Responding to Climate Change: Making Tree Planting Pay Permaculture Convergence IPEC, Pirenopolis Brazil 22 May 07 Albert Bates Global Village Institute for Appropriate Technology
This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License
1 What we will talk about
Problem Statement
Climate Change Peak Oil Toxic Timebombs Ecological Overshoot
Solution Statement
Making Money by Doing Good
This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License
2 Gore’s budget advice for presentations
Time
Complexity
Hope
3 TheThe FaFarmrm Planting Trees
The Farm was settled in 1971, on 415 ha. (4 km2), replacing a farmer and 75 cows with 320 hippies
4 The Farm Planting Trees
chip mills The Farm was settled at a time when the Southeastern forests were undergoing their third major removal, this time for pulp and paper.
5 TheThe FaFarmrm Planting Trees
1971
The Farm has gradually been acquiring forest land
6 TheThe FaFarmrm Planting Trees
1972
The Farm has gradually been acquiring forest land
7 TheThe FaFarmrm
1997 Planting Trees
1991
The Farm has gradually been acquiring forest land
8 TheThe FaFarmrm Planting Trees 2002
The Farm has gradually been acquiring forest land
9 Planting Trees
Our near- term goal: ecological restoration
10 TheThe FaFarmrm Planting Trees
The Farm in 2007 with 200 hippies (as yet no cows) is 2025 ha. (20 km2) and still growing ...
11 TheThe FaFarmrm Planting Trees
Our holistic goal: biodiversity
12 Climate Change TheThe FaFarmrm
Unanticipated: isotherm creep
13 Climate Change
• At the end of the last Ice Age, Spruce retreated from the Central U.S. to near its modern position in N.E. Canada. Oak expanded its range to cover all the U.S. east of the Mississippi.
• If they cannot make a migration to Northern Canada one hundred times faster now, the Eastern forests will simply vanish. Text
14 Climate Change
15 Climate Change
16 Climate Change
17 Climate Change
18 Climate Change
19 Climate Change
20 Climate Change
21 Climate Change
22 Climate Change
ClimateClimate ChangeChange
Source: Bates, Climate in Crisis (1990)
23 Climate Change
20°C
18°C You are here 17°C
16°C
1900 2000 2100
Source: Bates, Post-Petroleum Survival Guide (2006)
24 Climate Change
Arctic Sea Ice Greenland Ice Sheet Saharan Vegetation Amazon Rainforest Dieback ENSO El Niño West Antarctic Ice Sheet Deep Antarctic Current Atlantic Thermohaline Permafrost and Tundra Melt Indian Monsoon West African Monsoon Oceanic Acidity Methane Upwelling Source: Bates, Post-Petroleum Survival Guide (2006) 25 Climate Change Key Findings IPCC-4 - Holdren Group - Pentagon - Lynas - Lovelock
IPCC-3 (2001) understated the risk
It is possible we could see a 6.4°C increase by 2100
Exceeding 2 - 2.5°C above 1750 levels would entail intolerable impacts (ie: risk of human extinction) due to tipping points
We are already 1°C above 1750 levels
The observed rate of warming is accelerating
There is no guarantee that stopping all carbon emissions now would halt the rise of temperature
26 What is wrong with these statements?
“We have 20 years to turn this around.”
“Sustaining life on Earth is an imperative of Nature.”
27 28 1°C Increase - Right Now Ice-free sea absorbs more heat and accelerates global warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's surface; low-lying coastlines flooded; hurricanes increase; droughts 2°C Increase - the Age of Loneliness South Europe dies of heatstroke; Amazon ravaged by fire; stressed plants beginning to emit carbon rather than absorbing it; a third of all species go extinct
29 3°C Increase Carbon release from vegetation and soils speeds global warming; death of the Amazon rainforest; super-hurricanes hit coastal cities; starvation in Africa 4°C Increase Runaway thaw of permafrost makes global warming unstoppable; much of Britain made uninhabitable by severe flooding; Mediterranean region abandoned
30 5°C Increase Methane from ocean floor accelerates global warming; ice gone from both poles; humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land 6°C Increase Life on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; only fungi survive ... possibly. 31 Climate Change
ThisThis isis notnot MarsMars
32 World Population
9 billion
6 billion
3 billion
1 billion
33 Cows
3.2 billion
2 billion
1 billion
.0.5 billion
34 Bacteria in bottle double
every minute
The bottle is full in one day
www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645 www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/
35 36 37 Global Ecological Balance Sheet (in global hectares/person, 2003 data)
38 Lifeboat Strategy
39 Peak Oil We stand at an unique historical moment.
40 Peak Oil
We stand at an unique historical moment.
Hairless Apes in Gasoline Crack of History? —Wm. H. Burroughs
41 Climax Peak Oil Industrial Compost-Modernism Modernism (Permaculture) Pre-industrial sustainable Future low energy culture sustainable culture
1000 1500 2000 2500 Yrs AD
after D. Holmgren, Permaculture (2002)
42 Peak Oil
HubbertHubbert:: • Since the tenets of our exponential-growth culture (such as a nonzero interest rate) are incompatible with a state of nongrowth, it is understandable that extraordinary efforts will be made to avoid a cessation of growth.
• Inexorable, however, physical and biological constraints must eventually prevail and appropriate cultural adjustments will have to be made.
M. King Hubbert June 4, 1974, to the Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs
43 Civilizations collapse.
PopulationPopulation wellwell aboveabove historicallyhistorically stablestable levelslevels PoliticalPolitical corruptioncorruption andand mindlessmindless intriguesintrigues TooToo manymany farmers,farmers, tootoo manymany crops,crops, tootoo muchmuch ofof thethe landscapelandscape employedemployed inin productionproduction——soilsoil fertilityfertility crashcrash DeforestationDeforestation andand desertificationdesertification ClimateClimate changechange oror extremeextreme ofof regionalregional climateclimate pendulumpendulum DiminishedDiminished resilienceresilience toto naturalnatural disasterdisaster IncreasedIncreased migration/fightingmigration/fighting inin searchsearch ofof resourcesresources DiseaseDisease andand pestilencepestilence PopulationPopulation crashcrash
44 Ticking Time Bombs
Chemical plants & refineries in a reduced-regulation environment
Nuclear wastes, reactors, and components
Bioweaponry, and accidental runaway genes
Super-viruses and bacteria
Financial derivatives and currency collapse
Cowboys in government
45 Climate Change + Peak Oil + Toxic Timebombs + Population Explosion
= Planetary Life Disaster
We do not have 20 years
46 Solutions
Carbon Sequestration by Biome Type tons per acre/yr
Source: Bates, Climate in Crisis (1990) Solutions
48 Scale of forest loss
Step 1. reverse deforestation of the Amazon Solutions
49 Making Tree-Planting Pay
Private Donations / Websites
Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
Partnering with Major Organizations
Agroforestry / Mycoforestry Solutions
50 Private Donations / Websites Solutions
51 a i t pa g/ r o . k r o tw e .fiohn www Solutions
52 a i t pa g/ r o . k r o tw e .fiohn www Solutions
53 www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/corp/environment/ Solutions
54 www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/corp/environment/ Solutions
55 Solutions
56 Solutions
57 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
In 2005, the European Union introduced a Europe-wide market in carbon dioxide emissions for major greenhouse gas emitting industries.
This is the forerunner to a similar system that will operate under the Kyoto Protocol among its signatories after 2008. The EU ETS is designed to prepare European nations for Kyoto. Solutions
58 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading m t .h cdm / y g r e en g/ r o . dp n u . www Solutions
59 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
The scheme is based on the allocation of greenhouse gas emission allowances, called EU Allowances (EUAs), to specific industrial sectors through national allocation plans (NAPs) with oversight by the European Commission (EC).
These allowances can be traded.
The first phase of the EU ETS covers the period 2005-2007, while the second phase coincides with the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period, from 2008 to 2012.
The first phase of the EU ETS applies to 7,300 companies and 12,000 installations in heavy industrial sectors in the EU. These include: energy utilities, oil refineries, iron and steel producers, the pulp and paper industry as well as producers of cement, glass, lime, brick and ceramics. Solutions
60 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
Carbon markets traded $30 billion worth of greenhouse gas emission reductions around the world in 2006, an almost three- fold increase on the previous year’s $11 billion
Another $5 billion was traded in carbon offset credits under the Kyoto Protocol’s schemes, in return for clean technology transfer to the developing world and former Soviet bloc. Most of this was under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), where companies and countries in the industrialised world pay for emission reducing projects in the developing world, so far mainly China and India.
CDM trade in 2006 was double that of 2005.
A large proportion of these carbon credits, CERs and ERUs, flow back to European investors where they can be substituted for EUAs under EU ETS. Japan is the other major source of
demand for CERs. Solutions
61 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading In volume terms, 466 million tonnes changed hands in the CDM market in 2006. One billion tonnes of emission reductions will flow from projects approved and underway while another one billion tonnes is expected to flow by 2012 from projects in the pipeline, the end of the Kyoto commitment period.
There were 1.1 billion tonnes of EUAs exchanged on the EU market. But much of the EU trade was secondary trade where EUAs are changing hands a number of times as companies liable under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and financial market speculators buy and sell. Solutions
62 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
The voluntary carbon market, largely unregulated and not operating to the same verification standards as the mandatory EU and Kyoto markets, in 2006 traded an estimated 400 million tonnes of carbon credits for emission reductions, known as VERs.
This high-potential voluntary segment, however, lacks a generally acceptable standard, which remains a significant reputation risk not only to its own prospects, but also to the rest of the market, including the segments of regulated emissions trading and project offsets. Solutions
63 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
Qualifying to sell credits is complicated
... and expensive. Solutions
64 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
This part of the lecture has been known to put some people to sleep... Solutions
65 Government / UN / Kyoto Carbon Trading
... but it is still possible to dream. Solutions
66 t e n . e v i t si o np rbo a c . www Solutions
67 Partnering with Major Organizations m o c . l a tr eu nn rbo a c . www Solutions
68 Partnering with Major Organizations m o c . l a tr eu nn rbo a c . www Solutions
69 Partnering with Major Organizations m o c . l a tr eu nn rbo a c . www Solutions
70 Partnering with Major Organizations g/ r o . ts f s e ea r o el anf l_r c a i r ob e gl .am www Solutions
71 Partnering with Major Organizations fr . l na io t na r e t nf-in o . www Solutions
72 Partnering with Major Organizations g r o . t is .t www Solutions
73 Partnering with Major Organizations g r o . t is .t www Solutions
74 Partnering with Major Organizations g r o . t is .t www Solutions
75 Agroforestry / Mycoforestry
Food crops Timber crops Shade crops Energy crops Value-added products Solutions
76 Agroforestry / Mycoforestry Solutions
77 Agroforestry / Mycoforestry
78 Agroforestry / Mycoforestry
www.mushroompeople.com Solutions
79 Solutions
80 Solutions
81 To reverse climate change: Hold water in the landscape Build soil Plant trees; seed fungi Halt and reverse desertification Make rain Solutions
82 Linearity
83 Hope
Rest assured, there is enough land to produce solar energy in many forms, including alcohol, for a world that makes energy- efficient design a priority…. The key to the success of that long-term experiment is permaculture. — David Blume
www.permaculture.com
84 www.permaculture.com
85 Hope
86 “Don’t ask if there is a conspiracy at work. If you are not in one, start one.” — Catherine Austin Fitts Coping with Catastrophe
– Water & Sanitation – Food Growing – Food Preservation – Civil Organization – Shelter – Medical – Money & Trade – Security & Nonviolence – Quality of Life – Population
This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License
www.i4at.org institute for appropriate technology
87