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Meridian Energy NEW ZEALAND Meridian Energy Performance evaluation Meridian Energy equity valuation Macquarie Research’s discounted cashflow-based equity valuation for Meridian Energy (MER) is $6,463m (nominal WACC 8.6%, asset beta 0.60, TGR 3.0%). We have assumed, in this estimate, that MER receives $750m for its Tekapo A and B assets. Forecast financial model Inside A detailed financial model with explicit forecasts out to 2030 has been completed and is summarised in this report. Performance evaluation 2 Financial model assumptions and commentary Valuation summary 5 We have assessed the sensitivity of our equity valuation to a range of inputs. Financial model assumptions and Broadly, the sensitivities are divided into four categories: generation commentary 7 assumptions, electricity demand, financial and price path. Financial statements summary 15 We highlight and discuss a number of key model input assumptions in the report: Financial flexibility and generation Wholesale electricity price path; development 18 Electricity demand and pricing; Sensitivities 19 The New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) supply contract; Alternative valuation methodologies 20 Relative disclosure 21 MER’s generation development pipeline. Alternative valuation methodology We have assessed a comparable company equity valuation for the company of $4,942m-$6,198m. This is based on the current earnings multiples of listed comparable generator/retailers globally. This valuation provides a cross-check of the equity valuation based on our primary methodology, discounted cashflow. This valuation range lies below our primary valuation due, in part, to the recent de-rating of global renewable energy multiples (absolutely and vis-a-vis conventional generators). Relative disclosure We have assessed the disclosure levels of MER’s financial reports and presentations over the last financial period against listed and non-listed companies operating in the electricity generation and energy retailing sector in New Zealand. This bespoke research is provided for the use of the New Zealand Treasury. Stephen Hudson +64 9 363 1414 [email protected] 1 November 2010 Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Meridian Energy Performance evaluation Meridian Energy equity valuation Macquarie Research’s discounted cashflow-based equity valuation for Meridian Energy is $6,463m (nominal post tax WACC 8.6%, asset beta 0.60, TGR 3.0%). We have assumed, in this estimate, that MER will receive $750m for its Tekapo A and B assets. Forecast financial model A detailed financial model with explicit forecasts out to 2030 has been completed and is summarised in this report. We have used actual financial results from FY08 as a base. Sensitivity analysis of main valuation drivers We have assessed the sensitivity of our equity valuation to a range of inputs. Broadly, the sensitivities are divided into four categories: generation assumptions, electricity demand, financial and price path. Alternative valuation methodologies We have assessed a comparable company equity valuation for the company of $4,942m- $6,198m. This is based on the current earnings multiples of listed comparable generator/retailers globally. The band is based on the average multiple for selected global generators with a bias toward conventional generation ranging to the average multiple for selected global renewable generators. Macquarie has then applied a relatively arbitrary premium to this range to account for MER’s renewable generation bias and its pipeline of generation development options. This valuation provides a cross-check of the equity valuation based on our primary methodology, discounted cashflow. This valuation range lies below our primary valuation due, in part, to the recent de-rating of global renewable energy multiples (absolutely and vis- a-vis conventional generators). A sum of the parts valuation may provide another useful cross-check but is heavily dependent on the electricity transfer price assumed. Financial model assumptions and commentary We highlight and discuss a number of key model input assumptions in the report: Development pipeline. The company has proposed a number of greenfield wind and hydro generation developments totalling in excess of 1,300 MW in New Zealand. We have explicitly modelled projects which appear to have a high probability of being completed in a 1-5 year timeframe. For our purposes, these are Te Uku, Project Central Wind and Mill Creek. MER has an equity funding exposure to the Macarthur wind farm project of around A$150m over FY11. We have not explicitly modelled this due to limited project information. Retail and SME pricing. As at August 2010, Meridian Energy was pricing the energy component of its mass market electricity volumes at an approximate 8.4% discount to the average market pricing – up from an approximate 2.9% discount a year ago. We have attempted to back out Meridian Energy’s commercial/SME fixed pricing by calculating the commercial/SME pricing discount seen in historical periods (based on pricing information from the MED). We assume a 15% discount in pricing our forecasts. NZAS supply contract renewal and pricing. We have incorporated our interpretation of MER’s New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) contract volumes and pricing into our forecasts. Essentially, 572 MW (continuous) is priced from January 2013 at a base price around 10% higher than the base price (i.e., energy only) under the existing supply contract. This base price is subject to escalation with reference to a multi-year average NZ electricity market price, the world price for aluminium, and a component as a proxy for price inflation. 1 November 2010 2 Macquarie Research Meridian Energy Fig 1 NZAS historical power price 31/12/2009 31/12/2008 31/12/2007 31/12/2006 NZAS power purchases $292.7m $310.1m $299.9m $276.1m Power usage 576 MW 413 MW 608 MW 604 MW Implied cost / MWh – energy only 5.8c/kWh 8.6c/kWh 5.6c/kWh 5.2c/kWh Source: Macquarie Research, October 2010 Source: NZAS Annual Report, December 2009 Wholesale electricity price paths. We have adjusted our wholesale electricity price forecast since the last MER performance evaluation report – Meridian Energy: Performance Evaluation (published 5 October 2009) - see below graph. Based on expected demand and supply (taking into account future projects coming online), we continue to expect the wholesale electricity price to approach the LRMC of wind generation by 2020 (the year in which other, cheaper, generation alternatives have been exhausted). We think new thermal generation capacity will be limited (beyond Contact’s Taranaki peakers) due to difficulties in obtaining adequate gas supply and to the availability of cheaper geothermal development options. We estimate the current LRMC of wind at $100/MWh (2010$). We note, however, that this LRMC is highly sensitive to currency, turbine pricing and cost of capital assumptions. The price paths have been updated to reflect expected weakness in wholesale prices over the next two years, primarily due to lower expected load growth. We assess the impact of the EIA reforms on pricing and volume later in this report. Fig 2 Wholesale and retail electricity price path forecasts $NZ Wholesale electricity price FY10 ($/MWh) Retail electricity price FY10 (c/kWh) 300.0 Wholesale electricity price FY09 ($/MWh) Retail electricity price FY09 (c/kWh) 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Macquarie Research, October 2010 We recognise that the rate of growth in the retail price path falls short of that of wholesale prices as currently modelled and, as such, is conservatively struck. Electricity Industry Act. Macquarie Securities has attempted to capture the impact of the physical and virtual asset swaps (VAS) impact contained in the legislation. We have assumed a three-year progressive ramp-up for the Meridian Energy-GEN swap to an ultimate volume of 450 GWh. We have assumed a three-year progressive ramp-up to the Meridian Energy-MRP ultimate swap volume of 700 GWh. The Tekapo A and B transfer is assumed to be effective 1 November 2010 and priced at the mid-point of the valuation range indicated in the Office of the Minister of Energy and Resources cabinet paper dated 9 December 2009 (i.e., $700m-800m). We have stepped down our TOU, SME and mass market volumes proportionately for FY11- 13 to reflect the Tekapo A and B station mean output (de-rated for a ‘very-dry’ year). 1 November 2010 3 Macquarie Research Meridian Energy The VAS contracts are assumed to be priced at fair value. Fig 3 Meridian Energy summary financials (MER: $4.04) Profit & Loss 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E Operating Revenue $m 1892 20622108 2121 EBITDAF $m 512 642628 599 Depreciation $m (150) (174)(188) (185) Amortisation $m (13) (14)0 0 EBIT - Recurring $m 361 465441 413 EBIT $m 229 386441 413 Net Interest Expense $m (101) (108)(119) (86) Pre-Taxation Profit $m 128 277322 327 Taxation Expense $m (39) (93)(95) (92) Profit after Taxation $m 89 184 227 235 Adjustments after income tax $m 132 80 0 0 expense Adjusted Earnings1 $m 221 264227 235 1. Adjusted for significant one-off items and the change in the fair value of financial instruments Key Assumptions GWAP $/MWh 46.0 52.259.3 59.9 Total generation GWh 12,237 13,86213,216 13,005 LWAP/GWAP x 1.33 1.221.18 1.18 FPVV GWh 1,810 1,7471,623 1,563 Retail electricity price growth % 4.42% 2.62%
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