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Outlook for Gas Markets

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Outlook for Gas Markets IEEJIEEJ:Published © 2015年 7in月 August 禁無断転載 2015 All rights reserved The 420th Forum on Research Work July 10, 2015 Outlook for Gas Markets The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Tetsuo Morikawa Manager, Gas Group, Fossil Fuels & Electric Power Industry Unit Natural gas demand in major consuming regions IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Monthly demand Year-on-Year Changes Taiwan OECD OECD Northeast Asia Americas Europe (Japan, China, South Korea, China Taiwan) South Korea Japan OECD Europe OECD Americas (Sources) IEA; China OGP; Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan ▌ Demand in 2014: ▌ OECD Americas 930 bcm (up 32 bcm or 4% year on year) OECD Europe 447 bcm (down 52 bcm or 10%) Northeast Asia 360 bcm (up15 bcm or 2%) ▌ While demand in Europe increased from early 2015, the sovereign debt risk resurfaced. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 1 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Monthly LNG imports in Asia and Europe Asia Europe MT MT Lithuania Malaysia Netherlands Singapore UK Thailand Turkey Spain India Portugal China Italy Taiwan Greece France South Korea Belgium Japan (Sources) Customs statistics in each country, IEA, etc. ▌ LNG imports: 180.10 MT in Asia (up 2.06 MT year on year), 32.44 MT in Europe (down 1.49 MT) ▌ LNG imports in Europe increased since late 2014. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 2 IEEJ © 2015 U.S.natural gas production ▌ ▌ In January 2015, shale gas output exceeded 50% of total natural gas output for output for 50% natural gasgasthe first of total outputexceeded time.2015, shale January In gas production Shale has been robust despite price fallsas productivity isimproving. Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 and Output prices May 2011 Non Sep 2011 gas Shale - Jan 2012 Hub Henry price shalegas May 2012 IEEJ:PublishedSep in August2012 2015 All rights reserved Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2013 Jan 2014 May 2014 Sep 2014 Jan 2015 Eagle Ford Haynesville Major shale gas play shalegas play Major Bakken (Source ) EIA Marcellus 3 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved LNG export projects in North America Mitsubishi, Chubu Electric, Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, INPEX, JGC JOGMEC U.S. INPEX, JGC ▌ Pacific Northwest LNG Mitsubishi 54 projects (350 MT) (JAPEX) ▌ Four export projects have won Aurora LNG (INPEXJGC) approval for exports to non-FTA LNG Canada countries and for the (Mitsubishi) construction of natural gas Cove Point LNG Planned to launch operation in 2017 Triton LNG Itochu Liquefaction tolling：Sumitomo liquefaction facilities, (52 (Idemitsu) Buyers: Tokyo Gas, Kansai Electric Marubeni MT/year) Mitsui ▌ Sabine Pass will launch Sumitomo Mitsui Sumitomo operation in late 2015 or early Tokyo Gas 2016. Cameron LNG Planned to launch operation in 2018 Sumitomo Equity: Mitsui, JLI (NYK, Mitsubishi) Liquefaction tolling: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, GDF Suez Buyers: Tokyo Electric, Toho Gas, Kansai Electric, Tohoku Electric Canada Freeport LNG Planned to launch operation in 2018 JGC LNG export projects in which ▌ 35 projects (390 MT) (Liquefaction tolling: Chubu Japanese firms are involved Electric, Osaka Gas, Toshiba) Mitsui Shale oil and gas (confirmed) ▌ Marubeni While 10 projects (about 120 Shale oil and gas Osaka Gas MT/year) have won approval for Coalbed methane JAPEX exports, only LNG Canada has Coalbed methane received approval for (Source) IEA and company websites construction. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 4 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Russia’s shift to Asia Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Exports Domestic Exports Confrontation supply Ukraine turmoil Shift to Asia (Source) JOGMEC (Source) Russian Energy Monthly ▌ Exports in 2014 totaled 193 Bcm, down 12% year on year. ▌ As supply to Europe is not likely to expand, Russia urgently needs to explore Asian markets. ▌ As well as pipeline gas supply to China, the expansion of LNG supply to other Asian countries including Japan is an issue. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 5 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Russian gas supply routes to Asia Power of Siberia (38bcm) Altai Pipeline (30bcm) (Source) Gazprom ▌ Russia signed a gas sales contract for 38 bcm/year (for Power of Siberia) in May 2014 and a memorandum of understanding for 30 bcm/year (for Altai Pipeline). ▌ The oil price plunge has cast a shadow on investment in Eastern Siberian gas fields development and in the Power of Siberia construction. ▌ Greater priority might be given to the Altai Pipeline project in which no upstream development is required. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 6 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Natural gas supply and demand in China Gas infrastructure development Domestic production and imports 30 Bcm 38 Bcm Domestic output Pipeline gas imports LNG imports (Source) JOGMEC (Source) China OGP ▌ Demand in 2014 totaled 183 Bcm (up 7% year on year). ▌ Pipeline gas imports posted remarkable growth (up 15% year on year). ▌ Lower LNG prices have not impacted on import increase to a significant extent. LNG import terminals’ operating rates remain low. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 7 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Spot and short-term LNG trade Spot and Short-term LNG Trade Volume Spot LNG Imports/Exports (2014) Share for spot and short- MT term contracts Exported cargoes Middle East Asia & Unknown: 16 Trinidad and Latin America Oceania: 35 Tobago: 72 North America Europe Other African countries: 30 Other Asian countries China Other Middle East countries:16 Americas (including Nigeria: 87 India reload): 6 Taiwan South Korea Other European Japan countries (including Share for spot and reload): 71 Qatar: 48 short-term contracts Norway: 26 Imported cargoes Argentina: 68 Unknown: 67 Middle East: 3 Brazil: 58 (Source) GIIGNL Other Asian countries: 39 Other American countries:15 ▌ 69.58 MT (of which Japan accounted for 37%) Europe: 13 Taiwan:13 traded via spot and short-term contracts in 2014 Thailand: 11 Mexico: 7 Japan: 87 ▌ Japan’s spot procurement in 2014 estimated at 87 South Korea: 26 cargoes (about 5.2 MT accounting for 6% of total LNG imports) (Source) ICIS Heren IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 8 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved LNG supply and demand outlook MT Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply 2014 2015 outlook 2016 outlook Japan Asia and Oceania Europe Americas Middle Africa East (Source) IEEJ ▌ As new supply sources have launched operation one after another, supply-pushed growth in demand will be increasingly clear. ▌ Emerging markets especially in Asia will continue to expand imports. IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 9 IEEJ © 2015 ▌ ▌ ▌ Natural gas prices 9.7/MMBtu. LNG priceimportaverage in secondthehalf and of 2016 is 2015at Japan’s $8.8projected theof has rationalitypremium shrank,Asian oil substantially While Japan’s average LNG import price(JLC) hasfallen sinceearly 2015 duetothe crude oil pricedecline. Jan 2011 Mar 2011 NBP futures forward curve curve forward futures NBP JLC JCC May 2011 Jul 2011 (IEEJ assumption) (IEEJ Sep 2011 Nov 2011 (Sources) Energy Intelligence, Energy EIA,(Sources) Platts, CME, IEEJ Jan 2012 Mar 2012 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved May 2012 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Mar 2013 May 2013 JCC U.S. JKM Jul 2013 (IEEJ assumption) (IEEJ Sep 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Mar 2013 May 2014 Jul 2014 - Sep 2014 indexation remains indexation an issue. Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Henry Hub futures forward curve forward Hub futures Henry UK JLC Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 - Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 10 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Conclusions Natural gas supply and demand in major markets ▌ Demand has been firm in the Americas and Asia. Future demand in Europe is uncertain with sovereign debt risks. ▌ U.S. shale gas has remained competitive despite price falls. ▌ Demand growth has been decelerating in the Chinese market. The oil price decline is affecting Russian pipeline gas export projects to China. LNG markets ▌ Demand growth has decelerated in Asia while turning upward in Europe recently. ▌ Market liquidity has been enhanced with growing spot trade. ▌ While the Asian premium has shrunk, the rationality of oil-indexation remains an issue. ▌ Substantial supply growth will accelerate buyers’ market situation. Please direct inquiries to: [email protected] IEEJ © © 2015 IEEJ 11 .
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