http://www.esrahomepage.org June 2016

Editorial in contact with one or more of ESRA’s 27 Technical Committees (TCs). When registered you will be informed by the Chairs of the TCs on relevant activities, and how you can be involved in these if you Terje Aven are interested. See the website (esrahomepage.eu) for ESRA Chairman further information. University of Stavanger, The second ESRA webinar was held 14 June 2016 (titled Challenges and opportunities in reliability engineering: the big KID (Knowledge, Information and

Data), with Professor Enrico Zio as presenter. It was Dear ESRA Colleagues, indeed stimulating and if you missed it, you can find a The program for ESREL 2016 has now been recorded video of it on the ESRA website. The next released and for sure this will be an interesting webinar will be hold by Professor Michael Beer on conference with many stimulating talks and uncertainty treatment. An announcement will soon be discussions, covering a broad spectre of topics related released. to safety, risk and reliability; with generic contributions See you soon in Glasgow 25-29 September. as well as more applied work. In addition to the plenary speeches, I would like to draw attention to the Editorial ninety minute keynote tutorials, for those wishing to learn more about specific topics: “Reliability Assessment of Complex Systems” by Antoine Rauzy, Carlos Guedes Soares “Cyber Security for High-Reliability, Safety Critical ESRA Newsletter Editor Systems” by Chris Johnston, “Uncertainty Instituto Superior Técnico, Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis: an Universidade de Lisboa introduction” by Emanuele Borgonovo and “Demystifying Human Performance Modelling: An Absolute Beginner’s Guide to Dynamic Human The ESRA Newsletter has been published for a Reliability Analysis” by Ron Boring. number of years now. It started in 2002 and at that A special plenary ESRA session is also provided at stage it was only possible to produce 2 per year. In the end of the conference: informal Question & 2012 an improvement in frequency has been possible Answer session on methodological and practical issues and since then it has been produced 4 times per year, of broad interest regarding Safety and Reliability, led which is felt to be the right compromise to keep a by the former and the current ESRA Chairman. Your regular flow of information and not to overload questions will be distributed to experts from the ESRA contributors and readers with excessive material. Technical Committees for competent responses. One of the strong supports of the Newsletter has Questions and answers will be read and discussed been its Editorial Board, which has in principle one interactively during the session. For further details, see person from each of the relevant countries from its our new ESRA website (esrahomepage.eu) which has membership. The role of the Editorial Board members now be launched. are to collect news and feature articles for the An email is sent out to all ESRA members and Newsletter, eventually writing themselves some of the ESREL conference participants, with invitation to get news from their countries. ESRA Newsletter June 2016 1 The other strong support has been the ESRA Deep uncertainty is referring to cases where there is Technical Committees that have contributed with a poor knowledge base - little relevant data, shaky several of the feature articles included in the assumptions, poor phenomenological understanding, Newsletter. There is however scope for improvement experts not in consensus, potential for surprises - and in this area, which would very much help to keep a accurate prediction models cannot be established. Deep timely production of the Newsletter. If each Technical uncertainty cases may include complex offshore Committee would take the responsibility to produce drilling operations, operations of highly intertwined one feature article (1-2 pages) per year there would infrastructure, and how to prepare for potential terrorist always be material ready for the Newsletter to be attacks. Also, the poor knowledge base means that produced, avoiding some delays that occur probabilities are hard to justify. Hence, traditional risk unfortunately more often than desired. So here I leave perspectives based on probabilities are not very my invitation and challenge to the Technical suitable for dealing with deep uncertainty cases. It is a Committees. major challenge for risk analysts and managers how to After several years without changing the Editorial deal with the deep uncertainty cases. Board we have now a significant change bring a group One approach commonly advocated is adaptive risk of younger members to substitute the more experienced management, and one contribution in the thesis is to do one and to keep the Newsletter activity alive. There are adaptive risk management using the new risk 5 Board members that retire now and 6 new members perspectives. A key thinking in the new perspectives is joining. I would like to extend my thanks for the to separate between the concept of risk and how to outgoing members for their support during the years measure it, and that uncertainty is a main component of and to wish the new ones good luck in their activities risk2. This thinking opens up to approaches other than to mobilise ESRA members to contribute to the purely probability based, and in the thesis, some Newsletter. different ways are used, also qualitative ones. A second deep uncertainty contribution concerns the relationship between risk analysts and the managers. From a manager’s perspective: what should PhD Degrees Completed the risk analyst provide so that the deep uncertainty challenges, with poor knowledge and the potential for surprises, is better incorporated into the decision- making process? A new request form for that very Foundational issues in risk analysis purpose is presented in the thesis. and risk management: Advance- Complex systems are cases were accurate ments in the treatment of model prediction models are hard to establish. One key issue being interdependencies not being sufficiently uncertainty and deep uncertainty accounted for. Traditional risk analysis tools such as event chain models suffer from these insufficiencies. However, there are methods and models being Torbjørn Bjerga developed that aim to address the complexity issues. In University of Stavanger, Norway the thesis, the Functional Resonance Analysis Method Supervisors: Prof. Terje Aven (FRAM) and the System-Theoretic Accident Model Co-supervisor: Roger Flage (STAMP) approach are discussed. The thesis argues that these approaches would provide better decision support if being combined with tools to better describe

On 11th of May, 2016 Torbjørn Bjerga presented uncertainties and the potential for surprises. and defended successfully his PhD thesis titled Even though it can be difficult to establish accurate Foundational issues in risk analysis and risk prediction models for deep uncertainty cases, models management: Advancements in the treatment of model are commonly used in risk assessments, typically of the uncertainty and deep uncertainty, at the University of types logical, physical or probabilistic. A model is a Stavanger, Norway. The members of the judging simplified representation of reality, and it comes committee were Associate Professor Enrique Lopez natural to ask how ‘good’ the model actually is. It is Droguett (main opponent), University of Chile, Dr. common to refer to model uncertainty and (model) Ullrika Sahlin (opponent), Lund University, , completeness uncertainty, but there are different ideas and Professor Eirik Abrahamsen (administrator), on what is meant by these terms and how to treat them. In the thesis a conceptual framework by Aven and University of Stavanger. Torbjørn has been supervised 3 by Professor Terje Aven, with Associate Professor Zio , which tries to clear up certain aspects concerning Roger Flage as co-supervisor. He also visited Professor model uncertainty, is illustrated in use. New ways of Enrico Zio and his research team at Ecole Centrale describing model uncertainties, both quantitative and Paris for three months during the Spring of 2014. qualitative are tried out and evaluated. The thesis also The thesis mainly addresses the treatment of model argues that the new framework covers, and makes uncertainty and deep uncertainty - two foundational obsolete, completeness uncertainty, a category found in issues in risk analysis and risk management1 that are a common epistemic uncertainty classification system. relevant for many applications and industries, for The thesis is obtainable in pdf-format by sending a example the oil and gas industry. request to: [email protected]. ESRA Newsletter June 2016 2 References: a fault detection system due to the variable operational 1. Aven T and Zio E. Foundational issues in risk conditions experienced by an equipment during its life, assessment and risk management. Risk Analysis, based on the offline estimation of Prediction Intervals 2014, 34.7: 1164-1172 (PIs) with a predefined confidence level by using Order 2. Society for Risk Analysis. Glossary. Retrieved Statistics (OS) theory. PIs are, then, exploited within August 3, 2016 from http://www.sra.org/resources an online non-parametric, sequential decision strategy 3. Aven T and Zio E. Model output uncertainty in risk to assess whether the equipment is working in normal assessment. International Journal of Performability or abnormal conditions irrespective of the actual Engineering, 2013, 9.5: 475-486. operational conditions. This method will be shown to overcome traditional auto-associative approaches when Development of Data-Driven dealing with fault detection under variable operational conditions, for example during transients affected by Methods for Prognostics and Health large process uncertainty. Management under Variable Opera- Once an abnormal condition is detected, a fault diagnostics system is generally used to identify the tional Conditions in Industrial causes of the occurred abnormality. This is Equipment traditionally done by partitioning the collected data into dissimilar groups (whose number is generally “a priori” unknown, that makes the problem Sameer Al-Dahidi unsupervised) and, then, among these, identifying the Politecnico di Milano, characteristics of the different groups of behavior. To Supervisors: Dr. Francesco Di this aim, an unsupervised ensemble clustering method Maio and Prof. Enrico Zio is developed for identifying the characteristics of the Co-supervisor: Prof. Piero equipment behaviour under different operational Baraldi conditions that can be provided to the diagnosis system

as an adjuvant information that may enhance the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a characterization of the causes of degradation process field of research and application aiming at detecting the that leads the equipment towards failure. degradation onset of industrial equipment, diagnosing Finally, the benefit of utilizing the information its faults, predicting its failure time and proactively collected on an heterogeneous fleet of equipment managing its maintenance to avoid shutdown by means experiencing different operational conditions is shown of fault detection, fault diagnostics and fault on the performances of both fault diagnostics and fault prognostics systems, respectively (refer to Figure 1). prognostics systems. With respect to the former, a PHM relies on diverse sources of information collected framework of analysis is proposed that capitalizes all through sensors placed on the equipment representative the available information of the fleet by incrementally of the equipment behaviour (e.g., vibration) and of the learning different equipment behaviours and operational conditions the equipment is subjected to operational conditions of the fleet, without forgetting (e.g., temperature) that affect the equipment behaviour the previously learnt knowledge. With respect to the information. latter, a method based on an Homogeneous Discrete- Time Finite-State Semi-Markov Model is proposed to

Normal model the degradation process and, correspondingly, Fault Conditions Detection estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of an Vibration Abnormal Conditions equipment of a fleet, whose operational conditions are

No t fundamental to characterize the states describing the Anomaly of Type 1 Maintenance Fault … process. Diagnostics Anomaly of Type 2 Maintenance Temperature Anomaly of Type 3 The effectiveness of the proposed fault detection Equipment Decision Maintenance Maker Decision approach is demonstrated on real industrial case t Fault Remaining Useful concerning 27 shut-down transients of a Sensors Prognostics Life (RUL) measurements Plant (NPP) turbine, whereas the proposed fault diagnostics approaches are applied to a fleet of two Figure 1: PHM systems. NPPs turbines of 149 and 116 shut-down transients.

This PhD work addresses the challenges that fault Finally, the applicability of the proposed fault detection, fault diagnostics and fault prognostics prognostics approach is shown on two case studies systems development faces when dealing with regarding an heterogeneous fleet of aluminium industrial equipment working under variable electrolytic capacitors used in electrical automotive operational conditions. In this work, novel industry and an heterogeneous fleet of turbofan engines computational methods are proposed to address the used in aircraft industry. detection of incipient faults, the diagnostics of their Results show that, in case of industrial equipment causes and the prognostics of the available time to working under variable operational conditions, the undertake effective countermeasures on an equipment proposed PHM methods allow obtaining more working under variable operational conditions. accurate, robust and precise detection, diagnostics and Firstly, a method is proposed for quantifying and prognostics results than with traditional PHM controlling the uncertainty affecting the performance of approaches. ESRA Newsletter June 2016 3 The use of diffusion process for For a very first time a jump diffusion process with markovian covariates is used to model the deterioration modeling, condition- deterioration. The thesis give a methodology for based maintenance and prognosis reliability and lifetime estimation of a non increasing deteriorating system when the increments are not Houda Ghamlouch defended her Ph.D. degree with normally distributed. First the statistical properties of honors in Troyes University of Technology, in the field increments are studied. of reliability engineering, data analysis and applied Afterward the measures dependency is tested in statistics. Her thesis was supervised by Mitra order to decide whether time series such as AR, ARCH Fouladiradand Antoine Grall from Troyes University should be used or a Levy process could capture the of Technology (UTT) deterioration features. If the increments dependence is The PhD was supported by the Regional Council discarded, a jump diusion process with covariates can of Champagne-Ardenne (RCCA) and the European be considered to fit the model. The deterioration Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in the framework modeling is applied to a large set of collected data of RISK PERFOM project. The main aim of the project corresponding to aggregated health indicators of was to adopt advanced methods used in financial similar complex systems. domain in reliability calculations and prognosis of industrial systems. The PhD was defended successfully the first day of summer, 21 June 2016, in front of internationally well known researchers in reliability engineering and statistics: • Bruno CASTANIER (University of Anger, ) • Serkan ERYILMAZ (Atilim University,) • Anne GEGOUT-PETIT (University of Lorraine, France) • Antoien Grall (Troyes University of Technology, France) • William Q. MEEKER (University of Michigan Medical School, USA)

• Ananda SEN, (University of Michigan Medical School, USA) A major concern for engineers and managers RESS News nowadays is to make high quality products and highly reliable systems. In this context, reliability analysis and failure prediction, besides of efficient maintenance decision-making are strongly required. Deterioration modeling and analysis is a fundamental step for the Carlos Guedes Soares understanding and the anticipation of system behavior. Editor-in-Chief RESS Consider a functional system operating in unstable Instituto Superior Técnico, conditions or environment where the deterioration level Universidade de Lisboa is not observable and could not be determined by direct measures. For this system a set of measurable health indicator that indirectly reflects the system working conditions and deterioration level can be defined and The Reliability Engineering and System Safety examined. Considering these indicators, the (RESS) Journal has had a long association with ESRA, development of a mathematical model describing the as shown in the Journal cover page. You may have system behavior is required. noticed that in the recent past a more active policy In this thesis, a set of non-monotone indicators towards having special sections or issues on specific evolving in a dynamic environment is considered. topics has been implemented. Taking into account the major features of the data Presently there are three special issues in the evolution as well as the impact of dynamic process of completing the paper reviews and soon will environment consequences and potential shocks, be published: stochastic models based on Wiener and jump processes Special Issue: “Games and Decisions in Reliability are proposed for these indicators. Each model is and Risk”, Guest Editors: Refik Soyer, USA, Suleyman calibrated and tested, and their limits are discussed. A Ozekici, Turkey. decision-making approach for preventive maintenance strategies is then proposed. In this approach, knowing Special Issue: "Reliability and Safety Certification the RUL of the system, a simulation-based real options of Software-Intensive Systems" Guest Editors: Barbara analysis is used in order to determine the best date to Gallina, Sweden and Roberto Natella, Italy. maintain. Considering a case study of a wind turbine Special Issue: "Reliability and Performance of with PHM structure, the decision optimization Multi-State Systems", Guest Editors: Gregory Levitin, approach is described. Israel and Liudong Xing, USA. ESRA Newsletter June 2016 4 It is of interest to bring your attention to the call for 6th International Conference on papers that is now open for two new Special issues, inviting you to consider submitting to those: Accelerated Life Testing and Special Issue: "Complex Systems RAMS Degradation Models (ALT2016) Optimization: Methods and Applications " Guest Troyes, France Editors: David Coit, USA, Enrico Zio, Italy. 22-24 June 2016 (Submissions start June, 2016) Conference website: https://alt2016.sciencesconf.org Special Issue on "Maintenance Modelling" Guest Mitra Fouladirad, Troyes University of Technology Editors: Shaomin Wu, UK, and Phuc Do, France. (Submissions start July, 2016) ALT'2016 the 6th international conference was I hope that several of you may feel inclined to concerned with the latest scientific results and submit to these special issues. applications in reliability testing and analysis. The conference brought researchers and practitioners from

universities, institutions and industries, together to

present and discuss innovative methodologies and practical applications in the reliability field: assessment, modeling, testing, analysis, design and Past Safety and Reliability Events optimisation. Theoretical issues and applied case studies ranged from academic considerations to industrial, medical, and social applications were considered. The industrials participated largely to the 35th International Conference on organisation and presentations. The industrial Ocean, Offshore and Arctic committee was composed with personalities from the industry Alstom, EADS, Renault, Orange, SNCF, etc. Engineering (OMAE2016) all working in reliability. This committee involved in Symposium on Structures, Safety the organisation of the conference helped into promoting the relationships between academics and and Reliability industrialists. Busan, South Korea The conference was held from June 22th to June 19-24 June 2016 24th 2016 in Troyes (France). Troyes is largely a 16th century city, with most of today’s buildings and layout Carlos Guedes Soares, Coordinator of the OMAE2016 dating from what locals call the “beautiful 16th Structures, Safety and Reliability Symposium century”. This pivotal era, spanning both the Middle Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa Ages and the Renaissance, has left a lasting legacy on

Troyes as it is today. This Symposium, which has been on-going at the Based on the previous editions, around 5 half-days OMAE Conference since 1990, includes all types of were planned for the talks. Each morning and probabilistically based formulations as well as the risk afternoon started with plenary invited talks. Between, and reliability papers presented at the OMAE there will be an alternate of parallel sessions and Conference. Few years ago it started including also plenary invited talks. The program included around 40 Papers dealing with topics of offshore structures. talks and the plenary invited talks were given by ESRA is one of the Associations that support this academics as well as industrials. The following Conference and this Symposium in particular. internationally well known researchers in statistics In the past Symposium 110 papers have been were involved in plenary talks: presented in 26 sessions, from which about 10 were • William Meeker Iowa State University (USA) more specific of structures. The Safety and Reliability • Jean Francois Dupuis INSA de Rennes (France) papers were spread in sessions of probabilistic and • Ananda Sen University of Michigan Medical spectral modelling of waves, Probabilistic Models of School (USA) Forces and Motions, Reliability of Marine Structures, • Serkan Eryilmaz Atilim University (Turkey) Fatigue Reliability, Reliability of Mooring and Riser For the plenary talks, were also invited three Systems, Risk and Reliability of Renewable Energy industrials representing very famous and influential Devices, Reliability Based Maintenance and Inspection european companies: Planning, Risk Analysis and Safety Management; • Nicolas Bousquet Electricity of France (EDF Human and Organizational Factors. Many interesting France) papers have been presented and interested discussions • Leïla MARLE Research and innovation centre for have followed. The electronic proceedings are gas and new energy of GDF SUEZ (France) available from ASME, The American Society for • Thomas Santini Airbus Defence and Space (France) Mechanical Engineers. The conference was very international. Researchers from all over the world participated to the conference. ALT2016 had presentations and participants mainly from Europe but also from Middle East (Iran, Turkey), ESRA Newsletter June 2016 5 Asia (Hong kong, Taiwan, …), South America Multidisciplinary character of the Conference was (Brazil), North America (USA) and Africa (Algeria, conditioned for the organization of some Workshops Morocco, …). under the Conference that thematically agree with The presentations were addressed to statistical principal investigate areas and topics of the researchers and practitioners. Several fields have been Conference. One of them is Reliability Workshops. All addressed such as Simulation-Based Inference in papers presented at this Workshop were included in the Reliability, reliability calculation of complex systems, Conference Proceedings. The Program Committee of Degradation modelling by stochastic processes, this Workshop was formed by internationally Accelerated Lifetime testing, Bayesian analysis and recognized experts. Chairs of this Workshop Prof. reliability estimation, inference methods for reliability Radim Briš () and Prof. Enrico Zio assessment, maintenance policies under stress and (France, Italy) significantly contributed to organization environment factors, maintenance optimisation with of the Workshop. Next plenary presentations were at unknown reliability parameters, Repairable Systems this Workshop: and Competing Risks, Better than new maintenance - Designing High-Reliability Health Care, Paul modelling, Imperfect maintenance. Several application Barach, MD, MPH, Maj(ret.) - Wayne State University fields have been considered: Evaluation of School of Medicine, Detroit, United States maintenance efficiency and optimisation for natural gas - Critical (Cyber) Computing: Challenges and compressor, Acceleration Degradation Test in Cases for Industry and Human Domains, Prof. Aerospace applications, Mixed Flowing Gas Testing Vyacheslav Kharchenko - National Aerospace on electronics, etc. University “KhAI” (Kharkiv, ). A round table composed of academics such as Min More than 100 submissions from 21 countries were Xie, William Meeker and industrials from EDF, obtained. 52 papers were selected to publish in the Renault, Airbus, StatXpert discussed several issues in Proceedings based on the reviewing. Every paper has maintenance, reliability and lifetime analysis and been reviewed at least two reviewers. The approved proposed interesting perspectives for future papers are organized into 3 plenary presentations, 12 collaborations between university and industry. working sections and poster section. In the plenary For the social program, the participants visited the sessions, distinguished plenary speakers give a review museum of Charles De Gaulle in Colombey-les-Deux- of the future perspectives in their research areas: Églises near Troyes. Afterward, all the participants and reliability, information technologies and biomedical the accompanying persons were taken to a small informatics. About 50% submitted papers were village in Champagne, to visit wine and Champagne published in the Conference Proceedings. The cellars, to test different champagne production. A very Conference Proceedings of the Conference IDT 2016 traditional dinner composed by local products and has been included in the well-known scientific served with Champagne closed the social activities. repositories: Scopus and IEEEXplore (http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?pu number=7547853). The ESRA sponsoring allows us to support participation of PhD students and young researchers, and colleagues from such countries as and Ukraine. Thanks to this sponsoring we were able to support of invited lectures at the Workshop. Moreover the organization support of ESRA is useful too. A lot of ESRA members were involved in the Conference The International Conference on Program Committee and reviewing process. Our organization team will be glad to extend the Information and Digital Techno- cooperation with ESRA members. New ESRA logies 2016 (IDT 2016) members are welcome in the Program Committee. We Rzeszów, will be glad to obtain your proposition about cooperation and new ideas for the Conference by e- 5-7 July 2016 mail of organization team [email protected]. Therefore Elena Zaitseva, co-chair of IDT 2016, University of the support of ESRA was very important for the Zilina, organization team of the Conference. Our organizational team is grateful to all members The International Conference on Information and of the Program Committee for the support of reviewing Digital Technologies is organized by team from process. Their work to improve the scientific level of University of Zilina (Slovakia). In this year the the Conference is greatly appreciated. Also I would Conference was held in Poland at the University of like to acknowledge the local organizing committee Rzeszow on July 5 – 7 and for supported by ESRA. from the University of Rzeszow. The Conference (http://idt.fri.uniza.sk) is annual and Beside the scientific field, several cultural and covers topics within digital signal processing and social events held in pleasant atmosphere. information technologies, reliability, risk and safety, In 2017 year next Conference will organized. Our testing and fault-tolerant systems, etc. team hopes that the International Conference on Information and Digital Technologies

ESRA Newsletter June 2016 6 (http://idt.fri.uniza.sk) in July 2017 will involve a lot of gnostics and prognostics of industrial participants in reliability engineering. equipment” International Conference on Qua- Milan, Italy lity, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, 16-20 November 2016 and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE The 2015 professional one-week training course: 2016) “Advanced methods for reliability, availability, maintainability, diagnostics and prognostics of Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, China, industrial equipment” took place at Politecnico di 25-28 July 2016 Milano, Milan (Italy) on November 16-20. The course Carlos Guedes Soares, Co-Chair of QR2MSE2016, was the XVIII edition of the series. Its goal has been to Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa provide the participants with the methodological competences and the computational tools necessary to The 2016 International Conference on Quality, tackle critical problems in the areas of reliability, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering availability, maintainability, diagnostics and (QR2MSE 2016) was held together with the 2016 prognostics. To this purpose, the course has presented World Congress on Engineering Asset Management proven methods to improve safety, increase efficiency, (WCEAM 2016). The Conference was chaired by manage equipment aging and obsolescence, automate Professor Hong-Zhong Huang, Director of the Institute maintenance and reduce maintenance costs of of Reliability Engineering of the University of industrial systems. Electronic Science and Technology of China. The Co- Since the beginning, the course has been officially Chairs were Professors Joseph Mathew, Queensland supported by ESRA and since 2005 official University of Technology, Australia; Carlos Guedes scholarships have been offered. The 2015 edition of the Soares, University of Lisbon, ; Dong Ho Park, course has been supported by ESRA with two Hallym University, Korea; and Tadashi Dohi, scholarships covering the registration fee. The 2015 Hiroshima University, Japan. scholarships have been offered to two Ph.D students, The Conference was supported by a number of one of Università degli Studi di Salerno (Salerno, Italy) professional organizations, among which ESRA. and the other of University of Twente (Twente, The Almost 500 papers have been submitted to this Netherlands). conference and 193 papers have been selected from all The first part of the course has been devoted to the the submissions and included in the conference presentation of advanced methods for the availability, proceedings distributed at the Conference, both in reliability and maintainability analysis of complex paper and electronically. The conference program systems and for the development of Prognostics and included 9 keynote speakers, 4 special sessions, and 20 Health Management (PHM) and Condition Based regular technical paper oral sessions. Among the Maintenance (CBM) approaches. In this respect, the keynote speakers one was from the ESRA Technical basics of Monte Carlo Simulation, nonlinear regression Committee on Maritime Transportation: Prof Jin Wang and filter models (Artificial Neural Networks, Principal introduced Risk-based Decision Making in Design and Component Analysis, Auto Associative Kernel Operation of Large Engineering Systems under Regression, Ensemble Systems, Particle filter) is Uncertainties. illustrated. In the second part of the course, exercise The Conference has been held every year since sessions on Monte Carlo simulation, Artificial Neural 2013, organised by the same institute at different Networks, Auto Associative Kernel Regression and locations in China and has been growing its Ensemble systems provide the participants with the international participation and its quality. It is opportunity of directly applying the methods to organised in a way that is somewhat common in China practical case studies. Finally, in the last part of the with plenary lectures every morning and a number of course, real applications of the advanced methods have parallel sessions in the afternoon. The sessions were been presented by the course organizers and well attended and all papers were presented and participants. The applications range from Monte Carlo discussed in English. Simulation for availability analysis and condition- The location of the Conference was also an based maintenance management to regression and excellent one with a well know Natural Park in the classification techniques for fault detection, vicinity allowing the post-conference tour to visit classification and prognosis in different industrial Jiuzhaigou. sectors. In summary the Conference was very worthwhile to During the last day of the course, participants had participate in. the opportunity to take part at the seminar “Diagnostics and Prognostics for Maintenance Engineering and Continuing education course: Management: Achievements and Challenges” organized by Politecnico di Milano and supported by “Advanced methods for reliability, ARAMIS S.r.l, the Prognostics and System Health availability, maintainability, dia- Management technical committee of ESRA and the IEEE Reliability Society, Italy Chapter. Talks by Dr.

ESRA Newsletter June 2016 7 Kamal Medjaher and Prof. Noureddine Zerhouni The 35th Symposium on Reliable Distributed (FEMTO-ST Institute/National Institute in Mechanics Systems (SRDS 2016) plans to run pre-conference and Microtechnologies, France), Dr. Stavros workshops (half-day or full-day) on September 26th, Ntalampiras (Politecnico di Milano, Italy) Prof. 2016, similarly to what happened in previous editions Gyunyoung Heo (Kyung Hee University, South of the conference. Researchers interested in organizing Korea), Dr. Pierre Dersin (ALSTOM Transport’s a workshop on topics related to reliable distributed Information Solutions, France) addressed relevant systems are invited to submit workshop proposals. topics in the prognostic and health management field. The proposals shall be submitted via e-mail to the The 2016 edition of the course fill take place at SRDS 2016 Workshop Co-chairs: Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy) on November 21- • Sanjay Madria, Missouri University of Science and 24. The ESRA support will cover 2 registration fees to Technology, USA - [email protected] be awarded to PhD students. • Miguel Correia, INESC-ID, Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal – [email protected]

Calendar of Safety and Reliability Important dates: Events  February 28, 2016 – Workshop proposals  March 4, 2016 – Notification of acceptance  September 26, 2016 – Workshop day

Conference website: http://srds2016.inf.mit.bme.hu The 35th International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability and Advanced methods for reliability, Security (SafeComp 2016) availability, maintainability, diag- Trondheim, Norway nostics and prognostics of industrial 20-23 September 2016 equipment

Since it was established in 1979 by the European Milan, Italy Workshop on Industrial Computer Systems, Technical 21-24 November 2016 Committee 7 on Reliability, Safety and Security (EWICS TC7), SAFECOMP has contributed to the The course is mainly dedicated to engineers, progress of the state-of-the-art in dependable analysts and researchers in the area of reliability and application of computers in safety-related and safety- risk analysis, and to developers and users of systems critical systems. SAFECOMP is an annual event for Diagnostics, Prognostics and Health Management covering the state-of-the-art, experience and new (PHM) and Condition Based Maintenance (CBM), trends in the areas of safety, security and reliability of including Controls/Diagnostic Engineers, Engineering critical computer applications. Supervisors, Operator/Maintenance Engineers, and SAFECOMP provides ample opportunity to Program Managers. exchange insights and experience on emerging The goal of this course is to provide participants methods, approaches and practical solutions. It is a with the methodological competences and the single track conference without parallel sessions, computational tools necessary to tackle critical allowing easy networking. problems in the areas of reliability, availability, The conference covers all aspects related to the maintainability, diagnostics and prognostics of development, assessment, operation and maintenance industrial equipment. The course presents proven of safety-related and safety-critical computer systems. methods to improve safety, increase efficiency, manage equipment aging and obsolescence, automate Important dates: maintenance and reduce maintenance costs of  February 1, 2016 – Workshop proposal submission industrial equipment and systems.  March 4, 2016 – Full paper submission  May 6, 2016 – Notification of acceptance Important dates:  June 13, 2016 – Fast Abstract submission  November 13, 2016 – Registration deadline  September 20, 2016 – Workshops  September 21-23, 2016 – Conference Conference website: http://www.lasar.polimi.it

Conference website: http://ntnu.edu/safecomp2016 14th International Probabilistic

35th Symposium on Reliable Workshop (IPW 2016) Distributed Systems (SRDS) Ghent, 5-7 December 2016 Budapest, 26-29 September 2016 The conference is intended for civil and structural engineers and other professionals concerned with

ESRA Newsletter June 2016 8 structures, systems or facilities that require the 36th International Conference on assessment of safety, risk and reliability. Participants could therefore be consultants, contractors, suppliers, Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engine- owners, operators, insurance experts, authorities and ering (OMAE2017) those involved in research and teaching. Symposium on Structures, Safety Conference website: http://www.ipw2016.ugent.be and Reliability Trondheim Norway 27th International Conference on 25-30 June 2017 Safety and Reliability (ESREL2017) Portoroz, Since 2003, the OMAE conference has more than tripled in size, with over 1,000 participants at OMAE 18-22 June 2017 2015 in St. John’s, Canada and over 900 in Busan, Korea. The annual OMAE conference is an The annual European Safety and Reliability international assembly of engineers, researchers, and Conference ESREL is an international conference students in the fields of ocean, offshore and arctic under the auspices of the European Safety and engineering. Reliability Association (ESRA Website: The conference is organized by thematic area in 9 esrahomepage.eu) traditional Symposia, one of which deals with topics of The 27th edition of the international conference, Safety and Reliability as applied to this industrial ESREL 2017, will provide a forum for presentation domain. This Symposium typically has around 120 and discussion of scientific works covering theories papers and thus is an interesting venue for reliability and methods in the field of risk, safety and reliability, specialists that want to develop applications in this and their application to a wide range of industrial, civil industrial sector. and social sectors and problem areas. ESREL 2017 will Call for papers - Authors should submit a also be an opportunity for researchers and practitioners, title/abstract to begin the paper submission process. academics and engineers to meet, exchange ideas and Draft manuscripts and final-paper submissions must gain insights from each other. conform to ASME publication guidelines. Abstracts and Papers, Proceedings and Publication: Specific questions can be addressed to the Authors are invited to submit one page abstracts Symposium Coordinator at: using the predefined abstract template file. [email protected] Technical program committee will review the abstracts and inform the authors about the acceptance. Important dates: The full length papers have to be submitted using the  October 7, 2016 - Submission of Abstract Due Date paper template file.  January 9, 2017 - Submission of Full-Length Draft A peer review of the papers will be performed and Paper for Review accepted papers will be published in indexed  February 6, 2017 - Paper Reviews Completed Proceedings of ESREL2017, published by Taylor and  February 13, 2017 - Author Notification of Required Francis. Extended versions of selected papers will be Revisions submitted to a special issue of scientific journal.  February 27, 2017 - Author Notification of Acceptance of Paper Important dates  March 27, 2017 - Submission of Final Paper  November 10, 2016 - Abstract submittal  November 20, 2016 - Abstracts acceptance Conference Website: http://www.omae2017.com notification  January 10, 2017 - Full papers submittal The International Conference on  February 15, 2017 - Early bird registration  June 18-22, 2017 - Conference Information and Digital

Organisers Technologies 2017 (IDT 2017) General Chair: Marko Cepin Zilina, Slovakia General Co-Chair: Terje Aven 5-7 July 2017 Steering Committee Chair: Enrico Zio Program Committee Chair: Radim Bris The International Conference IDT'2017 is the annual event. The aim of the Conference is to bring Conference Information and Contacts together researches, developers, teachers from Conference website: http://www.esrel2017.org academy as well as industry working in all areas of Email: [email protected] digital technologies. Especially young researchers and Conference secretary phone: +386 1 620 82 35 postgraduate PhD students are greatly welcome to General chair phone: +386 1 4768 243 participate in this event. Beside the scientific field, several cultural and social events are planned for the enjoyment of the Conference attendees.

ESRA Newsletter June 2016 9 Each paper will be evaluated for acceptance by at  IB Informatica, Italy least two peer reviewers. Furthermore, paid registration  RINA, Italy to the Conference is mandatory for paper acceptance  TECSA, SpA, Italy (one registration per paper). We are going to add the  TNO Defence Research, The Netherlands publication of the full set of accepted papers  Dovre Safetec Nordic AS, Norway IEEEXplore, Scopus and Web of Science.  PRIO, Norway  SINTEF Industrial Management, Norway Special events:  Central Mining Institute, Poland The two Workshops in framework of the  Adubos de Portugal, Portugal conference will be organized:  Transgás - Sociedade Portuguesa de Gás Natural, - Int. Workshop on Biomedical Technologies Portugal - Int. Workshop on Reliability Technologies  Cia. Portuguesa de Producção Electrica, Portugal  Siemens SA Power, Portugal Important dates:  ESM Res. Inst. Safety & Human Factors,  March 13, 2017 – Full paper submission  IDEKO Technology Centre, Spain  May 22, 2017 – Paper acceptance notification  TECNUN, Spain  TEKNIKER, Spain  June 5, 2017 - Camera-ready papers  CSIC, Spain  June 19, 2017 - Final program  HSE - Health & Safety Executive, UK Conference website:  Atkins Rails, UK http://idt.fri.uniza.sk ; http://idt.fri.uniza.sk/idt2017  W.S. Atkins, UK  Railway Safety, UK  Vega Systems, UK 1.4 Educational and Research Institutions ESRA Information  University of Innsbruck,  University of Natural Resources & Applied Life Sciences, Austria  AIT Austrian Institute of Techn. GmbH, Austria 1. ESRA Membership  Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium  University of Mining and Geology, 1.1 National Chapters  Czech Technical Univ. in Prague, Czech Republic  French Chapter  Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic  German Chapter  University of Defence, Czech Republic  Italian Chapter  Tallin Technical University,  Polish Chapter  Helsinki University of Technology,  Portuguese Chapter  École de Mines de Nantes, France  Spanish Chapter  Université Henri Poincaré (UHP), France  UK Chapter  Laboratoire d'Analyse et d'Architecture des 1.2 Professional Associations Systèmes (LAAS), France  The Safety and Reliability Society, UK  Université de Bordeaux, France  Danish Society of Risk Assessment,  Université de Technologie de Troyes, France  SRE Scandinavia Reliability Engineers, Denmark  Université de Marne-la-Vallée, France  ESReDA, France  INERIS, France  French Institute for Mastering Risk (IMdR-SdF),  Fern University, France  Technische Universität Muenchen, Germany  VDI-Verein Deutscher Ingenieure (ESRA  Technische Universität Wuppertal, Germany Germany), Germany  University of Kassel, Germany  The Netherlands Society for Risk Analysis and  TU Braunschweig, Germany Reliability (NVRB), The Netherlands  Institute of Nuclear Technology Radiation  Polish Safety & Reliability Association, Poland Protection,  Asociación Española para la Calidad, Spain  University of the Aegean, Greece 1.3 Companies  Universita di Bologna (DICMA), Italy  TAMROCK Voest Alpine, Austria  Politecnico di Milano, Italy  IDA Kobenhavn, Denmark  Politecnico di Torino, Italy  VTT Industrial Systems, Finland  Universita Degli Studi di Pavia, Italy  Bureau Veritas, France  Universita Degli Studi di Pisa, Italy  INRS, France  Technical University of Delft, The Netherlands  Total, France  Institute for Energy Technology, Norway  Commissariat á l'Energie Atomique, France  Norwegian Univ. Science & Technology, Norway  DNV, France  University of Stavanger, Norway  Eurocopter Deutschland GMbH, Germany  Technical University of Gdansk, Poland  GRS, Germany  Gdynia Maritime Academy, Poland  SICURO, Greece  Institute of Fundamental Techn. Research, Poland  VEIKI Inst. Electric Power Res. Co., Hungary  Technical University of Wroclaw, Poland  Autostrade, S.p.A, Italy  Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal  D’Appolonia, S.p.A, Italy  Universidade de Coimbra, Portugal ESRA Newsletter June 2016 10  Universidade Nova de Lisboa - FCT, Portugal 3.2 Publications Standing Committee  Universidade de Minho, Portugal Chairman: C. Guedes Soares, Instituto Sup. Técnico,  Universidade do Porto, Portugal Portugal  University Politechnica of Bucharest, This committee has the responsibility of interfacing with  University of Iasi, Romania Publishers for the publication of Conference and Workshop  Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia proceedings, of interfacing with Reliability Engineering and  University of Trencin, Slovakia System Safety, the ESRA Technical Journal, and of  Institute “Jozef Stefan”, Slovenia producing the ESRA Newsletter.  Asociación Española para la Calidad, Spain  PMM Institute for Learning, Spain 4. Technical Committees  Universidad D. Carlos III de Madrid, Spain Methodologies  Universidad de Extremadura, Spain 4.1 Accident and Incident modeling  Univ. de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain Chairman: Stig Johnsen, Norway & Nicola Paltrinieri,  Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain Norway  Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Spain E-mail: [email protected];  Institute de Matematica y Fisica Fundamental [email protected] (IMAFF), Spain 4.2 Economic Analysis in Risk Management  University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain Chairman: Eirik B. Abrahamsen, Norway  LuleåUniversity, Sweden E-mail: [email protected]  World Maritime University, Sweden 4.3 Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and  Institut f. Energietechnik (ETH), Management  Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland Chairman: Terje Aven, Norway & Enrico Zio, France  City University London, UK E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]  Liverpool John Moores University, UK 4.4 Human Factors and Human Reliability  University of Aberdeen, UK Chairman: Luca Podofillini, Switzerland & Chiara  University of Bradford, UK Leva, Ireland  University of Salford, UK E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]  University of Strathclyde, Scotland, UK 4.5 Maintenance Modeling and Applications 1.5 Associate Members Chairman: Christophe Bérenguer, France & Mitra  Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil Fouladirad, France  Fluminense Federal University, Brazil E-mail: [email protected];  Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Brazil [email protected]  European Commission - DR TREN (Transport and 4.6 Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Energy), in Safety  Vestel Electronics Co., Turkey Chairman: John Andrews, UK & Nicolae Brinzei, France 2. ESRA Officers E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Chairman 4.7 Prognostics and System Health Management Terje Aven ([email protected]) Chairman: Piero Baraldi, Italy & Enrico Zio, France University of Stavanger, Norway E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Vice-Chairman 4.8 Resilience Engineering Radim Bris ([email protected]) Chairman: Ivonne Herrera, Norway & Eric Rigaud, Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic France General Secretary E-mail: [email protected]; Coen van Gulijk ([email protected]) [email protected] University of Huddersfield, UK 4.9 Risk assessment Chairman: Marko Cepin, Slovenia & Henrik Hassel, Treasurer Sweden Piero Baraldi ([email protected]) E-mail: [email protected]; Politecnico di Milano, Italy [email protected] Past Chairman 4.10 Risk Management Enrico Zio ([email protected]) Chairman: Lesley Walls, UK & David Valis, Czech Politecnico di Milano, Italy Republic & Marcelo Hazin, Brazil Chairmen of the Standing Committees E-mail: [email protected]; Antoine Grall, University of Technology of Troyes, France [email protected]; [email protected] C. Guedes Soares, Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal 4.11 Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis Chairman: Nicola Pedroni, France & Edoardo Patelli, 3. Standing Committees UK E-mail: [email protected]; 3.1 Conference Standing Committee [email protected] Chairman: A. Grall, University of Tech. of Troyes, France 4.12 Structural Reliability The aim of this committee is to establish the general policy Chairman: Jana Markova, Czech Republic & Martin and format for the ESREL Conferences, building on the Krejsa, Czech Republic experience of past conferences, and to support the E-mail: [email protected]; preparation of ongoing conferences. The members are one [email protected] leading organiser in each of the ESREL Conferences. 4.13 System Reliability

ESRA Newsletter June 2016 11 Chairman: Gregory Levitin, Israel & Serkan Eryilmaz, 4.21 Land Transportation Turkey Chairman: Olga Fink, Switzerland & Bob Huisman, E-mail: [email protected]; The Netherlands [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; 4.14 Uncertainty analysis [email protected] Chairman: Emanuele Borgonovo, Italy & Roger Flage , 4.22 Manufacturing Norway Chairman: Benoit Iung, France & François Peres, E-mail: [email protected]; France [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Application Areas - Technological Sectors 4.23 Maritime and Offshore technology 4.15 Aeronautics and Aerospace Chairman: Jin Wang, UK & Ingrid B. Utne, Norway & Chairman: Darren Prescott, UK Mario Brito, UK E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] 4.16 Chemical and Process Industry Chairman: Valerio Cozzani, Italy & Gabriele Landucci, 4.24 Natural Hazards Italy & Nima Khakzad, The Netherlands Chairman: Pieter van Gelder, The Netherlands & Bas E-mail: [email protected]; Kolen, The Netherlands [email protected]; [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 4.17 Civil Engineering Chairman: Raphael Steenbergen, The Netherlands 4.25 Nuclear Industry E-mail: [email protected] Chairman: Sebastian Martorell, Spain & Francesco Di Maio, Italy 4.18 Critical Infrastructures E-mail: [email protected]; Chairman: Giovanni Sansavini, Switzerland & Enrico [email protected] Zio, France E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 4.26 Occupational Safety Chairman: Ben Ale, The Netherlands & Reniers 4.19 Energy Genserik, Belgium Chairman: Michalis Christou, Belgium E-mail: [email protected]; E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] 4.20 Information Technology and 4.27 Security Telecommunications Chairman: Sissel H. Jore, Norway Chairman: Elena Zaitseva, Slovakia & Ralf Mock, E-mail: [email protected] Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

ESRA is a non-profit international organization for the advance and application of safety and reliability technology in all areas of human endeavour. It is an “umbrella” organization with a membership consisting of national societies, industrial organizations and higher education institutions. The common interest is safety and reliability. For more information about ESRA, visit our web page at http://www.esrahomepage.org. For application for membership of ESRA, please contact the general secretary Coen van Gulijk E- mail: [email protected]. Please submit information to the ESRA Newsletter to any member of the Editorial Board: Editor: Carlos Guedes Soares – [email protected] Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon

Editorial Board: Marko Cepin - [email protected] Ângelo Teixeira – [email protected] University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal Paul Ulmeanu - [email protected] Mitra Fouladirad – [email protected] Univ. Politechnica of Bucharest, Romania University of Technology of Troyes, France Jana Markova – [email protected] Dirk Proske – [email protected] Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic University of Natural Resources and Sofía Carlos - [email protected] Applied Life Sciences, Austria Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain Francesco Di Maio - [email protected] Joël Luyk - [email protected] Politecnico di Milano, Italy Soc. for Risk Analysis & Reliability, The Netherlands Igor Kozine – [email protected] Uday Kumar - [email protected] Technical University of Denmark, Denmark Luleå University of Technology, Sweden Sylwia Werbinska – [email protected] Zoe Nivolianitou – [email protected] Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland Demokritos Institute, Greece Eirik Albrechtsen – [email protected] Elena Zaitseva - [email protected] Norwegian University of Science Technology, Norway University of Žilina , Slovakia Luca Podofillini – [email protected] Matthew Revie - [email protected] Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland University of Strathclyde,

ESRA Newsletter June 2016 12