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Downloaded from the Comparative Manifestos Project Database, the University of Laval’S Electronic Political Texts Database and the Parties’ Own Websites SEPARATIST PARTIES IN CENTRAL PARLIAMENTS by Clare McGovern M.A., The University of British Columbia, 2004 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Political Science) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) August 2015 © Clare McGovern, 2015 Abstract This dissertation examines separatist political parties who compete in central elections and sit in central legislatures, focusing on the Scottish National Party, the 19th-century Irish Parliamentary Party and the Bloc Québécois. These cases represent an intriguing paradox: politicians who engage with the very institutions they wish to leave, using the existing political system to make a case for exit. Contrary to previous scholarly work on anti-system parties, my findings suggest that separatists do not always attack the political system. Indeed, they sometimes participate actively in institutions, despite being fundamentally opposed to the current constitutional set-up. These parties vary their electoral and legislative behaviour over time, in response to the potential for self-government and the structure of electoral competition. When self-government is taken off the immediate political agenda (for example after a failed referendum) I find that parties get more involved in parliamentary activities at the statewide level, beginning to use the legislature as a platform for their region's grievances. When self- government is imminent, separatists only participate in parliament if they are pivotal and therefore able to bargain over the terms of self-government. In election campaigns, separatists do not always focus on their region's grievances and their desire for independence. Grieving occurred most frequently when the separatist party was competing with the government party, as it was in its electoral interest to paint a negative picture of the region's fortunes, blaming this on the electoral rival. However, when competing with the official opposition party, separatists campaigned as the region's champion in the central legislature, claiming credit for services that their region has received. In doing so, they tacitly supported the constitutional status quo, arguing that their region can prosper in the existing system. ii Preface This dissertation is original, unpublished, independent work by the author, Clare McGovern. iii Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................... ii Preface ..................................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ viii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................ xii Dedication ............................................................................................................................................. xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Why study separatist parties? .................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Separatist parties in the party politics literature ........................................................................ 6 1.3 An overview of the argument: the dilemmas facing separatist legislators ............................. 12 1.3.1 A framework for understanding the behaviour of individual legislators. ........................... 12 1.3.2 Applying the framework to separatist parties ..................................................................... 16 1.4 Testing the argument: cases and data ...................................................................................... 18 1.4.1 Country cases ...................................................................................................................... 19 1.4.2 Party cases ........................................................................................................................... 20 1.4.3 Data sources ........................................................................................................................ 22 1.5 Organization of the dissertation .............................................................................................. 24 Chapter 2: Theoretical framework ..................................................................................................... 26 2.1 Separatists in a central party system ....................................................................................... 26 2.1.1 Procedural focus .................................................................................................................. 27 2.1.2 Ideologically diverse vote base ........................................................................................... 28 iv 2.1.3 Limited resources ................................................................................................................ 29 2.2 The dilemmas of a separatist party ......................................................................................... 31 2.2.1 The choices open to separatist parties: electoral strategy ................................................... 32 2.2.2 The choices open to separatist parties: institutional participation ...................................... 35 2.3 Resolving separatist dilemmas: constitutional, electoral and legislative opportunities .......... 38 2.3.1 The potential for separation ................................................................................................ 38 2.3.2 Electoral competition with the governing party .................................................................. 39 2.3.3 Electoral competition with the opposition party ................................................................. 40 2.3.4 Pivotal status ....................................................................................................................... 41 2.4 Interaction of the independent variables ................................................................................. 44 2.4.1 The impact on campaign strategy. ...................................................................................... 46 2.4.2 The impact on legislative participation ............................................................................... 49 2.4.3 Threats to causal inference .................................................................................................. 52 2.5 Predictions: how separatists behave over time ....................................................................... 54 Chapter 3: Electoral rhetoric and the prospects for self-government ............................................. 56 3.1 Case selection and data analysis ............................................................................................. 58 3.1.1 Defining “reasonable prospect” of self-government: selecting election campaigns ........... 58 3.1.2 Measuring election rhetoric: the dependent variable .......................................................... 61 3.2 Results for scenario 1: a pivotal separatist party competing against the opposition ............... 63 3.2.1 Do candidates explain their strategic position to voters? .................................................... 66 3.2.2 Campaign messages: pro- or anti-system? .......................................................................... 70 3.2.3 How does the IPP use its pivotal status? ............................................................................. 72 3.3 Results from scenario 2: a pivotal separatist party competing against the government ......... 79 3.4 Results from scenario 3: a non-pivotal separatist party competing against the opposition .... 85 v 3.5 Results for scenario 4: a non-pivotal separatist party competing against the government ..... 92 3.5.1 The SNP in the Blair and Brown era ................................................................................... 92 3.5.2 The BQ in the Mulroney and Chrétien era. ......................................................................... 99 3.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 105 Chapter 4: How do separatist parties appeal to voters when self-government is off the agenda? ............................................................................................................................................................... 108 4.1 Case selection and data analysis ........................................................................................... 109 4.1.1 Selection of election campaigns ........................................................................................ 109 4.1.2 Measurement of electoral behaviour ................................................................................
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