FOOD SECURITY AND MARKETS MONITORING REPORT April 2021 17 April 2021 Contents Highlights ............................................................................................................................................... 3 Update on the COVID‐19 Situaon ....................................................................................................... 4 Macro‐Economic Situaon ................................................................................................................... 5 Food and Nutrion Security Situaon ................................................................................................... 6 Market Performance Update ............................................................................................................... 8 Food Commodity Prices in Foreign Currency (US$ terms) .............................................................................. 8 Rural markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL) ............................................... 9 Urban markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL) ............................................ 10 Recommendaons .............................................................................................................................. 11 Annex 1: Markets sample and data collecon……………………………………………………………………………...13 Annex 2: Urban Districts Maize Grain Prices ………………………………………………………………………………..13 Annex 3: Rural Districts Maize Grain Prices ………………………………………………………………………………....13 Annex 4: Urban Districts Maize Meal Prices ………………………………………………………………………………...14 Annex 5: Rural Districts Maize Meal Prices …………………………………………………………………………………..14 Annex 6: Urban Districts Sugar Beans Prices ………………………………………………………………………………...15 Annex 7: Rural Districts Sugar Beans Prices ………………………………………………………………………………...15 Annex 8: Urban Districts Vegetable Oil Prices ……………………………………………………………………………..16 Annex 9: Rural Districts Vegetable Oil Prices ……………………………………………………………………………...16 Annex 10: Background and Methodology ……….………………………………………………………………………...16 2 Highlights The country recorded a total of a total of 1,353 confirmed new COVDI‐19 cases in April, which is an increase compared to March (864) but sll below the rate in February (2,723); while the death rate connued a downward trend—44 deaths were reported in April compared to 60 in March and 241 in February 2021. The number of confirmed cumulave cases increased by 2% over the reporng period, from 37,288 cases including 1,538 deaths by 31 March 2021 to 38,433 cases including 1,576 deaths by 11 May 2021. Annual inflaon connued on a downward trend with inflaon being pegged at 194% and food inflaon at 217% in April. The Consumer Price Index increased by 1.58% in April compared to March 2021. The 2021 Second Round Naonal Crop and Livestock Assessment findings showed an improvement of about 199% in maize grain producon, from about 907,628 MT during the 2019/20 season to 2.7 million MT in the 2020/21 season . Total cereal ( maize, sorghum and millet) producon was esmated at 3.1 million MT, which is more than 180% higher than the total annual human consumpon requirement of about 1.8 million MT. In ZWL terms, price of maize grain and maize meal prices decreased marginally by 5% and 2% respecvely, and the price of sugar beans and cooking oil increased by 6% and 4% respecvely. Given the prevailing economic condions, prices of basic food commodies are likely to remain stable over the consumpon period 2021/22. In USD terms, prices increased by an average of 2%, with highest price increases reported for maize grain (5%) and sugar beans (2%), while that of maize meal and vegetable oil remained stable. Supply of maize grain remained crically low, reported to be available in only 5% of monitored markets. Availability of maize meal decreased from 77% in March to 69% in April. Availability of sugar beans decreased from 67% to 60% and that of cooking oil remained the same at 91%. The price of diesel and petrol remained the same compared to the month of March 2021. Fuel prices are projected to remain stable unl the end of the year following a similar trend observed in 2017/18. 3 1. Update on the COVID‐19 Situaon The country recorded a total of 1,353 new confirmed COVID‐19 cases in April compared to 864 in March and 2,723 in February, while 44 deaths were reported in April compared to 60 in March and 241 in February 2021. The number of confirmed cumulave cases increased by 2% from 37,288 cases including 1,538 deaths by 31 March 2021 to 38,433 cases including 1,576 deaths by 11 May 2021 (hps://covid19.who.int/). Globally, the number of daily new COVID‐19 cases connued to rise, increasing from 132 million cases at the end of March to 159 million currently, which is a 20% increase. Countries currently reporng the highest number of daily new cases include Brazil, India, Russia, Iran and United States. The third wave of the pandemic is spreading to more countries and is reported to be claiming more lives than the previous waves. In Africa, Kenya reported the highest number of third wave cases followed by Ethiopia, Cameroon and Guinea. Zimbabwe connues to be on high alert on the possibility of a third wave given the public general relaxaon on adherence to WHO guidelines to minimize the spread of the disease. The vaccinaon programme is ongoing in the country with 526,066 people having received their first dose of the Sinopharm vaccine by 09 May 2021 (Ministry of Health and Child Care). Zimbabwe connues to source vaccinaons mainly from China, Russia and India. Figure 1: Confirmed daily new cases and 7 day moving average for Zimbabwe (15 Feb 2020 to 10 May 2021) Source: WHO 4 2. Macro‐Economic Situaon Update The downward trend in annual inflaon that commenced in July 2020 has connued into April 2021. Annual inflaon for April was pegged at 194% while food inflaon was esmated at 217% (Figure 2). The Consumer Price Index increased by 1.58% in April compared to March 2021 (hps://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/Hunger‐Analycs‐Hub). The downward trend in annual inflaon is aributed to a number of factors including the stabilizaon of the foreign currency exchange rate among other monetary and fiscal measures put in place by the government. However, in their recent report tled “Demysfying Inflaon Deceleraon”, ZIMSTAT notes that the inflaon slow‐ down—also referred to as inflaon increasing at a decreasing rate, does not mean a decrease in the price of goods and services. ZIMSTAT also indicated that given the current persisng high rate of inflaon, the economy could not be considered stable in terms of price increases unless it slows down to around 10 percent or less, as according to internaonal standards. Figure 2: Zimbabwe Inflaon Trends, 2020 – 2021 Source: RBZ, 2021 The official exchange rate connued to stabilize throughout the reporng period with an exchange rate of ZWL84.40:1USD being recorded at the start of the month to ZWL84.5:1USD by 30 April (Figure 3). The parallel market rate, which is higher than the official rate, was also relavely stable at ZWL115:1USD being recorded at the start of the month to ZWL118:1USD by 30 April 2021 (zimrates.com ). Figure 3: RBZ Official Exchange Rates, 2020—2021 (1USD: ZWL) Source: RBZ, 2021 5 3. Food and Nutrion Security Situaon The 2021 Second Round Naonal Crop and Livestock Assessment findings showed an improvement in maize producon of about 199% from 907,628 MT in the 2019/20 season to an esmated 2.7 million MT in the 2020/21 season. Small grain producon was esmated at 348,000 MT, which is a 128% increase from the 153,000 MT produced in the previous season. The total cereal producon was esmated at 3.1 million MT, which is more than 180% higher than the human consumpon requirement of about 1.8 million MT. Total food producon inclusive of grains, pulses and legumes was esmated at 3.8 million MT against a naonal requirement of 2.5 million MT, and more than 200% higher than 1.3 million MT produced during the 2019/20 season. Significant improvements in producon were also reported for other crops in comparison to last year, including sweet potatoes (269%), sugar beans (142%), rice (105%), coon (94%), groundnuts (134%), soyabeans (51%), round nuts (59%) and tobacco (8%). The increase in food crops producon was mainly aributed to a good rainfall season, an improvement in cereal yield by communal farmers who mainly depend on rainfed agriculture, and the conservave crop producon methodologies promoted by the Government’s Pfubvunza programme. However, cereal yields for communal farmers who did not pracce Pfubvunza remained below a tonne per hectare (esmated at 0.87 tonnes/ hectare) due to a number of factors including limited or no mechanisaon, poor access to inputs and poor farming pracces. At district level, cereals produced is adequate to cover the needs of the local populaon except for Gweru, Chiredzi and Chivi where cereal sufficiency is esmated for a maximum of 6 months. Mutare, Mangwe and Mwenezi Districts were also esmated have cereal sufficiency for up to 9 months (Figure 4). The situaon is different at ward level with some wards (highlighted in red in Figure 5) are expected to facing a gap with an esmated in cereal sufficiency of 3 months or less. Figure 4: Cereal sufficiency at district level Figure 5: Cereal sufficiency at ward level Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Second Round Crop and Livestock Report Figure 6: Cereal surplus/deficit by ward A number of wards mainly in the southern parts of the country are faced with a deficit and will not be able to meet their consumpon needs from their local