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Count on the Margin of Safety

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Count on the Margin of Safety Cover Story COUNT ON THE Times have changed since Benjamin Graham wrote the Security Analysis but his principles can hold investors in good stead even now N Mahalakshmi & Mohammed Ekramul Haque t cannot be denied that the Great safety’, allowing for any contraction in grabbed the attention of several pro- Depression of 1929 and the Wall prices, were his key bets. fessional investors, many of who have Street crash that followed was per- His strategy soon started being talk- added their own perspectives over the Ihaps the most humbling experi- ed about in the investing community. following decades. Nevertheless, the ence for investors at the time. Life was One man, in particular, was highly in- basic essence of value investing has tough and there was no hope to clutch fl uenced by Graham’s strategy, and remained the same: buy cheap. on to. After crushing losses, most in tribute to his ‘idol’, bought shares It was a philosophy that was born stocks were available at ridiculously in about a hundred such cheap com- in desperate times (the Depression cheap prices over the next decade as panies. His faith soon paid off: in fi ve years), and underwent a baptism by the markets remained trapped in a years, John Templeton – whose name fi re as it was tested time and again over bear grip. today is synonymous with value the next few years. But as any stock expert will tell you investing – had multiplied his So it wouldn’t be wrong to wonder today, behind every market disaster original investment several times, just a little bit whether those princi- lurks opportunity – if you just look despite around 15 of those companies ples still work in today’s times, given hard enough. It was the same for Ben- going bankrupt. that the past few years have been ex- jamin Graham, who, despite suffering The value investing philosophy pro- ceptionally exuberant for the world’s heavy fi nancial losses himself, began pounded by Graham and practised major stock markets. a conscious campaign of snapping up vigorously by Sir John Templeton was Cut to January 2008. In sharp con- stocks that suddenly became available eventually perfected into an investing trast to the crisis engulfi ng the stock at bargain prices. technique that called on investors to markets when Graham started out, the Graham’ strategy was simple: buy buy stocks cheap – so cheap that there world’s economies – India’s included companies that he likened to cigar was very little chance of the stock fall- – were exuding confi dence like never butts – typically abandoned but still ing any further (thus avoiding any loss before. Many experts claimed that In- good for a puff or two. And you could of capital). dian fi nancial markets were experi- pick them up for virtually nothing. After Graham articulated his encing a secular bull run, not a cyclical Stocks quoting below their liquida- thoughts on the subject in the book Se- upswing that would die down anytime tion values after keeping a ‘margin of curity Analysis in 1934, value investing soon. 41 13 June 2008 Outlook PROFIT Cover Story as bits of bad news kept leaking out The world has changed in many HOW WE DID THE BACK-TESTING at a steady pace. Investors who had ways. And the way business is done The universe bought stocks at steep valuations now has changed appreciably. In the past began to understand just how foolish century, while industrialisation was Earnings yield portfolio: A portfolio of 30 stocks with the highest earnings yields, the their actions were, not to mention the still underway, manufacturing was the minimum cut-off being double the bond rate for the respective year, from the BSE- speculators who had joined in for the mainstay of business and companies 500 universe, excluding fi nancials, with a debt-equity of less than 1. For years that free ride. were largely asset-heavy. threw up less that 30 stocks, we went with the available stocks. Value investors had seen this coming Today’s businesses are more ser- all along. At a lecture in India on Janu- vice-led and asset-light. Even the Net-nets & cash bargains: All listed companies with a trading history of more than 90 ary 8, Bruce Greenwald, renowned fi - landscapes for accounting practices, per cent excluding fi nancials was taken as the universe. We calculated net-nets by nance professor at Columbia Business securities regulations and sharehold- deducting debt and current liabilities from current assets. The 30 or available stocks School, referred to stocks markets as ing patterns are dramatically differ- for the respective years with market-cap less than net currents were considered ‘being expensive’. At the time, stocks ent. Graham’s success was also in part were actually peaking out. Greenwald because he had the luxury of buying for the portfolio each year. Companies with cash and marketable securities less teaches the ‘Graham and Dodd’ style businesses that were truly ‘cigar butts’ all external liabilities greater than the market-cap constituted the cash bargain of investing in the university Graham because of the state of the economy at portfolio for the respective years. graduated from. the time. Dogs of the Nifty: Top 10 stocks based on dividend yield at the end of every year. Value investing is not about predict- Is Graham’s philosophy still stay rel- ing when markets will hit their peaks. evant in the changed times, (one of The returns Graham (and today’s value investors optimism, although recent data does We computed total returns (price appreciation plus dividend income) for the agree) emphasised the preservation point to a slowdown) compared with portfolio constituted every year and with a holding period of 1-10 years for the of capital as the bedrock of investing. the gloom that the Father of Financial period 1998-2008. For dogs of the Nifty we tested results only for a two-year holding “The beauty is, as Graham said, any- Analysis was witness to? Outlook Prof- thing bought cheap will invariably go it sought answers for this by relying period. In the case of a stock getting delisted or stopped trading, we considered the up in price,” says Chetan Parikh, a two factors: data, because data does stock to have lost 100 per cent in the year in which the stock disappeared from the successful Indian value investor and not lie; and people who have been un- portfolio. All data has been sourced from CMIE Prowess. managing director of Mumbai-based adulterated value investors. Jeetay Investments. Before we disclose the results There is one difference though. (please wait patiently – being patient Besides, stock prices were catapult- covering almost immediately after What Graham considered bargains is the fi rst rule in value investing!), we ing and there was what seemed like a every tumble. and what today’s value investors con- present a quick look at Graham’s never-ending fl ood of foreign money And investors continued to buy into sider as cheap (and we are not talking various strategies. pouring in. For fi ve straight years till stocks, whatever the price. about growth-style investors who do January this year, the Sensex proved Then, the inevitable happened. Glob- not mind paying a high premium for THE PHILOSOPHY the sceptics wrong at every level as it al markets nosedived and over the stellar growth prospects) are separated Graham’s investment radar mainly rapidly scaled new all-time highs, re- next few months, continued to plunge by time. fl ashed stocks that could be classifi ed as bargains based on earnings poten- CASH BARGAINS PORTFOLIO tial or asset values. The key earnings-based strategy that Portfolio consists of stocks with cash and marketable securities greater than market cap most lay investors can easily adopt in- year 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 4 yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 yr 8 yr 9 yr 10 yr Latest volves buying stocks that offer a sub- Portfolio 1998 56.30 13.47 -45.88 -22.24 -12.96 2.03 5.98 15.41 10.65 8.68 8.42 stantial earnings yield, typically, twice the prevailing bond rate. Sensex 1998 -17.00 7.82 -4.23 -4.46 -5.88 5.91 6.32 14.75 14.80 15.74 14.78 The earnings yield is the reverse of Portfolio 1999 196.20 -25.04 -15.97 -14.89 4.01 24.82 25.87 21.03 25.39 26.24 the price-earnings multiple. The logic Sensex 1999 40.05 2.87 0.12 -2.87 11.20 10.80 20.18 19.55 20.10 18.92 is simple: if you view stocks as bonds Sanjay Bakshi , CEO, Tactica Capital is a deep-value investor Portfolio 2000 -45.69 -37.70 -3.11 6.55 19.24 19.65 18.05 29.14 28.81 that offer no growth but yield fi xed re- turns (consider profi ts as a proxy for in- Sensex 2000 -24.44 -15.34 -14.03 4.97 5.73 17.15 16.87 17.81 16.56 terest earned) then the asset should be Portfolio 2001 -13.43 -3.30 31.75 53.64 66.82 63.88 74.19 77.32 valued like a bond. If the earnings yield Sensex 2001 -5.14 -8.29 17.13 15.00 27.90 25.69 25.53 23.83 is twice the bond yield, it means that stantial discount to the company’s as- Portfolio 2002 -2.98 39.67 73.51 86.98 76.96 84.35 84.91 the asset actually promises to double set value (for businesses that boast Sensex 2002 -11.33 30.16 22.62 37.82 32.96 31.53 29.30 the returns you could get from hold- good future prospects).
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