Amare and Simane Agric & Food Secur (2017) 6:64 DOI 10.1186/s40066-017-0144-2 Agriculture & Food Security RESEARCH Open Access Determinants of smallholder farmers’ decision to adopt adaptation options to climate change and variability in the Muger Sub basin of the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia Abayineh Amare* and Belay Simane Abstract Smallholder farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation options in response to climate change and variability are infu- enced by socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental factors, indicating that decision patterns can be very specifc to a given locality. The prime objective of this research is to identify factors afecting smallholder farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation options to climate change and variability in the Muger River sub-basin of the Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire, focused group discussions, and key informant interviews from 442 sampled households. Frequency, mean, Chi-square test, and one-way ANOVA were used for analysis. Furthermore, a multinomial logit model was employed to analyze the data. Results signifed that small-scale irrigation, agronomic practices, livelihood diversifcation, and soil and water conservation measures are the dominant adaptation options that smallholder farmers used to limit the negative impact of climate change and variability in the study area. The results further revealed that adoption of small-scale irrigation as an adaptation to climate change and variability is signifcantly and positively infuenced by access to credit, social capital, and the educational status of household heads. Greater distance to marketplace and size of farmland negatively afected the use of agronomic practices, whereas crop failure experience and access to early warning systems have a positive infuence. The results also point out that adoption of soil and water conservation measures are positively afected by exposure to early warning systems, greater distance to the marketplace, and larger size of cultivated land. It is also noted that livelihood diversifcation is negatively infuenced by socioeconomic factors such as education, the gender of the household head, and livestock ownership. Overall, the results suggested that improved policies aimed at increasing the adoption of adaptation options to ofset the impact of climate change and variability should focus on: creating efective microfnance institutions and efective early warning systems, increasing farmer awareness, improving infrastructure, and encouraging farmers’ membership to many social groups. The results further suggested that agroecological and gender-based research should be promoted and increased for a more holistic understanding of farmer adaptation options. Keywords: Adoption, Adaptation options, Determinant, Climate change Background [1–4]. Empirical studies show that climate change and Climate change is expected to have signifcant adverse variability already place a heavy burden on smallholder efects on agricultural production in Africa, in particular, farmers, and their livelihoods will be further threatened due to the continent’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture by ongoing climate change [5–7]. Like most African countries, Ethiopia is frequently identifed as a country that is highly vulnerable to cli- *Correspondence: [email protected] Centre for Environment and Development, College of Development mate variability and change [8–10]. Te agriculture sec- Studies, Addis Ababa University, p.o.box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia tor has been playing a very signifcant role in providing © The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/ publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. Amare and Simane Agric & Food Secur (2017) 6:64 Page 2 of 20 food, employment, and income to the majority of people So far, there is only a study specifc to the Nile River in Ethiopia. It accounts for about 42.9% of gross domes- Basin that investigates factors afecting the choice of tic product (GDP), 80% of employment, and 88% of adaptation methods [32]. Although the study by Deressa export earnings [11]. However, climate change remains et al. [32] provides important information, it is limited the major challenge to the development of agriculture to an analysis of crop production systems and does not and food security [12]. Despite its high contribution to take into account the dramatic spatial heterogeneity (i.e., the overall economy, the sector is inherently sensitive to in soil qualities, steepness of slopes, and access to infra- climate climate-related disasters like drought and food structure), socioeconomic, and environmental diversity. and is among the most vulnerable sectors to the risks and Tus, there is limited scientifc evidence on which to impacts of global climate change [13]. Studies indicate base feasible development policy interventions, although that Ethiopian agriculture is characterized by a low use of these are urgently necessary to strengthen efective adap- external inputs and it is highly vulnerable to climate vari- tation measures that can be implemented by smallholder ability and change [10, 14–17]. Te impact on agriculture farmers and help them to reduce food insecurity. Tus, is manifested by increasing incidence of foods, droughts, an understanding of the determinants of a household and unpredictable rainfall [18, 19] and has resulted in decision to adopt a particular adaptation strategy among food shortage and famine in the past [20–23], and they the available choices is crucial to provide insights and continue to pose a serious threat to Ethiopia’s develop- identify target variables that enhance the use of adapta- ment [12]. tion strategies. In this context, the results of the study Because of the huge contribution of agriculture to can potentially provide an informed basis on which pol- Ethiopian’s economy and its high susceptibility to climate icy recommendations can be drawn from these insights change and climate-related extreme events–droughts to facilitate the adoption of adaptation strategies at the and foods, it is important to study adaptation strategies local level so that the adverse impact of climate change to overcome the anticipated adverse impacts. It has been and variability on their livelihoods can be limited. recognized that adaptation to climate change and varia- Hence, the objectives of this study are to explore adap- bility is one of the policy agenda widely supported to help tation strategies used by smallholder farmers in response smallholder farmers to limit the negative efects of cli- to the adverse efects of climate change and variability mate change in this sector [24–26]. It has been noted that and to analyze factors that infuence smallholder farm- the existing support system determines diferences in ers’ decisions to adopt adaptation strategies in the Muger adaptation options to climate hazards among households River sub-basin of the Blue Nile River Basin. to households and region to region. Tere is considera- ble evidence that climate change holds back the progress Description of the study area of Ethiopian agriculture [27–29]. However, results from Biophysical setting these studies were inclusively focused on the impact of Muger sub-basin is part of the upper Blue Nile basin and climate change on agricultural production and produc- covers a total area of 8188 km2. Muger River fows from tivity and suggested adaptation strategies, but failed to the southeast of the basin into upper Blue Nile basin. address the driving forces that determine household’s Te altitude in Muger sub-basin ranges between 953 and choices of adaptation options. Tis presents an important 3550 masl. Te highlands in the eastern and southern limitation since farmers’ responses to climate change or part of the sub-basin are higher in altitude, greater than their choice of adaptation strategies have been dictated 2600 m up to 3550 m. Te lowlands along the Muger by a host of environmental and socioeconomic factors. River have lower altitude less than 1700 masl [33]. Furthermore, studies have been undertaken to analyze Te sub-basin has an annual rainfall that varies the impact of climate change and factors afecting the between 833 and 1326 mm. Lower annual rainfall rang- choice of adaptation methods in mono-crop and mixed ing from 833 mm up to 1000 mm is observed along the crop production system in Africa at the regional level [25, river and lowlands. Relatively high rainfall is recorded in 30, 31]. Te aggregate nature of these studies, however, the highlands of the sub-basin. Te annual maximum and makes it very difcult to provide insights in identifying minimum temperature of the sub-basin varies between country-specifc impacts and adaptation methods given 16–31.5 and 3–16.5 °C, respectively. Temperature is the heterogeneity of countries included. Diversity in higher along the river with a maximum of 28–31.5 °C and agroecological features, socioeconomic, institutional, and minimum of 13–16.5 °C. Te sub-basin is characterized