ac- costusingcurrentlyavailabletech- knowledged that the agency may have to niques. At 40 percent of investment, de- adopt the French and Japanese practice commissioning costs would approach $1 of compensating communities for host- billion for the plants that have recently ing repositories.42 gone into operation. Whether the e;..- Labor expenses may also rise as efforts pense can be lowered is the crucial, but are made to minimize the radiation unanswered, question.40 doses that personnel receive. Replace- Because reactor designs have changed ment of steam generators at the Surry so much over the years, very few coun- reactor in Virginia, for example, re- triesperhaps only France and Canada ;,;.; will be able to design a uniform de- quired more than three times as many commissioning system. Not only have worker-hoursasexpected.Current different countries adopted different regulations limit exposure of nuclear in- reactor technologies, but within some dustry workers to five rems per year, 10 nation- the nuclear industry has dabbled times as much as permitted for an aver- in most of the systems available. Nine age person. Many health experts would different designs are represented among like the ceiling to be lowered, a move the 20 power reactors that have been that would significantly increase labor shut down. (See Table 7-4.) Just as nu- costs during decommissioning.43 clear construction costs continued to The number of years a reactor re- multiply in the United States because mains in storage prior to dismantlement each utility wanted a custom-built plant, is a variable that is frequently over- decommissioning cost estimates and ex- looked when formulating decommis- perience gained may not be transferable sioning :ost tshmates. Providing on-site an.ong utilities. rvr''..:ance for several decades is ex- One of t1-.e largest components c de- pensive, Tne bill will include salaries for commissioning costs will be waste dis- a skeleton staff, radiation monitoring posal, up to 40 percent of the total ac- equipment, and, if a high-level waste re- cording to some industry analysts. In the 'ository is not available, maintenance of last decade, the cost of shallow-land fuel storage facilities. Postponement of burial of a 55-gallon drum of low-level decommissioning will also result in the wastes has increased more than tenfold :oss of staff most familiar with the plant in the United States. Waste disposal and require excellent recordkeeping to costs have tripled in just the past five inform the future crew el the reactor's years and are likely to increase steadily. intrict cies and itsoperating history.

146 ire (132) State of the World-1986 Only seven of the reactors listed in Although hundreds of nuclear power Table 7-4 are scheduled to be disman- plants have been erected around the tled prior to 1995. world, the cost of decommissioning As experience is gained in decommis- them is highly uncertain. The bill for all sioning and waste handling, regulations the plants now in service could totalsev- are likelyto become more strict.If eral hundred billion dollars. The experi- worker radiation exposure limits are encc ;-!ecessary to clarify these cost esti- lowered, if residual radioactivity stan- mates issadly lacking and urgently dards are set levels more stringent required. in order to be manageable,ex- than predicted, or if transportation and penses of this magnitude must be bud- disposal rules are tightened, costs could geted for, they cannot be allowed to rise substantially. come as a surprise. Table 7-4. Nuclear Power Reactors No Longer in Operation, 1985 Year Number of Plant Years Entered Plant Reactor Reactor Location Service Operated Capacity Type' (megawatts) Shippingport Pennsylvania 1957 25 72 PWR G-2, Marcoule France 1958 22 45 GCR G-3, Marcoule France 1959 24 45 GCR Dounreay United Kingdom 1959 18 14 FBR Dresden-1 Illinois 1960 18 210 BWR

Indian Po'nt-1 New York 1962 12 257 PWR Windscalf United Kingdom 1962 19 33 AGR Chinon-A. France 1963 10 70 GCR Humboldt Bay California 1963 13 65 BWR JPDR, Tokai japan 1963 13 12 BWR

Agesta Sweden 1963 11 12 PI-LWR Garigliano Italy 1964 14 160 BWR Karlsruhe West Germany 1965 19 58 PWR Gundremmingen West Germany 1966 11 250 BWR Lucens Switzerland 1967 2 7 HWGCR

Peach Bottom Pennsylvania 1967 7 40 HTGR Lingen West Germany 1968 9 256 BWR Gentilly-1 Canada 1970 9 250 CANDU NPP-Al Czechoslovakia 1972 7 110 HWGCR Niederaichbach West Germany 1972 2 100 HWGCR 'Reactor types, listed in crder they appear in table: Pressurized Water, Gas Cooled, Fast Breeder; Boiling Water, Advanced Gas; Pressurized Heavy Water, Heavy Water Moderated GCR; High Temperature Gas Cooled, Graphite Moderated; and Heavy Water Moderated BWR. SOURCES' OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, "Compendium on Decommissioning Activities in NEA Member Countries," Paris, January 1985;, Titemational Atomic Energy Agency, "The Methodology and Technol- ogy of Decommissioning NucleiFacilities" (draft), Annex 2, Vienna, May 1985.

147 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (133) AFFORDING THE FUTURE When the time comes to decontaminate and dismantle the plant, the com- The lack of reliable cost estimates makes pany will probably need to sell "decom- financial planting for decommissioning missioning bonds" to raise the required extremely difficult. But some mechanism cash. Borrowing capital for unproduc- needs to be put in place to assure that tive purposes promises to be expensive, there will be enough money available, at as investors will require a high return to the right time, to do the job. When a cover the perceived risks. A retired and reactor stops producing power, it also highly radioactive nuclear plant is not stops earning money for its owner. To likely to be regarded as secure collateral, ensure that the company can pay for de- particularly if the owner is already ex- commissioning, funds need to be set periencingfinancialdifficulties. The aside during the years that the reactor is market value of several U.S, utility com- operating. pany stocks and bonds, those with heavy A variety of mechanisms been nuclear commitments, is already less proposed and, just like an insurance pol- than 50 percent of book value, reflecting icy, the plans providing the greatest as- lack of investor confidence.* surance are the most expensive. One way of guaranteeing that funds will be available in the future isto deposit A retired and highly radioactive money in an interest-bearing savings account before the reactor enters service. nuclear power plant is not likely to Interest paymentswillincreasethe he regarded as secure collateral. yearly balance and if the initial cost estimate is correct, or if additional deposits are made when estimates are updated, Bond purchasers will undoubtedly be sufficient funds be availat e. Th,s found if the rate is attractive enough, but strategy is the most expensive and re- ultimately the risk may have to be as- quires utility customers to pay up front sumed by the federal government or by for an expense the company will not pools of electric utilities. The $2.25-bil- incur for several decades.** lion bond default by the Washington Making periodic deposits into a de- Public Power Supply System ;n 1983 has commissioning fund is another way of made investors especially wary. Munici- accruing the money. Customers can be paland cooperativeutilitieswholly charged a fee, based on the amount of financed by tax-exempt bonds will be electricity they use,thatiscollected particularly vulnerable because there is monthly and put into a decommission- no equity cushion provided by share- ing account. Utilities prefer to keep track holders, as there is in private utilities.*' of this amount on paper but to use the If, on the other hand, money is pro- funds for general purposes, including vided by deposits begun when the plant the construction of more nuclear plants, enters service, if the account is managed instead of putting them aside for future by professional investors, and if the fund decommissioning. This allows the utility is allowed to grow until it is needed, the to bypass capital markets and keep debt utility's financial situation will not be so payments low, but the method has been precarious at plant retirement. This is termed "phantom funding" by some ob- especially true if the utility has con- servers because the money only exists on ducted detailed evaluations of the cost of paper and is not readily available to the decommissioning at regular intervals during the plant's life. Periodic adjust-

148 Tr:

State of the World-1986 ments of annual deposit amounts will The least secure method of providing undoubtedly be necessary a:, more is decommissioning fundsistocollect learned about the costs and techniques them from customers or shareholders at of the procedure. the time they are needed. This strategy In a study conducted for the U.S. Nu- puts off until the last possible moment clear Regulatory Commission, Univer- the acquisition of debt that could total sity of Pennsylvania economistn. Siegel billions of dollars and provides no assur- concluded: "The greatest assurance of ance that the money will be available. theavailabilityof decommissioning Such last-ditch efforts are also extremely funding would be attained with an exter- unfair to customers who will be required nal reserve specifically marked and held to pzy for a project they did not benefit by a trustee for the ratepayers and the from. utility. In this circumstance, it would be In countries where the electric gener- virtually impossible for the utility to di- ating system is government-owned, such vert these assets for other uses and funds as France, the "when-needed" principle would be assured no matter what events, of funding has been adopted. Utility legal or financial, occur." Internal fund- managers assume they will be able to re- ing with no segregated account was quest funds from the national treasury ranked last on the list of funding alterna- when the time comes to decommission tives in terms of assurance.r9 their reactors. In this case, the burden is Even dedicated decommissioning ac- placed on future taxpayers instead of c 'unts would be inadequate, however, if utility ratepayers. The French utility a plant closes earlier than expected. If debt is now $30 billion because of the this occurs, particularly as the result of a accelerated nuclear construction pro- costly accident not fully covered by ingram, and decommissioning costs may surance, the utility would find itself with result in large government budget defi- insufficient funds. A policy to protect cits." Third World governments already against premature closure is a frequently on the edge of insolvency will be particu- proposed remedy. This is a sound strat- larly hard-pressed to foot the decommis- egy if there are companies willing to pro- sioning bill. vide such coverage. Of the four retired commercial reac- Yet insurance companies are unlikely tors in the United States, only one unit to offer premature closure policies at had begun collecting decommissioning affordable rates unless the industry's op- funds before it shut down. The Pacific erational record improves. Of the reac- Gas and Electric Company, owner of the tors that are currently retired and await- Humboldt Bay reactor, collected $500,- ing decommissioning, none operated for 000 in decommissioning funds during the full 30 years used in utility calcula- the four years prior to plant shutdown. tions. Nuclear plants are more compli- This lack of financial planning in three catedthan other electric generating instances, and the late and inadequate plants, are subject to more design regu- implementation in the fourth, has led to lations, and have up to 10 times as many mandatory periodic deposits into exter- pipes, valves, and pumps.49 More parts nal accounts in eight states: California, and a harsher cperating environment Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Missis- mean a greater number of potential sippi, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, breakdowns. Two thirds of the commer- and Vermont.91 cial reactors retired to date produced Similar plans have been adopted else- power for less than 15 years, as Table where. In Sweden, each reactor operator 7-4 documents. pays an annual fee to the government.

149 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (135) The funds are invested in separateac- neered the development of this energy counts from which the utilities can bor- source. And their skill at managing the row money to pay for decommissioning. expense will be closely watched. Nations Less formal arrangements exist in West with newer reactors will learn valuable Germany and Switzerland.52 lessons, and countries that have not yet Although many nations do not set built such plants will be better able to asidemoneyfordecommissioning, assess the true lifetime costs of nuclear funds for high-level waste disposal are energy. collected in a dozen North American and The United States has built the most European countries. In all cases, the nuclear reactors to date, with the Soviet money is paid to the government agency Union a distant second. (See Table 7-5.) responsible for establishing geologic Most utilities throughout the world are waste repositories. The fee typically financially unprepared for decommis- ranges from $1 to $3 per 1,000 kilowatt- sioning. A recent survey of 30 U.S. utili- hours of nuclear electricity produced.53 ties with nuclear plants revealed that 40 Setting aside funds for decommission- percent of the companies had not con- ing is essential in every country that has ducted site-specific studies of decommis- built nuclear reactors. Regardless of nu- sioning costs, two thirds were using the clear power's role in a nation's energy funds they had collected for other activi- plans, existing plants must eventually be ties, and 29 percent did not expect their scrapped. Decommissioning billswill current funding method to provide first fall due in those countries that pio- enough money to cover the expenses.54 :4 Table 7-5. Nuclear Power Reactors in Operation, 10 Leading Countries,1984 Share Share Tc...z1 of Total of World Number of Nuclear Domestic Nuclear Country Reactors Capacity Capacity Cmacity (megawatts) (percent) United States 84 68,536 13 33 Soviet Union' 44 22,706 8 11 France 36 28,015 39 14 United Kingdom 32 6,569 10 3 Japan 28 9,025 12 9

West Germany 19 16,127 18 8 Canada 15 8,617 9 4 Sweden 10 7,355 24 4 Spain 7 4,865 12 2 Belgium 6 3,467 28 2

Total 281 185,282 89 'Data are for 1983. SOURCES: Atomic Industrial Forum (AIF), "International Survey," Bethesda, Md., Apnl 17, 1985, AIF, "Midyear Report," Bethesda, Md., July 10, 1985, Eric Sorenson, InternationalEnergy Agency, Pans, pnvate communica-In, November 8, 1985, Department of Energy, Mines, and Resources, "Electnc Power in Canada 1984," Ottawa, 1985; "Electric Power Sectorin Spain in 1984,"Boktm Informatsvo Mensual de Unesa (Madrid), January/February 1985.

150 (136) State of the World -1986 Yet paid over a period of 30 years by lion. Mountains of radioactive waste will all the customers of a utility, decommis- be created, and dozens of waste disposal sioning bills are affordable. The average sites will be required. Aggressive, well- residential electricity consumer in the funded research and development pro- United States, if served by an all-nuclear grams are needed at both the national electric utility, would have been charged and international levels. some $55 for decommissioning in1984. (This assumes a total decommissioning bill of $1 million per megawatt of plant No country currently has the capa- rapacity.)Customers withinefficient bility to permanently dispose of the electric heating and air conditioning systems might have to pay well over $100 a high-level wastes now stored at a year, but those using electricity effi- single reactor. ciently would pay far less than the average. And the actual charges would be even lower, because no U.S. electric util- During the next three decades, over ity relies exclusively on nuclear power.55 300nuclear power reactors will be shut Commonwealth Edison, an Illinois down. (See Table 7-6.) Some of the utility, owns the most nuclear plants. Its reactors that have already been retired nine operating reactors provide 55 per- are large enough and operated long cent of the company's generating capac- enough to yield valuable lessons for fu- ity, and three more units are under con- ture decommissioning projects. One of struction. Thus an average residential the largest or most problematic of these customer of the utility would have paid should become an international test less than $25 in1984toward decommis- case, with the owner covering half the sioning. This charge may be acceptable costs and governments and research in- inaffluent societiesif fee collection stitutes from around the world making starts when the plant enters service and additional contributions in exchange for if the reactor operates for a full30years, access to the knowledge and experience but the amount needs to be explicitly gained. An ad hoc arrangement like this included in cost projections, starting at is now in effect at the damaged Three the earliest planning stages.56 Mile Island unit, with various U.S. utilities, the U.S. Department of Energy, and international participants sharing the costs with the principal owner in order to learn firsthand about the latest in A LONG-TERM STRATEGY decontaminationanddismantlement tei.hniques. More than30years after the first nuclear Decommissioning planning has reactor started producing electricity, a lagged far behind reactor development. viable decommissioning strategy has yet TheInternationalAtomicEnergy to be formulated. Even if reactor order- Agency (the United Nations research ing ground to a halt tomorrow, the inter- and watchdog arm of the nuclear indus- national -uclear community will eventu- try) did not hold its first meeting on de- ally have to dispose of more than 500 commissioning until1973,some19 plants, including those currently under years after the first power reactor was construction. If it cost $1 billion to de- built. The initial technical meeting spon- commission each unit, the totalbill sored by the agency was not convened would amount to a staggering $500 bit- unti! two years later. Yet by this time,

151 Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants (137) Table 7-6. Nuclear Power Reactors in OperationWorldwide, 1950-84, and Year of Expected Retirement

Planned Retirement After 30 Years Entered Service Reactors Capacity of Operation (number) (megawatts) 1950-54 1 5 198044 1955-59 10 600 1985-89 1960-64 18 1,971 1990-94 1965-69 34 8,692 1995-99 1970-74 75 43,821 2000 -04 1975-79 87 65,002 2005-09 1980-84 103 88,566 2010-14

Cumulative Total 328 208,657 SOURCE: Atomic Industrial Forum (AIF), "International Survey," Bethesda,Md., April 17, 1985; AIF, "Midyear Report," Bethesda, Md., July 10, 1985. hundreds of nuclear power piants were rather than the 40 percent considered being planned by utilities and govern- minimal, only to discover that with ments throughout the world. This bla- regulatory changes they were noteven tant neglect of the back end of the nu- that far along. The consequences of sim- clear fuel cycle has been replicated by ilar inadequate technical planning for nationalatomicenergyauthorities decommissioning would be not only everywhere. costly but dangerous. The biggest stumbling block for all Early knowledge of decommissioning nations with nuclear plants is the lack of requirements would also allow engi- permanent disposal facilities for radioac- neers to incorporate design changes that tive wastes. Although many reactor op- would facilitate later decontamination er...ors around the world agree that and dismantlement efforts. A simple plants should be dismantled as quicklyas concept that eluded manufacturers of practicable after shutdown, that option the first nuclear plants was the value of has been foreclosed until at least the putting a protective coating on allsur- turn of the century. No country currently faces that would be exposed to radiation. has the capability to permanently dis- Even a thick layer of removable paint pose of the high-level wastes now stored reduces the surface contamination of at a single reactor. Just as today's cities structural components. Limited experi- would not be habitable without large ence with neutron-activated wastes has fleets of garbage trucks and extensive also demonstrated the need to minimize landfills, the international nuclear indus- the amount of neutron-absorbing im- try is not viable without a sound decom- purities used in reactor steel andcon- missioning strategy. crete.57 The issuance of detailed technical Large, detailed savings programs to guidelines should be expedited so utili- provide decommissioning funds arere- ties can plan for the future. Somenu- quired. Dedicated decommissioningac- clear construction programs were begun cc,unts to accumulate the amount of with designs only 20 percent complete, money necessary to safely dismantle and

152 (r38) State of the World--1986 dispose of all operating reactors should Knowledge of what can be done to be established. And government tax make the decommissioning process safer codes that would deplete these funds as and less costly is slowly accumulating, they are set aside need to be amended. but efforts to expand that information Revenue deposited in trust funds and in- base need to be strengthened. The terest earned on that monri will com- temptation to use cost-cutting measures pound far more rapidly if tax liabilities in the first projects should be resisted. are deferred until the money is spent. Saving millions of dollars now could Allowing rapid growth of decommis- mean spending billions of extra dollars sioning accounts is in evk.-ybody's best later. interest.

153 8

Banishing Tobacco William U Chandler

Tobacco causes more death and suffer- The worldwide cost in lives now ap- ing among adults than any other toxic proaches 2.5 million per year, almost 5 material in the environment. This has percent of all deaths. Tobacco kills 13 long been known, but now it is feared times as many Americans as hard drugs that involuntary exposure to cigarette do, and 8 times as many as automobile smoke causes more cancer deaths than accidents. Passive smokers (those who any other pollutant. Protecting non- must inhale the smoke of others' ciga- smokers from cigarette smoke will re- rettes) are perhaps three times likelier to quire a marked change in society's treat- die of lung cancer than they would be ment of tobacco, one that could also otherwise. The smoking of mothers di- help eliminate its direct threat tousers minishesthephysicalandmental themselves. capabilities of their children, and in No country is yet taking action against many countries more than one fifth of tobacco commensurate with the cost it children are exposed to smoke in this imposes. The global use of tobacco has way.2 These statistics add up to a cost grown nearly 75 percent over the past that is increasingly viewedin countries two decades. In China, use has doubled. where the information is available, at In only four countries are fewer ciga- leastnot only as unnecessary, but xs rettes smoked now than in 1964. In the intolerable. United States, the percentage of adults Though the health consequences of who smoke has fallen from 43 to 32 per- tobacco are now well known, policies to cent, but even there 20 percent more avoid them lag far behind. Most efforts tobacco is used than when an antismok- to control tobacco are merely attempts ing campaign began in 1964, and the to control or color information about country still ranks third in the world in the product. Governments sometimes per capita cigarette use.' The direct warn people that tobacco is unhealthy, health costs, the health risks to passive forbid its advertisment, or restrict its use smokers, and the economic costs have in theaters or buses, though often the grown proportionally. effort is no stronger than the Japanese This chapter appeared as Woridwatch Paper 68, cigarette package warning: "For your Banishing Tobacco. health, let's be careful not to smoke too

154 .17,474Fi.

(140) State of the World-1986 much."3 No national tobacco control Trillion effort has been launched with the vigor Cigarettes of antidrug campaigns, or even of cam- 5 paigns against toxic chemicals, though hard drugs and chemicals claim far fewer 4 - victims than tobacco. Health leaders in government, international organizations, and public inter- 3 est groups have also failed in this fight partly because tobacco is tenaciously ad- 2 - dictive, partly because both governments and industry promote tobacco, but partly because the leadership of 1 health and environmental authorities Source: U.S. Dept. of Agrtculture has been weak. This conclusion is borne out not only by the continued high levels 19b0 1970 1980 1990 of tobacco use in industrial countries, but by the explosive growth of cigarette Figure 8-1. Cigarette Consumption Worldwide, smoking in Eastern bloc countries and in 1960-85 China. Yet the informational campaigns People in industrial countries smoke of concerned health leaders have at least twice as much as people in the Third succeeded in getting many analysts to World. Although Chinese men smoke al- recognize that tobacco is a high-priority, most as much as Western men do, the worldwide public health problem. And one that needs stronger medicine.4 negligible amount of smoking by Chi- nese women means that country does ,4 not rank very high in overall per capita consumption. Nevertheless, China uses a quarter of the world's tobacco.6 Tobacco is increasingly grown near THE EPIDEMIC SPREADS where itis consumed. China isthe Smoking is an epidemic growing at 2.1 world's leading producer, using allit percent per year, faster than world pop- grows. The United States, India, the So- ulation. (See Figure 8-1.) Growth in to- viet Union, ant'Brazil rank second bacco use slowed briefly in the early through fifth, with all but the Soviet eighties, primarily for economic reasons, Union being major exporters. Other but is resuming its rapid increase. Over major Third World exporters include a billion people now smoke, consuming Zimbabwe and Malawi.? almost 5 trillion cigarettes per year, an Change in tobacco use can be mea- average of more than half a pack a day. sured in two ways: changes in the use of Even in the United States, where smok- tobacco products, in absolute or per ing prevalencethe portion of a popula- capita terms, and changes in smoking tion who smokehas declined, the 20 prevalence. Measuring the latter is often percent increase in tobacco use since preferred by health educators as a sign 1964 indicates that those who smoke of progress toward their primary goal, now smoke more heavily.5 which is to get smokers to quit and non- Greece leads the world in per capita smokers not to start. Prevalence also cigarette consumption. (See Table 8-1.) provides an index of a key goal of to- Japanese, Americans, Canadians, Yugo- bacco control policyto make smoking slays, and Poles follow close behind. socially unacceptable. 155 Banishing Tobacco (.14 Table 8-1. Cigarette Use in Selected risks increase in proportion to total Countries, 1984 amount of tobacco used.9 Moreover, the quantity of cigarettes smoked, when Change in consideredalongwith Cigarette smoker-non- Total smoker interaction and room ventilation Use Consumption Country rates, provides a measure of passive Per Capita Since 1975' smoking. (percent In 63 countries, total cigaretteuse in- of world creased between 1975 and 1985. Half average) (percent) the global increase in tobaccouse in the Greece 237 + 25 last decade has occurredin China, Japan 232 + 6 though the Chinese represent onlyone United States 227 0 fifth of the world's people. Therest of Poland 216 + 3 the Third World, 54 percent of all hu- Australia 203 mans, accounted for a little less than a + 9 third of the increase. Consumption in South Korea 186 4- 45 the West and in Eastern bloc nations in- East Germany 167 + 23 creased in rough proportion to their Italy 162 4- 17 shares of the world population.9 United Kingdom 152 27 In the second measure of change in Soviet Union 150 + 8 usesmoking prevalenceWesternna- tions have seen encouraging reductions Fr: ,ice 145 + 6 during the last decade. In the United Philippines 130 + 24 Kingdom, the percentage of males who Finland 128 +8 smoke dropped by more than 25per- Sweden 124 3 cent. In the Netherlands and the United Egypt 119 +138 States, the equivalent reductionswere Brazil 104 + 17 more than a third. And in Norway, a nation often cited as having a modelto- China 102 + 85 bacco policy because it completely bans Mexico 77 + 10 advertising, a one-fifth reduction in India 56 + 33 smoking among men withsome higher Kenya 37 4- 48 educativn has been reported, though 42 Zimbabwe 35 35 percent of men still smoke.'° (See Table 8-2.) Bangladesh 19 + 29 In fact, rates of smoking remain quite 'End points are three-year averages. high among men all around the world. some: Worldwatch Institute, denved from U.S. In Department of Agriculture data, from United Na- Bangladesh, two thirdsof men tions, World Population and Its Age-Sex Composition by smoke, spending on average 5 percent of Country (New York: 1980), and from Population their household income on tobacco. In Reference Bureau, 1984 World Population Data Sheet Czechoslovakia, the prevalence figure is (Washington, D.C.: 1984). 57 percent; in south-central European But the absolute quantity of tobacco Russia, two thirds of adult males smoke. Smoking among women, on the otlit.r used provides an essential measure of hand, remains very low inmany coun- total health costs that a szciety must tries, including China, Bangladesh. and bear. Indeed, the total number of ciga- most of the Third World. Teenage girls rettes smoked over a lifetime is a more in the United States, however,now important health index than cigarettes smoke more than boys do." used per day at any given time. Health One ironic result 9f campaigns to re- 156 (142) State of the World-4986 Table 8-2. Prevalence of Smoking Among seen in India, where chewingand oral Men and Women in Selected Countries, canceris common.12 Circa 1980 Smoking prevalence among young people is changing, sometimes for the Country Men Women All Adults better, other times not. Although Ameri- (percent) can, British, Norwegian, and Swedish children appear to be starting this habit Poland 70 30 50 later in life as well as being less likely to Brazil 63 33 48 smoke, this is not the case elsewhere. Ireland 54 36 45 More young people than adults smoke in Canada 44 36 40 Eastern bloc countries, Canada, and Japan 66 14 40 Egypt. In some schools surveyed in San- tiago, Chile, two thirds of the students Bangladesh 67 1 37 smoked. Even in developing societies Netherlands 41 33 37 amongPolynesians, France 49 25 37 for example smoking rates reach levels exceeding 50 Australia 40 31 36 Norway 42 30 36 percent in children. Ironically, in the United Kingdom, a quarter of the chil- United Kingdom 38 33 36 dren surveyed in one study reported Italy 54 17 35 being given their first cigarette by their East Germany 53 17 33 parents, or at least smoking it in their presence, before age 12.13 Soviet Union 65 11 33 United States 35 30 32 Measuring smoking by educational level also reveals trends with important implications for policymaking. There is China 56 1 29 Sweden 31 26 28 an inverse relationship between educa- India 46 <1 24 tional level and smoking in the United Greece 41 2 21 Percent Egypt 40 1 21 Who Smoke SOURCE. Woridwatch Institute, based on studies of 60 prevalence in each country as reported in various Source: Remington et al ,JAMA, medical journals and governmental publ;cations. May 24/31, 1985 duce smoking in the ab -nce of a more general effort to control tobacco has 40 - been the marked increase in the use of "smokeless"tobacco.Theuse of "chew" or "snuff" in the United States has increased by over 40 percent in the 20 - last two decades. Much of the new interest in these forms of tobacco comes from teenage boys who like the stimulus of the nicotine, perhaps feel "grown-up" when they try it, and believe that it is safer than eocd smoking. Surveys inso.,telocalities 4° .2 A.e 0'6 c,cc.' 4t 4 show that 20-40 percent of high school 0 C) C.) boys chew tobacco or use snuff. Unfortu- nately,these forms of tobacco are Figure 8.2. Smoking Among U.S. Males, by strongly linked to oral cancer, an effect Education Level, 1982

1.57 Banishing Tobacco (r43) States(see Figure 8-2), the Soviet Table 8-3. United States: Mortality Due Union, and elsewhere. Over 60percent to Tobacco and Selected Other Causes, of U.S. adult males with onlya primary 1984 education smoke, while less than 20per- cent of men with an advanced degree AnnualShare of Total are smokers. This relationship appears Cause of Death Deaths Deaths to hold in most of Western and East- ern Europe. It is true for women as (number) (percent) well, at least in the United States, with Tobacco Use 375,000 18.8 the exception thatwomen who have Alcohol Use 100,000 4.7 only a grade-school education seldom Automobile 50,000 2.3 smoke." In these countries,at least, Accidents smoking thus no longer symbolizes fash- Use of Hard 30,000 1.4 Drugs ion, status, and upward mobility,but the opposite. Suicide 27,500 L3 Homicide 19,000 .9 SOURCES: Worldwatch Institute, based on National Center for Health Statistics, Health, United States, 1984 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin- ting Office, 1984), and on R.T. Ravenholt, "Addic- THE DIRECT COSTOF tion Mortality in the United States, 1980: Tobacco, Alcohol, and Other Substances," Population and De- ADDICTION velopment Review, December 1984. No avoidable condition claimsmore otine fits," scientific understanding of adult lives than tobacco addiction. Be- the addictive power of tobacco haspro- tween 2 million and 2.5 million smokers gressed slowly. Much more remainsto die worldwide each year from heartdis- be known, but it seems certain that nico- ease, lung cancer, and emphysema tine is the addictive agent in tobacco, smokers' disease, as it is calledcaused altl-ough oral stimulation and the physi- by their addiction. Additional thousands cal manipulation of smoking materials die as a result of fires caused by ciga- are also habituating to some degree." rettes and from cancers caused by to- The addictiveness of tobacco, inany bacco consumed as snuff or chew. Al- case, is beyond question. British scien- most one fifth of all U.S. deaths can be tists A.C. McKennell and R.K. Thomas traced to cigarette smoke." (See Table found in 1967 that only 15percent of 8-3.) teenagers who experimented with tobacco were later able to quit. Others,notably W.A. Hunt and J.D. Matarazzo, No avoidable conditionclaims have found that 75 percent who do quit more adult lives than tobacco ad- smoking start again within six months. diction. Quitters very often "crave" tobacco, probably nicotine, even severalyears after quitting. There is a withdrawalpe- riod of about two weeks, however, dur- Spanish settlers discovered 450years ing which unpleasant physicalsymptoms ago that tobacco was "impossible to give arise as a result, it seems, of the brain's up," even when they were reproached chemical dependence on nicotine." for "a disgusting habit." Despitecom- Withdrawal from tobacco differs from mon knowledge that smokers have "nic- that of heroin only quantitatively, and it

153 e. .--,::,57.:3,:t`-;,,,

(144) State of theWorld--1986 is satisfaction of the addiction itself that Relative-Risk leads some smokers to believe that to- Estimate of a Heart Attack bacco makes them more alert and clearer 8 thinkers. It is more immediately reward- Source: Kaufman, New Engl. ing than caffeine, for example, which 7-J. Med., Feh 24, 1983 takes almost 30 minutes to reach the brain when ingested as coffee. A "hit" of 6- Never Smoked =I tobacco reaches the brain in 30 sec- 5- onds .18 Cigarette smoke contains, in addition to addictive nicotine, hundreds of mutagens, carcinr,gens, and cocarcinogens, 3- some 4,000 other chemical compounds, and simple carbon monoxide. These chemicals, including radioactive polonium, not only attack the lungs but reach n the bloodstreamwhere they circulate, .44; pci) < 2525-35- > 44 causing or accelerating atherosclerosis 34 44 4ve (clogging of the arteries) and cancer in Cigarettes Per Day internal organs. Heavy smoking can precipitate heart Figure 8.3. Additional Risk of Heart Attack Due attacks when inhaled ea ion monoxide to Smoking, U.S. Males Aged 30-44 displaces oxygen in the mod. Concen- tries, and Australia. An estimate of such trations of up to 10 percent carton deaths worldwide due to smoking can- monoxide in blood hemoglobin can, not be reliably made, however, because when coupled with reduced blood flow of the complicating factors of diet and in heart arteries as a result of athero- life-style." This constraint may lead to sclerosis, starve heart muscle of oxygen an underestimate of overall mortality and damage or destroy the heart muscle due to tobacco use. that is, cause a heart attack. The risk is A relatedcardiovasculardisease serious at any age, but it is so clearly caused by smoking is arteriosclerosis of responsible for most heart attacks in the peripheral arteries. As in heart attack young men that some scientists have smoking acceleratesor called it a disease of smokers. The risk of andstroke, heart attack among young men who precipitates blockage of arteries. Block- smoke more than two packs per day is ages in the limbs reduce blood supply to over seven times higher than for non- muscles and can cause gangrene, some- smokers. (See Figure 8-3.) Fortunately, times necessitating amputation of vic- the risk diminishes rapidly in ex-smok- tims' legs. Peripheral vascular disease is ers, approaching that of nonsmokers also an important cause of death due to within one year after they quit." blood clots moving to the heart.21 Fifteen to 30 percent of all heart at- Smoking carriesspecialrisksfor tacks in the United States and perhaps a young women. One study of women third in the United Kingdom are caused under age 50 found the risk of heart at- by smoking. Smoking is also the leading tack to be 10 times greater in women cause of death from cardiovascular dis- who smoked two packs per day. The au- ease for those middle-aged or younger thors attributed two thirds of the heart in West Germany, Scandinavian coun- attacks in the group to smoking. A Cana-

15 3 Banishing Tobacco (145) dianstudy found that females who oped lung cancer. But as they took up smoked heavily were 7 to 34 times more the habit, lung cancer increased in pro- likelyto have a heart attack. Signifi- portion, after the lag of 20 years that it cantly, it also found that women who takes for cancer to develop following ex- both smoked heavily and took birth con- posure to mutagens. In fact, in 1981 trol pills were 8 to 39 times more likely lung cancer was as prevalent as breast than nonsmokers to have heart attacks. cancer in American women over age 55 The authors concluded that women for the first time.24 under 35 could safely take the pill with- International comparisons of lung out additional risk of heart attack, but cancer rates and earlier smoking habits only if they did not smoke. A review of show a strong correlation.25 (See Figure the epidemiology of heart attacks in 8-4.) Nonindustrial societies with high women found that female heart attack smoking rates have high lung cancer victims die on average 19 years earlier rates; Polynesians and New Zealanders thanother women.22 Unfortunately, have little industry, smoke heavily, and young women are the group in industrial have high rates of lung cancer. Trends nations whose rate of smoking is increas- such as these across varied sections of ing fastest. the world population also tend to impli- Some observers have suggested that cate smoking over industrial air pollu- because carbon monoxide seems to play tants as the cause of lung cancer. Smok- a role both in the development of ing may even explain much of the lung atherosclerosis and the precipitation cancer in nonsmokers. It should be of heart attacks, sa cigarettes can be noted, however, that lung cancer is a developed by recing their carbon function of lifetime smoking habits, not monoxide production.Studieshave just the use of cigarettes at one given demonstrated, however, that most ciga- point in time." rettes deliver similar levels of carbon Cancer of the bladder, pancreas, lip, monoxide, even when advertised (as re- mouth, esophagus, and pharynx can also quired in a few European countries) as be traced to the use of tobacco, though lower in carbon monoxide. Worse 3till, alcohol plays a strong role in the last two low tar and nicotine cigarettes may cause types. The use of tobacco may be linked many people to smoke more cigarettes with cervical cancer and stomach cancer to satisfy their addiction, leading to even as well, although these connections are greater carbon monoxide inhalation.23 less clear.27 Lung cancer is predominantly a dis- Smoking causes two other serious ease of smoking. Active smoking habits lung diseasesbronchitis and emphy- account for an estimated 85 percent of sema, referred to together as Chronic lung cancer. The claims of the tobacco Obstructive Lung Disease. Bronchitis is industry that some types of people are a condition of secretions in the large air predisposed to lung cancer and that passages of the lui.g system that reduces some unknown mechanism unrelated to the lungs' ability to expel germs and can smoking habits causes this condition are lead to infection. In emphysema, the air unlikely to prove true, because different sacs in the lungs coalesce and become rates of smoking in men and women less efficient in absorbing oxygen and over different periods of time produce releasing carbon dioxide. Smoking kills different rates of lung cancer. When 52,000 Americans each year through women in the United States did not Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease." smoke, for example, they rarely devel- The link between tobacco and other

160 (146) State of the World-1986

CigaretteConsumption (per person over Lung Cancer Rate (per 100,000 in 1980, 14 years old in 1960) ages 45-54)

2,000 4,000 0 30 60

United State! i i Canada

United Kingdom 1 Australia ___1

Switzerland 1

Poland I

New Zealand 1

Finland I Japan

France I Chile I I Philippines I 1 Spain I I Sweden 1 I Egypt I Source: U.S. Dept D of Agrtculture Thailand I Source: WHO

Figure 8.4. International Correlation Between Cigarette Consumption and Lung Cancer Deaths After 20 Years of Smoking causes of death must not be overlooked. yond health care expenditures. Lost in- Fires caused by cigarettes kill between come due to death and lost work due to 2,000 and 4,000 Americans each year. illness cost the United States $27-61 bil- And passive smoking may cause 5,000 lion a year. Thus, health expenditures lung cancer deaths each year in the plus economic losses in that country United States alone.29 Altogether, smok- range from $38-95 billion, or $1.25- ing causes 10-20 percent of deaths in 3.15 per pack." These totals do not in- Europe and the United States. (See clude the cost of tobacco itselfabout Table 8-4.) $30 billion per year. Nor do they include Several nations have attempted to es- the suffering borne by victims and their timate the direct economic cost of smok- families. ing. A major item, naturally, is health The economic costs of smoking have care. In the United States smoking's toll generated considerable attention and amounts to $12-35 billion per year-3-9 controversy.Policymakers concerned percent of all health care costs. Smoking with budget deficits sometimes view the claims a similar proportion of the total billions of dollars spent on publicly health care expenditures in Australia, funded health care for dying smokers as Canada, Switzerland, and the United an unnecessary expense. Some econo- Kingdom.90 mists argue that these are merely finan- But the cost of smoking extends be- cial costs that would be incurred anyway

161 Banishing Tobacco (1.47) Table 8-4. Tobacco's Toll in lives, China, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe, Selected Countries, Circa 1982 dedicate the equivalent of between 0.5 percent and 7 percent of cropland to to- AnnualShare of Total bacco, with the United States and China Country Deaths Deaths using slightly less than 1 percent in tl:;s (number) (percent) way. Though these percentages are West Germany 140,000 21 small relative to global resources of land United States 375,000 19 and firewood, in sc me countries they be- United Kingdom100,000 18 come significant. It' planted in grain, the Canada 30,000 17 land would be s.fficient to feed 10-20 Italy 97,600 17 million peopleassuming, of course, that producti to and marketing condi- New Zealand 4,000 15 tions could be created to encourage food France 77,000 14 production on tobacco land.33 Australia 11,000 10 Tragically, the cost in lives and money Denmark 5,000 9 can only be expected to grow. Sevz.nty- Sweden 3,200 4 three percent more tobacco is consumed now than 20 years ago, so without a sud- SOURCE: Derived by Worldwatch Institute from various medical journal and governmental den drop in smoking, lung cancer reports. deaths, for example, will almost certainly if smokers lived longer, became infirm, increase by 50 percent by the turn of the and needed medical care. This may be century. Many such losses will occur in true financially, but from a benefit/cost nations totally unprepared to deal with point of view, smoking imposes un- the new epidemic. But even in the West, necessary costs. where billions of dollars are spent ina If smokers did not smoke, they would fight to control lung cancer, fewer than live longer and probably enjoy a better 10 percent of such patients are cured of quality of life. These are the benefits of their disease. The prospects of surviving policies that reduce and prevent smok- for even one year are dismal. Fortu- ing. The improvements in health are nately, the relative risk of lung cancer for benefits in their own right, even if they ex-smokers, compared with people who do not lead to reduced health care costs. never smoked, diminishes to below de- Some economists also argue that the tectablelevels10-30 yearsaftera jobs and incomes created by the tobacco smoker quits. Thus, if tobacco use could business must be counted as benefits. be halted, this projection would notma- Even if other uses of land were not avail- terialize.34 able, tobacco's economic costs alone would exceed its "benefits" by more than two to one.32 Without a sudden drop in smoking, These costs, moreover, do not include the environmental and agricultural costs lung cancer deaths will almostcer- of tobacco production. Tobacco curing tainly increase by 50 percent by the consumes1-2 percent of all wood turn of the century. burned each year in Kenya and Tan- zania, and one third of all wood har- vested in Malawi, where harvesting far It follows, too, that the incidence of exceeds sustainable yields. Many agri- bronchitis and emphysema will growas culturalcountries,includingBrazil, tobacco use grows. At the current rate,

162 ,e't''- 7r "'

State of the World-1986 the next 20 years would also witness an most twice as likely to die of lung cancer increase of 50 percent in these diseases. as wives of men who did not smoke.36 Heart disease is far more complicated to (See Figure 8-5.) predict, for it is tied to hypertension, A parallel study in Greece yielded sim; diet, and other factors. ilar results. Lung cancer occurred over Assuming current trends, the already twice as often as expected among non- devastating cost of tobacco is certain to smoking wives of Greek smokers. Sev- increase over the next few decades. eral U.S. studies have now also shown Ironically, it may take the growing real- such increased risk of lung cancer for ization of this habit's high costs for pas- nonsmokers whose spouses smoke. And sive smokers to actually bring about in West Germany, a report on passive effective action. For no matter how con- smoking risks showed that nonsmoking vincing the direct costs may be to ratio- women with lung cancer were three nal thinkers, smokersbeing addicted times more likely than average to have may not be able to act rationally to solve husbands who smoke. Moreover, a care- the problem of smoking. ful examination of their workplaces showed they had not been exposed to carcinogens on the job.37 Ambient tobacco smoke clearly carries a risk of cancer in nonsmokers. One re- VICTIMS OF OTHERS' SMOKE cent effort to quantify this risk estimated Sidestream smoke--which wafts from a that passive smoking in the United States smoker's cigaretteto an involuntary smokerputs into the surrounding air Lung Cancer Deaths 50 times the amount of carcinogens in- Per 100,000 Population haled by the user. It contains several 40 thousand other compounds, many of Source: If:rayon:a, Brit. Med. which cause irritation and allergic reac- Jan. 1Z 1981 tions in the eyes and nose. Cigarette contamination of indoor air has been 30- linked to increased risk of lung cancer in nonsmoking spouses and to respiratory disease in infants. The scale of these 20 - effects has only recently attracted attention, and much more work is urgently needed to define their total impact.35 10- Passive smoking has been correlated with lung cancer in nonsmoking spouses of smokers in more than 10 studies. One particularly important study was derived .e; from other research designed to track of 0 6) 4. 0 .6, -0 lung cancer in smokers in Japan. This .40 00," 0c 44- work lent itself to a consideration of pas- 'IP sive smoking because careful records were kept of spousal smoking habits. o Wives who did not smoke but who lived Figure 8.5. Lung Cancer Mortality in Japanese with heavy smokers were found to be al- Women Whose Husbands Smoked Banishing Tobacco (749) cause, more cancer deaths than all regu- EFFECTS ON CHILDREN lated industrial air pollii s combined. The cost in lives may be as kiigh as 5,000 Tobacco's effects on childrenbegin- nonsmoker: per year, or one third the ning with exposure before they are born cases of lung cancer not already directly deserve specialattention.Passive attributable to smoking.38 smoking places unborn children at seri- ousrisk.Nicotine,numeroustoxic chemicals, and radioactive polonium Passive smoking in the United may all interfere with fetal development, States causes more cancer deaths and the fetus can receive these sub- than all regulated industrial air pol- stances through the mother's blood whether she smokes or chews tobacco. lutants combined. Furthermore, studies in both industrial and developing countries show that smoking by pregnant women reduces in- Nonsmokers are quite likely to have fants' weight at birth by roughly one no cnoiceaboutbreathing tobacco tenth.41 smoke. In the United States, people typi- In one U.S. survey, smokers f irth cally spend 90 percent of their time in- to underweight babies twice a _en as doors. On the job, some 63 percent of other women did. Research has found a U.S. workers are exposed to tobacco strong,inverse relationship between smoke, while at home over 60 percent of birth weight and levels of cigarette resi- all households have at least one smoker. due (thiocyanate) in infants' umbilical Altogether, only 14 percent of Ameri- cords. Low birth weight has also been cans escape being exposed to tobacco associated with tobacco chewingin smoke in the home or at the workplace. India. (Thirty-nine percent of women in The rest involuntarily "smoke" on aver- India chew tobacco.)Because birth age the equivalent of almost 1 cigarette weight is a key factor in infant mortality, per day. Some peoplea musician, for tobacco use seriously endangers infants' example, who plays in smoky bars and lives.42 liveswithacl- _1- smokerpassively Nicotine also may be the culprit in smoke the equivalent of 14 cigarettes a spontaneous abortions among women day.38 who smoke. Epidemiologist R.T. Raven- Protecting the public from the car- holt estimates that smoking causes 50,- cinogens in passive cigarette smoke re- 000 miscarriages in the United States quires urgent action. Increasing the ven- each year. This connection has been ob- tilationin a building appears to be served in Italy as well, where women impractical because is is prohibitively ex- who smoke miscarry in the first month of pensive. Reducing the risk of cancer due pregnancy at a rate of 2.4 percent, com- to cigarette smoke would require replac- pared with 0.9 percent for nonsmokers. ing the volume of air in the living space Smoking can also cause premature deliv- about 250 times more often than is cur- ery. Nineteen percent of the firstborn in- rently the normand use, therefore, fants of Italian women who smoke were 250 times the heating, cooling, and premature, twice the rate for nonsmok- pumping.48 The only certain way to ers. The rate of premature delivery in make indoor air safe from cigarettes is to the Italian study declined by almost 25 eliminate the source. percent for the sccondborn children of

164 (15o) State of the World--1986 nonsmokers, but it increased slightly for 8-5.) Each year, at least 3 million new.: smokers.43 bornthe estimated number of live Unfortunately, women in many coun- births to women who smokeare thus tries are smoking in record numbers, potentially handicapped by their moth- even while pregnant. Surveys in the ers." United Kingdom suggest that about 40 Children with parents who smoke ex- percent of pregnant women smoke. A perience much higher rates of respira- compilation by Ravenholt of surveys tory illness, including colds, influenza, showed that in nations as disparate as bronchitis, asthma, and pneumonia. Sweden and Chile, over a quarter of One British study published almost 10 pregnant women smoked. (See Table years ago showed that children under Table 8-5. Smoking During Pregnancy, age Jne whose mothers smoke more Selected Countries, Circa 1980 than one pack a day are twice as likely to get bronchitis and pneumonia. This Share of finding has since been repeatedlycor- Pregnant roborated." Women Who Infants In addition, the evidence indicates Country Smoke Exposed that parental smoking retards child de- (percent) (number) velopment. One study found that lung capacity in boys was reduced by 7 per- Ireland 36 26,000 cent by their mothers' smoking. If the Sweden 34 33,800 teenage boys also smoked, their lung ca- West Germany 32 211,700 nacity was reduced by 25 percent. The Canada 26 104,400 effect of passive smoking in childrencan Chile 25 31,600 last a lifetime because it delays physical and intellectual development, and be- Belgium 25 31,600 cause the longer people are exposed to Venezuela 24 125,200 carcinogens, the more likely they are to Brazil 20 715,800 develop lung cancer." Yugoslavia 20 73,900 Parents who smoke may also reduce United States 19 706,800 the intellectual development of their children. One study in Italy found that Colombia 19 150,600 children whose mothers smoked learned Austria 18 15,700 to read more slowly than children of Hungary 13 21,500 nonsmokers. In the United States, the Mexico 9 227,300 learning ability of 1 1-year-olds whose Japan 8 130,800 mothers smoke has been shown to lag by six months.47 Philippines 6 91,600 Bangladesh 3 135,400 Egypt I 17,700 India' I 96,900 'The percentage of women in India who chew ANTISMOKING EFFORTS TO tobacco may be high, however. SOURCES: R.T. Ravenholt, "Addiction Mortality in DATE the United States, 1980: Tobacco, Alcohol, and Other Substances,"Population and Development Re- When a recent medical journal editorial view,December 1984, and World Bank,World De- writer rhetorically asked "What if smok- velopmentRetort, 1982 (NewYork:Oxford ing killed baby seals?" he was making the University Pre:s, 1982). point that environmental and health ac-

163 Banishing Tobacco tivists do not accord tobacco the priority First, tobacco is strongly addictive. it deserves. He suggested that "perhaps Studies have shown that only about one the entire antismoking campaign be quarter of the people who try more than turned over to Greenpeace."48 Health one cigarette o'er succeed in quitting. and environmental organizations have Young people begin to smoke because n Dt moved to protect their constituents' of social pressure, curiosity, or a desire well-being with the same vigor that the to feel "grown-up." But pharmacologi- tobacco industry protects its pecuniary cally, tobacco acts like heroin in hooking interests. its victims. They rapidly become depen- Nor have governments assumed their dent on nicotine, and then smoke to sat- traditionalrolein protecting public isfy their addiction. health by acting decisively to reduce to- Second, smoke harms more than just bacco's threat. They move swiftly to re- the smoker. As indicated earlier, chil- move from the market unsafe medicines. dren of smokers get sick with respiratory They conduct paramilitary operations to illness twice as often as those of non- destroy fields of marijuana or opium, but smokers. Their growth and intellectual not tobacco, a far deadlier crop. They development as well as lung capacity can pay for expensive cleanup operations to be stunted. Exposed for decades to oth- remove toxic chemicals from the human ers' smoke, their risk of lung cancer is at environment. But not only do they fail to least tripled. Similarly, spouses and co- take these actions for tobacco, which is workers of smokers are at higher risk of often more deadly to both users and in- lung cancer because of smokers' addic- nocentor passivevictims, they even tions. support efforts to stabilize the tobacco Third, when governments act incon- industry. This sad state of affairs is possi- sistently in their management of tobacco ble both because the tobacco industry with respect to other dangerous pro- itself is so strong and because the oppo- ducts that they ban, they confuse to- sition to tobacco is so weak. Health ad- bacco users. Asbestos, heroin, and DDT vocates in general have not insisted that sire banned to protect public health; to- governments take appropriate action. bacco is not. This implicitly signals that They have relied instead on informa- those responsible for health consider to- tional programs alone to solve the prob- bacco to be different, and as normal to lem. use. Thus, teenagers can be forgiven for Equating smokers with baby sealsas not taking seriously a tiny health warn- victims rather than willing participants ing on shiny new packs of cigarettes. The helps clarify some confusion that con- problem is, of course, made worse when tributes to inaction on tcshacco. Many governmentsactivelyencourage the people assume it is enough to warn to- production of tobacco. bacco users, through ere media and with The point at which society decides to labels on tobacco products, of the risks take action on dangerous products is they take and then leave to them the re- sometimes arbitrary, but it can be based sponsibility for their own health. They consistently on estimates of risk. It is the argue that if users choose to take to- overall risk carried by addictive products bacco's risk, in return for the pleasure or rather than their capacity to cause addic- stimulation that it provides, that is their tion per se thatalong with economic prerogative.49 To some extent this is interest, attitudes, and chancedecides true. But the independence and volun- society's treatment of them. Coffee, for tary nature of this choice can be called example, is addictive but the evidence into question on three counts. that it causes cancer or heart disease is

166 (152) State of the World-1986 mixed. Some studies have estimated that ers. If smokers are to be permitted to coffee can double the risk of pancreatic harm themselves but forbidden to harm cancer; others have found no increased their children, spouses, and coworkers, risk at all. they will have to smoke in their back- Alcohol is addictive and carries heavy yards. Because control of tobaccouse in costs for society, though these are at private homes is both politically and most half as costly as tobacco. Having practically infeasible, the only realistic one drink a day can be tolerated without way to protect childrenif parents fail instilling dependency in most people,so to do sois to control the product itself. society permits its use. Alcohol, at least, Societies urgently need to examine does not quickly addict the majority of how to better control tobacco use, for those who experiment with it, as do her- the current strategy of informational oin and tobacco. Similarly, nonaddictive campaigns is not working well. The basis products that are carcinogens may be of antitobacco action since the mid-six- sufficiently low in overall risk to be per- ties has been information aimed at edu- mitted. Some artificial sweeteners, for cating smokers about their health risks example, fall above the level of accept- and discouraging nonsmokers from able risk, while others do not. Theymay starting. The campaign seeks through both be carcinogenic, however."' media coverage of scientific studiesto persuade smokers to quit and children never to start. It tries to change society's Absolute cigarette consumption attitude from a view of smokingas glam- has fallen over the last 10 years in orous to one that secs the habit as so- only a dozen countries. cially unacceptable. This approach has been tested in a few countries suchas Finland, Norway, Sweden, and, to lesser Most U.S. federal regulatory agencies extents, the Netherlands, the United draw this arbitrary line at a level of risk States, and the United Kingdom. It has of 1 death in 10010 or, alternatively, 1 been practiced de facto in many Eastern in 1 million people over a lifetime ofex- bloc countries and in China." There- posure. The risks from passive smoking sults are decidedly mixed. (See Table probably exceed this by a factor of 250. 8-6.) Active smoking, of course, exceeds the bsolute cigarette consumption has lower level by 100,000 because itcauses fallen over the last 10 years in onlya cancer in 1 in 10some would say 1 in dozen countries. Of these, only four had 5users. Thus, forbidding the sale of moderate to strong antismoking poli- tobacco would be consistent with the cies, while eight had weak ones. Reduc- prohibition of the sale of addictive drugs tion in countries with weak policiescan that harm the user and others. Banning be attributeu to economic decline, spe- tobacco would also be consistent with cifically to higher costs of imported ciga- the control of strong carcinogens with rettes and reduced per capita income. very high risk factors. A dozen countries have had strongan- Some people argue that individuals tismoking measuresby today's stan- should be able to do whatever they want dardsbut have experienced strong in the privacy of their own homes. This growth in tobacco use. Tobacco adver- is an acceptable, even admirable attitude tising is prohibited in Poland and restric- that favors civil liberties. But the limit to tions are placed on smoking in public, one person's pursuit of happiness begins yet that nation ranks among the highest at the point where it clearly harms oth- in per capita cigarette consumption in 167 Banishing Tobacco (153) Table 8-6. Cigarette Use and Antismoking Policies, Selected Countries, 1974-84 Bans in Annual Change Package Advertising Ban in Use of Warning Public Places Country Cigarettes Label Total Partial Strong Weak (percent) Argentina 4-0.1 Australia X Brazil +1.6 Bulgaria 0.2 XI China +6.2 X

Egypt +8.7 Finland +0.8 France +0.6 Hungary +0.4 India +2.9

Italy +1.6 Japan +0.6 X Kenya +3.9 X Mexico +1.0 X Netherlands 3.3 X Norway 1.6

Poland +0.3 XI Soviet Union +0.8 X Spain +1.6 Sweden 0.3 United Kingdom 3.1 United States 0 X lIncludes restrictions on smoking in the workplace. mince Worldwatch Institute, based on Ruth Roemer, Legulattve Action to Combat the World Smoking Epidemic (Geneva. World Health Organization, 1983), on U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricul- tural Service, "Tariff and Nontariff Measures on Tobacco," Foreign Agricultural Circular, Supplement 1-84, Washington, D.C., January 1984, and on USDA, Economic Research Service, World Indices of Agruultural and Food Production, 1950-84 (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1985). the world. Advertising bans and other countries, and tobacco consumption has antismoking policies exist in China, East declined by 15 percent since the imposi- Germany, and the Soviet Union, but tion of that policy. (This decline takes smoking nevertheless continues at very into account the large use of roll-your- high levels, at least among men. own tobacco in that country.) Sweden's Finland, Norway, and Sweden, in con- policy has been somewhat weaker than trast, have imposed advertising bans and those of other Scandinavian countries, required strong warnings on tobacco la- but consumption is down some 3 per- bels, and they have experienced better cent since 1974, about the time its policy results. Norway's antismoking policy is was initiated. exceeded in strength by only four other Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Soviet

168 ('54) State of the World-1986 Union have the strongest policies in the This analysis also reveals that the world. Bulgarians now smoke 2 percent strength of a nation's tobacco informa- fewer cigarettes than 10 years ago, while tion policy does not appear to reduce the Soviets and the Hungarians use 8 consumption, if income and priceare and 4 percent more, respectively. taken into account. The result suggests Countries with weaker policies but that the stronger the antitobacco policy, better results include Belgium, the Neth- the greater the consumption and the erlands, and the United Kingdom. These higher the rate of increase in consump- governments permit advertising in print tion. This "nonsense" result, ofcourse, but forbid it on electronic media. They can be explained simply. Countries that have negotiated voluntary warningson have had a problem with cigarettecon- tobacco products with the tobacco in- sumption are more likely to have taken dustry. Perhaps most importantly, they steps that they believe will reduce that have conducted vigorous antismoking problem. Unfortunately, the steps taken educational campaigns. Cigarettecon- to date have been too weak to achieve sumption has declined 20 percentor the desired results. Lack of time to take more over the last 10 years in th ?se na- effect could also be a factor, although tions. The per capita consumption level most policies have been in place for al- in each is below the average for indus- most a decade. trial countries, though well above the mean for the world. Only in the United Kingdom, however,isconsumption lower than 20 years ago. Some countries have had dramatic declines in cigarette consumption without STRONGER MEDICINE even trying. Drops in consumption of 7 Health advocates have generally dis- to 32 percent in Bolivia, Chile, and Zaire missed stronger medicine for dealing can be attributed to their economic diffi- with smoking and tobacco. The U.K. culties: Their antismoking policiesare Royal College of Physicians, forexam- among the weakest in the world. ple, the first governmental body in the Changes in income affect tobacco con- world to launch a campaign to save the sumption, though the strength of the in- health of smokers, has conceded that come effect depends on a country's stage banning tobaccoisimpractical. The of development. A statistical analysis of physicians compared such amove to 29 industrial and developing countries prohibition, and expressed fear that it suggested that, overall, cigarettecon- not only would be unenforceable, but sumption increases about 3 percent for would lead to criminality.53 Yet, there every 1G percent rise in income.52 This are a few effective ways to strengthen relation does not apparently hold for in- tobacco control policies without an out- dustrial countries, however. Consump- right ban. tion seems more related to price andso- The policy questions are how to pre- cial attractiveness in countries suchas vent the young and the naive from be- the United States, where price increases ginning to smoke, how to persuade of 10 percent appear to reduce con- smokers to quit, and how to protect the sumption by 3 to 4 percent. The largest health of passive or involuntary smokers decline ever in U.S. cigarette use oc- in the interim. When naive smokers first curred, in fact, in 1983, when the gov- light up without understanding the life- ernment imposed a tax of about 8 per- threatening implications of their careless cent of the retail price. experimentation, they can become ad- 169 Banishing Tobacco (155) dicted and,ineffect,"involuntary" them with an added impetus to quit. If smokers themselves. Psychology and smokers must get through working days medicine currently do not know much without smoking, then they are more about how to help these addicts, other likely to be able to quit completely. This than to recommend that they quit cold has been the result of bans in Minnesota turkey." and California.56 In any case, their total This dilemma may be unique in medi- dosage of carcinogens andcarbon cine: A dangerous drug clearly should monoxide should decline. And third, by but cannotbe banned. The economic stigmatizing tobacco use as dangerous strength of the tobacco industry is so and antisocial, the passive smokers' great that it can exploit for its own pur- rights movement can accomplish a goal poses the safeguards built into democ- of all antismoking informational cam- racies to protect legitimate minorities. In paigns: to make smoking socially unat- nondemocracies, governments may lack tractive. the credibilityand the motivationto tackle so insidious and pernicious a habit. And under both systems the social By banishing tobacco use from conditioning and chemical habituation places where innocent people will characteristic of tobacco make banning be exposed and placed at risk, the product a formidable task, one that thousands of lives may be saved. would take a long time. Yet the current "informational" campaign to control tobacco is falling behind as worldwide use increases faster than population. The passive smokers' rights campaign An alternative approach is inherent in focuses on the workplace, public gather- a new movement to protect passive ing places, and public transportation. smokers: banishing toiacco. This cam- Many countries now prohibit smoking paign, which stops short of an outright on public transportation and in theaters ban of tobacco sales, includes either the and auditoriums, though the impetus for prohibition of smoking in the workplace these restrictions has usually been con- and in public buildings or the strict limi- ventional safety concerns. In a few areas, tation of smoking to specified areas. The such as the state of Minnesota and the movement may be the single greatest cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles, success of the informational campaign smoking is now prohibited in public against tobacco. Its leaders insist that buildings (except in restricted areas) and despite the continued sale, advertising, nonsmokers must be protected in res- and use of tobacco, nonsmokersthe taurants and on the job.57 majority in most societieshave every Interestingly, nonsmokers have an im- right not to be exposed to the carcino- portant ally in the workplace: employers. gens, carbon monoxide, and irritants in Companies, at least in the United States, tobacco smoke.55 Such a campaign can are rapidly realizing two thing,. First, make three important contributions. most of their employees do not smoke First, by banishing tobacco use from and do not like to breathe the smoke of places where innocent people will be ex- others. Second, smokers cost employers posed and placed at risk, thousands of money. Surveys indicate that the combi- lives may be saved. Second, forcing nation of inefficiency and ill health as a smokers to give up their habit while in result of smoking wastes about 7 percent the presence of nonsmokers will provide of a smoker's working time. They also

1 7 0 (156) State of the World-1986 suggest that smokers cost employers at the United States was between 10 and 25 least $650 each per year.58 Smokers add percent. That is, one tenth to one quar- to insurance and cleanup costs, and they ter of the top 1,000 businesses in this reduce nonsmoker employee morale. group of five industries implemented American industry is responding ra- new policies that year to banish smok- pidly to the nonsmoker movement. A ing.59 number of well-known industries have A particular difficulty in banishing to- prohibited smoking on the job for most bacco is the role of government in pro- employees. (See Table 8-7.) A few even moting tobacco use. This schizophrenic refuse to hire smokers. The predomi- state of affairs persists not just in the nant trend, however, is toward banishing market-oriented West, but also in cen- the practice from the workplace. In tralized economies. Governments most 1984, the rate of increase in adoption of often own the tobacco industries in these policies against smoking for the publish- areas. China, the Soviet Union, and ing, insurance, finance, pharmaceuticals, India, f'r example, grow their own to- and scientific equipment industries in baccothey are not victims of some Table 8-7. Selected U.S. Corporations with Policies Concerning Smoking in the Workplace, 1985 Date Implemented, Policy/Companies Employees If Known (number) Smoke-Free Areas, Including Work Stations CIGNA Insurance (Philadelphia, Pa.) 12,000 Control Data Corp. (Minneapolis, Minn., and elsewhere) 28,000 January 1984 Grumman Corp. 27,000 November 1984 IBM 200,000 Pacific Mutual Life Insui nce Co. (Newport Beach, Calif.) 1,200 January 1984 Pratt & Whitney Aircraft, Government Products Div. (Palm 7,000 Beach, Calif.) Smoke-Free Except for Cafeteria, Lounges, and Conference Rooms Adolph Coors Co. (Golden, Colo.) 10,000 December 1982 Blue Cross-Blue Shield (Minnesota) 1,600 May 1985 The Boeing Co. (Washington state) 83,000 April 1984 Campbells Soup Co. (Camden, N.J.) 3,300 1869 Merle Norman Cosmetic Co. (Los Angeles, Calif.) 1,300 Raven Industries (Sioux Falls, S. Dak.) 900 May 1983 Unigard Insurance Group (Seattle, Wash.) 1,600 March 1982 Entirely Smoke-Free Johns-Manville (Denver, Colo.) 8,000 July 1978 Pacific Northwest Bell (Seattle, Wash.) 15,000 October 1985 Rodale Press (Emmaus, Pa.) 850 January 1982 SOURCE Private commu.ncations with company representatives, based on list developed by New Jersey Group Against Smoking Pollution, Summit, NJ.

171 Banishing Tobacco (157) cabal of multinational companies. The efforts, then, is at best a standoff in in- state-owned tobacco industry in China is dustrial countries and a rout in develop- being carefully nurtured and expanded ing ones. At the current rate, Western rapidly even as another part of the gov- countries will not see a major improve- ernment istelling the Chinese that ment in the health effects of smoking for smoking is bad for them.60 many decades, but Eastern and develop- These incompatible policies are also ing countries will see a rapid worsening. in place in the West. In the United It falls to world health leaders to bolster States, the U.S. Department of Agricul- their antismoking efforts. Unfortunately, ture administers a price-support system one lead agency, the World Health Or- to protecttobacco producers. West ganization, allots less than 1 percent of European nationssubsidizetobacco its budget to this problem, though it farmers with about $660 million in price calls smoking "the most important pre- supports each year. Ironically, the sys- ventable health problem in the world." tems protect small, inefficient farmers Its current budget for the mid-eighties who earn higher prices than they would has no funds for actively reducing to- obtainwithoutthesubsidy.More- bacco's to11.62 effic:ent producers, who could under- Effective policies fall in four catego- price he small farmers, are not allowed ries. The first, continuation of the infor- to compete fully. The result is that to- mational campaign, is worthwhile as a bacco cos., t'te user more than it would foundation for the others. Now that this without the s /stem. As tobacco use var- exists, at least in some countries, it is ies negative') in response to price in- time to build on it with more-stringent creases, smok:ng is being directly re- measures. duced by price :tupports.61 The second step is for those countries There is an even more subtle effect, that have low smoking rates, no indige- however. The tobacco industry, though nous tobacco industry, and a reliance on it loses the right to compete with small- imported tobacco products to ban to- scale farmers for more of the profit of bacco altogether.63 To do so would com- growing tobacco, gains the powerful po- pletely elim;nate the epidemic's threat to litical support of the small farmer. The them, placing these nations in the fore- added political clout helps counter anti- front of the campaign, much as the in- smoking forces. Moreover, it retains the dustrial world spearheaded the cam- appealing appearance of official toler- paign to eradicate smallpox. ance and even endorsement of the use of These governments have an economic tobacco, which in turn diminishes the incentive to actthe reduction of for- effectiveness of the informational cam- eign-exchange losses for the purchase of paign in reducing the social acceptability a nonproductive product. Only a few of tobacco. Any child about to start peopleinthesesocietiesare now smoking could be inclined to think that severely addicted, making national with- the U.S. government sees tobacco ise as drawal politically easier. Many African desirable. This is, of coarse the imp:cit nations fall into this category. Unfortu- position of any government that pro- nately, other impoverished nations, such motes tobacco production. Failing to ex- as India, do not, because cigarette con- cise this "subsidy," however perverse for sumption is already high. the industry, sends a signal both to the The third approach is for those na- young and to other governments that to- tions that must be politically pragmatic bacco is not so bad after all. to at least act to protect the health of the The overall situation of antismoking innocent.Experience inthe United

172

Vt_ (158) State of the WorldI986 States and in Poland shows that tobacco to the point of enduring withdrawal, can be banished from public buldings, and, most importantly, would discour- from the workplace, and from publiceat- age the young (with low incomes) and ing establishments and meeting places. poor from ever starting. Additionally, Banishing cigarette use in thepresence tobacco support systems can be disman- of nonsmokers should be considereda tled in order to signal that governments minimum level of protection. now wish to discourage the use of to- All governments can provide national bacco. This move would be productive indoor clean air acts for public build- even where such a step would lower the ings, workplaces, and entertainmentes- price of cigarettes. tablishments. United Nations organiza- These measures will not be easy,nor tionscoulddowelltoestablish will they solve the tobacco problem. no-smoking policies for their employees, They will not, for example, assure that especially those who work with children children will be protected in the home and the poor, for they are unavoidably against the smoke of their parents. They going to be viewed as symbols of moder- will not protect the newborn from harm nity and success, and therefore should as a result of their mothers' smoking. not introduce such a clearly harmful Parents alone can take this responsibil- product. ity, though in some cases their addiction The fourth level is to use thepower of makes them risk the health and the intel- economic tools to eliminate smokingas lectual development of their children. much as possible. Estimates of the cost New measures will not assure that of smoking amount to $1.25-3.15per smokers themselves will be persuaded to pack. A tax of this magnitude in the quit. Nor will they guarantee that inno- Western nations would reduce smoking cent young people do not become ad- by as much as 40 percent over time. Any dicted before they realize their new habit tax increase, even of 5-100 per pack, eventually kills one out of four users." would rapidly encourage light smokers But without more responsible effortson to quit in order to avoid the higher cost, the part of the health professions and would provide additionalpressure on public interest organizations, even these the heavily addicted to bring themselves efforts will be held in abeyance.

173 Investing in Children William U Chandler

Child health reflectsand determines lation growth has been buried under the the human condition. It results from and weight of recent experience. Through- contributes to social development. The out Africa and in desperate countries growth of soroeties depends on the qual- such as Bolivia and Bangladesh, food ity of its people, and population quality production and economic wealth are depends on health and education. Child falling furtherbehindpopulation health affectsgrowth, learning, and growth. Even with optimistically high work. Lowering child mortality reduces economic growth rates of 6 percent, half parents' economic need to have more the world would still earn less than children for the work and old-age sup- $1,000 per capita annually in the year port they contribute. And when mothers 2010. Thisrealization prompts the have fewer children, they are more pro- search for other solutions to poverty and ductive in agriculturethe fundamental ill healtha search that begins with the activity or developing societies and one causes of infant and child mortality. for which women are often most respon- More children die because they are sible.Whenchildpopulationsare improperly weaned than because of fam- smaller, any agricultural or economic ine. More children die because their par- surplus can be concentrated on improv- ents do not know how to manage diarrhea than because of epidemics. More ing fewer minds and bodies.' When pop- children die because their mothers have ulation and natural resources are more no wells, hoes, or purchasing power than in balance, the environmental effects because of war. They die because their and economic costs of overpopulation, mothers are exhausted from excessive deforestation, desertification, soil ero- childbirth, work, and infection. And sion, and water and air pollution are re- when children ai z 31,Inted and retarded duced. from disease and malnutrition, when The notion that economic growth can overburdened parents cannot generate improve child health and contain popu- wealth for education and development, An expanded version of this chapter appeared as then burgeoning populationsinade- Worldwatch Paper 64,investing in Children. quately prepared for life add to the deg-

1 7 4 (r6o) State of the World-1986 radation of naturalsystems. These projects that the Third World willnot stresses perpetuate drought, disease, reach WHO's infant mortality goal of 5 and famine. percent by the end of the century. Indus- Warding off death does not ensure a trialcountries,bycontrast,have decent life. Primary education is essen- achieved rates between 0.7 percent and tial for understanding better health and 2 percent.3 agricultural practices, but as the relatively literate countries of Tanzania and Bolivia have shown, education will not The notion of a "child survivalrev- compensate for lack of incentives in ag- olution" has taken root and is riculture. Agricultureisthe basis of spreading. ruraleconomies, butasIndia has shown, the Green Revolution will not compensate for infected bodies unable to make use of food. Clean water, as Analysts generally agree that about 17 many failed projects have shown, will million children die each year from the not compensate for a lack of under- combined effects of poor nutrition, diar- standing of hygiene. rhea,malaria,pneumonia,measles, A strategy of integrated development whooping cough, and tetanus. Virtually to meet "basic needs" all across the allthese deaths occur in the Third Third World demands not just tech- World, and half to two thirds could be niques that prevent death, but also plan- prevented with relatively simplemea- ning for food production, cleanwater, sures.4 The cause of death may be as- education, and, ultimately, health. It is a cribed to pneumonia, measles,or ma- strategy that can incorporate measures laria, though the "initiating"cause may to counter the drought through revege- have been simple diarrhea. To savea tation of desiccated lands. It is a strategy child's life from measles may be t..) lose of investing in people, one that could it to whooping cough. Nevertheless,re- truly revolutionize the prospects for gional studies and case histories dosug- child survivals gest that the combination of primary ed- Improvements made in child health ucation and primary health care has led over the last 20 years stand as an impres- to rapid progress. sive achievement, even in Africa. The Africa, the continent of crisis, has notion of a "child survival revolution" made great strides toward improving has taken root and is spreading. The de- child health. Its nations, however, still veloping world has cut infant deaths dominate the list of countries with the from 20 percent of live births in 1960 to highest rates of infant and child mortal- 12 percent today, though averages mask ity, and in recent years 1.5 million chil- drastic regional variations. (Infantmor- dren have starved to death. Only two tality and child mortality are defined, re- countries in the western hemisphere, spectively, as death between birth and Bolivia and Haiti, have very high infant age 1 and between age 1 and age 5, ex- mortality rates-10 percentwhile four pressed in percent.) Most developing fifths of Africa exceeds this level. Africa countries even accelerated their prog- also compares unfavorably with Asia. ress during the economically difficult Only Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, decade of the seventies. The World Kampuchea,andPakistanrankas Health Organization (WHO), however, poorly.5 (Twice as many people live in

175 Investing in Children (z6r) these five nations, however, as live in the BASIC PREVENTIVE HEALTH high-infant-mortality African nations.) China has reduced infant mortality to MEAS URES a rate close to that in some U.S. cities, Malnutrition caused by poor child fecd- despite income levels among the lowest ing practices claims over 10 times as in the world. It apparently has already many lives as actual famine. Coupled achieved the WHO goal of 5 percent.6 with diarrheal dehydration, malnutrition Malnutrition is an uncommon problem is the leading killer in the world, taking in China, and since the economic re- 5 million children each year-10 percent forms that began in 1978, agricultural of all deaths. It is caused by a combina- production has grown 6-8 percent per tion of factors that includes poor sanita- year, further ensuring nutritional suffi- tion, infectious diseases such as measles, ciency. China inthelast15years failure to breast-feed, and poor weaning achieved the most dramatic, and possi- practices, especially the failure to sup- bly the most important, reduction in fer- plement breast milk adequately after five tility in history. or six months of age. The situation of the world's children The most effective strategy for coun- today brings to mind an age-old ques- tering diarrhea, malnutrition, and infec- tionIs the glass half full or half empty? tionsincludesnutritionaleducation, An optimist would answer that the child breast-feeding, oral rehydration (revers- mortality rate has been halved. A pessi- ing diarrheal dehydration with simple mist would answer with statistics on fam- sugar, salt, and water solutions), and im- ine. A realist would be buoyed 1the munization. (See Table 9-1.) Progress in statistical improvement in child health, this strategy, known as primary health but sobered by the fact that, thanks to care, can be determined by measuring explosive population growth, as many progress in each of its components. children suffer and die today as did 20 A major component of a strategy to years ago. Our progress has only offset fight malnutrition is female education, the growth of our problems. both in primary schools and through ma- Table 9-1. Potential Reduction in Infant and Child Deaths with Proven Disease-Control Technologies

Lives Estimated Potentially Disease Deaths Interventions Effectiveness Saved (million) (percent) (million) Diarrhea 5 Oral Rehydration 50-75 3 Imrnunizable Diseases 5 Vaccines 80-95 4 PneumonialLower 4 Penicillin 50 2 Respiratory Infection

Low Birth Weight, 3 Maternal Supplements; 30 1 Malnutrition Treat Infections; Contraception

Total 17 10 souRcE. J.E. Rohde, "VV by the Other Half Dies," Assignment Children (UNICEF /Geneva), No. 61-62, 1983. (162) Slat! of the World-1986 ternal education. Progress in this area nificant progress in female literacy. In 1,as perhaps contributed most to im- 1960, 26 percent of the world's girls did proving the health of the world's chil- not attend primary school; by 1982, this dren. Female education is essential in figure was reduced to 17 percent. The hygiene, oral rehydration, immuniza- children not in school continue to be tion, breast-feeding, family planningin found almost exclusively in countries short, child health. The strongest rela- ith the highest child mortality rates.? tionship observed globally in reducing Malnourishedchildrenoften have infant mortality is female literacy. (See well-nourished mothers, who mainly Figure 9-1.) lack good information about the best Countries that have attained both foods for their children. Dr. Jean Paul lower fertility and lower mortality rates Beau demonstrated this in his rehydra- also have high female literacy rates. For- tion and feeding clinic in the slum of tunately, the Third World has made sig- Guediawaye, Senegal. He put his fingers Infant Mortality Rate Access to Clean Water Female Literacy (percent) (percent) (percent)

5 10 15 20 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 5075 100

Afghanistan Sierra Leone Angola Mali Ethiopia J Senegal Bangladesh Bolivia India Pakistan Haiti

Fanzania Braid Zimbabwe 1 Mexico J Thailand China Argentina Soviet Union United States3 France

Sources: UNICEF; World Bank Figure 9-1. Infant Mortality, Female Literacy, and Access to Drinking Water in Selected Countries, Circa 1980

177 } r ,

Investing in Children (163) around the skinny legs of a two-year-old weaning with poor food is the leading so starved he could not walk, or even child health problem in Africa. When smile. Then, reaching to the child's weaned, many children are given adult mother nearby, he pinched the excess fat foods they cannot chew or digest, or that on her arm, indicating that she is not are unnourishing." only well nourished, but overnourished. WHO and the United Nations Chil- The motJ,er appeared sad and ex- dren's Fund (UNICEF) have launched plained, "We never learned how to feed major campaigns to combat the decline a child." Beau suggests not that the of breast-feeding. Beginning with simple mothers are deliberately depriving their education programs through posters children of food for themselves, but that and radio broadcasts, efforts now in- poor weaning practices and infection clude day-care centers for mothers who cause the malnourishment.8 work on plantations and in factories. Day Diarrhea, especially repeated infec- care permits mothers to keep a child tions, reduces appetite and is commonly close enough to be breast-fed, but in- and mistakenly treated by withholding flexible work schedules and high costs food. The illness also reduces the body's often undermine such efforts. ability to make use of food. Diarrheal Educational campaigns are also under infections cause tile body to secrete way to improve weaning practices in fluids rapidly, and the combined effects Africa. A poster produced by UNICEF's of energy deprivation and dehydration Ivory Coast office encourages, "After are deadly. five months, more than the breast." It Poor nutrition and infection in Latin urges breast-feeding supplementation America and some parts of Asia increas- with "one food for strength (meat), one ingly begin with the failure to breast- for development (fruit), and one for en- feed. Bottled milk denies children not ergy (millet/rice). """ Some projects now only the best nutritional formula, but teach mothers to make a dry, sanitary alsoantibodiesthatfightinfection. mixture of nourishing food to leave for Human milk contains many agents that the child when they must be away. fight bacteria and viruses. Breast milk India's child health problems resem- has 3,000 times as much lysozymean ble Africa's. A WHO survey found that enzyme that destroysEscherichiacoli over 90 percent of Indian mothers bacteria and some Salmonellaas cow's breast-feed their children up to one year, milk does. In both urban and rural and that 85 percent still do so after 18 health centers in the northern Santiago months. Solid food supplements often area of Chile, surveys found that half of begin too late, only after 12 to18 all infants were fed breast-milk substi- mouths. Again, weaning practices are tutes by the age of two months.9 Similar the main problem." rates have b,-n noted in Honduras and Dehydration, a common factorin Venezuela. diarrheal malnutrition, is beginning to Often children receive unnourishing yield to the elegance of oral rehydration foodin ignoranceeven when ade- therapy (ORT). ORT consists of a sim- quate supplies are available. Breast milk, ple sugar and salt solution to correct the for example, should be supplemented ionic imbalance in the small intestine with solid foods after 5-7 months. But that results from diarrheal infection. African women often breast-feed exclu- The technique averts death in 90 per- sively for 18 months or longer. Late cent of diarrheal dehydration cases. In

178

1, (164) State of the World-1986 countries where ORT has been pro- tion coverage to all the world's children moted, hospital admission rates and would cost some $600 million to $4 bil- mortality from this condition have been lion per year.14 cut in half. Only about 10 percent of the Particularlyeffectiveimmunization children who are at serious risk of diar- programs have been conducted by Dr. rheal dehydration ever receive ORT, Jean-Hubert Thieffry of the Enfant de however. As UNICEF points out, even Partage organization it Thies region this low rate already saves a half-miilion of Senegal. Health calworkers, with young lives each year.1$ ORT is in such logistical support from a central supply demand in the camps of Ethiopia that area, visit remote sites in mobile units UNICEF has requested bulk packaging that permit quick travel from village to instead of the small, individually pack- village. All across Thies one sees long aged sachets: It is simply too time-con- lines of mothers waiting to have their suming to tear them open one package childreninoculatedagainstpolio, at a time. measles,whooping cough,tetanus, Throughout the Third World, health diphtheria, yellow fever, and tuberculo- workers are promoting home prepara- sis. The various problems of mobile tion of ORT mixtures. In The Gambia, units have been solved ingeniously with Julbrew bottles, which hold beer or soft methods that may find worldwide appli- drinks, are ubiquitous, and health educa- cation. tors have turned them into a tool for A major problem with immunization child health. They urge a mother whose campaigns everywhere is the dropout ch. d has diarrhea to mix eight Julbrew rate for the second and third in the usual bottle caps full of sugar and one of salt series of inoculations. Dropouts are due with three bottles of water, and to have to the inconvenience of returning for the child drink the solution. Elsewhere, more shots, as well as fears stimulated by posters and radio programs explain how parents can mix a fistful of sugar and a children's minor fevers and aches after the first shot. Thieffry reduced his drop- pinch of salt with water to save their children from diarrheal dehydration. Con- out rate by shortening the series of shots straints on such efforts can be as simple from three to two. Some fear that com- as a lack of poster-making skills and bining antigens in only two inoculations equipment, and aid agencies frequently reduces their effectiveness. But contribute this expertise to local health Thieffry's detailed analysis discounts workers. Table 9-2. Global Immunization Rates Controlling infectious childhood dis- for Infectious Diseases, 1980 eases has also helped reduce diarrhea- related mortality. For example, diarrhea Disease/Inoculation Children Vaccinated frequently accompanies measles. Theo- (percent) retically, vaccinating 75 percent of a Diphtheria, Pertussis, 41 child population for measles would re- Tetanus' duce diarrheal mortality 10-20 percent. Measles Only about 40 percent of the world's 37 Polio 43 children, however, have been vaccinated Tuberculosis against measles, diphtheria, whooping 54 cough, or tetanus. (See Table 9-2.) Full *Combined inoculation; pertussis is known com- coverage against the major childhood in- monly as whooping ...)ugh. SOURCE: Derived from UNICEF, Stole of the World's fectious diseases would cost only $2-15 Children 1984 (Ness York: Oxford University Press, per child worldwide. To extend vaccina- 1983).

179 Investing in Children (165) thisconcern.Since histeams were volunteers to supply end deliver vac- created in 1981, they have attained an 80 cines. In a few months, three fourths of percent coverage rate for the first shot the children were vaccinated. El Salva- and almost 60 percent for the second. In dor, during a lull LA its civil war, sent out 1984, no epidemics of measlesor immunization teams in a similar effort to whooping cough occurred in the region vaccinate 400,000 children.National served, nor were the-a any cases of polio campaigns are encouraging because in or tetanus.15 some countries, such as rural areas of Participationin immunization pro- Mexico, mobile teams have not achieved grams is encouraged by good advance high coverage rates.16 work. The Thies team visits village leaders six months before the scheduled date of arrival in a village. If the leaders con- Full coverage against the major sent to participate, the team arrives childhood infectious again the day before scheduled inocula- diseases tions to announce their availability. The would cost only $2-15 per child next morning, mothers and children worldwide. gather and the workers explain that they have a choice between risking the effects of a "little disease"the fever and aches India began extended immunizations that sometimes follow vaccinationor in 1978, with a goal of vaccinating all the "big disease"the all too familiar two-year-olds by 1990 for six diseases. results of polio, for example. The moth- Progress has been noticeable, with diph- ers are put at ease and made to feel com- theria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) inocula- fortable about returning with their chil- tions increasing from 6 million in 1981 dren for the second series of shots. The to 10.3 million in 1983. Polio vaccina- mobile team workers, wielding pneu- tions increased over the same period matic guns in each hand on two buttocks from 1.3 million to 4.4 million. Vaccina- at a time, effectively immunize whole vil- tion against tuberculosis increased frcm lages of several hundred people in a 13 million to 14 million. Unfortunately, morning. the dropout rate between the first and Brazilhassuccessfullyconducted the third doses of DPT and polio is 30 mass immunization campaigns, declar- percent. More unhappily, the annual ing the second Saturday in June and the number of newly eligible children totals third Saturday in August as "National more than 24 million.'? Vaccination Days." The government No country can afford to promote promotes the campaign through loud- ORT, nutrition education, and immuni- speakers and thousands of radio adver- zationssimultaneously asseparate tisements. Eighteen millionBrazilian items. Primary health care must be deliv- children have been immunized in this ered as a package. The effectiveness of campaign, leading to some dramatic re- the entire package determines long-run sults. Polio cases, for example, dropped success or failure. Many large-scale pri- from over 2,500 in 1979 to 10 in 1983. mary health care efforts in India, In- Colombia also launched a m- ssive cam- donesia, and th! Philippines have failed paign based on the National Vaccination to reduce infant mortality.18 Most suf- Day concept. It includes endorsement by fered from poor supervision of health the country's president, and mobiliza- workers. tion of the Red Cross, police, military, A relatively successful example from U.N. agencies, and tens of thousands of West Africa suggests both the potential 180 ,74;14::

(i66) State of the World-1986 and the problems with primary health quine, an effective antimalarial drug, to care.In The Gambia, village health feverish children during the rainy sea- workers are waived for six weeks, then son, particularly when their resistance is provided with simple tools of the trade: low due to depleted food stocks from the oral rehydration salts, antibiotics, band- previous harvest. ages, antimalarial drugs, aspirin, and A vast difference in performance, other curative items that villagers want however, can be seen even within this very much. They learn to recognize diar- tiny country. A random inspection of vil- rhea, measles, whooping cough, malaria, lages in the central region reveals that or cholera.19 some village health and maternity work- Workers teach mothers to administer ers fail to live up to expectations. Rec- the ORT salts for episodes of diarrhea, ords are not kept. Children with eye in- and not to wait until the child is dehy- fections, measles, or injuries are in drated. They make a lecorel of any such evidence. The maternity kits appear cases on picture-sheets, usable by illiter- poorly maintained or unused. Sterile ates, anti then follow up the initial con- razor blades are not replaced when the tact with a home visit. Workers ensure original supply runs out. Here infant that advice is followed and explain how mortality approaches 17 percentthe to prevent recurrence of diarrhea or national averageand maternal mortal- other avoidable problems. Difficult cases ity is over 1 percent. In the nearby Ara- are referred to a district health post semmi district, using almost the same staffed by more highly trained workers, approach, infant mortality is only 5 per- or to a regional hospital, which the par- cent. Better administration, and perhaps ents can reach within a day by donkey more positive tribal attitudes toward hy- cart and where a doctor is available. giene, acr'unt for the difference.20 Administrative problems have been relatively easy to identify. Poor record- The world has not invested enough keeping is due to lack of training. Ad- in primary care, population plan- ministrators acknowledge that six to ning, or development to reduce the eight weeks is not enough time to con- vince people who have never kept writ- absolute numbers of people suffer- ten information that it can be useful to ing. distant strangers. Inadequate training is blamed on shortages of funds and a rush to meet international goals and guide- Supervisors with two years of training lines. New workers, health organizers monitor the work of five village health say, would benefit from longer training. workers. They visit each village once For workers already practicing, intensive weekly to ensure that drugs are avail- retraining is attempted each year. able, records are kept, and preventive The absence of formal recordkeeping services are performed. If special prob- does not guarantee that the system will lems arise, regional medical profession- fail. Weekly visits to each village by als are alerted. This system enables the health supervisors have created a net- health ministry to respond quickly to any work that enables the national center to epidemic of measles or cholera, and to respond quickly to epidemics. In The dispatch an emergency team to give im- Gambia, measles and cholera outbreaks munizations or to take other preventive have been effectively contained as a re- actions, such as securing the water sup- sult of these word-of-mouth reports. ply. Malaria ipcidenre has also been re- Though primary health care has a long duced in children by dispensing chloro- way to go in The Gambia, the absence of 1 81

C Investing in Children (167) epidemics in that country is a powerful help implement the goals of the U.N.'s indicator that the system is working.21 International Drinking Water Supply The importance of building a founda- and Sanitation Decade) relates two sto- tion for health care has been shown in ries that capture the meaning water car- China. The Chinese system of "barefoot ries for human health. The firstcomes doctors" is a classic example of what can from an African woman asked whether be done to improve the human condi- she understood the importance ofen- tion. Since the fifties, these rural health couraging her children to wash thtir workers have spent most of their time hands after defecation, particularly be- delivering simple curative care. They fore eating. She replied, "I have tocarry also act as preventive technicians, in- our water seven miles every day. If I specting water and sanitary systems and caught anyone wasting water by washing providing health education. By provid- their hands, I would kill them." Thesec- ing curative services that the villagers ond comes from another Africanwoman badly want, health workers gain leverage asked how having water taps installed in in delivering preventive services.22 her village had changed village life. Her The record in primary health care is immediate response: "The babiesno mixed. Most developing countries prac- longer die."23 tice some level of primary care, and One quarter of the world's people lack countries such as China, The Gambia, clean drinking water and sanitary human Thailand, and Zimbabwe have had con- waste disposal. As a result, diarrheal dis- siderable success. Others, such as Brazil eases are endemic throughout develop- and Colombia, have impressive immuni- ing countries and are the world's major zation programs. UNICEF and WHO cause of infant mortality. Cholera, ty- have spurred the global movement to phoid fever, guinea worm, schistosomia- promote breast-feeding where its prac- sis, and intestinal parasites also infect tice is decreasing. And oral rehydration, htndreds of millions. Many people who vaccines, antibiotics, and progress in fe- must visit rivers and swampy areas to ob- male education have, over the last 20 tain water risk contracting malaria, river years, cut the rate of worldwide infant blindness, and sleeping sickness. Ex- mortality almost in halfan unprece- perts estimate that a sanitary water sup- dented achievement. Sadly, the progress ply would eliminate half the diarrhea, in- has been matched by the growth of natu- cluding 90 percent of ..:11cholera, 80 ral disasters and human numbers. The percent of sleeping sickness, and 100 world has not invested enough in pri- percent of guinea worm infestation, as mary care, population planning, or so- well as small fractions of several other cial and economic development to re- serious tropical diseases?* duce the absolute numbers of people Some observers have argued that suffering.Relative improvements are water and sanitation systems should re- satisfying, if at all, only to the fortunate ceive higher priority than other invest- whose children do not suffer and die. ments, including major reservoir projects,becausetheyfundamentally improve the human condition, while some reservoirs have caused serious problems such as the tripling of cases of WOMEN, WATER, AND schistosomiasis. Clean drinking water, AGRICULTURE unfortunately, has not been a high priority for many countries. Four fifths of the PeterBourne,presidentof Global rural populations of 73 African and Water, Inc. (an organization formed to Asian countries do not have access to 182 (168) State of the World-1986 clean drinking water. Most have no toilet Table 9-3. Availability of Clean Drinking or latrine. (See Table 9-3.) Worldwide, Water and Human Waste Disposal in 1.3 billion people lack clean water and Selected Countries, Circa 1982 1.7 billion lack adequate sanitation.25 Water plays two important roles in Share of Population malnutrition: Its shortage reduces not with Service only food production but also the effi- Clean ciency with which food is used. Con- Drinking Human taminatedwells,buckets, and pots, Infant Water Waste along with unclean food, carry diarrheal Country Mortality Supply Disposal disease to children. When women walk (percent) up to three hours to get minimal water supplies, water becomes too valuable for Burkina 21 31 n.a. washing, and an important defense Faso against infection is lost. The association Afghani- 20 11 n.a. between water and child health, and 'he scan direct bearing water wells now have on Angola 15 27 n.a. garden crop production and community Ethiopia 15 16 14 development, is second only to that of Bolivia 13 37 24 female education. The strength of this relationship has led UNICEF to dedicate India 12 42 20 a quarter of its global budget to provid Pakistan 12 34 6 hig simple water supplies. In Ethiopia, Turkey 12 78 8 water is the largest item in the UNICEF Indonesia 10 22 15 budget after relief. Tanzania 10 46 10 Even where available, most wells are open to contamination. Often animals are watered from the same wells fi om Honduras 9 44 20 which drinking water is drawn. Without Brazil 8 55 25 Mexico 5 57 28 aconcreteapron,bacteriallycon- 5 56 taminated water will seep into the well. Philip- 51 pines Piped and chlorinated water is generally Chile 4 ': 85 32 unaffordable in the high-mortality countries, but sealing and protecting wells, even in village settings, can be made Costa 2.7 72 97 affordable. Rica The water bucket is a major source of Portugal 2.6 73 n.a. contamination. Held in dirty hands or Soviet 2.6 76 n.a. placed on filthy ground, it can easily Union spoil a well. The bucket and pulley ropes Cuba 1.9 62 36 can be sealed to prevent soiling, though United 1.2 99 99 this requires some expense and exper- States tise. Well placement also requires exper- SOURCES: United Nations Children's Fund, Slate of tise. Put in a depression, a well can be the World's Children 1984 (New York: Oxford Uni- easily contaminated. If too shallow, it versity Press, 1983); Ruth Leger Sivard, Wo fldMih- laty and Social Expenditures 1983 (Washingto: D.C.: will dry up near the end of the dry sea- World Priorities, 1983); Pan American Health Or- son. Hand-dug wells usually dry out fast- ganization, Health Conditions in the Americas (Wash- est because they are shallow, yet ,rigging ington, D.C.: 1982).

183 Investing in Children (169) far below the water table requires expen- Toilets have been installed in Zimbabwe sive hydraulic equipment.26 since 1981. The laboratory promotes Becausewater contaminated with this effort not only with demonstrations, feces or urine is a major source of dis- but with simple educational materials." ease, toilets are essential. Diarrhea and Although healthy people can make roundworm each affect more than a half- better use of available food, reducing billion people, and clean water and sani- water-borne bacteria alone will not solve tation could eliminate almost half of malnutrition problems. If food produc- these cases. Ninety percent of all cholera tion in southern Africa, for example, cases could be prevented with adequate grows only at historic rates of 1.4 per- sanitation systems. Their design and cent per year while population grows 3.5 placement can be complicated, however, percent annually, more troublelies and costs are sometimes high. Toilets ahead. Southern Africa has not been must provide privacy, not contaminate self-sufficient in food since the sixties, groundwater, andlast10-20 years. and only the most optimistic agricultural Screened vents are required to remove forecasts foresee self-sufficiency before odors that will deter use. Pit latrines the year 2000. Cereal imports, in fact, meeting these requirements can be in- are expected to increase by 800 percent stalled for less than $10 per person in by then and to cost $4 billion per year in the Third World.27 foreign exchange. The prospect that Many water and sanitation problems southern Africa will be unable tocon- are behavioral rather than technical. But tinue food imports to meet future de- the use of these technologies breaks mands is, according to the U.N. Food down in the systems themselves. Ifa and Agriculture Organization (FAO), pump has many moving parts and is "too grave to contemplate." FAO esti- complicated or expensive to fix, the first mates that Angola, Botswana, Mozam- time it fails will be the last time it is used. bique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe Similarly, if toilets do not control flies will fall short of the investment capital they will be abandoned. needed to become food self-sufficient by Zimbabwe has long funded a unique a total of more than $2 billion per year. institution to develop solutions to such In fact, the organization describes the problems. The Blair Research Labora- currentsituationas"adoomsday tory has, since 1939, developed controls trend."29 for malaria and schistosomiasis, and de- East and West Africa face a similarsce- signed systems for clean water and sani- nario (see Chapter 10), as does much of tation. The Blair Toiletthe prototype southern Asia. Twelve of Afghanistan's vented pit latrineand the Blair Pump 28 provinces are threatened by famine, have become internationally renowned partly as a result of war. A half-million for their effectiveness and low cost. The people are at risk of starvation. Three latter is a shallow well pump, completely quarters of the children in Bangladesh sealed and sanitary, with only threemov- still suffer severe malnutrition. Food in- ing parts. It has no handle or leverto take per person there has fallen since the break. It consists simply of two pipes, early sixties, a fact that can be attributed one of which moves inside the other, and to falling food production per capita. two one-way valves. The pipes are plas- Grain production has increased at a rate tic and can break, lyit these can bere- of only 1 percent per year since 1965, paired in five minutes with glue bysome- compared with a population growth rate one who has an hour of training. Thirty of 2.6 percent. Farmers lack seed, irriga- thousand Blair Pumps and 20,000 Blair tion during the dry season, meansto

184 (17o) State of the World-1986 control erosion, and access to capital to and then they do the rest. They plant improve production. Moreover, prices tomatoes, lettuce, beans, bananas, and for food products are controlled to pro- other fruits. The gardeners usually keep tect the urban middle class. Analysts half the money from their individual suggest remedies that parallel those for plots and give half to a community fund. Africa: snall wells for hand irrigation, Some groups have built new maternities local reforestation projects, loans for and schools, and, with some help, have farmers without collateral, and better in- equipped and operated them.32 centives and markets for farmers 30 Communal garden projects are an Women must receive much higher pri- ideal target for development assistance. ority in water, health, and agriculture de- They provide women with not only food velopment. Women do over half the but also increased economic power, work involved in food production in which usually means increased status non-Muslim parts of India and in Nepal, anddecision-makingauthority.Im- and up to 80 percent in Africa. (See proved agriculture also means a better Table 9-4.)Yet extensionservices, environment and a long-term reduction loans,fertilizersubsidies, and most ofthedeforestationthatworsens other productivity improvement pro- drought. One African leader, whether jects are aimed at men. But with simple facing the reality of women's work or devices that can be produced locally, continuing the bias against men doing such as hoes, buckets, fertilizer, and effi- such jobs, uses the slogan "one woman, cient wood stoves, women's work loads one tree." Though the original Chinese can be eased and some buying power version, "one person, one tree," may be generated, particularly if they control preferable, it is a start.33 the marketing of their products.31 Particularly troublesome in improving Some women have found a way to im- the productivity of peasantsin agricul- prove their situation. They persuade ture, water supply, or household crafts their husbands to dig several open wells, is access to financing. Peasants often to erect a fence, and to prepare the soil, have no direct ownership of communal land or land of sufficient value as collat- Table 9-4. Share of Work in Africa Performed by Women eral for loans. Women have even less access, for they usually do not hold title Task Share to land that their families might own. One development group, the Interna- Growing Food 70 tional Fund for Agricultural Develop- Storing Food 50 ment, pro' ides loans to such persons by Grinding, Processing Food 100 offering a simple incentive: Failure to Caring for Animals 50 repay means further loans are denied. Selling, Exchanging Produce 60 Often the loans are given to a group, so Fetching Water 90 peer pressure is placed on individuals Fetching Fuel 80 whose failure to repay would jeopardize Child Care 100 everyone. The fund has a 99 percent Cooking 100 repayment rate, but only $1 billion in Cleaning 100 loan funds. And even that may be lost House Building 30 due to donor-country budget-cutting.34 House Repair 50 Integrated development on a scale Community Projects 70 sufficient to arrest declining living con- SOURCE. U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, ditionswillbe relativelyexpensive. New York, private communication, April 1985. Water and sanitation projects to supply

185 Investing in Children (171) safe water within 10 years to the third of Infant Deaths the world's population who lack it would Per 1,000 Births cost about $50 billion per year. Extend- 160 ing loans of $500 to some 150 million Third World peasant families for farm improvements would require an initial 120 loan fund of $75 billion. Interest costs, however, would total only about $7.5 billion annually, and most of this could be recovered. Most of these funds will 80 have to come from the developingcoun- tries themselves, but developmentas- sistance, appropriately designed,can 40 provide a large boost.35 Supporting small farmers to increase agricultural productivity and reduceen- vironmental damage is a good invest- < 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 >35 ment in its own right. Productivity im- provementsareusuallylargeand Figure 9.2. Infant Mortality and Age of Mother provide rapid payback. Loans to peasants without collateral can be made rela- available per child and by making the tively risk-free to the lender. And when survival of each child more likely. the funds for investment come from bi- Family planning has the greatest im- lateral or multilateral sources, theycan pact on infant mortality when it is used be tied to agricultural policy reform. But to prevent the highest-risk pregnancies. moimportant, investment in agricul- These include pregnancies to mothers ture is also a good investment in chil- under age 20 or over 35, pregnancies dren. For without a sound agricultural spaced close together, and pregnancies base, societies will be unable to grapple after a mother has already had several with overpopulation and economic de- children. (See Figures 9-2, 9-3, and 9- cline. Malnutrition, poverty, andeven 4.)Familiesthat minimize high-risk famine will spread. pregnancies lose fewer children andso do not need one or two extra as "insurance." The risk of infant death is high for very young mothers, whose bodies may not POPULATION PLANNING have matured enough todelivera healthychild.Princetonresearchers Poor families are caught in a trap: They James Trussell and Anne Pebley point need many children to help with the out that family planning is unlikely to work and provide security to parents in reduce early pregnancy unlessgirls old age. But by having more children, marry later in 1;fe. Age at first marriage families share fewer hectares of land, varies across Africa, generally being fewer liters of water, and less income per lower in the West and higher in the East. person. The only escape from this trap is In many African countries, girls may le- having fewerbut more productive gally marry at age 12. In Guinea and children. Family planning improves the Niger, for example, most womenmarry lives of children two ways: by increasing before age 17. In Senegal, Mauritania, the health care and educational services Mali, Nigeria, and Chad, most females

186 (172) State of the World-1986

Infant Deaths Infant Deaths Per 1,000 Births Per 1,000 Births 160 Source: PAHO

120-

El Salvador

80 ^

Chile

Great Britain

187 Investing in Children (113) Familyplanning'scontributionto popultion growth plays a serious role in child development is perhaps greatest reducing economic growth and living on the social level, where high fertility standards. The impetus for family plan- gets translated into reduced living stan- ning efforts in The Gambia, Kenya, and dards. Primary education, nutrition, and Zimbabwe, for example, hasconk from water and sanitation are essential to ministries of finance, where budget offic- child survival and development, but ers projecting future revenue needs be- rapid population growth can overloada come alarmed when they see where cur- society's ability to provide classrooms rent rates of population growth are and food. The educational disadvantage leading them. According to Nancy Har- of being born in a developing country is ris,formerly of International Family large :id growing. The World Bank esti- Planning Assistance, "Africa has made mates hat Western countries spend sg.9 30 years of progress in family planning times more per primary school student in the last five years. "4° than the least-developed countries. Yet, the school-age population of a country such as Kenya will double or triple by the African nations have been far year 2000. If such countries act to re- more duce population growth rapidly, thecost reluctant than the rest of the world of educating their children can be cut in to support family planning, and half over the next 25 years. Savingscan they are payikqs, the price. be used to improve the quality of education, reducing the immense gap throughout the world.39 The new awareness of African leaders The elements of family planningare is typified in a recent speech by Presi- well understood, but questions remain dent Kountche of Niger: "It is estdb- on how to promote and deliver it. Early fished... that our rate of demographic marriage and childbearing in the Third growth is not at all in step withour eco- World are inextricably tied to theeco- nomic growth rate. In other words,our nomic and social rewards that societies tendency to crzate needs is vastlysupe- attachtochildbearing. Without im- rior to our capacity to produce thecorre- provements in the status of women, in- sponding vital resources.. .How [can creased economic security for families, we] reconcile demographic growth and and food supplies less dependenton economic growth taking into account, of child labor, family planning cannot fully course, the sacrosanct regulations of succeed. But without effective family Islam and the traditional values which planning, efforts to improve the quality we have inheritt d? How [can we] free of life cannot succeed. our society from the socio-educational Changes in social attitudes toward sluggishness, from fatalism, apathy and family planning in the Third Worldusu- running away from responsibility which ally reflect government leadership. Most are obstacles to its maturit) and equilib- population policy analysts describepro- rium? Is it normal to imposeon a woman gressive government policy as the big- successive pregnancies which impair the gest factor in rapid fertility decline. Afri- life of the mother and that of the child? can nations have been far more reluctant Is it normal to inflict on our sisters in the than the rest of the world to support towns and particularly in the country, family planning, and they are paying the the almost inevitable obligations to be- price.Nevertheless,Africa'sleaders come old before their time, crushed have shown a growing awareness that under the weight of daily work and

I 0 0 (174 State of the World-1986 ravaged by almost constant nursing? is on critics to show how human needs in ...We should guarantee the future of Africa and Asia can be satisfied without our children."41 rapid and permanent declines in popula- Such support isvitalfor bringing tion growth rates. Africa's population growth into har- mony with its resources. If Africa had the financial power of Europe or Japan and the agricultural and technical resources of the United States, it could perhaps ENDING THE CYCLE OF support a quadrupling of its population. CRISIS Additional mouths could be fed by increasing grain production per hectare, The African famine has alerted the now at only a quarter of the level in world to at least some of the people who Europe and the United States. But no live on the edge between subsistence such miracle is in sight. Africa, realisti- and dissolution. But disaster threatens cally, must cape with peasant agriculture millions more in Bangladesh, India, Pa- and modest incomes for the foreseeable kistan, Turkey, and other parts of Asia future, as must Bangladesh, India, Pakis- and Latin America. In all, almost 1.4 bil- tan, and most other Third World coun- lion people live in countries where chil- tries. Government leaders who recog- dren die more often than adults, where nize this fact and incorporate it into their 145 million children are malnourished, national planning will be crucial to suc- and where more than two thirds of the cessful family planning in the Third people are illiterate. Any assessment of a World. child survival revolution must also ask: Providing family planning services ' Survival for what?" The answer is that would not be unduly costly. According children need development as well as to Joseph Speidel of the Washington- survival, to help make their lives more based PopulationCrisisCommittee, than a series of crises. family planning servicestoa Third Failed development efforts, however, World couple cost about $10 per year. litter the landscape like abandoned fac- He estimates that family planning pro- tories and silted reservoirs. Most devel- grams over the last 15 years have re- opment aid assumes that economic duced world population by 130 million, growth alone will improve health, nutri- entailing a savings of $175 billion in tion, and education. This approach re- food, shelter, clothing, health care, and lies on foreign aid, reduced domestic education. For about $4 billion per year, consumption, and increased savings to the world could provide family planning stimulate economic growth. Yet a coun- to all who want it. About $500 million is try like Malawi experienced 8 percent currently being provided by interna- annual economic growth throughout the tional donors.42 seventies and still ranked fourth worst in The common goals of improving the world in child health. Faced with ex- human nutrition, health, physical well- amples like this, it has become obvious being, and the status of women all re- that rapid economic growth will not nec- quire greater efforts in family planning. essarily improve living conditions for the The achievements of China, Indonesia, majority of people in developing coun- and Thailand demonstrate that these tries.43 goals can be reached. Though family An alternative development strategy planning has come under attack recently focuses on improving education and in the United States, the burden of proof health and resists foreign investment, 189 Investing in Children (175) particularly from the West. Tanzania, for Reducing consumptionanyfurther example, worked hard to increase liter- would be virtually impossible. Much acy and improve child health. Economi- waste and corruption exists in the Third cally,however, Tanzania and many World, but without outsidepressure countries following this mode; stagnated which can be exerted with aidreform is because they eliminated incentives for unlikely. Much of the additional funds agricultural and industrial production will have to come from the industrial and cut themselves off from badly world. The United States, which in abso- needed foreign capital. lute terms is the world's largest aid China has recently shown how these donor, gives less in terms of percent of two development strategies can be effec- gross national product (GNP) than all 9f tively combined. The leaders madenec- but 2 of the 17 members of the Develop- essary investments in population quality, ment Assistance Committee of the Or- as measured by low infant mortality and ganisation for Economic Co-operation high literacy I.-.:s, but these alone did and Development. Eastern bloccoun- not stimulate economic growth. Now tries give 30 percent less than the United that incentives for private agricultural States in terms of donations as a percent production have been introduced, large of GNP. Much of the world's official gains are being made. emergency aid to African famine victims Once the model for developing coun- has simply been reallocated from exist- tries in primary health care and primary ing programs.45 education, China has now become the If such investmentsinvestments in model for economic developmentas the next generationmakeso much well. And the nation is proving right sense, why have more not been made? economists suchas Nobel Laureate The reasons vary, but they include the Theodore Schultz, who argues that in- fact that the necessary savings have been vestment in people is far more important wasted by both natural disasters and than investment in machines.'' China is those caused by humans. Investments in also proving that market pricing and children also do not pay off for a long financial incentives are powerful forces time, and most people have far more im- for improving economic conditions. If mediate needs. People in the Third adopted throughout the Third World, World are not unwilling to sacrifice for the Chinese triad of primary healthcare, their children, but their margin of exis- primary education, and agriculturalre- tence is so narrow that they often must form could spur a lasting child survival choose between their children and their and development revolution. own lives. The poor health of women in so much of the Third World reflects just such a choice. Once the model for developing In these cases, industrial countriescan countries in primary healthcare siphon off part of their surplus to help and education, China hasnow be- out those who have nothing extra. The outpouring of private donations to fam- come the model for economic de- ine victims suggests that people feel velopment as well. compelled to provide disaster relief. But disasters will only grow unless investments are made in family planning, The world's poorest people them- health care, and education, andso will selves can hardly increase their savings the costs of disaster relief. to provide the funds for development. When development relief does more

190 (176) State of the World -1986 than just stave off famine, when it is in- the industrial world through increased vested to provide benefits for years to trade. But a moral burden also rests on come, then savingsin lives and money those who could have done so much to will be made. Growth in the Third help so many at so little real cost, but did World means additional prosperity in not.

191 10

Reversing

Africa's Decline Qf

Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf

Although essentially agrarian, Africa is duction has been declining. In 1983 and losing the ability to feed itself. In 1984, 1984years in which low rainfall de- 140 million of its 531 million people pressed the harvest-118 and 120 kilo- werefedentirelywithgrainfrom grams of grain were produced per per- abroad. In 1985, the ranks of those feu son, down more than a third from the with imported grain may have reached peak.2 (See Figure 10-1.) Few countries 170 milliontwo thirds as many people have escaped this downward trend. But as live in North America. In February of more serious, there is nothing in pros- 198, the United Nations reported that pect on either the agricultural or the some 10 million people had left their vil- family planning side of the food-popula- lages in search of food, many of them tion equation to reverse the situation. crowdedintohastilyerectedrelief As per capita grain production has de- camps. Starvation deaths had passed the clined in this agrarian society, so has per 1 million mark.' capita income. The policymakersre- During the two decades after World sponsible for economic development War II, grain production per person in and planning are now painfully aware of Africa either remained steady or in- this development. At a ministerial-level creased slightly, peaking in 1967 at 180 meeting in late April 1985 they drafted kilograms.Thislevel,roughly one a memorandum to the United Nations pound of grain per day, is widely viewed Economic and Social Council, which was as the subsistence threshold, below in effect a plea for help. They observed that "as a result of sluggish [economic] which malnutrition begins to erode growth and a high rate of population human development and labor produc. growth, per capita income, which was tivity. Since 1967, per capita grain pro- growing at negligible rates during the An expanded version of this chapter appeared as seventies,hasc..nsistentlydeclined WoIdwatch Paper 65, Rrversmg AJnca's Declate. since 1980 at an average annual rate of

192 (178) State of the World-1986 Kilograms decline that is inflicting such suffering Per Person on the people of Africa. 250 This raises several questions: Are the political leaders of Africa prepared to 200 - (subsistence level) make the tough decisions needed to re- (180) verse the decline? And is the interna- tiona.' community prepared to mobilize 159 - to het!) Africa save itself? Can African governments and the international de- 100 - velopment community adopt a development strategy based on environmental rather than narrow economic goals, one 50 - that restores and preserves natural sup- Sour. U S Dept. of Agriculture port systemsforests, grasslands, soils, andthe hydrological regimerather

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 than meeting a specified rate of return on investment in a particular project? Figure10.1. Per Capita Grain Producti ,n in With environmental deterioration un- Africa, 1950.85 dermining economic progress all across 4.1 percent and average per capita in- the continent, the only successful eco- come is now between 15 and 25 percent nomic development strategy will be one less than 15 years ago."3 that restores the natural systems-)r, which the economy depends. Reversing The ci:sis has prompted a few laud- Africa's decline will require carefully or- ableinitiatives, such as World Bank chestrated national efforts to organize efforts to raise an additional $1 billion millions of people to plant trees, build for long-term economic assistance and soilconservationterraces, and plan the appointment of an Emergency Relief smaller families. An environmentally Coordinator for Africa by the U.N. Sec- oriented effort to change the situation in retary General.4 But these actions deal Africa will, of necessity, be people-based largely with the symptoms of Africa's de- rather than capital-based. To be sure, cline, not the causes. An economic as- more capitalwillbe neededmuch sistance strategy dictated by traditional more. But the heart of the strategy will financial criteriathe rate of return on be the mobilization of people. project investmentsis destined to fail. Indeed, it is already failing. Continuing a "business as usual" policy toward Africa amounts to writing off its future. Without a massive mobiliza- BRAKING POPULATION tion of resources, the prospect of reversing the decline in per capita grain pro- GROWTH duction is poor, suggesting that famine In the late twentieth century, the in- will become chronic, an enduring fea- crease in human numbers has shaped ture of the African landscape. At issue is the destiny of Africa far more than it has whether national governments and inany other continent. Not only is its popu- ternational assistance agencies can fash- lation growth the fastest of any continent ion new, environmentally based devel- in history, but in country after country, opmentstrategiestoreversethe demands of escalating human numbers ecological deterioration and economic are exceeding the sustainable yield of

193 (178) State of the World-1986 Kilograms decline that is inflicting such suffering Per Person on the people of Africa. 250 This raises several questions: Are the political leaders of Africa prepared to (subsistence level) make the tough decisions needed to reverse the decline? And is the international community prepared to mobilize to help itrrica save itself? Can African governments. and the international de- 100 - velopment community adopt a development strategy based on environmental rather than narrow economic goals, one 50 - that restores and preserves natural support systemsforests, grasslands, soils, Source U S. Dept. of Agriculture and the hydrological regimerather

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 than meeting a specified rate of return on investment in a particular project? Figure 10.1. Per Capita Grain Producti Al in With environmental deterioration un- Africa, 1950-85 dermining economic progress all across 4.1 percent and average per capita in- the continent, the only successful eco- come is now between 15 and 25 percent nomic development strategy will be one less than 15 years ago."3 that restores the natural systems which the economy depends. Reversing The ci:sis has prompted a few laud- Africa's decline will require carefully or- able initiatives, such as World Bank chestrated national efforts to organize efforts to raise an additional $1 billion millions of people to plant trees, build for long-term economic assistance and soilconservationterraces, and plan the appointment of an Emergency Relief smaller families. An environmentally Coordinator for Africa by the U.N. Sec- oriented effort to change the situation in retary General.4 But these actions deal Africa will, of necessity, be people-based largely with the symptoms of Africa's de- rather than capital-based. To be sure, cline, not the causes. An economic as- more capitalwillbe neededmuch sistance strategy dictated by traditional more. But the heart of the strategy will financial criteriathe rate of return on be the mobilization of people. project investmentsis destined to fail. Indeed, it is already failing. Continuing a "business as usual" policy toward Africa amounts to writing off its future. Without a massive mobiliza- BRAKING POPULATION tion of resources, the prospect of reversing the decline in per capita grain pro- GROWTH duction is poor, suggesting that famine In the late twentieth century, the in- will become chronic, an enduring fea- crease in human numbers has shaped ture of the African landscape. At issue is the destiny of Africa far more than it has whether national governments and inany other continent. Not only is its popu- ternational assistance agencies can fash- lation growth the fastest of any continent ion new, environmentally based devel- in history, but in country after country, opmentstrategiestoreversethe demands of escalating human numbers ecological deterioration and economic are exceeding the sustainable yield of

193 Reversing Africa's Decline (179) locallife-support systemscroplands, held in Bucharest, only 2 countries in grasslands,andforests.Eachyear sub-Saharan Africa had policies to re- Africa's farmers attempt to feed 16 mil- duce population growthKenya and lion additional people, roughly 10 times Ghana. By mid-1984, 13 had such poli- the annual addition in North America or cies. The additional countries were Bo- Europe.5 tswana, Burundi, The Gambia, Lesotho, According to U.N. projections, Afri- Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, ca's 1980 population of just under 500 Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. U.S. million will reach 1.5 billion by 2025a demographer Thomas Goliber points tripling within just 45 years.8 Virtually out that of this group, 5 had explicit fer- all governments will have to contend tility reduction goals. Botswana wanted with the momentum of growth that re- to increase contraceptive use to 15 per- sults when populations are dominated cent of all couples of reproductive age by by people born since 1970. In some Afri- 1985; Ghana wishes to reduce popula- can societies, children under age 15 con- tion growth to 2 percent annually by the stitute almost half the total, far higher year 2000; Kenya, to 3.3 percent by than in most of the world. All of these 1988; Rwanda, to 3.5 percent by 1986; young people will reach reproductive and Uganda, to 2.6 percent by 1995.7 age by the end of the century. If African governments take a serious look at future population/resource bal- After a long silence on the popula- ances, as China did almost a decade ago, tion issue, key African leaders are they too may discover that they are now making it a matter of public forced to choose either a sharp reduction in birth rates or falling living stan- discussion. dards and, in some cases, rising death rates. Over the long term, nature provides At an early 1984 conference on popu- no alternative to getting the brakes on lation convened in Arusha, Tanzania, by population growth. But doing this by re- the Economic Commission for Africa, ducing birth rates will be extraordinarily the 36 assembled countries observed difficult for all African governments, es- that "current high levels of fertility and pecially in those countries where cou- mortality give riseto great concern ples still have five to eight children. Yet, about the region's ability to maintain the alternative may be an Ethiopian-type even [those] living standards already at- situation in which population growth is tained since independence." Confer- checked by famine. ence attendees adopted the Kilimanjaro Concern about population growth ap- Program of Action on Population, which pears to be growing. Over the last 18-24 called on Commission member-states to months, the United Nations Fund for "ensure the availability and accessibility Population Activities and the World of fami'y planning services to all couples Bank have received numerous requests or individuals seeking such services from African governments for family freely or at subsidized prices."8 After a planning assistance. Although these re- long silence on the population issue, key quests will not immediately translate African leaders are now making it a mat- into couples having smaller families, ter of public discussion. they are a step in the right direction. Among the countries with family plan- As recently as 1974, when the U.N. ning programs, Zimbabwe's may be the Conference on World Population was most vigorous. In early 1985 demand for

194 (18o) State of the World-1986 familyplanning servicesoutstripped study have established somewhat similar projections, forcing the government to fertility reduction goals." request an emergency air shipment of The cost of providing family planning contraceptives from the United States. services to achieve these goals, though In 3 cot tinent where emergency food substantial, is modest indeed compared shipments dominate the news, such a re- with the ecological, economic, and social quest is a welcome development. Ac- costs or inaction. The Population Insti- cording to a recent survey, close to one tute notes that funds would come from third of married women of reproductive four sourcesindividual couples who age in Zimbabwe are using contracep- pay some or all of the expense of the tion. More important, this figure is grow- contraceptives they use, private family ing rapidly.9 planning organizations, governments of Discussions with Zimbabwean officials the countries in question, and interna- and farmers suggest at least three rea- tional family planning groups. sons for the soaring interest in limiting The World Bank estimates that adop- family size. First, since local communi- tion of a "rapid" fertility decline goal in ties are responsible for educational ser- sub-Saharan Africa would require a vicesbeyondprimaryschool,they twentyfold increase in family planning financesecondaryschooleducation expenditures by the end of this century largely by assessing student educational a 16 percent increase per year. Yet fees. For parents who want a good edu- these would be more than offset by re- cation for their children, the incentive to duced public spending in other sectors. reduce family size is strong. Second, in Savings in education costs .lone in the rural areas, where most Zimbabweans year 2000 would reach $6 or more per live, people are increasingly aware that capita in a country such as Zimbabwe." growth in family size will no longer be These projected expenditures over matched by growth in cropland area. the next 15 years are not beyond reach. Third, contraceptive services are readily Yet, they cover only the first gap in fam- availablethroughcommunity-based ily planningthe provision of services. distributioncentersnowoperating For the typical African country, bridging throughout Zimbabwe. People can now the second gaptha between desired consriously weigh the advantages of family size and the much smaller family planning their families, and do some- required to meet stated national popula- thing to have a smaller family if they so tion goalswill mead reducing average choose, whereas in the past they could family size from five or six children today not. In effect. the supply of family plan- to about two by the year 2000. This may ning service, is generating its own de- not be possiblewithoutsubsta ttial mand." financialincentivesordisincentives, Recent studies by both the Population such as those now being used in China to Institute and the World Bank shed light encourage one-child families. Wherever on the magnitude of the effort needed to desired family size exceeds that which is halt population growth in Africa. The consistent with the goals for social im- Population Institute based its assump- provement, substantial expenditures or tion on the announced population goals penalties may be required to reconcile of four countries. Egypt, for example, the two. wants to reduce its population growth Experience has repeatedly shown that rate from 2.7 percent at present to grass-roots programsthose staffed and roughly 1 percent by the year 2000. The led by local peopleare the most suc- other three countries considered in the cessful ones. The advice locals give is Reversing Africa's Decline (18i) always more acceptable than that of offers a steady source of cash to rural someone brought in specifically to pro- families,increasesthe pressures on mote a program. Convenience and cost woodlands. As trees disappear, the land are also important. Surveys show that steadily becomes less fit for agriculture. couples wishing to control their fertility The new forests on which Africa's future are unlikely to travel more than an hour depends will have to help make farming to reach a family planning service center. more secure and productive. If services are too costly, they go unused Overall, about 3.6 million hectares of One reason for the :.urge in demand for the continent's forests are cleared each contraception in Zimbabwe noted ear- year, an annual rate of about half of 1 lier was the decision to provide services percent of remaining forests. Shifting without cost to those with annual in- cultivation accounts for 70 percent of comes below $150.13 the clearing of closed-canopy forests and Family planning programs that work 60 percent of the cutting of savanna for- best offer a full range of contraceptives ests, according to the U.N. Food and Ag- and sterilizationfor both men and riculture Organization (FA -)).14 The women. The more methods offered, the continent-wide rates understate the re- more likely couples are to find one that gional pressures on forest resources. In meets their particular needs. For per- some parts of the continent, permanent sonal or medical reasons, some con- forest clearing is accelerating. traceptives may not be acceptable. When More than 5 percent of the moist for- couples are satisfied with a method, con- ests of coastal West Africa (the countries tinued use is far more likely. from Guinea through eastern Nigeria) Given the unprecedented numbers of were being cleared by commercial log- young people who will reach reproduc- gers and subsistence farmers each year tive age in Africa within the next two in the early eighties. At this rate, these decades, the adoption of the two-child forests have a "half-life" of just 13 years. family as a social goal may be the key to Well over half the outright deforestation restoring a sustained improvement in in Africa takes place in these coastal living standards. Success in striving for states, which contain only 7 percent of two children per couple will bring prob- the continent's forests and a quarter of lems of its own, including a severe dis- its people. (See Table 10-1.) Though tortion of age-group distribution. But it small by comparison with the vast re- may be the price many societies will have maining forests of the Zaire Basin, this to pa) for negl?cting population policy coastal greenbelt of rain forests may pla), for too long. a critical role in recycling the moisture from the Gulf of Guinea that provides summer rains from Senegal to Sudan. Despite a decade of rapidly increasing international support for reforestation, REPLANTING FORESTS little progress has been made toward restoring Africa's woodlands and better The future of the continent's forests lies managing itsforests. After sustained in farmers' hands. Lacking modem indrought turned to famine during the puts, many Africans working the land eariy seventies, a partnership of Euro- can increase harvests to feed growing pean countries and Sahelian nations populations only by clearing new fields, created the Club du Sahel to promote often at the expense of forests. Rising drought recovery and long-term devel- urban demand for fuelwood, which opment. Forestry and ecological restora- 196 (182) State of the World -1986 Table 10-1. Africa; Clearing of Closed Despite all these expenditures, World Forests, by Major Forested Region, 1985 Bank forestry advisor John Spears wrote in 1984: "The challenge remains of how Area of to multiply what arc in many cases rela- Closed Annual tively small scale initiatives, particularly Region Forest Clearing Change in countries like Rwanda and Burundi, (thousand into larger scale rural forestry programs hectares) (percent) that will penetrate throughout the rural areas as quickly as possible. The current Coastal 13,752 703 5.1 W. Africa rate of tree planting in many Bank mem- Zaire Basin ber countries is less than one-fifth (in 171,540 351 0.2 many small African countries one-twen- Ea ;t Africa 12,957 105 0.8 tieth) of the rate needed to assure a reasonable supply of fuelwood, fodder, and Total 198,249 1,159 0.6 poles by the year 2000."17 SCI. RCE Worldwatch Institute estimates based on A comparison of rates of tree planting U N Food and Agriculture Organization, Tropical with rates of deforestation supports this Forest Resources, Forestry Paper 30 (Rome: 1982). conclusion. FAO's survey of African forest resources showed that the area tion were high on the group's agenda. cleared each year exceeds that on which Starting from a base of only $2.9 million trees are deliberately planted by a ratio in 1975, international assistance to for- of 29 to 1, far higher than any other re- estry and reforestation in the Sahel grew gion in the developing world. If degra- more rapidly than any other develop- dation and the unsustainable harvest of woodlands are added, the ratio would be ment sector, reaching $45.3 million in higher s dn.'s 1980. Over that period, nearly $105 mil- Most of the international agencies that lion was spent to restore forests and sup- support forestry have begun a thorough ply wood for fuel and construction in the reexaminationoftheirreforestation region. Yet even with this rapid growth, efforts. New recognition of the complex aid for forests yieldeo funds that repre- relationship between forests, farmland, sented just 1.4 percent of the total inter- and household fuel supplies is begin- national assistance to the Sahel in those ning to influence the way money is spent years.' 5 to plant trees. The traditional rationale Much the same pattern was repeated for forestry programsthat impending throughout Africa by major interna- wood shortages simply mean the more tional donors. The U.S. Agency for In- trees planted the betteris no longer a ternational Development budgeted reasonable guide to setting planting pri- nearly $220 million to forestry and fuel- orities. Without question, more trees wood projects in Africa between 1977 must be planted in Africa. But which and 1984, although the annual amount trees, in which regions, for whom, and committed has declined since 1982. The by whom are the critical questions that World Bank had spent nearly $93 mil- will determine whether the next decade lion on fuelwood projects alone before of replanting fares better than the last. 1983, and between 1968 and 1984, the Plantations of fast-growing trees that Bank invested $426 million in forest can supply fuelwood and charcoal to management, watershed protection, or Africa's expanding cities are essential. agricultural development with a forestry Plantations now supply less than 5 per- component.'6 cent of the continent's fuelwood de-

197 Reversing Africa's Decline (183) .ands, and perhaps less tha.1 one sixth Encouraging the interplanting of trees of the wood awl charcoal burned in cit- and crops where forest boundaries have ies and towns. Opportunities for planta- been breached will establish some com- tions near settlements are far from ex- mon interest between farmers and for- hausted, and the technical experience to esters and expand the pctential labor establish and manage them can be put to force for forest management." best use near cities where a commercial Careful management of the conti- market can justify the steep investment nent's forests can boost wood supplies up to $1,000 per hectare required.'9 more cheaply than any fuelwood planta- In rural areas, where most African tion scheme. Africa still has over a billion families still live, trees should be planted hectares of forests and shrublaad from not primarily for fuelwood but to restore whichfirewood,buildingmaterials, fertility and productivity to agricultural medicines, and wild foods arc gathered. land. Though household cooking fuels U.S. Agency for International Develop- are no less vital for rural families than for ment forester Thomas Catterson points city dwellers, dispersed and self-reliant out that "even modest gains in produc- people in the countryside provide no tivity could have significant impact on market for plantations, even if trees the fuelwood supply."22 Tile cost of re- could be planted on the necessary scale. storing degraded but intact forests to By emphasizing the role trees play in soil productivity could be as low as $200 per fertility and stable farming systems, hectareone fifth the cost of many in- reforestation efforts can enlist the help tensiveplantations.Naturalforests of rural families. Professional foresters maintain hydrologic and nutrient cycles working year-roundcannotpossibly and an important refuge for wild plant oversee the necessary planting effort. By and animal species, critical functiolis contrast, Dennis Anderson and Robert that are often excluded from cost-benefit Fishwick of the World Bank estimate that calculations. providing tree seedlings to families to Any tree planting in the extensive plant and maintain on their own lands, crescent of savannas from the western even assuming that people devote no Sahel to South Africa will have to con- more than 10 days each year to caring sider the impact of livestock. The sale of for the trees, would create a work force livestock due to drought, and the tr 'gra- between 40 and 400 times larger than tion of pastoralists from grazing lands even the largest national forestry ser- that can no longer sustain their herds, vice.20 has tragically disrupted a traditional way Reintroducing agroforestry in its vari- of life (as discussed in Chapter 4). But ous forms could rebuild African tradi- adjustments now may offer opportuni- tions in which crops, livestock, and trees ties to restore produ- :vity to some of are integrated as a matter of course. Africa's rangelands. Livestock can be Most research in this area has empha- managed to favor the regeneration of sized reintroducing trees to cultivated woodlands. Controlled grazing helps land and grazing land. Researchers at trees compete with grasses for soil mois- the N?irobi-based International Council ture. Young seedlings, however, require for Research in Agroforestry argue thzt several seasons of protection from graz- farmers and foresters might both benefit ing, so rangeland reforestation requires from agroforestry in remaining intact cooperation from pastoralists if it is to forests. National forest reserves in many succeed. countries simply cannot be adequately Sophisticated toolscan sometimes protected from agricultural settlement. help transform fundamental problems, 198 (189) State of the World-196'6 and scaled-up reforestation programs trees are made available io the farm can take advantage of proven biotech- families that must plant and maintain nologies to screen useful tree species and them. Michael Dow of the U.S. National propagate large numbers for planting. Research Council speaks of a "genetic Poor genetic quality accounts for pt of supermarket" offering an array of tree the failure of past planting efforts. Ac- seeds and seedlings that would allow cording international forestry consul- farmers to choose familiar species and tant Fred Weber, "in the average nur- those that fit their specific economic and sery,wearestillraisinggenetic environmental needs. Dennis Anderson garbage."" Better screening and selec- and Robert Fishwick of the World Bank tion of trees that survive droughts and argue for a decentralized network of tree perform well in marginal environments is nurseries as the key to successful rural likely to increase success rates markedly. tree planting programs, concluding that "ideally, there should be a small tree nurseryatevery market centerin The 380 million people in the coun- Africa."25 tryside constitute the only labor Restoring Africa's woodlands and forests is essential to the recovery of agri- force large enough t') tern Africa's culture, on which the continent's eco- forest decline around. nomic prospects depend. It will require sustained effort and cooperation :i.rong governments and an unprecedented As important as the trees themselves willingness by international donors to aretheirinvisiblecompanionsthe acknowledge the needs and defer to the symbiotic fungi and microorganisms judgment of the rural people who will do that play a critical role in supplying nu- the bulk of the planting, maintenance, trients and water in harsh environments. and forest management. These 380 mil- Since commercial fertilizerswill not lion people in the countryside constitute likely be used on a large :.tale in African the only labor force large enough to turn reforestation efforts, research on nitro- Africa's forest decline around. No sim- gen-fixing microbes and on fungi that pler rationale for restoring woodlands 1, !wove the uptake of phosphorus (es- throughout the continent is needed than pecially lacking in many soils) deserves an observation by West African foresters high priority. Simple techniques for recalled by Fred Weber: "Regardless of inoculatingtreeseedlingswiththe how well all other rural development proper bacteria and fungi can dramati- efforts may succeed, a Sahel without cally increase plantation survival rates trees is dead."25 and boost productivity. Research on nitrogen-fixing bacteria and acacia trees is under wav at the West African Microbio- logical Resources Center in Senegal. In- voling institutes and universities from RESTORING SOILS other parts of Africa could expand the use of symbiotic microbes in tree-plant- Five years ago, a World Bank report, Ac- ing programs and help reduce costly celerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, losses announced that "a strategy to stop the Selecting suitable trees and designing accelerating degradation of soils and technologies to quickly propagate and vegetation is overdue.' 27 It is even more establish them will be useless unless overdue today. Restoring the fertility of

199 Reversing Africa's Decline (185) African soils, restraining agriculture on 1974, the Kenyan Ministry of Agricul- unsuitable land, and making farming far ture began a soil conservation extension more productive on the best land de- program with the assistance of the Swed- serve priority attention from African ish International Development Author- governments and the international com- ity. Farmers were encouraged to terrace munity. sloping land by leaving unplowed strips Ethiopia illustrates both the potential along the contour. To compensate them and the pitfalls of large-scale efforts to for the economic penalty of leaving conserve soils. In 1977, the government some land out of crop production, the launched a massive program in several government distributed fruit and fuel- provinces to construct soil-conserving wood tree seedlings and cuttings of terracesarridrains. The campaign quality fodder grasses for the unplowed mobilized subsistence farmers through strips. Tree crops diversified the pro- the country's peasant associations and duce farmers could sell, while high-qual- marshaled international assistance from ity fodder enabled them to restrain the the United Nations World Food Pro- destructive free glazing of cattle. Ter- gramme for "food for work" and "cash races retained water and soil nutrients for work" programs. By 1984, some and visibly raised yields on their upslope 590,000 kilometers of contour ditches side. In the semiarid Machakos district, called "bunds" had been constructed maize production in some fields actually and trees had been planted on 150,000 increased by half after the land was ter- hectares of erosion-prone slopes. Yet of raced .3° 500 million tree seedlings distributed Despite their agronomic advantages, from nurseries for planting, only 15 per- terraceshave drawbacks. On steep cent survivedas a result of drought, slopes where constructing terraces re- careless planting to fill quotas, and poor quires excavation, the labor involved can choice of tree species." be prohibitive. Where farmers lave One promising step taken in Ethiopia reached the limits of the available arable was the creation in 1981 of an applied land, as they have in the Ethiopian high- research program to assess the country's lands and in some central African areas, conservation efforts, recommend tech- leaving terraces in grass rather than niques, and monitor erosion in se' eral crops reduces the cultivated area, add- agricultural areas. With staff from t! ing to short-term food aid needs. And Univers;ty of Berne, Switzerland, and terraces must be maintained and in some support from the 'Inited Nations Uni- cases rebuilt every year, as experience in vei sity, the Soil Conservation Research Ethiopia has shown. In Rwanda and Project has trained Ethiopian techni- Burundi, contour ditches introduced by cians and gathered four years of infor- colcnial governments to control soil loss mation on erosion rates and conserva- have been abandoned since indepen- tion work. As programs begin in other dence because farmers feel the ditches African countries, similar sustained re- are not worth the maintenance they research will be essential to evaluate prog- quir,".31 ress and refine techniques.29 Although terraces are needed in some Kenya, with a long history of soil con- placesto slow soilloss,particularly servation efforts, offers an example of a where land is likely to remain in continu- promising combination of consen'ati ous production, soil scientist Michael and new farming practices that increases Stocking of the Univ,:rsity of East Anglia the land's vegetative cover and reduces emphasizes that "the only real way of the likelihood of severe erosion. In controlling erosion ratesisthrough

260 (186) State of the World -1986 veg, :ative protection, whether directly abandoned, the fertility of fallow land through high-input farming and dense can sometimes be restored quickly A re- standsof monocropsorindirectly search project in Nyabisindu, Rwanda, through fertility-enhancing farming sys- has developed an "intensive fallow" tems aimed at the small farmer."32 De- using deep-rooted legumes when land is veloping and introducing such fertility- taken out of production; World Bank enhancing systems has become a major analysts report that "the soil fertility im- goal of agricultural research in Africa. provement achieved within one year One of the more promising ap- with this type of fallow is remarkable."33 proaches in humid areas is to grow crops Where new land remains available for without plowing at all. Since 1974, Rat- clearing, hown er, orwhere livestock are tan L-,1 and his colleagues at the Interna- allowed to graze fallow land, farmers tional Institute of Tropical Agriculture may be slow to change their fallow prac- (IITA) in Ibadan, Nigeria, have been tices. studying low-cost minimum-tillage and no-till systems for humid and subhumid areas in Africa. No-till methods, which i.-volve planting directly into a stubble Minimum-tillage systems offer an mulct. and using herbicides for weed alternative to shifting cultivation control, can reduce soil losses to nearly and a chance to remove some mar- zero, increase the capacity of cropland to ginal land from cultivation entirely. absorb al-td store water, and reduce the energy atid labor needed to produce a harvest. Perhaps most important, Lal points out that "no-tillage generally out- On fertile land, as much biological ac- yields the conventional tillage systems if tivity occurs in the topsoil itse'f as in the the crops suffer from moisture, tempera- crops it sustains. The renewed interest ture, or nutritional stress."33 in intercropping, minimum tillage, and An IITA report sketches the rationale managed fallows has rekindled investi- for farming systems that reduce or elimi- gation of the soil organisms that synthe nate plowing: "Erosion must be pre- size and release plant nutrients in the vented by keeping a continuous ground absence of artificial fertiiizer. Little is cover, and by avoiding soil compaction known about the ecology of microbes in from the use of machinery. Organic mat- the soil. Since fertilizer-intensive farm- ter must be maintained by the use of ing certainly will not reach most African mulch. And leaching must be countered, farmers in the years ahead, research on as it is in the natural forest Rnd in the biological fertility, especially nitrogen long-tallow system of shifting cultiva- fixation, can complement soil conservation. by deep-rooted trees or plants, tion work as well as reforestation efforts, w' pump nutrients up into the foli- as mentioned earlier. In early 1984, the a6 rom which the/ ultimately fall back International UnionofBiological into the soil."34 Sciences proposed a major collaborative Minimum-tillage systems that main- research program to "determine the tain the productivity of cropland offer an management optionsforimproving alternative to shifting cultivation and a tropical soil fertility through biological chance to remove some marginal land processes."36 from cultivation entirely. Where un- Although slowing severe erosion and plowed land is still available and, there- improving low-input shifting cultivation fore, shifting cultivation is unlikely to be practices are important, the momentum

2 J1 Reversing AJrica's Decline (187) of population growth and increasing nitrogen-fixing trees like leucaena work pressure on soils in African countries de- well in this system, improving the soil mands more radical changes in the con- and providing the farmer with fuelwood tinent's agriculture. According to Er- and fodder. Alley cropping recovers soil mond Hartmans, Director of IITA, "in fertility in the same way that traditional the long run Africa's growing popula- bush-fallow methods do, but it permits tion can be fed only if traditional systems continuous cultivation." are changed ....The solution of Africa's In parts nf the semiarid Sahel where food crisis will not be by a gradual evolu- cash crops have replaced traditional tion of existing systems only."37 The agroforestry methods based on the na- revolution in farming systems that con- tive acacia ti seasonal grazing lands serves soil and permits continuous culti- have been converted to cropland. Many vation will take African agriculture back valuabletrees and perennial grasses toitscultural and climatic rootsa have disappeared from the landscape. savanna agriculture patterned on the Research in Senegal reveals some of the natural vegetation that it replaces. advantages of reintroducing native ni- On savannas, trees and grasses grew trogen-fixing trees to agriculture in this together. There is no closed forest or area: "Yields of millet and groundnuts unbroken prairie. The new agricultural grown under Acacia albida trees on infer- methods known collectively as tilf- soils increase from 500 kilograms agroforestry mimic this natural relation- per hectare to 900 kilograms per hect- ship by combining useful tree crops with are. In addition to increased crop yields, cultivated food crops. Agroforestry sys- there are 50-100 percent increases in tems can be tailored to the desiccated soil organic matter, improved soil struc- Sahel and to the moist farmlands of ture, increased water-holding capacity, equatorial andcoastal West Africa. and a marked increase in soil microbio- 1 heir universal appeal is reduced soil logical activity beneath the trees."40 As erosion, increased nutrient cycling and with alley cropping in wetter lands, biological activity in the topsoil, and re- agrolorestry in the Sahe!ian countries silience to drought. The trees used in can shorten fallow intervals, enrich soils, agroforestry can help secure terraces on and reduce the pressure to expand farm- sloping land. A World Bank study of ing onto marginal land. Rwanda, Burundi, and Zaire pointed out that "the existing hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of terraced land should be considered as e huge sunken capital left over from colonial GETTING AGRICULTURE times ....The stabilization of these terraces would be a first step for future in- MOVING troduction of agro-forestry farming sys tems and changes in land use."38 By almost any standard, aE iculture is For humid areas, IITA and the Nairo- not doing well in Africa. Declining per bi-based International Council for Re- capitafoodproduction,abandoned search in Agroforestry Are investigating cropland, rising food imports, and fam a technique called alley cropping. Rows ins are ; riong the most visible failures. of crops are grown between hedgerows This di,mal record stems in part from of trees or perennial shrubs. Prunings the record population growth described from the trees mulch the crops, return- earlier and the associated deterioration ing nutrients to the soil. Fast-growing, of the agricultural resource base. Agri-

202 (188) State of the World-1986 culture also suffers from low priority and 219 million, are breaking down. As men- prestige, national food price policies tioned in the preceding section, mar- that discourage investment, and declin- ginal land is being plowed and fallow ing rainfall. cycles are being shortened. The new ag- Within Africa, agriculture is widely riculturaltechnologiesandinputs neglected. International aid programs needed to offset land productivity losses have focused on specific projects rather either have not been developed or are than overriding issues such as food pric- not being applied. ing policy. Too often this assistance has One reason for Africa's agricultural been directed at the symptoms of agri- disappointment is the expectation that cultural stresses rather than the causes. the dramatic advances in grain produc- Fortunately, awareness of these short- tioninAsia that began some two comingsisslowly spreading. World decades ago could be duplicated. Unfor- Bank Senior Vice-President Ernest Stern tunately, differences between the two describes the situation thus: "We, along continents make it impossible to transfer with 0:her donors, I think it is fair to say, the Asian formula. For example, Asian among all our achievements, have failed agriculture is dominated by wet rice cul- in Africa. We have not fully understood tivation. A single package of successful the problems, we have not identified the yield-raising rice technologies could be priorities, we have not always designed easily adapted for use throughout he re- our projects to fit the agroclimatic condi- gion. Indeed, essentially the samtap- tions of Africa and the social, cultural proach was used for Asia's second food and political frameworks of Africa... staple, wheat, most of which is also irri- we, and everybody else, are still unclear gated. Africa, in contrast, depends on about what can be done in agriculture in several staplescorn, wheat, sorghum, Africa."" millet, barley, and nce among thece- A 1981 report from IITA summarized reals, plus cassava and yamsanda the c lemma: "In Africa, almost every highly hetcrogenous collection of farm- probl,:m is more acute than elsewhere. ing systems. Topsoils are more fragile, and more sub- Even more important, much of Africa ject to erosion and degradation. Irriga- is semiarid, which limits the profitable tion covers a smaller fraction of the cul- use of yield-raising inputs such as fertili- tivated area . . . leaving agriculture zer. In Asia and elsewhere, dramatic exposed to the vicissitudes of an irregu- gains in food production have been lar rainfall pattern. The infrastructure, achieved in large part because abundant bothphysicalandinstitutional, is moisture enables cropstorespond weaker. The shortage of trained people strongly to chemical fertilizer. In thi., re- is more serious. The flight from the land spect, Africa more nearly resembles is more precipitate....In one respect, semiarid Australia, which despite a tech- namely the failure to develop farming nologically advanced farm system has systems capable of high and sustained raised grain yields per hectare only 18 rates of production growth, the prob- percent over the last 30 years. By com- lems of Africa have re, ,-.hed the stage of parison, African agriculture does not crisis. "42 fare too poorly, since grain yield per hect- As the continent's population ap- are is up some 38 percent. Yet North proaches 600 million, centuries-old agri- America, East Asia, and Western Europe cultura: systems of shifting cultivation have more than doubled grain yields that were ecologically stable as recently during that time.43 as 1950, when the population was only The key to raising cropland productiv-

203 Reversing Africa's Decline (789) ity in Asia has been the interaction of Europe, and Japan. Tunisia and Zim- irrigation,fertilizer,andhigh-yield babwe have each more than doubled dwarf wheats and rites. In Africa, the use yields. Egypt, starting from a far higi.er of irrigation and fertilizer has been base, has nearly accomplished the same growing, though from a small base. Even thing. At the other end of the spectrum, though irrigated area has increased a number of countries have lower crop from 5.8 million hectares in 1963 to 8.6 yields today than they did 30 years ago. million hectares in 1981 (about 7 per- In Nigeria, for example, grain yields per cent of cropland)it still leaves the con- hectare are 9 percent lower today than tinent, a region with II percent of the they were in the early fifties. They have world's people, with only 4 percent of its declined even more in Mozambique, irrigated area." Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia.47 In all, Within Africa, irrigated area is highly more till- n 40 percent of Africans live ill concentrated in a few countries. Egypt, countries where grain yields per hectare whose agriculture depends on irrigation are lower today than they were a genera- from the Nile, has 34 percent of the con- tion ago. tinent's irrigated area. Sudan, also rely- Yield-raisingtechnologiessuchas ing on the Nile, has 21 percent. At the chi mical fertilizer and improved varie- southern end, South Africa has invested ties have been adopted, at least to some heavily in irrigation, accounting for 12 extent, inall countries. But in some percent of the total. Thus these three these inputs have been more than offset countries account for two thirds of the by soil erosion, the addition of low fertil- continent's irrigated land; the remaining ity land to the cropland base, shorter fal- one third is widely scattered throughout low periods, and declining rainfall. In- the rest of Africa.45 decd, if changes in and use and land The pattern of fertilizer use is similar degradation are contributing to a long- to that of water. Usage climbed from term decline in rainfall, then efforts to negligible 1evels at mid-century to 3.6 raise Africa's land productivity will face million tonsin1982butthisstill amounts to only 3 percent of the world even stiffer odds in the future. total. The patterns parallel irrigation, with South Africa and Egypt accounting for 55 percent of the continent's total." More than 40 percent of Africans With only a modest amount of fertilizer live in countries where grain yields used outside of Egypt, Sudan, and South per hectare are lower today than Africa, it comes as no surprise that since they were a generation ago. 1950 Africa has increased output more from plowing new land than from raising land productivity. This contrasts sharply with the rest of the world, where more Land productivity has declined most than four fifths of production gains have in countries where the cultivated area come from boosting yields. has expanded most, such as Nigeria, Although gains in land productivity Zambia, and Sudan (see Figure 10-2). In for Africa as a whole have not been par- addition to lower inherent fertility, the ticularly impressive, those in a few coun- newly cultivated land typically suffers trieshave been exceptional.South more from soil erosion, either because it Africa has nearly tripled yields over the issteeply sloping and vulnerable to last three decades, matching or exceed- water erosion, or because it is semiarid ing the gains in North America, Western and more susceptible to wind erosion.

204 (190) State of the World-1986 Kilograms Per Hectare proach to both research and project design. As World Bank forester Jean Gorse 1,500 has observed, the people with the information and understanding neededto help design strategies to raise thepro- ductivity of farmers and pastoralists in 1.000 these complex systems are the fr.rmers and pastoralists themselves.48 Thissug- gests that only a more time-consuming approach to project design,one that in- 500 volves local people in planning, is likely to succeed. Of all the steps thatgovernments can Source' U S Dept. of Age:culture take to raise agricultural productivity in

I Africa, a reorientation of food price poli- 1950 1960 0 1970 1980 1990 cies is most important. Toomany governments have followed policies de- Figure 10-2. Grain Yield in Sudan, 1950.84 signed to placate urbanconsumers. Soils on niarty of Africa's subsistence Ceiling prices for foodstuffs discourage farms are also suffering from nutrient agricultural investment and moderniza- depletion as firewood shortages leadto tion. A better policy would offergovern- the burning of cow dung andcrop resi- ment-backed price supports to provide dues, both traditional fertilizers. the assurance that farmers needto in- Some segments of the contin :it'sag- vest. In some cases, average prices for riculture, such as the irrigated farms of farm commodities after the adoption of Egypt and South Africa or the rain-fed price supports are little changed from corn production of Zimbabwe, have before. But the assurance of guaranteed been developed largely by technologies prices removes market uncertainty, thus from elsewhere in the world. In encouraging investmentatplanting many time. situations, however, relatively fewspe- cifictechnologies can be introduced In Zimbabwe, one of the few countries from abroad. Little research has been with effective price supports, both the farmers on large commercial holdings done, for example, on improvingtne productivity of transhumant pastoral- and those on tribal lands are responding ism, a system of livestock husbandry enthusiastically to price incentives. With a return to near normal rainfall for the where some of all of the herding family 1985 crop, Zimbabwe will have moves with the herd during part of the a large exportable surplus of corn. Farmerson year to take advantage of various sea- the tribal lands alone have produced sonal forage sources. a record marketable surplus ofcorn es- Much of African agricultureonce con- timated at 800,000 tons. Indeed, Zim- sisted of a complex, interactive mixture babwe indicated in April 1985 that itwas of crops, livestock, and treesasystem providing 25,000 tons of grain to Ethi- that contrasts sharply with the monocul- opia as food aid." tures on which most world agricultural Price supports can partly offset other research is based, which A- Rican farmers constraints, such as extensive illiteracy have been encouraged to adopt inrecent and the lack of effective agriculturalex- years. What is needed in large areas of tension systems, as they have, forexam- the continent is a holistic or systemsap- ple, in India over the past two decades.

2 1,n Reversing Africa's Decline (ipi) If a yield-enhancing technology is obvi- already cooperating in this effort, and ously profitable, market forces and the other countries have been invited to par- demonstration effect will help spread its ticipatc.51 use from farm to farm. African governments and the agricul- Until recently, labor was the principal tural research community must recog- constraint on the productivity of Africa's nize the need for numerous technologi- traditional agricultural production sys- calpackagesforthecontinent's tems. But as the population/land ratio agriculture. These include technologies increases, land is becoming a major con- developed elsewhere for irrigated agri- straint. Research to identify means of culture or for dryland farming, as well as substituting labor for land in the effort new technologies oriented toward bush to increase productivity could pay high fallow cultivation, nomadic pastoralism, dividends. Among the labor-intensive agroforestry, and integrated crop-live- activities that might effectively boost the stock farming. Given the enormous di- land's carrying capacity are tree plant- versity in the agricultural systems of the ing,stallfeeding,and composting. continent, no one package will work for When feasible, feeding animals in stalls more than a small segment of the conti- permits a more carefully regulated har- nent's farm sector. As a result, the re- vest of forage and the concentration of search investment needed to achieve a animal manure in a single location. This given advance in farm output in Africa in turn facilitates the systematic com- may be far greater than in Asia or in posting of animal ma, ure with crop resi- North America. dues such as straw, leaves, and other or- For some areas, no technologies are ganic materials. available to boost productivity and car- In a continent where livestock figure rying caoacity dramatically. In many so prominently as a source of food, draft cases, ,- are even in sight. Agricul- power, and, increasingly, fuel, livestock tural science simply does not yet offer productivity is a key agricultural indica- the subsistence farmer in semiarid con- tor. Any successful agricultural strategy ditions as much as it does the market will include efforts to increase livestock farmer with an abundance of water. productivity, either through breeding or better management. In this vein the In- ternational Livestock Center for Africa is crossing European dairy cattle with local draft breeds in an effort to develop a breed of hardy dual-purpose animals MORE THAN A MARSHALL that can be used for both ploy :ng and PLAN milking. Success would enable farmers to produce food and draft power with A mammoth effort is required to avert fewer animals and less feed.5° economic collapse in Africa. In many One long-recognized need of African ways, it is similar in spirit to the Marshall agriculture is millet and sorghum varie- Plan that revitalized Western Europe ties that are more resistant to drought. after World War II, but it will be far Closely related is the need for more- more demanding. Africa's population, at drought-resistant, faster-growing varie- over a half billion, is more than double ties of multipurpose trees. FAO has that of Western Europe at the end of the begun to collect seed and coordinate war. The Marshall Plan was designed to field trials of useful tree varieties in rebuild war-devastated economies semiarid areas, Senegal and Sudan are rather than ecologically devastated ones. 216

.., (192) State of the World-1986 Europe would have recovered without United States does not nowappear to the Marshall Plan, albeit muchmore have the leadership, even if it had the slowly. will. Nor are any institutions within Africa, on the other hand, is not likely Africa yet capable of providing this key to arrest the ecological deterioration element. and the economic decline that follows In the past few years, the United Na- without assistance from abroad. Europe tions Economic Commission for Afri- had the basic institutions in place;most ca, directed by a Nigerian, Adebayo of the damage was physicalthe de- Adedeji, has taken the lead among Afri- struction of cities and of industrialca- can institutions in assessing long-term pacity. Africa does not yet have all the economic and development trends. The institutions and skills needed toreverse African Development Bank, the conti- its decline. Europe was geographically nent's key development institution,re- compact, with well-developed communi- cently convened a workshop on desertification and transport systems. Africa is cation,s'..gnalingitsrecognition that vast, with only the most rudimentary environmental deterioration diminishes transportation network. The cost of the effectiveness of itslending pro- transporting food from surplus to deficit gran-ts.52 Unfortunately, however, the areas, whether by truck or draft animals, African Bank's neglect of population is- can be prohibitive. sues and policy continues. The mobilization of human and capi- At the international level, only the tal resources needed to turn Africa World Bank appears to be institutionally around is perhaps more like theemer- strong enough to lead such an effort, but gency mobilization of the Allied Powers it is not ideally suited for this role. The in the early forties, which required quick, Bank'sexperiencelie:primarilyin broad-based action. Had the Allied Pow- hnancing large-scale development proj- ers reacted slowly, events, and even ects, not in fostering local mobilization the outcome of World War II, might of the kind needed in Africa. But despite have been quite different. Faced with the need for a philosophical reorienta- an emergency, national governments tion, the Bank seems de3tined to fill the adopted compulsory militaryservice, leadership role sir.tply because no other imposed rationing, and commandeered international group has the capability. industrial facilities and resew.,:. insti- As a start, national assessments and tutes to achieve wartime goals. Winning long-term projections of environmental, the war required a single-mindedness resource, demographic, and economic and a unified sense of purpose, includ- trends are needed. A similar effortun- ing a common appreciation of whysac- dertaken in China in the late seventies rifices were needed. A similar effort will provided the foundation for reorienting be needed to reverse environmental de- that country's population, environmen- cline in Africa. tal, and agricultural policies. Withouta Le -idership will be needed to coordi- better understanding of where existing nate the international effort. In earlier trends are leading, it will be difficult to times, the United States provided strh mobilize support to reverse them, either leadership. It led the reconstruction of within or outside Africa. Few countries Europe and Japan after World War II. In have even attempted to meas,:re topsoil 1966 and 1967 it shippeda fifth of its losses from erosion, much less project wheat crop tc India in a highly successful the cumulative consequences of continu- effort to stave off famine after twomas- ing losses for land productivity. Assess- sive crop failures in that country. But the ments are needed of the deterioration of

20'7 Reversing Africa's Decline (193) grasslands, theloss of forest cover, cialized organizations of the United Na- changes in the hydrological cycle, soil tions system, such as the U.N. Fund for erosion, and the effect on soil fertility of Population Activities and FAO; from the bu ming cow dung and crop residues for bilateral aid agencies of the major indus- fuel. trial countries; from private develop- Most important, explicit projections ment groups, such as CARE and Church of ecological trends will facilitate the World Service; from private founda- analysis of how changes in natural sys- tions; and from numerous other sources. tems affect economic trends. Trend pro- Without clearl-i defined national strate- jections would alsohelp define the gies, neither indigenous resources nor thrust and scale of a successful reversal those coming from the outside will be strategy. Such projections can help na- efficiently used. tional politicalleaders inform themselves, and they can provide the information to help people understand the need If the economic decline affecting for, and accept, dramatic new initiatives. Africa is to be reversed, each coun- Iftheeconomic declineaffecting try will need an environmentally Africa is to be reversed, each country will need an environmentally based develop- based development strategy. ment strategy. The World Bank, given its research capacity and its experience in formulating policies and establishing To mobilize people to reverse Africa's priorities, is best equipped to assist indi- decline, the World Bank might consider vidual countries in outlining a national organizing an international youth assis- development strategy to reverse the tance corps, modeled after the Peace broad-basedecologicaldeterioration Corps, whose staffing and recruitment and set the stage for the resumption of would be designed to fill the specific growth in per capita food production gaps in skills that emerge as national and income. If events confirm that land effortsto reverse recent trends get use changes and soil degradation are al- under way. Getting people involved at tering the hydrological cycle and reduc- the local level is more akin to the Peace ing rainfall, a continental strategy will be Corps model than the large-scale, pro- needed to reverse the drying out ofject-oriented approach that has domi- Africa's land. Given the scale of climatic nated aid to developing countries. This processes, only a coordinated, conti- latter approach, most compatible with nent -wide reversal strategy will hay e the industrial world's strengths in ad- much prospect of success. ministration and management, is a leg- Once national strategies are outlined, acy of the colonial era that has proved and goals and timetables are established sadly mismatched to Africa's needs. As for such things as planting trees and low- New York Times columnist Flora Lewis ering birth rates, it would be up to each observed: "A way has to be found to national government to mobilize its own reintroduce Western capacity for organi- people and integrate assistance from zation, without old forms of domination, abroad into the national strategy. Out- if the cycle of degeneration is to be re- side assistance can come from interna- versed."53 tional development agencies such as the Many of the lessons most relevant to World Bank, the International Fund for Africa's crisis have been learned not in Agricultural Development, and the Afri- the industrial world but elsewhere in the can Development Bank; from the spe- Third World. South Korean and Chi-

2 0 8 (194) State of the Tor 1d-1986 nese successes in national reforestation, quences of continuing ecological aecay Indian and Nepalese experiences with are clear. The social coststhe human village woodlots, and community-based suffering and loss of lifecould eventu- family planning programs in Thailand ally approach those of World War II. and Indonesia, where population growth The greatest risk is that there will be has been halved within a decade, suggest a loss of hope. However bleak the deteri- potential partnerships that African lead- orating situation may appear, itis of ers might pursue. human origin and can yield to human Africa faces difficult choices. Success remedy. How African leaders and the in- in saving the continent hinges on ternational community respond to the whether political institutions are strong challenge will reveal much about the enough to make the course corrections human prospect over the remainder of needed to reverse the decline without this century and the beginning of the coming apart. The economic conse- next one. ,t

11 Redefining National Security

Lester R. Brown

Throughout most of the postwar period, "National security" has become a an expanding economy permitted the commonplace expression,aconcept world to have both more guns and more regularly appealed to. It is used to justify butter. For many countries, however, the maintenance of armies, the develop- this age has come to an end. As pres- ment of new weapon systems, and the sures on natural systems and resources manufacture of armaments. A fourth of build, as the sustainable yield thresholds all the federal taxes in the United States of local biological support systems are and at least an equivalent amount in he breached, and as oil reserves are de- Soviet Union are levied in its name. pleted, governments can no longer both Since World War II, the concept of boost expenditures on armaments and national security has acquired an over- deal effectively with the forces that are whelmingly military character, rooted in undermining their economies. the assumption that the principal threat The choices are between continued to security comes from other nations. militarization of the economy and resto- Commonly veiled in secrecy, considera- r-:.ion of its environmental support sys- tions of military threats have become so tems. Between continued militarization dominant that new threats to the security and attempts to halt growth of the U.S. of nations, threats with which military debt. Between continued militarization forces cannot cope, are being ignored. and new initiatives to deal with the dark The new s )urces of danger arise from cloud of Third World debt that hangs oil depletion, soil erosion, land degrada- over the world's economic future. The tion,shrinkingforests,deteriorating world does not have the financial re- grasslands,andclimatealteration. sources and leadership time and atten- These developments, affecting the na,u- tion to militarize and to deal with hese ral resources and systems or which the new threats to security. economy depends, threaten not only na-

21 0 (196) State of the World-1986 tional economic and political security, nomic output. (See Figure 11-1.) Ex- but the stability of the international panding faster than the world economy economy itself. since 1960, the growth in military spending has raised the military share of world economic activity to over 6 percent in 1985. During this quarter-century span, global military expenditures have in- MILITARIZATION OF THE creased every year, regardless of eco- WORLD ECONOMY nomic downturns, or of arms control treaties betwecn the two superpowers.2 The notion that countries everywhere The principal force driving global should be prepared to defend them- militarization is the ideological conflict selves at all times from any conceivable between the Soviet Union, with its so- external threat is a relatively modern cialist allies, and the United States, in one. Prior to World War II, countries alliance with the industrial democracies. mobilized troops in times of war instead of relying on a large permanent military In addition, alignment of the Third World states with the two military super- establishment. Since then, the military burden on the world economy has powers has made militarization a global grown enormously. Global military ex- phenomenon, independent of the level penditures in 1985 of $940 billion ex- of economic development. The con- ceeded the income of the poorest half of tinued striving for an advantage has led humanity. Stated otherwise, they sur- to enormous growth in military expendi- passed the combined gross national pro- tures in both camps. While the United ducts of China, India, and African coun- States devoted some 7 percent of its tries south of the Sahara.' GNP to defense in 1985, the Soviet Militarization can be measured na- Union, trying to maintain a competitive tionally as the share of gross national military establishment with a much product (GNP) devoted to the produc- smaJer economy, allocated 14 percent.3 tion of military goods and services, or as Although the military effort, of the the military share of the federal budget. Billion Globally, it can be judged by the military Dollars share of global product and the arms 1,000 share of international trade. For international comparisons, the share of GNP used for military purposes is the best 800 yardstick, since it can be applied to countries with widely differing economic sys- 600 - tems. Militarization can also be gauged in terms of employmentthe number of people serving in the armed forces, em- 400 ployed in weapons production, or involved in weapons research. 200 (1984 dollars) By all measures, the world economy has a decidedly more military cast today Sources ACDA; World Pr:or:nes than it did a generation ago. Using 1984 dollars as the yardstick, world military 1960 1970 1980 1990 expenditures totaled roughly $400 bil- Figure 11.1. World Military Expenditures, lion in 1960, some 4.7 percent of eco- 1960.85 Redefining National Security (197) United States and the Soviet Union are The share of national product devoted aimed primarily at each other, the two to military purposes varies widely among countries have managed to avoid direct countries. In the industrial world, the conflict. Not risking the engagement of Soviet Union and the United States lead each other's mutually destructive mili- the list; their key allies in the Warsaw tarycapacity,the superpowers have Pact and NATO, respectively, are not far waged their ideological conflict through behind. (See Table 11-1.) Japan, ben- proxies, including Korea, Vietnam, Af- efiting from U.S. defense of the region ghanistan, and countries in E:st Africa and a constitutional limit on its militari- and Central America. These campaigns zation, is spending just under 1 percent have fueled Third World militarization, of its GNP for military purposes. distorting pricrities and postponing development. Mahbub ul Hach chairman of Pakistan's planning commist'on, has ob- Global military expenditures in served,"Developing countriescan't 1985 of $940 billion exceeded the afford the burden imposed on us by the tense geopolitical situation." income of the poorest half of hu- Another source of militarization has manity. been the influx of oil wealth into the politically volatile Middle East. Tradi- tional tensions between Arabs and Israe- Within the Third World, military scc- lis have generated heavy armaments ex- tors are largest in the tension-ridden penditures by Israel, Egypt, and Syria. Middle East. Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, More recently, conflicts among various and Israel spend between 13 and 29 per- Muslim sects have been a source of cent of their economic resources to stress. Indeed, Muslim factionalism is P. maintain large military establishments. major factor in the costly conflict be- Most disturbing, militarization is spread- tween Iraq and Iran that has already ing rapidly in Africa, the region that can claimed several hundred thousand lives. least afford it. The continent as a whole Sadly, much of the region's windfall now spends $16 billion per year in this gains in oil income are being invested in sector. In Latin America, military expen- militarization and in destruction of the ditures in Brazil and Mexico, the two region's petroleum infrastructure rather most populous countries, are surpris- than in restoration of the region's de- ingly lowaveraging less than 1 percent graded environmental support systems of GNP. Central America, however, de- or in economic modernization. parts from the Latin norm, with El Salva- Ideological conflicts worldwide, reli- dor spending 4 percent and Nicaragua gious differences in the Middle East, and more than 10 percent of GNP for mili- aggressive arms exporting have con- tary purposes.6 tributed to a rate of growth in Third Over the past quarter-century, the in- World military expenditures that far ex- ternationalcommerceinarmshas ceeds that in the industrial world. Be- soared, largely because of the militariza- tween 1960 and 1981, these outlays tion of Third World economies that lack grew by some 7 percent per year, com- their own arms manufacturing capacity. pared with 3.7 percent in the industrial Expenditures on arms imports have world. In 1960, Third World military ac- eclipsed those on other goods, including tivitieF accounted for less than one tenth grain. For example, although world of the global total; in 1981, they were grain trade expanded at nearly 12 per- more than one fifth of a far larger total.5 cent per year from 1970 to 1984, it was

21 2 (198) Stale of the World-1986 Table 11-1. Military Expenditures as overtaken during the eighties by arms Share of GNP for Selected Countries, dealings, which grew at over 13 percent 1984 annually during the same period. As of 1984. world arms imports totaled $35 Country Share billion per year, compared with $33 bil- (percent) lion worth of grain, putting guns ahead of bread in world commerce.? (See Fig- Indus trial Countries ure 11-2.) Japan 1.0 The United States and the Soviet Canada 2.1 Union dominate arms exports, together West Germany 3.3 accounting for 53 percent of the world United Kingdom 5.4 total in recent years. In 1984, U.S. arms United States 6.9 exports totaled $7.7 billion, under 4 per- Soviet Union 14.0 cent of the nation's total. Soviet arms exports of $9.4 billion accounted for nearly 12 percent of their exports, and Middle East earned enough foreign exchange to pay Egypt 8.3 their grain import bill of $6 billion. Tne Syria 13.0 other ranking world exporters are U.S. Jordan 14.9 allies France, the United Kingdom, West Saudi Arabia 24.0 Germany, and Italy, which rank third Israel 29.0 through sixthasworldarmssuppliers.& Arms imports are much more widely Asia dispersed among countries, though the Sri Lanka 1.5 Middle East accounts for over half the India 3.5 total. During the early eighties, 7 of the Pakistan 5.4 10 leading Third World arms importers China 8.0 were in this region-Egypt, Syri., Iraq, Libya, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. India, in fourth place, was the only coun- Africa try outside the region in the top 5.9 Nigeria 2.5 In addition to its economic role, mili- South Africa 4.3 Ethiopia 11.0 Billion Dollars Libya 17.5 40 Sources' T S Dept Latin America of Agriculture, Mexico 0.6 30 ACDA Brazil 0.7 Venezuela (curry 1 dollars) I\ 1.3 20 El Salvador 4.0 Chile 4.5 Crain Imports Nicaragua 10.2 10 Arms Imports souaces: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms Trans- fers, 1985 (Washington, D.C.. 1985); Stockholm 1960 1970 1980 1990 International Peace Research Institute Yearbook, World Armaments and Duarmament (London: Taylor Figure 11-2. Grain Imports and Arms and Francis, 1985) Imports Woi'dwide, 1960434

2.13 Redefining National Security (199) tarization has important political dimen- culture. Indeed, expenditures on weap- sions. As the military establishments ons research, in which a half-million gain strength in Third World countries, scientists are now employed, exceed the they often assume power by forcr.In combined spending on developing new some instances, military coups d'aat a -e energy technologies, improving human justified by the neea to rescue a country health, rl..sing agricultural productivity, from corruption or from economic and controlling pollution.12 deterioration as a result of inept leadership. More often, they reflect the ambi- tion of military leaders who areill Each year the world spends several equipped to lead, but who have acquired the weapons and the command of :loops times as much on research to in- that allow them to assume leadershi? po- crease the destructiveness of weap- sitions by force. ons as on attempts to raise the pro- When governments are taken over by ductivity of agriculture. the military, they often shift priorities toward further militarization of the economy. During the decade since the military coup that overthrew Haile Selassie, The military'sdominance of the for example, Ethiopia has assembled the world's scientific research effort will cer- largest army in sub-Saharan Afiica, and tainly grow if the U.S. government pro- now spends 42 percent of its budget for z.eeds with its proposed Strategic De- military purposes.0 fenseInitiative. The largest research In many Third World countries, inter project ever launched, the so-called Star nal security forces are flourishing even Wart project willfurther divert re- aseconomic conditionsdeteriorate. sources from humanity's most pressing Ironically, soldiers often use their weap- needs. The effect of such distortions was ons to become a self-appointed ruling noted by Colin Norman in a 1979 World- group, terrorizing the people they are watch Paper: 'The United States has the theoretically there to protect. Military ability to survey virtually every square forces in Africa, used only rarek, to de- meter of the Soviet Union. yet the fend against attacks by outsiders, are de- world's scientists have barely begun to ployed mostly against people within survey the cunplex ecosystems of fast- their own borders. New York Times re- disappearing tropical rain forests or the porter Clifford May writes of a new war- malignant spread of the world's des- rior caste that has evoked into a ruling erts "13 class. Generously supported by the government, soldie;-s "are issued guns and bullets while farmers lack hoes and seeds." May also notes the technological incongruity of MIG fighter planes soar- COS7S TO THE Two ing above fields plowed by oxen." SUPERPOWERS Nowhere are the distorting efforts of militarization more evident than in its As note.! in ..:rapter 1, the cost of the claims on the world's scientific person- arms race to the superpowers goes be- nel. Each year the world spends several yond any mere fiscal reckoning. Itis times as much on research to increase drziningtheirtreasuries, weakening the destructiveness of weapons as on at- tht:r economies, and lowering their po- tempts to raise the productivity of agri- sition in the internationai economic hi-

I 4 (200) State of the World--1986 erarchy This long, drawn-out conflict is is leading to record-high real interest contributing to a realignment of the rate (the rate of interest after subtract- leading industrial countries, with Japan ing for inflation) and an overvalued dol- assuming a dominant position in the lar that makes U.S. exports more costly, world economy. One of the keys to in turn weakening the country's compet- Japan's emergence as an economic su- itive position. perpower is its negligible level of mili- Industry in the United States has been tary expendituresless than 1 percent doubly handicapped by these soaring of GNP. military expenditures. Averaging over The doubling of the U.S. national $200 billion per year since 1981, U.S. debt, from $914 billion in1980 to militaryexpenditureshavetotaled V. 841 billion in 1985, IT due more to $1,000 billion during the first half of the the growth in military expenditures than eighties, siphoning capital away from in- to any other factoi . Between 1980 and vestment in industrial plant and cquip- 1985, U.S. military expenditures ment and leaving the nation with out- climbed from $134 billion to $244 bil- dated,inefficientindustrialfacilities. lion (in current dollars). This increase of Even when kmerican corporations have roughly $110 billion dwarfs growth in all capital to invest, they are reluctant to other major economic sectors, including commit it at home, given their inability health, which increased $11 billion, and to compete in either overseas or domes- agriculture,which rose $15 Lillion. tic markets. One result is declining out- While debt was more than doubling be- put in basic industries, such as steel, au- tween 1980 and 1985, interest payments on the total due, reflecting higher real tomobiles, and machine tools. Between interest rates, were climbing even more, 1981 and 1984, a period of moderate reaching an estimated $143 billion in economic expansion in the United States 1986.14 (See Figure 11-3.) and worldwide, 2 million Americans lost The growing federal debt is mortgag- jobs in these basic industries." ing the U.S. economic future and, conse- The overvalued dollar and the lack of quently, the nation's position in the investment in new industrial capacity world economy. Among other things, it have dramatically altered the U.S. posi- Billion tion in world trade. As recently as 1975, Dollars the United States had a small trade surplus. In 1980, it registered a trade deficit of $36 billion. (See Table 11-2.) Though large by international v.er 'lards, this position posed few problen.s at that time, given the income from heavy U.S. foreign investments and loans, which offset the net trade outflow. The balance was upset, however, as the trade deficit climbed to $70 billion in 1983, and to a staggering $150 billion in 1985. This ballooning U.S. trade deficit and the associated borrowing abroad to finance the federal debt have cost the 190 country its position as the world's leading international investor. Almost over- Figure 11.3. Net Interest Paid on U.S. Federal night, the United States has become a Debt, 1960.86 debtor nation. This is a worrisome shift 2 I 5 Redefining National Security (zor) Table 11-2. U.S. Balance of Trade, seventies, the Soviet economygrew at 1950-84 (current dollars) roughly 5 percent per year, a rate ofex- pansion that brought progress on many Balance Year Exports Imports of Trade fronts. Heavy forced savings and a large, pouriy used reservoir of rural laborto (billion dollars) draw upon for industrialization spurred 1950 10 10 0 growth. Today, the high enforcedsav- ings continue, but little additional labor 1955 16 13 +3 can be shifted from the struggling farm sector into industry.I6 1960 21 16 + 5 Soviet industrial growth has slowed to a crawl. In agriculture, less grain is being 1965 27 23 + 4 produced now than in the late seventies. Production of livestock is expanding, but 1970 43 43 0 only with record feedgrain imports. Oil extraction peaked in 1983 and has fallen 1975 108 10._, + 2 in each of the two years since. With the output of wheat and oilthe two princi- 1980 221 257 36 pal commodities in the Sovieteconomy either stagnating or declining, theeco- 1981 234 273 39 nomic prospect is less than bright. Fall- 1982 212 255 43 ing production of oil, the source ofover 1983 200 270 70 half the country's hard currency, willre- 1984 218 341 123 strict the imports of essential products." 1985 217 367 150 Land degradation is also weakening SOURCES.International Monetary Fund,Interna- the economy. Extensive soil erosion,one isonalFinancialStatutesYearbook-1984 and source of declining iand productivity, Monthly Supplement (Washington, D.C.. 1984 has long been a concern of Mikhail Gor- and July 1985); Worldwatch Institute. bachev, oredating his rise to leadership. for the United States, as its international But despite the concern of Gorbachev, leadership role since World War H has other members of the Politburo, and So- derived in large part from its economic viet soil scientists, littleprogress has strength and prestige. The militaryex- been made in arresting this drain on So- pendituresthatareweakeningthe viet agricultural productivity." United States economically are dimin- Growing water scarcity throughout ishing both its stature within the interna- the south central and southwestern parts tional community and its capacityto of the country is another emergingcon- lead. straint on Soviet econor.lic activity,par- The Soviet Union, too, is payinga ticularly agriculture. Water is among the heavy price for its role in the arms race, factors limiting crop production in these retaining second-class economic status regions, yet the Soviets have made only despite its wealth of natural resources. minimal investmentsinwatereffi- Military spending channels roughlyone ciency." seventh of the nation's resources tonon- Similarly, the efficiency of energy and productive uses. It also diverts leader- other resource use in the Soviet Union is ship attention from the economicre- among the lowest in the world. In con- forms required if the Sovieteconomy is trast to the western industrial societies to remain a world economic power. and China, which have reduced the oil From the early fifties through the late intensity of (heir economies by roughlya 216 (202) State of the World-1986 fifth since the 1973 oil price boost the Union, can work reasonably well in the Soviets have made little or no prog- early stages of industrial development, ress.2° when the emphasis is on the production One reason for the Soviet's inefficient of coal, steel, and hydroelectric power, use of resources is the lack of broad- and when agriculture is a tr 'iditional, based technological innovation. In key largely self-contained sector. But the industries, such as oil extraction and the closer such an economy tries to move manufacture of motor vehicles and com- toward a modern, diversified, consumer- puters, the Soviet Union depends th w- oriented, industrial society, the less well ily on imported Western technoiogy. k-u- it works. Some economic analysts now ture gains in economic efficiency depend believe that, lacking basic reform, spe- on the use of computers, but in this cifically a shift to a more market-oriented modernizing activity, the Soviets lag far system, the Soviet economy will do well behind, trailing even Third World coun- to expand at 2 percent annually in t! tries such as Brazil and South Korea. In years ahead.22 addition to production shortfalls, the Soviet economists and planners regu- shoddiness of Soviet consumer goods larly acknowledge the need for change, and farm equipment make it virtually im- but Soviet leaders have not been able to possible for them to compete on the translate this into reform, because they world market. have been either too weak or simply un Ironically, the one sector in v:hich the able to devote the time and attention Soviet economy is competitive in world that an exhaustive economic reform markets is weapons manufacture. By would require. Unless the Soviet Union focusing on arms production to the ex- decentralizes its cumbersome, state-conclusion of other sectors,the Soviet trolled economy, it will fall even further Union is able to maintain military pro- behind.23 duction schedules and quality standards, While the United States and the Soviet but only by circumventing conventional Union have been preoccapied with each management control mechanisms. To other militarily, Japan has been moving make sure that weapons manufacture to the fore economically. By some eco- proceeds on schedule, thin sector can nomic indicators, it now leads both mili- use its special status to reorder priorities tary superpowers. In a world where the in its favor and to commandeer indus- enormous investment in nuclear arse- trial facilities or transport capacity. To nals has no practical use, the terms de- maintain quality standards, for example, noting leadership and dominance are it can requisition the highest quality shifting in Japan's favor. steels.Unfortunately, exercisingthis For many years, the Soviet Union has privileged status can disrupt the rest of enjoyed its status as the world's second- the economy." largest economy, the base from which it challenged the United States position of world leader. Japan's per capita income, The one sector in which the Soviet which surpassed that of the Soviet Union economy is competitive in world during the sixties, is now close to double the Soviet's. (See Figure 1 1-4.) If recent markets is weapons manufacture. economic trends continue, Japan will overtake the Soviet Union in total economic output before the century ends, A centrally planned, state-controlled reducii.g it to third place. The combina- economy, such as that of the Soviet tion of negligible defense expenditures

2 I 7 Redefining National Security (203) Thousand Table 11-3. Annual Exports, the United Dollars States and Japan, 1953-85, With 15 Projections to 1990 (current dollars) Sources: Pop Ref Bureau; ACDA; United Nations United Year States Japan Ratio 10 (billion dollars)(U.S./Japan) Japan 1950 10 I 10.0

1955 15 2 7.5 Soviet Union 1960 '21 4 5.2

1965 27 8 3.4

1960 1970 1980 1990 1970 43 19 2.3 Figure 11.4. Per Capita GNP, Japan and the Soviet Union, 19E0-84 1975 108 59 1.8

and high domestic savings have enabled 1980 221 130 1.7 the Japanese to invest heavily in modernizing plant and equipment. Thisin 1985 217 174 1.2 turn enhance(' the nation's competitive position, en:'-ang it to run a large for- 1990 217 233 0.9 eign trade surplus, even though it im- SOURCES:Historical data from Internaticnal Mone- ports virtually all its oil and most of its tary Fund,Iniernatronal Financial Staltslus Yearbook- raw materials.24 1989(Washington, D.C.: 1984); projections by As it narrows the output gap with the Worldwatch Institute. Soviet Union, Japan is challenging U.S. removing that country from the leader- dominance of world trade. In 1950,ex- ship position it has long held. ports from the United States exceeded In concert with the ballooning Ameri- those from Japan by more than 10to 1. can trade deficit during the eighties, U.S. (See Table 11-3.) Over theyears, this net foreign assets have fallen sharply, gap slowly narrowed, until by 1970 it was disappearing within three years. (See little more than 2 to 1. As recentlyas Figure 11-5.) By the end of 1985, the 1980, it was still near this level, but the United States had become U.S. advantage is disappearing during a debtor country.Meanwhile, Japan, withits the eighties. By 1985, U.S.exports were highly competitive economy and heavily only 20 percent greater than those of protected domestic market, is moving Japan. vigorously to the fore, generatingever During the eighties, the United States greater trade surpluses.25 has exported some $217 uillion worth of The combination of the surpluses, goods per year. If current conditions high domestic savings, and a near negli- prevail, exports will remain at this level. gible level of military expenditures in Meanwhile, if Japan's exports continue Japan has generated enormous internal to expand at 6 percent yearly, as they cash surpluses. These, too,are flowing have from 1980 to 1985, they willsur- abroad to areas with higher rate. ofre- pass those of the United States in 1988, turnincluding, importantly, U.S. Trea-

2 1 8 (204) State of the World-1986 Billion Thefirstresourcescarcitythat Dollars dramatically affected the global econ- 200 omy was that of oil. The 1973 price hike sent shock waves throughout the world, United States the reverberations'if which arestill 100 being felt more than a decade later. These and other consequences of oil reserve depletion :lave dominated head- (current dollars) lines over the past dozen years, but the 100 depletion of forests, grasslands, and top- Sources: U.S and soil and the alteration of the hydrologi- Japanese Governments cal cycle are of greater consequence over 200 the long term. 1960 1970 1980 1990 Unfortunately for economic planners Figure 11.5, Net Foreign Assets, the United States and policymakers, there has been little and Japan, 1960-85 systematic gathering of data on the condition of these basic resources and sup- sury bonds. In effect, the Japanese are port systems. The ecological deteriora- now helping finance the U.S. national tion outlined in Chapters 2, 3, and 4 fiscal deficit, and collecting hefty interest indicates the extent to which national payments for doing so. economies are adversely affected, partic- The U.S. economy is still twice as large ularly in the Third World. The dramatic as Japan's, and the country has a vastly rise in external deht in recent years is superior indigenous resource base of perhaps the most visible manifestation land, energy fuels, minerals, and forest of this ecological and economic cieterio- products.Nonetheless,theUnited ration, and the most worrisome new States is in the process of abdicating its threat to security. role of world leadership. A country that Governments faced with rising exter- is a net debtor, borrowing heavily from nal debt appear to pass through certain the rest of the world, cannot effectively stages in what is becoming a recogniz- exercise economic or political leader- able syndrome. The initial response of countries experiencir ig difficulty making ship. payments is to convert short-term debt into long-term debt. This works for some countries for a while, but eventually many find that they can no longer make both principal and interest pay- NEW THREATS TO SECURITY ments. Mexico, for example, is now in The extensive deterioration of natural such a situation. Some governments are support systems and the declining eco- even capitalizing the interest, converting nomic conditions evident in much of the it into additional principal and thus in- Third World pose threats to national creasing their debt.27 and international security that now rival There is a remarkable parallel be- the traditional military ones. Ecological tween countries crossing the sustainable stresses and resource scarcities eventu- yield threshold of their biological sup- ally translate into economic stresses with port systems and those crossing the sus- social and political dimensions: falling tainable debt threshold. Once the de- land productivity, falling per capita in- mand on a biological system exceeds its come, or rising external debt, to cite a sustainable yit:3, further growth in de- few.26 mand is satisfied by consuming the basic

219 Redefining National Security (205) resource stock. In such a situation, the eliminated; unemployment has risen. deterioration begins to feed on itself. Belt-tighteninghasallowedThird So it is with external debt: As it grows World countries to maintain access to faster than the economy, eventually a international credit and it has kept the point is reached where servicing the lending banks solvent, but, because it debt, even if limited to interest pay- has led to even greater debt, this ap- ments, becomes such a drain on the proach has diminished the prospect of economy that output is actually reduced, restoring a sustained improvement in as has occurred, for instance, in Brazil living standards. and Mexico. When governments can no By the end of 1985, many Third longer pay all the interest, then the debt World countries were delinquent in begins to expand, and the growth feeds their debt payments. (See Table 11-4.) on itself. Once countries cross these sus- Bolivia, for example, described in a U.S. tainable yield or debt-servicing thresh- government report as "in economic and olds, it is difficult for them to reverse the political chaos," did not make any pay- process. ments during 1985. Morocco's external In many Third World countries, the debt is now approaching the size of its past three years have been a time of en- annual GNP, making it extremely diffi- forced austerity and sacrifice. Imports of cult, if not impossible, to service. consumer goods, including food, have Sudan, on the brink of famine in 1985, been reduced; food subsidies have been illustrates the complex relationship be- Table 11-4. Selected Countries Delinquent in Servicing External Debt, 1985 External County Debt Financial Situation (billion dollars) Bolivia 5 Debt service payments remain unpaid over the past year; country is in "economic and political chaos." (USDA) Guyana 2 "Not likely to continue making its payments." (Econonast) Liberia 1 "Could soon be an embarrassment to the IMF." (Economist) Mauritania 2 Debt is "insupportable." (USDA) Morocco 13 "Financial situation is precarious; total external debt is approaching value of GNP." (USDA) Nraragua 5 Could not meet ;ts debt service obligations in 1984; appears that renegotiation of debt will be necessary in 1985. Peru 14 Refused negotiation with IMF for restructuring debt; debt servicing limited to 10 percent of exports. Philippines 26 Moratorium on principal payments in effect since late 1983; government denied additional funding by IMF "until it brings itself back in line." Sudan 9 Far in arrears in debt repayment; IMF and major creditors have halted financial assistance. Vietnam 7 Has fallen far behind with interest and capital payments; declared ineligible for further loans by IMF. SOURCESExternal debt information for all but Sudan from Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, World Financial .Markets, New York, September/October 1985, and private communication, and from U.S.Depart- ment of Treasury, Washington, D.C., private communication; Sudan's external debt and all quotes attributed to USDA from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, World Food Needs and Avadalnhiles (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1985).

220 (206) State of the World-1986 tween ecological deterioration, declin- The Third World debt threat is not a ing per capita food production, and trivial issue. Not only are hundreds of soaring external debt. As 1 of the 14 billions of dollars at risk, but the political countries in which farmland productivity stability of governmentsindeed, the is lower today than it was a generation future of democracy in some societies ago, mainly agrarian Sudan will obvi- hangs in the balance. Recognizing these ously find it difficult to honor its external broad implications of Third World ex- financial obligations, however well internal debt, Peru's new President, Alan tentioned its leaders may be.28 Garcia Perez, has observed, "We are Peru, also facing a deteriorating do- faced with a dramatic choice: it is either mestic resource base, including the col- debt or democracy." Similar concerns lapse of its anchovy fishery a decade ago are voiced in Brazil and Argentina, coun- and a heavy continuing loss of topsoil, tries that have recently returned to dem- has imposed a cap on debt servicing, ocratic administrations after years of limiting payments to 10 percent of ex- military rule." port earnings. In effect, this is a way of Assessments of Third World debt getting the private banks holding the repayment prospects are grim, but they loans to begin writing them off, thus would be even grimmer if financial ana- forcing them to participate in the adjust- lysts understood what is happening to ment process. This action means Peru the environmental support systems un- will probably not pay more than half the derpinning most Third World econo- interest due, making it the largest debtor mies. It is not a matter of an occasional to refuse to pay all the interest on its country here or there experiencing debt.2 9 deforestation, soil erosion, or land deg- Moreimportant,however,major debtor countries such as Mexico and radation. The great majority of Third Brazil are beginning to realize that the World countries have crossed the sus- austerityandassociatedeconomic tainable yield thresholds of their basic shrinkage that they agreed to in ex- biological support systems. change for rescheduled loans aye wors- Finally, a bank's existence rests on the ening economic and social conditions. confidence of people whose money has Indeed, they are concerned that the belt- been entrusted to it. If this trust erodes, tightening may eventually lead to politi- the bank cannot survive. The 1984 col- cal unrest, thus interfering with the very lapse of Continental Illinois National process of economic expansion required Bank and Trust, the seventh largest U.S. to service and repay the debt. Increas- bank, and runs on savings and loans in- ingly, debtor countries talk about lend- stitutions in the states of Ohio and Mary- ers as well as borrowers needing t J make land are indicative of what could happen adjustments. at the national and international levels." With this in mind, the United States Within the United States, the soaring proposed a modest increase in World federal debt is eroding trust in the coun- Bank lending at the annual Bank/Fund try's economic future. The farm debt is meeting in Seoul, South Korea, in Octo- very much in the news and very much on ber of 1985. Although intended to be the minds of Washington political lead- responsive to Third World concerns, ers. The Farm Credit System, which this gesture was not large enough to be holds $74 billionone thirdof farm meaningful. It did, however, open a dia- debt, reports that some $11 billion is un- logue on what the lending countries collectible. If a federal rescue effort is might do to help resolve the debt cri- needed, as seems likely, it would dwarf sis.38 th.e 1984 bailout of Continental Illinois Redefining National Security (207) Bank, which required an infusion of $4.5 Table 11-5. China: Military Expenditures billion.33 as Share of GNP, 1967-85 In these circumstances, inaction poses serious risks. As the stresses on the sys- Year Share tem build, eventually they will become (percent) excessive, and something will start to 1967 give. Prudence suggests that action be 13.8 1968 13.8 taken sooner rather than later. Once a 1969 large-scale erosion of confidence begins, 14.9 1970 13.5 it may be difficult to contain. To quote 1971 Fred Bergsten, President of the Institute 17.4 1972 14.3 for International Economics, "The fire 1973 brigade may not have enough water to 13.2 1974 13.5 douse this one, once it ignites."34 1975 13.1 1976 12.7 1977 12.3 1978 11.4 1979 12.6 COUNTRIES REDUCING ARMS 1980 10.4 OUTLAYS 1981 9.9 1982 9.3 A few governments have begun to re- 1983 8.6 define national security, putting more 1984 8.0 emphasis on economic progress and less 1985 7.5 on buying arms. At a time when global SOURCES: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament military expenditures are rising, some Agency,World Military Expendstures and Arms Trans- countries are actually cutting inilitary fers, 1985(Washington, D.C.: 1985); Chinese Em- outlays. A handful are reducing them bassy, Washington, D.C. private communication. sharply, not only as a share of GNP, but in absolute terms as well. Among these million in 1987, a drop of 24 percent. are China, Argentina, and Peru. And worldwide, it would reduce the As recently as 1972, China was spend- number of menand women under arms ing 14 percent of its GNP for military by some 4 percent.33 purposes, one of the highest levels in the In Argentina, the military government world at the time. Beginning in 1975, that was in office in the late seventies and however, China began to systematically early eighties increased military expen- reduce its military expenditures, and, ex- ditures from the historical level of 1.5 cent for 1979, it has reduced them in percent of GNP to almost 4 percent. One each of the last eight years. By 1985, of the first things that Raul Alfonsin did military spending had fallen to 7.5 per- as newly elected President in late 1983 cent of its gross national product. (See was to announce a plan to steadily lower Table 11-5.) this figure. When he took office, there Indications are that this trend may was broad public support for a reduction continue throughout the eighties. In July in arms expenditures, partly because of 1985, Beijing announced a plan to invest the ill-fated Falklands War, which under- $360 million over two years to retrain 1 mined the military's credibility through- million soldiers for return to civilian life. out Argentina. By 1984, arms outlays Such a move would cut the armed forces had been cut to half the peak level of in China from 4.2 million in 1985 to 3.2 1980, earning Alfonsin a well-deserved 222 (208) State of the World-1986 reputation for reordering priorities, and was burgeoning public debt. inflation, shifting resources to social programs.36 and a huge external debt that threatened (See Figure 11-6.) to become unmanageable. One source More recently, Peru has joined the of Argentina's external debt was the ranks of those announcing plans to cut taste for modern arms exhibited by Al- military expenditures. One of the first fonsin's predecessors. In Peru, the chal- actions of President Garcia on taking lenge was to arrest the decline in living office in the summer of 1985 was a call standards. At the time Garcia took office, to halt the regional arms race. Garcia is payments on the international debt were convinced of the need to reduce the 5 $475 million in arrears, and the govern- percent of Peru's GNP allotted to the ment was threatened with a complete military,a sum that consumed one cutoff of all new sources of investment fourth of the federal budget. As an indi- capital. Garcia found that ir tenni eco- cation of his sincerity, the President an- nomic decline was leading to social nounced that he was canceling half of deterioration and political violence." the order for 26 French Mirage fighter planes." The overriding reason for cutting Garcia is convinced of the need to military expenditures in each of these reduce the 5 percent of Peru's GNP three countries is economic. In effect, the three political leaders are defining allotted to the military. security in much more economic terms. For the Chinese, the military sector was one place harboring the additional re- Encouragingly, the reductions in mili- sources needed to achieve the desired tary expenditures undertaken by these gains in living standards. Once the goal three governments were independent of of rapidly improving living standards any negotiated reductions in neighbor- was ..dopted, the reduction of resources ing countries. China lowered its military devoted to the military was inevitable. outlays unilaterally, despite its 5,0e0- In Argentina, the economic incentive kilometer border with the Soviet Union, which has continued to increase its mili- Million tary might. Dollars Over the next few years, as govern- 2,400 ments everywhere face difficultiesin maintaining or improving living standards, others may also choose to reduce military expenditures. Quite apart from 1,600 the positive momentum of the international peace movement in recent years, worsening economic conditions may become the key motivation for reversing 800 the militarization of the past generation. (current dollars)

Source: ACDA

I I I 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 THE CHALLENGE

Figure 11.6. Military Expenditures ir. Argentina, For many Third World countries, the 1970.84 threats to well-being and survival come 223 Redefining National Security (20p) not from other countries, but from each logical, and hydrological data as wellas step that pushes them past the sustain- the more conventional economic and able yield thresholds of their biological demographic information. systems and the debt-servicing thresh- Once made, these projections could old of their economies. The estimated provide the rationale for launchingmas- million lives lost to famine in Africa in sive tree-planting efforts, accelerating 1984 and 1985 exceeds that in anycon- family planning programs, and making flict since World War II. How many many of the other interventions so ur- more lives will eventually be lost? No gently needed. They are also the keyto one knows, but the number of people at generating the support of the inter- risk is growing as the disintegration of national community. Without some un- their life-support systems accelerates." derstanding of the consequences of Reversing these trends requires a shift continuing on the current path, govern- in development strategy, particularly ments will be reluctant to intervene to where economic demands already ex- reverse ecolcgicaldeterioration and ceed the sustainable yield of forests, associated economic decline.Unfor- grasslands, and soils. In these circum- tunately, the countries that are most stances, continuing to rely primarily on affected by environmental deterioration narrow economic criteriasuch as the are those least able to undertake these time-honored rate of return on project projections, suggesting an important investmentstoshapedevelopment new role for the World Bank nd other strategies can lead biological and eco- development assistance groups. nomic systems to collapse. The only via- The principal obstacle to Third World bledevelopment strategy for many progress, one caused in part by ecologi- Third World countries is one that rests cal degradation, is mounting external on environmental criteria. one that con- debt. International financial institutions centrates on restoring the economy's en- have been reluctant to recognize that vironmental support systems. Any other scores of developing countries have is destined to fail. crccsed their debt-servicing thresholds. For national governments and inter- Private banks fear they will have to write off so many bad loans that it will greatly national development agencies, the time has come to rethink development. Poli- reduce their earnings and even threaten their solvency. Nonetheless, a substan- cies that once led to a sustained 5 per- tial share of the Third World's $800 bil- cent global economic growth are no lion external debt will never be repaid." longer doing so. The rising economic At the moment, institutions such as tide that once pulled living standardsup the World Bank and the International throughout the world is beginning tore- Monetary Fund lack the lending capacity cede in many Third World countries. As to restore the growth needed in Third discussed in Chapter 2, understanding World debtor countries. Private banks why this is so requires projections of are unwilling to increase d eir lending, Ix .th environmentalandeconomic with the result that developing countries trends, and, more importantly, of their are unable to ob .ain the capital needed continuous and complex interaction. to sustain progress. The only acceptable for example, food production forecasts resolution is one that leaves part of the are meaningful only if they allow for the interest payments in debtor countries, in effect of soil erosion on land productiv- order to get their economies moving ity. The only agricultural projections again. that provide a solid base for policy are Many strategies have been proposed those that incorporate agronomic,eco- to resolve the mounting debt problem.

,, uy

(2ro) State of the World-1986 One, put forward by Professor Robert thought until they pass a critical thresh- Wesson of Stanford University's Hoover old, and disaster strikes. Thus it is easier Institution, seems to satisfy at least the in the government councils of develop- basic criteria for success. It involves set- ing countries to justify expenditures for ting up an investment trust within the the latest-model jet fighters than for countries with unpayable external debts. family planning to slow the population Under this system, international lending growth that is destroying the economy's banks could use an agreed-upon portion environmental underpinnings. of their interest repayments to buy The new threats to national security shares in the trust. The trust, in turn, are extraordinarily complex. Ecologists would lend to indigenous enterprises, understand that the deterioration in the providing the private sector with sorely relationship between ourselves, now needed capital. Such an approach would numbering nearly 5 billion, and the envi- helprestoreinvestor confidencein ronmental support systems on which we 7.ird World countries, and it would also depend cannot continue. But few politi- give the private banks a long-term stake cal leaders have grasped the significance in these economies. For the lending in- of this unsustainable situation. stitutions, the alternative may be to write National defen3e establishments are off otherwise bad loans.41 useless against these new threats. Nei- ther bloated military budgets nor highl/ sophisticated weapons systems can halt A substantial share of the Third deforestation or arrest the soil erosion World's $800 billion external debt -.ow affecting so many Third World countries. Blocking external aggression will never be repaid. may be relatively simple compared with stopping the deterioration of life-support systems. Continuing a "business as usual" ap- The key to demilitarizing the world proach to the Third World debt prob- economy and shifting rescrurcesis a lem, with the deterioration in living stan- defusing of the arms 1 ace between the dards that will result,is a recipe for United States and the Soviet Union. political unrest, at bestand at worst, Whether this can be achieved in the fore- for social disintegration. Fortunately, seeable future remains to be seen. But as more and more Third World leaders and the costs of maintaining the arms race international lenders are coming to this multiply, both for the superpowers and conclusion. for the worla at large, the likelihood a Understanding the new threats to na- reducing tensions may be improving. tional security and economic progress In East Asia, traditional adversaries will challenge the analytical skills of gov- China and Japan appear to be in the pro- ernments. Sadly, the decision-making cess of establishing strong economic apparatus in most governments is not ties. In contrast to the Ur ''ed States, organized to balance threats of a tradi- China appears to be abandoning military tional military nature with those of eco- competition with the Soviet Union. With logical and economic origin. Nonmili- Japan showing little interest in becoming tarythreatsare muchlessclearly a military power, the stage is being set defined. They are the result of cumula- for peace in the region. Both countries tive processes that ultimately lead to the have redefined security and reshaped collapse of biological systems. These their geopolitical strategies, accordingly processesareseldomgivenmuch setting aside any ideas of political domi- 225 Redefining National Security (217) nation in favor of pursuing mutually economy, but also reorient Soviet poli- beneficial economic goals. tics. Although pragmatism has typically In Western Europe, France and Ger- taken 2 back seat to ideology in the So- many have battled each other periodi- viet Union, the leaders have demon- cally over the centuries, but armed con- strated that they can be pragmatic when flict between these two countries now circumstances require, as when they im- appears unlikely. It is difficult to imag- port grain from the United States, their ine,inaneconomicallyintegrated ideological rival. Europe, how either of these countries For the world as a whole, the past gen- could possibly attack the other. Within eration has seen an overwhelming move- North America, the United States, Can- ment toward militarization. Apart from ada, and Mexico have lived peacefully the heavy claim on public resources, the for generations. No armed forces face East-West conflict contributes to a psy- each other across national borders in chological climate of suspicion and dis- this area. Although conflicts exist here, trust that makes the cooperative, inter- they center around isolated issues such national address of new threats to the as acid rain, illegal immigration, and security of nations next to impossible. trade restrictions, which do not appear China and Argentina, which have al- likely to threaten their generally amiable ready cut the military's share of their relations. GNP in half, and Peru, which promises If ideology gives way to pragmatism, to do so, may provide the model for the as it is doing in China, then the conflicts future. If demilitarization could replace and insecurities bred by the ideological militarization,nationalgovernments distinctions between East and West can would be free to reorder their priorities, soften. Indeed, this ideological soften- and could return to paths of sustained ing appears to be coloring China's for- progress. eign policy, improving its relations with Ironically, for the United States and other countries and contributing to its the Soviet Union, maintaining a position reduction of military expenditures. of leadership may now depend on reduc- If the Soviet Union adopts the reforms ing military expenditures to strengthen needed to get its economy moving ahead their faltering economies. Acting thus in again, a similar ideological softening their own interests, they could set the may t esult. Turning to the market to al- stage for demilitarizing the world econ- locate resources and boost productivity omy. Once it starts, demilitarization could not only restructure the Soviet like militarizationcould feed on itself.

226 Notes

Chapter 1. A Generation of Deficits munication, September 1985; U.S. foreign assets from U.S. Department of Commerce, 1. Job loss estimates from Re tB. Historical Statistics of the United States Volume II Reich, "Reagan's Hidden 'Indust' Pol- (Washington, D.C.: annual). icy',"New York Times,August 4, 1985, and from tables prepared for the Congressional 5. Export information from International Joint Economic Committee by Bureau of Monetary Fund (IMF),International Financial Labor Statistics, Office of Employment and Statistics Yearbook 1985(Washington, D.C.: Unemployment Analysis, United States De- 1985). partment of Labor, Washington, D.C., June 7, 1985. 6. 'Japanese Diplomats Expand Global Ro1°,"Journal of Commerce,August 9, 1985. 2. Farm debt from U.S. Department of Ag- riculture (USDA), Economic Research Ser- 7. Military share of gross national product vice (ERS),Agricultural Finance: Outlook and in China from ACDA,World Military Expendi- Situation Report,Washington, D.C., Decem- tures and Arms Transfers. ber 1984; Charles F. McCoy, "Commercial 8. U.S. federal debt from U.S. Census Bu- Agriculture Banks' Woes From Failing Farm reau, Stafiasco? Abstract of the limed States 1985 Economy Intensify,"Wall StreetJournal, Sep- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- tember 5, 1985; farm foreclosures from Ro- ing Office, 1985); figures on total external nald L. Meekhof, USDA, ERS, Washington, debt of Third World nations from IMF,World D.C., private communication, Novenber 14, Economic Outlook(Washington, D.C.: April 1985. 1985). 3. Export information from U.S. Arms 9. U.S. military expenditures from Census Cuttrol and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), Bureau,Statistical Abstract;data for 1950-55 World Military Expenditures and Anns Transfers and 1985-86 fror. Office of Management 1985 (Washington, D.C.: 1985); per capita and Budget (OMB),The Budget of the United income from World Bank, World Development States Government(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Report 1985(New York: Oxford Ut.iversity Government Printing Office, variom years). Press, 1985). 10. U.S. f.gdget deficit and gross federal 4. Japanese net foreign assets derived debt from Census Bureau,Statistical Abstract; from Japan Statistical Bureau, apanStatistical debt for 1985-86 fromEconomic Report of the Yearbook(Tokyo: 1965), from Bank of Japan, President(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- Balance of Payments Monthly(Tokyo: April ment Printing Office, 1985). 1973), from Bank of Japan,External Assets and Liabilities of Japan(Tokyo: April 1981), and 11. Quoted in Karin Lissakers, "Dateline from Laura Knoy, Institute for International WallStreet:FaustianFinance,"Foreign Economics, Washington, D.C., private com- Affairs,Summer 1983.

227 (2/4 ) Notes 12. Ibid. 23. Oil import statistics from British .:-e- 13. Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, troleum Company. BP Statistical Revie., of World Energy (London: 1985). World Financial Markets, New York, Septem- ber/October 1985. 24. International Energy Agency, Energy Policies and Programmes of IEA Countries: 1984 14. :For a further discussion of the Third Review (Faris: Organisation for Economic World debt crisis and international banking, Co-operation and Development, 1985). see Lissakers, "Dateline Wall Street"; C. Fred Bergsten, William R. Cline, and John 25. For more information on Brazil's alco- Williamson, Bank Le ling to Developing Coun- hol fuels program, see Howard S. Geller, tries: The Policy Alternatives (Cambridge, Mass.: "Ethanol from Sugar Cane in Brazil," in An- MIT Press, 1985); Morgan Guaranty, World nual Reviews Inc., Annual Review of Energy, Financial Markets; World Bank, World Develop- VoL 10 (Palo Alto, Calif: 1985); South African ment Report. coal liquefaction from Emil Parente, Fluor Corporation, Anaheim, Calif., private com- 15. Morgan Guaranty,WorldFinancial munication, August 17, 1983. Markets. 26. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- 16. USDA, ERS, World Indices of Agricultural tion, World Motor Vehicle Data Book, 1984-85 and Food Production 1950-84 (unpublished Edition (Detroit, Mich.: 1985). printout) (Washington, D.C., 1985); cereal 27. For trends in oil-based electricity gen- import bill figure from U.N. Economic Com- eration, see Chapters 5 and 6. mission for Africa, "Report of the Sixth Meeting of the Preparatory Committee of the 28. World coal, oil, and natural gas pro- Whole," Addis Ababa, April 24, 1985. duction figures derived by Worldwatch Insti- tute from American Petroleum institute, 17. Quoted in Elaine Sciolino, "Chinese Basic Petroleum Data Book. Vol. 5, No. 2 (Wash- Official Asks End to Arms Race in Space," ington, D.C.: 1985), from U.S. Department New York Times, October 1, 1985. of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Ad- 18. Erik Eckholm, The Dispossessed of the ministration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review Earth. Land Reform and Sustainable Development (Washington, D.C.: March 1985), and from (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, DOE, EIA, Annual EnergyReview,1984 June 1979). (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- ing Office, 1985). i9. See Sandra Postel, "Protecting Forests from Air Pollution and Acid Rain," in Lester 29. "Natural Gas: World Status," Financial Times Energy Economist, March 1984. R. Brown et al., State of the World-1985 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1985). 30. For a discussion of trends in oil production, see Chapter 5. 20. See Chapter 4 for a full discussion of rangelands. 31. All agricultural productivity and per capita grain consumption trends in this sec- 21. For a discussion of trends in world fish tion from USDA, ERS, World Indices, unless catch, see Lester R. Brown, "Maintaining otherwise noted. World Fisheries," in Brown et al., Stat. of the IVorld- 1985. 32. Consumption of leguminous crops in India derived from "India's Agricultural Suc- 22. Fora discussion of worldwide soil loss, cess Story," USDA, ERS, Agricultural Outlook see Lester R. Brown, "Conserving Soils," in Washington, D.C., October 1985, and from Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World-1984 United Nations Food and Agriculture Orga- (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1984). nization, Production rearbook (Rome. 1983). 228 Notes (215) 33. Derived from USDA, Agricultural Statis- income distribution data from World Bank, tics 1984 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- World Development Report. ment Printing Office, 1984), and from Evelyn 47. Mexico's debt from Morgan Guaranty, Blazer, USDA, ERS, Washington, D.C., pri- World Financial Markets; infant mortality and vate communication, July 1985. income distribution data from World Bank, 34. Gerald M. Boyd, "U.S. Fights Euro- World Development Report. peans' Wheat Aid," New York Times, October 48. Per capita grain production trends in 17, 1985. India and China derived from USDA, ERS, 35. Frederick M. Surls, "Widening Scope World Indices. of Agricultural Reforms," in USDA, ERS, 49. For more information on the effects of China: Outlook and Situation Report, Washing- ton, D.C., uly 1985. smoking on life span and health, see Chapter 8; estimate of famine deaths in Africa from 36. Sevir, and Chinese grain production U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, "Sec- data from USDA, ERS, World Indices. ond Special Memorandum by the ECA Con - 37. For information on China's agricul- ferc'ce of Ministers: International Action for tural reform, including changes in procure- Relaunching the Initiative for Long-Term ment prices and shifting terms of trade, see Development and Economic Lirowthin Surls, "Widening Scope of Agricultural Re- Africa," Addis Ababa, April 25-29, 1985. forms." 50. Data on Soviet cigarette use cited in 38. Ibid. U.S. Department of Health and Human Ser- vices, Office of Smoking and Health, trans- 39. Terry Taylor, "China's Farmers Shift lated abstract of A.G. Shevchuk and R.N. Into High Gear," Foreign Agriculture, USDA, Tarasova, "The Organization of Antismok- Washington, D.C., April 1 b85. ing Education." Zdravookhraneniye Rossiyskoy 40. Ibid. Federatsii, Vol. 5, 1983; for a discussion of 41. Soviet grain production from USDA, declining life expectancy and the role of ERS, World Indices; grain import data from smoking and alcoholism-related illnesses in USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Foreign the Soviet Union, see Murray Feshbach, "Is- Agnculture Circular, FG- 13-8, Washington, sues in Soviet Health Problems," in Joint Eco- D.C., October 1985. nomic Committee, U.S. Congress, Soviet Economy in the 1980's: Problems and Prospects 42. Leslie H. Gelb, "'Gradual' Changes in (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- Soviet 5-Year Plan," New York Times, October ing Oir.ce, 1983); information on alcoholism 14, 1985. and smoking campaigns from Dr. Galina V. 43. Information on China's military bud- Sdasyuk, Senior Research Associate, Insti- get comes from ACDA, World Military Expen- tute of Geography, Academy of Sciences of ditures and Arms Transfers, and from private the USSR, Washington, D.C., private com- communication, Peng Fei Fei, Chinese Em- munication, July 23, 1985, and Dr. Sergey M. bassy, Washington, D.C., September 1985. Rogov, First Secretary, Institute of United States and Canadian Studies of the Academy 14. Data on Sri Lanka from World Bank, of Sciences of the USSR, Washington, D.C., World Development Report. private communication, October 15, 1985. 45. William U. Chandler, Investing in Chil- dren (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Insti- tute, June 1985). Chapter 2. Assessing Ecological Decline 46. Brazil's debt from Morgan Guaranty, 1. Ken Newcombe, An Economic Justificahon World Firic:.tal Markets, infant mortality and for Rural Afforestation. The Case of Ethiopia, En-

229 (216) Notes ergy Department Paper No. 16 (Washington, 1950-84 (unpublished printout) (Washing- D.C.: World Bank, 1984); F.H. Bormann, ton, D.C.: 1985). "Air Pollution and Forests: An Ecosystem Perspective," BioScience, July/August 1985. 13. For waterlogging and soil salinization trends, see Sandra Postel, Water: Rethinking 2. Newcombe, An Economic Justification. Management in an Age of Scarcity (Washington, 3. United Nations Development Program D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute,December (UNDP)/World Bank Energy Sector Assess- 1984); data on grain yields in Iran from ment Program, Ethiopia: Issues and Options in USDA, ERS, World Indices. the Energy Sector (Washington, D.C.: World 14. UNDP/World Bank, Ethiopia: Issues and Bank, 1984). Options. 4. Kenneth Newcombe, "Household En- 15. Centre for Science and Environment ergy Supply: The Energy Crisis That Is Here (CSE),TheStateof India'sEnvironment To Stay!" presented to the World Bank Sen- 1984-85 (New Delhi: 1985). ior Policy Seminar-Energy, Gabarone, Bo- tswana, March 18-22, 1985. 16. Ibid.; population data on Madhya Pra- desh from Alex Von Cube, Population Refer- 5. United Nations Food and Agriculture ence Bureau, Washington, D.C., private com- Organization (FAO), Forestry Resources Di- munication, November 8, 1985. vision,TropicalForestResources,Forestry Paper 30 (Rome: 1982); World Bank survey 17. National Academy of Sciences, Fire- from Gunter Schra am and David Jhirad, wood Crops: Shrubs and Tree Species for Energy "Sub-Saharan Africa Policy Paper-Energy" Production (Washington, D.C.: 1980); India's (draft), World Bank, Washington, D.C., Au- projected population from World Bank, gust 20, 1984. World Development Report 1985 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1985). 6. Schramm and Jhirad, "Sub-Saharan Africa Policy Paper." 18. Andrew Csepel, "Czechs and the Eco- logical Balance," New Scientist, September 27, 7. Ibid. 1984. 8. Bormann, "Air Pollution and Forests." 19. Ibid. 9. Livestock data from FAO, Production 20. EnvironmentalResourcesLimited, Yearbook (Rome. various years); population Acid Rain. A Review uf the Phenomenon in the EEC data from United Nations, Department of In- and Europe (London: Graham & Trotman ternational Economic and SocialA;Fairs, Ltd., 1983). World Population and Its Age-Sex Composition By Country, 1950-2000 (New York: 1980), and 21. Anders Wijkman and Lloyd Timber- Population Reference Bureau, 1983 World lake, Natural Disasters: Acts of God or Acts of Man? (Washington, D.C.: Earthscan/Inter- PopulationDataSheet(Washington, D.C.: i983). national Institute for Environment and De- velopment, 1984). 10. Livestock data from FAO, Production Yearbook. 22. "Wound in the World," Asiaweek, July 13, 1984. 1 1 . Southern African Development Coor- 23. Information on tropical forest fires in dination Conference, SADCC Agriculture: To- ward 2000 (Rome: FAO, i984). Ivory Coast and Ghana from World Bank, "The 1983-84 Drought in Sub-Saharan 12. U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture Africa-Short Term Impact-Desertification (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS), and Other Long-Term Issues" (draft), Wash- World Indices of Agricultural and Food Production ington, D.C., May 1984.

2 3 o Notes (217) 24. Ibid. 35. Situation in Nouakchott, Mauritania, from Brian Urquhart, United Nations Under- 25. Ibid. secretary General for Special Political Affairs, 26. Ibid. private communication, May 19, 1985; refu- 27. Land productivity from USDA, ERS, gee flows reported in U.N. Office of Emer- World Ind ices; population data from Popula- gency Operations, African Emergency Bulletin. tion Reference Bureau, 1985 World Population 36. U.N. Office of Emergency Operations, Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1985); per African Emergency Bulletin; U.S. Committee for capita income from World Bank, World Devel- Refugees, World Refugee Survey. opment Report. 37. U.N. Office of Emergency Operations, 28. Population data from Population Ref- African Emergency Bulletin. erence Bureau, 1985 World Population Data 38. Walter Truett Anderson, "The Real Sheet . Domino Theory in Central America," Pacific 29. George R. Gardner, "Saudia Arabia News Service, August 9-16, 1984. Drives For Agricultural Self-Sufficiency: A Political Goal With High Economic. Costs," 39. Robert S. Kandel, "Mechanisms Gov- in USDA, ERS, Middle East and North Africa: erning the Climate of the Sahel: A Survey of Outlook and SituationReport,Washington, Recent Modelling and Observational Stud- D.C., April 1985. ies," Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Permanent Inter- 30. William I. Jones and Roberto Egli, state Committee for Drought Control in the Farming Systems in Africa, Technical Paper No. Sahel, Paris, October 1984. 27 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1984). 40. Jean Gorse, "Desertification in the 31. "FoodPriceRiotingPersistsin Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of West Sudan," New York Times, March 29, 1985; for Africa" (draft), World Bank, Washington, information on the effects of Sudan's heavy D.C., February 1985. debt burden see USDA, ERS, Agricultural Out- look, Washington, D.C., October 1985. 32. Tunisian food riots and debt burden Chapter 3. Increasing Water Efficiency discussed in USDA, ERS, Middle East and 1. Donald Jansen, "Kean Adds Restric- North Afnca . tions on Water Use in Jersey," New York 33. Warren Hoge, "Brazil's Poor Rair''ng Times, May 17, 1985; Wayne King, "Severe Food Stores in Rio Area," New York Times, Drought Hits Southwest," New York Times, September 11, 1983; Mac Margolis, "Brazil June 6, 1984; "Managua to Ration Water," Dust Bowl Five Times the Size of Italy," New York Times, December 20, 1984; Deng Chnsttan Science Monitor, August 26, 1983. Shulin, "Tianjinthe CitythatNeeded Water," China Reconstructs, February 1982. 34. Assessment of displaced people from United Nations, "Report on the Emergency 2. Alfred G. Cuzen, "Appropriators Ver- Situation in Africa," New York, February 22, sus Expropriators: The Political Economy of 1985; information on Ethiopian and Mozam- Water in the West," in Terry L. Anderson, bican refugees from United Naticas Office of ed., Water Rights. Scarce Resource Allocation, Bu- Emergency Operations inAfrica, African reaucracy, and the Environment (San Francisco: Emergency Bulletin, July 15, 1985, and from Pacific Institute for Public Policy Research, U.S. Committee for Refugees, T"orld Refugee 1983); number of dams and projects from Survey 1984 (New York: American Council U.S. Congressional Budget Off Zfficient for Nationalities Service, 1984). Investments in Water Resources: Issues and Options

231 (218) Notes

(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- enth Annual New Mexico Water Conference, ing Office, 1983). New Mexico Water Resources Research In- 3. For a more thorough discussion of stitute,LasCruces,N.M.,April1982; emerging water problems, see Sandra Postel, Kenneth Carver, Assistant .vlanager, High "Managing Freshwater Supplies," in Lester Plains Underground Water Conserviion R. Brown et al.,State of the World -1985(New District No. 1, Lubbock, Tex., privatecom- York: W.W. Norton and Co., 1985). munication, March 25, 1985; payback from Comer Tuck, Texas Department of Water 4. U.S. water use from Wayne B. Sol leyet Resources, Austin, Tex., private communica- al.,Estimated Use of Water in the United States in tion, July 10, 1985. 1980(Alexandria, Va.: U.S. Geological Sur- vey, 1983). 10. Background and basic features of drip irrigation from Kobe Shoji, "Drip Irriga- 5. Irrigated area and efficiency estimates tion," ScientificAmerican,November 1977; see from W.R. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drain- also Sterling Davis and Dale Bucks, "Drip age in the World," paper presented at the Irrigation," in Claude H. Pair et al., eds., irri- International Conference on Food and gation (Silver Spring, Md.: The Irrigation As- Water, Texas A.& M. University, College Sta- sociation, 1983); estimated water savings tion,Tex., May 26-30,1985; see also, from J.S. Abbott, "Micro IrrigationWorld Mohamed T. El-Ashry et al., "Salinity Pollu- Wide Usage,"1CID Bulletin,January 1984. tion from Irrigated Agriculture,"Journal of 1 1 . Current Israeliestimates from Y. Soil and Water Conservation,Ja'ivary/February 1985. Kahana, Israel Ministry of Agriculture, Water Commission, Tel Aviv, Israel, privatecom- 6. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainage." munication, April 28, 1985. 7. For a good overview of irrigation effi- 12. 1983 U.S. drip area from "1983 Irriga- ciency, see E.G. Kruse and D.F. Heermann, tion Survey,"Irrigation Journal,1983; current "Implications of Irrigation System Efficien- area worldwide from Abbott, "Micro Irriga- cies,"Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, tion," plus known increases in the United November/December 1977. States from the "1983 Irrigation Survey" and in Israel from Kahana, private communica- 8. Wayne Clyma et al.,Land Leveling, Plan- tion. ning Guide No. I, Water Management Syn- thesis Project, prepared in cooperation with 13. National Academy of Sciences,More U S. Agency for International Development, Water for Arid Lands: Promising Technologies and Fort Collins, Colo., July 1981; California De- ResearchOpportunities(Washington,D.C.: partment of Water Resources,Water Conserva- 1974); Christiaan Gischler and C. Fernandez tion in California(Sacrzmento, Calif.: Califor- Jauregui, "Low-Cost Techniques for Water nia Resources Agency, 1984). Conservation and Management inLatin America,"Nature and Resources, 9. For background on sprinkler and other July/Septem- ber 1984. irrigation systems, see Kcnneth D. Frederick and James C. Hanson,Water for Western Agri- 14. Investment cost from Rangeley, "Irri- culture(Washington, D.C.: Resources for the gation and Drainage"; World Bank,World De- Future, 1982); conventional sprinkler effi- velopment Report 1983(New York: Oxford ciency from Kruse and Heerman, "Implica- University Press, 1983). tions of Irrigation System Efficiencies"; for 15. J. Alwis et al.,The Rajangana Irrigation discussion of LEPA, see William M. Lyle, Scheme, Sri Lanka. 1983 Diagnostic Analysts, "Water Saving Techniques," in Hope for the prepared incooperationwiththeU.S. High Plains, Proceedings of the Twenty-Sev- AgencyforInternationalDevelopment, 232 Notes (219) Water Management Synthesis Project, Re- 25. J. Doorenbos and A.H. Kassam, Yield port No. 19, Colorado State University, Fort Response to Water (Rome: U.N. Food and Agri. Collins, Colo., December 1983. culture Organization, 1979). 16. Robert Chambers, "Food and Water 26. Hiler and Howell, "Irrigation Op- as if People Mattered: A Professional Revolu- tions." tion," paper presented It the International 27. Doorenbos and Kassam, Yield Response Conference on Food Water. to Water; M.A. Kahn et al., "Development of 17. See California Department of Water Supplies & Sanitation in Saudi Arabia," Afri- Resources, Water Conservation in California; for can Technical Review, June 1984. a more technical discussion, see Edward A. 28. Carl N. Hodges and Wayne L. Collins, Hiler and Terry A. Howell, "Irrigation Op- "Future Food Production: The Potential is tions to Avoid Critical Stress: An Overview." Infinite, the Reality May Not Be," Proceedings in H.M. Taylor et al., Limitations to Efficient of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 128, Water Use in Crop Production (Madison, Wisc.: No. 1, 1984; James W. O'Leary, "The Role of American Society of Agronomy, 1983); gypsum block test results from Gail Richardson, Halophytes inIrrigated Agriculture," in Richard C. Staples, ed., Salinity Tolerance in Saving Water from the Ground Up (New York: INFORM, 1985). Plants: Strategies for Crop Improvement (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1984). 18. Gaston Mahave and Jorge Dominguez, "Experiments at Farm Level to Introduce 29. National Research Council, Amaranth: Technology in Irrigation: Its Influence on Modern Prospects for an Ancient Crop (Washing- Production and Water Resources," in Brazil- ton, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1984); ian National Committee, Transactions of the 1st C.S. Kauffman, Amaranth Gram Production Regional Pan-Aniencan Conference, Vol. 1 (Sal- Guide 1984 (Emmaus, Pa.: Rodale Press, vador (Bahia), Brazil: October 1984). 1984); Wayne W. Applegate, Post Rock Nat- ural Grains, Luray, Kans., private communi- 19. Irrigation costs from Rangeley, "Irri- cation,February19,1985;CharlesD. gation and Drainage." McNeal, Paradise, Kans., private communica- 20. B.A. Stewart and Earl Burnett, "Water tion, February 5,1985; David Pimentel, Conservation Technology in Rainfed and Ithaca, N.Y., private communication, June 6, Dryland Agriculture," paper presented at the 1985. InternationalConference on Food and 30. Culp/Wesner/Culp, Water Reuse and Water. Recycling: Evaluation of Needs and Potential, Vol. 21. Ibid. 1 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Interior, 1979); Ronald J. Turner, "Examin- 22. Robert S. Loomis, "Crop Manipula- ing the Opportunities for Recycle and 14 use tions for Efficient Use of Water: An Over- of Chemical Industry Wastewaters," in Pro- view," in Taylor et al., Limitations to Efficient ceedings of the Water Reuse Symposium II, Vol. 1 Water Use. (Denver, Colo.: AWWA Research Founda- 23. National Academy of Sciences, More tion, 1981). Water for And Lands; United Nations Environ- 31. Armco example cited in Robert A. ment Programme, Ratn and Stormwater Har- Hamilton, "What Will We Do When the Well vesting in Rural Areas (Dublin: Tycooly Inter- Runs Dry?" Harvard Business Review, Novem- national Publishing, 1983). ber/December 1984; L. Rakosh, "Water 24. Nat.jna! Academy of Sciences, More Reuse in the American Israeli Paper Mills, Water for And Lands; see also Chapter 10 in Hadera," in Israqua '78: Proceedings of the Inter- this volume. national Conference on Water Systems and Applica-

2 3 3 7,.

(220) Notes lions (Tel Aviv: Israel Centre of Waterworks 41. John F. Donovan and John E. Bates, Appliances, 1978); Soviet citation from Yu P. Guidelines for Water Reuse (Cincinnati, Oh.: Belichenko and T.L. Dolgopolova, "Creation U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency, of Closed Watc.r Management Systems at In- 1980). dustrial Enterprises," Water Resources, July 1984, translated from original article in Vod- 42. Charles P. Gerba et al., "Virus Re- nye Resursy, January 1982. moval During Land Application of Wastewa- ter: Comparison of Three Projects," in Future 32. Sandra Gay Yulke et al., "Water Reuse of Water Reuse; Crook, "Water Reuse in Cali- in the Pulp and Paper Industry in Califor- fornia." nia," in Water Reuse Symposium II; for other examples, see Leonard B. Antosiak and 43. D.E. Bourne and G.S. Watermeyer, Charles A. Joh, "Industrial Water Conserva- "Proposed Potable Reuse-An Epidemiolog- tion Within the Great Lakes Region: An ical Study in Cape Town," in Water Reuse Sym- posium II; William C. Lauer et al., "Denver's Overview," Journal AWWA, January 1981. Potable Water Reuse Project: Current Cta- 33. Swedish Preparatory Committee for cus," in Future of Water Reuse; Lee Wilson & the U.N. Water Conference, Water in Sweden Associates, "Water Supply Alternatives for El (Stockholm: Ministry of Agriculture, 1977). Paso," prepared for El Paso Water Utilities Public Service Board, Santa Fe, N.M., No- 34. Saul Arlosoroff, "Water Management vember 1981; Lee Wilson, Lee Wilson & As- Policies Under Scarce Conditions,"pre- sociates, Santa Fe, N.M., private communica- sented at Water for the 21st Century: Will It tion, June 1985. Be There? Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Tex., April 1984; see also Nina Selbst, 44. Carl R. Bartone and Henry J. Salas, "Water Management in Israel." paper pre- "DevelopingAlternativeApproachesto sented at 1 Congreso Nacional de Derecho Urban Wastewater Disposal in Latin America de Aguas, Murcia, Spain, May 1982. aid the Caribbean," Bulletin of the Pan Ameri- can Health Organization, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1984. 35. Gast6n Mendoza Gamez and Fran- cisco Flores Herrera, "Mexico City's Master 45. Tucson Water, "Conservation Pro- Plan for Reuse," in Water Reuse Symposium ll. grams," Tucson, Ariz., undated. 46. Ibid. 36. Selbst, "Water Management inIs- rael"; Aaron Meron, "Experience with Is- 47. Ibid., Tucson Water, "Energy Innova- rael's Reclamation Systems," in Future of tion through Applied Technology," Tucson, Water Reuse: Proceedings of the Water Reuse Sym- Ariz.,1984; Janet Garcia, Tucson Water, posium III, Vol. 1 (Denver, Colo: AWWA Re- Tucson, Ariz., private communication, April search Foundation, 1985). 19, 1985. 37. Survey data from Culp/Wesner/Culp, 48. See American Water Works Associa- Water Reuse and Recycling. tion, Water Conservation Management (Denver, Colo.: 1981). 38. California figures from James Crook, "Water Reuse in California," and Kenneth 49. West Germany reference from World W. Willis, "The Future of Water Reclamation Environment Report,April4,1984; Scan- in California," in Future of Water Reuse. dinavia reference from Robert L. Siegrist, "Minimum-Flow Plumbing Fixtures," Journal 39. John R. Sheaffer and Leonard A. Ste- AWWA, July 1983. vens, Future Water (New York: William Mor- row and Company, 1983). 50. Donald W. Lystra et al., "Energy Con- servation Opportunities in Municipal Water 40. Ibid. and Wastewater Systems," Journal AWWA,

234 Notes (221)

April1981; California study from Jimmy David L. Wilson and Harry W. Ayer, "The Koyasako, "Water Conservation and Waste- Cost of Water in Western Agriculture," Eco- water Flow ReductionIs It Worth IC 'in nomic Research Service, U.S. Department of Dynamac Corporation, ed., Proceedings of the Agriculture, Washington, D.C., July 1982. National Water Conservation Conference on Pub- For historical background, see Gary Weath- licly Supplied Potable Water (Washington, D.C.: erford and Helen Ingram, "Legal-Institu- U.S. Department of Commerce, 1982). tional Limitations on Water Use," in Ernest A. Engelbert and Ann Foley Scheuring, eds., 51. Estimate of savings from Brown and Water Scarcity: Impacts on Western Ag:-...:41'..re Caldwell (Inc.), Residential Water Conservation (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Projects (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department Press, 1984). of Housing and Urban Development, 1984). The report assumes an electricity cost of 70 59. Study described in United Nations, per kilowatt-hour. Efficiency and Distributional Equity in the Use and Treatment of Water: Guidelines for Pricing and 52. Case is described in U.S. Geological Regulations (New York: 1980). Survey (USGS), National Water Summary 1983 Hydrologic Events and Issues (Washington, 60. Loren D. Mellendorf, "The Water D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, Utility Industry and Its Problems," Public 1984) and in Conservation Foundation, State Utilities Fortnightly, March 17, 1983. For a of the Environment: An Assessment at Mid-Decade good discussion of this issue, see William E. (Washington, D.C.: 1984). Martin et al., Saving Water in a Desert City (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Fu- Re- 53. "Runaway Water: TheLost ture, 1984). source," World Water, November 1983; Fred Pearce and Mick Hamer, "The Empire's Last 61. W.D. Watson et al., Water 2000: Agri- Stand," New Scientist, May 12, 1983. cultural Water Demand and Issues (Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, 54. AustriacitationfromF.Auzias, 1983); U.N. Economic Commissionfor "Economie d'Eau et Lutte contre le Gaspil- Europe, Policies and Strategies for Rational Use of lage," Aqua, Vol. 5, 1983; Manila program Water in the ECE Region (New York: United described in "Leak Detectives Boost Manila Nations, 1983); Gaylord V. Skogerboe and Supply," World Water, November 1983. George E. Radosevich, "Future Water Devel- 55. Latin American usage rates from E. opment Policies," Water Supply and Manage- Glenn Wagner, "The Latin American Ap- ment, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1982. For a discussion of proach to Improving Water Supplies," Jour- water markets, see Terry L. Anderson, The nal A WWA, April 1983; Latin American pro- Water Crisis: Ending the Policy Drought (Balt;- jects from Bartone and Salas, "Developing more, Md.: The Johns Hopkins University Alternative Approaches to Urban Wastewa- Press, 1983). ter Disposal." 62. Watson et al., Water 2000; California 56. African programs from E.J. Schiller, Department of Water Resources, Water Con- "Water and Health in Africa," Water Interna- servation in California; "Colorado Rejects 'Use tional, June 1984. It or Lose It'," U.S. Water News, July 1985. 57. Laurence J.C. Ma and Liu Changming, 63. California Department of Water Re- "Water Resources Development and Its En- sources, Water Conservation in California; Rob- vironmental Impact in Beijing," China Geogra- ert Stavins Trading Conservation Investments for pher, No. 12, 1985. Water (Berkeley, Calif.: Environmental De- fense Fund, 1983). 58 Share paid by U.S. farmers from Con- gressional Budget Office, Efficient Investments, 64. Stavins, Trading Conservation Investments.

235 (222) Notes 65. Tony Profumo, Parsons Corporation, sources in Central Asia and Southern Ka- Pasadena,Calif.,private communication, zakhstan," Soviet Geography, June 1982. July 1985. 73. Ibid. 66. Sadiqul I. Bhuiyan, "Water Technol- ogy for Food Production: Expectations and 74. Ibid. Realitiesin the Developing Countries," 75. Office of Natural Resources,"Water paper presented at the International Confer- Program for Texas Agriculture," Depart- ence on Food and Water; Rangeley, "Irriga- ment of Agriculture, Austin, Tex., December tion and Drainage." See also MichaelCross, 1984; Rick Piltz, Texas Office of NaturalRe- "Irrigation's Role in Solving the Food Cri- sources, Austin, Tex., private communica- sis," New Scientist, May 9, 1985. tion, June 1985. 67. Yearly groundwateruse from Sol ley et 76. Water use savings from Office ofNatu- al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States; ral Resources, "Water Program forTexas depletion figures from USGS, National Water Agriculture"; Corps findings from High Summary 1983. Plains Associates, Six-State High PlainsOgal- lala Aquifer Regional Resources Study 68. Projections from Arizona Department (Austin, Tex.: 1982); quote from Jim Hightower,"In- of Water Resources, "Proposed Manage- cenz:ve is Needed to Stretch Water Supply," ment Plan: First Management Period 1980- U.S. Water News, February 1915. 1990," Phoenix Active ManagementArea, 1984, and companion document forTucson. 69. Arlosoroff, "Water Management Poli- Chapter 4. Managing Rangelands cies." 1. Estimate of ruminant populations from 70. Estimated savings are forcommon wa- United Nations Food and Agriculture Orga- ter-efficient fixtures given in Brown and nization (FAO), Production Yearbook (Rome: 1984). Caldwell, Residential Water Conservation Projects. Calculated savings assume that the entire in- 2. Society forRangeManagement, crease in population between 1985 and the "Rangelands Can Be Forever" (promotional year 2000 would be using the more efficient brochure), Denver, Colo., undated. fixtures, as well as 15 percent of the existing 3. Based on data from L.E. Rodin, population (because of remodeling,or pur- N.I. chases of new homes or new appliances). No Bazilevich, and N.N. Rozov, "Productivity of attempt was made to discount for states with the World's Main Ecosystems," in National Academy of Sciences, Productivity of World water-efficient plumbing codes alreadyin effect. Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: 1975). 4. R. Dennis Child et al., Arid andSemiarid 71. Diversion plans described in O.A.Ki- bal'chich and N.I. Koronkevich, "Some of Lands: Sustainable Use and Management in Devel- oping Countries (Morrilton, Ark.: Winrock the Results and Tasks of Geographic Investi- In- ternational, October 1984); NationalRe- gations on the Water-Transfer Project," So- searchCouncil, Board on Science and viet Geography, December 1983; cost estimate Technology for International Development, from Philip M. Micklin, "Recent Develop- Environmental Change in the West African Sahel ments in Large-Scale Water Transfers in the (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, USSR," Soviet Geography, April 1984. 1983). 72. Based on figures and discussionin 5. H. Bremen and C.T. de Wit, "Range- A.S. Kes' et al., "The Present State and Fu- land Productivity and Exploitation inthe ture Prospects of Using Local Water Re- Sahel," Science, September 30, 1983. 236 , 17-,, 'Yr

Notes (223 ) 6. Child et al., kid and Semiarid Lands. 16. Lloyd Timberlake, Africa in Crisis: The Causes, the Cures of Environmental Bankruptcy 7. FAO, Production Yearbook (Rome: vari- (Washington, D.C.: Earthscan/International ous years). Institute for Environment and Development, 8. Estimate of share of ruminants raised in 1985). conjunction with farming is from Winrock In- 17. Bremen and de Wit, "Rangeland Pro- ternational, Annual Report 1984 (Morrilton, ductivity and Exploitation in the Sahel." Ark.:1984); conversion of grasslands to farming is discussed in John F. Richards, 18. Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines (New "Global Patterns of Land Conversion," Envi- York: Oxford University Press, 1981). ronment, November 1984. 19. For a thorough history of ranching in 9. Area of pastures and forage crops in Latin America, see Grigg, Agricultural Systems. United States from U.S. Department of Agri- 20. Susanna B. Hecht, "Cattle Ranching 41 culture (USDA), Agricultural Statistics 1984 Development in the Eastern Amazon: Evalu- 'V` (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- ation of a Development Policy," Ph.D disser- kt ing Office, 1984); share of roughage con- tation, University of California, Berkeley, sumed by livestock from USDA, An Assessment 1982. of the Forest and Rangeland Situation in the United 21. Norman Myers, "The Hamburger States, Forest Resource Report No. 22 (Wash- Connection: How Central America's Forests ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Become North America's Hamburgers," Office, 1981); data on India from William Ambio, Vol. X, No. 1, 1981; Norman Myers, Hansel, "Future Agricultural Technology Conversion of Tropical Moist Forests (Washing- and Resource Conservation: Beef and Dairy ton, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, Cattle, Sheep, Goats, Swine, and Poultry," in 1980). Burton C. English et al., eds., Future Agricul- turalTechnologyandResourceConservation 22. Central America data from Myers, (Ames: Iowa State University Press, 1984). "The Hamburger Connection"; Amazonia data from Hecht, "Cattle Ranching Develop- 10. D.B. Grigg, The Agricultural Systems of ment." the World (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1974). 23. USDA, Agricultural Statistics (Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Priiting Office, 11. USDA, Assessment of the Forest and Range- various years); USDA, Foreign Agricultural land Situation. Service, World Livestock and Poultry Situation 12. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bu- (FL&P- l), Washington, D.C., April 1985. reau of Land Management (BLM), Managing 24. For an overview of the ecological theNation's Public Lands FiscalY'ar 1984 effects of forest clearing for pasture, see (Washington, D.C.: 1984). Susanna Hecht, "Cattle Ranching in the 13. Roy N. Van Arsdall, "Discussion," in Eastern Amazon: Environmental and Social Implications," in En- Aio F. Moran, ed., The English et al., Future Agricultural Technology. Dilemma of Amazonian Development (Boulder, 14. Child et al., Arid and Semiarid Lands; Colo.: Westview Press, 1982), and Philip M. Stephen Sandford, Wanagement of Pastoral De- Fearnside, "The Effects of Cattle Pasture on velopment in the Third World (New York: John Soil Fertility in the Brazilian Amazon: Conse- Wiley & Sons, 1983). quences for Beef Production Sustainability," Tropical Ecology, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1980. 15. InternationalLivestock Center for Africa (ILCA), ILCA Annual Report 1983 25. Estimate of cattle losses in Mongolia

..:Jis Ababa: 1984). from Jacob A. Hoefer and Patricia Jones Tsu-

23 7 (224) Notes

chitani, Animal Agriculture in China (Washing- Debates (Johannesburg), South Africa, May ton, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1980); 15, 1985. losses in Africa during the early seventies discussed in Child et al., Arid and Semiarid Lands; 35. Chris Maser, "Rangelands, Wildlife for a contemporary example of the social Technology, and Human Desires," in Office consequences of animal losses, see Michael of Technology Assessment (OTA), U.S. Con- Asher, "In Sudan's Dying Deserts," New Sci- gress, Technologies to Benefit Agriculture and entist, April 4, 1985. Wildlife-Workshop Proceedings (Washington, D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, 26. Quoted in Philip M. Boffey, "Spread 1985). of Deserts Seen as a Catastrophe Underlying 36. ILCA, ILCA Annual Report 1983. Famine," New York Times, January 8, 1985. 37. Guido Gryseels and Getachew Asame- 27. Jack A. Mabbutt, "A New Global As- new, "Links Between Livestock and Crop sessment of the Status and Trends of Deser- Production in the Ethiopian Highlands," tification," Environmental Conservation, Sum- mer 1984. ILCA Newsletter (Addis Al-aba), April 1905. 38. For a discussion of alternative grazing 28. Jean Gorse, "Desertification in the strategies, see OTA, Impact of Technologieson Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of West U.S.Cropland andRangelandProductivity Africa" (draft), World Bank, Washington, (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin- D.C., February 1985. ting Office, 1982); for a broader discussion of 29. Child et al., Arid and Semiarid Lands. ecologically based grazing practices,see Allan Savory, "Holistic Resource Manage- 30. Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the ment," presented to University of Wyoming Commons," Science, December 13, 1968; for Conference on Holistic Ranch Management, a contrary view of the allocation of common Laramie, Wyo., May 28-30, 1985. resources by pastoral societies, see Sandford, Management of Pastoral Development, and Je.-e 39. The Voisin method is discussed in Lee Gilles and Keith Jamtgaard, "The Com- William A. Murphy and David T. Dugdale, "The Voisin Pasture Management System," monsReconsidered,"Rangelands, April 1982. New England Fanner, April 1984, and in Sa- vory, "Holistic Resource Management." 31. Sandford, Management of Pastoral Devel- opment . 40. Kirin N. Shelat, "Protecting the Small- Scale Dairyman," Ceres, December 1984. ?2. Ibid.; U.S. Department of the Interior, 41. Ibid. BLM, 50 Years of Public Land Management (Washington, D.C.: 1984). 42. The Hema system is discussed in Na- tionalResearchCouncil, Environmental 33. For an overview of grazing feeson Change; in DotIglas L. Johnson, "Desertifica- public rangelands, see USDA and U.S. De- tion and Nomadic Pastoral Development," in partment of the Interior, 1985 Grazing Fee Re- E.T. Bartlett and Neville Dyson-Hudson, view and Evaluation Draft Report (Washington, eds., The Man and the Biospare Program in Graz- D.C.: 1985); for a critique of the currentgraz- ing Lands (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Depart- ing fee structure, see Katherine Barton, ment of State, U.S. Man and the Biosphere "Wildlife on Bureau of Land Management Program, 1980); and in Child et al.. And and Lands," in National Audubon Society, Audu- Semiarid Lands. bon Wildlife Report 1985 (New York: 1985). 43. China's livestock economy and the 34. Sarel Hayward, Minister of Agricul- role of grasslands are discussed in Hoefer ture and Water Supply, House of Assembly and Tsuchitani, Animal Agriculturein China;

238 Notes (225 )

and in Dillard H. Gates, "A Dynamic Ecosys- duction estimates are based on "First Half tem Rangelands, Livestock, and People in Oil Flow Fails to Sustain 1984 Increase," Oil Northeastern China," in Larry D. White and and Gas Journal, September 9, 1985. James A. Tiedeman, eds., Proceedings of the In- 3. BPC, BP Statistical Review of World En- ternationalRangelandsResources Development ergy; oil/GNP figure from International En- Symposium,Salt Lake City, Utah, February ergy Agency (IEA), Annual Oil Market Report, 13-14,1985; announcement of China's 1984 (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co- grassland law from "Press Hails Law to Save operation and Development, 1985). Grasslands," China Daily, June 21, 1985; data .) on grassland revegetatio from "Grass Plant- 4. BPC, BP Statistical Review of World Energy . ing," China Daily, January 23, 1985. 5. John H. Lichtblau, "OPEC Oil in a Glob- 44. David Hoperaft, "Wildlife Land Use at al Context: The Next 10 Years," presented at Athi River, Kenya: A Perspective and Up- seminar on The Future of OPEC, The Centre date," Wildlife Ranching and Research, Athi for OPEC Studies, Caracas, Venezuela, April River, Kenya, September 1985; for a divan,- 25, 1985. sion of game ranching, see OTA, 'cater- 6. Daniel Yergin, The Reshaping of the Oil Related Technologies for Sustainable Agriculture in industry (Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge En- Arid/Semiarid Lands: Selected Foreign Experience ergy Research Associates, 1985). (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- ing Office, 1983); for a dated but useful intro- 7. West quotedinWilliamDrozciiak, duction to the economic; of game ranching, "OPEC Fails to Reach Agreement," Washing- see Robert E. McDowell et al., "Game or Cat- ton Post, July 8, 1985. tle for Meat Production on Kenya Range- 8. Peter Behr, "Saudis Said to Boost Oil lands?" Department of Animal Science, Cor- Output," Washington Post,September 18, nell University, Ithaca, N.Y., October 1983. 1985. 9. OPEC revenues from Petroleum Intelli- Chapter 5. Moving Beyond Oil gence Weekly, February 23, 1981, and April 23, 1984; Oxford Institute study described in 1. World oil statistics in this chapter, un- Roger Vielvoye, "OPEC Oil Outlook," Oil less otherwise noted, are from British Petro- and Gas Journal, May 27, 1985. leum Company (BPC), BP Statistical Review of 10. Richard J. Meislin, "Mexico Encoun- World Energy (London: 1985). The average ters Problem of Growth," New York Times, world oil price used here is a composite June 10, 1985; "Hard Times Hit OPEC Oil figure, based on a weighted average of do- Producers," Journal of Commerce, August 20, mestic and imported crude oil at the U.S. 1985; Sandra Feustel, "Lower Oil Prices End refinery gate as listed in U.S. Department of 'Gold Dust Days' on Persian Gulf," Washing- Energy (DOE), Energy Information Adminis- ton Post, January 15, 1984; David B. Ottaway, tration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review (Wash- "Saudi Arabia: The Boom Ends" (a series), ington, D.C.: August 1985). Washington Post, November 25-27, 1984. 2. BPC, BF Statistical Review of World Energy. 11. DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Review 1984 The oil production figures in the text include (Washington, D C.: 1985); Edward Boyer, about 4 million barrels per day of natural gas "Winners and Losers from Cheaper Oil," liquids. The data illustrated in Figure 6-1 are Fortune, November 26, 1984. fromtheAmerican PetroleumInstitute (API), Basic Petroleum Data Book, Vol. 5, No. 2 12. API, Basic Petroleum Data Book; Interna- (Washington, D.C.: 1985), and do not in- tional Monetary Fund, International Financial clude gi.s liquids. Preliminary 1985 oil pro- Statistics (Washington, D.C.: March 1985).

239 (226) Notes 13. World Bank estimate reportedin 22. DOE, Office of Policy Planning and Philip K. Verleger, Jr., CRA Petroleum Econom- Analysis, "Energy Use Trends in the United ics Monthly (Charles River Associates Bos- States,1972-1989,"draft,Washington, ton, Mass.), May 14, 1985. D.C., May 1985; Marc Ross, "Industrial En- 14. "Soviets Demand More from East Bloc ergy Conservation," Natural Resources Forum, Allies," Washington Post, June 17, 1985. April 1984. 15. Ed A. Hewett, Energy, Economics, and 23. William U. Chandler, Energy Productiv- Foreign Policy in the Soviet Union (Washington, ity: Key to Environmental Protection and Economic D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1984). Progress (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- stitute, January 1985). 16. World Bank, World Development Report 24. Ibid. 1984 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984); Brazil figure from Howard S. Geller, 25. IEA, Fuel Efficiency of Passenger Cars American Council for an Energy-Efficient (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-opera- Economy, Washington, D.C., privatecom- tion and Development, 1984). munication, June 21, 1985. 26. lEA, Energy Policies and Programmes of 17. Clyde H. Farnsworth, "Cuban Report lEA Countries: 1984 Review (Paris: Organisa- Is Candid On Economic Burdens," New York tion for Economic Co-operation and Devel- Tunes, June 5, 1985. opment, 1985); World Bank, Energy Transition in Developing Countries. 18. World Bank, The Energy Transitionzit Developing Countnes (Washington,D.C.: 27. Jose Goldemberg et al., An End-Use 1983). Oriented Global Energy Strategy (Princeton, Nj.: Princeton Center for Energy and Environ- 19. Efficiency's contribution estimated by mental Studies, 1985). comparing the 36 percent decline in the oil/GNP ratio with the 19 percent decline in 28. IEA, Coal Information 1984 (Paris: On, the energy/GNP ratio between 1973 and ganisation for Economic Co-operation and 1984. Development, 1984) 29. Sandra Postel, "Protecting Forests 20. U.S. energy efficiency improvement from Air Pollution and Acid Rain," in Lester measured by change in energy/GNP ratio, R. Brown et al., State of the World-1985 (New from figures in DOE, EIA, Monthly Energy Re- York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1985); figure view. They nhow a slightly higher improve- on ment than do the International Energy East German forests from Susan Tifft, "Europe's Dying Forests," Time (Interna- Agency figures listed in Table 6-3. Dollar tional Edition), September 16, 1985. saving from increased efficiency is basedon a total 1984 energy bill of $603 billion ($8.15 30. World natural gas production andre- per million BTU), which would have been serve figures from BPC, B? Statistical Review $790 billion if the energy/GNP ratio hadre- of World Energy; "Natural Gas: World Status," mained at the 1973 level and the country had Financial Times Energy Economist, March 1984; used 96 quadrillion BTUs of energy instead World Bank estimate from Marcia A. Parker, of the 74 quadrillion BTUs actually used. "Less Developed Countries Push Campaigns to Tap Natural Gas," Oil and Gas Journal, June 21. Eric Hirst et al., "Recent Changes in 1985. For intormation on the long-termpo- U.S. Energy Consumption: What Happened tential of natural gas, see Office of Technol- and Why," in Ann..: Reviews Inc., Annual ogy Assessment (OTA), U.S. Congress, U.S. Review of Energy,Vol. 8 (Palo Alto, Calif.: Natural Gas Availability Through the Year 2000 1983). (Washington, D.C.: 1985).

240 Notes (227)

31. Christopher Flavin, Nuclear Power: The March 29, 1985; Bob W;'..liams, "Apparent Market Ted (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Mukluk Wildcat Failure Doesn't Dim North Institute, December 1983); the current out- Slope Outlook," Oil and Gas Journal, January look is described in lEA, Energy Policies and 16, 19E4; Mark Potts, "Oil Hopes Dashed in Programmes. Atlantic," WashingtonPost,December 23, 1984. 32. Hydropower figures from BPC, BP Statistical Review of World Energy; biomass 41. Yergin, The Reshaping of the Oil Industry: figures are Worldwatch Institute estimates John M. Berry, "Oil Price Decline Could Cre- based on Keith Openshaw, "WoodfuelA ate Winners, Losers," Washington Post, July Time for Reassessment," Natural Resources 14, 1985. Forum, Vol. 3, 1978, pp. 35-51; see also Dan- 42. "Soviet Drilling Program Shy of Tar- iel Deudney and Christopher Flavin, Renew- get," Oil and Gas Journal, April 29, 1985; "So- able Energy: The Power to Choose (New York: viet Oil Output Still Below Targe ," Journal of W.W. Norton & Co., 1983). Commerce, June 17, 1985. 33. Recent commercial developments in 43. "Soviets Seek to Stir Up Stagnant Oil renewable energy described in Christopher Sector," Journal of Commerce, March 25, 1985; Flavin, Renewable Energy attheCrossroads Leonard Silk, "Soviet Oil Troubles," hew (Washington, D.C.: Center for Renewable York Times, June 5, 1985. Resources, 1985). 44. "Oil Production Up, Activity Levels 34. API, Basic Petroleum Data Book. High Off Northern Europe," Oil and Gas Jour- 35. Richard Nehring, "Prospects for Con- nal, June 10, 1985. ventional World Oil Resources," in Annual 45. William A. Orme, "Mexican Oil De- Reviews Inc., Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 7 pendence Gros s," Journal of Commerce, June (Palo Alto, Calif.: 1982); Charles D. Masters, 14, 1985; William A. Orme, "Reserve Esti- "World Petroleum Resources: A Perspec- mate Declines in Mexico," Journal of Com- tive," U.S. Geological Survey, Alexandria, merce, March 20, 1985. Va., mimeographed, 1985 (unpublished). 46. Peter Hills,"China's Offshore Oil 36. Nehring, "Prospects for Conventional Boom," New Scientist, September 8, 1983; World Oil Resources." Amanda Bennett, "Promise cif China's Oil 37. Charles D. Masters, David H. Root, Starts Slowly Changing People and Land- and William D. Dietzman, "Distribution and scape," Wall Street Journal, February 5, 1985; Quantitative Assessment of World Crude-Oil Kim Woodard, China Energy Ventures Inc., Reserves and Resources," U.S. Geological "Development of China's Petroleum Indus- Survey, Alexandria,Va., mimeographed, try: An Overview," prepared for the China 1983 (unpublished). EnergyWorkshop. East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, April 25-26, 1985. 38. Ibid. 47. World Bank, Energy Transition in Devel- 39. U.S. oil production figures include all oping Countries; updated idormation from crude oil and natural gas liquids outside Farrokh Najmabadi, World Bank petroleum Alaska and are from DOE, EIA, Monthly En- economist, Washington, D.C., private com ergy Review; Lichtblau, "OPEC Oil in a Global munication, June 28, 1985. Context." 48. Lichtblau, "OPEC Oil in a Global 40. OTA, Oil and Gas Technologies for the Arc- Context." tic and Deepwater (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1985); "Alaska 49. Charles Ebinger, Georgetown Univer- Drilling: Disappointments," EnergyDaily, sity Center for Strategic and International

241 /228) Notes

Studies, Washington, D.C., privatecommu- Chapter 6. Reforming the Electric Power nication, June 13, 1985. Industry 50. Lichtblau, "OPEC Oil ina Global 1. Estimate based on data in International Context"; H. Tahmassebi, "World Energy Energy Agency (IEA), Electricity in lEA Coun- Outlook Through 1990," Ashland Oil Inc., tries (Paris: Organisation for EconomicCo- Ashland, Ky., June 1984. operation and Development, 1985). 51. DOE, EIA, Energy Projections to the Year 2. Figures from Cogeneration & Small Power 2000 (Washington, D.C.: 1983); DOE, EIA, Monthly, all issues through September 1985. Annual Energy Gatlook 1984 (Washington, 3. Thomas P. Hughes, Networks of Power: D.C.: 1985); IEA, Energy Policies and Pro- Electrification in Western Society, 1880-1930 grammes. (Baltimore, Md.: The Johns Hopkins Univer- 52. World Bank, Energy Transition in Devel- sity Press, 1983). oping Countries. 4. U.S. fuel cost data from U.S. Depart- 53. Douglas Bohi, Energy Securityin the ment of Energy (DOE), Energy Information 1980s:EconomicandPoliticalPerspectives Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, (Washington, D.C.: September 1985); data 1984). on plant efficiency and production costs from DOE, EIA, Thermal Electric Plant Construction 54. IEA, Energy Policies and Programmes. Cost and Annual Production &lenses, 1980 55. H. Richard Heede, Richard E. Mor- (Washington, D.C.: 1980). gan, and Scott Ridley, The Hidden Costs of En- 5. T.A. Burnet et al., "Economic Evalua- ergy (Washington, D.C.: Center for Renew- tion of Limestone and Lime Flue Gas Decal- able Resources, 1985). furization Processes," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., March 56. U.S. Treasury Department, Tax Reform 1984; H.A. Cavanaugh, "Utility Cleanup for Fairness,Simplicity, and Eton°c Growth (Washington, D.C.: 1985). Spending to Drop 23%," Electrical World, July 1984. 57. Hewett. Energy row:ales .and Foreign 6. Carlos Murawczyk and Ken M.Moy, Policy in the Soviet Union. "Environmental Protection from Power Gen- 58 Information on energy efficiencyof eration: An International Overview," Public Third 141oild economiesfromAlain Utilihes Fortnightly, April 28, 1983: Environ- Streicher, Hager Bailly & Company, Inc., mental Resources Limited, Acid Rain: A Re- Washington, D.C., private communication, view of the Phenomenon in the EEC and Europe June 20, 1985; Michael Fisher, "Innovative (London: Graham & Trott-inn Ltd., 1983). Approach to Financing Energy Conservation 7.Nuclear:WorldStatus,"Financial Investments in Developing Countries, Times Energy Economist, January 1985. rat Resources Forum, May t995. 8. Cost estimate based on I.C. Bupp and 59. Gary Hart, "Tax Imported Oil," New Charles Konranoff, Prometheus Bound: Nuclear York Times, August 2, 1985. Power at the Turning Point (Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, 60. Energy Advice, Energy Supplies and 1983); French utility debt from Jim Harding, Prices in Western Europe to the Year 2000(Ge- Friends of the Earth, private communication, neva: 1985); World Bank, Energy Transition in October 8, 1985. Developing Countries. 9. Swedish ref; rendum reported in Eliza- 61. lEA, Energy Policies and drogrummes. beth Taylor and William G. Davey, "Energy

242 Notes (229) in Western Europe," Energy Policy, December Forecast" and from IEA, Electricity in lEA 1984; decision of Denmark's parliament from Countries. Preben Maegaard, The Danish Centre for 19. World Bank, The Energy Transition in Renewable Energy, private communication, August 27, 1985. Developing Countn.-.7 (Washington,D.C.: 1983). 10. Bill Richards, "Power Users Seek Re- 20. Ibid. lief from Nuclear Costs," Wall Street Journal, September12 1985;StuartDiamond, 21. Hugh Collier, Developing Electric Power: "Sweeping Effet.t3 of Shoreham Fine," New Thirty Years of World Bank Experience (Balti- York Times, June 29, 1985; Lori A. Woehrle, more, Md.: The Johns Hopkins University "New Orleans May Go Municipal," Public Press, 1984); "Record Lending for World Power, March/April 1985; Bill Rankin, "Chi- Bank," Energy Daily, August 1, 1984. cago Considers Divorce From Its Electric 22. World Bank, China: Long-Term Develop- Utility," Energy Daily, October 15, 1985. ment Issues and Options (Washington, D.C.: 11. IEA, Electricity in !EA Countries; DOE, 1985); information on number of Chinese EIA, Monthly Energy Review. without electricity from Wang Tingjiong, Di- rector, Institute of Scientific and Technical 12. DOE, EIA,ElectricPower Monthly Information of China, private communica- (Washington, D.C.: April 1984); "36th An- tion, October 2,1985; "China's Nuclear nual Electric Utility Industry Forecast," Elec- Boom May Soon Go Bust," New Scientist, Feb- trical World, September 1985. ruary 14, 1985. 13. United Nations, Annual Review of Elec- 23. 'Progress and Tradition in Energy tric Energy Statisti,,s for Europe (New York: vari- Conservation," Chikyu no Koe (Tokyo), No- ous years). vember 1981; Howard Geller, "Residential 14. North American Electric Reliability Appliances and Space Conditioning Equip- Council, Electric Power Supply and Demand ment: Current Savings Potential, Cost Effec- (Princeton, NJ.: 1985). tiveness and Residential Needs," presented at the 1984 Summer Study on Energy Effi- 15. IEA, Elecalcity in lEA Countries. ciency in Buildings of the American Council 16. U.S. Department of Energy, The Future for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), of Electric Power tin America: Economic Supply for Santa Cruz, Calif., June 1984; Amory B. Lo- Economic 3rowth (Washington, D.C.: 1983); vins, "Saving Gigabucks with Negawatts," TEA, Ekctricity in lEA Countries. Public Utilities Fortnightly, March 21, 1985; "Evolution in Lighting," EPRI Journal, June 17. Peter Navarro, "Our Stake in the Elec- 1984; David B. Goldstein, "Wasted Light: An tric Utility's Dilemma," Hcrvard Business Re- Economic Rationale for Saving 75% of view, May/June 1982; John R. Siegel and Lighting Energy in Commercial Buildings," John 0. Sillin, "Changes in the Real Price of Natural Resources Defense Council, San Electricity:Implications for Higher Load Francisco, Calif., 1984 (unpublished); "Pac- Growth," Public Utilities Fortnightly, Septem- ing Plant Motors for Energy Savings," EPRI ber 15, 1983. Journal, March 19-21, 1984; Walter J. Mar- 18. "FranceTowards an Electric Econ- tiny, "Making the Choice Between Normal & omy," European Energy Report, January 11, Hi-Efficiency Motors," presented at 11 th En- 1985; Per Kageson, Swedish energy writer, ergy Technology Conference, Washington, private communication, September 19, 1985; D.C., March 1984. statistics on electric heating in new homes 24. "California Adopts Efficiency Stan- from "36th Annual Electric Utility Industry dards," Energy Daily, December 20, 1984; Vic

243 (230) Notes Reinemer, "Progress-After 10 Years-on 33. Northwest Power Planning Council, ApplianceEfficiencyStandards," Public Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Power, September/October 1985. (Portland, Ore.: 1983). 25, Lovins, "Saving Gigabucks with Nega- 84. Statement of Arthur Rosenfeld on the watts." Least Cost Utility Planning Initiative before 26. Howard S. Geller, "Progress in the the Subcommittee on Energy Development Energy Efficiency of Residential Appliances and Applications of the Committee on Sci- and Space Conditioning Equipment," in En- ence and Technology, U.S. House of Repre- ergy Sources: Conservation and Renewables (New sentatives, September 26, 1985. York: American Institute of Physics, 1985); 35. IEA, Electricity in lEA Countries. estimates of the economics of improved efficiency and the potential to reduce demand 36. Information Sweden from Kage- growth are included Amory 13. Lovins, son, private communication. "Least-Cost Electrici '..rategies for Wis- 37. IEA, EiRctrictty in !EA Countries. consin," prepared test. .ony before the Wis- consin Public Service Commission, Septem- 38. World Bank, Energy Transition in Devel- ber 24, 1985. oping Countries. 27. Lovins, "Least-Cost Electricity Strate- 39. Federal Energy Regulatory Commis- gies for Wisconsin." sion (FERC), Small Power Production and Cogen- 28. Douglas Cogan and Susan Williams, eration Facilities; Regulations Implementing Section 210 of the Public Utility Regt'atory Policies Act of Generating Energy Alternatives (Washington, 1978 (Washington, D.C.: 1980). D.C.: Investor Responsibility Research Cen- ter, 1983). 40. IEA, Electricity in !EA Countries. 29. M. Centaro, Florida Power and Light 41. Officeof Technology Assessment Company, private communication, October (OTA), U.S. Congress, Industrial an?, Commer- 11, 1984; Lee Calloway, Pacific Gas and Elec- cial Cogeneration (Washington, D.C,.: 1983); tric Company, privat communication, Octo- Glenn H. Lovin, "The Resurgence of Cogen- ber 11, 1984; City of Austin Electric Utility eration in the United States," paper pre- Department, Austin's Conservation Power Plant sented to the New Yo-k Society of Security (Austin, Tex.: 1984). Analysts, April 4, 198d; International Cogen- 30. "Utilities Gear Up for New Marketing eration Society estimate from Kirby V. Free- Thrust," Electrical World, August 1982; "Utili- man, "Growing Cogeneration Trend Could be Threat to Coal," Journal of Commerce, Feb- ties are Tempting Big Customers to Turn Up ruary 25, 1985. the Juice," Business Week, October 31, 1983. 31. Luvins, "Least-Cost Electricity Strate- 42. OTA, Industrial and Commercial Cogener- gies for Wisconsin." ation . 32. BonnevillePowerAdministration, 43. DiNoto quoted in Joseph A. Glorioso, "BPA Launches the Hood River Conserva- "Cogeneration: A Technology Reborn," In- tion Project," Portland, Ore., November dustry Week, January 23, 1984. 1983; H. Gil Peach, Terry Oliver, and David 44. "HL&P Signs Big Cogeneration Pact B. Goldstein, "Cooperation & Diversity ina With Dow," 021 & Gas Journal, February 4, Large-Scale Conservation Research Proj- 1985; information on enhanced oil recovery ect," presented at the ACEEE 1984 Summcr facilities from Jan Hamrin, Independent En- Study; update provided by H. Gil Peach, pri- ergy Producers Association, private commu- vate communication, October 18, 1985. nication, August 26, 1985.

244 Notes (231) 45. Ravi K. Sakhuja, "Modular Cogenera- Sign Joint Venture," Journal of Commerce, Oc- tion for Commercial Light Industrial Sec- tober 10, 1985. tor," Cogeneration World, January/February 1984; Frost and Sullivan study cited in Stuart 52. Easterly and Saris, "A Survey of the Diamond, "Cogeneration Jars the Power In- Use of Biomass." dustry," New York Times, June 10, 1984; The 53. Governmentof Sweden,"Green Sievert Group, "Packaged Gas Fired Cogen- Power: Biofuels Are a Growing Concern," eration Systems for Fast Food Restaurants," Scientific American, August 1984; information presented at 11th Energy Technology Con- on Denmark's biomass-fueled power plants ference; Paul Johnson, "McDonald's Looks from Maegaard, private communication; in- at Cogeneration," Diesel Progress, July 1984. formation on Philippines program from 46. DOE, Industrial Cogeneration Potential: Pedro D'imal, Director, National Electrifica- Targeting of OpportunitiesatthePlantSite tion Administration, Manila, private commu- (Washington, D.C.: 1983); figures on FERC nication, November 14, 1985. registrations from Cogeneration & Small Power 54. Donald Marier, "Hydropower Begins Monthly, all issues through September 1985; to Deliver Its Promise," Alternative Sources of OTA, Industrial and Commercial Cogeneration; Energy, January/February 1984; William A. IEA, Electricity in lEA Countries. Loeb, "How Small Hydro is Growing Big," 47. Goran Weibull, "Squeezing Extra Dol- Technology Review August/September 1983; ars Out of Cogeneration," Alternative Sources U.S. use and cost figures from Raymond J. of Energy, September/October 1984; dollar O'Connor, chairman of the Federal Energy value of cogeneration business is author's es- Regulatory Commission, response to inquiry timate based on 3,000-4,000 megawatts of by the Subcommittee on Enegy Conservation cogeneration annually at a cost of $500,000 and Power, House Committee on Energy and to $1 million per megawatt. Commerce, February 17, 1984. 48. Cogeneration & Small Power Monthly, all 55. Pacific Gas and Electric Company, issues. "The Geysers Power Plant Development," internal memorandum, March 26, 1982; Bob 49. Thomas Carr, "The Burlington Elec- Williams, "U.S. Geothermal Retrenching tric Experience with 50 MW McNeil Munici- pal Power Plant," and Scott Noll, "Small from Period of Vigorous Expansion," Oil & Gas Journal, September 30, 1985; Ronald Wood Fired Power PlantsThe Ultrapower DiPippo, "Development of Geothermal Elec- Experience," presentedat12th Energy tric Power Production Overseas," presented Technology Conference, Washington, D.C., at 11th Energy Technology Conference. March 25-27, 1985. 50. James L. Easterly and Elizabeth C. 56. DiPippo, "Geothermal Electric Pow- er"; Bill Rankin, "DOE and Industry Unite to Saris, "A Survey of the Use of 3iomass as a Boost Geothermal," Energy Daily, August 27, Fuel to Produce Electric Energy in the United 1985. States," paper presented at1 1 th Energy Technology Conference; ColinLeinster, 57. Paul Gipe, "Aa Overview of thf U.S. "The Sweet Smell of Profits from Trash," Wind Industry: The Road to Commercial De- Fortune, April I, i`05; "Wastewater Plant Pi- velopment," Alternative Sources of Energy, Sep- oneers Electric Power from Sludge," Power, tember/October 1985. October 1985. 58. 600 million kilowatt-hour estimate is 51. Jeffrey Schmalz, "The Next Decade's based on total of 522 million kilowatt-hours Agenda: Ga-Lage," New York Times, August for the first nine months of 1985, according 17, 1985; Joseph Bonney, "GE, Pyropower to Wind Energy Weekly, October 28, 1985.

245 7ftor,..td

(232 ) Notes 59. Donald Marier, "Windf-drm Update: Trends in PURPA Implementat!on," pre- Energy Production Improves Dramatically," sented at Renewable Energy Technologies Alternative Sources of Energy, September/Octo- Symposium and International Exhibition, ber 1985; Robert Lynette, "Wind Turbine Anaheim, Calif., August 29-September 1, PerformanceAn Industry Overview," Alter- 1983; DavidK.Owens, EdisonElectric Insti- native Sources of Energy, Septembe r/October tute, "Overview of the States Regulations 1985. and Rate Settings Under PURPA Section 60. Hawaii Electric Company plans de- 210," presented at Renewable Energy Tech- scribed in OTA, New Electric Power Technolo- nologies Symposium and International Exhi- gies: Problems and Prospects for the 199th (Wash- bition, Anaheim, Calif., June 4-9, 1984; Rich- ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing ard Myers, Cogeneration: After PURPA the Office, 1985); wind energy developments in Deluge,"Energy Daily,September 17, 1985. Denmark described in Windpower Monthly 69. California Energy Commission,Afford- (Knebel, Denmark), July 1985. obi: Electricity in an Uncertain World. 61. Economics of various small power 70. Bill Rankin, "California Regulators sources discussed in California Energy Com- 4,1 Call a Halt to Gold Rush by Cogenerators," mission, Affordable Electricity in an Uncertain Energy Daily, July 12, 1985. World (Sacramento, Calif.: 1985); advantages of small-scale projects to utility planners dis- 71. Bill Paul, "Electricity Pricing Policy cussed in OTA, New Electric Power Technologies. That Switches Risks to Investors Planned in California." Wall Street Journal, October 11, 62. OTA, New Electric Power Technologies. 1985. 63. Ibid. 72. David A. Huettner, "Restructuring the 64. Edgar A. DeMeo and Roger W. Tay- ElectricUtilityIndustry: A Modest taro- lor, "Solar Photovoltaic Power Systems. An posal," in Howard J. Brown, ed., Decentraliz- Electric Utitity R&D Perspective," Science, ing Electricity Production (New Haven, Conn.: April 20, 1984; "Fuel Cells for the Nineties," Yale University Press, 19'33). EPR1 Journal, September 1984. 65. lEA, Electricity rn lEA Countries; "Greek Legislation Frees Electricity Market," Euro- Chapter 7. Decommissioning Nuclear pean Energy Report, July 26, 19e5; information Power Plants on Pakistan from Bob Eichord, U.S. Agency 1. Public Citizen/Environmental Action, for International Development, private com- "Dismantling the Myths About Nuclear De- munication, September 12, 1985; informa- commissioning," Washington, D.C., April tion on United Kingdom from Peter James, 1985. independent energy analyst, private communication, October 15, 1985. 2. Atomic Industrial Forum (A:F), "Inter- national Survey," Bethesda, Md., April 17, 66. Arthur Rosenfeld remarks before the 1985. American Physical Society Short Course on Conservation and Renewables, Washington, 3. Steve Olson, "Nuclear Unucrtakers," D.C., April 27, 1985. Science 84, September 1984; reactor inven- torynumbers fromAIF,"International 67. California Energy Commission, Afford- Survey," from AIF, "Midyear Report," Be- able Electricity m an Uncertain World. thesda, Md., July 10, 1985, from Interna- 68N.Richard Friedman, Resource Dy- tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), "The nat-Acs Corporation, "State Rulemaking and Methodology and Technology of Decommis- Utility Pricing for Cogeneration: National sioning Nuclear Facilities" (draft), Annex 2, 246 Notes (233) Vienna, May 1985, and from Nuclear Energy Safety and Costs of Decommissioning a Reference Agency (NEA), "Compendium on Decom- Pressurized Water Reactor Power Station(Wash- missioning Activities in NEA Member Coun- ington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Com- tries," Organisation for Economic Co-opera- mission, 1978). tion and Development, Paris, January 1985; retirement date obtained by adding 30 years 10. E.S. Murphy, "Technology, Safety and to the date the reactor went into commercial Costs of Decommissioning a Reference Pres- operation surized Water Reactor Power Station: Clas- sification of Decommissioning Wastes," U.S. '... U.S. Nudear Regulatory Commission, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washing- "DecommissioningCriteriaforNuclear ton, D.C., 1984. Facilities,"FederalRegister,February11, 1985. 11. Smit'i, Konzek, and Kennedy, Decom- missioning atReference Pressurized Water Reactor; 5. Taylor Moore, "Decommissioning Nu- Moore, "OecommiEsioning Nuclear Power clear rower Plants," EPRI Journal, July/Au- Plants"; Commission of the European Com- gust 1985; Colin Norman, "A Long-Term munities, "The Community's Research and Problem for the Nuclear Industry," Science, Development Programme on Decommis- January 22, 1982. sioning of'Nuclear Power Plants, Third An- 6. "Survey on Nuclear Decommissioning nual Progress Report," Luxembourg, 1984; Methods/Costs," presented at American Gas Tokai. ReSearch Establishment"Develop- Association (AGA) Depreciation Committee ment of Reactor Decommissioning Technol- and Edison Electric Institute Depreciation ogy," Japan Atomic Energy Research Insti- Accounting Committee Conference, Dallas, tute, Tokyo, 1985. Tex., February 11-13, 1985; NEA, "Com- 12. Smith, Konzek, and Kennedy, Decom- pendium on Decommissioning." missioning a Reference Pressurized Water Reactor; 7. World Health Organization, Health Im- NEA, "Compendium on Decommissioning." plications of Nuclear Power Production (Copen- 13. Bill Rahkin, "Long Odyssey for a Little hagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe, Reactor," Energy Daily, May 23, 1985. 1978); Daniel H. Williams and Thomas S. LaGuardia, "Guidelines for Producing Com- 14. Ibid.; Moore, "Decommissioning Nu- mercial Nuclear Power Plant Decommission- clear Power Plants." ing Cost Estimates," for AIF, Bethesda, Md., 15. NEA, "Compendium on Decommis- March 1985. sioning." 8. M. Lasch et al., "Estimation of Radioac- 16. John J. Taylor, "Remote Systems for tive Waste Quantities Arising During De- TMI-2 Surveillance and Characterization," commissioning," in K.H. Schaller and B. EPRI Journal, March 1985; "Utility Starts Ex- Huber, Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants, tracting Wrecked Core From TMI,"Energy proceedings of a European Communities Ip2ilyOctober 29, 1985. Conference, Luxembourg, May 22-24, 1984 (London: Graham & Trotman, for Commis- 17. Annie Stine, "The Short, Sad Life and sion of the European Communities, )984). Long, Slow Death of Humboldt Bay," Sierra, 9. For a ,t.neral discussion of the nuclear September/October 1984. fuel cycle and various reactor technologies, 18. Officeof TechnJlogyAssessment see Walter C. Patterson, Nuclear Power (Mid- (OTA), U.S. Congress, Managing the Nation's dlesex, U.K.: Penguin Books, 1983). For a Commercial High-Level Radioactive Waste technical discussion, see R.I. Smith, G.J. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- Konzek, and W.E. Kennedy, Jr., Technology, ing Office, 1985).

24.7. "e4:' : "- 4ct'l, ,frt

(234 ) Notes 19. Union of Concerned Scientists, The Washington, D.C., December 12-15, 1983 Nuclear Fuel Cycle (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT (Springfield, Va.: National Technical Infor- Press,1975); OTA, Managing Commercial mation Service, 1984); Bob Johnstone, "A High-Level Waste. Country Without a 'Nuclear Toilet'," New 20. For an extensive discussion of interna- Scientist, October 3, 1985; "No One is Empty- tional fuel reprocessing plans and activities, ing the Nuclear Dustbins," New Scientist, Oc- see Fuel Reprocessing and Waste Management, tober 3, 1985. proceedings of the American Nuclear Society 28. Approximately 113,000 cubic meters InternationalTopicalMeeting, Jackson, of commercial low-level radioactive waste Wyo., August 26-29, 1984 (LaGrange Park, were produ:ed in the United States in 1984; Ill.: American Nuclear Society, 1984). this encompasses wastes from all sources 21. Judith Perera, "China and Sudan medical laboratories to nuclear power plants. Want Germany's Nuclear Waste," New Scien- Lack of disposal sites is outlined in William J. tist, September 5, 1985; Karol Szyndzielorz, Dircks, "Disposal Capability for Decommis- chief political commentator, Zycie Warszawy sioning Wastes," Nuclear Regulatory Com- (Warsaw), private communication, Septem- mission, Washington, D.C., memorandum, ber 18, 1985. March 8, 1985. 22. Fuel Reprocessing and Waste Management. 29. Luther Carter, nuclear waste analyst, Washington, D.C., private communication, 23. OTA, Managing Commercial High-Level October15,1985; Richard L. Hudson, Waste; "EPA Issues 10,000-Year Standard," "Atomic-Age Dump: A British Nuclear Plant Energy Daily, August 16, 1985; Mark Craw- Recycles Much Waste, Stirs a Growing Out- ford, "DOE, States Reheat Nuclear Waste cry," Wall Street Journal, April I!, 1984. Debate," Science, October 11, 1985. 24. James B. Martin, Review of "Managing 30. Taylor Moore, "The Great State of the Nation's Commercial High-Level Radio- Uncertainty in Low-Level Waste Disposal," al EPRI Journal, March 1985. For a general dis- activeWaste,"Environment,July/August 1985. cussion of nuclear waste problems in Amer- ica, see Donald L. Barlett and James B. 25. "SKBSwedish NuclearFuel and Steele, Forevermore (New York: W.W. Norton Waste Management Company," information & Co., 1985). brochure, Stockholm, 1985; 3enjamin S. Cooper, "Monitored, Retrievable Storage: 31. Moore, "Uncertainty in Low-Level Priority Needed," Nuclear News, November Waste Disposal"; "Passage of Waste Bill 1984; Thomas O'Toole, "Clinch River Site Ends Threat on Dumps," New York Times, De- Urged for Storing Atomic Waste," Washing- cember 20, 1985; Bill Paul, "Three States ton Post, April 26, 1935. Score Victories in Struggle to Make Others Accept Nuclear Wastes," Wall Street Journal, 26. California legislature quote from Fred October 8, 1985. C. Shapiro, Radwaste (New York: Random House, Inc., 1981); Christopher Flavin, Nu- 32. U.S. House of Representatives, Com- clear Powe-.The Market Test (Washington, mittee on Interior and Insular Affairs, "Low- D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute,December Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments 1983). Act of 1985," Washington, D.C., October 22, 1985; Gale Warner, "Low-Level Lowdown," 27. K.M. Harmon, "Survey of Foreign Sierra, July/August 1985. Terminal Radioactive Waste Storage Pro- grams," in Proceedings of the 1983 Civilian Radio- 33. David Fishlock, "The Swedish Lesson active Waste Management Information Meeting, in Nuclear," Energy Daily, February 6, 1985; ,?48 Notes (235 ) "Radioactive Waste ManagementPolicies," Nuclear Reactor Decommissioning Planning IAEA Bulletin,Vol. 25, N' 4. Conference, Bethesda,Md., July16-18, 34. National Research Council,Social and 1985. Economic Aspects of Radioactive Waste Disposal 41. Roberts, Shaw, and Stahlkopf, "De- (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, commissioningof CommercialNuclear 1984); Fish lock, "Swedish Lesson"; Michael Power Plants"; Moore, "Uncertainty in Low- Oreskes, "U.S. Refuses to Forbid Trucking Level Waste Disposal." Atomic Waste Through New York,"New York Times,September 10, 1985. 42. "U.K. Considers Compensation for Those Near Waste Dumps,"Energy Daily, 35. Share of reactors that are PWRs and September 4, 1985. BWRs from AIF, "International Sur ,y '; Smith, Konzek, and Kennedy,. recommissioning 43. Roberts, Shaw, and Stahlkopf, "De- a Reference Pressurized Water Reactor;H.D. Oak commissioningof CommercialNuclear et al.,Technology, Safety and Costs of Decommis- Power Plants"; Public Citizen, "Dismantling sioning a Reference Boiling Witter Reactor Power the M,,,ths." Station('ishington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear 44. R.S. Wood, "Assuring the Availability Regulator y Commission, 1980). of Funds for Decommissioning Nuclear 36. R.I. Smith et al., "Updated Costs for Facilities," U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Com- Decommissioning Nuclear Power Facilities," mission, Washington, D.C., 1983; John S. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, Ferguson, "Influence of Accounting Con- Calif., May 1985; J.T.A. Roberts, R. Shaw, cepts and Regulatory Rules on the Funding and K. Stahlkopf, "Decommissioning of of Power Reactor Decommissioning Costs," Commercial Nuclear Power Plants," in An- presented to International Nuclear Reactor nual Reviews Inc.,Annual Review of Energy, Decommissioning Planning Conference. Vol. 10(Palo Alto, Calif.: 1985). 45. PublicCitizen,"Dismantling the 37. Williams and LaGuardia, "Guidelines Myths." for Decommissioning Cost Estimates"; AIF, 46. JJ. Siegel, "Utility Financial Stability "An Overview of Decommissioning Nuclear and the Availability of Funds for Decommis- Power Plants," Bethesda, Md., March 1983; sioning," U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commis- "Swiss Estimate Price of Decommissioning as sion, Washington, D.C., September 1984. 2C 70 Cost of Building Plant,"Nucleonics Week, February 26, 1981. 47. Chip Brown, "An Ambitious Nuclear Empire Goes Awry,"Washington Post,Decem- 38. Duane Chapman, Cornell University, ber 2, 1984; Siegel, "Utility Financial Stabil- Ithaca, N.Y., private communication, Sep- ity." tember 12, 1985; Rand Corporation research fromPublicCitizen,"Dismantlingthe 48 Siegel, "Utility Financial Stability." Myths"; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 49. John Douglas, "Nuclear Power: The "Nuclear Power Plant Construction Activity Next Generation,"EPRI Journal,March 1984," Washington, D.C., July 1985. 1985; "Electricity,"Financial Times Energy 39. Investment in canceled nuclear plants Economist,August 1985. is a Worldwatch Institute estimate based on 50. Cregut, "Decommissioning Philoso- numerous reports and news articles; DOE, phy it France"; Jim Harding, Friends of the "Nuclear Power Plant Construction Activ- Earth, private communication, October 8, ity " 1985. 40. A. Cregut, "Decommissioning Philos- 51. PublicCitizen,"Dismantlingthe ophy in France," presented to Internationll Myths." 249 #, ,, +."45'....,Y'41;7Veltht,

(23 6) Notes 52. B.Schultz, "The Back-end of the ulation and Development Review, December Swedish Nuclear Fuel Cycle," IAEA Bulletin, 1984, from Royal College of Physicians, Vol. 24, No. 2; S. Fareeduddia and J. Hir- Health or Smoking (London: Pitman Publish- ling, "The Radioactive Waste Management ing Ltd, 1983), from Takeshi Hirayama, Conference," IA EA Bulletin, Vol. 25, No. 4. "Non-Smoking Wives of Heavy Smokers Have A Higher Risk of Lung Cancer: A Study 53. Harmon,"SurveyofRadioactive Waste Programs"; Fareeduddin and Hirling, from Japan," British Medical Journal, January 17, 1981, from James L. Repace and Alfred "Radioactive Waste Management Confer- ence." H. Lowrey, "A Quantitative Estimate of Nonsmokers' Lung Cancer Risk from Passive 54. "Survey of Decommissioning Meth- Smoking," Environment International, Vol. 11, cds/Costs," AGA Depreciation Committee. 1985, and from Ira B. Trager et al., "Longi- 55. The average residential electricity cus- tudinal Study of the Effects of Maternal tomer in the United States used 8,965 kilo- Smoking on Pulmonary Function in Chil- dren," New England Journal of Medicine, Sep- watt-hours of electricity in 1984, according to tember 22, 1983. unpublished statistics compiled by the Edi- son Electric Institute. 3. Quote in USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), "Tariff and Nontariff Mea- 56. Roland Krantz, Commonwealth Edi- sures on Tobacco," Foreign Agricultural Circu- son, private communication, October 17, lar, Supplement 1-84, Washington, D.C., 1985. January 1984. See also Ruth Roemer, Legisla- 57. E.B. Moore, Jr., "Facilitation of De- tive Action to Combat the World Smo' king Epidemic commissioning Light Water Reactors," U.S. (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1983). Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washing- 4. See, for example, special editions of ton, D.C., December 1979; A. Bittner et al., Ncar York State Journal of Medicine, July 1985, "Concepts Aimed at Minimizing the Activa- and Journal of the American Medical Association, tion and Contamination of Concrete," in May 24/31, 1985, both dedicated to the Schaller and Huber, Decommissioning of Nuclear smoking problem. Power Plants. 5. Estimates based on USDA computer printout. For prevalence in the United States, Chapter 8. Banishing Tobacco see DHHS, National Center for Health Sta- tistics, Health, United States, 1984. Note also 1. Estimates based on U.S. Department of that the percent of U.S. male smokers who Agriculture (USDA) computer printout, pri- consumed more than 25 cigare tes per day in vate communication, August 29, 1985; U.S. 1965 and 1983 was 24.1 and 33.6, respec- prevalence rates from U.S. Department of tively. The respective rates for U.S. female Health and Human Services (DHHS), Na- smokers in those years were 13.0 and 20.6 tional Center for Health Statistics, Health, percent. Untied States, 1984 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Gov,Trnment Printing Office, 1984). 6. USDA computer printout. The Third World, excluding China, has 54 percent of 2. Worldwide cost in lives derived from the world's population and uses 25 percent published estimates of heart disease, lung of the world's tobacco; industrial Western cancer, and emphysema due to cancer; com- nations, 16 percent of the population and 37 parisons of the health costs of tobacco based percent of the tobacco; Eastern bloc nations, on data from R.T. Ravenholt, "Addiction including the Soviet Union, 8.5 percent of Mortality in the United States, 1980: To- the population and 16 percent of the tobacco, Alcohol, and Other Substances," Pop- bacco. USDA, computer printout; Population

2 5 0 Notts ( 23 7 ) Reference Bureau, 1984 World Population Sanghvi, K. Jayant, and S.S. Pakhale, "To- Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1984). bacco Use and Cancer in India," World Smok- 7. USDA, FAS, "TobaccoWorld To- ing and Health, Winter 1980. bacco Situation," Foreign Agriculture Circular 13. DHHS, National Center for Health FT 6-85, Washington, D.C., June 1985. Statistics, Health, United States, 1984; informa- 8. Richard Doll and Richard Peto, "Quan- tion on British children from "Curry-Eating kative Estimates of Avoidable Risks of Can- Teenage Smokers Cough On," New Scientist, cer in the United States Today,"Journal of the April 21, 1983; information on Norwegian National Cancer Institute, November 1981; U.S. children from Bjartveit et al., "Controlling Department of Health, Education, and Wel- the Epidemic: Legislation and Restrictive fare (DHEW), Public Health Service, Smoking Measures"; P. Nordgren, "Sweden Launches and Health: A Report of the Surgeon General New Anti-Smoking Offensive: Government- Appointed Commission Presents New Plans (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- for a 25-Year Program," Comprehensive ing Office: 1979). Smoking Prevention Education Act, Hear- 9. Estimates based on USDA computer ings before the Subcommittee on Health and printout. the Environment, U.S. House of Representa- 10. Royal College of Physicians, Health or tives Committee on Energy and Commerce, March 5, 11, and 12, 1982; information Smoking; DHHS, National Center for Health on Statistics, Health, United States, 1984; Hans Eastern bloc from translated asbtract, D.N. Adriaanse et al., "Physicians, Smoking, and Loranskiy et al., "The Smoking Problem," Health in the Netherlands," New York State Sovetskoye Zdravookhraaeniye,1983 (in Rus- Journal of Medicine, July 1985; K. Bjartveit et sian); "18-19-Year-Old Women Are Smok- al., "Controlling the Epidemic: Legislation ing Up a Storm," Canadian Family Physician, and Restrictive Measures," Canadian Journal August 1983; L.A. Cappiello and E.A. El Maksoud, "A Profile Study of High School of Public Health, November/Dr fiber 1981. Boys Who Smoke Cigarettes in Al-xandria, 11. J. Akbar, N. Cohen, and A.R. Mea- Egypt, and Buffalo, New York," International sham, "Smoking and Respiratory Disease Journal of Health Education, March 1983; I. Symptoms in Rural Bangladesh,"Public Salas et al., "Prevalence of Tobacco SmckinF Health, November 1983; A. Kubik, "The In- in Adolescents in Third Year of Secondary fluence of Smoking and Other Etiopathogen- Education," Revista Medica de Chile, Decem- etic Factors on the Incidence of Broncho- ber 1982 (in Spanish); J. Cohen and M. Solal, genic Carcinoma and Chronic Nonspecific "Antismoking Actions in France: Five Year Respiratory Diseases," Czechoslovak Medicine, Results," World Smoking and Health, Summer Vol. 7, No. 1, 1984; Soviet data cited in U.S. 1982; Royal College of Physicians, Health or Office of Smoking and Health translated ab- Smoking. stract of A.G. Shevchuk and R.N. Tarasova, 14. Patrick L. Remington et al., "Current "The Organization of Antismoking Educa- Smoking Trends in the United States,"Jour- tion," Zdravookhraneniye Rossiyskoy Federatsii, nal of the American Medical Association, May 24/ Vol. 5, 1983; Dean T. Jamison et al., China: 31, 1985. The low rate for women with only The Health Sector (Washington, D.C.: World a grade-school education probably relates to Bank, 1984); DHHS, National Center for their age. Few women born in the first quar- Health Statistics, Health, United States, 1984. ter of this century smoked. These women 12. Figures for U.S. increase from Verner also were less likely to have had advanced Grise, USDA, private communication, Sep- educational opportunitie.. tember 9, 1985; Claudia Wallis, "Into the 15. The estimate of 2 million to 2.5 mil- Mouths of Babes," Time, July 15, 1985; L.D. lion annual deaths worldwide includes an ex-

2 5 1. (23 8 ) Notes trapolation of lung cancer deaths using an Health Service,Office on Smoking and equation derived from death and smoking Health (03H), The Health Consequences of rates in 20 industrial and developing coun- SmokingCardiovascular Disease: A Report of the tries. It also includes the sum of the deaths Surgeon General (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Gov- due to heart disease and emphysema in in- ernment Printing Office, 1983), and A. Xeys dustrial countries, derived from various pub- et al., "The Seven Countries Study: 2,289 lished estimates (see notes 20 and 25). For Deaths in15 Years," Preventive Medicine, the United States, Ravenholt estimates mor- March 1984. tality due to tobacco use at almost 500,000, 21. See Jay D. Coffman, "Diseases of the or 25 percent of all deaths. Ravenholt, "Ad- diction Mortality in the United States, 1980." Peripheral Vessels," in James B. Wyngaar- den and Lloyd H. Smith, eds., Cecil Textbook of 16. Jerome H. Jaffe and Maureen Kanzler, Medicine (Philadelphia: W.B. Saunders Com- "Smoking as an Addictive Disorder," in Nor- pany,1982);S.Shinonoya,"Whatis man A. Krasnegor, ed., Cigarette Smoking as a Buerger's Disease?" World Journal of Surgery, Dependence Process (Rockville, Md.: National Jul/ 1983. Institute on Drug Abuse, 1979). 22. L. Rosenberg et al., "Myocardial In- 17. A.C. McKennell and R.K. Thomas, farction in Women Under 50 Years of Age," Adults' and Adolescents' Smoking Habits and Atti- Journal of the American Medical Associtnion, No- tudes(London: Her Majesty's Stationery vember 25, 1983; "Oral Contraceptives, Age, Office, 1967), as cited in M.A.H. Russell, Smoking and Circulatory System Disease," "Tobacco Dependence: Is Nicotine Reward- ChronicDiseasesinCanada, June1983; ing or Aversive?" in Krasnegor, Cigarette epidemiology survey cited is S. Johansson, A. Smoking as a Dependence Process; W.A. Hunt and Vedin, and C. Wilhelmsson, "Myocardial In- J.D. Matarazzo, "Three Years Later: Recent farction in Women," Eptclemiologic Reviews, Developments in t/-_Experimental Modifica- Vol. 5, 1983. tion of Smoking Behavior," Journal of Abnor- mal Psychology, Vol. 81, No. 2, 1973, as cited 23. C. Borland et al., "Carbon Monoxide in Saul M. Shiffman, "The Tobacco With- Yield of Cigarettes and its Relation to Car- drawal Syndrome," in ibid. diorespiratory Disease," British Medical Jour- nal, November 26, 1983. 18. See various chapters in Krasnegor, Cig- arette Smoking as a Dependeru-, Process. 24. DHHS, National Center for Health Statistics, Health, United States, 1984. 19. David W. Kaufman et al., "Nicotine and Carbon Monoxide Content of Cigarette 25. A linear regression (correlation coeffi- Smoke and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction cient .796) of lung cancer deaths in 20 in Young Men," New England Journal of Medi- countries on cigarette consumption was per- cine, February 21, :983; diminished risk dis- formed using data on smoking (adjusted for cussed in W.P. Castelli, "Cardiovascular Dis- age) obtained from USDA computer print- ease and Multifactorial Risk: Challenge of the outs for 1960 and data on lung cancer deaths 1980s," American Heart Journal, November in 1980, from World Health Organization, 1983. World Health Statistics, 1980-1981 (Geneva: 1981). This method of comparing lung can- 20. Some prospective studies, including cer with smoking rates 20 year earlier is sim- one forthcoming from the American Cancer Society, suggest a higher range of heart at- ilarto one proposed in Doll and Peto, tacks are due to smoking, R.T. Ravenholt, "Avoidable Risks of Cancer," and explain2d in detail in Appendix E there. private communication, October 28, 1985. See also Castelli, "Cardiovascular Disease 26. B.E. Henderson, L.N. Kolonel, and andMultifactorialRisk"; DHHS, Public F.H. Foster, "Cancer in Polynesians," Na-

252 Notes (239) tional Cancer Institute Monograph No. 62, Science Association Annual Meetings, San National Institutes of Health, U.S. Depart- Francisco, Calif., December 28, 1983. ment of Health and Human Services, Be- thesda, Md., December 1982; Repot: and 32. As cited in translated abstract, K. Lowrey, "Nonsmokers' Lung Cancer Risk Gibinski et al., "Morbid Economic Effects of from Passive Smoking." Tobacco Smoking in the District of Kato- wice,"Polski ,Tygodnik Lekarski,May 19, 1980 27. DHEW, Public Health Service,Smoking (inPolish);M.E. Thompson and W.F. and Health. Forbes, "Costs and 'Benefits' of Cigarette 28. Karl Kronebusch, "Smoking Related Smoking in Canada," CanadianMedical Associ- Deaths and Financial Costs," Office of Tech- ationJournal, November 1, 1982. nology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Staff 33. Estimates based on data in USDA, Memo, Washington, D.C., September 1985; FAS, "TobaccoWorld Tobacco Situation," DHHS, OSH, TheHealth Consequences of Smok- and in USDA, Economic Research Service, ingChrotuc ObstructiveLungDisease: A Report World Indices of AgriculturalandFood Production, of the Surgeon General(Washington, D.C.: U.S. 1950-84 (unpublished printout) (Washing- Government Printing Office, 1984). ton, D.C.: 1985). 29. Fire fatalities from Ravenholt, "Addic- 34. The 50 percent increase in lung cancer tion Mortality in the United States, 1980"; ri-aths is based on the equation of deaths as Repace and Lowrey, "Nonsmokers' Lung a function of cigarettes consumed, assuming Cancer Risk from Passive Smoking." that lung cancer in the year 2000 would be a 30. D. Hill, "Tobacco Dependency-Prob- function of cigarette consumption in 1980; lems and Progress," in National Alcohol and reduced risk for ex-smokers from Doll and Drug Dependence Multidisciplinary Institute Peto, "Avoidable Risks of Cancer." 78, Canberra, Australia, August 27-Septem- ber 1, 1978 (Canberra: Australian Founda- 35. Repace and Lowrey, "Nonsmokers' Lung Cancer Risk from Passive Smoking"; tion on Alcohol and Drug Dependence, date unknown); N.E. Collishaw and G. Myers, James L. Repne and Alfred H. Lowrey, "In- "Dollar Estimates of the Consequences of door Air Pollution, Tobacco Smoke, and Tobacco Use in Canada, 1979," Public Health,"Science,May 2, 1980; James Canadian L. Repace, "The Problem of Passive Smok- Journal of Fmk& Health, May/June 1934; OSH ing," translated abstract of R.E. et al., "The Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medi- cine,Second Series, December 1981; Pelayo Political-Economical Costs of Smoking: A Correa et at., "Passive Smoking and Lung Reply" (letters),Schweizensche Medizinische Wo- Cancer,"Lancet,September 10, 1983. chenschrift,September 24, 1983 (in German); Royal College of Physicians,Heald. or Smok- 36. Hirayama, "Non-Smoking Wives of ing. Heavy Smokers: A Study from Japan." For a 31. Numbers do not add up to total due to brief review of 14 studies of passive smoking, rounding; Kronebusch, "Smoking Related see Repace and Lowrey, "Nonsmokers' Lung Deaths and Financial Costs." See also Bryan Cancer Risk from Passive Smoking." R. Luf:e and Stuart 0. Schweitzer, "Smoking 37. Greek study from J. Trichopoulm et and Alcohol Abuse. A Comparison of Their al., "Lung Cancer and Pa:sive Smoking,"In- Economic Conseq'ences,"New England Jour- ternational Journal of Cancer, Vol.27, 19S1, pp. nal of Medicine,March 9, 1978; Dorothy P. 1-4; Correa et al., "Passive Smoking and Rice and Thomas A. Hodgson, "Economic Lung Cancer"; German study from trans- Costs of Smoking: An Analysis of Data for the lated abstract of A. Knoth, H. Bohn, and United States," presented at the Allied Social F. Schmidt, "Passive Smoking as a Causal

253 FS

(240) Notes Factor of Bronchial Carcinoma in Female Italian); G. Moggian et al., "Statistical Inves- Nonsmokers," Medizmische Klinik, February tigation of the Effects of Smoking During 4, 1983. Pregnancy," Giornale Italiano di Ostehicia e 38. Repace and Lowrey, "Nonsmokers' Gitwcologia, November 1983 (in Italian). Lung Cancer Risk from Passive Smoking"; 44. U.K. surveys from N. Nichol and J. Repace and Lowrey, "Indoor Air Pollution, Russell, "A Study of the Smoking Habits of Tobacco Smoke, and Public Health"; Vivian Pregnant Women and Their Attitudes to E. Thompson et al., "The Air Toxics Prob- Smoking in Hospital," Health Bulktin, Sep- lem in the United States: An Analysis of Can- tember 1983; Ravenholt, "Addiction Mortal- cer Risks Posed by Selected Air Pollutants," ity in the United States, 1980." The estimate Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, of 3 million is a minimum based on the data May 1985. in Table 8-5. 39. These examples assume 1-milligram 45. As cited in loyal College of Physi- tar cigarettes. J.L. Repace, "Effect of Ventila- cians, Health or Smoking. Recent studies sug- tion on Passive Smoking Risk in a Model gesting increased risk of respiratory disease Workplace," in J.E. Janssen, Management of in children as a result of parental smoking Atmospheres in Tightly Enclosed Spaces, Proceed- include A. Charlton, "Children's coughs ings of an Engineering Foundation Confer- Related to Parental Smoking," British Medical ence, Santa Barbara, Calif., October 17-21, Journal, June 2, 1984, and W.J. Morgan and 1983 (Atlanta: American Society of Heating, L.M. Taussig, "The Chronic Bronchitis Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engi- Complex in Children," Pediatric Clinks of neers, Inc., 1983). North America, August 1984. 40. Ibid. 46. Trager et al., "Longitudinal Study of 41. I. Batar, R.P. Bernard, and L. Lampe, Maternal Smoking." "Effects of Hypertensive Disorders on the 47. Ibid. Outcome of Pregnancy: Early Finding.; of Maternity Care Monitoring (MCM) in De- 48. Alan Blum, "If Smoking Killed Baby brecen, Hungary," Clinical and Experimental Seals," New York State Journal of Medicine, July Hypertension,1982; J.M. Foidart, "Tobacco 1985. and Pregnancy," Revue Medicate de Liege, Sep- 49. For an example of this argument, see tember 1, 1983 (in French). William F. Buckley, Jr., "The Weed," in Wil- 42. S. Wilner et al., "A Comparison of liam R. Finger, The Tobacco Indus:17, in Transi- Smoking and Other Maternal Behavior Dur- tion(Lexir gton, Mass.: Lexington Books, ing Pregnancy of Patients in a Health Mainte- 1981). nance Organization and Fee-For-Service 50. BryanR.LuceandStuart0. Practices," in Maternity Care in Two Health Care 3chweit.zer, "Smoking and Alcohol Abuse: A Systems, Doctoral Dissertation Abstracts, Har- Compariton of Their Economic Conse- vard University, June 1981; M. Cnansoriya, quences,'NIew England Journal of Medicine, K.K. Kaul, and R.C. Verma, "Effect of To- March 9, 1978; National Research Council, bacco Chewing by Mothers on Fetal Out- Committee on Diet, Nutrition, and Cancer, come," Indian Pediatrics, February 1983. Diet, Nutrition, and Cancer (Washington, D.C.: 43. Ravertholt, "Addiction Mortality in the National Academy Press, 1982). For an over- United States, 1980"; E. Menghetti, "Mater- view of the relative carcinogenic risk of nal Smoking in Pregnancy: Recent Acquisi- common items, see B.N. Ames, "Dietary Car- tions on Its Consequences in Infants," Rivista cinogens and Anticarcinogens," Science, Sep- Italtana di Pediatria, March/April 1983 (in tember 23, 1983. 254

-",011 Notes (241) 51. Roemer, Legislative Action; T JSDA, FAS, 57. Ibid. "Tariff and Nontariff Restrictions on To- 58. Jonathan E. Fielding, "Effectiveness of bacco." Employee Health Improvement Programs," 52. A number of multiple linear regres- Journal of Occupational Medicine, November sions were performed with data on smoking 1982; Environmental Improvement Associ- per capita, cigarette price, per capita income, ates, "Improving the Work Environment: A and policy strength. The strength of policy Management Guide to Smoke Free Work consistently showed a small but positive asso- Areas," Salem, NJ., January 1988; Marvin M. ciation with consumption even when price Kristein, "How Much Can Business Expect to and income were controlled for The associa- Profit from Smoking Cessation?" Preventive tion between price and consumption was not Medicine, Vol. 12, 1988, pp. 858 -381. meaningful, perhaps because prices are con- 59. Human Resources Policy Corpora- trolled in many countries. In one regression tion, "Smoking Policies in Large Corpora- of consumption on per capita income and tions," Los Angeles, 1985. policy strength, the result was In Consump- tion = 4.2 + .31 X in Income + .21 X Ln 60. Zhao Jinming, "Tobacco Industry Sets Policy Score (t = 4.15 and 1.77, respectively; Dual Targets," China Daily, May 22, 1985; R2 = .63). Policy scores were based on Ro- Bharat Dogra, "Farm Exports from a Hungry emer, Legislative Action, and on USDA, FAS, Land," Economic and Political Weekly, March "Tariff and Nontariff Measures on Tobacco." 23, 1985. Price elasticity for the United States was es- 61. "How EEC Subsidises Smoking," New timated to be -.3, using data. ,nn Tobacco Scientist, May 17, 1984; Lawrence Spohn, Institute, The Tax Burden on Tobacco: Historical "Tobacco Dilemma Intensifying in North Compilation 1983 (Washington, D.C.: 1984). Carolina," New York State Journal of Medicine, Consumption data in this section are from July 1985. USDA, computer printout. See also "The Cigarette Excise Tax," Harvard University 62. World Health Organization, Smoking for the Study of Smoking Behavior and Pol- Control Strategies in Developing Countries, Tech- icy, Cambridge, Mass., April 17, 1985. nical Report Series 695 (Geneva: 1983). 53. Royal College of Physicians, Health or 63. The nations in this category are mainly in Africa. Examples include: Chad, Ethiopia, Smoking. Niger, Nigeria, Peru, Sudan, Uganda, and 54. Shiffman, "The Tobacco Withdrawal Zaire, all of which record annual consump- Syndrome." tion of fewer than 300 cigarettes per capita 55. For a brief overview of specific actions (age 15 and older), and in many of which the in the nonsmokers' rights movement, see figure is less than 200. New York State Journal of Medicine, July 1985, 64. Royal College of Physicians, Health or Phyllis L. Kahn, "The Minnesota Clean In- Smoking. door Air Act, A Model for New York and Other States," New York State Journal of Medi- cine, December 1983, and "Effects of 'Passive Chapter 9. Investing in Children Smoking' Lead Nonsmokers to Step Up 1. Kathleen Newland, Infant Mortality and Campaign," Journal of the American Medical As- the Health of Societies (Washington, D.C.: sociation, May 24/31, 1985. Worldwatch Institute, March 1981). For an 56. American Cancer Society, "Clean In- excellent analysis of the effect of population door Air Legislation-Update on Division growthon economic development,see Experience," Washington, D.C.,revised, World Bank, World Development Report 1984 January 1985. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984). 255 (242) Notes 2. Paul Streeten et al., First Things First: 10. Margaret Cameron and Yngve Nof- Meeting Basic Human Needs in the Developing vander, Manual on Feeding Infants and Young Countries(New York: Oxford University Children (New York: Oxford University Press, Press, 1981); Theodore Schultz, Investing in 1984). People (Berkeley, Calif.: University of Califor- nia Press, 1981). 11. Poster displayed at UNICEF office in Dakar, SeneFal, March 1985. 3. United Nations Children's Fund (UNI- CEF), State of the World's Children 1985 (New 12. "Food Program for Pregnant Women York: Oxford University Press, 1984); World Raises Infant Birth Weight, Gestational Age, Bank, World Bank Atlas 1985 (Washington, Reduces Mortality," Family Planning Perspec- D.C.: 1985); UNICEF, State of the World's Chil- tives, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1985. dren 1984 (New York: Oxford University 13. UNICEF, State of the World's Children Press, 1983); World Health Organization, 1985. Development of Indicators for Monitoring Progress Towards Health For All by the Year 2000 (Ge- 14. R. Feachem and M. Koblinsky, "Inter- neva: 1981); "The Major Public Health Kill- ventions for the Control of Diarrhoeal Dis- ers," International Health Magazine (Interna- eases Among Young Children: Measles Im- tionalDrinkingWaterandSanitation munization,"Bulletin of theWorld Health Decade), No. 10, 1984. Organization, Vol. 61, No. 4, 1983; UNICEF, 4. For a discussion of this potential, see State of the World's Children 1984. William U. C,andler, Improving World Health: 15. Jean-Hubert Thieffry, "Un Thesis de A Least Cost citegy (Washington, D.C.: World- Medicine," University d'Anies, France; Mi- watch Inst,Le, July 1984). chelle Thieffry, Voluntaire du Cooperation, 5. United Nations, Department of Interna- Thies,Senegal,privatecommunication, tional Economic and Social Affairs, Demo- March 1985. graphic Y'srbook (New York: 1982); Popula- 16 "One Way to Get Results," World De- tion Reference Bureau, 1985 World Population velopment Forum, October 15, 1984; "Vaccina- Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1985). tion Blitz," China Daily, February 5, 1985. 6. World Health Organization pressre- 17. R. N. Basu, "India's Immunization leases; UNICEF, State of the World's Children Programme," World Health Forum, Vol. 6, No. 1984. 1, 1985; Population Reference Bureau, 1985 7. Derived from World Bank, World D vel- World Population Data Sheet. opment Report 1984. 18. W. Henry Mosely and Lincoln Chen, 8. "Diarrhoea, Dehydration, and Drugs," eds., Child Survival: Strategies for Research,re- Bntuh Medical Journal, November 10, 1985; printed in Population and Development Review, "...'NICEF, State of the World's Clutch-en 1984; Supplement to Vol. 10, 1984. Jean Paul Beau, L'Organisation de Science et Technologie d'Outre Mer, Pikine, Senegal, 19. Hattib N-Jie, Deputy Director, Medical private communication, March 6, 1985. and Health Ministry, The Gambia, private communication, March 12, 1985. 9. J. Welsh and J. May, "Anti-infective Properties of Breast Milk," Journal of Pedia- 20. Norbert Engel, UNICEF Information trics, Vol. 94, No. 1, 1979; I. Bravo et al.. Officer, Dakar, Senegal, private communica- "Breast-feeding, Weight Gains, Diarrhea, tion, March 14, 1985. and Malnutrition in the First Year of Life," 21. Curt Fischer, Regional Medical Direc- Bulletin of the Pan Amencan Health Organisation, tor, Ministry of Health, The Gambia, private Vol. 18, No. 2, 1984. communication, March 16, 1985; Engel, pri-

256 -

Notes (243 ) vate communication; N-Jie, private commu- 30. Edward Girardet, "Afghanistan: No. 1 nication. Need is Food," Christian Science Monitor, De- 22. Dean T. Jamison et al., China: The cember 28, 1984; Institute of Nutrition and Health Sector (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Food Science, "Nutrition Survey of Rural 1984). Bangladesh," ADAB News (Association of De- velopment Agencies in Bangladesh), May/ 23. PeterBourne,President,Global June 1984; Mushtaq Ahmed and DJ. Cle- Water, Inc., Washington, D.C., private comments, "Problems Associated with Wheat munication, April 3, 1984. Production in Bangladesh," and "Food Pol- 24. U.S. Agency for International Devel- icy," editorial in ADAB News, September/Oc- opment (AID), Safe Water and Waste Disposal tober 1984; Hugh Brammer, "Development for Human Health: A Program Guide (Washing- Strategies in Famine Prone Areas," ADAB ton, D.C.: 1982); Pan American Health Orga- News, November/December 1984. nization,HealthConditionsinthe Americas 31. See Robert Orr Whyte and Pauline 1977-1980 (Washington, D.C.: 1982); World Whyte, The Women of Rural Asia (Boulder, Bank, Health Sector Policy Paper (Washington, Colo.: Westview Press, 1982); Edna G. Bay, D.C.: 1980); World Bank, "Water Supply and ed., Women and Work in Africa (Boulder, Colo.: Waste Disposal," Poverty and Basic Needs Series, Westview Press, 1982); Catherine Overholt Washington, D.C., 1983. et al., eds., Gender Roles in Development Projects 25. John M. Hunter, Luis Rey, and David (West Hartford, Conn.: Kumarian Press, Scott, "Man-made LakesMan-made Disas- 1985); Karen Oppenheim Mason, The Status ters," World Health Forum, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1983; of Women (New York: The Rockefeller Foun- Paul L. Aspelin and Silvio Coelhodas Santos, dation, 1984); Natalie Kaufman Hevener, In- Indian Areas Threatened by Hydro-electric Projects ternational Law and the Status of Women (Boul- in Brazil (Copenhagen: International Work- der, Colo.: Westview Press,1983); U.S. ing Group for Indigencus Affairs, 1981); Bureau of the Census and AID, Women of the AID, Safe Water and Waste Disposal. World: Sub-Saharan Africa (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1984); U.S. 26. AID, Safe Water and Waste Disposal; En- Bureau of the Census and AID, Women of the vironmental Sanitation Information Center, World: Latin America and the Carribean (Wash- Human Waste Management For Low-Income Set- ington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, tlements(Bangkok:1983);World Bank, 1984); Sue Ellen M. Charlton, Women in Third "Water Supply and Waste Disposal"; John World Development (Boulder, Colo.: Westview M. Kalbermatten et al., Appropriate Sanitation Press, 1984). Alternatives (Baltimore, Md.: The Johns Hop- kins University Press, 1982). 32. Engel, private communication. 27. Chandler, Improving World Health. 33. ENDA community worker,Dakar, Senegal, private communication regarding 28. Peter Morgan, Blair Research Labora- the Senegalese Minister of Agriculture, tory, Harare, Zimbabwe, private communica- March 10, 1985. tion, April 3, 1985; Peter Morgan, "Blair Re- search Bulletins for Rural Water Supply and 34. Ann Crittenden, "Shortchanging a Sanitation,"BlairResearchLaboratory, Food Program That Works," Wall Street Jour- Harare, Zimbabwe, March 1985. nal, February 28, 1985; International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), A Fund 29. Southern African Development Coor- For the Rural Poor (Rome: 1984). dination Conference, SADCC, Agriculture To- ward 2000 (Rome: Food and Agriculture Or- 35. The cost of providing agricultural pro- ganization, 1984). ductivity loans is a crude extrapolation from

257 (244) Notes the experience of the International Fund for 41. As reported in Le Sahel, February 6, Agricultural Development (see IFAD, A Fund 1985, and translated by U.S. Department of for the Rural Poor) and observations in Zim- State, March 1985. babwe. Most estimates include a conservative 42. David Willis, "Price Tag on Slowing assumption that the high end of the range of costs will be necessary for delivery of the ser- World Population Growth: $4 Billion a vices. Year," Christian Science Monitor, August 16, 1984; Joseph Speidel, "Cost Implications of 36. Bureau of the Census and AID, Women Population Stabilization," presented at the of the World: Sub-Saharan Africa; U.S. Bureau International Workshop on Cost-Effective- of the Census and AID, Women of the World: ness and Cost-Benefit Analysis in Family Latin America and the Carribean; Whyte and Planning Programs, St. Michael's, Md., Au- Whyte, Women of Rural Asia; James Trussell gust 17-20, 1981; R.A. Bulatao, draft memo- and Anne R. Pebley, ''The Potential Impact randum to the World Bank, April 9, 1984. of Changes in Fertility on Infant, Child, and 43. Michael P. Todaro, Economic Develop- Maternal Mortality," Studies in Family Plan- ment in the Third World (London: Langman ningNovember/December 1984; Marilyn Group, 1977); World Bank, World Development Edmonds and John M. Paxman, "Early Preg- Report 1983 (New York: Oxford University nancy and Childbearing in Guat'mala, Bra- Press, 1983). zil, Nigeria, and Indonesia: Addressing the Consequences," Pathpapers (Pathfinder Fund, 44. Schultz, Investing :n People. Boston), September 1984. 45. Organisation for Economic Co-opera- 37. UNICEF, State of the World's Children tion and Development, Development Coopera- 1989; Cecile de Sweemer, "The Influence of tion (Paris: 1984). Child Spacing on Child Survival," Population Studies, Vol. 38 (1984), pp. 47-72; M. Potts, B.S. Janowitz, and J.A. Forney, eds., Childbirth Chapter 10. Reversing Africa's Decline In Developing Countries (Hingham, Mass.: MTP 1. Estimate of Africans fed with imported Press, 1983); Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Ronald grain in 1984 based on import figures from D. Lee, Determinants of Fertility in Developing U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Countries, V ols. 1 and 2 (New York: Academic Foreign Agricultural Service, Foreign Agricul- Press, 1933). ture Circular FG-8-84, Washington, D.C., May 38. Tnissell And Pebley, "Potential Impact 1984, and on assumption that one ton of of Changes in Fertility." grain will feed roughly six people for a year, assessment of displaced people from United 39. World Bank, World Development Report Nations, "Report on the Emergency Situa- 1989; "In Kenya, Modernization, Drop in tion in Africa," New York, February 22, 1985; Breastfeeding and Low Contraceptive Use estimate of famine deaths from U.N. Eco- Bring Rising Fertility," International Family nomic Commission for Africa (ECA), "Sec- Planning PersOectives, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1984; ond Special Memorandum by the ECA Con- Maleba Gomes, "Family Size and Education ference of Ministers: International Action for Attainment in Kenya," Population and Develop- Relaunching the Initiative for Long-Term ment Review, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1984. Development and Economic Growthin 40. Nancy Harris, former Regional Direc- Africa," Addis Ababa, April 25-29, 1985. tor, African Region, International Family 2. USDA, Economic ResearchService Planning Assistance, Nairobi, Kenya, prive (ERS), World Indices of Agricultural and Food communication, March 1985; see also Chap- Production, 1950-89 (unpublished printout) ter 10 in this volume. (Washington, D.C.: 1985). 25& Notes (245) 3. ECA, "Second Special Memorandum." 16. U.S. Agency for International Devel- opment (AID), Bureau for Africa, Energy, For- 4. PaulLewis, "Donor Nations Form estry and Natural Resources Activities in the Africa Africa Fund With World Bank," New York Region (Washington, D.C: January 1984); Times, February 2, 1985; United Nations John Spears, "Review of World Bank Fi- Office for Emergency Operations in Africa, nanced Forestry Activity FY1984," World Afr.c.i. Emergency Report, April/May 1985. The Bank, Washington, D.C., June 30, 1984. special facility for sub-Saharan Africa is also discussed in World Bank, Annual Report 1985 17. Spears, "Review of World Bank Fi- (Washington, D.C.: 1985). nanced Forestry Activity." 5. Calculated from Population Reference 18. FAO data cited in Office of Technol- Bureau, 1985 World Population Data Sheet ogy Assessment, U.S. Congress, Technologies (Washington, D.C.: 1985). to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources (Washing- 6. U.N. projections cited in Thomas J. ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, Goliber, "Sub-Saharan Africa: Population 1984). Pressures on Development," Population Bulle- 19. Plantation share of fuelwood supply tin (Washington, D.C.: Population Reference from Dennis Anderson and Robert Fishwick, Bureau, February 1985). Fuelwood Consumption and Deforestation in Afri- 7. Ibid. can Countries, Staff Working Paper No. 704 8. Ibid. (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1984). For economic analysis of reforestation programs, 9. Fred Sai, Senior Population Adviser, see Kenneth Newcombe, An Economic Justifica- World Bank, Washington, D.C., private com- turn for Rural Afforestation: the Case of Ethiopia, munication, October 2, 1985. Energy Department Paper No. 16 (Washing- 10. Private communications, April 30-May ton, D.C.: World Bank, 1934), and U.N. De- 5, 1985. velopment Program/World Bank Energy 11. Population Institute, Toward Population Sector Assessment Program, Ethiopia: Issues Stabilization: Findings From Project 1990 (New and Options in the Energy Sector, Report No. York: 1984). 4741-ET (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1984). 12. Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Expenditures on Population Programs in Developing Regions: Cur- 20. Anderson and Fishwick, Fuelwood Con- rent Levels and Future Requirements, Staff Work- sumption and Deforestation. ing Paper No. 679 (Washington, D.C.: World 21. J.B.RaintreeandB.Lundgren, Bank, 1985). "Agroforestry Potentials for Biomass Pro- 13. Private communications,April30, duction in integrated Land Ueo Systems," 1985. presented at Biomass Energy Systems: Build- 14. United Nations Food and Agriculture ing Blocks for Sustainable Development, a Organization (FAO), Tropical Forest Resources, conference sponsored by the World Re- Forestry Paper 30 (Rome: 1982). sources Institute and the Rockefeller Broth- ers Fund, Airlie, Va., January 29-February 1, 15. Anne de Lattre and Arthur M. Fell, The 1985. Club du Sahel: An Experiment in International Co- operation (Paris: Organisation for Economic 22. T.M. Catterson, "AID Experience in Co-operation and Development, 1984), Club the Forestry Sector in the Sahel-Opportuni- du Sahel, "Food Self-Sufficiency and Ecolog- ties for the Future," presented to the Meet- ical Balance in the Sahel Countries," Paris, ing of the Steering Committee, CILSS/Club May 27, 1982. du Sahel, Paris, June 14-15, 1984.

259 (24 6) Notes 23. Fred R. Weber, "Technical Updateon ternational Association of Hydrological Sci- Forestry EF- 'n Africa," in AID, Bureau ences, 1984). for Africa, Report of Workshop on Forestry Pro- gram Evaluation (Washington, D.C.: August 33. Rattan Lal, No-Till Farming, Mono- 1984). graph No. 2 (Ibadan, Nigeria: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, 1983). 24. Dr. Y. Dommergues, "using Biotech- nologies for Improving the Forest Cover of 34. International Institute of Tropical Ag- the Sahelian and Sudanian Zones,"pre- riculture (IITA), Tasks for the Eighties: An Ap- sented to the World Bank, Washington, D.C. praisal of Progress(Ibadan, Nigeria: April April 17, 1984; National Research Council, 1983). Board on Science and Technology for Inter- 35. Jones and Egli, Farming Systems. national Development, Environmental Change in the West African Sahel (Washington, D.C.: 36. M.J. Swift, ed., "Soil Biological Pro- National Academy Press, 1983). cl,sset. and Tropical Soil Fertility: A Proposal for a Collaborative Programme ol lcaearch," 25. MichaelDow,NationalResearch Biology International, Special Issue-5, 1984. Council, private communication, Washing- ton, D.C., March 27, 1985; Anderson and 37. Quoted in "Ger-- Highlights," News from CGIAR (Washi Fishwick, Fuelwood Consumption and Deforesta- ., D.C.), Dece.lw-s. 1984. tion . 26. Weber, "Technical Update." 38. Jones and Egli, Farming Systems. For a thorough introduction to agroforestry,see 27. World Bank, Accelerated Development in National Research Council, Board on Sci- Sub-Saharan Afnca (Washington, D.C.: 1981). ence and Technology for International De- 28. Hans Hurni, Soil Conservation Re- velopment, Agrofores try in the West African Sahel search Project, Addis Ababa, private (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, com- 1984). munications, January 9 and February 13, 1985. 39. IITA, Annual Report 1983( Ibadan: 1984). 29. Soil Conservation Research Project, Comps, 'n of Phase I Progress Reports (Addis 40. Peter Felker, Texas A&I University, Ababa: June 1984). cited in National Research Council, Agrofores- try 30. Swedish International Development Authority, Soil Conservation in Kenya, 1980 Re- 41. Ernest Stern, Senior Vice-President, view(Stockholm: December 1980); "Soil Operations, "The Evolving Role of the Bank Conservation in Kenya: An Interview with in the 1980s," presented to the Agriculture Carl-Gosta Wenner," Ambw, Vol. 12, No. 6, Symposium, World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1983. January 13, 1984. 31. William I. Jones and Roberto Egli, 42. IITA, Tasks for the Eighties: A Long- Fanning System in Africa, Technical Paper Range Plan ( Ibadan, Nigeria: June 1981). Number 27 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 43. USDA, ERS, World Indices. 1984). 44. FAO, Production Yearbook (Rome: vari- 32. Michael Stocking, "Rates of Erosion ous years). and Sediment Yield in the African Environ- ment," in D.E. Walling, S.S.D. )oster, and P. 45. Ibid. Wurzel, eds., Challenges in African Hydrology 46. FAO, Fertilizer Yearbook (Rome: various and Water Resources (Oxfordshire, U.K.: In- years). 260 is Notes (247) 47. USDA, ERS, World Indices. (Washington, D.C.: various years); world 48. Jean Gorse, "Desertification in the economic output figures in 1960 from Her- bert R. Block, The Planetary Product in 1980 Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of West (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Africa" (draft), World Rank, Washington, State, 1981). D.C., February 1985. 3. ACDA, World Military Expenditures and 49. Robbie Mupawose, Secretary of Agri- Arms Transfers 1985; Dan Gallik, international culture, Harare, Zimbabwe, private commu- economist, ACDA, Washington, D.C., pri- nication, April 30, 1985. vate communication, September 1985. 50. Peter Brumby, International Livestock 4. Quoted in June Kronholz, "Taking Up Center for Africa (ILCA), Addis Ababa, pri- Arms: Third World's Buying of Weaponry vate communication, April 1985; see also Surges, Posing Risks, Burdens," Wall Street ILCA, Annual Report 1983 (Addis Ababa: faunal, June 29, 1982. 1984). 5. ACDA, World Military Expenditures and 51. Christel Palmberg, FAO, Rome, pri- Arms Transfers (various years). vate communication, May 17, 1985. 6. ACDA, World Military Expenditures and 52. See, for example, ECA, ECA and Anne Transfers 1985; for further information Africa's Development 1983-2008 (Addis Ababa: on militarization in Africa, see Sanford J. April 1983). African Development Bank, Ungar, Africa: The People and Politics of An ti "Desertification and Economic and Social Emerging Continent (New York: Simon and Development in Africa," summary remarks at Schuster, 1985). the 1985 Annual Meeting Symposium, Braz- zaville, Congo, May 8, 1985, and Adebayo 7. Arms imports worldwide from ACDA, Adedeji, "Hunger and Poverty in Sub-Saha- World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers ran Africa: The Immediate Focus," pre- (various years); grain imports derived from sented to the 1985 International Develop- U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), ment Conference, Washington, D.C., March Economic Research Service (ERS). World In- 20, 1985. dices of Agricultural and Food Production 1950- 1984 (unpublished printout) (Washington, 53. Flora Lewis, "A Risk for Africa," New D.C.: 1985), and from International Mone- York Times, March 18, 1985. For information tary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statis- on one such suggested youth corps, see tics Yearbook 1985 (Washington, D.C.: 1985). David K. Willis, "European Youth Eager to Help in Third World," Christian Science Moni- 8. ACDA, World Military Expenditures and tor, April 18, 1985. Arms Transfers 1985; USDA, Foreign Agricul- tural Service, Foreign Agriculture Circular FG- 13-85, Washington, D.C., October 1985; Chapter 11. Redefining National Secu- IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook rity 1985. 1. United States Arms Control and Disar- 9. ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1985. mament Agency (ACDA), World Military Ex- penditures and Arms Transfers 1985 (Washing- 10. Sanford J.Ungar,"TheMilitary ton, D.C.: 1985); income figures from World Money Drain," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Bank, World Development Report 1985 (New September 1985. York. Oxford University Press, 1985). 11. Clifford D. May, "Africa's Men in 2. Global military statistics from ACDA, Khaki Are Often a Law Unto Themselves," World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers New York Times, October 6, 1985.

2 61 (24 8 ) Notes 12. Colin Norman, Knowledge and Power: Local Water Resources in Central Asia and The Global Research and Development Budget Southern Kazakhstan," Soviet Geography, June (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1982. June 1979). See also Ruth Leger Sivard, World Military and Social Expenditures (Wash- 20. British Petroleum Company, BP Statis- ington, D.C.: World Priorities, 1985). tical Review of World Energy (London: 1985). 13. Norman, Knowledge and Power. 21. Cohn, "Declining Soviet Capital Pro- ductivity." 14. United States Census Bureau, Statisti- 22. Ibid. cal Abstract of the United States 1985 (Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 23. Discussion of reforms in the Soviet 1985); Office of Management and Budget, Union in Leslie H. Gelb, "'Gradual' Changes The Budget of the United States Government in the Soviet 5-Year Plan," New York Times, (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin- October 14, 1985. For a discussion of the ting Office, annual); data on the net interest effects of military spending on Sovietecon- paid on the federal debt from United States omy, se Stanley H. Cohn, The Productivity of Government, Economic Report of the President Soviet Investment and the Economic Burden of De- 1985 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government fense (Washington, D.C.: National Council Printing Office, 1985). for Soviet and East European Research, 1983), and Cohn, "Declining Soviet Capital 15. Job loss estimates from Robert B. Productivity." For a similar discussion of the Reich, "Reagan's Hidden 'Industrial Pol- impact of military spending on the U.S.econ- icy'," New York Times, August 4, 1985, and omy, see Robert W. DeGrasse, Jr., Military from tables prepared for the Congressional Expansion, Economic Decline: The Impact of Milt- Joint Economic Committee by Bureau of taty Spending on U.S. Economic Performance (Ar- Labor Statistics, Office of Employment and monk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., for Council Unemployment Analysis, United States De- on Economic Priorities, 1983). partment of Labor, Washington, D.C., June 7, 1985. 24. Per capita income derived from income data for the Soviet Union from ACDA, 16. Stanley H. C'ch, "Declining Soviet World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers Capital Productivity and the Soviet Military (various years), and for Japan from IMF, In- Industrial Complex," in ACDA, World Mili- ternational Financial Statistics Yearbook 1985; taryExpenditures and Arms Transfers 1984 population data from Population Reference (Washington, D.C.: 1984). Bureau, 1985 World Population Data Sheet 17. Ed A. Hewitt, Energy, Economics, and (Washington, D.C.: 1985), and from United Foreign Policy in the Smut Union (Washington, Nations, Department of International Eco- D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1984). nomic and Social Affairs, World Population and Its Age-Sex Composition By Country, 1950-2000 18. Vera Rich, "Soil First," Nature, Febru- (New York: 1980). ary 12, 1982. 25. Japanese net foreign assets derived 19. Soviet water availability data from from Japan Statistical Bureau,Japan Statistical G.V. Voropayev et al., "The Problem of Yearbook (Tokyo: 1965), from Bank of Japan, Redistribution of Water Resources in the Balance of Payments Monthly (Tokyo: April Midlands Region of the USSR," Soviet Geogra- 1973), from Bank of Japan, External Assets and phy, December 1983; Philip P. Micklin, "The Liabilities of Japan (Tokyo: April 1981), and Vast Diversion of Soviet Rivers," Environ- from Laura Knoy, Institute for International ment, March 1985; A.S. Kes' et al., "The Pre- Economics, Washington, D.C., privatecom- sent State and Future Prospects of Using munication, September 1985; U.S. foreign 262 Notes (249) assets from U.S. Department of Commerce, 31. Garcia quoted in Jeffrey Sachs, "How Historical Statistics of the United States Volume II To Save The Third World," New Republic, (Washington, D.C.: annual). See also E.S. October 28, 1985; information on Brazil and Browning, "Gnomes of Tokyo: Japanese Set Argentina in John Burgess, "Few Batiks Rush Up Role of Investing Overseas In Bonds, To Aid Latin America," Washington Post, Oc- Real Estate," Wall Street Journal, August 15, tober 13, 1985. 1985; David Hale, "U.S. As Debtor: A Threat 32. Peter T. Kilborn, "Bank in Rockland to World Trade," New York Times, September Shut by the U.S. as Insolvent," New York 22, 1985; Peter T. Kilborn, "A Nation Living Times, September 14, 1985; Nathaniel C. on Borrowed Money and, Perhaps, Time," Nash, "Adjusting to 100 Failed Banks," New New York Times, September 22, 1985. York Times, November 6, 1985. 26. Information on declining land productivity and declining per capita grain produc- 33. Charles F. McCoy, "Out of Options: tion from USDA, ERS, World Indices. Farm Credit System, Buried in Bad Loans, Seeks Big U.S. Bailout," Wall Street Journal, 27 Mary Tobin, "Mexico Signs Debt Re- September 4, 1985; "Blighted Ledgers: Farm structuring Plan," Washington Post, August Credit System Relies on Accounting That 30, 1985; Robert J. McCartney, "New Loans Hides Bad Loans," Wall Street Journal, Octo- to Mexico in Doubt," Washington Post, Sep- ber 7, 1985. For a discussion of the causes of tember 16, 1985; William Orme, "Mexico is financial stress in U.S. agriculture, see USDA, Expected to Ask for Billions More," Washing- ERS, The Current Financial Condition of Fanners ton Post, September 24, 1985. See also James and Farm Lenders (Washington, D.C.: March L. Rowe, Jr, "Debt Noose Tightens Around 1985); information on Continental Illinois Latin America," Washington Post, September from Federal Deposit Insurance Corpora- 29, 1985. tion, "Permanent Assistance Program for 28. Farmland productivity trends crom Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust USDA, ERS, World Indices; Sudan's debtor Company," Washington, D.C., July 26, 1984. position described in "The Year After the 34. C. Fred Bergsten, "The Second Debt Drought: How Much recovery for Ethic pia Cris.; is Coming," Challenge, May/June 1985. and Sudan?" ERS, USDA, Agricultural Outlook, Washington, D.C., October 1985. 35. "China Maps Big Cuts in Military 29. Collapse of the Peruvian anchovy Strength, "Journal of Commerce, July 31, 1985; "Dent's Military Build-Down," Far Eastern fishery discussed in Erik Eckholm, Losing Ecormic Review, August 22, 1985. Ground: Environmental Stress and World Food Prospects (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 36. ACDA, World Military Expenditures and 1976); Alan Riding, "In Peru, a New Person- Arms Transfers 1985, Alfred J. Watkins, "Ar- ality Attracts a Cult," New York Times, August gentine Debt: Playing by the Rules," Report on 4, 1985; "Will Peru's Tough Talk Spark a the Americas, July/August 1985. Debtor's Revolt?" Business Week, August 12, 37. Riding, "In Peru, a New Personality 1985; James Brooke, "Peruvian President, at Attracts a Cult"; "The Young Are So Impetu- the U.N., Warns I.M.F. That Debt Repay- ous," The Economist, August 3, 1985. ment Must Be Eased," New York Times, Sep- tember 24, 1985. 38. Riding, "In Peru, a New Personality 30. John M. Goshko, "U.S. Maps New Attracts a Cult." Strategy In Debt Crisis," Washington Post, 39. Estimate of famine deaths in Africa September 21, 1985; James L. Rowe, Jr., from U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, "Private Banks Urged to Boost Third World "Second Special Memorandum by the ECA Loans," Washington Post, October 6, 1985. Conference of Ministers: International Ac-

263 (250) Notes tion for Relaunching the Initiative for Long- 41. "Statement of Mr. Robert Wesson," in Term Development and Economic Growth in U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Rela- Africa," Addis Ababa, April 25-29, 1985. tions, Subcommittee on AfricanAffairs, 40. Alexand '7 Cockburn, "Heed the SOS African Debt Crisis,Hearing, October 24, on Third Wor i Finances," Wall StreetJournal, 1985. September 12, 1985.

264 Index

Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank and, 84, 178, 179, 182-83, 184 186-87, 192, 193 acid rain, 9 see alsoindividual countries in and coal use, 87-88 ilfrua in Crisis, 68 damage to forests by, 22, 24, 29-30, 87 African Development Bank, 192, 193 Adedeji, Adebayo, 192 Agency for International Development, Afghanistan, grain production in, 34 U.S. (USAID), 182, 183 Africa agriculture agriculture in, 177-78, 185-91 in Africa, 177-78, 185-91 agroforestry in, 183-84, 187 in China, 5 child health in, 159-60, 162-66 dryland, 45-48 croplands in, 47, 179, 1R4 -91 and ecological deterioration, 26-28 deforestation in, 28-29, 181, 182 rain-fed, 45-48 desertification in, 36-37, 38-39 in Third World, 169-71, 174 ecological deterioration in, 8, 22-29, 31, water withdrawals for, 41, 43-44 32, 34-39, 72, 73, 74, 177-94 see alsocropland; grain; soil energy use in, 103 agroforestry, 183-84, 187 family planning in, 173-74, 177-81 Alaska, oil in, 88-90 fertilizer use in, 189 alcohol fuel, in Third World, 83, 86 food deficits in, 15, 16-17, 177-78, 192 Alfonsin, Raul, 207-08 food-price policies in, 170, 188, 190-91 American Council for an Energy-Efficient forests in, 178, 179, 181-84 Economy, 105 fuelwood use in, 181, 182-83, 190 Anderson, Dennis, 183, 184 grain trends in, 14, 177, 188-89, 190 Anderson, Walter Truett, 37 grasslands in, 25-26, 64, 178, 179 aquifer irrigation in, 47, 189 and nuclear waste disposal site selection, livestock in, 25-26, 62, 64, 67, 68-69, 126 73, 75, 183, 191 Ogallala, 61 malnutrition in, 159, 161, 163, 168, 169, overdrafts of, 34, 41, 42, 51, 54, 59 177 recharge of, 10-11, 30 migration in, 36 see alsogroundwater military spending by, 197 Aral Sea (Soviet Union), 61 oil use in, 84 Argentina, military spending by, 207-08 pastoralism in, 67, 68-69, 190, 191 Arizona, University of, 48 policy options for, 177-78, 179, 190-94 Arizona, water conservation in Tucson, 48, population growth in 178-81 53-54, 60 rangeland regeneration in, 75 armaments reforestation in, 20, 21, 181-84 spending for, 207-08 soil conservation in, 20-21, 178, 184-87 trade in, 196-98 water use in, 47, 57, 189 Armco Steel, 50

265 (252) Index

Army Corps of Engineers, U.S., 61 breast-feeding, 161-63, 167, 172 Athi River (Kenya), 77 Bremen, H., 68 Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Brown, Jerry, 115 132 Bulgaria, and smoking, 153-54 Atomic Industrial Forum, 129 Bureau of Land Management (BLM), 66, Australia 73-74 ecological deterioration in, 73 Burnett, Earl, 46 energy intensity of economic activity in, 84 California tobacco use in, 146 biomass energy in, 111 water policy in, 58 cogeneration projects in, 110 Austria, water use in, 56 energy efficiency programs in, 107 Ayoub, Ibrahim Taha, 8 nuclear plants in, 117, 123, 134 nuclear plants, legislation against, 126 Bangladesh small-power programs in, 110, 111, ecological deterioration in, 34, 159 112-13, 115-18 grain production in, 32 utility deregulation in, 116 tobacco use in, 141 water use in, 43, 50, 52, 58 Bartone, Carl R., 53 wind power use in, 112-13 Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, California Department of Water Resources, 128-29 55 Beau, Jean Paul, 162-63 California Energy Commission, 113, 115, beef 116 consumption of, 62, 70-72 California Public Utilities Commission, 116 economic costs of, 71-72, 74 Canada exports of, 69-72 decommissioning nuclear reactors in, production of, 62-73 121 Belgium hydropower in, 13, nuclear waste disposal in, 125, 127 oil exports by, 80 tobacco use in, 154 tobacco use in, 140, 142, 146 Bergsten, C. Fred, 207 carrying capacity, 38 Berne, University of, 185 of cropland in Africa, 191 Berry, Leonard, 26, 27 of rangeland, 25, 73-74, 76 Bhuiyan, Sadiqul I., 59 Cattetson, Thomas, 183 biomass, in renewable energy technologies, cattle, 69-72, 74 99, 1 1 1 see also livestock Blair Research Laboratory (Zimbabwe), 169 Central America Bolivia ecological deterioration in, 37-38 child health in, 159 military spending by, 197 tobacco use in, 154 see also individual countries in Bonneville Power Administration, 107 Chad, migration in, 37 Bormann, F.H., 24, 25 Chambers, Robert, 44 Bourguiba, President (Tunisia), 36 Chapman, Duane, 129 Bourne, Peter, 167 child health, 159-76 Brazil drinking water and, 168 alcohol fuel use in, 11-12, 83, 86 family planning and, 172-73 cattle raising in, 70-72 population growth and, 173 child health in, 20, 165 in Third World, 20, 21, 174-76 electrification program in, 103-04 child mortality, 159-61 irrigation in, 43-44 Chile military spending by, 197 irrigation in, 45 oil production in, 92, 93 tobacco use in, 142, 150, 154 tobacco prodirtion in, 110, 147 China trade by, 7 agriculture in, 17-19

266 an

e4, Index (253)

antismoking policies in, 153, 156-57 see alsoirrigation; soil, erosion of; child health in, 161 individual countries coal use in, 87 cropping patterns, 45-48 development strategies for, 175 Cuba, oil imports by, 83-84 economic improvement in, 19-20, 21 Czechoslovakia electrification program in, 103-4 pollution in, 30 external debt of, 19 tobacco use in, 141 family planning in, 174, 180 Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences, 30 grain production in, 14, 15, 21 grazing in, 76 debt health care in, 167 and ecological deterioration, 205-06 hydropower in, 13, 112 external, 19-21, 200-01, 204-08, 209-11 military spending by, 5, 19, 207, .08 farm, 3-4 nuclear waste storage in, 125 Third World, 5-8, 19-21, 83, 195, oil production by, 11, 91-92 209-11 primary health care in, 167 U.S., 4, 8, 200-01 reforestation of, 9 of utilities, 98, 101 tobacco production in, 140, 147 decommissioning nuclear reactors, 119-38 tobacco use in, 139-41 cost of, 119, 120, 122, 128-33, 136 water use in, 57 DOE and, 122, 126 cigarettes economic costs of, 119, 120, 122, chemical compounds in, 144 128-36 consumption trends for, 139, 140-43, in Europe, z22-23 152-54 experience with, 122-23 see alsopassive smoking; smoking; financial planning for, 133-38 tobacco and nuclear waste disposal, 123-38 Clinch River breeder reactor, 126 options for, 120-23 Club du Sahel, 181 policy options for, 133-38 coal and reactor designs, 131-32 adverse effects of use of, 87-88 remote-control technologies in, 121, as fuel, 83, 84, 87-88, 94 122, 124 liquefaction of, 11-12 scheduling of, 123 cogeneration World Bank and, 206, 269-10 costs of installing, 110 decontamination,seedecommissioning; efficiency of, 109 nuclear waste, disposal of mass-produced systems for, 110 deficits trends in, 108-10, 115 ecological, 8-11, 195-96, 204-07 use of, 99 economic, 3, 5-8, 200-02 Colombia food, 8, 14-17, 19, 36-38, 177-78, 192 child health in, 165 trade, 7, 11-14, 200-01 oil production in, 92, 93 deforestation, 9, 22-27 Colorado, water use in, 52, 58 in Africa, 181, 182 Commonwealth Edison, Illinois, 136 in the Third World, 28-29 Continental Illinois National Bank and Denmark Trust, 206, 207 biomass energy in, 1 1 1 contraception,seefamily planning nuclear power in, 101 Costa Rica, grain production in, 32 wind power use in, 113 Cregut, Andre, 131 Department of Agriculture, U.S. (USDA), cropland 15 in Africa17,179, 184-91 beef consumption projection by, 57 pressures on, 23, 26-28, 100, 187 tobacco subsidies by, 157 and tobacco production, 147 Department of Energy, U.S. (DOE) trends in, 14, 179, 184-91 cogeneration use forecast by, 110 267

44 (254) Index Department of Energy(continued) of cattle (beef) production, 71-72, 74 and decommissioning nuclearreactors, of cogeneration, 110 122, 126 of decommissioning nuclearreactors, electricity use forecasts by, 102-03 119, 120, 122, 128-36 and Three Mile Island, 136 of ecological deterioration, 22-23,25, Department of Transportation) (DOT), 26, 27-31 U.S., and nuclear waste of electricity generation, 99-100 transportation, 128 of family planning in Africa, 180, 181 desertification of food production, 10 in Africa, 31, 38-39 of irrigation, 44, 46, 47 of rangeland, 72-74 of militarization, 3-5, 196-99, 199-204, developing countries, see Third World 210-11 de Wit, C.T., 68 of nuclear reactor construction, 129-30 The Dimming of America, 103 of pollution, 30-31 DiNoto, Frank, 109 of reducing tobacco use, 156-57 DiPippo, Ronald, 112 of renewable energysources, 11-12, DOE, see Department of Energy, U.S. 110-15 DOT, see Department of Transportation, of tobacco addiction, 146-48 U.S. trends in, 3-8, 19-21, 195-99, 207-08 Dow Chemical Company, cogenerationuse of water recycling, 49, 50 by, 109-10 of water use, 52, 53, 54, 55-56, 57-61 Dow, Michael, 184 Edison, Thomas, 98, 99 Dregne, Harold, 72 efficiency energy, 11-14, 55-56, 78, 83, 84-87, Eastern Europe 95-99 acid rain damage in, 87-88 energy, and oil prices, 94 coal use in, 87-88 energy, in Soviet Union, 201-02 energy efficiency in, 96 water, 40-61 and nuclear waste disposal, 124 water, in Soviet Union, 201 oil use in, 11, 13, 83 Egli, Roberto, 34 tobacco use in, 141, 142 Egypt see also Europe; individual countries in armaments trade by, 198 East Germany military spending by, 197 acid rain in, 87-88 population growth in, 180 tobacco use in, 153 tobacco use in, 142 Ebinger, Charles, 93 electricity ecological deterioration demand for, 126 in Africa, 22-29, 31, 32, 34-39, 177-94 economic costs of, 99-100 assessment of, 22-39, 204-07 efficient use of, 104-08 economic costs of, 22-23, 25, 26, 27-31 "end-use models" and, 105 and externcl debt, 205-06 growth of, 99, 101-02 and nuclear waste disposal, 1`..6, 128 nuclear power generated worldwide, 119 political stress caused by, 35-38 policy options for, 115-118 profiles of, 22-27 price of, 101 of rangeland, 31, 62-63, 69-70, 72-74, subsidies for, 103 7b-77 wasteful use of, 103-04 social consequences of, 6i-3c World Bank and, 103 in Soviet Union, 201-02 see also cogeneration; hydropower; studies of, 22-27, 34-35 nuclear power; wind power in Third World, 22-29, 31, 32-39, Electric Power Research Institute (U.S.), 208-09 105, 129 Economic Commission for Africa, 179 electric utilities, see utilities economic costs El Salvador of alternative fuels, 11-12, 110-15 beef exports by, 71

268

keal001111...... 111.111110.1 s, A

Index (255) child health in, 165 antismoking campaigns in, 152, 153 military spending by, 197 cogeneration use in, 109 Elwell, Henry, 30 legislation on nuclear power, 126 energy intensity of economic activity, fisheries, depletion of, 9 84-87, 201-02 Fishwick, Robert, 183, 184 see also individual countries Florida, 43 energy use Florida Power and Light Company, 105-06 in aluminum production, 31 food-price policies, 14, 15, 18, 34, 36, 170, efficiency of, 11-14, 55-56, 78, 83, 188, 190-91 84-87, 95-99 see also individual countries policy options for, 94-97 food riots, 35-36 in Third World, 83-84, 86 food security, 10, 14-17 in transportation, 86, 94 forests trends in, 6-8, 11-14, 84-88, 93-118 acid rain damage in, 9, 22, 24, 29-30, Enfant de Partage organization (Senegal), 87, 100 164 ir. Africa, 178, 179, 181-84 Environmental Defense Fund, 58, 125 clearing of, 9, 22-27, 30-31 Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. conversion to grasslands of, 69-72 (EPA), 100, 125 plantations, 182-83, 184 Ethiopia sustainability of, 23-25 ecological deterioration in, 22-23, 28-29 see also deforestation; reforestation; military spending in, 199 individual countries soil conservation in, 185 Forest Service, U.S. rangeland managed Europe by, 66 coal use in, 87-88 France cogeneration use in, 109 armaments trade by, 198 dismantlement of reactors in, 122-23 cogeneration use in, 109 electricity in, 101, 102, 107-08 decommissioning nuclear reactors in, energy subsidies in, 95 121, 123, 131, 134 grain track by, 16 electricity use in, 101, 103, 108 nuclear power use in, 88, 100 fuel reprocessing in, 124 nuclear waste disposal in, 124 grain production in, 16 oil use by, 11, 13, 82-84 nuclear plants in, 99, 101 pollution controls in, 99-100 nuclear waste disposal in, 125 see also Eastern Europe; Western Europe; oil imports by, 82 individual countries in European utilities in, 103, 134 Economic Community, pollution French Atomic Energy Commission, 131 controls Sy, 99 Frost and Sullivan market research company, 110 family planning fuelwood, use in Third World, 11, 23-24, in Africa, 177-81 28-29, 76, 88, 147, 181-83, 190 child health and, 159, 16i, 172-73 Future Water, 52 in Egypt, 180 infant mortality and, 171-72 Gambia, The, primary health care in, 166, policy options for, 173-74, 179 167 FAO, see United Nations, Food and Garcia Perez, Alan, 206, 208 Agriculture Organization Geller, Howard, 105 Farm Credit System, 206-07 General Electric Company, cogeneration Federal Energy Regulatoiy Commission, use by, 109 U.S., 110, 114 geothermal energy, 99, 112 fertilizer Ghana, ecological deterioration in, 31 use of, 10, 28, 30, 189 Global Water, Inc., 167 wastewater as, 52 Goliber, Thomas, 179 Finland Gorbachev, Mikhail, 4, 19, 201

269 ;3.

(256) Index Gorse, Jean, 39, 73, 190 armaments trade by, 195 grain child health in, 163 consumption of, 14-15, 17, 21, 177 fuelwood shortages in, 29 production trends, 14-17, 18, 19, 27 -f'', grain production in, 14, 21 32-34, 169-70, 177, 188-90 grazing in, 65-66, 67, 75-76 trade in, 14-15, 16-17, 198 irrigation in, 44 grasslands oil imports by, 82 in Africa, 178, 179 tobacco production in, 140, 147, 157 animal species grazing on, 63-64 infant mortality pressures on, 9, 25-26 in developing countries, 20, 159-61 productivity of, 63-64 drinking water and, 167 see also rangelands prevention of, 165-66 grazing trends in, 160, 161-62, 167 in Africa, 62, 64, 67, 68-69, 73, 75, 183 Institute for International Economics, 207 ecological effects of, 69-70 International Atomic Energy Agency intovative strategies for, 75-77 and decommissioning planning, 136 and rangeland management, 62, 63-64 and nuclear waste disposal, 126 see also grasslands; livestock; rat viands International Cogeneration Society, 109 Greece International Council for Research in energy intensity of economic activity in, Agroforestry, 187 84 International Energy Agency, 84, 97, 103, passive smoking study in, 148 105 tobacco use in, 140 International Family Planning Assistance, groundwater 173 contamination of, 48, 52-53 International Fund for Agriculture in irrigation, 44 Development (IFAD), 170, 193 salt in, 48 International Institute for Tropical withdrawals from, 59 Agriculture (IITA), 186, 187, 188 see also aquifers International Livestock Center for Africa Groundwater Management Act of 1980 (ILCA), 67, 75, 191 (Arizona), 59-60 International Monetary Fund energy pricing recommendations by, 84, Hanford nuclear reservation, 122 97 Hach Mahbub ul, 197 Third World debt and, 7-8, 209-10 Harris, Nancy, 173 International Rice Research Institute Hartmans, Ermond, 187 (IRRI), 59 Hatcliffe Research Station (Zimbabwe), 30 International Union of Biological Sciences, Hawaii Electric Company, 113, 114 186 Hawker Siddely Power Engineering, 109 Investor Responsibility Research Center, Hawthorne Energy Systetils of California, 105 110 Iran Hecht, Susanna, 70 armaments trade by, 198 Hightower, Jim, 61 grain production in, 28 Hood River project, 107 military spending by, 28, 197 Hoperaft, David, 77 oil production by, 82 Houston Lighting and Power, 110 Iraq Hungary, tobacco use in, 153-54 armaments made by, 198 Hunt, W.A., 143 grain production in, 28 hydropower military spending by, 28, 197 ecological deterioration's effecton, 31 oil production by, 82 as oil substitute, 11 irrigation use of, 31, 83, 88, 99, 112 economic costs of, 44, 46, 47 efficient use of, 41-45 Imperial Irrigation District (California), 58 in the Third World, 43-48, 189 India trends in, 42-43 270 Index see also individual countries oil production by, 81-82 Israel Lichtblau, John, 92 agricultural productivity in, 32-34 Lissakeri, Karin, 6 armaments trade by, 198 livestock, 63-64, 68, 70-77 military spending by, 197 in Africa, 25, 26, 31, 67, i91 water conservation in, 50, 51-52, 60 in agroforestry, 183 Italy consumption of, 62 armaments trade by, 198 and ecological deterioration, 15, 23-.25, cogeneration use in, 109 31, 37 tobacco use in, 149 production of, 65-67, 68, 69, 70-72, Ivory Coast, ecological deterioration in, 31 73-74, 75 see also cattle; grasslands; grazing Japan London Dumping Conventiot127 agricultural policy in, 32 I twins, Amory, 105 electricity prices in, 101 electricity use in, 102, 104 Mabbutt, Jack, 72 energy efficiency in, 97, 108 Malawai, tobacco production in, 140, 147 energy intensity of economic activity in, malnutrition 84 in Africa, 177 and international trade, 5, 202-04 and child health, 159, 161-62, 169 legislation on nuclear power, 126 drinking water and, 168 military spending by, 4, 197, 200, Mao Zedong, 19 202-03 Martin, James, 125 nuclear waste disposal in, 124, 128 Maser, Chris, 74 oil use in, 11, 79, 82 Matarazzo, J.D., 143 passive smoking study in, 148 May, Clifford, 199 tobacco use in, 140 McKennell, A.C., 143 Jones. William, 34 Mellendorf, Loren, 58 Jordan Metropolitan Water District (California), 58 armaments trade by, 198 Mexico military spending by, 197 external debt of, 6, 20, 82, 204-05 Kalimantan (Indonesia), 31 geothermal energy use in, 112 Kandel, Robert, 39 irrigation in, 57 Kenya military spending by, 197 grazing strategies in, 77 oil in, 80, 89, 91, 93 soil conservation in, 185 water reuse in, 51 tobacco production in, 147 Michigan, water use in, 52 Kountche, President (Niger), 173 Middle East Kuwait, oil production by, 81, 82, 91 ecological deterioration in, 34 grain production in, 15, 34 Lal, Rattan, 186 groundwater in, 48 Latin America militarization of, 34, 197 beef exports by, 69-72 oil discoveries in, 89-90 deforestation in, 70-72 oil exports by, C.9, 82 grain production in, 15, 34 oil reserves in, 78, 89-90, 93 grazing in, 62, 69-70 migration, and ecological deterioration, 35, military spending in, 197 36-37, 183 pastoralism in, 67 militarization water conservation in, 53, 56 economic costs of, 3-5, 196-99, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, 115 199 - 204,210 -11 Lebanon, grain production i.t, 32 as national security policy, 3-4, 195, Lewis, Flora, 193 196-99 Libya policy options for, 195, 196-99 armaments trade by, 198 and political ideology, 196-99 271 (258) Index

militarization (continued) Norway scientific research priorities, distortions antismoking campaigns in, 152, 153 of, 199 electricity use in, 107 of world economy, 196-99 oil production by, 80, 91 military spending tobacco use in, 141, 142, 153 in China, 5, 19, 207-08 nuclear power in Iran, 28, 197 and electricity prices, 101 in Iraq, 28, 197 and electricity supply, 119 in Japan, 4, 197, 202-03 as oil substitute, 11, 87 in Latin America, 197 plant decommissioning, 119-38 reductions in, 207-08 use of, 83, 84, 88, 94, 100, 101, 107, in Soviet Union, 3, 4, 197, 201-02 120, 135-36 in U.S., 3, 5, 197, 200 wastes generated by, 123-28 and U.S. debt, 200-04 see also nuclear reactors worldwide, 196-99 nuclear reactors Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, 7 cancellations of, 98, 100, 101, 102 Morocco, external debt of, 205 CLAB, Sweden, 126 Myers, Norman, 70 Clinch River, Tennessee, 126 construction costs for, 129-30 National Academy of Sciences, 64 construction of, and "stipulation" laws, national security, see security 126 natural gas, 11, 87, 88, 94 cost overruns frr, in United States, Navarro, Peter, 103 129-30 Nehring, Richard, 89 decommissioning of, 119-38 3 Netherlands decontamination of, 121-22 antismoking campaigns ;n, 152, 154 design of, and decommissioning, 131-32 energy subsidies in, 95 Diablo Canyon, California, 117 4,% nuclear waste disposal in, 124, 127 dismantlement of, 120-21 tobacco use in, 141, 154 Elk River, Minnesota, 122 Nevada, nuclear waste disposal in, 125, fuel used in, 87, 124 127 G-2, Marcoule (France), 123 Newcombe, Kenneth, 22, 23, 24, 27 Humboldt Bay, California, 123, 134 New Zealand, tobacco use in, 145 life span of, 119-20 Nicaragua Niederaichbach (West Germany), 123 beef exports by, 71 reprocessing spent fuel for, 124 military spending by, 197 Shippingport, Pennsylv, nia, 122, 130 Nigeria Shoreham, New York, 130 external debt of, 7, 82 Surrey, Virginia, 132 grain production in, 28 Three Mile Island, 121, 123, 136 Nimeiry, President (Sudan), 36 Windscale (United Kingdom), 123 Norman, Colin, 199 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.), North America 120, 127, 128-29, 134 biomass energy use in, 111 Nuclear Waste Policy Act, 125 cattle boom in, 69 nuclear wastes coal use in, 87 compensation for storage of, 132 oil use in, 79 cost of disposal of, 128-29, 131 pollution controls in, 99-100 and decommissioning strategy, 136-38 North American Electric Reliability disposal of, 119, 120-22, 123-28 Council, 102 federal subsidy for disposal of, 130 North Atlantic Treaty Organization funds for disposal of, 133-35 (NATO) 197 half-life of, 121-22 North Sea, oil in, 13, 89, 91 low-level, 126-28 Northwest Conservation and Electric Power politics and disposal of, 124, 125-26 Plan, 107 repositories for, 124, 125, 127-28

272 (259) transportation of, 122, 124, 126, 127, pastoralism, 62, 64-69, 183, 190, 191 128 Pebley, Anne, 171 volume of, 126-27, 128 Peru external debt of, 206, 207 Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. military spending by, 208 (OTA), 74-75, 110, 114 petroleum, see oil Ogallala aquifer, overdraft of, 61 Philippines oil biomass energy in, 111-12 alternatives to, 78-79 geothermal energy use in, 112 discoveries of, 80, 82, 89-93 photovoltaics, 114 imports of, 11, 79, 82, 83, 84, 94 Poland, tobacco use in, 140, 153, 158 and militarization of Middle East, 197 policy options policy options and, 79, 81-82, 91 for Africa, 177-78, 179, 190-94 prices of, 6, 12-13, 78-79, 82-83, 84, for decommissioning nuclear reactors, 85, 93-96, 99 33-38 production of, 11, 12, 13, 79, 80, 81-83, and economic trends, 195-99 89, 90, 93, 110 for electricity, 115-18 reduced dependence on, 78, 79-84 energy efficiency and, 86 reserves of, 78, 79, 81, 88-93 energy use and, 94-97 taxes on, 96-97 family planning and, 173-74, 179 use of, 6, 11-12, 13, 78-80, 83, 87, 94 integrated approach to, 38-39 World Bank and, 83, 97 livestock production and, 68-69, 70-72, oral rehydration therapy (ORT), 163-64, 73-74 165, 166 militarization and, 195, 196-99 Oregon, energy efficiency in, 107 and national security, 195-211 Organisation for Economic Co-operation for nuclear waste disposal, 123-28 and Development (OECD), 84, 175, oil and, 79, 81-82, 91 100, 101 sustainability and, 195, 208-11 Organization of Petroleum Exporting for tobacco use control, 150-58 Countries (OPEC), 11, 79, 80-81, on water use, 57-61 83 pollution, air, 9, 22, 24, 29-30, 31, 87, 88, oil prices and, 81-82 98, 100 oil production by, 13-14, 81-82, 93 Population Crisis Committee, 174 oil reserves in, '3-14, 78, 93 Population Institute, study of Africa by, share of market by, 81-82, 93 180 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Great power plants, see nuclear reactors; utilities Britain), 82 primary education and infant mortality, 160 Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) in Third World, 173 "avoided cost" rates of, 117-18 of women, 161-62 and decommissioning nuclear reactor primary health care, 160, 161-67 funding, 134 Princeton Center for Energy and promotion of efficiency by, 106 Environmental Studies, 86 wind power and, 113 Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, U.S. PacifiCorp, 107 (PURPA) Pakistan California's implementation of, 115-16 renewable energy use in, 115 impact on utilities of, 108 tobacco production in, 147 Parsons Corporation, 58 radioactive waste, see nuclear wastes passive smoking Rand Corporation, 89, 129 health effects of, on nonsmokers, 139, rangelands 148-50, 151 area of, 63, 66 and mortality rates, 146 BLM-managed, 66, 74 and tobacco policy, 155-57 carrying capacity of 64, 73-74, 76

... . 273 (260) Index rangelands(continued) redefining of national, 195-211 conversion of, to cropland, 65, 69 and sustainability, 195, 208-11 deterioration of, 25, 27, 31, 62-63, threats to, 3, 4, 204-07 72-74, 76-77 Selassie, Haile, 199 ecology of, 63-64 Sen, Amartya, 69 livelihoods on, 64-65, 76-77 Sheaffer, John R., 52 management of, 62-77 Siegel, JJ., 134 regeneration of, 69, 74-77 Silva Herzog, Jesus, 6 sustainability of, 76-77 small-scale power projects, 99, 108-18 see alsograsslands; grazing; livestock smoking Rangeley, W.R., 59 campaigns against, 139-42, 150-58 Ravenholt, R.T., 149-150 economic cos. of, 146-48 Reagan, Ronald, 90, 95 and educational level, 142-43 reforestation, 9 and health policy, 146-47 in Africa, 20-21, 181-84 health risks of, 139-41, 143-50, 151 and tillage practices, 47 mortality due to, 143, 144-46 renewable energy prevalence of, 21, 139, 140-43, 152-54 economic costs of, 11-12, 110-15 trends of, 141-45, 149-50 sources of, 99, 110-15 see alsocigarettes; passive smoking; subsidies for, 112 tobacco use of, 11-14, 31, 83, 87, 88, 94, 112 socialism see alsoalcohol fuel; geothermal energy; agriculture under, 17-19 hydropower; photovoltaics; solar and antismoking policy, 156-57 thermal power generation; wind and armaments manufacture, 202 power and militarization, 196-97 Residential Conservation Service, U.S., 105 Society for Range Management (U.S.), 63 Roberts, Lewis, 132 soil Rocky Mountain Institute, 105 conservation of, in Africa, 20-21, 178, Rodin, L.E., 63 184-87 Romania, oil reserves in, 83 erosion of, 9-10, 22-23, 25, 185-91 Rosenkid, Arthur, 115 restoration of, 184-87 Royal College of Physicians, U.K., 154 see alsoindividual countries Rural Electrification Administration, U.S., Soil Conservation Research Project 99 (Ethiopia), 185 solar thermal power generation, 114 Sahel South Africa ecological deterioration in, 25, 73 grain yields in, 189 grazing in, 63, 64, 68-69,73 rangeland deterioration in, 74 see alsoAfrica renewable energy in, 11 Sa las, Henry J., 53 South Carolina, nuclear waste disposal in, Sandford, Stephen, 73 127, 128 sanitation South Korea in the Third World, 167-69, 170 energy use in, 83 urban need for, 53, 56-57 reforestation in, 9 Saudi Arabia Soviet Institute of Geography, 61 agricultural productivity in, 32-34 Soviet Union armaments trade by, 198 agriculture in, 16, 17-19, 60-61 military spending by, 197 antismoking policies in, 153, 154-55, and oil prices, 82, 91 156 Schultz, Theodore, 174 armaments trade by, 198 security energy efficiency in, 96, 105 and economic trends, 195-99 hydropower in, 13 and militarization, 195, 196-99 militarization of, 3, 4, 196-97, 201-02 policy options for, 195-211 natural gas use in, 88

274 Index (261) nuclear industry in, 100-01, 125, 135 cogeneration use in, 109-10 oil exports by, 83 "conservation power plant" in Austin, oil imports by, 94 106 oil production by, 11, 1',80, 91, 93 electricity use in, 115 tobacco production in, 1,,3 nuclear waste disposal in, 125-26 tobacco use in, 21, 142, 154, 156 water policy in, 61 water use in, 50, 60-61 Thieffry, Jean-Hubert, 164, 'A; Spears, John, 182 Third World Speidel, Joseph, 174 agriculture in, 169-71, 174 Sri Lanka armaments trade by, 197-98 debts in, 19, 20 child health in, 159-67, 174-76 irrigation in, 44 ecological deterioration in, 8-11, 22-24, Stern, Ernest, 188 25-29, 30-31, 35-39 Stevens, Leonard A., 52 energy subsidies in, 96, 108 Stewart, B.A., 46 energy use in, 13, 31, 83-84, 86-88, 94, "stipulation" laws, regarding nuclear 103-04, 112 reactors, 126 external debt of, 5-8, 19-21, 195, Stocking, Michael, 185 204-11 Strategic Defense Initiative, 199 food deficits in, 15-16, 17, 36-38, Sudan 177-78 ecological deterioration in, 24, 27-28 fuelwood use in, 11, 23-24, 28-29, 76, external debt of, 205-06 88, 147, 181-83, 190 government takeover in, 35-36 irrigation in, 43-48 grain production in, 27 malnutrition in, 31-32, 168-70 Surl'Frederick, 17 militarization of, t, 196-99 Sweden nuclear industry in, 101, 134 antismoking campaigns in, 152, 153 oil in, 80, 83-84, 92 biomass energy use in, 1 1 1 pastoralism in, 62, 64, 65-66, 67-69, decommissioning nuclear reactor funding 75-77, 183 in, 134-35 primary education in, 173 electricity in, 103, 108 primary health care in, 161-67 nuclear power in, 101 rangelands in, 65-66, 67-69, 74-75, nuclear waste disposal in, 125, 126, 128 76-77 tobacco use in, 142, 150, 153 renewable energy in, 11-12, 13, 31, 79, water recycling in, 50 83, 86, 88, 112 Swedish International Development sanitation in, 56-57, 167-69, 170 Authority, 185 and 7ustainability, 208-09 Switzerland tobacco in, 140, 141, 142, 147, 153-54 decommissioning nuclear reactors in, trade deficits in, 7 129, 135 water use or policies hi, 41, 43-45, 51, electricity use in, 107 53, 56-57, 58-59, 60-61 legislation on nuclear power in, 126 women's status in, 170, 173, 174 nuclear waste disposal in, 127 World Bank and, 83, 84 tobacco use in, 146 see also individual countriPs Syria Thomas, R.K., 143 armaments trade by, 198 Three Mile Island, 121, 123, 126, 136 grazing in, 76 tillage practices, 46-47, 178, 185-87 military spending by, 197 Timberlake, Lloyd, 68 tobacco Taiwan, 32 addiction to, 143-44, 156-57 Tanzania, tobacco production in, 147 control policy lb.140, 150-54 Taylor, Terry, 18 economic costs ot, use, 143-48 Tennessee, nuclear waste storage in, 126 health risks of, i39-40, 142, 143-48, Texas, 106 149-50

275 (262) Index tobacco (continued) ecological deterioration in, 73-74 mortality due to, 143, 144-46 electricity use in, 101-02, 104, 108 policy options for control of, 150-58 energy intensity of economic activity in, production of, 140 84 smokeless, 142 energy subsidies in, 95 subsidies of, 139-40, i56-57, l';) farm debt in, 3-4 use of, 139-41, 152-54 irrigation in, 42-43, 46 see also cigamit-s; passive smoking; livestock in, 15, 66-67 smoking militarization of, 3, 5, 196-97, 200 Tokyo Electric Company, 108 nuclear power in, 84, 100, 101, 107, trade 120, 135-36 in armaments, 196, 197, 198, 199, 202 nuclear waste in, 123, 125, 126, 127-28, deficits in, 7, 11-14. 200-01 131 international, 4-5, 21, 124, 140, 197-99, oil imports by, 11, 82, 94 199-204, 206 oil production by, 13, 80, 93 Trussell, James, 171 oil use in, 11, 13 Tunisia, 36 power plant cancellations in, 98, 100, 102 United Kingdom rangelands in, 65, 66-61, 73-74 antismoking campaigns in, 152, 154 renewable energy use in, 111, 112-15 armaments trade by, 198 small-scale power plants in, 99, 106-11, decommissioning nuclear reactors in, 112, 113-18 123 tobacco use in, 21, 139, 140-41, 142-43, electricity use in, 101, 107 144, 146-47, 152, 158 nuclear industry in, 124, 125, 127, 131 water conservation strategies in, 53, oil production by, 80, 91, 93 54-55 renewable energy in, 115 water policy in, 40, 57, 58-61 tobacco use in, 141, 142, 144, 146, 150, water recycling in, 49, 50 154 water reuse in, 51, 52-53 United Nations see also North America Children's Fund (UNICEF), 163-64, USAID, see Agency for International 167-68 Development, U.S. Conference on World Population, 179 USDA, see Department of Agriculture, U.S. Ecunomic Commission for Africa, 192 U.S. Geological Survey, 90, 112 Economic and Social Council, 177 U.S. government agencies, see individual Environment Programme (UNEP), 26 agencies Food Lnd Agriculture Organization U.S. National Research Council, 184 (FAO), 23, 25, 169, 181-82, 191, utilities 193 "avoided cost" policy and, 116, 117 Fund for Population Activities, 179, 193 debt of, 98, 101 population projections by, 39 and decommissioning nucleat reactors, University (UNU), 185 133-38 see also World Health Organization deregulation of, 99 United States efficiency promotion by, 105-08 agriculture in, 43, 46, 48 forecasting by, 103 armaments trade by, 198 institutional changes in, 98-99, 115-18 beef consumption in, 70, 71 pollution control and, 99-100 beef production in, 66-67 subsidies to, 98-99 coal use in, 84 surplus capacity of, 102 cogeneration use in, 108, 109 see also electricit,; nuclear reactors debt accumulated by, 4, 8, 200-01 decommissioning nuclear reactors in, Van Arsdall, Roy, 67 120, 121, 130, 135-36 Venezuela, oil exports by, 82 deficits in, 3, 5-6, 200-01 Vermont, use of biomass e n e r f p / in, 1 1 I

276 Index (263) Virginia, 131 decommissioning nuclear reactors in, Voisin, Andre, 75 121, 123, 135 electricity in, 101, 108 Warsaw Pact, 197 legislation on nuclear power in, 126 Washington Public Power Supply System, nuclear waste disposal by, 124, 125 133 oil imports by, 82 Washington state pollution in, 30 electric utilities in, 107, 133 water conservation strategies in, 54 nuclear waste disposal in, 125-26, 127 West, Tam David, 81 water WHO,seeWorld Health Organization conservation strategies for, 42-46, 53-61 wind power, 99, 112-13 cropping systems and, 47-48 Winrock International (U.S.), 64, 73 drinking, 53, 167-71 women, status of, 170, 173, 174 efficient use of, 40-61 World Bank, 22-24, 34-35, 39, 44, 83, 88, mismanagement c5nsequences, 57, 180, 186, 187 58-60 and debt repayment, 206, 209-10 recyclzug of, 48-50 economic assistance for Africa by, 178, reuse of, 48-49, 50-53 179, 182-83, 184, 192, 193 supplies of, 10-11, 40, 41, 43-45, 47-48 loans for electricity projects by, 103 tillage practices and, 186 oil pricing recommendations of, 97 withdrawals of, 41, 43-44, 50 World Fertility Survey, 172 World Bank and, 44 World Health Organization (WHO) see alsoindividual countries breast-feeding campaign by, 163, 167 Weber, Fred, 184 infant mortality goal of, 160, 161 Wesson, Robert, 210 and smoking, 157 West African Microbiological Resources Center (Senegal), 184 Yugoslavia, tuoacco use in, 140 Western Europe energy intensity of economic activity in, Zaire 84 tobacco use in, 154 oil imports by, 94 Zimbabwe oil use in, 13, 79 family planning program in, 179-80, tobacco use in, 141 181 West Germany food price policies in, 190 armaments trade by, 198 sanitation projects in, 169 cogeneration use in, 109 tobacco production in, 140, 147

277 Economic deficits may dominate our headlines, but ecologiaddefidts will dominate our future. Of the 122 billion cubic meters pumped from the U.S. groundwater supply each year 26 billionone-fifth---are nonrenewable. Higher energy prices have caused a virtual' revolution in the development of energy-ef&ient technologies. Much of the nuclear decommissioning bill may fall due in a single decadefrom 2000 to 2010. Almost one-fifth of all U.S. deaths can be traced to cigarette smoke. For about $4 billion per year, the world could provide family planning to all who want it. Global military expenditures in 1985 of $940 billion exceeded the income of ihe poorest half of humanity. "The collective actions of a world population approaching 5 billion now appear capable of causing continental and even global changes in natural systems," writes Worldwatch Institute President Lester R. Brown. "Our security and well-being may be threat red less by the conflicts ma.: nations than by tie deteriorating relationship between ourselves and the natural systems and resources that sustain us." State of the World 1986 reveals economic and ecological threats to security that military forces are ill equipped to confront. The report is the third in an animal series from Waltham's assessing worldwide progress toward achieving a sustainable society. A natural outgrowth of the Institute's ongoing mean*, the book is publishid in response to a growing demand for policy-oriented binary analysis. The 1986 report emphasizes the economic, social, and political consequences of ecological deterioration; proposes a resource-based development agenda for Africa; highlights innovations in water use and electricity policy; and calls for strategies to banish tobacco and enhance child survival. Of State of the World 1985, the Los Angeles Times wrote: "No one can read it and ignore the warning signs for mankind."

COM DESIGN BY MIKE %MYER

Norton W W NORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON

27R FP,ISBN 0-393-30255-5»419.95