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ALBA MINERAL RESOURCES Plc (ALBA.L)* 15 June 2020

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ALBA MINERAL RESOURCES Plc (ALBA.L)* 15 June 2020 ALBA MINERAL RESOURCES plc (ALBA.L)* 15 June 2020 Market’s Gold Stampede Overlooks Alba’s Gold Production Potential? Over the last two months we have witnessed the share prices of many gold-focused AIM listed companies appreciate considerably as investors seek to profit from safe- BUY haven gold exposed stocks with capital appreciation prospects. One company, Alba has been overlooked. It holds a 90% interest in a key gold project at Clogau, in North Wales. Along with benefiting from exploration upside and an opportunity to add value TP: 0.56p by applying modern exploration techniques, Alba could be within 24 to 36 months of MARKET DATA: re-opening the mine which last produced in 1998, when gold traded at only 20% of its Name: Alba Mineral Resources plc current price. Ticker: ALBA.L Price: 0.08p In addition to Clogau, as we will examine in this research note, Alba has many other SII: 4142.1m projects holding potential to be ‘Company Makers’ across a range of commodities, Market Cap: £3.3m including those where a JORC resource could be delivered within the near term, and Sector: Resources one or more assets which could potentially be sold for a consideration comfortably Listing: AIM – London exceeding Alba’s current market cap. FINANCIALS: Key Project Points Cash: £0.2m (at 30/11/19) Last Placing: - 0.16p- £0.35m * At Clogau we believe the re-opening of an initial small-scale gold mining operation Nov ’19 + up to £1.05m BGO Facility could be accomplished within the next 24 to 36 months. Mining at Clogau will provide Last Results: 31/03/20 – Finals YE Nov ‘19 Alba with the opportunity to sell ‘Welsh’ branded gold at above spot prices. Last AGM: 28/04/20 * Along with exploration upside on the target rich Clogau licences, where 80,000 ounces of gold were historically mined, there is also potential to prove up a maiden ACTIVITIES: JORC resource within the near term. Exploration & development of mineral and oil projects, in UK, Greenland and Ireland. * Results from the pre-feasibility at BlueJay Mining’s Dundas Ilmenite deposit last year, which is along the coast to Alba’s Thule Black Sands (TBS) project, should KEY PROJECTS / ASSETS: -take discussions with strategic improve Alba management’s ability to pursue off Clogau (UK) – Gold - 90% investors and industrial groups. HHDL (UK) – Oil – 11.8% Amitsoq (Greenland) – Graphite – 90% * On the high-grade graphite project at Amitsoq, we look forward to completion of TBS (Greenland) – Ilmenite - 100% the next field season, the objective of which is to define a maiden JORC resource. DIRECTORS & MANAGEMENT: * A rebound in oil prices should improve the Group’s prospect of disposing its George Frangeskides (Exec Chairman) 11.765% Horse Hill stake to attain what could be a sizeable windfall, well over the Mike Nott (Non-Ex) current market cap. If Alba chooses to keep its stake it will benefit from cash flow Manuel Lamboley (Non-Ex) and advancement of the project as it scales up to a six well 3,500 bopd operation. Sarah Potter (HOF)# Feroz Sultan (Tech Dir)# Recommendation & Valuation Summary #Non-Board Directors As explained further in this note, we value the Group’s projects at a total of £23.2m, major contributors being Horse Hill (£11.1m), TBS (£6.2m), Clogau (£3.1m) and SHAREHOLDINGS: (>3%) Amitsoq (£2.3m). Victorian Gold Limited 4.6% Alba’s Horse Hill stake value is based on our estimated NPV for a long term oil production operation of 3,500 bopd, which comes to $236.7m (£189.4m) at the 100% project level, along with a 50% project to equity value for the Group’s 11.765% interest. An asset disposal at Horse Hill that achieves a value near our estimated £11.1m is more than three times Alba’s current market cap. TBS is based upon a comparison with the pre-feasibility study at Dundas, whilst Clogau’s value is *First Equity Limited acts as Broker determined by its gold exploration upside. Upside to our valuation could come from to Alba Mineral Resources Plc. defining a maiden JORC resource at both Amitsoq and Clogau. A £23.2m project value equates to 0.56p per share, representing a sizeable uplift from ANALYST/BROKER the current share price of around 0.08p (market cap £3.3m). Considering this valuation disparity and the many catalysts that could lift our valuation and share price higher, Jason Robertson +44 (0)20 7374 2212 such as the disposal of Horse Hill, maiden JORC resource at Amitsoq, news on plans to [email protected] re-open the Clogau mine or TBS off-take discussions, we recommend the shares as a ‘Buy’, with a Target Price of 0.56p. Clogau, Wales – Gold (90%) The project area covers 107 sq.km. and includes the historic Clogau-St David’s mine which has produced at least 80,000 ounces of gold and lies within the Dolgellau Gold Belt, from where 131,000 ounces of gold are believed to have been produced between the early 1800s and late 1990s. Clogau-St David’s was closed in 1998, in a much different gold price environment, when the yellow metal traded at only $300 per ounce. The Project was acquired in two stages, the first gave Alba an initial stake of 49% in late 2017 and then moving to 90% nine months later, for a total consideration of £1.115m. Alba has spent £550K since acquisition on mine rehabilitation and safety works, regional exploration, drilling and also advancing regulatory permissions (notably planning and environmental). Why Clogau? The licence includes several high priority gold targets and former gold workings. Gold in the area is typically found in exceptionally high-grade vein style mineralisation pockets, in which bonanza gold grades can range in the 10s to 100s of ounces per tonne. Alba’s licence contains a wealth of opportunities, with around at least 300 known gold occurrences, most of which are in the Dolgellau Gold Belt. This area has been underexplored in terms of using modern exploration methods and technology. Gold from this area is used to produce Welsh Gold jewellery. Gold from Clogau has been used for production of wedding bands for Royal Weddings dating back to Queen Victoria, including most recently for the weddings of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex. Welsh gold bullion can achieve a price significantly exceeding the gold spot price, due to its unique premium ‘Welsh’ branding. For example, ten lots of Clogau Gold nuggets and flakes mined between 1979 and 1981 were sold for £44K at auction by Roger Jones Co in Colwyn Bay in late 2017. This represented a value 21 times the prevailing spot price of gold for lots which weighed a total of 59.06 grams (2.083 ounces). Alba’s strategy is to understand more about the wider Dolgellau Gold Belt through the application of modern and systematic exploration methods such as geochemical and geophysical surveys, along with a programme of work to bring the mine back to full scale production. Fig 1: Clogau licence map (Source: Alba Mineral Resources plc). Alba Mineral Resources plc - FEL Broker Note 15 June 2020 2 Maiden Drilling at Clogau. In January 2020, Alba reported on results of a short drilling campaign within the Llechfraith mine area which involved drilling three holes over a total length of 158 metres. Alba believe this was the first ever exploration drilling campaign to be conducted on the Clogau-St David’s mine area in its history. Although the gold grades returned were low, with the best assays returning only 0.09 g/t over a one metre section, the drilling did establish the presence of gold-bearing structures at depths of up to 25 metres below the known historic mine workings, at level No.4. Such is the nature of the mineralisation that occurs in high-grade pods, a more extensive drilling programme could well produce much better results revealing the location of higher-grade zones. Fig 2: Llechfraith mine cross-section, illustrating three reported gold shoots and location of areas with reported visible gold (Source Alba Mineral Resources plc 28/01/20 RNS) Considerable Exploration Upside? Alba has successfully identified 10 significant gold anomalies from soil sampling located away from the mine. Of these the largest anomaly is a sizeable 2km in length (areas 1 and 10 on Fig 3), which is 4x the length of the strike extent covering the Clogau-St David’s Mine. Potential extensions to the existing footprint of the mine area have been identified, being the ‘Lowri’ and ‘Eryn’ Targets, which lie parallel to the Llechfraith adit and above historic workings respectively. Alba Mineral Resources plc - FEL Broker Note 15 June 2020 3 Fig 3: Clogau gold anomalies (Source: Alba Mineral Resources plc). Mine Re-Opening Work. Alba has also focused recently on an underground rehabilitation programme at Clogau, which is viewed as an essential precursor to mine re-opening. The presence of five connected mine areas at Clogau strongly emphasises the project’s brownfield nature and that the CapEx to bring the mine back into production should be considerably less than developing a virgin gold mine. Next Stages. Near-term work, which could take place within the next 12-months, could include; - Progress environmental work, which will be used within a formal planning permission application to re-open the mine. - Undertake a trenching programme over some of the regional gold targets identified from recent exploration work. - Explore and identify unexploited gold veins and shoots within the existing underground mine network.
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