contents

CONTENTS

3/2020

Issued Quarterly Since 2003

Editor-in-Chief Zarema Shaukenova Assel Nazarbetova Fighting the Covid-19 Pandemic: Head of the Department of International Studies of KazISS Kazakhstan’s Experience, Approaches, Measures, and Solutions...... 7 Editor AnastassIYa ReShetnyak Senior Research Fellow of KazISS Nabizhan Muhametkhanuly Amanzhan Arzykulov Responsible for publication: Almas Arzikulov Development of the Cooperation between Layout: Valeriy Glukhov Kazakhstan and China on Production Capacity...... 15

LLC «Delta Consulting Group» Translation by Aidana Akessina Address: Kazakhstan Institute Kazakhstan’s Border Policy as a Basis for Strategic Studies under the President for Ensuring Inter-Ethnic Harmony...... 23 of the Republic of Kazakhstan 4, Beybitshilik St. Nur-Sultan, 010000, Republic of Kazakhstan Beate Eschment Phone: (7172) 75 20 20 Kazakh and/or Kazakhstani? Fax: (7172) 75 20 21 E-mail: [email protected] The National Identity of the Republic www.kisi.kz of Kazakhstan and its Citizens ...... 30 This Journal was registered with the Ministry of Culture and Information of the Republic of Kazakhstan Rustem Kadyrzhanov on January 24, 2003. Registration certificate No. 3529-zh. On the Influence of Post-Soviet Ethnodemographic ISSN 2414-570X Dynamics on the Cultural Integration None of the articles shall be of Ethnoses in Kazakhstan...... 46 reproduced without reference to the Journal. The opinion of the editorial board may differ from that of the authors of articles. Printed by «Nadegda 2050» LLP, Kokshetau, Baimukanov street, 3. Copies: 350.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 1 Мазмұны

Мазмұны

3/2020

Бас редактор Зарема Шаукенова Әсел Назарбетова Covid-19 пандемиясымен күрес: ҚСЗИ-дың Халықаралық зерттеулер бөлімінің басшысы Қазақстанның тәжірибесі, амалдары, шаралары, шешімдері...... 7 Редактор Анастасия Решетняк ҚСЗИ-дың аға ғылыми қызметкері Набижан Мұқаметханұлы Аманжан Арзыкулов Басуға жауапты: Алмас Арзықұлов Қазақстан мен Қытай арасындағы өндіріс Беттеу: қуаты саласындағы ынтымақтастығы...... 15 Валерий Глухов Аударма: ЖШС «Delta Consulting Group» Айдана Акесина Мекен-жайы: Қазақстанның шекаралық саясаты этносаралық Қазақстан Республикасының Президенті жанындағы Қазақстан стратегиялық келісімді қамтамасыз ету негізі ретінде...... 23 зерттеулер институты 010000, Қазақстан Республикасы, Нұр-Султан, Бейбітшілік көш, 4 Беате Эшмент Телефон: (7172) 75 20 20 Қазақ және/немесе қазақстандық? Факс: (7172) 75 20 21 E-mail: [email protected] Қазақстан Республикасы мен оның www.kisi.kz азаматтарының ұлттық бірегейлігі...... 30 Журнал Қазақстан Республикасының мәдениет және ақпарат министрілігінде 2003 жылдың 24 қаңтарында тіркелген Рүстем Қадыржанов Қазақстандағы этностардың мәдени Тіркеу туралы №. 3529-ж. куәлігі берілді интеграциясына посткеңестік ISSN 2414-570X этнодемографиялық динамиканың Мақалаларды көшіріп басқан жағдайда ықпалы туралы...... 46 журналға сілтеме жасалынуы тиіс.

Мақала авторларының пікірі редакция көзқарасымен сәйкес келмеуі мүмкін

«Надежда 2050» ЖШС баспасынан басылып шығарылды Көкшетау қ., Баймұқанов, 3. Таралымы: 350 дана.

2 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 Содержание

Содержание

3/2020

Главный редактор Зарема Шаукенова Асель Назарбетова Борьба с пандемией Covid-19: Руководитель Отдела международных опыт Казахстана, подходы, меры, решения...... 7 исследований КИСИ Набижан Мұқаметханұлы Редактор Анастасия Решетняк Аманжан Арзыкулов Старший научный сотрудник КИСИ Развитие сотрудничества между Казахстаном

Ответственный за публикацию: и Китаем по производственным мощностям...... 15 Алмас Арзикулов Верстка: Валерий Глухов Айдана Акесина

Перевод: ТОО «Delta Consulting Group» Пограничная политика Казахстана как основа обеспечения межэтнического согласия...... 23 Адрес: Казахстанский институт стратегических исследований при Президенте Республики Казахстан Беате Эшмент 010000, Республика Казахстан, Нур-Султан Казах и/или казахстанец? Национальная ул. Бейбитшилик 4 Телефон: (7172) 75 20 20 идентичность Республики Казахстан Факс: (7172) 75 20 21 E-mail: [email protected] и её граждан...... 30 www.kisi.kz

Журнал зарегистрирован в Министерстве Рустем Кадыржанов культуры и информации Республики О влиянии постсоветской Казахстан 24 января 2003 года этнодемографической динамики на культурную Регистрационное свидетельство № 3529-ж. интеграцию этносов в Казахстане...... 45 ISSN 2414-570X

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Отпечатано в ТОО «Надежда 2050». г. Кокшетау, улица Баймуканова, 3. Тираж: 350 экземпляров

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 3 The Editorial Board

The Editorial Board

3/2020

Maulen Ashimbayev The Chairman of the Editorial Board, Chairperson of the Senate of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Candidate of Political Sciences

Assel Nazarbetova Editor-in-Chief, Head of the Department of International Studies of the Ka- zakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Ph.D

Anastassiya Reshetnyak Editor, Senior Research Fellow at the Department of International Studies of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Master of Social Science

Sanat Kushkumbayev Deputy Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Republic of Kazakhstan, Doctor of Political Sciences Murat Laumulin Chief Research Fellow of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Doctor of Political Sciences

Irina Chernykh Professor of Kazakh-German University, Doctor of Historiсal Sciences

Timur Dadabayev Associate Professor of International Relations, Director of Combined MA/ Ph.D. Program for Japanese and Eurasian Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, University of Tsukuba, Ph.D (Japan) Marlène Laruelle Director of the Central Asia Program (CAP) of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the Elliot School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, Ph.D (USA)

Thomas Ruttig Director of Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), Ph.D (Germany)

Ding Xiaoxing Executive Director of Institute of Eurasian Studies of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, professor (China)

4 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 Редакциялық кеңес

Редакциялық кеңес

3/2020

Мәулен Әшімбаев Редакциялық кеңестің төрағасы, Қазақстан Республикасы Парламенті Сенатының төрағасы, саяси ғылымдарының кандидаты

Әсел Назарбетова Бас редактор, ҚР Президенті жанындағы Қазақстаннаң стратегиялық зерттеулер институтының халықаралық зерттеулер бөлімінің басшысы, «Саясаттану» мамандығы бойынша философия докторы (Ph.D.) Анастасия Решетняк Редактор, ҚР Президенті жанындағы Қазақстанның стратегиялық зерттеулер институтының халықаралық зерттеулер бөлімінің аға ғылыми қызметкері, әлеуметтік ғылымдары магистрі Санат Көшкімбаев ҚР Президенті жанындағы Қазақстанның стратегиялық зерттеулер институты директорының орынбасары, саяси ғылымдарының докторы

Мұрат Лаумулин ҚР Президенті жанындағы Қазақстанның стратегиялық зерттеулер институтының бас ғылыми қызметкері, саяси ғылымдарының докторы

Ирина Черных Қазақ-Неміс университетінің профессоры, тарих ғылымдарының докторы

Тимур Дадабаев Халықаралық қатынастар кафедрасының доценті, Цукуба Университеті Әлеуметтік және гуманитарлық ғылымдар факультетінің жапон және еуразиялық зерттеулерге арналған біріктірілген MA/Ph.D. бағдарламасының директоры, Ph.D. (Жапония) Марлен Ларуэль Джордж Вашингтон университеті Эллиот Халықаралық қатынастар мектебі Орталық Азияны зерттеу бағдарламасының жетекшісі, Ph.D. (АҚШ)

Томас Руттиг Ауғанстан бойынша сарапшылар желісінің директоры, Ph.D. (Германия) Дин Сяосин Қытай заманауи халықаралық қатынастар академиясының Еуразиялық зерттеулер институтының атқарушы директоры, профессор (Қытай)

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 5 Редакционный совет

Редакционный совет

3/2020

Маулен Ашимбаев Председатель Редакционного совета, Председатель Сената Парламента Республики Казахстан, кандидат политических наук

Асель Назарбетова Шеф-редактор, руководитель Отдела международных исследований Казахстанского института стратегических исследований при Президенте РК, доктор философии (Ph.D.) по специальности «Политология» Анастасия Решетняк Редактор, старший научный сотрудник Отдела международных исследований Казахстанского института стратегических исследований при Президенте РК, магистр социальных наук Санат Кушкумбаев заместитель директора Казахстанского института стратегических исследований при Президенте РК, доктор политических наук Мурат Лаумулин Главный научный сотрудник Казахстанского института стратегических исследований при Президенте РК, доктор политических наук

Ирина Черных Профессор Казахстанско-Немецкого университета, доктор исторических наук

Тимур Дадабаев Доцент кафедры международных отношений, директор Объединенной программы магистратуры и Ph.D. докторантуры по японским и евразийским исследованиям факультета социальных и гуманитарных наук Университета Цукуба, доктор Ph.D. (Япония) Марлен Ларуэль руководитель программы по изучению Центральной Азии Школы Международных отношений Эллиота Университета Джорджа Вашингтона, доктор Ph.D. (США) Томас Руттиг директор Сети аналитиков по Афганистану, доктор Ph.D. (Германия)

Дин Сяосин Исполнительный директор Института евразийских исследований Китайской академии современных международных отношений, профессор (Китай)

6 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 SRSTI 11.15.25 FIGHTING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPERIENCE, APPROACHES, MEASURES, AND SOLUTIONS

Zarema Shaukenova, Doctor of Sociology, Professor, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Director of the KazISS under the President of the RK Abstract. The coronavirus pandemic, which has become a catalyst for many troubles and tragedies this year and has radically changed the foundations of life, has not spared the Central Asian region. The countries of the region are being seriously tested, including by restrictive measures that have resulted in thousands of people losing their permanent income or experiencing a reduction in it, and forced to be isolated, which undoubtedly affects the mental health of citizens. Since the beginning of the pandemic to date, Kazakhstan, along with other Central Asian states, has been taking comprehensive measures to combat the Covid-19 pandemic aimed at preventing the spread, suppression and elimination of the negative consequences of the coronavirus. This article examines the current epidemiological situation in Kazakhstan and the country’s experience in terms of measures and approaches taken by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the epidemic. Keywords: Kazakhstan, COVID-19, Pandemic, Government Measures, Healthcare, Quarantine

COVID-19 ПАНДЕМИЯСЫМЕН КҮРЕС: ҚАЗАҚСТАННЫҢ ТӘЖІРИБЕСІ, АМАЛДАРЫ, ШАРАЛАРЫ, ШЕШІМДЕРІ

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 7 Зарема Шаукенова

Аңдатпа. Биыл көптеген қиыншылықтар мен қайғылы оқиғалардың катализаторына айналған және өмір негіздерін түбегейлі өзгерткен коронавирустық пандемия Орталық Азия аймағын да айналып өткен жоқ. Аймақ елдері едәуір қиыншылықтарға тап болды, соның ішінде шектеу шараларына да байланысты, осының нәтижесінде мыңдаған адамдар тұрақты кірістерінен айрылды, оқшаулануға мәжбүрлік азаматтардың психикалық денсаулығына да әсер етеді. Қазақстан басқа Орталық Азия мемлекеттерімен қатар пандемияның басталу кезінен бастап осы уақытқа дейін коронавирустың таралуын болдырмауға, жолын кесу және теріс салдарын жоюға бағытталған Ковид-19 пандемиясына қарсы күрестің кешенді шараларын қабылдап келеді. Бұл мақалада Қазақстандағы қазіргі эпидемиологиялық ахуал және эпидемия кезінде ҚР Үкіметі қабылдаған шаралар мен тәсілдер туралы елдің тәжірибесі қарастырылған. Түйін сөздер: Қазақстан, COVID-19, пандемия, мемлекеттік шаралар, денсаулық сақтау, карантин

БОРЬБА С ПАНДЕМИЕЙ COVID-19: ОПЫТ КАЗАХСТАНА, ПОДХОДЫ, МЕРЫ, РЕШЕНИЯ

Зарема Шаукенова

Аннотация. Пандемия коронавируса, ставшая катализатором многих бед и трагедий в текущем году и кардинальным образом изменившая жизненные устои не обошла и регион Центральной Азии. Страны региона подвергаются серьёзному испытанию, в том числе в связи с ограничительными мерами, вследствие которых тысячи людей потеряли постоянный доход или испытали его сокращение, вынуждены находиться в изоляции, что безусловно отражается и на психическом здоровье граждан. Казахстаном, наряду с другими центральноазиатскими государствами, c начала пандемии по сегодняшний день предпринимаются всеобъемлющие меры борьбы с пандемией Ковид-19, направленные на предупреждение распространения, пресечение и устранение негативных последствий коронавируса. В данной статье рассматривается текущая эпидемиологическая ситуация в Казахстане и опыт страны в части мер и подходов, которые принимаются Правительством Республики Казахстан в период эпидемии. Ключевые слова: Казахстан, COVID-19, пандемия, государственные меры, здравоохранение, карантин

Introduction scientific progress and the development In the current conditions, the international of the world economy. Each of us is now community continues to intensively fight wondering what the new reality of the post- the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led coronavirus world will be. As UN Secretary to a slowdown in global technological and General Antonio Gutterres noted, the

8 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 consequences of the pandemic will be felt stages of strengthening to prevent the for decades in all spheres of our life, and it import and spread of coronavirus infection is now important for the world community in Kazakhstan: to show solidarity and join forces in order to at the first stage, sanitary and “stop this virus” [1]. epidemiological control at the borders was According to John Hopkins University, strengthened, training exercises were held, as of September 6 this year, there was an and information and explanatory work was unprecedented increase in the number started among the population. of COVID-19 cases around the world. - at the second stage, laboratory 304,626 infected with coronavirus were diagnostics of infection was established, detected during the day, while the previous and the treatment regimen was approved. peak of growth occurred on August 14 this - at the third stage, a methodology for year, when the number of infected people ranking countries into three categories was 304,351 within 24 hours. Overall, depending on the risk of infection was 26,882,530 cases of coronavirus have been developed and implemented. reported since the beginning of the global Depending on the level of risk, medical pandemic, of which 879,580 have been fatal control was established for people arriving [2]. from countries that had bad COVID The current deepest crisis has not been situation. A special “hotline” headquarters spared in Central Asia, where more than has been created under the Ministry of 200 thousand people have been infected Foreign Affairs, which advises citizens of with the coronavirus since March, more the Republic of Kazakhstan who apply for than 3,000 have died. In addition, hundreds help. of thousands have lost permanent income In order to prevent the spread of the or experienced a reduction in income due disease, President of the Republic of to quarantine measures and the closure of Kazakhstan K. K. Tokayev signed the state borders. Decree on the Introduction of a State of In this article, the experience of Emergency from March 16 to April 15, Kazakhstan in terms of measures and 2020, which was further extended until approaches taken by the government during May 11 this year. The spring restrictive the epidemic is addressed. measures allowed the Government and the medical sector to prepare in technical terms Social and Epidemiological Measures and adjust the further strategy to counteract The first cases of COVID-19 coronavirus the pandemic. infection were registered in Kazakhstan Unfortunately, later Kazakhstan faced an on March 13, 2020. At the same time, the emergency epidemiological situation. By the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan end of June, about 1,700 cases of infection had been actively preparing for it since were detected daily in the country, hospitals January 2020. First of all, there was created began to experience a huge load, and the a special interdepartmental commission on situation with medicines in pharmacies was the non-contagion of coronavirus infection. not easy. The high increase in morbidity The Ministry of Health of the Republic was largely due to the behavior of the part of Kazakhstan has implemented three of the population that neglected precautions

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 9 early. In this regard, on July 5 this year, it than 4 trillion tenge. To help businesses, was decided to return to strict quarantine, the government decided to exempt them which lasted until the end of the month. from paying taxes until December 31, 2020, As a result of the stabilization of the suspended the accrual of penalties for non- epidemiological situation, including a fulfilled tax obligations of the year, and reduction in the daily increase in infection postponed the deadline for submitting tax from 4% to 0.5%, it was decided to put into reports to the third quarter of 2020.Working effect the Plan for Phasing out Quarantine citizens of Kazakhstan who lost their income Measures from August 17 this year. Along during the state of emergency, as well as the with the resumption of work of business self-employed received payments in the entities of a specific field in each region, amount of 1 minimum wage (42.5 thousand including retail facilities, the easing of tenge per month). Besides, there were taken quarantine measures provides for the additional support measures, including continuation of work in remote mode for at assistance to low-income citizens with food least 80% of employees, the continuation and household kits, assistance to farmers for of restrictive measures on weekends, and timely spring field work, providing work for above all compliance with the requirements citizens around large cities that are closed for masking mode and social distancing [3]. for quarantine, etc. Under these conditions, Kazakhstan In his Message to the people of Kazakhstan has started the second stage of easing on September 1 this year, President of quarantine restrictions since August 31 this Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev year, approved by the Interdepartmental announced the construction of 13 infectious Commission on August 26 this year and hospitals in the regions and 2 multi-purpose assuming the permission of activity to a centers in Nur-Sultan and Almaty to form larger range of facilities, including specially a kind of “health belt” of the state. As protected natural territories, cultural and an additional aid to small and medium religious facilities, suburban passenger businesses, support will be provided in the transportation, subject to compliance form of state subsidization of interest rates with all sanitary requirements [4]. At this to 6% interest on all existing loans to SMEs stage, state measures are primarily aimed in the affected sectors of the economy. Until at consolidating the positive results of the end of the year, the accrual of the rent stabilizing the epidemiological situation in for SMEs is suspended in respect of the real the country. In this regard, the next important estate owned by state agencies and quasi- step of the government of Kazakhstan is the public sector, there is a decrease in the introduction of a mechanism for selective rate of morbidity in Kazakhstan. The daily restrictions and adaptive quarantine [5]. increase in patients is recorded at the level of less than 80 people per day. The business Social and Economic Measures activity of the population is growing back, An important component of the and a strategy to overcome the economic coronacrisis today, of course, are measures crisis is being developed. of socio-economic support to the population The pandemic has shown us all how and business. In Kazakhstan, the volume vulnerable humanity is to such large-scale of anti-crisis measures amounted to more crises, and how dependent each of us is on

10 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 others. It has once again reminded us all of the real information about the rules of conduct need for globalization and comprehensive during quarantine, state measures to combat cooperation and demonstrated the fallacy of coronavirus, as well as refutations on false falsehood. In this regard, the March call of information published in the networks. the UN Secretary General to end all military Responses to citizens’ requests prepared conflicts on the planet remains relevant and by government agencies are an integral crucial in the current conditions. component of the services provided on the portal – only transparency and accountability Information Measures would help in the face of the dominance of In the face of a pandemic, an important fake news and misinformation. component of the government of A significant role in informing the Kazakhstan’s anti-crisis measures is population is played by the Central to provide timely and comprehensive Communications Service under the information to the population about the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, situation in the country and the sanitary and which organizes regular briefings to inform epidemiological measures taken to prevent about the situation with the pandemic and the spread of Covid-19. measures taken in the country, which are In this regard, an important step is the attended by experts in the field of medicine, creation of the Republican Communication executive employees of central state bodies, Center in Kazakhstan, whose activities are as well as akims of Almaty and Nur-Sultan. aimed at ensuring coordination between state bodies during the fight against International Cooperation coronavirus in the country. In the context of the pandemic, it is The Center regularly works to ensure the particularly important for Kazakhstan to collection and analysis of data, as well as strengthen cooperation with global and the preparation of reliable consultations. regional partners, including coordination There is an online monitoring group in of efforts in the fight against COVID-19, the Telegram messenger consisting of exchange of experience, and mutual employees of state bodies that was designed assistance. to respond to potentially hot-button As President of Kazakhstan Kassym- topics in a timely manner. Jomart Tokayev noted, “nowadays it is A particularly important function of the necessary to strengthen international Republican Communication Center is to cooperation in the fight against the ensure the operation of coronavirus2020.kz, pandemic. In this regard, we are making a single information portal on coronavirus. joint efforts with our partner countries. This Its work includes preparing up-to-date is the main way to counter this epidemic. information for the site and creating In general, we will maintain continuity multimedia products. The site’s Telegram in our foreign policy. We will continue to channel is functioning successfully. develop mutually beneficial relations with The website created for the purpose of our traditional and new partners.” reliably informing the population about the Kazakhstan is actively negotiating situation with the pandemic in Kazakhstan with partner countries and international contains up-to-date statistics on coronavirus, organizations in the framework of

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 11 coordinating efforts with the international pandemic and long-term sustainability of community to combat the pandemic, the national health systems of Central Asian eliminate the consequences of the crisis, states [7]. and ensure the safety of citizens. It is impossible not to mention the At the same time, it is important for humanitarian aid provided to Kazakhstan in Kazakhstan to receive assistance and the context of the pandemic by the United support from key partners during this Arab Emirates, Poland, South Korea, difficult period. Turkey, India, Pakistan, Japan, and Qatar Since the beginning of the pandemic, a [8]. number of humanitarian aid consignments It should also be noted that in the current have been sent to Kazakhstan from conditions, it is particularly important for China, the closest neighbour and partner, Kazakhstan to maintain a comprehensive including lung ventilators, thermovision interstate dialogue and join efforts in the camera, contactless thermometers, test kits, fight against the spread of coronavirus disposable protective equipment, medical with the fraternal countries of Central Asia, masks, medical gloves, safety glasses, and including the exchange of information, medical clothing. ensuring the unhindered supply of products, Gratuitous assistance from the United and providing mutual assistance and States of America was provided to the support. Taking into account the lessons Republic of Kazakhstan in April this year of the pandemic, in particular, the issue through the Defense Threat Reduction of production of essential medicines and Agency under the US Department of products, Central Asian countries should defense in the form of medical devices strengthen cooperation in the pharmaceutical and equipment, including reusable sets of sector. personal protective equipment (overalls, Back inApril 2020, Kazakhstan announced masks, gloves, glasses). In addition, the US its readiness to provide humanitarian Government, through the US Agency for assistance in order to combat the negative International Development (USAID), has consequences of the coronavirus “as a sign allocated about $ 3.11 million to Kazakhstan of solidarity” and “in case of an appeal from in the form of new emergency aid funding the governments” of Central Asian states to assist the Republic of Kazakhstan in the in need of such aid. The Government of fight against coronavirus [6]. Kazakhstan has already sent humanitarian At the same time, in July this year, aid to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (5 thousand a comprehensive package of solidarity tons of flour to each country) to ensure food assistance of Central Asia COVID-19 security during the pandemic and plans to Crisis Response (CACCR) in the amount send portable lung ventilators to Tajikistan of 3 million euros (1.4 billion tenge), aimed and food products to Uzbekistan (flour, at meeting the needs of the region’s states buckwheat, vegetable oil and canned food). with a focus on Kazakhstan, was launched An important unifying factor is the support by the European Union. The CACCR provided by the countries of the region to program implemented by the World Afghanistan. Given the special importance Health Organization provides assistance of interstate cooperation at the present time, in mitigating the consequences of the an important role is given to the newly

12 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 created Kazakhstan Agency for International of the Republic of Kazakhstan, including Development (KazAID), which will aim the suspension of private enterprises and to provide assistance to countries in need, the closure of public crowded places, including the states of Central Asia. the transition to distance learning for In the next stage, the primary task of schoolchildren, the suspension of passenger Governments around the world will be transportation between major cities and to immunize the population. Covid-19 intra-city public transportation, the closure vaccines are currently being developed of international airports, the introduction in dozens of countries around the world, of a two-week quarantine for citizens from of which more than 30 have already been certain states arriving from abroad by flights approved by WHO for clinical trials. One [9]. of them was developed in Kazakhstan. In However, according to the World Health the framework of regional cooperation to Organization (WHO), the fight against ensure citizens’ access to vaccination, joint COVID-19 in the world will take about activities should be considered and logistics two years, and the rapid introduction of support for supplies should be provided. a pandemic vaccine will not entail an In this difficult period, cooperation in immediate end to the coronavirus [10]. Central Asia should receive a new impetus Taking into account the current situation – only together can we overcome the of the pandemic in the world and the emerging difficulties and minimize the subsequent threat of a prolonged crisis, negative consequences of the coronavirus the government of Kazakhstan draws key for our countries and peoples. lessons from effective practices to overcome the crisis and continues to work actively Conclusion to improve socio-epidemiological, socio- In unprecedented conditions, containment economic, information, and coordination of the coronavirus outbreak in Kazakhstan measures with global and regional partners became possible due to timely restrictive in the fight against the pandemic at the local measures put in place by the Government and international levels.

References:

1. You Can’t Win the War against COVID-19 without WHO // UN News [e-source]. URL: https://news.un.org/ru/story/2020/04/1375792 (accessed: 11.09.2020) 2. The World has Seen an Unprecedented Increase in the Number of Infections with Coronavirus // Deutsche Welle [e-source]. URL: https:// www.dw.com/ru/v-mire-otmechen-rekordnyj-prirost-chisla-zarazhenij- koronavirusom/a-54829812 (accessed: 11.09.2020) 3. The State Commission approved the Plan for Phasing out Quarantine Measures from August 17 this year // Official website of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan [e- source]. URL: https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/goskomissiya-utverdila-plan- poetapnogo-snyatiya-karantinnyh-mer-s-17-avgusta-t-g-137510 (accessed: 11.09.2020) 4. Easing the Quarantine: What is Being Opened in Kazakhstan from August 31 // Liter Newspaper [e-source]. URL: https://liter.kz/73951-2/ (accessed: 11.09.2020)

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 13 5. Message of Head of State Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to the People of Kazakhstan. September 1, 2020 // Official Website of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan [e-source]. URL: https://www.akorda.kz/ru/ addresses/addresses_of_president/poslanie-glavy-gosudarstva-kasym- zhomarta-tokaeva-narodu-kazahstana-1-sentyabrya-2020-g (accessed: 11.09.2020) 6. 6. The U.S. Provides Additional Funds to Kazakhstan to Strengthen the Fight Against COVID-19 // Us Embassy and Consulate in Kazakhstan [e-source]. URL: https://kz.usembassy.gov/ru/the-u-s-provides- additional-funds-to-kazakhstan-to-strengthen-the-fight-against-covid- 19-ru/ (accessed:11.09.2020) 7. 7. The EU Launches a 1.4-billion-tenge Programme to Combat COVID-19 in Kazakhstan and Central Asia // Delegation of the European Union to Kazakhstan [e-source]. URL: https://eeas.europa.eu/ delegations/kazakhstan/83138/ес-запускает-программу-с-бюджетом- в-14-млрд-тенге-для-борьбы-с-covid-19-в-казахстане-и_ru (accessed:11.09.2020) 8. Which Countries Helped Kazakhstan during the Pandemic // BaigeNews. kz [e-source]. URL:https://baigenews.kz/news/kakie_strany_pomogali_ kazakhstanu_v_period_pandemii/ (accessed:11.09.2020) 9. Overcoming the Crisis. Economic Report on Kazakhstan // World Bank [e-source]. URL:http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/301321595365279375/pdf/Kazakhstan-Economic-Update- Navigating-the-Crisis.pdf (accessed:11.09.2020) 10. The Fight Against the COVID Pandemic will Take about 2 Years - WHO // Euronews [e-source]. URL: https://ru.euronews.com/2020/08/22/ covid-until-2022 (accessed: 11.09.2020)

14 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 SRSTI 06.51.71 DEVELOPMENT OF THE COOPERATION BETWEEN KAZAKHSTAN AND CHINA ON PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Nabizhan Muhametkhanuly Director of the Centre for Modern Chinese Studies, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

Amanzhan Arzykulov Master of Social Sciences

Abstract. This article is analysis the production capacity in the formation and development process between Kazakhstan and China’s cooperation. Two writers of this article analysis the fundamental of establishing cooperation on the both side of the production capacity in industrial field, then clarifying that Kazakhstan’s industrialization projects urgently need to increasing their own production capacity, meanwhile China’s production capacity has exceeded its own needs. Cooperation between Kazakhstan and China in the field of production is can be based on beneficial interests, the same interests, national interests. Furthermore, after the two countries reached an agreement of the industrial mutual assistance agreement, more than 51 companies have already running their operations in Kazakhstan. After the certain tax exemptions implemented by the Kazakhstan government, Chinese investors will easily get further developed cooperation of production capacity in this country. Key words: Tax Exemptions, Kazakhstan, China, Production Capacity, National Demand.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 15 ҚАЗАСТАН МЕН ҚЫТАЙ АРАСЫНДАҒЫ ӨНДІРІС ҚУАТЫ САЛАСЫНДАҒЫ ЫНТЫМАҚТАСТЫҒЫ

Набижан Мұқаметханұлы, Аманжан Арзыкулов

Аңдатпа. Мақалада Қазақстан мен Қытай арасындағы өндіріс қуаты саласындағы ынтымақтастығының қалыптасуы мен дамуына үдерісіне талдау жасалған. Авторлар екі арасында өндіріс қуаты саласы бойынша ынтымақтастық орнатудың негіздерін қарастырып, Қазақстанда жүргізіліп жатқан индустрияландыру жобасына өндіріс қуатының аса қажет екендігін, ал Қытайда өндіріс қуатының өз қажеттерінен асып жатқанын, оны қалайда шетелдерге экспорт етуге мұқтаж екендігін пайымдап, Қазақстан мен Қытай арасындағы өндіріс саласындағы ынтымақтачстықтың ұлттық мүде негізінде қалыптасқандығын түсіндіреді. Сондай-ақ осы салада екі мемлекет келісімге келген 51 өндіріс орнының Қазақстанда жүзеге асып жатқанын және Қазақстан үкіметінің Қытай инвестрлерін кейбір салықтан босату саясатының, екі елдің өндіріс қуаты саласындағы ынтымақтастығын дамыта түседі деп санайды. Түйін сөздер: Қазақстан, Қытай, ынтымақтастықтың тереңдеуі, өндіріс қуаты, мемлекеттік қажеттілік, салықтан босату.

РАЗВИТИЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВА МЕЖДУ КАЗАХСТАНОМ И КИТАЕМ ПО ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННЫМ МОЩНОСТЯМ

Набижан Мұқаметханұлы, Аманжан Арзыкулов.

Аннотация. В данной статье проводится анализ производственного потенциала в процессе становления и развития сотрудничества Казахстана и Китая. Авторы этой статьи анализируют основы налаживания сотрудничества по обе стороны производственных мощностей в промышленной сфере, а затем поясняют, что казахстанские проекты индустриализации срочно нуждаются в увеличении собственных производственных мощностей, в то время как производственные мощности Китая превышают его собственные потребности. Сотрудничество между Казахстаном и Китаем в сфере производства может строиться на взаимовыгодных интересах, общих интересах, национальных интересах. Кроме того, после того как две страны достигли соглашения о соглашении о взаимопомощи в промышленности, более 51 компании уже начали свою деятельность в Казахстане. После определенных налоговых льгот, введенных правительством Казахстана, китайские инвесторы легко получат дальнейшее развитие кооперации производственных мощностей в этой стране. Ключевые слова: налоговые льготы, Казахстан, Китай, производственные мощности, национальный спрос.

16 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 Introduction industrial infrastructure, energy infrastruc- The cooperation between Kazakhstan ture and public infrastructure. Therefore, and China on production capacity is a Kazakhstan’s future plan of development is remarkable achievement in the new stage directly linked to the Chinese initiative and of the strategic partnership between the two realizes the “policy coordination” of Ka- countries. Due to the sectors of cooperation zakhstan and China under the Belt and Road with prospects for development and the framework so that the bilateral relations of model of cooperation with demonstration the two countries are elevated to a new his- effects, it is a topic that is worthy of attention torical height and provide the basis for the and research. policy for cooperation on production capac- ity. Since then, China and Kazakhstan have The establishment of cooperation begun to discuss this cooperation [2] . between Kazakhstan and China on For the purpose of “policy coordination”, production capacity the top leaders of the two countries have Since the establishment of diplomatic interacted more frequently, have signed a relations between Kazakhstan and China in series of cooperation agreements under the 1992, the two countries’ friendly cooperation framework of the Belt and Road and have in various sectors has been reflecting a implemented them one by one. trend of expansion. Kazakhstan and China In December 2014, Chinese Premier Li established good-neighborly relations and Keqiang visited the Republic of Kazakhstan. friendly cooperation in 2002, a strategic The two governments signed more than partnership in 2005 and a comprehensive 30 cooperation agreements totaling 14 strategic partnership in 2011. billion US dollars and the Memorandum In September 2013, when Chinese Presi- of Understanding on Jointly Promoting dent Xi Jinping visited Central Asian coun- the Construction of the Silk Road tries for the first time, he put forward the Economic Belt, and reached a consensus international initiative in the Republic of on the Kazakhstan-China agreement for a Kazakhstan that advocated “jointly build- framework of cooperation with a value of ing the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ with an 18 billion US dollars. The two countries innovative model of cooperation”, which initially identified 16 early harvest projects was epoch-making and of historical and and 63 prospective projects, covering realistic geopolitical and economic signifi- cement, steel, flat glass, mining, chemicals, cance. Therefore, the Republic of Kazakh- energy, electricity and other sectors. stan immediately responded to the Chinese During the visit to China by Prime initiative. On November 11, President Naz- Minister Masimov of the Republic of arbayev proposed the new economic policy Kazakhstan in March 2015, the two countries of “The Road to Brightness — The Road signed the memorandum of understanding to the Future” in the State of the Union Ad- on strengthening their cooperation on dress for 2014 [1], aiming to facilitate eco- production capacity and investment, as nomic restructuring and promote economic well as cooperation agreements with a total growth. The new economic policy of the value of 23.6 billion US dollars for steel, “Road to Brightness” prioritizes the de- oil refining, hydropower, vehicles, non- velopment of transportation infrastructure, ferrous metals and flat glass. In December

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 17 2015, the Prime Ministers of Kazakhstan of the Construction of the “Silk Road and China signed the Joint Communiqué Economic Belt” and the New Economic of the Government of the Republic of Policy of the “Road to Brightness” Kazakhstan and the Government of the between the Government of the Republic People’s Republic of China and proposed of Kazakhstan and the Government of “to launch the joint plan for connecting the the People’s Republic of China. The Plan construction of the ‘Silk Road Economic proposed to strengthen the connectivity Belt’ and the new economic policy of the and cooperation regarding infrastructure ‘Road to Brightness’”. in the basic transportation sector, to On August 31, 2015, during the visit actively promote the traffic build-up of the to China by Kazakh President Nursultan China-Kazakhstan-West Asia, the China- Nazarbayev, the leaders of Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan-Russia-Western Europe and China signed the Joint Declaration on the the China-Kazakhstan-South Caucasus- New Stage of a Comprehensive Strategic Turkey-Europe transportation ways, to Partnership between the People’s Republic optimize transportation infrastructure from of China and the Republic of Kazakhstan the northwest frontier to the southeast coast and the intergovernmental framework of China, enhance the road and railway agreement on strengthening cooperation on transportation capacity of both sides, and production capacity and investments. This lay a solid foundation for the construction meant that the developmental strategies of of the new Eurasian Land Bridge Economic the two countries were integrated, and it Corridor. Therefore, President Nazarbayev was the first agreement on cooperation on of Kazakhstan urged his government to give production capacity signed between China priority to the implementation of cooperation and a foreign country [3]. projects signed by Kazakhstan and China in In order to ensure the implementation the State of the Union address for 2017[4]. of the agreement, China also established At the summit of the Belt and Road held in an inter-departmental working mechanism Beijing in May 2017, President Nazarbayev and set up a capacity cooperation fund. A of Kazakhstan delivered a speech. He total of 51 projects were determined and 25 thought that the implementation of the Belt agreements were signed for a total amount and Road would surely bring well-known of 23 billion US dollars. The projects good opportunities to countries along the have already commenced, such as vehicle Silk Road, including Central Asia, with a assembly, polypropylene project and light new developmental model. He praised the rail project of Astana, and more than ten achievements of connecting the “Road to projects in steel, smelting, cement and other Brightness” and the “Belt and Road” and sectors are about to be launched. made suggestions for in-depth cooperation in the field of scientific and technological Development of the cooperation innovation in the next step[5]. These were between Kazakhstan and China on suggestions for the development of science production capacity and technology, educational innovations and On September 2, 2016, the governments national competitiveness proposed by our of Kazakhstan and China signed the president in the State of the Union address Cooperation Plan for the Coordination for this year. It revealed that the President of

18 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 Kazakhstan is willing to cooperate in depth between the two countries in production with China on technological innovations. capacity has shown a trend of profound Nuryshev, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to development. This means that China’s new China, pointed out that “Kazakhstan and concept of cooperation and win-win results China maintain close cooperation on the under the new international situation has issue of the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’, been recognized and positively responded an important part of the Belt and Road to by Kazakhstan, and the connection of Initiative. At present, we are working the new economic policy of the “Road to together with China on 51 projects for a total Brightness” and the Belt and Road Initiative value of 26 billion US dollars in cooperation has expanded and upgraded the cooperation on production capacity. I believe that the of the two countries on production capacity. successful implementation of these plans Therefore, President Nazarbayev of will promote not only the development Kazakhstan once said that: “The People’s of Kazakhstan, but also that of the entire Republic of China has become one of the region” [6]. major economic partners of Kazakhstan in Kazakhstan and China have achieved terms of the amount of foreign capital and remarkable results in their cooperation on loans and the number of joint ventures” [7]. production capacity, and have made great Zhang Hanhui, the Chinese ambassador to progress in advantageous equipment such Kazakhstan, pointed out that: “Under the as railway and nuclear power and in their framework of the Belt and Road, China and capacity for the production of steel, non- Kazakhstan have carried out more than 50 ferrous metals and building materials. A projects of cooperation on capacity with a total of 34 projects, such as Aktogay copper total amount of 27 billion US dollars. Many mines, with a capacity of 250,000 tons/year, projects have been completed and put into the Pavlodar electrolytic aluminum plant use” [8]. of 250,000 tons/year, the Caspian asphalt The above facts indicate that Kazakhstan plant with 1 million tons/year, the Menalar has achieved fruitful results in the cement plant with 3,000 tons/day, have cooperation on production capacity by been completed and put into production; connecting the “Belt and Road” and the 43 projects are ongoing, inclusive of the “Road to Brightness”. This has a certain first fully automated unmanned urban light demonstration effect in Central Asia. railway adopting the Chinese standards in Astana, a tempered glass factory and a large- Prospects for the cooperation between diameter spiral welded steel pipe factory Kazakhstan and China on production with the capacity of 100,000 tons in Almaty, capacity companies for the processing of agricultural The cooperation between Kazakhstan products in the North Kazakhstan region, an and China on production capacity has very oil refinery and a deep processing project broad developmental prospects because in Atyrau and the Jianghuai automobile there is great complementarity between assembly plant in Kostanay. Kazakhstan’s industrial sectors and resource Thus, since the strategic partnership endowments and those of China, especially between Kazakhstan and China entered a the great potential for cooperation on new stage of development, the cooperation production capacity in infrastructure,

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 19 processing and manufacturing. Kazakhstan only unleash the Kazakhstan economy is a large Central Asian country with the from the dependence on energy exports, petroleum industry as the pillar and exports but it will also promote the process of of energy, agriculture and animal husbandry industrialization in Kazakhstan, improve the products. It also actively promotes economic competitiveness of Kazakhstan, industrialization, informationization and and be conducive to increasing employment economic diversification. Therefore, what and improving the livelihood of its people. Kazakhstan urgently needs is capital and According to the changing trend of technology. China has powerful capital international relations in recent years, the and technology and its construction of cooperation between Kazakhstan and China infrastructure is basically saturated. Major will be further developed. products such as steel, cement, electricity In the China-Kazakhstan Production and electrolytic aluminum are subject to Capacity Cooperation Dialogue held in overcapacity. Accordingly, China urgently December 2014, the two sides established needs a capacity transfer [9]. This economic the principles of cooperation, namely, complementarity has laid a solid foundation “Government Guidance, Enterprise for cooperation between Kazakhstan and Matching, Pragmatic Cooperation, Mutual China on production capacity. Benefit and Win-Win Results”. Kazakhstan From the perspective of policies, General and China are working together under Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in the these principles of mutual benefit and report of the 19th CPC National Congress win-win results. The concept of “win-win that: “China adheres to the fundamental cooperation” has become the new principle national policy of opening-up and pursues of international relations pursued by China development with its doors open wide. today and a new principle for China in China will actively promote international developing foreign cooperative relations. cooperation through the Belt and Road The diplomatic concept of win-win Initiative. In doing so, we hope to achieve cooperation is of great significance to the policy, infrastructure, trade, financial, and development of all countries in the world, to people-to-people connectivity and thus build the peaceful development of mankind, and a new platform for international cooperation to deepening international exchanges and to create new drivers of shared development” cooperation, thus earning wide recognition [10]. Therefore, it can be said that China will and praise from the international community. continue to promote the construction of the This concept and diplomatic principle Belt and Road [11]. is consistent with the trend of the times. Kazakhstan believes that “the Belt and Practice has proved that any international Road Initiative proposed by China can initiative and project that develops and provide new developmental opportunities benefits all will be accepted and recognized for Kazakhstan and even for Central Asian by the international community if it has countries”. The Republic of Kazakhstan and sufficient power and sincerity to lead other China will continue to cooperate actively countries to achieve their socio-economic on the basis of common national interests. development. The cooperation between the two countries So far, under the framework of the Belt on production capacity will certainly not and Road, Kazakhstan and China have

20 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 achieved fruitful cooperation in cooperation strengthen coordination and cooperation on production capacity based on the principle within the framework of the Shanghai of “win-win cooperation”, which promotes Cooperation Organization, and benefit more the social and economic development of countries and people in the region with more Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and China will pragmatic cooperation results [13]. make more progress in that cooperation. President Nazarbayev said that The leaders of Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan attached great importance to China have recognized the results of the relations with China. The cooperation the cooperation between the two sides. between the two countries in various sectors Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has yielded fruitful results, and the economic paid a state visit to China from June 7 to and trade cooperation have continuously 8, 2018, held talks with Chinese President advanced to new levels, thus becoming Xi Jinping and signed the Joint Statement a model for mutual benefit and win-win between the People’s Republic of China results. Kazakhstan, an important partner for and the Republic of Kazakhstan. In the the construction of the Belt and Road, was second section, “The two sides speak highly willing to strengthen strategic integration of fruitful results achieved in the joint with China and encourage pragmatic construction of the Belt and Road through cooperation in sectors such as industry, China-Kazakhstan cooperation. Cooperation investment, innovation, agriculture, energy is of great significance for the development and finance [14]. of bilateral relations. The two sides point out that it is significant to connect China’s Conclusion initiative for the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ Kazakhstan and China are implementing and Kazakhstan’s new economic policy of a joint venture project to establish 51 the ‘Road to Brightness’ and will promote enterprises worth 28 billion roads under the cooperation and development in various One Belt One Road project. The Kazakh side fields with an open and transparent spirit” attaches great importance to this project. [12]. In the future, Kazakhstan has adopted a In the talks with Nazarbayev, Chinese tax-free document for enterprises invested Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that in by Chinese investors. The Majilis of the recent years, China-Kazakhstan cooperation Republic of Kazakhstan approved the has made a series of groundbreaking document submitted by the Government at achievements, particularly the positive results its plenary session on December 5, 2018. of the in-depth promotion of cooperation on This document is called “Agreement on tax production capacity. He expressed the hope exemption of certain incomes of the China- that both sides could further strengthen their Kazakhstan Fund for Production Capacity cooperation on production capacity in the Cooperation, which makes direct investments construction of infrastructures, energy and in Kazakhstan.” “Manufacturing enterprises resources, and expand cooperation on the with Chinese capital will be exempt from trade and financing of agricultural products. taxes,” the statement said. These include Both sides should jointly facilitate trade with petrochemistry, fertilizer production, and communication among people, promote metallurgy and other activities. This is a industrial upgrading in both countries, great concession made by Kazakhstan to

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 21 Chinese investors, which has never been in na’s “One Belt One Road” project, the de- any other country. velopment of cooperation between the two This policy of Kazakhstan should signifi- countries in the field of production capacity cantly develop cooperation between the two has faced serious challenges. Therefore, in countries in the field of production capacity. the post-post-post-international situation, But the sudden outbreak of the pandemic in we believe that it is necessary to take into Wuhan has destabilized China’s economy, account the possible difficulties in the devel- Kazakhstan’s economy and even the world opment of cooperation between Kazakhstan economy. Thus, the implementation of Chi- and China in the field of production capacity.

References:

1. Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan N.Nazarbayev to the nation. Akorda, January 17, 2014. URL: https://www.akorda.kz/ en/addresses/addresses_of_president/address-of-the-president-of-the- republic-of-kazakhstan-nnazarbayev-to-the-nation-january-17-2014-3 (Access date: 01.09.2020) 2. Wang Zhi-min. Spillover Effects of Sino-Kazakhstan Cooperation of Production Capacity under the Background of “Belt and Road Initiatives” - Northeast Asia Forum №1,2017. URL: http://jtp.cnki.net/Bilingual/ detail/html/dbyl201701005?view=2 (Access date: 01.09.2020) 3. Joint Declaration on New Stage of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Kazakhstan – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Respublic of China – Beijing, 30.08.2015. URL: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/ wjdt_665385/2649_665393/t1293114.shtml (Access date: 01.09.2020) 4. The President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Address to the Nation of Kazakhstan. Akorda, January 31, 2017. URL:http://www. akorda.kz/kz/addresses/addresses_of_president/memleket-basshysy- nnazarbaevtyn-kazakstan-halkyna-zholdauy-2017-zhylgy-31-kantar (Access date: 01.09.2020) 5. Some measures to revitalize Central Asia //Ortalyk Aziany zhandandyru bastamalary //Aikyn gazeti. 16.05.2015. (Access date: 01.09.2020) 6. Nuryshev Sh. “Nurly zhol” and “Belt and Road” actively docking will create a model for cooperation [Guang Ming Da Dao yu Yi Dai Yi Lu jiji duijie jiang dazao hezuo dianfan]. National Business Daily, 12.05.2017. URL: http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2017-05-12/docifyfecvz1021606. shtml. (Access date: 01.09.2020) 7. Some measures to revitalize Central Asia // Ortalyk Aziany zhandandyru bastamalary //Aikyn gazeti. 16.05.2015. 8. Li Keqiang meets with President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan. - Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Kazakhstan. URL:http://kz.chineseembassy.org/chn/zhgx/t1568148.htm (Access date: 01.09.2020) URL:https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E4%BA%A7% E8%83%BD%E5%90%88%E4%BD% 9C/17012573 9. WANG Zhi-min. Spillover Effects of Sino-Kazakhstan Cooperation of Production Capacity under the Background of “Belt and Road Initiatives”, Northeast Asia Forum, №1,2017. 10. Xi Jinping. Delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18.10 .2017). People’s publishing house. 2017 . 11. China is a source of new possibilities. //Qitay-Zhana mumkindikter kozi// Қытай–URKISTAN gazeti, 03.09.2015.; An initiative that will allow to introduce Central Asia in a new way// Ortalyk Aziany Zhana nurpatty tanistiruga mumkindik beretin bactama//Aikyn gazeti.16.05.2017.

22 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 SRSTI 11.15.37 KAZAKHSTAN’S BORDER POLICY AS A BASIS FOR ENSURING INTER- ETHNIC HARMONY

Aidana Akessina Research Fellow of the Department of Social and Political Studies of KazISS under the President of the RK, Master of Social Science Abstract. The state border of the Republic of Kazakhstan is one of the first institutionalized forms of ensuring security and interethnic peace. The article examines the historical role of borders as a social space, as a tool for creating cultural and ethnic identity and notes the special significance of the border policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in ensuring interethnic peace. Key words: State Border, Border Policy, Interethnic Relations, Social Cohesion, Security.

ҚАЗАҚСТАННЫҢ ШЕКАРАЛЫҚ САЯСАТЫ ЭТНОСАРАЛЫҚ КЕЛІСІМДІ ҚАМТАМАСЫЗ ЕТУ НЕГІЗІ РЕТІНДЕ

Айдана Акесина

Аңдатпа. Қазақстан Республикасының Мемлекеттік шекарасы қауіпсіздікті, бейбітшілікті және этносаралық келісімді қамтамасыз етудің алғашқы институционализацияланған нысандарының бірі болып табылады. Мақалада шекаралардың әлеуметтік кеңістік, мәдени, этникалық бірегейлікті құру құралы ретіндегі тарихи рөлі, сондай-ақ Қазақстан Республикасының этносаралық келісімді қамтамасыз етудегі шекара саясатының ерекше маңыздылығы атап өтіледі. Түйінді сөздер: Мемлекеттік шекара, шекара саясаты, этносаралық қатынастар, қоғамдық келісім, қауіпсіздік.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 23 ПОГРАНИЧНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА КАЗАХСТАНА КАК ОСНОВА ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ МЕЖЭТНИЧЕСКОГО СОГЛАСИЯ

Айдана Акесина

Аннотация. Государственная граница Республики Казахстан является одной из первых институционализированных форм обеспечения безопасности, мира и межэтнического согласия. В статье рассматривается историческая роль границ как социального пространства, инструмента создания культурной, этнической идентичности, а также отмечается особая значимость пограничной политики Республики Казахстан в обеспечении межэтнического согласия. Ключевые слова: государственная граница, пограничная политика, межэтнические отношения, общественное согласие, безопасность.

Introduction are assigned to various functions. A world Modern border area studies reflect without physical/geographical borders seems the continuity and changes of scientific utopian. No territory can be administered idea in the conceptualization of social unless it is clearly delineated. Humanity space. Although space can be abstract and lives in a world full of "compartments" that absolute, it is the borders that "fix" it and allow us to collectively manage our lives. turn it into a concrete and understandable social and geographical area. As a result Literature Review of this awareness, the study of borders has It is important to note that border studies transformed from an interest in the study are rooted in cultural deterministic traditions of formal state borders and ethnocultural (inspired by the works of Johann Herder, territories to the study of borders at various Johann Fichte, Georg Hegel, and others), socio-spatial and geographical scales, from in which the emergence of national states local and municipal to global, regional and and their borders was understood as an supranational levels. In addition, the steady expression of historical necessity or "the growth of borderline research can be partly will of God". explained by the emergence of discussions Modern nation-states continue to about globalization in the late 1980s and understand borders as the highest form of early 1990s. effective social organization in the world For quite a long time, there have been system and remain the basic, if not always predictions of a "world without borders" in the main sources of political, cultural, and which information technology, cyberspace, social identity. The main classical studies of and the freedom of movement of capital scientists such as F. Ratzel, R. Hartshorne, and people would make political borders L. Christoph and J. Mingi emphasized atavistic. However, the Covid-19 pandemic the evolution of the border significance. has made obvious adjustments to this type According to L. Christophe, the function of forecast in the short term, since borders of borders as legal institutions is of primary are not just "visible lines" in space or on a notion: "In order to have a certain stability map: they are complex social structures that in the political structure, both at the national

24 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 and international level, a clear distinction a blow to multinational federations such as between the spheres of foreign and domestic Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR. policy is necessary. The border helps to At the same time, the desire for national understand and maintain this distinction." statehood brought devastating wars and The border simultaneously serves to meet violent episodes of ethnic cleansing with it, two basic needs of people – protection from which caused serious damage to inter-state external and internal threats, and delineation and inter-ethnic relations. of territories that belong to specific political, History also knows many other ethnic cultural and social groups. These goals are differences between young states that achieved through the process of socialization arose on the basis of territorial claims, at the initial level – in the family, school, religious and ethnic intolerance, which led and then through propaganda tools, which to prolonged confrontations. For example, ultimately lead to the formation of a person's the Indo-Pakistani conflict that broke out in self-identification within a certain territory, 1947, which turned the territory of Kashmir culture, and political system. into a smoldering hotbed of inter-ethnic and According to D. Newman and A. Paasi, inter-state tensions lasting more than seven borders are also necessary to determine decades. The situation is aggravated by the not only the internal identity, but also the presence of nuclear weapons in the countries external identity of states recognized by the participating in the conflict. international community for their right to Although the interdependence of modern maintain relations with other countries. states due to the development of the market Thus, the border is a policy of difference economy system and the processes of and border studies focus on the concept of globalization have complicated the picture of difference that exists on both sides of the the world. The continuous (re)construction border. of borders based on forms of socio-political organizations and nation-building remain a Border Policy and Interethnic Relations central problem in border studies. in Historical Retrospect In many ways, the tradition of studying Territorial and Border Policy of borders, state-oriented and political Kazakhstan, Ethnic Groups and Security geography in general is preserved as a result Central Asia has often been viewed of historical experience and is updated by through a security lens since the Great Game current events – redrawing the world map, when the British government was concerned border conflicts, unrecognized states, etc. about the threat that Russian expansion in One of the defining characteristics of the Central Asia might pose to India. Further, post-cold war world is the spread of a discourse during the Soviet period, there were concerns about "limitlessness" and the decline of about the large-scale spread of Islam in the nation-states, which were the driving region. At the present stage, researchers note force behind national self-determination the risks of conflicts arising as a result of lack processes in Central and Eastern Europe. of water resources, the spread of extremism, These sovereignty restoration movements etc. changed the political map of Europe and Thus, Central Asia is often portrayed by the world, created new borders, and dealt the media and experts as a region that is

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 25 threatened by many crises and instability, as to avoid inter-state and intra-state ethnic well as inter-ethnic conflicts. conflicts at the dawn of independence. Inter-ethnic peace, harmony and unity in One of the fundamental principles of modern Kazakhstan society are provided Kazakhstan's experience in conducting by various mechanisms and institutions. fieldwork on the delimitation process was The Assembly of People of Kazakhstan, the principle of "sensiblization", that is, a as a consultative and advisory body under deep understanding and sensitivity to the the President, is a traditional conductor peculiarities of the historical and economic of interethnic harmony and tolerance in nature of the life of residents of the border society, which at the same time integrates areas. Experience around the world shows ethno-cultural associations. However, that this not only helps prevent conflict before the idea of creating the Assembly, between residents, but it also eliminates any which was announced by the First President myths that may arise among local residents of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Nursultan after the border is established. Nazarbayev, in 1992, at the Forum of the The ethnic structure of the population People of Kazakhstan, interethnic harmony of Kazakhstan is quite a motley picture. and socio-political stability were laid The ethnic composition of the Population primarily exclusively by legal mechanisms. differs significantly by regions and cities of Historically, inter-ethnic peace, safety, Kazakhstan (see Table 1). and social harmony have been difficult for The South-Western regions such as states to maintain during a period of large- Kyzylorda, Atyrau and Mangistau are scale changes in their traditional paradigm almost mono-national, with the main associated with the departure of long- predominance of the population of the dominant forces in the country or region. In Kazakh nationality. The share of Kazakhs at the case of Kazakhstan, it was the time of the beginning of 2018 was more than 90% the Soviet Union collapse. Experts point out - 96.2%, 92.4% and 90.7%, respectively that the instability stems from safety gaps (Russians are the second largest in it -1.9%, associated with changes during the change 5.4% and 5.7%). The share of Kazakhs in of government. Aktobe (82.4%), Turkestan (76.3%), West Since Kazakhstan gained independence, Kazakhstan (75.9%), Zhambyl (72.6%) and the young Republic has faced strategic Almaty (71.8%) regions, as well as in Nur- territorial and border issues that other Sultan (78.2%) is higher than in Kazakhstan members of the former Soviet Union have as a whole. The share of Russians in them also faced, in addition to a number of socio- (except for the Turkestan region) ranges from economic and political issues. 10.0% in Zhambyl region (here the shares of Given that the Republic of Kazakhstan Dungans (5.1%), Turks (3.0%) and Uzbeks is the exclusive owner of a significant land (2.5%) to a very significant 19.6% in West (over 13 thousand km) and water (3 thousand Kazakhstan. In the Turkestan region, the km) borders, the systematic process of share of Uzbeks is very significant (16.7%), delimitation and demarcation of the border, and the smallest shares are of Russians and which began with the adoption of the Law Tajiks — 1.8% each. In Shymkent, the share "On the State Border of the Republic of of Kazakhs at the beginning of 2018 was Kazakhstan" in 1993, allowed the country 66.0%, Uzbeks-18.2%, and Russians-9.7%.

26 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 In the East Kazakhstan region, the share and 34.7%, respectively), and Russians are of Kazakhs is 60.0%, and Russians consist the most numerous in them (41.3% and 36.5%. Almost the same number of Kazakhs 49.7%). Significant Share of Ukrainians is in Almaty (59.5%). Russians make up (Kostanay-8.4%, North Kazakhstan-4.2%) 26.1% of the population here, and there is and Germans (3.1% and 3.5%, respectively). a significant proportion of Uyghurs (5.5%). According to official statistics, in most Kazakh people get slightly more than half border regions, except for the Northern ones, of the population in Pavlodar (51.8%), the titular ethnic group significantly prevails Karaganda (51.3%) and Akmola (51.0%) in number. regions. The share of Russians in them is However, when analyzing the ethnic 35.9%, 35.8% and 33.1%, respectively. composition of the border area population, These regions have a significant share of experts mainly attach more importance to Ukrainians (Akmola and Pavlodar — 4.4% the local level rather than the regional one, each, Karaganda — 3.0%) and Germans where the ratio under consideration is often (3.5%, 2.7% and 2.3%, respectively). In the quite comparable. It is such cases when Northern part of the country — Kostanay and an increase in ethnic and social tension is North Kazakhstan regions — Kazakhs make fraught with the actualization of territorial up less than half of the population (40.3% claims. Table 1. Ethnic structure of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan at the beginning of 2018 by regions

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 27 The existence of disputes with neighbor- on the delimitation of the state border ing states, even at the local level, is fraught of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the with ethnic and international conflicts, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, emergence of open confrontations and the Turkmenistan and the Republic of formation of uncontrolled zones. Therefore, Uzbekistan was established. As a result, the the overall approach of Kazakhstan to the parties came to agreements that reflect the processes of defining borders with neigh- interests of the border population. boring states was based on a three-stage The process of legal registration of the strategy: coordination, topographic map- border was completed in 2005, after the ping and legal registration. signing of the agreement on the delimitation Kazakhstan's long and successful border of the border between Kazakhstan and relations with China, which stem from the Russia. original Treaty of the 19th century, should Traditionally, the way borders are be highlighted separately. Since then, five managed affects stability at the global and more agreements have been concluded that local levels. Proper administration of buffer have allowed for the settlement of territorial zones ensures safety and reduces the risk of and border issues, taking into account the tension. interests of both countries. The demarcation Experts agree that borders do not just of the China-Kazakhstan border was "appear", but are the result of a long officially completed in 2002. border process. Therefore, it is difficult There was also a process of delimitation to overestimate the historical role of the of borders with other neighboring; that were successfully implemented territorial and former members of the USSR. Working border policy of Kazakhstan. with neighbors was based on the principle The settlement of border issues not only of maintaining the territorial status quo at helped to preserve safety, as well as maintain the time of independence (in accordance friendship and good-neighborliness with with Uti possidetis - the legal principle of border states, but also laid the foundation public international law). for inter-ethnic unity and social harmony On September 1, 1999, the Government within the country. Commission of the Republic of Kazakhstan

References:

1. Newman D., Anssi P. Fences and neighbours in the postmodern world: boundary narratives in political geography. Progress in Human Geography, #22, 1998. Pp. 186-207. 2. Haselsberger B. Decoding borders. Appreciating border impacts on space and people - Planning Theory & Practice, 15:4, 2014, pp. 505-526 3. Applied issues in international land boundary delimitation/ demarcation practices. Materials of the Seminar organized by the OSCE Borders Team in co-operation with the Lithuanian OSCE Chairmanship. 31 May to 1 June 2011 Vilnius, Lithuania. 4. “We, Kazakhstan” Analysis of the population of the Repub- lic of Kazakhstan by the Statistics Committee under the Min- istry of National Economy of the Republic Kazakhstan.

28 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 URL:file:///D:/%D0%94%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B8/Desktop/ %D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%2080%20%D1%81%D1%82% D1%80..pdf (Accessed 20.08.2020) 5. On the Government Commission of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the Delimitation of the State Border of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, Turkmenistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan. 6. Resolution of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 1283 of September 1, 1999. URL: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P990001283_/ history (Accessed 20.08.2020)

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 29 SRSTI 11.15.37 KAZAKH AND/OR KAZAKHSTANI? THE NATIONAL IDENTITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN AND ITS CITIZENS1

Beate Eschment, Ph.D. in History, Researcher, Centre for Eastern European and International Studies (ZOiS, Berlin, Germany)2

Abstract. In the early 1990s, the leadership of the new Republic of Kazakhstan responded to the challenges posed by the state’s multiethnicity by adopting a dual approach, promoted from the top down, of ethnic Kazakh identity for the Kazakh population and, simultaneously, a civic Kazakhstani identity for all citizens irrespective of ethnicity. This approach, which is strongly associated with the country’s First President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, is hailed by officialdom as a great success, with a unified nation of Kazakhstanis deemed to have been achieved in 2015. However, some more critical observers and academics point to an ongoing relationship of tension between the two forms of identity and between Kazakhs and non-Kazakhs in the real world. The results of a ZOiS survey conducted among Almaty’s multi-ethnic population in autumn 2019 show a strong predominance of ethnic self- identification among respondents for the first time; however, civic Kazakhstani identity also resonates so strongly that it is appropriate to refer to the population’s “multiple identity”. However, several social and political factors indicate that there are multiple interpretations of the term “Kazakhstani” as well, with considerable differences between Kazakhs and non-Kazakhs here. For the Kazakh majority, the terms “Kazakh” and “Kazakhstani” are largely synonymous; as they see it, there is no (longer a) special role for their non- Kazakh fellow citizens. It is precisely for this reason that non-Kazakhs attach importance to their Kazakhstani identity as a form of protection against assimilation or exclusion. First President Nursultan Nazarbaev’s legacy to his successor Kassym-Zhomart Tokaev, then, is

1 First published as a report at Centre for Eastern European and International Studies (Zentrum für Osteuropa- und internationale Studien (ZOiS). URL: https://www.zois-berlin.de/publikationen/zois-report/zois-report-42020/ 2 in collaboration with Taissiya Sutormina, Research Assistant, ZOiS, who performed a quantitative analysis of the sociological research

30 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 not a united nation of Kazakhstanis but a Kazakh-dominated country in which many small ethnic groups fear for their survival. It remains to be seen which course Tokaev will pursue in relation to nationalities policy. Key words: Kazakhstan, National Identity, Minorities

ҚАЗАҚ ЖӘНЕ/НЕМЕСЕ ҚАЗАҚСТАНДЫҚ? ҚАЗАҚСТАН РЕСПУБЛИКАСЫ МЕН ОНЫҢ АЗАМАТТАРЫНЫҢ ҰЛТТЫҚ БІРЕГЕЙЛІГІ Беате Эшмент

Аңдатпа. 1990-жылдардың басында жаңа Қазақстан Республикасының басшылығы мемлекеттің көпұлттылығынан туындаған сын-қатерлерге «жоғарыдан төменге қарай» екі түрлі бағыт тәсілін қабылдау арқылы жауап берді, оның бірі - қазақ халқы үшін этникалық қазақ бірегейлігі, сонымен бірге барлық азаматтарға ұлтына қарамастан, азаматтық қазақстандық бірегейлікке қол жеткізу. Елдің Тұңғыш Президенті Нұрсұлтан Назарбаевтың тікелей қатысуымен байланысты бұл тәсілді ресми билік үлкен жетістік ретінде бағалайды және қазақстандықтардың бірігуіне 2015 жылы қол жеткізілді деп танылады. Алайда кейбір сыни бақылаушылар мен ғалымдар бірегейліктің екі формасы арасындағы, шынайы өмірде этникалық қазақтар мен қазақстандықтардың арасындағы шиеленісті жағдайларға назар аударады. 2019 жылдың күзінде полиэтникалық Алматы қаласының тұрғындары арасында жүргізілген ZOiS сауалнамасының нәтижелері алғаш рет респонденттер арасында этникалық бірегейліктің басым екендігін көрсетті. Дегенмен, қазақстандық азаматтық бірегейлік те сондай резонанс тудырады, сондықтан халықтың «көпмөлшерлі бірегейлігі» туралы айту орынды. Алайда, бірнеше әлеуметтік және саяси факторлар «қазақстандықтар» терминінің көптеген түсіндірмелері бар екендігін көрсетеді, қазақтар мен өзге ұлттардың арасында айтарлықтай айырмашылықтар бар. Көптеген қазақтар үшін «қазақ» және «қазақстандықтар» ұғымдары жалпы мағынасы синонимдес болып келеді; олардың пікірінше, өзге ұлт өкілдері үшін түбегейлі айырмашылық жоқ (бұдан былай). Дәл осы себептен өзге ұлт өкілдері өздерінің қазақстандық бірегейлігіне ассимиляциядан немесе оқшауланудан қорғану түрі ретінде мән береді. Сонымен, Тұңғыш Президент Нұрсұлтан Назарбаевтың мұрагері Қасым-Жомарт Тоқаевқа қалдырған мұрасы - бұл қазақстандықтардың біртұтас ұлты емес, қазақтар көпшілік болып табылатын, көптеген ұсақ этностар өздерінің жойылып кетпеуінен қорқатын ел. Болашақта Тоқаевтың ұлттық саясатқа қатысты қандай бағытты ұстанатындығын алда көру қажет. Түйінді сөздер: Қазақстан, ұлттық бірегейлік, азшылық

КАЗАХ И/ИЛИ КАЗАХСТАНЕЦ? НАЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ ИДЕНТИЧНОСТЬ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН И ЕЁ ГРАЖДАН

Беате Эшмент

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 31 Аннотация. В начале 1990-х годов руководство новой Республики Казахстан отреагировало на вызовы, связанные с многонациональностью государства, приняв двуединый подход, продвигаемый сверху вниз, этнической казахской идентичности для казахского населения и, одновременно, гражданской казахстанской идентичности для всех граждан независимо от национальности. Такой подход, который связан при непосредственном участии Первого президента страны Нурсултана Назарбаева, оценивается официальными властями как большой успех, и объединение казахстанцев признается достигнутым в 2015 году. Однако некоторые более критические наблюдатели и ученые указывают на продолжающиеся напряженные отношения между двумя формами идентичности, между этническими казахами и остальными казахстанцами в реальном мире. Результаты опроса ZOiS, проведенного среди полиэтнического населения Алматы осенью 2019 года, впервые показывают сильное преобладание этнической самоидентификации среди респондентов; однако гражданская казахстанская идентичность также находит такой резонанс, что уместно говорить о «множественной идентичности» населения. Тем не менее, несколько социальных и политических факторов указывают на то, что существует множество толкований термина «казахстанцы», причем здесь имеются существенные различия между казахами и не-казахами. Для большинства казахов термины «казах» и «казахстанец» в значительной степени являются синонимами; на их взгляд, здесь нет (больше) принципиальной разницы для их неказахских сограждан. Именно по этой причине не-казахи придают значение своей казахстанской идентичности как форме защиты от ассимиляции или изоляции. Таким образом, наследство Первого Президента Нурсултана Назарбаева его преемнику Касым-Жомарту Токаеву — это не единая нация казахстанцев, а страна с преобладанием казахов, в которой многие небольшие этнические группы опасаются за свое выживание. Еще предстоит увидеть, какой курс будет проводить Токаев в отношении национальной политики. Ключевые слова: Казахстан, национальная идентичность, меньшинства

Introduction predicting Kazakhstan’s internal stability. “A Kazakh or Kazakhstani nation? This Above all, it is a benchmark for assessing the has been an unresolved dilemma for the past success of the nationalities policy pursued 25 years.” [1] Underlying this observation by the First President until he stepped by a Kazakh political scientist is a further down on 19 March 2019. The conceptual question: does the multi-ethnic Republic of development and implementation of this Kazakhstan view itself in ethnic terms as the dual approach coincide with his time in state of the Kazakh people, and / or in civic office and reflect his own strong and active terms as a state of all citizens irrespective commitment to this ideal, particularly in the of ethnicity—or both simultaneously, 1990s. as Nursultan Nazarbayev’s government For Kazakhstan’s officialdom, the decreed in the early 1990s? And was this success of Nazarbayev’s policy is beyond dual approach successful? The answer to this question: the multi-ethnic population’s latter question continues to be significant for achievement of unity as a single nation

32 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 of Kazakhstanis was proclaimed in 2015. has remained, despite significant quantitative However, critical voices in Kazakhstan, as shifts in the meantime. In addition to the well as international human rights experts eponymous Kazakhs, Kazakhstan was and academics, have been warning for some (and is) home to a substantial Russian time about the Kazakhisation of the country population—the second largest group—as or dispute the popular acceptance of a dual well as other ethnic groups which migrated identity that was imposed from the top to Kazakhstan during the Tsarist or Soviet down. era, such as Tatars and Ukrainians, or which A ZOiS survey conducted from were deported to Kazakhstan by Stalin 26 September to 26 October 2019 by (Germans, Poles, Koreans and others). Obshchestvennoe Mnenie (‘Public Opinion’ There is considerable variation in the urban- Research Institute) among 1,500 residents rural and countrywide distribution and (Kazakhs, Russians and members of five population concentration of these groups, smaller ethnic groups) of Almaty shows as well as striking differences in their that contrary to previous assertions, the socioeconomic status. large majority of respondents have a very Due to this configuration, the leadership strong sense of ethnic identity but also self- of the newly independent state—whose identify to a high degree in civic terms, i.e. members were all Soviet-era politicians, they have a multiple national identity. ethnically Kazakh but mainly Russian- This finding appears to confirm the speaking — under President Nursultan success of the government’s dual approach. Nazarbayev faced particular challenges in However, if it is analysed in relation to its relation to nation-building, and associated domestic and social context, the conclusion with it, the preservation of internal stability to be drawn is that there are considerable and legitimation of their own rule. What differences between Kazakhs and non- status should be conferred on Kazakhs and Kazakhs as regards their interpretation non-Kazakhs in the young republic? There of the term “Kazakhstani”. For Kazakhs, was a broad spectrum of opinion at first; on it is obviously synonymous with the one hand, there were calls from Kazakh “Kazakh”. The non-Kazakh population, nationalists for a Kazakh-speaking state of by contrast, has embraced the notion of the Kazakhs in which non-Kazakhs would “Kazakhstani” precisely because it appears at best be granted citizenship and otherwise to offer some protection against burgeoning merely be tolerated; on the other, there was Kazakhisation. Unity thus exists in name the concept of a multinational state in which alone; the reality suggests that there is Kazakhs and all other nationalities would reason to be concerned about growing live together on the basis of equality. Kazakhisation. The leadership in the mid-1990s opted for a dual approach with a profoundly Kazakh and Kazakhstani? — A Soviet imprint. Even the terminology chronological review used—Kazakh/Kazakhstani—originated When it gained its independence in the Soviet era; above all, the notion of in December 1991, Kazakhstan was ethnicity as a stable, objective factor was a a multinational state inhabited by component of Soviet ideology. The Republic approximately 130 ethnic groups—and so it of Kazakhstan was to be the homeland

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 33 of Kazakhs and Kazakhstanis alike—in other ethnic groups were meant to devote other words, of all citizens, irrespective of themselves, in (overtly non-political) local ethnicity. This dual approach to identity was organisations to the rediscovery of their enshrined in numerous documents over the own history, culture and language within past 30 years or so, as well as in speeches the framework of the common home. by Kazakhstani politicians, on posters and Their common language was Russian, of course in practical policy measures. which was granted special status under the However, there was never any clear definition Constitution (Art. 7,2). In order to promote or demarcation of the two concepts. In the development and implementation of speeches, government programmes and interethnic relations and also as a symbol of documents, Kazakh or Kazakhstani identity the “Kazakhstani” concept, the Assembly was emphasised, downplayed or modified as of Peoples of Kazakhstan (Assambleya the need arose, depending on the language, Narodov Kazakhstana = ANK) was founded audience and context. This makes the task in 1995, consisting of representatives of all of concisely summarising the two concepts the country’s ethnic as- sociations (EKOs)3 more challenging. Looking back over (1995: 28; 2020: 394) and with advisory almost 30 years, however, an overall trend rather than legislative powers. can be discerned. Until the early 2000s, the nationality Kazakh identity is understood as issue played a major role in official pol- icy monoethnic, primordial: the Republic of and was closely connected with the person Kazakhstan was formed on indigenous of Nazarbayev, who positioned himself as Kazakh soil [2] and for that reason, it is the guarantor of interethnic stability. In the ethnic heartland of the Kazakh people, particular, the institutions associated with who have no other country anywhere in the Kazakhstani identity (ANK and EKOs) are world. After decades of humiliation in the described as having been “an apple of the Soviet era, the Kazakhs’ own history and President’s eye” [4]. With some justification, nomadic culture were to be rediscovered and non-Kazakhs still regard the First President enhanced in status. The Kazakh language — even after his resignation in 2019 — as became the state language of the Republic their protector. of Kazakhstan (Constitution, Art. 7,1), even In 2002, it was then determined that the though it was only spoken by a minority of national cultures had reached a sufficiently the population in 1991. advanced stage in their revival that it was In parallel, a multi-ethnic civic, i.e. no longer necessary to promote the rebirth Kazakhstani identity was established, of the individual ethnic groups. The focus which was extended to all citizens, shifted to the development of a shared granting them equal constitutional rights Kazakhstani identity and Kazakhstani and protecting them from discrimination patriotism as the primary purpose of the (Constitution, Art. 14). The key phrase ANK, with the Kazakh language and culture in the 1990s was: “Kazakhstan – our now assigned a central and unifying role for common home”. Indeed, multiethnicity was all the country’s citizens [5]. actively promoted, for like the Kazakhs, all Just five years later, as part of the 2007

3 The abbreviation “EKO” (Etno-kul’turnye Ob”edineniya, i.e. ethno-cultural associations) is used throughout this paper. Initially, however, the associations were termed “Natsional’no-kul’turnye tsentry” (national culture centres).

34 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 constitutional reform, the ANK was granted role for Kazakhstan’s officialdom. constitutional status and the right to send Various programmes to promote unity and nine of its elected representatives directly patriotism, such as Mangilik El (2016), [8] to Parliament; it was also renamed the emphasise the common history, culture and Assembly of People of Kazakhstan (not language of all people living in Kazakhstan “peoples” as before) in an oblique reference and state that the cultural diversity of the to the unity of the population. people of Kazakhstan should be preserved. However, the public—or at least those Yet at the same time, the message is one elements with an interest in politics— of a “unified nation” and the content is remained divided, evident in 2009 during strongly Kazakh in orientation. Reports the unveiling of the Doctrine of National of events with potential to shake up the Unity, whose development Nazarbayev image of a unified Kazakhstani people, had entrusted to the ANK. This draft was a such as local interethnic conflicts, were profoundly Kazakhstani document which, suppressed—albeit with decreasing success while emphasising the special role of the in the age of the Internet and social media; Kazakh language, otherwise focused on likewise, “the term ‘Kazakhstani nation’ the development of all the ethnic groups has been gradually downsized in the public on the basis of equality. However, in discourse.” [9] 2010, following vocal protests by Kazakh nationalists, a document was adopted Diverse assessments of an ambiguous which no longer bore any resemblance to concept the draft; even the term “Kazakhstani” had Increasingly, “Kazakhstani” has disappeared. Instead, the role of the Kazakhs undoubtedly come to mean “Kazakh” in the state was described as central, with the over the years. Naturally, this shift was other ethnic groups to be clustered around not only expressed in words. There are the Kazakhs [6]. practical examples as well. In the 1990s, In summer 2015, Nazarbayev then the narrative of the shared experience of announced the end point, as it were, of the suffering during the Soviet era (without development. The country’s population, he any anti-Russian rhetoric in Kazakhstan) said, no longer consisted of representatives became a constituent element of civic of individual ethnic groups; now, a unified identity, unifying almost all the country’s nation of Kazakhstanis with equal rights and citizens. Kazakhs suffered terribly as a result a sense of identification with their state had of forced settlement and collectivisation emerged [7]. Typical slogans in circulation (known as Dzhut in Kazakh). In addition, since then are: “One people—one nation” large numbers of non-Kazakhs from various and “Unity in diversity”. ethnic groups were deported to Kazakhstan In previous years too, economic as victims of Stalinist oppression. These aspects (e.g. economic performance and latter groups would tell, often unprompted, competitiveness) rather than national issues how Kazakhs—despite facing starvation in the narrower sense had increasingly themselves — had helped the new arrivals been declared to be unifying factors for the survive in the steppes in winter. Over the Kazakhstani nation. Nationalities policy next 20 years, this evolved into a form per se played an ever more subordinate of state-ordered gratitude. 2016 saw the

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 35 introduction, at Nazarbayev’s initiative, of declined in the 1990s, while the number the Day of Gratitude, when non-Kazakhs of Kazakhs increased in absolute terms “are supposed to praise Kazakh hospitality due to their higher birth rate and the state- towards their ethnic groups” [10]. Nowadays, sponsored “return” of the Kazakh diaspora. official representatives of the small ethnic (To date, around one million oralman, i.e. groups take every opportunity to express returnees, have resettled in Kazakhstan.) their gratitude for the official nationalities These demographic changes were enough policy as well. In 2018, a “Monument of the to shift the centre of gravity in favour of the Oppressed Ethnic Groups’ Gratitude to the Kazakhs. What’s more, as the returnees did Kazakh People” (Qazaq eline myn algys) not speak Russian, they were vocal in their was erected in a new district of Astana. A demands for a stronger role for the Kazakh new memorial to the Kazakh victims of the language. There is no doubt that in the last Dzhut is located several kilometres away three decades, a form of state-sponsored in the old city centre. In other words, what Kazakhisation has occurred in relation was once the shared fate of Kazakhs and to the use of the Kazakh language (and non-Kazakhs is nowadays commemorated associated with it, employee recruitment, separately in both thematic and visual terms. etc.). The majority of non-Kazakhs have Human rights campaigners and journalists presumably come to terms with the advance have long been critical of Nazarbayev’s of Kazakh at the expense of Russian, and policy of Kazakhisation. In some cases, even the Russians are said to be showing however, their criticism has focused on more willingness to learn Kazakh [12]. aspects which can be observed in other Kazakhisation in the sense of discrimination post-Soviet states as well and which are not is perhaps most apparent in public service overtly nationalist, such as the renaming (government and administration, ministries, of towns and streets, often a form of de- security forces) and politics, but is not sovietisation4. Kazakhstan has also become statistically proven5. However, many non- more Kazakh in terms of the composition of Kazakhs have found their niche in business; its population in recent years. As a result of to the extent that some are visibly more emigration, not only of Russians but also of affluent than Kazakhs, this sometimes even Germans and various other ethnic groups, has the potential to trigger conflicts (see the proportion of non-Kazakhs steadily Table 1).

Table 1. Development of the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan’s population

1989 2009 2013 2020 (1.1.) Absolute figure % Absolute figure % Absolute figure % Absolute figure % Total 16,222,324 100 16,009,597 100 16,909,776 100 18,631,779 100 Kazakhs 6,486,029 40.0 10,096,763 63.1 11,002,868 65.07 12,764,821 68.51 Russians 6,092,377 37.6 3,793,764 23.7 3,701,713 21.89 3,512,925 18.85

4 See, for example, Mehmet Volkan Kasikci, The Soviet and the Post-Soviet: Street Names and National Discourse in Almaty, Europe-Asia-Studies 71(2019)8, pp. 1345 – 1366. 5 Assertions of this kind are invariably based on empirical observations, as the nationality of ministers, MPs, etc. is not stated openly and recruitment processes are of course not public. In a non-democratic, paternalistic system such as today’s Kazakhstan, many Kazakhs are also disadvantaged. See Beate Eschment, Elitenrekrutierung in Kasachstan. Nationalität, Klan, Region, Generation, Osteuropa 57 (2007) 8 – 9, pp. 175 – 194.

36 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 1989 2009 2013 2020 (1.1.) Absolute figure % Absolute figure % Absolute figure % Absolute figure % Uzbeks 330,417 2.0 456,997 2.9 507,509 3.0 605,137 3.25 Ukrainians 878,184 5.4 333,031 2.1 307,089 1.81 263,962 1.42 Uyghurs 181,155 1.1 224,713 1.4 242,119 1.43 274,509 1.47 Tatars 322,338 2.0 204,229 1.3 203,111 1.20 200,545 1.08 Germans 946,967 5.8 178,409 1.1 181,348 1.07 176,107 0.95 Koreans 101,336 0.6 100,385 0.6 104,406 0.62 108,551 0.58 Turks 49,219 0.3 97,015 0.6 103,049 0.61 113,421 0.61 Azerbaijanis 88,887 0.5 85,292 0.5 96,179 0.57 112,547 0.60 Belorussians 178,325 1.1 66,476 0.4 61,449 0.36 53,440 0.29 Dungans 29,785 0.2 51,944 0.3 59,898 0.35 74,409 0.40 Kurds 25,245 0.2 38,325 0.2 41,431 0.25 47,153 0.25 Tajiks 25,301 0.2 36,277 0.2 40,868 0.24 50,121 0.27 Poles 59,321 0.4 34,057 0.2 32,963 0.20 29,728 0.16 Chechens 49,007 0.3 31,431 0.2 31,974 0.19 33,507 0.18 Kyrgyzs 13,718 0.1 23,274 0.1 29,803 0.18 N/A N/A Bashkirs 41,060 0.3 17,263 0.1 17,006 0.10 16,674 0.09 Ingushs 19,523 0.1 15,120 0.1 15,607 0.10 N/A N/A Moldovans 32,352 0.2 14,245 0.1 14,083 0.08 N/A N/A Armenians 18,458 0.1 13,776 0.1 14,705 0.09 N/A N/A Others 253,320 1.3 96,811 0.8 100,598 0.59 194,222 1.04 Sources: Natsional’nyi sostav, veroispovedanie i vladeniya yazykami v Respublike Kazakhstan. Itogi Natsional’noi perepisi naseleniya 2009 goda v Respublike Kazakhstan, Astana 2010, https://stat.gov.kz/api/ getFile/?docId=WC16200032705; Etnodemograficheskii Ezhegodnik Kazakhstana. Astana 2013, https://stat.gov.kz/ api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT098189; Chislennost’ naseleniya Republiki Kazakhstan po otdelnym etnosam na nachalo 2020 g., https://www.stat.gov.kz/api/ getFile/?docId=ESTAT355258; author’s own calculations. Aside from apologist tributes from the development of national identity among Kazakhstani academics close to the Kazakhstan’s citizens posit a negative government, assessments of the dual relationship of tension between the Kazakh approach to Kazakh/Kazakhstani identity and the Kazakhstani approach. There is (and, indeed, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s mention of “confrontation” [15] between nationalities policy as a whole) are the two identities, which are described surprisingly diverse and do not fit into a as contradicting [16], incompatible [17], “Western criticism/plaudits from the post- controversial [18] and irreconcilable [19]. Soviet world” schematic. Some Western Few academics ascribe to the view that academics, for example, underline the the two identities exist in parallel or are difficulties faced by the leadership in the complementary [20]. Moreover, it is often early days and view the ambiguity of the two postulated that the populace refuses to identities positively on the grounds that it accept the policy: the Kazakhs, it is claimed, placates Kazakh and Russian nationalists and deny the existence of a Kazakhstani nation, ultimately preserves a balance of interests while non-Kazakhs reject it on the grounds [14]. However, like the author cited at the that it is imposed by Kazakhs.[21] start of this paper, most academic studies of The empirical basis for all these

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 37 assertions is thin, as well as problematical. confirm a strong prevalence of Kazakhstani A recent ethnological research study on the civic identity over ethnic identity. In a 2004 Tatars of Kazakhstan concludes that they survey, for example, 57% of respondents are have utilised the opportunities afforded by reported to have self-identified as citizens of the “Kazakhstani” concept to revitalise their Kazakhstan and 26% as members of a local own culture [22] and even “to inhabit a space community, with just 4.9% mentioning of autonomy” [23]. A qualitative survey of their ethnicity as the primary marker [26]. members of various ethnic groups initiated The results of two 2009 surveys mentioned by the KAS in 2017 concludes that the in the literature are less extreme: 53% of Kazakhstani model enjoys broad support, respondents described their civic identity and that although these individuals identify as primary, compared with 26% for ethnic a need for improvement in some areas, they identity in the first case;[27] 75.1% identified have a positive attitude towards the work primarily as citizens of Kazakhstan and only of the ANK and EKOs [24]. In interviews around 12% defined them- selves primarily conducted by the author of the present article in terms of their ethnicity [28] in the second. in autumn 2018, representatives of various The results of two surveys conducted in EKOs emphasised that they saw themselves 2016 [29] deviate from this schematic, not as Kazakhstanis. Alexander Diener notes as in terms of their basic finding that there is a a caveat, however, that “many ‘non-titular’ strong predominance of civic identity, but peoples are relatively resigned to their in that the questionnaire apparently allowed ‘second among equals’ status” [25]. respondents to choose both ethnic and The results of initial, methodologically civic identity in parallel for the first time. less refined quantitative surveys on the topic Accordingly, this opinion survey was the of national identity in the 1990s suggest that first to ascertain that a significant number at that time, adjustment problems were still of respondents identified in both ethnic and prevalent; many respondents are reported civic terms. to have self-identified as Soviet citizens or even, by way of a substitute, with the CIS, Almaty residents’ identities — survey while Russians additionally identified with findings Russia. Many subsequent surveys focused Based on these findings, a survey solely on Kazakhs and Russians; their commissioned by ZOiS was conducted in questions allowed respondents to choose Almaty in September / October 2019: one or the other—either a civic or an ethnic 1. The strength of respondents’ sense of identity — and / or drew their conclusions ethnic and civic identity was investigated in about identity from other questions (e. g. two separate questions. about national pride or trust in members 2. The survey included not only Russians of other ethnic groups). Last but not least, and Kazakhs but also members of several information was often lacking about the small ethnic groups. parameters of the surveys, such as location, 3. The statistical bases were disclosed. number of respondents and methodology. Almaty is the most populous city in In contrast to the unproven assertations Kazakhstan, with 1,927,700 inhabit- ants referred to above, however, they all appear to (1.3.2020)6, i.e. around 10% of the country’s

6 https://stat.gov.kz/region/268020.

38 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 population. It is probably also the republic’s of the population group designated as small most multinational city. However, it is ethnic groups (28,161 out of 266,065)9. not representative of the composition of Kazakhstan’s population as a whole: above Table 2. Ethnic composition all, the proportion of Kazakhs—60%—is of Almaty’s population, 2019 lower than the national average, while the Absolute figure % proportion of Russians and Uzbeks (now Total 1,854,656 100 the third largest ethnic group) is higher7. Kazakhs 1,120,532 60.42 Most EKOs are still headquartered in Russians 468,059 25.24 Almaty, although Astana / Nur-Sultan Uyghurs 101,059 5.45 became the capital in 1997 and is the seat Koreans 34,089 1.84 of the ANK and all the political institutions. Tatars 24,733 1.33 Almaty recorded Kazakhstan’s second Azerbaijanis 13,340 0.72 highest gross regional product in 2019 after Uzbeks 12,034 0.65 the oil-producing region of Atyrau; the Ukrainians 10,412 0.56 city is reported to have generated 20.9% of Dungans 10,340 0.56 national GDP8. The choice of Almaty as the Turks 9,618 0.52 location for the survey meant that a large Kyrgyzs 8,738 0.47 Germans 7,564 0.41 proportion of the population was covered. Kurds 3,941 0.21 However, neither its composition nor its Chechens 2,920 0.16 socioeconomic conditions are typical of the Ingushs 2,756 0.15 country as a whole. Armenians 2,242 0.12 The same applies to the selection of Belorussians 1,567 0.08 ethnic groups: 215 representatives of each Others 20,708 1.12 of the two largest ethnic groups in the city Source: https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT itself and the country at large, i.e. Kazakhs 306580; author’s own calculations and Russians, were surveyed, along with the same number of representatives of five other The analysis of the answers provided by ethnic groups (listed in alphabetical order): all respondents to the separate questions Armenian, Chechen, Dungan, Kurdish and about the strength of their ethnic and Kyrgyz. This means that the survey covered Kazakhstani (i.e. civic) identity shows that Christian, Muslim, early immigrant, in contrast to previous surveys, there is a deportee and newcomer communities, strong predominance of ethnic identity. some close to the Kazakhs in terms of their The overall difference between the highest language and traditions, others differing categories amounts to almost one-third (see strongly. The survey was thus representative Figure 1). However, there is also a large of 28,181 Almaty residents, i.e. 1.6% of the group that attaches considerable importance former capital’s total population and 10.6% to both identities.

7 Most data on the ethnic composition of the population are estimates at best as the last census in Kazakhstan took place in 2009 and the next one has been postponed from 2019 until October 2021 8 https://stat.gov.kz/region/268020/news/ESTAT349329; Kasachstan 2020. Daten-Fakten-Hintergrunde, Botschaft der RK in Deutschland, Berlin 2020, pp. 243 – 245. Official statistics in Kazakhstan do not provide information on real incomes. Wages and living costs are relatively high in Almaty, as is the official unemployment rate (5.1 % in the fourth quarter of 2019). Even so, the standard of living in Almaty is presumably much higher than the national average. 9 https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT306580.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 39 Figure 1. Ethnic and civic identity In order to determine whether the strength strength: overview of ethnic identity has any influence on civic identity, regression analysis was performed on the data. The responses from the survey were compiled into a dataset using the quota method and were then presented in a bivariate and a logistic regression model. In order to compare the effects, (standardised) beta coefficients were used; the confidence interval was set at 95 %. This produced a positive correlation between ethnic and Source: ZOiS civic Kazakhstani identity for Kazakhs For further analysis, the five small ethnic and small ethnic groups. This means that groups were clustered into a single group and respondents from the “Kazakh” group and the answers were then collated separately for “small ethnic” groups with a strong ethnic this group, for Kazakhs and for Russians and identity also tend to have a stronger civic presented as an average for each (see Figure identity. For Kazakhs, the supportive effect 2). This shows that in all three groups, ethnic is stronger than for the small ethnic groups. identity predominates over Kazakhstani By contrast, no significant correlation identity, although the latter also scores highly. between the strength of ethnic and civic A clear difference can be discerned, however: identity was demonstrated for the Russians. for Kazakhs, the two identities are broadly To sum up, then, all respondents show similar, whereas for Russians and small a very high degree of attachment to their ethnic groups, there is divergence between ethnic identity. At the same time, their the two and ethnic identity has noticeably commitment to civic identity is also very more resonance than civic Kazakhstani marked, such that it is appropriate to talk identity. The Russian respondents identified about multiple identity in the case of most most strongly with their ethnic group. respondents. Characteristic differences in the relationship between the two identities Figure 2. Ethnic and civic identity strength were observed between the three groups by ethnic groups (mean parameters) analysed; however, the findings of other recent analyses were confirmed, in that for the respondents themselves, there is obviously no conflict be- tween their civic identity as Kazakhstanis and their identity as members of their ethnic group. On the contrary, a marked ethnic identity appears to strengthen civic identity in the case of Kazakhs and small ethnic groups10. What might explain the considerable differences in the strength of civic and Source: ZOiS

10 A similar conclusion was drawn by Sharipova, Burkhanov, Alpeisova,op.cit., p. 215: “Unexpectedly, we found that trust in the fellow ethnic group members also has a positive impact on civic-nationalist sentiments. The more the people have in common with their fellow ethnic members, the more they support civic nationalism.”

40 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 national identity compared with previous lived and localised, and the number of these surveys? It is conceivable that the incidents (about ten are known to have population of Almaty differs more strongly occurred) is not worryingly high. Officials from the rest of the country than previously in Kazakhstan were at pains to depict these assumed. However, several earlier surveys incidents as every-day conflicts with no also appear to have focused on the former ethnic component. And indeed, economic capital. Another factor which cannot be inequality appears to have been the ruled out is that views may have changed underlying cause of many of these incidents, between 2016, i.e. the year of the last with crime often the trigger. However, these surveys mentioned, and 2019 following the conflicts invariably involved Kazakhs on resignation (at least formally) of Nursultan the one hand and members of a non-Kazakh Nazarbayev, the architect of the dual ethnic group on the other. These incidents approach. Above all, however, it is likely generally erupted when a non-Kazakh that the shift can be explained by the much committed a crime against a Kazakh. Intra- stronger representation of the small ethnic ethnic crime among Kazakhs did not have groups in the survey (and hence the much this effect. In many instances, the Kazakhs smaller proportion of Russians, who are concerned demanded the deportation of all in a different position). The findings thus members of the contested ethnic group; in demonstrate the importance of involving other words, they were not thinking like these groups in surveys of this kind. Kazakhstanis but viewed Kazakhstan as the country of Kazakhs, with other ethnic Kazakhs and other Kazakhstanis groups merely granted visitors’ rights that On the face of it, these results appear to could be withdrawn at any time. confirm the success of the ambiguous dual Statements by official representatives approach pursued by the First President. of non-Kazakh ethnic groups are infused The populace identifies, albeit with gradual with the desire to safeguard the continued variations, both with their ethnic group and formal existence of their community in with the nation of Kazakhstanis, as was Kazakhstan, coupled with expressions the original ambition (although national of their attachment to Kazakhstan. This unity does not seem to have been achieved implies, conversely, that they are worried as completely as official statements would about exclusion, assimilation or the loss of have us believe.) However, a whole series their equal rights. For example, it was the of events and observations in the real-world ethnic groups’ representatives who wanted politics and society of Kazakhstan would Section 5 (Natsionalnost’)12 to continue to appear to conflict with this impression, just be included in the passports of Kazakhstan’s a few of which can be mentioned here. citizens, despite frequent international Interethnic relations in Kazakhstan have claims that it was discriminatory. The been surprisingly peaceful over the past amendment of the official designation three decades. The sporadic outbreaks of “ethnic group” was also adopted at their interethnic violence11 were always short- request, as the previous terms “diaspora”

11 Recently, on 7.2.2020, violent clashes between Kazakhs and Dungans in Zhambyl Province in southern Kazakhstan are reported to have left 11 dead and more than 40 injured. 12 The inclusion of an “ethnicity” section dates back to the Soviet era. Children from mixed marriages can choose their preferred ethnicity at the age of 18.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 41 and/or “national minority” were felt to be Kazakhs self-identify as Kazakhstanis marginalising and discriminatory13. because — in stark contrast to the Kazakhs’ At the same time, overt proclamations interpretation — they see the embracing of of loyalty to Kazakhstani identity can be Kazakhstani identity as a way of protecting observed from non-Kazakh ethnic groups. themselves from Kazakhisation, exclusion During my interviews with representatives and / or assimilation. After all, in terms of of various EKOs in Astana (as it was then the original concept, Kazakhstani identity called) and Almaty, it was striking that was the roof under which they could almost every interlocutor, throughout the develop and live their ethnic identity. This is course of our conversations, exclaimed: borne out by the fact that among the ethnic “We are all Kazakhstanis!” several times groups surveyed, there is a close correlation and only revealed more precise details between the relative strengths of the ethnic of their own ethnicity after repeating and the civic identity: anyone with a strong this assertion. A visual expression of this sense of ethnic identity is of course more overt commitment to Kazakhstan could likely to be worried about losing it. The be observed, for example, at the Nauryz original and deliberate ambiguity of the procession14 in Almaty in 2019: while the government’s approach, particularly its large majority of Kazakh participants, clad concept of Kazakhstani identity, has thus in elaborate costumes, followed behind the become self-sustaining and has produced flag of the city of Almaty, the non-Kazakh worrying and unintended differences in participants, also in national dress, were interpretation within the populace as well. the only ones who held a small flag of If this interpretation is correct, the findings Kazakhstan in their hands. of our survey give less cause for satisfaction These observations suggest that within from the government’s perspective; on the united nation of Kazakhstanis, there are the contrary, they may well be a cause fracture lines which are not reflected in the for concern. It is not just that less internal survey results. One possible explanation is unity exists than would initially appear. that the Kazakhs and representatives of small The hidden fears of non-Kazakhs (and the ethnic groups who were surveyed have very intermittent resurgence of conflicts) point different motives for their expression of to potential for unrest on the Kazakh side. commitment to a Kazakhstani identity and / The current economic downturn is likely to or attach different meanings to it. However, make matters worse. this aspect has not been explored in any The core of the problem appears to lie of the surveys. The following thoughts are in a seemingly illogical observation: the therefore largely hypothetical. Kazakhs have obviously adopted the form For Kazakhs, there is growing of ethnic identity intended for them in the convergence between their own identity dual concept, while non-Kazakhs have as Kazakhs and the national identity of the identified and utilised the opportunities state of Kazakhstan, whereas the above afforded by Kazakhstani identity. observations suggest that many non- For genuine coexistence of the entire

13 As stated by several Kazakh experts to the author. 14 The word “Nauryz” is of Persian origin and means “new day”. It is celebrated by Iranian and Turkic-speaking communities on the day of the vernal equinox to mark the beginning of spring. Hilda C. Eitzen, Nawriz in Kazakstan: scenarios of managing diversity, Ingvar Svanberg (ed.), Contemporary Kazaks: Cultural and Social Perspectives, Richmond 1999, pp. 73 – 102.

42 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 population, however, the Kazakhs would posed in the title of this report about the have had to identify a place for themselves national identity of Kazakhstan’s citizens in the originally postulated common home can be answered as follows: the overall of all Kazakhstanis as well. Admittedly, trend is towards a Kazakh common home they were initially assigned an integrating in which the non-Kazakh ethnic groups can function and, later, even a central role in the (hopefully) keep a place for themselves. nation-building process, but they never took Despite official statements to the contrary, on the role intended for them; instead, they interethnic relations in Kazakhstan in regarded the ANK, for example, as merely the Nazarbayev era were not regulated representing the interests of non-Kazakhs conclusively and to everyone’s advantage, and even considered that it put them at but require further policy monitoring, e.g. a disadvantage15. This clearly reflects an as regards the protection of minority rights, omission by policy-makers, who need to as well as further academic study, focusing, take urgent action to protect non-Kazakhs for example, on the status of individual here16. ethnic groups, as along with qualitative interviews about their interpretation of the Conclusion term “Kazakhstani”. Our survey showed that the citizens of It remains to be seen whether the Kazakhstan self-identify both in civic terms forthcoming changes to nationalities policy as Kazakhstanis and as members of their under Kassym-Zhomart Tokaev will hold ethnic group, in line with the leadership’s the line established by his predecessor and ambition. However, empirical observations the architect of dual but ambiguous identity. and interviews suggest that Kazakhs and His scope still appears to be limited, for as non-Kazakhs identify as Kazakhstanis one of the numerous powers that Nazarbayev for different and perhaps even conflicting secured for himself for his retirement is his reasons. As things stand, the question role as Chair of the ANK.

References:

1. Ismagambetov T. Natsstroitel’stvo v Kazakhstane: mezhdu kazakhstan- skim narodom i natsiei – CA-portal.ru, 14.6.2018, http://www.ca-por- tal.ru/article:43289. (Accessed 17.6.2020) 2. The Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty 1995, Pream- ble. URL: https://www.akorda.kz/en/official_documents/constitution. (Accessed 17.6.2020) 3. Jorn Holm-Hansen, Territorial and ethno-cultural self-government in nation-building Kazakhstan, NIBR Report 1997:7, p. 64. 4. O Strategii Assamblei naroda Kazakhstana i Polozhenii ob Assamblee naroda Kazakhstana, Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, 1.5.2002. 5. Doktrina natsional’nogo edinstva Kazakhstana, Proekt, Astana 2009, https://www.zakon.kz/152641-doktrina-nacionalnogo-edinstva.html; Doktrina natsional’nogo edinstva, (2010). URL: https://assembly.kz/ ank/Доктринанациональногоединства.pdf. (Accessed 17.6.2020)

15 Formally, Kazakh ethnic associations may also join the ANK; however, no such groupings exist. At present, some prominent Kazakh individuals are members of the ANK. 16 This is also pointed out by Kazakhstani experts in private conversations.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 43 6. Prezident zayavil o tom, chto v strane sformirovalas’ kazakhstanskaya natsiya, URL: https://kapital.kz/gosudarstvo/43192/prezident-zayavil- o-tom-chto-v-strane-sformirovalas-kazakh- stanskaya-natsiya.html. (Accessed 17.6.2020) 7. Patrioticheskiij akt Mangilik El, Pol’nyi tekst, Kazakhstanskaya Prav- da, 26.4.2016. URL: https:// www.kazpravda.kz/news/politika/patri- oticheskii-akt--mangilik-el-polnii-tekst. (Accessed 17.6.2020) 8. Burkhanov A. Multiculturalism and Nation-Building in Kazakhstan: Trends in Media Discourse, State Policy, and Popular Perceptions, The Muslim World 110(2019)1, pp. 24 – 39, here p. 33. 9. Ibid. 10. Davenel Y., Yim Eu. Minority Assimilation and Nation-Building in Kazakhstan, Nation-Building and Identity in the Post-Soviet Space: New Tools and Approaches, Rico Isaacs, Abel Polese (eds.), London NY 2016, pp. 48 – 64, here p. 49; Dina Sharipova, Aziz Burkhanov, Alma Alpeissova, The Determinants of Civic and Ethnic Nationalisms in Kazakhstan: Evidence from the Grass-Roots Level, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 23(2017)2, pp. 203 – 226, here pp. 214; 220. 11. For example, Donnacha Ó Beacháin, Rob Kevlihan, Threading a nee- dle: Kazakhstan between civic and ethno-nationalist state-building, Na- tions and Nationalism 19(2013)2, pp. 337–356, here 350 f.; Alexander C. Diener, Imagining Kazakhstani-stan: Negotiations of Homeland and Titular Nationality, Kazakhstan in the Making: Legitimacy, Symbols, and Social Changes, Marlene Laruelle (ed.), Lanham 2016, pp. 131– 154, here p. 132. 12. Svetlana Shakirova, Country Image of Kazakhstan: From Stereotype and Critique to Positive National Branding, Journal of Eastern Europe- an and Central Asian Research 2(2015)1, pp. 1 – 12, here p. 1; Rustem Kadyrzhanov, Kazakhi i Kazakhstantsy, in: ORSAM Chernomorskii mezhdunarodnyi doklad 75, 13.8.2011, Russian version pp. 27 – 42, here p. 28. URL: https:// www.academia.edu/40249491/ORSAM_Anal- iz_75_Rustem_Kadyrzhanov_Kazaklar_ve_ Kazakistanl%C4%B1lar. (Accessed 17.6.2020) 13. Burkhanov A., Sharipova D. Kazakhstan’s Civic-National Identity, in: Nationalism and identity construction in Central Asia: Dimensions, Dy- namics, and Directions, Mariya Y. Omelicheva (ed.), Lanham 2015, pp. 21 – 36, here p. 30. 14. Holm-Hansen J. Nation-Building in Kazakhstan: Civic, titular and mul- tiple re-ethnification, in: Arne Tesli, Jorn Holm-Hansen (eds.), Building the State: Political mobilisation, rhetoric and social differentiation in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, (Oslo) 1999, NIBR’s PLUSS series 2 – 99, pp. 43 – 108, here p. 55. 15. Aitymbetov N., Toktarov Y., Ormakhanova Y. Nation-Building in Ka- zakhstan: Kazakh and Kazakhstani Identities Controversy, Bilig Sum- mer 2015 (74), pp. 1 – 19, here p. 3. 16. Holm-Hansen, Territorial, op.cit., p. 8. 17. Kesici Ö. The Dilemma in the Nation-Building Process: The Kazakh or Kazakhstani Nation? - Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe 10(2011)1, pp. 31 – 58, here p. 55; Nurtai Mustafaev, Ka- zakhstanskaya model’ etnopolitiki. Interesy, resursy i ogranichiteli, in: Kazakhstanskaya model’ etnopolitiki, Almaty 2002, pp. 53 – 68, here p. 54 f; Marlene Laruelle, The Three Discursive Paradigms of State Iden- tity in Kazakhstan, in: Nationalism and identity construction in Central Asia: Dimensions, Dynamics, and Directions, Mariya Y. Omelicheva (ed.), Lanham 2015, pp. 1 – 29, here p. 16. 18. For example, Aitymbetov et al., op.cit., p. 5; Kadyrzhanov, op.cit., p. 30. 19. Davenel, Yim, op.cit., p. 49. 20. Davenel Y., Cultural mobilization in post-Soviet Kazakhstan: views from the state and from non-titular nationalities compared, Central Asian Survey 31(2012)1, pp. 17 – 29, here p.28.

44 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 21. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Zusammenleben ethnischer Gruppen in Kasachstan, Almaty 2017 / 18. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/323571799_Zusammenleben_ethnis-cher_Gruppen_in_ Kasachstan, pp. 70 – 74. (Accessed 17.6.2020) 22. Diener, op. cit., p. 141. 23. Quoted in Burkhanov, op. cit., p. 35. 24. Kazakhstan Institute of Social and Economic Information and Fore- casting (KISEIP), quoted in Scott Spehr, Nargis Kassenova, Kazakh- stan: constructing identity in a post-Soviet society, Asian Ethnicity 13(2012)2, pp. 135 – 151, here p. 142. 25. Survey by the Social Funds Strategy, quoted in Aitymbetov et al., op.cit., p. 13f. 26. https://www.demos.kz/rus/?poll=53 ; Sharipova, Burkhanov, Alpeisso- va, op. cit., pp. 203 – 226.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 45 SRSTI 11.15.37 ON THE INFLUENCE OF POST-SOVIET ETHNODEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS ON THE CULTURAL INTEGRATION OF ETHNOSES IN KAZAKHSTAN*

Rustem Kadyrzhanov Chief Research Fellow of the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies of the Committee of Science, MES RK, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor

Abstract. In the article, the influence of the post-Soviet ethno-demographic dynamics upon prospects of the cultural integration of ethnic groups in Kazakhstan is examined. The emphasis in the work is put on the analysis of the post-Soviet ethnodemographic dynamics which has led to the absolute and relative numeric prevalence of the Kazakhs in the population of Kazakhstan upon prospects of the cultural integration of ethnic groups on the basis of the Kazakh language and culture. It is proved that, despite the popular opinion, the demographic domination of the Kazakhs in the cities does not lead to the cultural integration of ethnic groups on the basis of the Kazakh language and culture. Key words: Ethno-demographic dynamics, Ethnic group, Kazakhstan, Cultural integration.

* First published as Kadyrzhanov P. O vliyanii postsovetskoj etnodemograficheskoj dinamiki na kul’turnuyuintegraciyu etnosov v Kazahstane / Kazahstan-Spektr, №2, 2019 - pp. 79-91

46 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 ҚАЗАҚСТАНДАҒЫ ЭТНОСТАРДЫҢ МӘДЕНИ ИНТЕГРАЦИЯСЫНА ПОСТКЕҢЕСТІК ЭТНОДЕМОГРАФИЯЛЫҚ ДИНАМИКАНЫҢ ЫҚПАЛЫ ТУРАЛЫ Рүстем Қадыржанов Аңдатпа. Мақалада Қазақстандағы этностардың мәдени интеграцияның перспективаларға постсоветтік этнодемографиялық динамиканың әсері зерттеледі. Бұл жұмыста қазақ тілі мен мәдениет негізіндегі этностардың мәдени интеграцияның перспективаларға қазіргі Қазақстанның адам санының қазақтардың абсолюттік және салыстырмалы басымдылыққа әкеп жеткізген постсоветтік этнодемографиялық динамиканың әсері талдауына акцент қойылады. Қоғамдағы кең тараған пікіріне қарамастан, қазақтардын қалалардағы басымдылығы қазақ тілі мен мәдениет негізіндегі этностардың мәдени интеграцияның орнатуына міндетті түрде әкелмейтіндегі мақалада көрсетілген. Түйін сөздер: этнодемографиялық динамика, этнос, Қазақстан, мәдени интеграция.

О ВЛИЯНИИ ПОСТСОВЕТСКОЙ ЭТНОДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЙ ДИНАМИКИ НА КУЛЬТУРНУЮ ИНТЕГРАЦИЮ ЭТНОСОВ В КАЗАХСТАНЕ

Рустем Кадыржанов Аннотация. В данной работе рассматривается влияние постсоветской этнодемографической динамики на перспективы культурной интеграции этносов в Казахстане. Акцент в работе ставится на анализ влияния постсоветской этнодемографической динамики, приведшей к абсолютному и относительному численному преобладанию казахов в общем населении современного Казахстана, на перспективы культурной интеграции этносов на основе казахского языка и культуры. Показывается, что, вопреки распространенному мнению, демографическое доминирование казахов в городах не означает утверждения культурной интеграции этносов на основе казахского языка и культуры. Ключевые слова: этнодемографическая динамика, этнос, Казахстан, культурная интеграция.

Introduction the USSR in a number of post-Soviet states The demographic approach, aimed at the contributed to the widespread use of this study of socio-political processes under the approach in post-Soviet researches. These influence of the demographic proportions researches are related to the investigation of a multi-ethnic society, is widespread of the dominance of the titular nation, in in the social cognition. The demographic particular, the dominance of a language changes that occurred after the collapse of of the titular nation in the social space of

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 47 post-Soviet societies under the influence major role in this work is played by the of various factors, where the demographic theory of national building in its projection factor takes a central position. Among the onto the post-Soviet realities. Based on the post-Soviet states that have experienced the proximity of concepts of national building significant demographic changes over the and national integration, the article focuses years of independence, Kazakhstan is well on the cultural integration of ethnic groups marked. Here, in the post-Soviet period, the in Kazakhstan. titular nation became a significant majority of the multi-ethnic population both in On the concept of cultural integration the country as a whole and in most of its of ethnic groups regions, as well as cities. In this regard, the The cultural integration of ethnic groups question arises concerning the impact of means a way of existence of the multi- post-Soviet ethno-demographic dynamics ethnic society where one of languages and​​ on the cultural integration of ethnic groups associated culture are common to all ethnic in Kazakhstan. In other words, may there groups, which allows ethnic groups to be a direct correlation between the growth coexist, understand each other and interact of the titular nation among the population on this base. of Kazakhstan and the confirmation of In the culturally integrated multi-ethnic the cultural integration of ethnic groups society, the existence of a language which is based on Kazakh language and culture? common for all ethnic groups, as well as the A similar correlation takes place in many associated culture, means a special position post-Soviet states, primarily in Central of that ethnic group the language of which Asia and the Caucasus. Such a correlation is used by all other ethnic groups in this is one of the main goals of the post-Soviet society. This position can be characterized model of national building and Kazakhstan as dominant. Consequently, other ethnic seeks to achieve it in its national policy. groups of society, forced or voluntarily In Kazakhstan itself, there are ongoing accepting the language and culture of one discussions on how the post-Soviet ethno- of the ethnic groups, are in a subordinate demographic dynamics affects the cultural position in the cultural and linguistic sphere integration of the multi-ethnic society. Our with regard to this ethnic group. In other article is included in this discussion and words, the cultural integration of society offers its own view on the issue of impact of implies the relationship of domination post-Soviet ethno-demographic dynamics and subordination between ethnic groups on the cultural integration of ethnic groups and other social groups. These definition in Kazakhstan. and description of the cultural integration of ethnic groups assumes the special Methodology significance of the language and language The main research method in this article relations in which ethnic groups enter in the is a demographic approach that focuses on process of cultural integration of the multi- the study of the cultural integration of ethnic ethnic society. The language is a cultural- groups in multi-ethnic Kazakhstan under the symbolic code uniting people in social influence of changes in ethno-demographic communities. proportions in the post-Soviet period. A Without the cultural integration of the

48 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 multi-ethnic society on the basis of one based on the Russian language and Russian- language and culture, it is impossible to Soviet culture developed in Kazakhstan in build a single nation from this society. the Soviet period, becoming the result of the Moreover, the nation is understood to be the policy of internationalism of the communist unity of political and cultural communities regime. The ideologized character of the within a certain territory. Ernest Gellner, national policy of the regime had an aim one of the classics of the theory of nation of the formation of the Soviet people as “a and nationalism, defines the nation as new historical community of people.” The a community arising on the ground of achievement of this goal was carried out “culture and on the basis of its coincidence through politics, the main motto of which with political units. Under these conditions, was “The prosperity and rapprochement people want to be politically united with of soviet nations”. Obviously, the all those, and only with those who belong “rapprochement” of nations was carried to the same culture. Accordingly, states out on the basis of the Russian language strive to combine their borders with the and Soviet culture. This policy led to the borders of their cultures and to protect and Russification of many Soviet nations, in introduce their cultures within the limits of what connection the Kazakhs were among their powers” [1, p. 126-127]. the most Russified nations. The cultural integration of ethnic groups Main forms of the cultural integration based on the Kazakh language and culture of ethnic groups in Kazakhstan is already a post-Soviet phenomenon. Today, in Kazakhstan, there are two Culturally, the basis of the nation being cultural integrations of ethnic groups. formed in post-Soviet states is now One of them is an integration based on declared not the Russian language and the Russian language and Russian-Soviet Russian-Soviet culture, but the language culture, the other one is the cultural and culture of the titular nation, which are integration of ethnic groups based on the given the decisive importance within the Kazakh language and culture. A comparison frameworks of the post-Soviet model of of these two integrations shows that the national building. cultural integration based on the Russian This is determined by the fact that the language is the main one, since it covers all ethno-cultural understanding of the nation ethnic groups and the main social spheres still prevails in the public consciousness of Kazakhstan’s society. The cultural of these states, as in the Soviet period. The integration based on the Kazakh language nation is primarily understood as a titular and culture has the secondary importance nation with its language [Scientific Journal. possessing a more limited social base in the 2019/2 (88) 83. Modern socio-political person of the Kazakh ethnic group and a and economic processes] and culture part of the Turkic-speaking ethnic groups which should be known and used in the of Kazakhstan. The use of the Kazakh interethnic communication by non-titular language in various areas of society also ethnic groups. The idea of a​​ civil nation demonstrates less coverage and penetration as the multi-ethnic society on the basis of in comparison with the Russian language. citizenship common to all ethnic groups The cultural integration of ethnic groups does not find the wide understanding of the

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 49 post-Soviet society. Even the corresponding Through the Russian language we learned terminology has not been developed in the world culture, world progress, world the public mind for this idea. Such a technologies. Therefore, it will always community is called “people”, particularly, stay with us. Russia is our great neighbor, in Kazakhstan it is called “Kazakh people”. a neighbor given by the God, and we will However, the importance of “people” in always be there, we will always cooperate, this sense is fully recognized by the society we will be partners”[3]. and, first of all, by the authorities, because In other post-Soviet countries, the support of “people” means the support particularly, in the states of Central Asia of interethnic stability and security of the and Transcaucasia, the Russian language, post-Soviet society. having lost the political support of For Kazakhstan, due to various historical, authorities under the new conditions, is political and social reasons, the support gradually leaving the social and cultural of interethnic stability and security of the arena. Such a state policy to promote the society has the fundamental importance. language of the titular nation does not work The policy of the authorities to support the fully in Kazakhstan. Here, the main role in interethnic stability and social security was the cultural integration of ethnic groups is called “the Kazakhstan model of interethnic still played by the Russian language, while harmony and peace”. In 2004, pointing to the integrating role of the Kazakh language the large role of the Russian language in the looks more limited, not going beyond the formation of the civil nation in Kazakhstan, Kazakh ethnic group and a small part of the first President of the country, Nursultan Turkic ethnic groups. Nazarbayev, emphasized that it was the Hence it is possible to conclude that, Russian language that united our people unlike most other post-Soviet countries, the [2]. state support of the titular nation’s language Nevertheless, despite the noticeable is not [84 Scientific Journal. 2019/2 (88) progress in the spread of the Kazakh Modern socio-political and economic language in the multi-ethnic society, the processes] a decisive factor in the adoption Russian language occupies a dominant of this language as the basis for the cultural position in the cultural integration of ethnic integration of ethnic groups. Therefore, it groups in Kazakhstan. The authorities is necessary to analyze other factors that primarily support the state language in could convincingly reveal the continuing Kazakhstan, not forgetting about the integration potential of the Russian support of the Russian language and other language and the limited possibilities of the languages ​​in the country. This is one of Kazakh language in the cultural integration the main points of language policy in of ethnic groups. Among these factors, the Kazakhstan. In 2017, Yelbasy pointed out attention should be paid to social factors that the great role of the Russian language in influence the relationship and interaction of the development of the Kazakh people. We ethnic groups in the society, including the “will not forget the Russian language and interethnic relations concerning the issue culture. This is impossible for the Kazakhs. of language use in the aspect of domination The expansion of our views to the world is and submission. implemented through the Russian language.

50 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 Demographic factor and dominance a further decrease in the share of Kazakhs of the Russian language in the Soviet in the total population of Kazakhstan. As a period result, although the total number of Kazakhs Among the factors of the cultural increased by half a million people over the integration of ethnic groups, the experts twenty years, from 1939 to 1959, their often turn to the demography seeing share in the total population of Kazakhstan an explanation of the current situation decreased from 37.8% to 30.0% during this in the cultural and linguistic sphere of period as a result of these demographic Kazakhstan. In the Soviet period, the changes [ 4], [5]. relationship between the number of the Since the 1960s, the trends in ethnic main ethnic groups of Kazakhstan and proportions of the population of Kazakhstan the dominance of the Russian language change to reversed, showing an increase looked more obvious. It is well known that in the share of Kazakhs and a decrease in the demographic changes in Kazakhstan the share of Russians. For three decades, during the Soviet period are associated according to [Scientific Journal. 2019/2 (88) with the industrialization, development of 85. Modern socio-political and economic virgin lands, deployment of military units processes] the enumeration for 1989, these and training grounds and other processes trends led to a slight absolute and relative which contributed to a sharp increase in overbalance of Kazakhs over Russians: the number of Russians and other Slavic 6534,6 thousand Kazakhs (39.7% of the nations mobilized by the communist regime population) and 6227, 5 thousand Russians to carry out these programs. This led to a (37.8% of the population) [5]. sharp increase in the number of Russians in However, the demographic structure Kazakhstan from 1275,7 thousand people of the Kazakh and Russian population in (20.6% of the population) in 1926 to 5521,9 Soviet times was significantly different, thousand people (42.4% of the population) since the rural population dominated among in 1970, i.e. this is more than 4 times in the Kazakhs and the urban population more than forty years [4], [5]. prevailed among the Russians. Kazakhs, The victims of Kazakhs caused by as in pre-revolutionary times, were mainly the revolutionary upheavals and civil engaged in the animal husbandry, namely in war, collectivization campaign, violent sheep, camel and horse breeding. Russians sedentarization from 1917 to 1930, in the cities were predominantly engaged repressions of the Stalin regime, and large in the industrial production. Kazakhs were losses of Kazakhs during the Second World little employed in the industrial sector, so War, led to a significant reduction in their in the cities they made up a minority of the number from 3627,6 thousand people in population. Thus, in the regional center of 1926 (58.5% of the population) up to 2327,7 eastern Kazakhstan, Ust-Kamenogorsk, thousand people in 1939 (37.8% of the according to enumeration for 1970, population). It should be added that during Kazakhs made up only 5.6%, and Russians the Second World War, the Stalin regime 86.5% of the city’s population [6, p. 71- deported to Kazakhstan more than 1 million 72]. A similar picture with slight variations people of various nationalities accused of was observed in Soviet times and in other cooperating with the occupiers. This led to large cities of Kazakhstan. Regionally, in

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 51 northern, eastern and central Kazakhstan, in this region. In Kazakhstan, the level of the predominance of Russians over Kazakhs industrialization was higher; therefore, the was also observed in the rural population. At share of urban residents always exceeded the same time, in the southern and western the share of rural people [86 Scientific regions of the republic, the dominance of Journal 2019/2 (88) Modern socio-political Kazakhs over Russians was noticeable. and economic processes] and the cities The demographic dominance of Russians themselves were larger than in Central Asia. led to the significant Russification of The level of urbanization among Kazakhs Kazakhs and other non-Russian nations in was higher than among other Central Asian the Soviet period. The Russification began in nations. In addition, the growth rates of Kazakhstan in the 1930s with the beginning urban residents among Kazakhs in the 1970s of industrialization in the republic. During and 80s were higher than in other republics these years, the communist regime’s escape of the region. During this period, the level from a Soviet localization policy aimed at of Russification of the Kazakhs became supporting the languages and​​ cultures of the higher with the growth of urbanization, indigenous peoples of the Soviet republics since the Kazakhs became more immersed also contributed to the Russification. Later in the Russian world with the move to the in the 1940s and subsequent years, the cities. On the contrary, in the Central Asian Russification of Kazakhs and other nations republics, during this period, the Russian of Kazakhstan intensified, eventually population began to decline as a result of becoming the norm of urban life. With the its departure from these republics, the share growth of urbanization of the Kazakhs in of Russians in the total population here the 1970-1980s, the level of their language decreased from year to year. Russification also increased. During the Soviet period, in Kazakhstan, Brian Silver studied the Russification a direct correlation was observed between of Soviet nations in the 1960s and 70s. the demographic proportions of ethnic He noted the increasing level of their groups and the distribution of languages. We Russification so that there was complete are talking, of course, about the cities and assimilation up to a change of nationality the north-eastern regions of the republic. in the passport among some nations. The numerical dominance of Russians In Silver’s classification, the nations of in cities corresponded to the dominance Central Asia, or, as they said then, Central of the Russian language here among all Asia and Kazakhstan, were not among the nationalities. This meant the dominance Russified Soviet nations [7, p. 79]. In our of the cultural integration of ethnic groups opinion, such Silver’s assessment was due based on the Russian language and Russian- to the fact that the nations of these regions Soviet culture in cities which determined lived mainly in rural areas, where the the socio-cultural identity of Kazakhstan as Russian language covered a much smaller a modern industrial society. population in comparison with cities. However, the Silver’s assessment of Features of the connection of post- Central Asian nations of the Soviet period Soviet demography and cultural as non-Russified was less related to the integration of ethnic groups in Kazakhs than to other indigenous people Kazakhstan

52 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 In the post-Soviet period, Kazakhstan it is connected with their high average age has a fundamentally different demographic and the fact that the vast majority live in situation compared to the Soviet period. cities. As a result of these and other factors, This situation is associated with fairly rapid the number of Russians in Kazakhstan and noticeable changes in the demographic decreased by 2009 to 3793,8 thousand proportions of Kazakhs and Russians, so it people, which amounted to 23.7% of the is quite reasonable to talk about post-Soviet country’s population [9, p. 4-6]. ethno-demographic dynamics. Three main Finally, the third feature of the post- features may be distinguished: Soviet demography is also related to the 1) Growth of the absolute and relative internal migration of Kazakhs from the number of Kazakhs in the population of rural areas to the cities of Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan; 2004, the share of Kazakhs in the urban 2) Reduction of the absolute and relative population of Kazakhstan amounted to number of Russians in the population of 48.5%, and Russians - 37%. If we compare Kazakhstan; these figures with the data of the last 3) Internal migration of Kazakhs from Soviet enumeration for 1989, we will see rural areas to cities. an increase in the share of Kazakhs in the All three features, to one degree or urban population of Kazakhstan by 2004 another, are related to migrations, this gives at 20% from the level of 28.7% in 1989. the dynamic tone to demographic changes The share of Russians for the same period in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. Although the decreased in the cities of Kazakhstan by high birth rate plays the main role in the 14.3% [10, p. 5-7]. absolute and relative increase in the number Particularly impressive is the increase of of Kazakhs, nevertheless, the policy of the number of Kazakhs in those cities where encouraging the return of ethnic Kazakhs it was very low in the Soviet period. These to their historical homeland contributed cities included the regional center of East to an additional increase in the number of Kazakhstan, Ust-Kamenogorsk. Due to the Kazakhs in the country by approximately low initial base, the number of Kazakhs one million people. increased here almost four times over the The second feature of ethno-demographic 25 years from 1989 to 2014, from 34097 changes in post-Soviet Kazakhstan is people up to 124910 people. This means also associated with the migration, more that the share of Kazakhs in the population precisely, with the emigration of Russians of the city increased from 10.6% in 1989 to from the country. It acquired a special 38.3% in 2014 [6, p. 72]. scope in the 1990s, as a result of which Ust-Kamenogorsk in Soviet times was [Scientific Journal. 2019/2 (88) 87 Modern considered one of the most “Russian” cities socio-political and economic processes] in Kazakhstan. Throughout the twentieth the number of the Russians decreased from century, Russians always exceeded 80% of 6227,5 thousand people in 1989 (37.8% the population there. Even on the decline of the population) up to 4479,6 million of the Soviet system, Russians made up people (29.9% of the population) in 1999 81.5% of the city’s population in Ust- [8, p. 6-8]. The low birth rate among Kamenogorsk, while there were 10.6% Russians also plays a role in this process, Kazakhs, that is almost 8-fold increase in

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 53 the number of Russians over the number there. The reality of modern Kazakhstan, of Kazakhs. However, by 2014, the picture however, does not match these predictions. had noticeably changed as a result of the Without any doubts, it is possible to state emigration of Kazakhs from rural areas that Almaty, like other large cities of of eastern Kazakhstan to cities. This led Kazakhstan, remains generally Russian- to an increase in the share of Kazakhs in speaking. Despite the fact that the majority the regional center to 38% in 2014, and or a larger, approaching to a half, part of the share of Russians by that time had the population in the cities of Kazakhstan decreased to 58%. Although the number today are Kazakhs, the Russian language of Russians is still higher than the number still dominates the urban social space. As in of Kazakhs, now the excess is only one Soviet times, when Kazakhs were a minority and half. At the same time, the trend of in cities, the Russian language is also demographic change may in prospect widely used in interethnic communication, lead to an equal number of Kazakhs and enterprises and organizations, public Russians in Ust-Kamenogorsk. In a more transport, administrative communication, distant prospect, in the regional center of graphic and information space of cities. eastern Kazakhstan, Kazakhs may prevail William Fierman notes, in most cities over Russians, as is the case in many other of post-Soviet Kazakhstan, the Russian cities of the country. language continues to overshadow the The post-Soviet ethno-demographic Kazakh language despite a significant dynamics led to a meeting of “two worlds”, increase in the Kazakh population [11, p. Kazakh and Russian, in Ust-Kamenogorsk, 92]. as it was called by Kazakh demographer We believe that the most important and historian Alexander Alekseyenko [6]. condition in the matter of language The same “meeting” is taking place today transformation in Kazakhstan is that the not only in Ust-Kamenogorsk, but also in Kazakhs themselves speak the Kazakh most other cities of the country, large and language. This, however, is not currently small. In the southern and [88 Scientific observed in the Kazakh ethnic community Journal. 2019/2 (88) Modern socio-political taken as a whole that is in its urban and rural and economic processes] and the western parts. Almost all Kazakhs of the second parts of Kazakhstan, in cities, the Kazakh and third generation know the Kazakh population dominates the Russian, that is, language in an amount sufficient to explain the Kazakhs have become the demographic and communicate in the social space. Many majority, and the Russians, respectively, of them graduated from Kazakh schools, the demographic minority. however, prefer to communicate in Russian. Based on this, many experts predicted Today, Kazakhs may be considered as the that the cities in this part of Kazakhstan, largest Russian-speaking non-Slavic nation particularly, the largest city in the country in the world. This suggests that the cultural - Almaty, would become Kazakh-speaking. and linguistic Russification of the Kazakhs The basis of their predictions was the is reproduced in the post-Soviet conditions. correlation between the ethno-demographic This, in our opinion, is the decisive reason factor of the size of the ethnic majority in the for the dominance of the cultural integration community and the language that dominated of ethnic groups in Russian. In other post-

54 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 Soviet states, where the titular nations were nation, as well as de-Russification of the much less Russified in Soviet times, their language sphere. This is the policy of language today dominates in society and, post-Soviet national building which is accordingly, the cultural integration of based on the language of the titular nation. ethnic groups based on the language and Kazakhstan adheres to the same policy in culture of the titular nation dominates and national building. Belarus stands apart in this is the norm. this regard: there are two state languages -​​ The proclamation of the Kazakh language the titular and the Russian, and the policy of as the state language of Kazakhstan is supporting the titular language is very weak nothing more than a desire to comply with and there is absolutely no de-Russification this norm. of the language sphere. To be fair, however, it should be noted that Aneta Pavlenko, a researcher of the the titular nations of the post-Soviet states language situation in the post-Soviet space, of Central Asia and the Caucasus which are identifies four factors that complicate considered as a model of national building the turn from Russification and therefore for Kazakhstan, have not experienced such a complicate the language policy in many widespread impact of the Russian language post-Soviet states. These factors are: 1) and culture over the long time that Kazakhs a large proportion of the population of passed through. The Kazakhs underwent these states that speak only Russian; 2) the particularly strong Russification during the Russification of the titular population; 3) the Soviet period of their history. Not least of multi-ethnic population using Russian as all, this was connected to the demographic a language of interethnic communication; disasters that Kazakhs experienced in the 4) the functional limitations of some title Soviet period. languages ​​[12, p. 10]. W. Fierman, comparing the experience In our opinion, the linguistic situation of linguistic transformation in Kazakhstan in Kazakhstan corresponds to these four and Azerbaijan, points to the difference in factors. Firstly, Kazakhstan has a very large the existing situations in both countries. In proportion of the population for whom his opinion, the reason for this is the inertia Russian is the only language, and they do of socio-cultural factors that has persisted not know another language. In addition to in Kazakhstan since the Soviet period [11, the Russians themselves, such population p. 98]. Among these factors, the leading may include Ukrainians, Belarusians, place is taken by the Russification of the Germans, Koreans, and a number of indigenous population, Kazakhs, and other other nationalities. Together, they make nationalities of the country. up a significant part of the population of It should be noted that among the post- Kazakhstan. Secondly, the Kazakhs, as Soviet states, Kazakhstan is not the only we indicated, are distinguished by a high country with a high level of Russification level of Russification. This allows them to of its population. These states include be ranked among the largest Russification Belarus, Ukraine and, to a certain extent, [90 Scientific Journal. 2019/2 (88) Modern Kyrgyzstan. In Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, the socio-political and economic processes] government pursues a policy of supporting nation of non-Slavic origin. Thirdly, for and promoting the language of the titular these two reasons, the Russian language

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 55 is, in its real position, the language of fourthly, the Kazakh language is used very interethnic communication in a multi-ethnic little and is therefore functionally limited in Kazakhstani society. Finally, fourthly, the the fields of technology, business and many Kazakh language is used very little and others, although its linguistic potential is therefore functionally limited in the fields quite ready for use in these and other areas. of technology, business and many other In our opinion, the explanatory potential spheres, although its linguistic potential is of the demographic factor should not quite ready for the use in these and other be overestimated in the analysis of the areas. situation in the cultural and linguistic Aneta Pavlenko, a researcher of the sphere of Kazakhstan, in its dynamics language situation in the post-Soviet space, from the Soviet period to the present. In identifies four factors that complicate the post-Soviet period, the relationship the turn from Russification and therefore between the number of main ethnic groups complicate the language policy in many and the distribution of Russian and Kazakh post-Soviet states. These factors are: 1) languages is​​ not so obvious. Therefore, the a large proportion of the population of demographic factor does not have universal these states that speak only Russian; 2) significance in explaining the cultural and Russification of the titular population; 3) linguistic situation in Kazakhstan. At the a multiethnic population using Russian as same time, it should not be neglected, a language of interethnic communication; since to a certain extent together with other 4) the functional limitations of some title factors it is able to explain the changes that languages ​​[12, p. 10]. take place and, on their basis, to understand In our opinion, the linguistic situation the trends of cultural integration of ethnic in Kazakhstan corresponds to these four groups in the country, in the low and long factors. Firstly, Kazakhstan has a very large term perspective. proportion of the population for whom Russian is the only language, and it does Conclusion not know another language. In addition Based on the results of the analysis to the Russians themselves, such may carried out in the article, it is possible to include Ukrainians, Belarusians, Germans, make the following main conclusions: Koreans, and a number of other nationalities. 1. The policy of supporting and Together, they make up a significant part of promoting the state language in various the population of Kazakhstan. Secondly, the social spheres does not provide, as practice Kazakhs, as we indicated, are distinguished shows, the cultural integration of ethnic by a high level of Russification. This groups based on the Kazakh language allows them to be ranked among the largest and culture. In modern Kazakhstan, the Russification-90 Scientific Journal. 2019/2 cultural integration of ethnic groups based (88) Modern socio-political and economic on the Russian language which has been processes of a nation of non-Slavic origin. established since Soviet times is preserved. Thirdly, for these two reasons, the Russian 2. Although the ethno-demographic language is, in its real situation, the dynamics, established over the years of language of interethnic communication in independence, corresponds to the logic a multi-ethnic Kazakhstani society. Finally, of national processes in the post-Soviet

56 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 space, however, it does not directly affect 3. One of the main reasons for the lack the cultural integration of ethnic groups of direct correlation between the post- based on the Kazakh language and culture. Soviet ethno-demographic dynamics and Unlike the number of other post-Soviet the cultural integration of ethnic groups states, in modern Kazakhstan there is no based on the Kazakh language is the inertia direct correlation between the demographic of socio-cultural factors that has persisted dominance of the titular nation and the since the Soviet period, among which the cultural integration of ethnic groups based main role is played by the Russification of on the titular language and culture. ethnic groups, including Kazakhs.

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 57 THE PRESENTATION OF THE BOOK «АМЕРИКАНЫ ТАНУ: ҚАЗАҚСТАННАН КӨЗҚАРАС» WAS HELD IN KAZISS

In September 15, 2020 at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, a presentation of the book «Американы тану: Қазақстаннан көзқарас». was held. The author of the book, Erkin Tukumov, is an international relations specialist, diplo- mat, and a Bolashak scholar and a master’s degree in public administration in the United States. In 1997-2005, he worked at the KazISS under the President of the Republic of Ka- zakhstan, headed the department of foreign policy research. The monograph by E. Tukumov «Американы тану: Қазақстаннан көзқарас», which analyzes the factors that contributed to the development of a superpower and examines the problems faced by modern American society, was published by KazISS in 2017. It devotes considerable attention to US foreign policy, mechanisms for making foreign policy deci- sions, as well as bilateral relations between Washington and Nur-Sultan. The presentation was held offline and in online formats, it was attended by represen- tatives of state bodies - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, diplomatic missions of the Republic of Kazakhstan abroad, scientific experts of scientific and analytical structures of Kazakhstan and Russia, heads and professors of departments involved in training specialists international affairs of leading Kazakhstani universities. In her opening remarks, the Director of the KazISS un- der the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Zarema Shaukenova thanked all the participants of the event and especially emphasized: “Translation of current publications into the state language is an important direction of the sci- entific and methodological activities of the KazISS. This initiative is associated with a striking example of a large

58 QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 project of the Rukhani Zhagyru Program - “100 new textbooks in the Kazakh language”. The first President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Elbasy N. Nazarbayev said in his pro- grammatic article: “It is necessary to take everything that is most modern and have transla- tions into the state Kazakh language. And this is the task of the state. “ “Great interest on the part of the readers to the monograph“ Discovering America: A View from Kazakhstan ”, their reviews and responses determined the priority in its choice for translation and publication in the state language so that this work becomes available, first of all, to a new generation of young Kazakhstanis studying international relations, po- litical science in the leading universities of our country ”- added Z. Shaukenova. The speech of the author of the book Erkin Tukumov sounded in the format of a video message. Reviewer Marat Atnashev, CTF Asset Management Director of the Alfa Group Consortium, ex-rector of the Moscow School of Man- agement SKOLKOVO voiced his opinion on the relevance and importance of the monograph and publication in the Ka- zakh language in his video speech. The new edition of the monograph in the state language was supported by the reviewer of the book «Американы тану: Қазақстаннан көзқарас» Assistant to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, well-known Kazakhstani political scientist Yerlan Karin. Prominent public and political figures, diplomats - Deputy Chairman of the Senate Coun- cil under the Senate of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan Byrganym Aitimova and head of the Center for International Programs of the Nursultan Nazarbayev Foundation- Kairat Abuseitov, with their knowledge and personal experience in the United States, cre- ated a unique atmosphere of professional exchange of views. It was noted that, this days, the work on the United States, which would fully reveal many elements of the political life of that country, is not often found within the Kazakh scientific community. In this connection, the book «Discovering America: a look from Kazakhstan» is rel- evant today because it gives an opportunity to look in detail at the existing challenges and problems of American society. They expressed their support for the efforts of the KazISS under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan to publish scientific, popular scientific works in the Kazakh language, and specifically the work of Erkin Tukumov. Sultan Akimbekov, director of the Institute of Asian Studies, noted that the book would be useful to Kazakh and foreign readers in that it was written in simple and accessible language, including important milestones in the establishment of American statehood. The expert also agreed on the insufficiency of scientific publications about the United States in Kazakhstan’s scientific environment, especially from the point of view of Kazakh realities. Murat Laumulin, Chief Scientist of KISI under the President of RK, praised the work of Yerkin Tukumov and expressed the hope that this work would not be the last in his ser- vice. The book «Американы тану: Қазақстаннан көзқарас» was also evaluated by the Professor of International Relations and World Economy KazNU Al-Farabi Kuralai

QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 3 (79)/2020 59 Baizakova. Focusing on the contents of the book, she highlighted a chapter on Washington’s foreign policy, which provided a detailed analysis of US interests in the global world, as well as the policies being pursued with regard to the Republic of Kazakhstan. Nurlan Seydin, acting Director of «Ғылым ордасы» noted that KazISS had started publishing books in the state language since 2006 and this work continues to this day. Dana Akhmedyanova, the Head of the Department of International Relations of the ENU L.N.Gumileva and invited professor Andrei Shenin (Russia) spoke about the de- mand and usefulness of the book «Открывая Америку: взгляд из Казахстана» in the teaching process in the universities. An interesting discussion took place, with a discussion on a number of issues, in which Timur Shaimergenov, Chairman of the International Information Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Talgat Zhumagulov, Counselor-Envoy of the Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Norway, Director of the Institute of Asian Studies Sultan Akimbekov, Director of the Institute of Diplomacy of the ASU under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Marian Abisheva , Executive Director of the Public Fund “Ulttyk Audarma Burosy” Rauan Kenzhekhanuly, Advisor to the Director of the KazISS under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Dastan Eleukenov, Chief Researcher of the KazISS under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Murat Laumulin, acting General Director of “Gylym Ordasy” Nurlan Seydin,Head of the Department of Political Science of Al-Farabi KazNU Gulnara Nasimova, Professor of the Department of International Relations and World Economy of KazNU named after al-Farabi Kuralay Bayzakova, Head of the Department of International Relations, ENU named after LN Gumilyev Dana Akhmedyanova, Department of Regional Studies Aigerim Ospanova, invited professors of the Faculty of International Relations of ENU named after L.N. Gumilyev Kamen Velichkov (Bulgaria), Andrey Shenin (Russia). The presentation ended with the traditional cutting of the ribbon, which was cut by Byrganym Aitimova and Kairat Abuseitov.

The participants are sure that the book «Американы тану: Қазақстаннан көзқарас». will find its attentive reader, it will be sent to the libraries of Kazakhstan, and now it will be available on the website of the KazISS under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan: http://www.kisi.kz/images/izdanie/Tukumov/tukumov.pdf

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