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Co-Operative University, Sagaing Department of Statistics Master of Applied Statistics a Study on Smallholding Tea Production In CO-OPERATIVE UNIVERSITY, SAGAING DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MASTER OF APPLIED STATISTICS A STUDY ON SMALLHOLDING TEA PRODUCTION IN YWAR NGAN TOWNSHIP THAE SU WIN NOVEMBER, 2019 CO-OPERATIVE UNIVERSITY, SAGAING DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MASTER OF APPLIED STATISTICS A STUDY ON SMALLHOLDING TEA PRODUCTION IN YWAR NGAN TOWNSHIP THAE SU WIN 2MAS-9 NOVEMBER, 2019 A STUDY ON SMALLHOLDING TEA PRODUCTION IN YWAR NGAN TOWNSHIP This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of master of applied statistics (MAS) Supervised by: Submitted by: Daw Ei Ei Aye Ma Thae Su Win Associate Professor 2MAS-9 Department of Statistics Master of Applied Statistics Co-operative University, Sagaing Co-operative University, Sagaing ACCEPTANCE This is to certify that this paper entitled “A Study on Smallholding Tea Production in Ywar Ngan Township” submitted as a partial fulfillment towards the degree of Master of Applied Statistics has been accepted by Board of Examiners. BOARD OF EXAMINERS ---------------------------- (Chairman) Prof. Dr. Moe Moe Yee Rector Co-operative University, Sagaing --------------------------- ------------------------- (External Examiner) (External Examine) Prof. Daw Khin Aye Myint Prof. Dr. Kyaing Kyaing Thet Visiting Professor Head of Department of Statistics Co-operative University, Sagaing Monywa University of Economics --------------------------- -------------------------- (Examiner) (Examiner) Prof. Daw Khin San Kyi Associate Prof. Daw Yin Mon Thant Head of Department of Statistics Department of Statistics Co-operative University, Sagaing Co-operative University, Sagaing -------------------------- Supervisor Associate Prof. Daw Ei Ei Aye Department of Statistics Co-operative University, Sagaing NOVEMBER, 2019 CO-OPERATIVE UNIVERSITY, SAGAING DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MASTER OF APPLIED STATISTICS A STUDY ON SMALLHOLDING TEA PRODUCTION IN YWAR NGAN TOWNSHIP THAE SU WIN 2 MAS-9 ABSTRACT This paper presents the smallholders of tea farmer in Ywar Ngan Township. In 2019, sample survey was selected in three villages in Ywar Ngan Township by using cluster sampling method. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze factors affecting of tea production in Ywar Ngan Township. Three villages were collected by cluster sampling method from 125 villages of Ywar Ngan Township. They are 159 households in Yaechanepyin Village, 159 households in Myazayti Village and 100 households in Alaechaung Village, respectively. The purposes of this study are to study the current situation of tea farming in Ywar Ngan Township and to analyze of factors affecting the tea production in Ywar Ngan Township. From the survey, the male headed households in this township is higher than that Female. Concerning the educational status of household heads, most of the household heads are educated in primary education. The largest number of tea farmers own in 1-10 acres of tea plantation. Tea farmers want to expand their tea plantation acres from 1-5 acres in the next five years. Most of the tea farmers got organic certificates. Most of tea farmers produce pickled tea and green tea. There is still technical need for green tea production. Most of tea farmer want to get technical support, machine, transportation from government and other organizations. Among the fitted regression models, Model III was chosen as the best fitted or most suitable estimated model of the yield of tea. In the model III, t statistic and F statistic are significant and adjusted R2 indicates that 25.3% of the variation in the (log of) yield of tea is explained by the cultivation acres, family size, tea expenditure, green Tea price, extending between 5 years, lawnmower. Therefore, the government should focus on research, develop new verities and implement effective polices to support tea farmers. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Dr. Moe Moe Yee, Rector, Co- operative University, Sagaing, for her giving permission and instruction to write this thesis. I would like to express my grateful thanks to Professor Daw Khin Aye Myint, Visiting Professor, Head of Department (Retired), Department of Statistics, Co- operative University, Sagaing for her kind and generous support and technical assistance to finish this dissertation. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr. Kyaing Kyaing Thet, Professor and head, Department of Statistics, Monywa University of Economics for her valuable comments and suggestions on this study. I would like to express my highest thanks to Professor Daw Khin San Kyi, Head of Department of Statistics, Co-operative University, Sagaing, for her kindly encouragement for this paper. I would like to express my special thanks to my supervisor Associate Professor Daw Ei Ei Aye, Department of Statistics, Co-operative University, Sagaing for her invaluable guidance, advice and support in undertaking this paper. Furthermore, I would like to express my appreciation to Board of Examiners, Master of Applied Statistics program for verification of this paper. Finally, I am also glad to record my gratitude to my teacher, my parents, my family and my friends for their support and encouragement upon me through the preparation of my work. ii CONTENTS Page Abstract i Acknowledgements ii Content iii List of Tables vi List of Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Rationale of the Study 2 1.2 Objectives of the Study 4 1.3 Methods of Study 4 1.4 Scope and Limitation of the Study 5 1.5 Organization of the Study 5 Chapter 2 Literature Review 6 2.1 Theoretical Review 6 2.2 Empirical Review 18 Chapter 3 Historical Background 22 3.1 Historical background of Myanmar Tea 22 3.2 Historical background of Shane State 23 3.3 Historical background of Ywar Ngan Township 24 Chapter 4 Analysis of Smallholding Tea Production in Ywar 27 Ngan Township 4.1 Descriptive Analysis for Demographic and 27 Characteristics of Tea Farmers 4.2 Agricultural conditions and Land Tenure of Tea 30 Farmers in Ywar Ngan Township 4.3 Credit Association Borrowed by Tea Farmers 30 4.4 Main Reasons for Borrowing by Tea Farmers 31 4.5 Plans to Expand Tea Farms in the Next Five Years 32 4.6 Number of Acres to be Expand in the Next Five Years 32 4.7 Reasons not to Expand in the Next Five Years 33 iii 4.8 The Conditions of Wearing a Hat in the Tea Picking 33 4.9 Willingness to Wear Hat at Tea Picking 34 4.10 Use of Pesticide and Fertilizer 34 4.11 Conditions of Receiving Organic Certificate 35 4.12 Conditions of Pickled Tea and Green Tea Production 35 4.13 Conditions of Technical Requirements of Pickled Tea 36 and Green Tea 4.14 Cost of Technology Change of Pickled Tea and Green 36 Tea Production 4.15 Types of Difficulty of Tea Production 37 4.16 Difficulty of Production for Pickle Tea and Green Tea 37 4.17 In the Next Few Year, the Difficulty of Capital 38 Investment in Agricultural Production and Sales 4.18 The Difficulty of Insect and Virus in Agricultural 39 Production and Sales During the Next Few Years 4.19 The Difficulty of Packaging in Agricultural Production 39 Sales During the Next Few Years 4.20 The Difficulty of Water System in Agricultural 40 Production and Sales During the Next Few Years 4.21 The Difficulty of Labour in Agricultural Production 41 and Sales During the Next Few Years 4.22 The Difficulty of Agricultural Techniques in 41 Agricultural Production and Sales During the Next Few Years 4.23 The Difficulty of Tea Price in Agricultural Production 42 and Sales During the Next Few Years 4.24 Effect of Weather in Agricultural Production and Sales 43 During the Next Few Years 4.25 Need of Technical Support from Government and 43 Other Organizations 4.26 Need of Transportation from Government and Other 44 Organizations iv 4.27 Need of Water System from Government and Other 45 Organizations 4.28 Need of Money Supply from Government and Other 45 Organizations 4.29 Need of Machine from Government and Other 46 Organizations 4.30 Need of Electricity from Government and Other 46 Organizations 4.31 Need of Chemical from Government and Other 47 Organizations 4.32 Support and Not Support from MTA and NGO 48 4.33 Types of Supporting from MTA and NGO 48 4.34 Constraints of Tea Farmers in Ywar Ngan Township 49 4.35 Various Functional Forms of Regression Models 49 4.36 Multiple Linear Regression Model for the Yield of Tea 52 Chapter 5 Conclusion 57 5.1 Findings 57 5.2 Suggestions and Recommendation 59 5.3 Needs for further study 60 References Appendices v LIST OF LABLES Table No. Page Table (2.1) ANOVA Table for General Linear Regression Model 15 Table (4.1) Demographic Characteristics of Tea Farmer in Ywar Ngan 27 Township Table (4.2) Agricultural conditions and land Tenure of Tea Farmers in 30 Ywar Ngan Township Table (4.3) Credit Association Borrowed by Tea Farmers 31 Table (4.4) Main Reasons for Borrowing by Tea Farmers 31 Table (4.5) Plans to Expand Tea Farms over the Next Five Years 32 Table (4.6) Number of Acres to be Expand over the Next Five Years 32 Table (4.7) Reasons not to Expand in the Next Five Years 33 Table (4.8) The Conditions of Wearing a Hat in the Tea Picking 33 Table (4.9) Willingness to Wear Hat at Tea Picking 34 Table (4.10) Use of Pesticide and Fertilizer 34 Table (4.11) Conditions of Receiving Organic Certificate 35 Table (4.12) Conditions of Pickled Tea and Green Tea 35 Table (4.13) Conditions of Technical Requirements of Pickled Tea and 36 Green Tea Table (4.14) Cost of Technology Change of Pickle Tea and Green Tea 36 Production Table (4.15) Types of Difficulty of Tea Production 37 Table (4.16) The Difficulty of Production for Pickle Tea and Green Tea 38 Table (4.17) In the Next Few Year, the Difficulty of Capital Investment in 38 Agricultural Production and Sales Table (4.18) The Difficulty of Insect and Virus in Agricultural Production 39 and Sales During the Next Few Years Table (4.19) The Difficulty of Packaging in Agricultural Production Sales 40 During the Next Few Years Table (4.20) The Difficulty of Water System in Agricultural Production and 40 Sales During the Next Few Years vi Table No.
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