Standard Missile-3 is launched from Pearl Harbor–based Aegis cruiser USS Lake Erie enroute to intercept as part of Missile Defense Agency test of sea-based capability under development, yet tactically certified and deployed with U.S. Navy, November 2007 (U.S. Navy) Expanding Zeus’s Shield A New Approach for Theater Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region By Kevin Ayers n September 17, 2009, President Missile Defense Report, the European Europe by 2015. Phase three, scheduled Barack Obama approved the Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) for 2018, would deploy more capable O creation of a “phased adap- was developed to provide guidance on systems against longer range Iranian tive approach” to European missile which and where certain ballistic missile missiles and have both a land- and sea- defense, at the recommendation of defense capabilities would be deployed based capability.3 The final phase was Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and to the European theater. According to canceled in 2013 but was rescheduled the Joint Chiefs of Staff.1 As outlined the overall plan, the approach would for deployment in the 2020 timeframe in the original White House 2009 be executed in four phases. The first and would have added defense capabil- press release and in the 2010 Ballistic phase protected southern Europe from ity against long-range ballistic missile attack from Iran with sea-based Aegis threats from the Middle East. Weapons Systems by 2011.2 Phase two In many ways, the European model is Kevin Ayers is Director of the Engagement focused on deploying land-based missile a unique situation. The components of a Division of the Commercial GEOINT Activity. defense capabilities to defend southern ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) 24 Forum / Expanding Zeus’s Shield JFQ 84, 1st Quarter 2017 have been developed by the United the range of the missile, this phase can core system for tracking incoming missile States and are being deployed within a be within the atmosphere—endo-atmo- raids is the AN/TPY-2 mobile radar, as longstanding multilateral security alliance. spheric—or outside the atmosphere— well as fixed terrestrial and space-based Other areas, like Southwest Asia or East exo-atmospheric. The Aegis Weapons assets. These sensors are integrated into Asia, lack such an alliance or even agree- System is primarily focused on short- to the global Command and Control, Battle ment on the utility of ballistic missile intermediate-range missiles in their mid- Management, and Communication defenses. Therefore, the phased adaptive course and terminal phases. (C2BMC) system. C2BMC ties together approach would require new diplomatic Aegis is a sea-based air defense system these BMDS capabilities into a coherent and security agreements for each region based on phased array radar technology whole with the ground-based, mid- to meet its unique requirements. In the and linked to missile interceptors with course defense system that is used for waning days of the Obama administra- advanced targeting seekers. The Aegis defending against limited intercontinental tion, no policy for how to deploy the Weapons System—named after the ballistic missile attack on the United BMDS in other regions has been clearly shield used by the god Zeus in Greek States. articulated. mythology—was originally deployed by While many countries around the To extend its protections to other the U.S. Navy in 1983 on Ticonderoga world have developed theater ballistic regions, the phased adaptive approach (CG-47)-class cruisers and Arleigh Burke missiles—including Iran and North should shift its focus from capability (DDG-51)-class destroyers.4 The system’s Korea, the countries against which the development to security alliance interop- interceptor, the Standard Missile (SM), BMDS is designed to defend—China’s erability development. The United States emerged from the Navy Theater Area sophistication in ballistic missile tech- continues to develop a multilayered Wide program in the 1990s as the SM-3.5 nology is second to none. In a BMD ballistic missile defense capability against The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) context, its history of regionally ranged long-range missile threats from the and the Japanese are developing the next missile proliferation and technolo- Middle East. The need in the East Asian generation of SM-3 interceptors, known gy-sharing would reasonably make its region, for example, is not to phase in as the Block IIA. regional-missile developments a primary a new BMDS capability but to create a Shorter range theater-based ballistic concern. According to the Department strong security alliance structure that can missile defense has focused on the final of Defense (DOD) 2015 annual report deploy and execute the ballistic missile phase of the missile’s trajectory, the to Congress, China has developed the defense mission. This will maintain terminal phase. Work on intercepting technology to hold maritime forces at an extended deterrence capability for shorter range systems stems back to significant threat through its land-, sea-, the United States and sustain regional 1949 with Project Pluto, which eventu- space-, cyber-, and electromagnetic-based security and stability. However, the key ally evolved into the Army Air Defense weapons; a significant portion of those challenge will be to incentivize Japan and System in the 1970s and the Phased threats come from China’s robust the- South Korea to join the United States Array Tracking Radar Intercept on Target ater and strategic ballistic missile force.7 in a new security alliance to effectively (PATRIOT) program in 1976.6 The China’s primary threat is regionally implement this approach. PATRIOT system made a name for itself based, though, and likely focused on when Iraqi Scud short-range ballistic mis- protecting what it views as its center of Introduction siles were fired at Saudi Arabia and Israel influence. Both Japan and South Korea A ballistic missile defense architecture during the Gulf War in 1991. While the have seen the need to protect themselves operates in three key phases. Ballistic new PATRIOT Advanced Capability–2 from China’s increasing theater ballistic missiles can be targeted before launch (PAC-2) interceptors demonstrated missile capability over the years, as its on the launcher. Once launched, the mixed results in intercepting the incom- aggressive moves in the South China Sea ballistic missile is under powered flight ing Scuds in their terminal phase, they have increased their concern. What would and considered to be in its boost phase. did highlight the requirement for theater entice Japan and South Korea to partner This phase will vary, depending on ballistic missile defense capabilities for with the United States in the BMDS? the size of the missile and how much Army units in the field. Current systems fuel and oxidizer it has to burn. If a such as the PAC-3 and Theater High- Developing Co-Production BMDS can intercept ballistic missiles Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems Incentives: An SM-3 either before they are launched or in provide a layered defense capability for Block IIA Case Study this boost or early intercept phase, the the terminal phase. THAAD is capable of If we assume that a trilateral security missile cannot deploy its countermea- intercepting ballistic missiles earlier in the alliance built around a BMDS provides sures. Once the ballistic missile has terminal phase at higher altitudes than enhanced security, technology, geo- achieved its engine or motor cut-off PAC-3 systems. graphic, and economic value to the point and is beginning to reach the Core to the success of any BMDS is United States, then there must be sig- apex of its ballistic arc, it has entered the ability to identify, track, target, and nificant incentives for Japan and South the mid-course phase. Depending on intercept ballistic missile threats. The Korea to agree to enter into such an alli- JFQ 84, 1st Quarter 2017 Ayers 25 ance. Both countries have demonstrated the United States was to create a two-way Mitsubishi Heavy Industries likely had at least an interest in U.S. BMDS, have technology transfer between Japanese the most experience in systems integra- existing bilateral security alliances with commercial and U.S. defense companies. tion, it also had a long history in dealing the United States, and have developed However, by that time, the United States with the United States in co-develop- defense industry relationships within was more interested in Japan developing ment, beginning with the FS-X aircraft the framework of each bilateral alliance. ballistic missile defense than the Japanese program in the 1980s.20 Therefore, by Therefore, creating a trilateral alliance government was for itself.12 2007, a memorandum of agreement be- for ballistic missile defense should be In 1998, the Japanese suffered what tween Lockheed Martin and Mitsubishi self-evident from these relationships. is known as the “Taepodong shock”; Heavy Industries for licensed production However, in fact, such an alliance has North Korea launched a developmental of the PAC-3s had been signed, PAC-3 not grown organically from the current long-range ballistic missile over Japan’s firing units purchased through foreign security environment. main island, Honshu.13 From that point military sales had been deployed, and Much of South Korea’s and Japan’s on, Japan’s public and government offi- the Aegis Weapons System along with preference for remaining in bilateral cials were acutely aware of the potential the SM Block I capability had been security alliances with the United States ballistic missile threat from North Korea purchased for $458 million.21 The next appears to originate from historical and actively sought a ballistic missile stage in this process was to create a more and diplomatic issues that have created shield. By December 2003, Japan had capable interceptor for the Japanese suspicion between the two countries.8 agreed to move from just research and to defend against longer-range North To create a trilateral security alliance, development with the United States Korean missiles.