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Sir John Templeton's Investment Bible U.S. Dividend Stock Investing for Canadian Investors Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible 1 Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible A Step-by-Step Guide from One of History’s Most Successful Investors The Timeless Wisdom of Sir John Templeton My favorite investor of all-time, and the one that most influenced my investing style, is Sir John Templeton (1912-2008). He may be gone, but he will always be remembered as one of the greatest investors ever. In 1999, Money Magazine called Sir John Templeton “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century.” I believe it is useful for every investor to learn about his classic rags-to-riches story and his 16 rules for investment success (published in 1993) that were centered on buying stocks cheap (being a contrarian) and looking globally (go where others fear to tread). John Templeton's Background & Early Career Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible John Templeton was born November 29, 1912 to a poor family in Tennessee. Yet, he died a knighted billionaire. Templeton attended Yale University and graduated in 1934 near the top of his class with a degree in economics. Since his family was poor, he financed part of his tuition by playing poker, a game at which he excelled. Templeton then went on to Oxford University in the U.K. as a Rhodes Scholar and graduated with a M.A. in law. After getting his degree at Oxford, he returned to the U.S. and worked for a while at Fenner & Beane, a forerunner of Merrill Lynch. But then, in the depths of the Depression, Templeton founded his own firm that became Templeton, Dobbrow & Vance. It was the start of World War II when John Templeton showed everyone what type of investor he was. The start of the war had most investors running for shelter. But not him… Templeton, using a borrowed $10,000, purchased shares in 104 U.S. companies. Only four of those companies turned out to be worthless and the remainder returned to him a total of $40,000, which is roughly $700,000 in today's dollars ! Kon'nichiwa (Hello) Japanese Stocks John Templeton was the really the first to introduce the idea of investing globally to U.S. investors. He launched his flagship Templeton Growth Fund in 1954 when the thought of ever investing outside U.S. borders had never occurred to most Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible domestic investors. Here again, he showed his investing acumen… In the late 1950s, Templeton noticed how dirt cheap the Japanese stock market was. Post-war Japan was booming, yet few were investing into the country. It was the emerging market of its time. There were literally fast-growing Japanese companies selling for two or three times their earnings. In a 1959 letter to clients, Templeton was telling about companies like Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM), Matsushita Electric, which is now Panasonic (OTC: PCRFY) and Sanyo Electric, which is now also part of Panasonic, Sankyo Pharmaceuticals, which today is part of Daiichi Sankyo (OTC: DSNKY), and Riken Optical, which today is Ricoh (OTC: RICOY). By 1970, 60% of his fund's portfolio was in Japan. Many of these were tiny companies that no one ever heard of, showing that Templeton had no problem investing into small-cap stocks. Gradually, of course, everyone caught on to what a growth story Japan was. But Templeton was there first. And by the time the Japanese stock bubble peaked in 1989, he had little money there. Instead, Templeton was putting money to work in a little country with a recovering economy called the United States. He got out, of course, in the late 90s as internet mania began building into the dot-com bubble. Instead he got into global commodity stocks just before the commodity supercycle began (2000-2014). Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible It should not surprise you then Sir John's pioneering Templeton Growth Fund racked up an enviable track record, returning an average of 13.8% annually from 1954 to 2004 under his stewardship. Even though we are in 2017, many of Templeton's timeless investing principles apply as much today as back in 1954 when the Templeton Growth Fund was launched. Below are some of Templeton's principles which have shaped how I approach investing. I hope you can take some of Sir John's wisdom and incorporate it into your own investing style. Templeton's Investing Wisdom While Templeton said there was no set formula for picking stocks, there were four factors he almost always considered before buying a stock. These were: the price-to-earnings ratio, the consistency of a company's growth rate, its operating profit margins and its liquidation value. But two other principles were at the center of his investing philosophy, buying stocks on the cheap and going global. #1 – Buy Low. Obvious, right? But if you do so, you are almost automatically going against the crowd. Valuations for stocks are low when there is little demand for them from other investors. You will be a lonely contrarian as Sir John was at the start of WWII Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible and in Japan. Templeton always scoured the globe for bargains. He told investors to buy when everyone else is selling, when things look darkest, when all the experts say a certain investment is too risky. Templeton wrote “buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are avidly buying.” And “invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” He would often say, “People are always asking me where the outlook is good, but that's the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook most miserable? The obvious application of this concept in practice is to avoid following the crowd.” But in reality, many investors do the opposite. They chase hot sectors, even after dramatic moves higher. Think of the frenzy among investors in the period leading up to the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble in 2001. In the late 1990s, the Nasdaq index hit a p/e of 200, dwarfing the 80 p/e at the height of Japan's bubble. In 1999, shares of a baker's dozen of large-cap tech stocks soared by over 1,000%! Qualcomm rose over 2,600%! These people were apparently unaware of one of Templeton's rules for investment success: Invest – don't trade or speculate. His classic words were: “The stock market is not a casino.” In other words, hand-in-hand with value investing is investing for the long- term. Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible #2 – Diversify Globally. Sir John believed there was no one kind of investment that is always best. Although over the long-term, stocks do outperform other asset classes such cash and bonds. No one can predict the future. So if you're focused too much on one company or sector or country, events can happen that could devastate your portfolio. Sir John advised to diversify by risk, by industry and by country. He would say, “In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers.” Another way to put it is the old adage, “Don't put all your eggs in one basket.” A great example comes from a recent study from Charles Schwab, which looked at hypothetical $100,000 portfolios invested prior to two big market events – the bursting of the tech bubble and the 2008-09 financial crisis – and continuing to 2017. The portfolio consisting of only the S&P 500 index was worth about $230,000. The portfolio that had a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds was worth over $233,000. But best of all was the portfolio with global diversification which was worth $280,609. A quote from Sir John sums it up best - “See the investment world as an ocean and buy where you get the most value for your money.” #3 – Learn From Past Mistakes. Everyone makes mistakes investing, even Sir John. As he said, “the only way to avoid mistakes is to not invest – which is the biggest mistake of all.” Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible Templeton urged investors not to become discouraged. But he warned against taking even greater risks to try and recoup your loss all at once. Sir John believed that the difference between successful investors and those that are not is that successful investors learn from their mistakes and the mistakes of others. In other words, learn from history – your own and others' history. That leads to this true investing insight gem: Templeton wrote “the investor who says, “This time is different”, when in fact it's virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.” We humans do have the tendency of simply repeating the same mistakes of a past generation but without realizing it. #4 – Don't Just Buy and Hold. He would always say “the pace of change is too great” for a buy-and-hold strategy. That rings even more true today, with the technological advancements happening at an ever faster rate. Templeton advised investors to “expect and react to change” and to monitor their investments “aggressively”. And that “Everything is in a constant state of change, and the wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.” Sir John also warned investors to focus more on the stocks they were buying and not the market trend. He wrote, “All too many Sir John Templeton’s Investment Bible investors focus on the market trend or economic outlook.
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