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Due Diligence and Valuation Report Arrowhead Code: 27-01-01 Company: Reed Resources Ltd Coverage initiated: 21 April 2011 This document: 6 July 2011 Ticker: ASX:RDR Fair share value bracket: AU$2.608 to AU$1.974i Headquarters: Perth, Australia Share price on date: AU$0.475ii Executive Chairman: David John Reed Analyst Thomas Renaud Website: http://www.reedresources.com [email protected] +1 (212) 619 6889 vertically integrate via the acquisition or Market Data- construction of a lithium carbonate production 52-Week Range: AU$$0.44 – AU$$0.78iii plant to enhance project returns. The start of Average Daily Volume: 765,675iv mining and production of lithium concentrates will Market Cap. on date: AU$ 125.75MMv provide a steady revenue stream to the group. This project is well advanced. Financial Forecast Data (in AS $) VANADIUM: Reed’s management consider ‘11E ‘12E ‘13E ‘14E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E Barrambie Vanadium (39.7Mt of ore grading High 0.82% vanadium pentoxide (V2O5)) a priority profit/ (8.9) (13.3) 122.8 135.0 135.0 139.2 147.8 project. The company has a Memorandum of (loss) MM Understanding (MoU) with NFC of China for a High EPS fixed price engineering procurement and (3.4) (5.0) 46.1 51.0 51.0 52.6 55.8 cents construction contract (EPC). The project is in the Approvals and Financing stage with the aim of Low bringing online a mine with an annual capacity of profit/ (8.9) (20.4) 80.6 88.0 88.4 92.5 97.0 (loss) MM 11,200 tons of V2O5, a mine life of 12 years. Low EPS Underpinned by gold: (3.0) (7.7) 30.5 33.2 33.4 35.0 36.6 cents GOLD: In FY11, the company acquired the 2.5Moz Meekatharra Gold Project for AU$28M, including a Fiscal Year (FY) 3Mtpa mill, offices and accommodation. It is in 1st July – 30th June the Feasibility Study stage and has announced a number of resource up grades supporting its Summary investment strategy (refer later). Recently, the Reed Resources Ltd (“Reed” or “The Company”) is company announced settlement of Meekatharra a diversified natural resources company with project and commencement of a Reverse assets in Australia. Its core assets are twofold: Circulation (RC) and diamond core drill program. firstly major new age battery inputs of Lithium Summary view: and Vanadium and secondly significant gold assets. Given due diligence and valuation estimations based on discounted cash flow method, New Age Battery Inputs: Arrowhead believes that Reed’s fair share value LITHIUM: The Mt Marion lithium asset is held 70% lies between AU$1.974 to AU$2.608.vi It is based by Reed with the remainder held by major on the three projects namely Meekatharra gold Australian natural resources player Mineral project, Barrambie vanadium project and Mt Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) (MRL). The venture Marion lithium project. It is a conservative partners expect to commence operations at Mt estimate and discounts the potential value of the Marion by late 2011 with a capacity of 200,000 company’s other projects such as Finnerty and tons per annum of 6% Li2O concentrate Comet Vale. (Spodumene). Reed is evaluating plans to Reed Resources – Arrowhead BID 1 ASX:RDR Due Diligence and Valuation Report See important disclosures on page 31 of this report. Detailed Company Information Reed Resources is a diversified natural resources group headed by people vastly experienced in mining, finance and project management. Reed Resources’ asset portfolio includes: Mt Marion (lithium project) Mt. Marion has estimated reserves of 10.5Mt of lithium ore, and Reed Resources plans an initial production capacity of 200,000 Tpa of 6% Li2O. Reed Resources is fully-funded in the JV by operator Mineral Resources Limited. Reed Resources holds 70% equity interest in the JV. Mt Marion is undergoing further resource exploration and the company expects to complete wet commissioning of the plant by 15 December 2011. Mt Marion will be the world’s second largest source of lithium concentrates. The partners are evaluating a plan to enhance the project returns by down-streaming into the production of lithium concentrates, via acquisition, joint venture or construction. Barrambie (Vanadium project) Barrambie is Australia’s highest grade vanadium reserve (39.7Mt of 0.82 % V2O5) with substantial potential to expand. Reed Resources plans an initial production capacity of 11,200 tonnes of V2O5, with nominal mine life of 12 years. New capital and operating cost estimates are due at the end of June 2011 as part of a MoU with Chinese engineering conglomerate, NFC, for a fixed price engineering procurement and construction contract (EPC) and project financing assistance. Meekatharra project (gold project) Meekatharra is estimated to hold 2.7Moz of gold resources (up 8% since acquisition) and 560Koz of reserves on which the company is completing a Bankable Feasibility Study to initially produce at circa 120,000 oz per annum from December Quarter 2012, at an estimated capex of between AU$40-60M. The company continues to re-optimize the resource inventory and is commencing drilling to define further open-pittable resources within close proximity of its 3Mtpa processing plant 15km south of Reed Resources – Arrowhead BID 2 ASX:RDR Due Diligence and Valuation Report See important disclosures on page 31 of this report. Meekatharra. The company announced a RC and diamond core drill program to target resource extensions, and also to test extensions to mineralization. Other assets In addition to the above projects the company has other projects which are in early stage and the company is in the process of evaluating the future potential from these assets. Other projects include Mt. Finnerty and Comet Vale. The Comet Vale gold project was in production until last year but is under maintenance and care from June 2010. For more detail on Assets see Assets and Projects section of this report. Reed Resources’ portfolio and company premiums Asset Diversification Reed resource is a diversified resource group, with vanadium, lithium, gold, nickel and iron assets in its portfolio. The diversity gives the company a lower product-specific risk overall. Valuation Reed Resources’ lithium resource has a grade of 1.3% Li2O while Galaxy Resources Ltd, one of its closets peers in lithium mining has a grade of 1% Li2O, and Talison has mineral grade of 3% Li2O. The company will start lithium concentrate production in FY2011. Integrated developer Galaxy Resources Limited’s market capitalization is AU$1.52 per unit of lithium carbonate equivalent (“LCE”) contained in production, concentrate only producer, Talison, is at AU$0.71 per unit of contained LCE . Given Reed’s assets and its association with MRL, its valuation should be between Talison and Galaxy. Experienced Management Team The company’s management has diverse experience in mining, geosciences, financing and project management. The Company has to date developed a small high-grade underground gold mine, which remains an asset, and a history of acquiring underappreciated assets from distressed public companies and cash starved privateers . David and Chris Reed head the executive, who along with Mr. Craig Fawcett GM of the gold division and Bill Crossley, Group Engineer, are tasked to drive the resource exploration, evaluation and development of this multi-commodity resource house. The company historically defrays risk by seeking partnerships with established players in mining to speed up the development and monetization of its assets. MRL is developing Reed’s lithium asset while foreign players such as NFC would likely finance and manage the vanadium project. Reed’s traditional skill set is in gold and the company is currently building up a dedicated in-house technical team tasked to take the gold project through to production. Reed Resources’ Portfolio and Company Risks There are significant risks associated with the financing of the larger projects, for example Vanadium project would require a capex of +AU$500M. Since the company has recently raised AU$40M of equity and has minimal revenue stream, it would be difficult for the company to arrange this quantum of capital. The financial risk a large vanadium financing would introduce over the holdings of two relatively lower risk assets (gold and lithium) raises the question of quarantining this into a separate entity, potentially with Li, and we understand the Company is working to this risk mitigation strategy. The company is at a very early stage. Most of its projects are in the development stage with lithium project to come online by end CY11. The company depends on MRL to develop the lithium mine, as it has minimal lithium core competencies. Any delay in financing or the project implementation would hurt its valuation. The company is entering and financing the projects when the price of lithium and gold are at its peak and future price changes would determine the viability of its ventures. Reed Resources – Arrowhead BID 3 ASX:RDR Due Diligence and Valuation Report See important disclosures on page 31 of this report. Reed Resources’ Corporate Strategy Reed Resources is well aware of risk mitigation and being a diversified group with assets in Lithium, Vanadium and Gold. It is or considering developing its non-gold assets with established mining players. This strategy aims to minimize operational and financing risk. It has taken the following steps to attain the strategy. - Increase value to shareholders by expanding defined resource resources and establishing production pathway’s for each of its existing assets. - It is pursuing JVs and partnerships to speed up the implementation of the projects. It holds lithium reserves at Mt Marion, where MRL has agreed to construct a mining plant and manage production in exchange for 30% equity stake in the project.
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