FOOD SECURITY AND MARKETS MONITORING REPORT
April 2021
17 April 2021 Contents
Highlights ...... 3
Update on the COVID‐19 Situa on ...... 4
Macro‐Economic Situa on ...... 5
Food and Nutri on Security Situa on ...... 6
Market Performance Update ...... 8
Food Commodity Prices in Foreign Currency (US$ terms) ...... 8
Rural markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL) ...... 9
Urban markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL) ...... 10
Recommenda ons ...... 11
Annex 1: Markets sample and data collec on……………………………………………………………………………...13
Annex 2: Urban Districts Maize Grain Prices ………………………………………………………………………………..13
Annex 3: Rural Districts Maize Grain Prices ………………………………………………………………………………....13
Annex 4: Urban Districts Maize Meal Prices ………………………………………………………………………………...14
Annex 5: Rural Districts Maize Meal Prices …………………………………………………………………………………..14
Annex 6: Urban Districts Sugar Beans Prices ………………………………………………………………………………...15
Annex 7: Rural Districts Sugar Beans Prices ………………………………………………………………………………...15
Annex 8: Urban Districts Vegetable Oil Prices ……………………………………………………………………………..16
Annex 9: Rural Districts Vegetable Oil Prices ……………………………………………………………………………...16
Annex 10: Background and Methodology ……….………………………………………………………………………...16
2 Highlights
The country recorded a total of a total of 1,353 confirmed new COVDI‐19 cases in April, which is an increase compared to March (864) but s ll below the rate in February (2,723); while the death rate con nued a downward trend—44 deaths were reported in April compared to 60 in March and 241 in February 2021.
The number of confirmed cumula ve cases increased by 2% over the repor ng period, from 37,288 cases including 1,538 deaths by 31 March 2021 to 38,433 cases including 1,576 deaths by 11 May 2021.
Annual infla on con nued on a downward trend with infla on being pegged at 194% and food infla on at 217% in April. The Consumer Price Index increased by 1.58% in April compared to March 2021.
The 2021 Second Round Na onal Crop and Livestock Assessment findings showed an improvement of about 199% in maize grain produc on, from about 907,628 MT during the 2019/20 season to 2.7 million MT in the 2020/21 season .
Total cereal ( maize, sorghum and millet) produc on was es mated at 3.1 million MT, which is more than 180% higher than the total annual human consump on requirement of about 1.8 million MT.
In ZWL terms, price of maize grain and maize meal prices decreased marginally by 5% and 2% respec vely, and the price of sugar beans and cooking oil increased by 6% and 4% respec vely. Given the prevailing economic condi ons, prices of basic food commodi es are likely to remain stable over the consump on period 2021/22. In USD terms, prices increased by an average of 2%, with highest price increases reported for maize grain (5%) and sugar beans (2%), while that of maize meal and vegetable oil remained stable.
Supply of maize grain remained cri cally low, reported to be available in only 5% of monitored markets. Availability of maize meal decreased from 77% in March to 69% in April.
Availability of sugar beans decreased from 67% to 60% and that of cooking oil remained the same at 91%.
The price of diesel and petrol remained the same compared to the month of March 2021. Fuel prices are projected to remain stable un l the end of the year following a similar trend observed in 2017/18.
3 1. Update on the COVID‐19 Situa on
The country recorded a total of 1,353 new confirmed COVID‐19 cases in April compared to 864 in March and 2,723 in February, while 44 deaths were reported in April compared to 60 in March and 241 in February 2021. The number of confirmed cumula ve cases increased by 2% from 37,288 cases including 1,538 deaths by 31 March 2021 to 38,433 cases including 1,576 deaths by 11 May 2021 (h ps://covid19.who.int/). Globally, the number of daily new COVID‐19 cases con nued to rise, increasing from 132 million cases at the end of March to 159 million currently, which is a 20% increase.
Countries currently repor ng the highest number of daily new cases include Brazil, India, Russia, Iran and United States. The third wave of the pandemic is spreading to more countries and is reported to be claiming more lives than the previous waves. In Africa, Kenya reported the highest number of third wave cases followed by Ethiopia, Cameroon and Guinea. Zimbabwe con nues to be on high alert on the possibility of a third wave given the public general relaxa on on adherence to WHO guidelines to minimize the spread of the disease.
The vaccina on programme is ongoing in the country with 526,066 people having received their first dose of the Sinopharm vaccine by 09 May 2021 (Ministry of Health and Child Care). Zimbabwe con nues to source vaccina ons mainly from China, Russia and India.
Figure 1: Confirmed daily new cases and 7 day moving average for Zimbabwe (15 Feb 2020 to 10 May 2021)
Source: WHO
4 2. Macro‐Economic Situa on Update
The downward trend in annual infla on that commenced in July 2020 has con nued into April 2021. Annual infla on for April was pegged at 194% while food infla on was es mated at 217% (Figure 2). The Consumer Price Index increased by 1.58% in April compared to March 2021 (h ps://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/Hunger‐Analy cs‐Hub). The downward trend in annual infla on is a ributed to a number of factors including the stabiliza on of the foreign currency exchange rate among other monetary and fiscal measures put in place by the government.
However, in their recent report tled “Demys fying Infla on Decelera on”, ZIMSTAT notes that the infla on slow‐ down—also referred to as infla on increasing at a decreasing rate, does not mean a decrease in the price of goods and services. ZIMSTAT also indicated that given the current persis ng high rate of infla on, the economy could not be considered stable in terms of price increases unless it slows down to around 10 percent or less, as according to interna onal standards.
Figure 2: Zimbabwe Infla on Trends, 2020 – 2021
Source: RBZ, 2021
The official exchange rate con nued to stabilize throughout the repor ng period with an exchange rate of ZWL84.40:1USD being recorded at the start of the month to ZWL84.5:1USD by 30 April (Figure 3). The parallel market rate, which is higher than the official rate, was also rela vely stable at ZWL115:1USD being recorded at the start of the month to ZWL118:1USD by 30 April 2021 (zimrates.com ).
Figure 3: RBZ Official Exchange Rates, 2020—2021 (1USD: ZWL)
Source: RBZ, 2021
5 3. Food and Nutri on Security Situa on
The 2021 Second Round Na onal Crop and Livestock Assessment findings showed an improvement in maize produc on of about 199% from 907,628 MT in the 2019/20 season to an es mated 2.7 million MT in the 2020/21 season. Small grain produc on was es mated at 348,000 MT, which is a 128% increase from the 153,000 MT produced in the previous season. The total cereal produc on was es mated at 3.1 million MT, which is more than 180% higher than the human consump on requirement of about 1.8 million MT. Total food produc on inclusive of grains, pulses and legumes was es mated at 3.8 million MT against a na onal requirement of 2.5 million MT, and more than 200% higher than 1.3 million MT produced during the 2019/20 season. Significant improvements in produc on were also reported for other crops in comparison to last year, including sweet potatoes (269%), sugar beans (142%), rice (105%), co on (94%), groundnuts (134%), soyabeans (51%), round nuts (59%) and tobacco (8%).
The increase in food crops produc on was mainly a ributed to a good rainfall season, an improvement in cereal yield by communal farmers who mainly depend on rainfed agriculture, and the conserva ve crop produc on methodologies promoted by the Government’s Pfubvunza programme. However, cereal yields for communal farmers who did not prac ce Pfubvunza remained below a tonne per hectare (es mated at 0.87 tonnes/ hectare) due to a number of factors including limited or no mechanisa on, poor access to inputs and poor farming prac ces. At district level, cereals produced is adequate to cover the needs of the local popula on except for Gweru, Chiredzi and Chivi where cereal sufficiency is es mated for a maximum of 6 months. Mutare, Mangwe and Mwenezi Districts were also es mated have cereal sufficiency for up to 9 months (Figure 4). The situa on is different at ward level with some wards (highlighted in red in Figure 5) are expected to facing a gap with an es mated in cereal sufficiency of 3 months or less.
Figure 4: Cereal sufficiency at district level Figure 5: Cereal sufficiency at ward level
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Second Round Crop and Livestock Report
Figure 6: Cereal surplus/deficit by ward A number of wards mainly in the southern parts of the country are faced with a deficit and will not be able to meet their consump on needs from their local produc on (Figure 6). Households from these wards are likely to rely on the market to supplement own produc on. However, vulnerable households might not be able to meet their food security threshholds without external assistance.
6 According to the FEWSNET Food Security Outlook for April, most rural households are likely to be experiencing IPC phase 2 (Stressed) and phase 1 (Minimal) food security outcomes from April to May, except for some households in the southern parts who are likely to remain in the Stressed (IPC 2!) category. These findings are in line with the findings of the WFP HungerMap LIVE monitoring system (h ps://hungermap.wfp.org/) that showed a decrease in the number of people experiencing insufficient food consump on from 5.9 million during the last week of March to 5.1 million by the last week of April (figure 7). The number of people resor ng to crisis or emergency coping strategies was es mated at 3 million during the last week of April. The downward trend in the number of people experiencing insufficient food consump on is likely to con nue during the harvest and post harvest period i.e. May to September, but an increase could be observed star ng in September—par cularly in areas where cereal sufficiency is expected to be three months or less, and into the lean period from October to March 2022.
Figure 7: Zimbabwe Hunger Map
Source: h ps://hungermap.wfp.org/
Agricultural related casual labour opportuni es were reported to be mainly concentrated on harves ng and processing of crop produce. The tobacco selling season started in April and this is likely to improve the disposable income for those households dealing with the crop, although they are few due to the large capital investment required. The co on selling season is also star ng mid‐May, which will likely improve incomes for the households in co on producing areas. In districts like Chiredzi and Mwenezi that experienced outbreaks of pests such as locusts and mopane worms, households are reported to be receiving cash in exchange for these.
The na onal beef ca le herd was reported to have marginally increased by 0.64% from 5.4 million in 2019 to 5.5 million in 2020. An increase in produc on of about 2.7% was reported for both goats and sheep. Ca le mortality rate was reported to have increased from 5% in 2019 to 9% in 2020. Livestock condi on was reported to be ranging from fair to good during the assessment period, and is likely to con nue improving as a result of the good condi on and quality of the grazing pasture.
7 4. Market Performance Update
This sec on provides a summary of food commodity availability and prices for both rural and urban markets covering maize grain, maize meal, sugar beans and vegetable oil, as well as na onal price trends over me. The findings are based on monitored markets across 32 districts/domains (15 rural and 17 urban); 67% of the interviews were conducted remotely whilst 33% through face to face. Table 1 below shows the na onal summary of availability and prices for the four commodi es over the month of April.
Table 1: Overall market trends for food basket commodi es in rural and urban markets
Maize Grain Maize meal Sugar beans Vegetable Oil
Maize grain supply remained Availability decreased by 8% Availability of sugar beans Availability remained high and cri cally low, reported to be in rural areas and remained decreased by 13% in rural stable with the commodity available in only 1% in rural stable in urban markets. markets but remained the available in most rural (94%)
markets and 10% in urban same in urban markets. and urban (88%) markets.
surveyed markets.
Maize grain prices remained Maize meal price remained Prices of sugar beans de‐ Prices increased marginally in stable in rural markets and stable in rural and marginal- creased in rural areas by 5% both rural and urban markets increased by 6% in urban ly dropped in urban (3%) and increased in urban areas by (2%) and (5%) respec vely. markets. markets compared to the by 8%. previous month.
Food Commodity Prices in Foreign Currency (US$ terms)
Cereal prices slightly rose during the repor ng period; the average price of maize grain decreased by 5% from US$0.40/kg in March to US$0.36/kg in April, and the price of maize meal remained stable at an average of US$0.57/ kg similar to US$0.60/kg reported in March. Sugar beans were selling at an average price of US$2.45/kg an increase of 3% from an average of US$2.37/kg recorded in March. Vegetable oil price remained stable at US$1.79/L in April.
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring Non‐Food Commodi es: Laundry and Bathing soap
Laundry and bathing soap were both available in 85% and 88% of the monitored markets respec vely, which is comparable to last month. Laundry soap was selling at an average price of ZWL118.14/bar in local currency and US$1.18/bar, prices which are rela vely stable when compared to March 2021. Bathing soap was selling at an average price of ZWL70.18/250g in local currency and US$0.67. There were no significant differences in the prices between laundry and bathing soap.
8
Rural markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL)
Maize Grain Maize grain supply remained cri cally low across rural markets; the commodity was reported to be available in only 1% of all monitored markets compared to 5% in March 2021.
During the month under review, average selling prices in
rural decreased by 3% from ZWL40.28/kg in March to an average of ZWL38.89/kg in April (Figure 8). Compared to the same period in April 2020, the price increased by more than 230% from an average of ZWL11.65/kg. For district level data, see annex 3. Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Unrefined Maize Meal
Availability of unrefined maize meal dropped by 8% from an average of 70% in March to 58% in April. Rushinga had the lowest recorded availability at an average of 12%. The decrease in availability of maize meal could be due to a decrease in demand as household are star ng to con‐ sume from own produc on. Some traders in the high cereal producing areas do not usually stock maize meal during harvest period.
The average price of maize meal remained stable at
ZWL59.62/kg compared to ZWL59.12/kg recorded in Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring March 2021 (Figure 9). Compared to the same me last year, the price of maize meal in rural markets increased by more than 300% from an average of ZWL14.85/kg. For more details on district prices see annex 5.
Sugar Beans Sugar beans availability dropped from 51% of rural moni‐ tored markets in March to 38% in April 2021.
The current monthly average price of ZWL259.40/kg is 5% higher than ZWL247.94/kg in March 2021 and 246% high‐ er than ZWL74.95/kg reported a year ago in April 2020 (Figure 10). The average price was highest in Insiza at Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring ZWL293.40/kg and lowest in Buhera at ZWL200.00/kg (annex 7).
Vegetable Oil Vegetable oil con nued to be available in most of the markets (94%), in line with what was reported in recent months. All monitored districts recorded above 60% avail‐ ability.
The commodity was selling at an average price of ZWL185.56/L which is 2% higher than the previous month price of ZWL182.27/L (Figure 11). The current price for Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring rural markets is 145% higher than an average of ZWL75.68/L reported in April 2020. For more district level informa on, see annex 8. 9 Urban markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars Maize Grain Maize grain remained largely unavailable in urban mar‐
kets; marginally rising from 6% in March 2021 to 10% in April.
The average price of maize grain dropped by 6% to an average of ZWL38.69/kg in April 2021 from ZWL40.96/kg
in March (Figure 12). The current average price for urban markets is about 235% higher than an average of ZWL11.54/kg reported in April 2020. Norton reported the highest price at ZWL45.53/kg whilst Gweru urban record‐ ed the lowest price for the commodity at ZWL31.33/kg (annex 2). Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Unrefined Maize Meal Maize meal was in supply across all monitored urban domains, was reported to be available in 80% of all moni‐ tored markets, which is comparable to the previous month. (annex 4).
The average price of maize meal in urban markets de‐ creased by 3% from ZWL61.36/kg in March 2021 to ZWL59.71/kg in April 2021 (Figure 13) and more than 300% higher than ZWL14.62/kg reported for urban mar‐ kets in April 2020. The highest price was recorded in Kwe‐ kwe urban at an average of ZWL69.90/kg. The lowest Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring price was recorded in Chiredzi at ZWL54.84.
Sugar Beans Sugar beans were available in all monitored urban districts, and in 80% of monitored markets compared to 79% reported for March. There was no availability in Chip‐ inge and Chirumhanzu and Buhera had 5% availability (annex 6).
The average price for sugar beans in April was ZWL259.40/kg up from ZWL240.40/kg in March, repre‐ sen ng an 8% increase (Figure 14). The current price is about 250% higher than the average for urban markets of ZWL73.95/kg reported in April 2020. The highest price Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring was in Chegutu urban at ZWL302.65/kg and lowest in Kwekwe urban at ZWL220.14/kg.
Vegetable Oil Cooking oil was available across most urban domains monitored and reported available in 88% of the markets. The average price in April was ZWL190.64/L up from WL181.25/L in March, represen ng a 5% increase. When compared to the same period last year, the current price is about 145% higher compared to ZWL69.68/L reported in April 2020. Chipinge Urban had the highest prices at ZWL204.75/L and the lowest was Redcliffe at ZWL171.00/ Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring L (annex 8).
10
5. Recommenda ons
Key recommenda ons emana ng from the analysis above include;
Con nue monitoring the food and nutri on security situa on in areas with gaps in cereal sufficiency. Con nue monitoring food security condi ons using the HungerMap LIVE monitoring pla orm, par cularly in urban areas where food insecurity has deteriorated over the past year. The availability of maize grain con nues to be poor, therefore there is need to:
monitor maize grain imports;
monitor price fluctua ons in both urban and rural markets; con nue assessing feasibility and best modality of assistance by geographical level;
conduct a comprehensive study to understand the market linkages with source markets.
11
5. Annexes Annex 1: Markets sample and data collec on This report provides an update on WFP food basket commodi es availability and prices. It covers the period from the 1st of April to 30th of April 2021 and is based on interviews with 800 traders, including 386 in rural districts and 414 in urban districts, across 32 districts/ domains (15 rural and 17 urban). Annexes 10-12 explain the trend arrows used in the highlights.
Due to COVID-19 restric ons most of the data collec on is virtual. The propor on of remote to face-face monitoring decreased further to 67% in March from 76% in in February. The decline is likely related to ease of the lockdown condi ons which saw opening of informal traders and increased movement. Annex 2: Urban Districts Maize Grain Prices
Availability Prices % Price Change Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Mobile Monthly Monthly 6M ZWL ZWL 6M % current previous current previous current Money current current Cash change Change availabilit availabilit average average average Premium average average Average (%) from y (1-31 y (1-28 Price Price Price (%) Price Price (Septembe previous District/Urban Domain March Feb (ZWL) (1- (ZWL) (1- (Mobile (USD) (1- (Rands) r 2020- period 2021) 2021) 31 March 28 Feb money) (1- 31 March (1-31 March (Feb 2021) 2021) 31 March 2021) March 2021) 2021- 2021) 2021) March 2021) Maize Grain Urban Districts Bulawayo 0% 0% Beitbridge 0% Chegutu Urban 0% 0% Chinhoyi Urban 0% 0% Chipinge Urban 0% 0% Chiredzi Urban 13% 17% ZWL 37.04 ZWL 40.28 ZWL 41.67 13% $0.37 R 6.30 ZWL 36.85 -8% 1% Epworth 0% 0% Gokwe North (Nembudziya) 0% 0% Gokwe South Urban 0% 0% Goromonzi Urban 0% 0% Gweru Urban 13% 7% ZWL 42.23 ZWL 45.00 $0.42 R 8.45 ZWL 31.87 -6% 33% Harare 0% 0% Hwange 0% Insiza Urban 0% 0% Kariba Urban 6% 11% ZWL 33.34 ZWL 33.34 $0.33 ZWL 27.36 0% 22% Kwekwe Urban 6% 0% ZWL 44.45 ZWL 50.00 12% $0.44 ZWL 31.67 40% Marondera Urban 0% 0% Masvingo Urban 20% 3% ZWL 38.61 ZWL 43.34 12% $0.38 R 7.04 ZWL 80.87 -52% Mutare Urban 10% 20% ZWL 38.89 ZWL 36.95 $0.39 ZWL 27.10 5% 43% Norton 30% 12% ZWL 47.78 $0.40 ZWL 25.65 86% Plumtree 0% 0% Redcliff 8% ZWL 38.89 ZWL 38.89 0% $0.39 ZWL 28.71 35% Rusape Urban 0% 0% Tsholotsho Urban 0% 0% Victoria Falls 0% 0% Total 4% 3% ZWL 40.15 ZWL 38.89 ZWL 43.48 9% $0.39 R7.26 ZWL 36.26 -2% 26%
Annex 3: Rural Districts Maize Grain Prices
12 Annex 4: Urban Districts Maize Meal Prices
Annex 5: Rural Districts Maize Meal Prices Availability Prices % Price Change Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Mobile Monthly Monthly 6M ZWL ZWL 6M % current previous current previous current Money current current Cash change Change availabilit availabilit average average average Premium average average Average (%) from y (1-31 y (1-28 Price (ZWL) Price Price (%) Price Price (September previous District March Feb (1-31 (ZWL) (1- (Mobile (USD) (1- (Rands) 2020- period 2021) 2021) March 28 Feb money) (1- 31 March (1-31 March (Feb 2021) 2021) 31 March 2021) March 2021) 2021- 2021) 2021) March 2021) Maize Grain Rural Districts Bikita 13% 0% ZWL 33.34 ZWL 33.89 2% $0.33 R5.67 ZWL 33.34 0% Binga 17% 13% ZWL 31.95 ZWL 28.06 $0.33 ZWL 28.34 14% 13% Buhera 0% Bulawayo Rural 0% 0% Chipinge 22% 6% ZWL 32.41 ZWL 38.89 $0.33 R5.56 ZWL 35.68 -17% -9% Chirumhanzu 4% ZWL 46.67 ZWL 95.56 $0.46 Chivi 0% 0% Gweru 0% 0% Hwange 0% Insiza 0% 0% Mangwe 0% 0% Masvingo 25% 0% R6.67 ZWL 34.13 Matobo 0% 0% Muzarabani 27% 16% ZWL 38.89 ZWL 40.08 ZWL 38.89 0% $0.39 ZWL 36.95 -3% 5% Mwenezi 50% 19% ZWL 45.41 ZWL 47.11 $0.44 R6.95 ZWL 49.17 -4% -8% Nkayi 0% 1% ZWL 44.45 Rushinga 0% Tsholotsho 0% 0% UMP 3% 6% ZWL 33.34 ZWL 35.19 $0.33 ZWL 35.19 -5% -5% Total 8% 4% ZWL 37.43 ZWL 38.96 ZWL 56.12 1% $0.38 R6.21 ZWL 36.11 ‐3% ‐1%
13 Annex 6: Urban Districts Sugar Beans Prices
Annex 7: Rural Districts Sugar Beans Prices
14 Annex 8: Urban Districts Vegetable Oil Prices
Annex 9: Rural Districts Vegetable Oil Prices
15 Annex 11: Background and Methodology Checking Availability at market level: If any of the interviewed traders in a market reports having sold a commodity within the last week, the commodity is considered available in this market. Availability at country-level (district-level) is calculated as the share of markets with commodity availability across the country (across districts). Missing data indicate that none of the interviewed traders generally trades the commodity.
The harmonised weekly market monitoring is being conducted by WFP in partnership with members of the Cash Assistance Working Group (CWG), including World Vision Interna onal, CARE, Oxfam, Aquaculture Zimbabwe, Caritas Zimbabwe, Chris an Aid, GOAL Zimbabwe, HOCIC, Mercy Corps, IRC, ORAP, Zimbabwe Red Cross Society, Ac on Aid, LEAD, LGDA, CAFOD, AfriCare, CTDO, ADRA, MDTC, Plan Interna onal and WeEffect.
16 World Food Programme
15 Natal Road, Belgravia, Harare, Zimbabwe wfp.org
Francesca Erdelmann, Country Director and Representa ve Contact: VAM Unit, [email protected]