The Debt Supercycle and How It Can Impact Fixed Income
A conversation with Paul Matlack The debt supercycle and how it can impact fixed income One important issue in the current fixed income environment is the debt supercycle, the rapidly growing assumption of debt by consumers, businesses, and governments. The fixed income investment team at Paul Matlack, CFA Delaware Investments — a group known for its frank and Senior Portfolio Manager, candid exchange of investment ideas and diversity of Fixed Income Strategist thought — has focused on the debt supercycle as just one of the key issues facing fixed income investors today. To gain perspective from a central member of the team, we spoke with senior portfolio manager Paul Matlack about the debt supercycle’s impact on the bond market. From your vantage point, what’s the situation with global debt levels? Without dispute, we have high debt levels in many major markets — the United States, Japan, and China among them. And there’s little doubt that those high debt levels are a headwind to growth. But overall, my view of the debt supercycle is that it’s akin to climate change: It’s definite, it’s real, and it’s a threat. While this is concerning, I’m not convinced that it necessarily poses a doomsday scenario. Rather, I look at how we can live with the debt supercycle and invest around it. Still, it’s hard for me to see how a problem of that magnitude gets solved short of reaching and sustaining strong growth rates — rates that will generate tax revenues and lead to debt being paid down. I recognize that a path for sustained, strong growth isn’t immediately clear, especially not in this environment where we’re assuming a U.S.
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