Global Gas/LNG Research
Current and Future Natural Gas Demand in
China and India
By
Miranda Wainberg
Senior Energy Advisor
Michelle Michot Foss, Ph.D.
Chief Energy Economist and Program Manager
Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.
Senior Energy Economist and Research Scientist
Daniel Quijano
Economist and Research Associate
April 2017
April 2017, BEG/CEE China/India Gas Demand, Page 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ESSENTIAL ACRONYMNS, UNITS AND CONVERSIONS ...................................................................................................5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS....................................................................................................................................................6 PREFACE.........................................................................................................................................................................7 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................8 MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT FOR NATURAL GAS IN CHINA AND INDIA ......................................................................9
Composition of GDP and Employment Structure......................................................................................................9 GDP Growth and Industrial Structures in China and India ......................................................................................11
Industrial overcapacity and debt in China ..........................................................................................................12 India’s Plans to Increase Share of Industrial Output...........................................................................................14 India’s Corporate Sector .....................................................................................................................................18
NATURAL GAS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................................................20
Historical Trends in Natural Gas Consumption .......................................................................................................20 Role of Natural Gas in Total Primary Energy ...........................................................................................................22 Natural Gas Supplies ...............................................................................................................................................22 Natural Gas Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................25
China ...................................................................................................................................................................26 India ....................................................................................................................................................................29
Gas Supply Allocation Policies.................................................................................................................................31
China ...................................................................................................................................................................31 India ....................................................................................................................................................................32
Regional Gas Consumption .....................................................................................................................................33
China ...................................................................................................................................................................34 India ....................................................................................................................................................................35
Natural Gas Pricing..................................................................................................................................................35
China ...................................................................................................................................................................36 India ....................................................................................................................................................................42
Natural Gas Consumption Detail.............................................................................................................................46
Industrial Sector..................................................................................................................................................48 Considerations for Gas Use in the Industrial Sector in China .............................................................................67 Considerations for Gas Use in the Industrial Sector in India ..............................................................................68
Electric Power Sector ..............................................................................................................................................68
Installed Capacity versus Generation..................................................................................................................70 Considerations for Gas Use in Power Generation in China.................................................................................71 Conclusions on Chinese Power Sector Gas Use ..................................................................................................77 Considerations for Gas Use in Power Generation in India..................................................................................80 Conclusions on Indian Power Sector Gas Use.....................................................................................................85
Residential/Commercial (Households): China.........................................................................................................86 Transport Sector - China..........................................................................................................................................88 City Gas Distribution and the Residential and Transport Sectors: India .................................................................90
NATURAL GAS AND ENERGY SECURITY........................................................................................................................93 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................................96 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................................................97 APPENDIX 1 - MAPS ...................................................................................................................................................114 APPENDIX 2 – HISTORICAL AND FORECAST DATA .....................................................................................................118 IMPLICATIONS FOR AND FROM OUR RESEARCH FOR OUTLOOKS.............................................................................118
Discrepancies in Historical Data Series..................................................................................................................119 Natural Gas Demand Forecasts.............................................................................................................................123
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Stalled Projects (by value) as a fraction of GDP .............................................................................................17 Table 2. Snapshot of China and India Natural Gas Supplies ........................................................................................23
April 2017, BEG/CEE China/India Gas Demand, Page 2
Table 3. Natural Major Gas Pipelines in China............................................................................................................26 Table 4. 2012 National Gas Utilization Policy in China by Customer Type ..................................................................32 Table 5. Gas Utilization Policy in India (2013)..............................................................................................................33 Table 6. China Natural Gas Prices as of March 2016 in US$/MMBtu ..........................................................................37 Table 7. West-East Pipeline Transmission Tariffs in China ..........................................................................................38 Table 8. Other Industrial Sector Gas Use in China 2014 (BCM) ...................................................................................63 Table 9. Urea Production Capacity by Feedstock ........................................................................................................65 Table 10. Incremental Urea Fertilizer Natural Gas Demand above 16 BCM ...............................................................66 Table 11. Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates of Electricity Consumption in China and India .............................69 Table 12. Renewables Electric Generating Capacity GW.............................................................................................74 Table 13. China Electric Generation from Renewables 2011-2015 .............................................................................75 Table 14. Increases in China Power Sector Gas Demand 2014-2030 (BCM) ...............................................................78 Table 15. Stranded and Operating Gas-Fired Power Generation Capacity in India, 4/14-1/15 ..................................85 Table 16. Increases in Indian Power Sector Gas Demand, 2014-2030 (BCM) .............................................................85 Table 17. Gas Consumption by Indian Electric Sector in IEO13 and IEO16 (Quad Btu)...............................................86 Table 18. Residential Fuel Prices, July 2015 ($/MMBtu) .............................................................................................88 Table 19. Piped Natural Gas Customers by State, City, Company and Consumer Type ..............................................91 Table 20. CNG Activities as of 3/31/15........................................................................................................................92 Table 21. China and India Gas Supply and Import Infrastructure................................................................................94 Table 22. China Total Gas Consumption....................................................................................................................119 Table 23. India Total Gas Consumption.....................................................................................................................119 Table 26. China Historical Gas Demand by Sector by Reporter as Revised (BCM) ....................................................121 Table 27. India Historical Gas Demand by Sector by Reporter as Revised (BCM) .....................................................122 Table 28. Primary Energy Growth Rates for India, China ..........................................................................................124 Table 29. China Forecast Comparisons BCM .............................................................................................................126 Table 30. BMI Research China Generation Fuel Sources...........................................................................................128 Table 31. IEA WEO15 Fossil Fuel Import Prices by Scenario......................................................................................129 Table 32. India Forecast Comparisons BCM ..............................................................................................................129 Table 33. IEA NPS India Power Sector Outlooks ........................................................................................................132
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. GDP Growth, Primary Energy and Natural Gas in China and India .................................................................9 Figure 2 – Composition of GDP in China and India (Value Added by Sector) ..............................................................10 Figure 3. Historical and Forecasted GDP Growth Rates ..............................................................................................11 Figure 4. China Industrial Enterprises Value Added and Growth Rate (%)..................................................................12 Figure 5. Manufacturing Value Added as Percentage of GDP .....................................................................................15 Figure 6. Gross Fixed Capital Investment in India as Percentage of GDP ....................................................................16 Figure 7. Subsidy Burden in India ................................................................................................................................16 Figure 8 – Public and Private Investment in India’s Key Sectors .................................................................................18 Figure 9 – Health of the Indian Corporations ..............................................................................................................19 Figure 10. Natural Gas Consumption in China and India............................................................................................21 Figure 11 – Natural Gas Production, Consumption and Imports in China and India, 2005-2015................................21 Figure 12. Distribution of Primary Energy in China and India, 2015...........................................................................22 Figure 13. China and India Gas Production (BCM), Gas Imports (BCM) and Production Growth Rates % ..................23 Figure 14. Global Trends in Natural Gas Prices and Demand ......................................................................................36 Figure 15. Prices for Oil, Imported LNG and Pipeline Gas, and City Gate Prices in China ($/MMBtu) ........................39 Figure 16. Estimated Wholesale Prices of Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, LPG in China March 2016 ($/MMBtu) ....................39 Figure 17. Distribution Gross Margin by City and Gas Consuming Sector March 2016 ($/MMBtu) ...........................40
April 2017, BEG/CEE China/India Gas Demand, Page 3
Figure 18. Average City-gate and Netback Producer Natural Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) .................................................41 Figure 19. Indian Domestic Gas Price versus International Gas Prices, 1997-2014 ($/MMBtu) .................................43 Figure 20. Indian Domestic Natural Gas Prices November 2014-March 2016 ($/MMBtu) .........................................44 Figure 21. Natural Gas Consumption in China and India by Sector 2014 ....................................................................46 Figure 22. Industrial Gas Consumption by Sector in China (BCM)...............................................................................48 Figure 23. Industrial Gas Consumption by Sector in India (BCM)................................................................................49 Figure 24. Chemicals Sector Use of Gas and Energy in China......................................................................................52 Figure 25. China Total Petrochemical Cracker Feedstock by Fuel, 2016 .....................................................................52 Figure 26. Refinery Capacity and Throughput in China and India ...............................................................................55 Figure 27. Refining Sector Use of Gas and Energy in China.........................................................................................57 Figure 28. Steel Sector Use of Gas and Energy in China ..............................................................................................60 Figure 29. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Use of Gas and Energy in China......................................................................62 Figure 30. Other Industries’ Use of Gas in China (BCM)..............................................................................................64 Figure 31. Urea Fertilizer Sales, Production and Imports in India ...............................................................................65 Figure 32. Electricity Consumption and GDP in China and India .................................................................................69 Figure 33. Installed Generation Capacity in China and India, 2015.............................................................................70 Figure 34. Generation by Fuel in India and China, 2015..............................................................................................71 Figure 35. Prices of Alternative Fuels in Power Generation ........................................................................................72 Figure 36. Power Sector Gas Use Scenarios in China...................................................................................................79 Figure 37. Coal Production, Consumption and Targets in India ..................................................................................80 Figure 38. Captive Power Plant Generation by Fuel in India (148 billion kWh), 2013.................................................82 Figure 39. Accumulated Losses by Power Sector Segment, 2003-2011 ......................................................................83 Figure 40. Gas Demand of the Power Sector and Domestic Gas Production in India .................................................84 Figure 41. Comparison of Overall Cost of Power Gen under Different Fuel-Mix Scenarios in India ...........................84 Figure 42. Household Energy Demand in China (MMTOE)..........................................................................................87 Figure 43. Natural Gas Use in China Transportation ...................................................................................................89 Figure 44. India City Gas Distribution Gas Demand vs. LPG (BCM) .............................................................................91 Figure 45. Map of China Natural Gas Features..........................................................................................................115 Figure 46. China’s Natural Gas and Electric Power Value Chain...............................................................................116 Figure 47. Map of India Natural Gas Features...........................................................................................................117 Figure 48. China Historical Industrial Gas Demand as Reported and Revised (BCM)................................................120 Figure 49. India Historical Industrial Gas Demand as Reported and Revised (BCM) .................................................121 Figure 50. Historical Primary Energy Demand Growth and Forecasts for China and India .......................................124 Figure 51. IEA WEO Outlooks on China Natural Gas Demand ..................................................................................125 Figure 52. IEA WEO Outlooks on India Natural Gas Demand ...................................................................................125