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Offshore Wind Power and the Challenges of Large

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Offshore Wind Power and the Challenges of Large Offshore Wind Walt Musial Power and the Manager Offshore Wind Challenges of and Ocean Power Systems Large Scale National Renewable Energy Laboratory Deployment Inaugural Meeting of the North American Wind Energy Academy August 7th - 9th, 2012 Photo: Baltic I – Wind Plant University of Massachusetts Amherst Germany 2010 Credit: Fort Felker William E. Heronemus University of Massachusetts Circa 1973 UMass has Pioneered Offshore Wind Energy • 51 projects, 3,620 MW installed (end of 2011) • 49 in shallow water <30m • 2-5 MW upwind rotor configuration (3.8 MW ave) • 80+ meter towers on monopoles Vestas 2.0 MW Turbine Horns Rev, DK • Modular geared drivetrains • Marine technologies for at sea operation. • Submarine cable technology • Oil and gas experience essential • Capacity Factors 40% or more • Higher Cost and O&M have contributed to project risk. Alpha Ventus – RePower Siemens 2.0 MW Turbines 5-MW Turbine Middlegrunden, DK Offshore Wind Power 3 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Wind Projects Cumulative And Annual Installation; The U.K. And Denmark Account For Nearly 75% Of Capacity 1,600 4,000 1,400 3,500 1,200 3,000 (MW) (MW) 1,000 2,500 Capacity Capacity 800 2,000 Installed Installed 600 1,500 Annual Cumulative 400 1,000 200 500 ‐ ‐ 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Offshore Wind Power 4 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Wind Projects Installed, Under Construction, and Approved 30 25,585 MW 25 20 (GW) 15 Capacity 10 3,500 MW 5 3,620 MW 0 Installed Under Construction Approved Offshore Wind Turbine Market Is Becoming Increasingly Diversified Fuji Heavy Shanghai Electric Areva GE Enercon 1% 0% 0% 1% WinWind 1% BARD Goldwind China Energine 2% 0% 0% Iberdrola 3% Mingyang Nordex vel 3% 0% 0% Goldwind % Repower 2% 6% BARD 11% Projected Siemens Installed Capacity Siemens Near-Term Capacity* 44% ~3,620 MW 48% Areva 15% Vestas 39% Sinovel 5% Vestas Repower 10% 6% * Includes projects under construction and approved projects that have announced a turbine manufacturer 6 Installed capital costs have increased substantially from 2005 levels Weighted-average cost of planned offshore wind projects = $4,862/kW Offshore Wind Cost of Energy Reduction Scale of Global Deployment Risk Reduction Technology Innovation • Learning Curve • Permitting • Turbine Optimization • Volume Production • Construction Delays • Balance of Station • Supply Chain Maturity • Ops – Reliability & Production • Offshore Grid • Deployment and Field • Financial and Market • Array optimization Experience Uncertainty • Integration Initial Cost Scale Risk Mature Technology Market Cost Present Year Time Installed capital costs for offshore wind turbines Turbines account for only 32% of ICC 9 Larger scale is needed to achieve lower offshore wind cost Larger Turbine Sizes Large Scale Increased Wind Deployment Plant Sizes National deployment targets in the E.U., U.S., and China call for ~86 GW of offshore wind to be installed by 2020 100 90 30.0 86.3 China 80 70 USA 60 10.0 (MW) EU 50 18.0 46.3 40 Capacity 30 10.0 20 6.0 5.2 10 3.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0 Offshore Wind Power 11 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Wind Technology is Depth Dependent Offshore Wind Power 12 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Near-term offshore wind projects will be installed in deeper waters and further from shore Near-shore Far-shore (DC power export technology becomes competitive) 220 hi 210 Deep Water 200 60 (m) 50 Depth Transitional Water 40 30 20 Shallow Water 10 0 0 204 06 08 01 0012 0 Distance to Shore (km) ‐10 Installed Under Approved Project Construction Project Bubble size represents project capacity Offshore Wind Power 13 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Near-term offshore wind projects will be installed in deeper waters and further from shore Near-shore Far-shore (DC power export technology becomes competitive) 220 hi 210 Deep Water 200 60 (m) 50 Depth Transitional Water 40 30 20 Shallow Water 10 0 0 204 06 08 01 0012 0 Distance to Shore (km) ‐10 Installed Under Approved Project Construction Project Bubble size represents project capacity Offshore Wind Power 14 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Near-term offshore wind projects will be installed in deeper waters and further from shore Near-shore Far-shore (DC power export technology becomes competitive) 220 hi 210 Deep Water 200 60 (m) 50 Depth Transitional Water 40 30 20 Shallow Water 10 Cape Wind 0 0 204 06 08 01 0012 0 Distance to Shore (km) ‐10 Installed Under Approved Project Construction Project Bubble size represents project capacity Offshore Wind Power 15 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Near-term offshore wind projects will be installed in deeper waters and further from shore Near-shore Far-shore (DC power export technology becomes competitive) 220 Floating Technology Demonstration Projects hi 210 Deep Water 200 60 (m) 50 Depth Transitional Water 40 30 20 Shallow Water 10 Cape Wind 0 0 204 06 08 01 0012 0 Distance to Shore (km) ‐10 Installed Under Approved Project Construction Project Bubble size represents project capacity Offshore Wind Power 16 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Common Foundation Types Used in Shallow Water (0-30m depths) Monopiles Gravity Base 73% of Current Installations 21% of Current Installations Offshore Wind Power 17 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Cape Wind 468-MW Wind Plant - Massachusetts Location: Nantucket Sound, MA Turbine Size/Description: 130 Siemens 3.6 MW wind turbines Expected Deployment 2013 Date : Foundation Type: Monopiles Average distance from 9.5 miles shore Average Water Depth 11-m Expected Energy 1.5 Billion KWh/yr production Approximate Budget: $ 2.6 B USD The Cape Wind project is the first and only offshore wind project to receive a license to begin construction in U.S. federal waters The project will produce 75% of the electricity for Cape Cod and the Islands. Transitional Water Depths Need Multi-pile Support Structures (30-60m) Tripod Type Jacket or Truss Type Offshore Wind Power 19 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Multi-pile foundation designs are gaining market share as larger turbines are installed in deeper water 5.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 28.9% 20.9% Installed Capacity Projected ~3,620 MW Near-Term Capacity* ~10,070 MW 58.0% 12.8% 72.7% Gravity bases are not represented in the near-term plans of developers * Includes projects under construction and approved projects that have announced a foundation design 20 Turbine Scaling Trend Based on Current Installations: Generator size, rotor diameter, and hub height are increasing 10.0 130 Weighted Average Capacity (right axis) 9.0 Individual Project Capacity (left axis) Weighted Average Rotor Diameter (right axis) 110 8.0 Weighted Average Hub Height (right axis) 90 (m) 7.0 Height 6.0 70 (MW) Hub 5.0 and 50 Capacity 4.0 Diameter Rated 3.0 30 Rotor 2.0 10 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.9 0.0 (10) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Offshore Wind Power 21 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Turbines Sizes are Expected To Continue To Grow Source : Jos Beurskens - ECN Netherlands Offshore Wind Power 22 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Large Offshore Turbine Technology (5-10 MW) Challenges • Mass scaling laws limit conventional designs • Installation vessel capacity limits design options • Composite technology for large machines is unproven Enabling technologies for large machines • Ultra-long blades/rotors • Downwind rotors • Direct drive-generators (possible HTSC) • High reliability integrated systems • Innovative deployment systems • Special purpose vessels Offshore Wind Power 23 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Blade Scaling Critical for Large Turbines The need for larger blades is driving advanced material, manufacturing, and design innovations Commercial Wind Turbine Blade Weights 50,000 Historic trend y = 1.5336x2.3183 OfO Onshore 40,000 f fshore Bladesfsho 30,000 re Blades Blad Quadratic Scaling Can this be achieved? 20,000 es 10,000 Approx Blade Weight (kg) Weight Blade Approx 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Blade Length (meters) Offshore Wind Power 24 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Trend Toward Direct Drive Generators Goldwind Graphic: Courtesy of American Superconductor • Conventional gear driven turbines offered lightest and lowest cost but have had suffered high maintenance costs • Direct drive generators (DDG) promise higher reliability due to fewer moving parts • New designs promise lighter weight • Most OEMs are developing 5-7MW class DDGs wind turbine (or medium speed) Siemens Wind Power Offshore Wind Power 25 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Electric Grid and System Integration Challenges • 54-GW by 2030 of Offshore Wind • Constrained land-based grid in high population density coastal regions • Variable power delivery and establishing capacity value • Up to 80% of Offshore Insurance claims New Offshore Grid Technologies • Offshore backbones for power delivery • HVDC for long distance power Proposed Super-grid for European Offshore Wind • Aggregate offshore wind plants • Cable protocols HVDC Power Networks Credit: KEMA Baltic 1 Substation Offshore Wind Power 26 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Metocean Characterization Tools Challenges • High cost of MET masts has inhibited widespread metocean characterization • Marine boundary layer (wind shear, stability, and turbulence) is not well characterized • Resource assessments rely on sparse measurements for validation • External design conditions for turbines are not well understood Floating wind LIDAR; The Natural Power Sea ZephIR (from http://blog.lidarnews.com) New Technology for Metocean Characterization: • Remote sensing (LIDAR, SODAR) • Measurement campaigns for metocean conditions at hub height • Improved weather models • Integration of multiple data sources for validation (e.g.
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