Processes of International Negotiation Network Perspectives 40/2014
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PIN•Points Processes of International Negotiation Network Perspectives 40/2014 Remembering Nelson Mandela The Ukraine crisis as a threat for the European negotiation web The South-China Sea: options for negotiations Winning at nuclear negotiations 2 PIN•Points 40/2014 EDITORIAL Nelson Mandela passed away on 5 successes. These simply do not exist to seize the opportunity and manage December 2013. This is the first PIN- in the Syrian conflict. This serves as a the process to achieve an agreement. Points to be released since his death reminder for anyone involved in what and therefore the first opportunity Bill Zartman calls the mediation craze One other element in which Syria dif- to take stock of Mandela’s legacy in in one of his two contributions in fers from the South African struggle terms of negotiation processes. South this PINPoints that having the chops is geopolitical developments, regional Africa’s transition from apartheid to an of a mediator will not be enough if interventions and larger regional inclusive democratic system remains the conditions of a conflict cannot be instability. As Anstey mentions, talks an astounding accomplishment and changed. While an understanding of partly became possible in South Af- an example for everyone studying mediation processes is growing and rica because of the end of the Cold conflict resolution and reconciliation. the training of mediators is becoming War and hence the disappearance With Mark Anstey’s contribution to normal, the old saying of carrots and of a major source of support for the this PINPoints, the PIN group salutes sticks should not be forgotten. ANC. At the moment we are seeing one of the greatest negotiation a revival of Cold War thinking and practitioners ever. May his memory Also mentioned by the Syrian partici- increased rivalry between the West serve as a reminder of what can be pants as differences to South Africa and especially Russia. This not only achieved through negotiations. were the pain of the struggle in Syria affects the Syrian conflict. In this is- and the crimes committed by the Syr- sue of PINPoints, for example, Paul On the day when news broke that ian regime. This seemed to suggest Meerts expresses concerns that the Mandela had passed away, the that the steps that Mandela needed Ukraine crisis is derailing the Euro- Clingendael Institute was using PIN to take to leave his hatred behind pean regime for cooperation. Mikhail knowledge and insights to train the were somehow smaller than those of Troitskiy discusses Sino–Russian National Coalition for Syrian Revolu- the Syrians. Although it is impossible cooperation, mostly as an alliance tionary and Opposition Forces (SOC) to say whether this is true or not, as of convenience against American in negotiations, with an eye on the it is very much a perception and in no domination. Anthony Wanis-St John, then upcoming peace talks in Gene- way measurable, it did offer a good who wrote a contribution to the PIN va. The training session was not just opportunity to discuss how reconcili- book Unfinished Business on the fail- for the peace talks, but was also to ation and recognizing the opponent ure of the previous round of nuclear show negotiation as a valid and use- as human and a viable negotiation negotiations between the 3/EU and ful political coordination mechanism partner is a tough and difficult, but Iran, looks at the previous causes of to limit internal tension and disagree- vital, choice. It is a path to be taken failure and assesses the differences ment. During an improvised session, and to remain on level-headedly, de- with the current round of talks. His is we discussed together (the members spite opposition and obstacles, often a hopeful contribution, but he warns of the SOC and trainers) what Man- from one’s own constituency. This that geopolitical manoeuvring, in- dela meant for the Syrian struggle leads to the other misconception that cluding the Syrian conflict, can cause and what lessons we could learn needed to be addressed. The Syrian a breakdown in talks. from the South African situation. participants had the impression that Mandela was leading a monolithic Guy Olivier Faure analyses a re- While showing their respect and and unified opposition, yet nothing gional conflictual situation when he admiration, the participants were was further from the truth. Staying describes the contested sovereignty also quick to emphasize that Syria’s the course of reconciliation was as of small island groups in the South situation is different from the South much a negotiation with his own sup- China Sea. There is no regime to African struggle. This is absolutely porters as it was with the apartheid make negotiations truly work, and the true. As Anstey mentions in his con- regime. This also shows the impact conflict could easily get out of hand, tribution, in South Africa there was that leaders have on these kinds of with global ramifications. Whether ripeness and a mutual hurting stale- processes. Although structural fac- this will actually happen partly de- mate – fundamental structural pre- tors have to align to make solutions pends on US power and willingness. conditions for possible negotiation possible, it is up to the negotiators The annexation of Crimea, which was www.pin-negotiation.orgwww.pin-negotiation.org 3 3 CONTENTS COLOPHON PINPoints Copyright 2014 PIN PINPoints is the biannual publication 4 PAUL MEERTS of the Processes of International WILL PUTIN’S STRATEGY ON UKRAINE DISINTEGRATE Negotiation Program (PIN). THE EUROPEAN NEGOTIATION WEB? PIN is a non-profit group of scholars 8 ANTHONY WANIS-ST JOHN and practitioners that encourages WINNING AT NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS and organizes research on a broad spectrum of topics related to 12 MARK ANSTEY international negotiation seen as MANDELA’S LEGACY OF NEGOTIATION a process. The PIN network includes more than 4,000 scholars and 18 GUY OLIVIER FAURE practitioners of international THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: OPTIONS FOR NEGOTIATION negotiation. The organization is presided over by a Steering Committee, 28 MIKHAIL TROITSKIY which organizes its many activities and THE SINO–RUSSIAN PIVOT AND AMERICAN POWER edits the PINPoints. 32 MORDECHAI (MOTI) MELAMUD PIN is a project of the Netherlands TO VERIFY OR NOT TO VERIFY: A MAJOR ISSUE IN Institute of International Relations THE DEVELOPMENT OF WMD ARMS CONTROL REGIMES ‘Clingendael’, a leading think tank and academy on international affairs, 42 I. WILLIAM ZARTMAN European integration and security THE MEDIATION CRAZE issues based in The Hague. 46 WILBUR PERLOT Issue editor: VISIT TO THE 26TH SESSION OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL Wilbur Perlot 48 RUDOLF SCHÜSSLER Editorial committee: FOCAL POINTS IN THEORY AND NEGOTIATION: PROSPECTUS Paul Meerts & Tim Masselink OF A CONFERENCE Language editing: 51 PAUL MEERTS Rebecca Solheim THE NETHERLANDS NEGOTIATION NETWORK (NNN) SYMPOSIUM ABOUT NEGOTIATING THE FUTURE Design and lay-out: Symon Maks - www.maksimaal.nl Contact The Netherlands Institute of Interna¬tional Relations ‘Clingendael’ Wilbur Perlot, PIN Coordinator Clingendael 7 2597 VH The Hague The Netherlands T +31 70 374 6681 E [email protected] W www.pin-negotiation.org 4 PIN•Points 40/2014 more or less supported by China, solutions. In climate change negotia- tember during a conference organ- and contested but also accepted by tions, the two degrees Celsius maxi- ized by PIN, CIRC and Clingendael. the US, is seen in the region as an mum temperature increase is such We hope to see you there, or at other indication of how the global theatre a focal point. The 38th parallel was events and training sessions. If you is changing. such a focal point in the Korean War. have any questions or comments, do The role, nature and understanding not hesitate to contact us through In PIN’s work and PINPoints maga- of focal points is the topic of the new [email protected]. zine, changes on the geopolitical level PIN book project that is described have been mentioned many times by Rudolf Schüssler in this edition of as causes of concern in undermin- PINPoints and that launches in Sep- STEERING COMMITTEE: ing negotiation processes, because of a lack of ripeness, especially for conflict negotiations and multilateral cooperation. In his second contribu- tion to this PINPoints, Bill Zartman F. O. HAMPSON O. F. M. ANSTEY M. FAURE G. O. offers a possible instrument to sup- ALBIN C. plement or even replace some of the deadlocked negotiation processes with dialogues. Another possibility lies within the introduction of focal points in negotiations. T. MASSELINK T. MEERTS P. PERLOT W. M. MELAMUD M. Focal points are elements that are in- troduced in negotiations to shape the remainder of the negotiations. They are not necessarily a solution, but they do determine the range of the ROSOUX V. SCHÜSSLER R. TROITSKIY M. ZARTMAN W. I PAUL MEERTS WILL PUTIN’S STRATEGY ON UKRAINE DISINTEGRATE THE EUROPEAN NEGOTIATION WEB? If negotiation is war by peaceful regime, is hardly adequate for pre- land before it was partitioned by the means, then the present situation in venting a power shift that would up- surrounding powers in 1939. Eastern and around Ukraine can be described set the European security structure Ukraine is divided over its prospects as negotiation by warlike means. The created after the Second World War for the future, although it seems to pressure on Ukraine by the Russian and the disintegration of the Soviet be in favour of a federal Ukrainian Federation is enormous and the Union. state in which autonomous republics threat to its security and survival pro- will have a high degree of self- vides the Russians inside and outside In order to understand the positions governance, while western Ukraine Ukraine with a very strong negotiat- of the parties, it might be useful to might go along with this provided ing position.