DOCSLIB.ORG

(Australia) to Earthquake-Generated Tsunamis, Storms and Sea Level Rise

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
(Australia) to Earthquake-Generated Tsunamis, Storms and Sea Level Rise OPEN The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to SUBJECT AREAS: earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms PLANETARY SCIENCE CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS and sea level rise: a probabilistic Received multi-hazard approach 27 August 2014 F. Dall’Osso1, D. Dominey-Howes1, C. Moore2, S. Summerhayes3 & G. Withycombe3 Accepted 18 November 2014 1Asia – Pacific Natural Hazards Research Group, School of Geosciences, the University of Sydney, 2NOAA Pacific Marine Published Environmental Laboratory, 3Sydney Coastal Councils Group Inc. 10 December 2014 Approximately 85% of Australia’s population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Correspondence and (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of requests for materials appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for should be addressed to the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we F.D.O. simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 15100, 151,000 and 1510,000, (filippodallosso@ occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the gmail.com) or D.D.-H. exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated (dale.dominey- tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The [email protected]. probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard au) assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 15100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney. ustralia is at risk from tsunamis but due to its geographic proximity to different seismic source regions, the tsunami hazard around Australia varies significantly1 (Figure 1a). Since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster great effort has been made to understand the palaeo- and historic records of tsunamis affecting A 1–3 Australia, estimate future tsunami probabilities and to assess risk . For the New South Wales (NSW) coast, the most likely sources of earthquake-generated tsunamis are the New Hebrides, Puysegur, Kermadec, Tonga and Chile Trenches1. Burbidge et al.1,4 are the only team to publish a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Australia. Burbidge et al.1 estimated tsunami offshore wave amplitudes (i.e. at the -100m bathymetric contour) corresponding to various annual probabilities of occurrence (i.e. probability of a given wave amplitude to be reached or exceeded), triggered by all possible seismic sources around Australia. The methodology is based on the approach usually adopted for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSAH). Burbidge et al.1 simulated a number of earthquakes whose probability of occurrence was known for each of the selected tsunami sources (i.e. all subduction zones surrounding Australia). Other tsunami sources such as landslides and volcanic eruptions were not considered. The vertical component of the crustal deformation of each earthquake was used as the initial condition of a finite-difference numerical model to propagate each tsunami towards the coast reaching a bathy- metric contour of -100m. This produced a maximum tsunami wave amplitude (at the -100m contour) for each earthquake, associated to its probability of occurrence. The probabilistic hazard maps of Burbidge et al.1 are given at an offshore bathymetric contour of -100m. Near- shore tsunami propagation and inundation modelling were not undertaken. To the best of our knowledge, no PTHAs that incorporate onshore inundation modelling have been published in Australia. In a pilot study, Dall’Osso et al.2 explored the exposure and vulnerability of buildings to inundation that would be associated with a tsunami run-up of 7 m in the Sydney suburb of Manly. They showed that such a scenario SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 4 : 7401 | DOI: 10.1038/srep07401 1 www.nature.com/scientificreports Figure 1 | Study area and off-shore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Australia. (a) the red circle indicates the study area location: this is part of the metropolitan area of Sydney, in which most of the NSW population is clustered. The colour bars surrounding Australia represent the off-shore tsunami wave amplitude having a 1 in 1,000 chance of being exceeded per year.; (b) the case study area located south of central Sydney, NSW and includes Botany Bay, Bate Bay and Port Hacking. These areas are located within the Councils of Botany Bay, Rockdale and Sutherland Shire. Points #1, #2 and #3 located by red stars were selected to extract the tsunami wave amplitude fields shown in Figures 2 and 3. The point coordinates are: point#1 (-33.9577; 151.1930), point#2 (-33.9877; 151.1490), point #3 (-34.0503; 151.1582) (Datum: CGS WGS84). Each point has a vertical elevation of -2m AHD. Figure 1(a) was modified from Burbidge et al.1, with permission from Geoscience Australia. E Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2014. Figure 1(b) was created by the first author (FD) using ESRI ArcGIS 10. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 4 : 7401 | DOI: 10.1038/srep07401 2 www.nature.com/scientificreports would inundate 12001 buildings. However, Dall’Osso et al.2 esti- the estuary zone of Port Hacking (Figure 1b). The PTHA mated the tsunami inundation using a deterministic, static ‘‘bathtub includes hydrodynamic modelling of tsunami generation, trans- filling’’ method that limited the scope of their work. oceanic and near-shore propagation, and inland inundation. Historically, tide-gauge records show that only small tsunamis Using the model MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunamis)12,we have affected NSW5. However, according to the ‘‘Australian simulate 36 tsunami scenarios by combining three annual prob- Megatsunami Hypothesis’’ (AMH) large palaeotsunamis may have abilities of occurrence (i.e. 1/100, 1/1,000 and 1/10,000), two occurred repeatedly throughout the Holocene although their sources tsunami source locations (i.e. New Hebrides and Puysegur remain unknown6. Although the AMH is controversial, the fact trenches) and six initial sea level states (accounting for tide fluc- remains that the exposed NSW coast (Figure 1a) is home to approxi- tuations and sea level rise estimates). For each scenario we obtain mately 80% of the State’s population. In addition to the AMH, geo- the tsunami arrival time, the wave amplitude field, the extent of logical evidence of smaller tsunamis that occurred in the mid to late the forecast area of maximum inundation, and estimates of the Holocene has been found in various estuary locations along the maximum water level and flow velocity in each point of the study southeast coast of Australia7. Although these events would have been area. smaller than those proposed by the AMH, if repeated today, their b. Assess the exposure of buildings and infrastructure to the consequences would be significant8. selected tsunami scenarios. Exposure variations across different In fact, Chen and McAneny9 estimated that in Sydney, some tsunami scenarios are then discussed and compared based on the 20,000 properties are at risk from inundation associated with a vari- tsunami probability, source location and initial sea level condi- ety of coastal processes being located ,1 km from the shoreline and tions; at no more than 3m above sea level. However, this estimate did not c. Demonstrate how the PTHA can be used in multi-hazard stud- include tsunamis. ies. This is achieved by comparing the outputs of the PTHA and The deficiency of PTHAs coupled with dynamic numerical inland the exposure assessment with a probabilistic storm surge hazard inundation modelling and building exposure assessments make it and exposure assessment undertaken by McInnes et al.11, which difficult for state and local government authorities and the emer- used the same initial sea level conditions. gency services to implement comprehensive multi-hazard risk reduction strategies, including to the threat posed by tsunamis. The paucity of PTHAs in Australia means that the risk from tsuna- Results mis cannot be fully quantified nor compared against natural hazards For each tsunami scenario, MOST calculated the time series of whose probabilities are known. Further, in the absence of this inundation depth and flow velocity reached in each cell of the information, the NSW Government10 defines tsunami risk in broad topo-bathymetric grids used as inputs. This information was used terms as ‘the entire population living within 1 km of the shoreline, to generate the following results: and below 10m above sea level’. This approach can under or over- estimate exposure, particularly in areas featuring estuaries and ria- Tsunami wave amplitude fields. Examples of the tsunami wave like coasts, such as Sydney11. amplitude field at three selected locations (Points #1, #2 and #3 on Our study produces a more accurate PTHA to assist and underpin Figure 1b) are shown in Figure 2 and 3. As expected, the observed coastal risk management and land-use planning strategies. In par- tsunami arrival time depends primarily on the distance between the ticular, this work aims to: source and the impact area (Figures 2 and 3). It is not influenced by the earthquake magnitude or by the initial sea level condition. In each a. Undertake a PTHA for a densely populated area in south Sydney, scenario, multiple tsunami waves would reach the study area. In most NSW. The study area comprises the bays of Botany and Bate, and scenarios the first wave has the largest amplitude, although there are Figure 2 | Wave amplitude fields of tsunamis triggered in New Hebrides (north of the study area), including the 1/100 (in green), the 1/1,000 (in blue) and the 1/10,000 (in red) events.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Kingdom of Tonga Devastated by a Megatsunami in the Mid-15Th Century
    EGU21-5317, updated on 25 Sep 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5317 EGU General Assembly 2021 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The kingdom of Tonga devastated by a megatsunami in the mid-15th century Franck Lavigne1,2,3, Julie Morin4, Wassmer Patrick2, Weller Olivier5, Kula Taaniela6, Ana V. Maea6, Karim Kelfoun7, Fatima Mokadem2, Raphael Paris7, Mukhamad N. Malawani1,2,8, Faral Audrey1,2, Mhammed Benbakkar7, Ségolène Saulnier-Copard2, Céline M. Vidal4, Tu’I’ahai Tu’I’afitu6, Gomez Christopher9, and Fuka Kitekei’aho10 1Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne University, ([email protected]) 2Laboratory of Physical Geography, UMR 8591 CNRS, Meudon, France 3Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France 4Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK 5Trajectoires, UMR 8215 CNRS, Paris, France 6Ministry of Land and Natural Resources, Natural Resources Division, Nuku'alofa, Kingdom of Tonga 7Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, France 8Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia 9Laboratory of Sediment Hazards and Disaster Risk, Kobe University, Japan 10Geocare & Petroleum Consult Ltd, Nuku'alofa, Kingdom of Tonga The pre-colonial history of Tonga and West Polynesia still suffers from major gaps because its reconstruction is essentially based on legends left by oral tradition, and by archaeological evidence somehow difficult to interpret. By the fourteenth century, the powerful Tu'i Tonga kingdom united the islands of the Tongan archipelago under a centralised authority and, according to tradition, extended its influence to neighbouring island groups in the Central Pacific. However, some periods of deep crisis were identified, e.g.
    [Show full text]
  • Literature Review of Tsunami Sources Affecting Tsunami Hazard Along the US East Coast
    Literature review of tsunami sources affecting tsunami hazard along the US East Coast Department of Ocean Engineering, University of Rhode Island Narragansett, USA Feb. 21, 2011 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................... 3 2. LITERATURE REVIEW OF RELEVANT TSUNAMI SOURCES .................................... 5 2.1 Submarine Mass Failures ........................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Co-seismic tsunamis .................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Review of literature on Caribbean subduction zone ............................................................. 8 2.2.2 NOAA Forecast Source Database for Caribbean subduction zone ............................... 16 2.2.3 Azores-Gibraltar convergence zone .......................................................................................... 17 2.3 Cumbre Vieja Volcano flanK collapse ............................................................................... 21 3. INITIAL SOURCE DEFINITIONS AND TSUNAMI SIMULATIONS .......................... 24 3.1 Modeling methodology .......................................................................................................... 24 3.1.1 Initial conditions for model .......................................................................................................... 24 3.1.2 Co-seismic sources
    [Show full text]
  • Bildnachweis
    Bildnachweis Im Bildnachweis verwendete Abkürzungen: With permission from the Geological Society of Ame- rica l – links; m – Mitte; o – oben; r – rechts; u – unten 4.65; 6.52; 6.183; 8.7 Bilder ohne Nachweisangaben stammen vom Autor. Die Autoren der Bildquellen werden in den Bildunterschriften With permission from the Society for Sedimentary genannt; die bibliographischen Angaben sind in der Literaturlis- Geology (SEPM) te aufgeführt. Viele Autoren/Autorinnen und Verlage/Institutio- 6.2ul; 6.14; 6.16 nen haben ihre Einwilligung zur Reproduktion von Abbildungen gegeben. Dafür sei hier herzlich gedankt. Für die nachfolgend With permission from the American Association for aufgeführten Abbildungen haben ihre Zustimmung gegeben: the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Box Eisbohrkerne Dr; 2.8l; 2.8r; 2.13u; 2.29; 2.38l; Box Die With permission from Elsevier Hockey-Stick-Diskussion B; 4.65l; 4.53; 4.88mr; Box Tuning 2.64; 3.5; 4.6; 4.9; 4.16l; 4.22ol; 4.23; 4.40o; 4.40u; 4.50; E; 5.21l; 5.49; 5.57; 5.58u; 5.61; 5.64l; 5.64r; 5.68; 5.86; 4.70ul; 4.70ur; 4.86; 4.88ul; Box Tuning A; 4.95; 4.96; 4.97; 5.99; 5.100l; 5.100r; 5.118; 5.119; 5.123; 5.125; 5.141; 5.158r; 4.98; 5.12; 5.14r; 5.23ol; 5.24l; 5.24r; 5.25; 5.54r; 5.55; 5.56; 5.167l; 5.167r; 5.177m; 5.177u; 5.180; 6.43r; 6.86; 6.99l; 6.99r; 5.65; 5.67; 5.70; 5.71o; 5.71ul; 5.71um; 5.72; 5.73; 5.77l; 5.79o; 6.144; 6.145; 6.148; 6.149; 6.160; 6.162; 7.18; 7.19u; 7.38; 5.80; 5.82; 5.88; 5.94; 5.94ul; 5.95; 5.108l; 5.111l; 5.116; 5.117; 7.40ur; 8.19; 9.9; 9.16; 9.17; 10.8 5.126; 5.128u; 5.147o; 5.147u;
    [Show full text]
  • Storm, Rogue Wave, Or Tsunami Origin for Megaclast Deposits in Western
    Storm, rogue wave, or tsunami origin for megaclast PNAS PLUS deposits in western Ireland and North Island, New Zealand? John F. Deweya,1 and Paul D. Ryanb,1 aUniversity College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 4BH, United Kingdom; and bSchool of Natural Science, Earth and Ocean Sciences, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway H91 TK33, Ireland Contributed by John F. Dewey, October 15, 2017 (sent for review July 26, 2017; reviewed by Sarah Boulton and James Goff) The origins of boulderite deposits are investigated with reference wavelength (100–200 m), traveling from 10 kph to 90 kph, with to the present-day foreshore of Annagh Head, NW Ireland, and the multiple back and forth actions in a short space and brief timeframe. Lower Miocene Matheson Formation, New Zealand, to resolve Momentum of laterally displaced water masses may be a contributing disputes on their origin and to contrast and compare the deposits factor in increasing speed, plucking power, and run-up for tsunamis of tsunamis and storms. Field data indicate that the Matheson generated by earthquakes with a horizontal component of displace- Formation, which contains boulders in excess of 140 tonnes, was ment (5), for lateral volcanic megablasts, or by the lateral movement produced by a 12- to 13-m-high tsunami with a period in the order of submarine slide sheets. In storm waves, momentum is always im- of 1 h. The origin of the boulders at Annagh Head, which exceed portant(1cubicmeterofseawaterweighsjustover1tonne)in 50 tonnes, is disputed. We combine oceanographic, historical, throwing walls of water continually at a coastline.
    [Show full text]
  • Advances in the Study of Mega-Tsunamis in the Geological Record Raphael Paris, Kazuhisa Goto, James Goff, Hideaki Yanagisawa
    Advances in the study of mega-tsunamis in the geological record Raphael Paris, Kazuhisa Goto, James Goff, Hideaki Yanagisawa To cite this version: Raphael Paris, Kazuhisa Goto, James Goff, Hideaki Yanagisawa. Advances in the study of mega-tsunamis in the geological record. Earth-Science Reviews, Elsevier, 2020, 210, pp.103381. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103381. hal-02964184 HAL Id: hal-02964184 https://hal.uca.fr/hal-02964184 Submitted on 12 Nov 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. 1 Advances in the study of mega-tsunamis in the geological record 2 3 Raphaël Paris1, Kazuhisa Goto2, James Goff3, Hideaki Yanagisawa4 4 1 Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, F-63000 Clermont- 5 Ferrand, France. 6 2 Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Tokyo, Japan. 7 3 PANGEA Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. 8 4 Department of Regional Management, Tohoku Gakuin University, Tenjinsawa 2‑ 1‑ 1, Sendai, Japan. 9 10 Abstract 11 Extreme geophysical events such as asteroid impacts and giant landslides can generate mega- 12 tsunamis with wave heights considerably higher than those observed for other forms of 13 tsunamis.
    [Show full text]
  • Creation Matters Volume 21 Number 1
    Creation Matters Volume 21 Number 1 A publication of the Creation Research Society January / February 2016 (See page 2 for a report from the conference committee.) Scenes from the Now Available in the CRS Bookstore Earth’s Mysterious Magnetism and that of other celestial orbs by Russell Humphreys and Mark De Spain 2015, CRS Books (e-book, 177 pages estimated) Regular price $4.99 r. Humphreys has published widely on the subject of the D magnetism of the Earth and other solar system bodies. Now, all that information has been gathered together into one, generally easy-to-follow, color e-book. The authors have included basic information on magnetism, as well as the decreasing magnetic field of the Earth. Humphreys’ early predictions concerning the magnetic fields of other solar system bodies are summarized as well. Because the decaying field suggests a young Earth, secular scientists have invented the dynamo theory, which is supposed to have powered its magnetic field for billions of years. However, Humphreys has demonstrated this model to be untenable. This book also shows that magnetic field reversals, which have been inferred from the paleomagnetism of the rocks, can be explained by the dynamics of Noah’s Flood. With more than 55 illustrations and a helpful glossary, the book is colorfully and generously illustrated, having been written to the level of the college student and educated layman. The topic is masterfully covered without the use of mathematical equations! Available in Mobi (Kindle), Epub, and PDF formats. Note: A paperback edition is expected to be available in 2016. by the Conference Committee* humans have one less chro- n August, the Creation Research mosome pair than do chimpanzees, evo- Society held a well-attended science lutionists have suggested that, as humans conference, the fifth such gathering evolved from their primate ancestors, hu- I Plenary sessions man chromosome 2 was formed by the the Society has organized since 2009.
    [Show full text]
  • The Scientific and Societal Case for the Integration of Environmental Sensors Into New Submarine Telecommunication Cables I
    Previous reports in the series include Using submarine cables for climate monitoring and disaster warning - Engineering feasibility study Using submarine cables for climate monitoring and disaster warning - Strategy and roadmap The scientific and societal Using submarine cables for climate monitoring and disaster warning - Opportunities and legal challenges case for the integration of environmental sensors into new submarine telecommunication cables ISBN: 978-92-61-15201-7 October 2014 9 7 8 9 2 6 1 1 5 2 0 1 7 Price: 42 CHF About ITU/UNESCO-IOC/WMO Joint Task Force on Green Cables: itu.int/go/ITU-T/greencable/ Printed in Switzerland Geneva, 2014 E-mail: [email protected] Photo credits: Shutterstock® Acknowledgments This report was developed by the Science and Society Committee of the ITU/UNESCO-IOC/WMO Joint Task Force on Green Cables (JTF), under the leadership of Rhett Butler (Chair). This report was researched and written by Rhett Butler (USA), Elizabeth Cochran (USA), John Collins (USA), Marie Eblé (USA), John Evans (USA), Paolo Favali (Italy), Doug Given (USA), Ken Gledhill (New Zealand), Begoña Pérez Gómez (Spain), Kenji Hirata (Japan), Bruce Howe (USA), Doug Luther (USA), Christian Meinig (USA), David Meldrum (UK), John Orcutt (USA), Wahyu Pandoe (Indonesia), Johan Robertsson (Switzerland), Hanne Sagen (Norway), Tom Sanford (USA), Uri ten Brink (USA), Richard Thomson (Canada), Stefano Tinti (Italy), Vasily Titov (USA) and John Yuzhu You (Australia). The authors also wish to extend their gratitude to Thorkild Aarup (UNESCO/IOC), Jérôme Aucan (New Caledonia), Christopher Barnes (Canada), Laura Beranzoli (Italy), Kent Bressie (USA), Nigel Bayliff (UK), Francesco Chierici (Italy), Michael Costin (Australia), Antoine Lecroart (France), Yoshiki Yamazaki (USA) and Nevio Zitellini (Italy) for their contributions.
    [Show full text]
  • 1. Wind Driven 2. Rogue 3. Tsunami 4.Tidal 5. Underwater Or Undersea
    WAVES We will discuss 5 different kinds of waves: 1. Wind driven 2. Rogue 3. Tsunami 4.Tidal 5. Underwater or undersea Waves are important to people since the have an impact on life in the ocean, travel on the ocean and land near the ocean. So we need to look at some of the different types of waves and how they have an impact on things. WIND DRIVEN WAVES While there are many kinds of motions in the ocean, probably the most obvious are the waves. We need a way to discuss waves, so first we need to see how they are measured Waves are measured in specific ways There are many kinds of waves as well. Most of the waves are called “wind driven waves”. These waves are caused by two fluids of different densities moving across one another. In this case one is air the other is water. (You can notice this on a small scale if you blow across a cup of water, or coffee. When you try to cool the liquid and blow across the surface you will notice small “ripples” forming. It is the same principle.) As the wind blows across the water, it sets small “capillary” waves in motion. These are often called “ripples”. (The surface tension of the water, works to end them) These ripples give greater surface area for the wind to blow against and the waves become larger. (These are called “gravity waves” because the force of gravity works to pull them back down to a level ocean.) The area where wind driven waves are created are called “seas”.
    [Show full text]
  • Chapter 3. GEOLOGIC EFFECTS and RECORDS of TSUNAMIS
    Published in: Robinson, A.R. and Bernard, E.N., eds., The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis Harvard University Press, 2009, p. 53-91 Chapter 3. GEOLOGIC EFFECTS AND RECORDS OF TSUNAMIS JOANNE BOURGEOIS Department of Earth & Space Sciences University of Washington 5 March 2008 edition Contents 1. Introduction 2. Historical Review 3. Tsunami Deposits 4. Other Themes in Tsunami Geology 5. Recent Directions in Tsunami Geology and Sedimentology 1. Introduction Nor should we omit to mention the havoc committed on low coasts, during earthquakes, by waves of the sea which roll in upon the land, bearing everything before them, for many miles into the interior throwing down upon the surface great heaps of sand and rock, by which the remains of drowned animals may be overwhelmed. Charles Lyell, 1832 Those of us working on tsunami traces in the 1980s were commonly doubted because some tsunami scientists argued that tsunamis did not leave deposits, and many geologists were skeptical. However, it is clear from the reports of several pre-1980s surveys that tsunamis eroded and deposited not only sand, but also large boulders and coral debris. Moreover, photographs of tsunamis in progress show turbidity--for example, in a well-known 1957 photo series from Oahu, turbidity clearly develops in the nearshore as the tsunami arrives from the Aleutians. Since the 1990s, and certainly since 2004, there is no doubt that tsunamis erode and deposit sediment (Figure 3.1). Relative to other aspects of tsunami science, the study of the geologic record of tsunamis is immature. Only since the mid- to late 1980s has extensive work been done, and 1992 is the first year when there were more than 10 papers published (Figure 3.2).
    [Show full text]
  • Tsunami Information Sources
    UC Berkeley Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory Reports Title Tsunami Information Sources Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4xk8j05g Author Wiegel, Robert L Publication Date 2005-12-14 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory Technical Report UCB/HEL 2005-1 TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES By Robert L. Wiegel, Professor Emeritus Dept. Civil & Environmental Engineering 410 O'Brien Hall, MC 1718 University of California Berkeley, California 94720-1718 14 December 2005 University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Hydraulic Engineering Laboratory, Report UCB/HEL 2005-1 14 December 2005 TSUNAMI INFORMATION SOURCES By Robert L. Wiegel, Professor Emeritus Dept. Civil & Environmental Engineering 410 O'Brien Hall, MC 1718 University of California Berkeley, California 94720-1718 INTRODUCTION I have expanded substantially my list of information sources on: tsunami generation (sources, impulsive mechanisms), propagation, effects of nearshore bathymetry, and wave run-up on shore - including physical (hydraulic) modeling and numerical modeling. This expanded list includes the subjects of field investigations of tsunamis soon after an event; damage effects in harbors on boats, ships, and facilities; tsunami wave-induced forces; damage by tsunami waves to structures on shore; scour/erosion; hazard mitigation; land use planning;
    [Show full text]
  • A Hydrodynamics Perspective for the 2004 Megatsunami
    Proceedings Geohazards Engineering Conferences International Year 2006 A Hydrodynamics Perspective for the 2004 Megatsunami Costas E. Synolakis University of Southern California, Tsunami Research Center, [email protected] This paper is posted at ECI Digital Archives. http://dc.engconfintl.org/geohazards/25 A hydrodynamics perspective for the 2004 megatsunami. Costas Emmanuel Synolakis Tsunami Research Center, Viterbi School of Engineering University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089 and Laboratory of Natural Hazards Technical University of Crete, Chanea, Greece 73100 The megatsunami of 26 December 2004 was the first tsunami with transoceanic impact since the 1960 Great Chilean and 1964 Great Alaskan tsunamis. Because of the distribution of deaths among a large portion of the nations of the world, the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami is the first universal natural disaster of modern times. For the purpose of adequate mitigation of future tsunamis, it is important to understand which factors control most critically the final characteristics of the flooding, namely runup and inundation. Their successful modeling requires not only a credible database of inundation parameters, against which models can be tested through numerical simulation of the generation, propagation to the local shores, and final interaction of the tsunami with the target beaches, but also in situ observations that help identify unusual impact and previously unrecognized or controversial flow patterns. Here, I comment on the hydrodynamic lessons -mostly relearned- and describe remaining challenges. Substantial progress in hydrodynamic science has been possible in the past fifteen years only through tsunami field surveys that have driven the basic research (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006). Field surveys have been instrumental in the development of models, as tsunami science evolved differently from research in other extreme natural hazards - there had been no instrumental recordings of tsunamis in the open ocean until recently.
    [Show full text]
  • The Megatsunami of December 26, 2004
    It is too soon to know if Indian Ocean populations are better prepared today than they were last December. The Megatsunami of December 26, 2004 Costas Synolakis, Emile Okal, and Eddie Bernard From 1992 to 2002, tsunamis in the wake of large, but not gigantic, earth- Costas Synolakis quakes, caused significant damage to coastal areas about once a year. These tsunamis resulted in more than 3,000 fatalities, 2,100 in 1998 alone from the catastrophic tsunami in Papua New Guinea. But these events were dwarfed by the December 26, 2004, megatsunami, with a final death toll that may exceed 230,000. By some accounts, the death toll is higher than for all other tsunamis in the past 300 years combined. Tsunami hazard mitigation involves detection, forecasting, and emer- gency preparedness. Direct tsunami detection is now possible through tsunameters. Real-time forecasting requires not only validated numerical Emile Okal models, but also a reliable database of inundation parameters against which models can be tested through simulations of tsunami generation, propaga- tion, and interaction with the shoreline. Emergency preparedness requires an understanding of the crucial characteristics of flooding, namely run-up, inundation, and overland flow depth. Mitigation measures must also be based on past experience, which can help identify flow phenomena and locales with complexities that are often impossible to anticipate. Costas Synolakis is professor of civil engineering and director of the Tsunami Research Center at University of South- ern California. Emile Okal is professor of geological sciences at Northwestern University. Eddie Bernard is the direc- Eddie Bernard tor of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.
    [Show full text]