DOCSLIB.ORG

Meridian Energy

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

NEW ZEALAND Meridian Energy Performance evaluation Meridian Energy equity valuation Macquarie Research’s discounted cashflow-based equity valuation for Meridian Energy (MER) is $6,531m (nominal WACC 8.6%, asset beta 0.60, TGR 3.0%). Forecast financial model A detailed financial model with explicit forecasts out to 2030 has been completed and is summarised in this report. Inside Financial model assumptions and commentary Performance evaluation 2 We discuss a number of key model input assumptions in the report including: Valuation summary 6 Wholesale and retail electricity price paths; Financial model assumptions 8 Electricity purchase to sales price ratio pre and post the HVDC link upgrade; Financial statements summary 18 HVDC link charging regime; Financial flexibility and generation Electricity demand growth by customer type; development 21 The impact of the Electricity Industry Act (EIA) asset transfer and VAS’; Sensitivities 22 The New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) supply contract; Alternative valuation methodologies 23 Relative disclosure 24 MER’s generation development pipeline. Appendix – Valuation Bridge 26 Equity valuation sensitivities are provided on key variables. Alternative valuation methodology We have assessed a comparable company equity valuation for the company of $5,179m-$5,844m. This is based on the current earnings multiples of listed comparable generator/retailers globally. This valuation provides a cross-check of the equity valuation based on our primary methodology, discounted cashflow. This valuation range lies below our primary valuation due, in part to the positive net present value of modelled development projects included in our primary valuation. Relative disclosure We have assessed the disclosure levels of MER’s financial reports and presentations over the last financial period against listed and non-listed companies operating in the electricity generation and energy retailing sector in New Zealand. This bespoke research is provided for the use of the New Zealand Treasury. * Benmore Power Station (pictured) Stephen Hudson +64 9 363 1414 [email protected] 8 November 2011 Macquarie Securities (NZ) Limited Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures. Macquarie Research Meridian Energy Performance evaluation Meridian Energy equity valuation Macquarie Research’s discounted cashflow-based equity valuation for Meridian Energy is $6,531m (nominal post tax WACC 8.6%, asset beta 0.60, TGR 3.0%). Forecast financial model A detailed financial model with explicit forecasts out to 2030 has been completed and is summarised in this report. We have used actual financial results from FY11 as a base. Sensitivity analysis of main valuation drivers We have assessed the sensitivity of our equity valuation to a range of inputs. Broadly, the sensitivities are divided into four categories: generation assumptions, electricity demand, financial and price path. Alternative valuation methodologies We have assessed a comparable company equity valuation for the company of $5,179m- $5,844m. The band is based on the average multiple for generators that are considered to be the closest comparable companies to Meridian Energy (Contact Energy and TrustPower). We then applied a band to this multiple to account for MER’s higher renewable generation bias and its relatively large pipeline of generation development options (at the upper end) and its high relative historic earnings volatility (at the lower end). The band involves subjective judgement, as only some of these factors can be isolated and quantified. Renewable generation companies globally are generally accorded a higher capitalisation multiple than conventional generators reflecting the value of a free- or low-fuel position when electricity price paths are positively sloped. This multiple has been compressed in recent years as perceived risks over renewable generation incentives have heightened. NZ generators trade at a premium to their international counterparts partly due this country’s low reliance on incentive regimes. This valuation provides a cross-check of the equity valuation based on our primary methodology, discounted cashflow. This valuation range lies below our primary valuation, due in part to the positive net present value of modelled development projects included in our primary valuation. Financial model assumptions and commentary We highlight and discuss a number of key model input assumptions in the report: Wholesale and retail electricity price paths: We have reconstructed our wholesale electricity price path forecast since the 2010 commercial valuation report. Based on expected demand and supply (taking into account future projects coming online), we continue to think that the wholesale electricity price path will approach the LRMC of wind generation by 2021 (the year in which other, cheaper, generation alternatives would be exhausted). We estimate the current LRMC of wind at $90/MWh (2011 dollars); this is lower than the previously estimated $100/MWh primarily due to a higher LT NZD/EUR assumption and a lower EUR denominated capital cost. Nearer term, prices are expected to generally fall somewhat short of LRMC-based prices given a flat demand outlook (although this will be dependent on hydrology conditions). Our retail price path for Meridian has lifted marginally despite a shift down in our wholesale price path. This reflects a slightly higher target long-run industry retail margin of around 6% and the modelling of separate retail price paths for gentailers (previously a uniform price path). Overall, we forecast that long-run wholesale and retail prices increase by an average 7% pa and 3% pa, respectively. The difference is mainly explained by the current low wholesale prices and relatively low network cost growth. 8 November 2011 2 Macquarie Research Meridian Energy Fig 1 Wholesale and retail electricity price path forecasts $NZ 300.0 Wholesale electricity price 2011 ($/MWh) Retail electricity price 2011 ($/MWh) Wholesale electricity price 2010 ($/MWh) 250.0 Retail electricity price 2010 ($/MWh) 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Macquarie Research, November 2011 NZ Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) pricing forecasts: We have assumed the following NZ ETS pricing obligations for the stationary energy sector. Note, the current ETS legislation has the energy, transport and industrial sectors stepping up to a full obligation in 2013. A Government-appointed review panel recommended in September this year to slow this by phasing it in three steps in 2013, 2014 and 2015; this would effectively ease the price impact on households and businesses. Fig 2 Stationary energy NZ ETS pricing 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Proposed Surrender obligation % 50 67 83 100 100 100 100 Proposed Price cap $/NZU 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 reviewable Effective Proposed Price cap $/NZU 12.50 20.10 29.05 40.00 45.00 50.00 reviewable Macquarie price forecast - real $/NZU 12.50 20.10 20.10 20.10 20.10 20.10 20.10 Source: ETS Review 2011 Final Report, Macquarie Research, November 2011 Macquarie Securities has taken a more conservative view on the sector’s obligations capping price at $20.10/NZU (real) from 2013. This is due to uncertainty over the international carbon pricing framework from 2013 (i.e. when the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol comes to an end on 31 December 2012). Electricity Purchase to Sales Price Ratio: There are systemic differences between generation prices achieved and load prices paid due, primarily, to transmission constraints, geographical separation of generation and load centres, the ability to control generation output and the timing of load demand. These differences can be separated into a Generation Weighted Average Price (GWAP) factor and Load Weighted Average Price (LWAP) factor. We have forecast a GWAP and LWAP for Meridian Energy based on historical analysis and the outlook for transmission constraints and demand growth. This factor is applied to our benchmark wholesale price path to generation earnings and retailing costs. Note, our forecast ratio falls from 2012 as increased HVDC link capacity becomes available but then begins to rise slowly from 2015. Note, a smaller DC link tends to increase the spread of price difference between the North and South Islands (in dry and wet). 8 November 2011 3 Macquarie Research Meridian Energy Electricity Industry Act: Macquarie Securities has attempted to capture the impact of the physical and virtual asset swaps (VAS) impact contained in the Electricity Industry Act (EIA). We have modelled a three-year progressive ramp-up for the Meridian Energy-GEN 15 year VAS (effective 1 January 2011) to an ultimate volume of 450GWh. We have assumed a three-year progressive ramp-up to the 15-year Meridian Energy-MRP swap to an ultimate volume of 700GWh. The VAS contracts are assumed to have been priced at fair value. On 1 June 2011, Meridian Energy sold Tekapo A and B power stations and related assets to Genesis Power for $820.2m, resulting in a gain on sale of $174.8m. We have stepped down our TOU, SME and mass market volumes over a two-year period in proportion to Meridian Energy’s pre-EIA volume mix. Mean hydrology, operating costs, HVDC/AC charges and capital expenditure forecasts have been adjusted to reflect the sale. Our estimate of Meridian Energy’s target hedge ratio remained unchanged.
Recommended publications
  • Meridian Energy

    Meridian Energy

    NEW ZEALAND Meridian Energy Performance evaluation Meridian Energy equity valuation Macquarie Research’s discounted cashflow-based equity valuation for Meridian Energy (MER) is $6,463m (nominal WACC 8.6%, asset beta 0.60, TGR 3.0%). We have assumed, in this estimate, that MER receives $750m for its Tekapo A and B assets. Forecast financial model Inside A detailed financial model with explicit forecasts out to 2030 has been completed and is summarised in this report. Performance evaluation 2 Financial model assumptions and commentary Valuation summary 5 We have assessed the sensitivity of our equity valuation to a range of inputs. Financial model assumptions and Broadly, the sensitivities are divided into four categories: generation commentary 7 assumptions, electricity demand, financial and price path. Financial statements summary 15 We highlight and discuss a number of key model input assumptions in the report: Financial flexibility and generation Wholesale electricity price path; development 18 Electricity demand and pricing; Sensitivities 19 The New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) supply contract; Alternative valuation methodologies 20 Relative disclosure 21 MER’s generation development pipeline. Alternative valuation methodology We have assessed a comparable company equity valuation for the company of $4,942m-$6,198m. This is based on the current earnings multiples of listed comparable generator/retailers globally. This valuation provides a cross-check of the equity valuation based on our primary methodology, discounted cashflow. This valuation range lies below our primary valuation due, in part, to the recent de-rating of global renewable energy multiples (absolutely and vis-a-vis conventional generators). Relative disclosure We have assessed the disclosure levels of MER’s financial reports and presentations over the last financial period against listed and non-listed companies operating in the electricity generation and energy retailing sector in New Zealand.
  • Wind Farm Update April 2008.Pdf

    Wind Farm Update April 2008.Pdf

    April 2008 W NNDDFAARMRM ByUUPDATE Dr Julian Elder PDATE he decision on WEL Networks’ proposed wind farm at Te Uku is expected to be Tannounced by the Waikato District Council in the near future. Like you, we keenly await the outcome. I’m sending you this UPDATE to provide important background information as part of WEL’s commitment to on-going consultation with the greater Raglan community. The UPDATE forms no part of the resource consent process. The business case for the wind farm is strong and financially sound. Otherwise, we would not be risking an investment of $200 million, particularly when we are owned by the community. The Te Uku wind farm project will only go ahead if it is profitable. But we do acknowledge that there are residents with mixed feelings about the wind farm, and those who oppose it. The proposed wind farm is among the smaller of the wind farms either in operation or planned elsewhere in New Zealand. The generation of power to meet the growing demands of consumers and industry always presents a dilemma. New Zealanders are demanding renewable energy resources, yet at the same time they are demanding more supply. In the Waikato region, 55 percent more power will be needed in the next 10 years to meet the growth of both residential and business consumers. NO TO NUCLEAR POWER Coal fired power stations are being rejected and no-one supports nuclear power. Other ways to deliver power, such as bio mass, tidal and solar, are not currently realistic in commercial terms. Wind, as an energy resource, continues globally as the most widely accepted form of renewable and sustainable generation.
  • Kaimai Wind Farm Tourism and Recreation Impact Assessment

    Kaimai Wind Farm Tourism and Recreation Impact Assessment

    Kaimai Wind Farm Tourism and Recreation Impact Assessment REPORT TO VENTUS ENERGY LTD MAY 2018 Document Register Version Report date V 1 Final draft 31 August 2017 V2 GS comments 10 Oct 2017 V3 Visual assessment, cycle route 30 Nov 2017 V4 Updated visual assessment 16 February 2018 V5 Turbine update 30 May 2018 Acknowledgements This report has been prepared by TRC Tourism Ltd. Disclaimer Any representation, statement, opinion or advice, expressed or implied in this document is made in good faith but on the basis that TRC Tourism is not liable to any person for any damage or loss whatsoever which has occurred or may occur in relation to that person taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement or advice referred to in this document. K AIMAI WIND FARM TOURISM AND RECREATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT 2 Contents Contents ................................................................................................................. 3 1 Introduction and Background ........................................................................... 4 2 Existing Recreation and Tourism Setting ........................................................... 5 3 Assessment of Potential Effects ...................................................................... 12 4 Recommendations and Mitigation .................................................................. 18 5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 20 K AIMAI WIND FARM TOURISM AND RECREATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT
  • Te Uku Wind Farm, Near Raglan, Are Finding Out

    Te Uku Wind Farm, Near Raglan, Are Finding Out

    new zealand wind energy association ›› www.windenergy.org.nz Wind Energy Case Study Business and community opportunities There is more to wind energy than wind turbines and renewable energy. A new wind farm can become a catalyst for business and community renewal, as the people involved with Te Uku wind farm, near Raglan, are finding out. Earthworks at Te Uku wind farm Out towards Raglan, Meridian Energy is developing a new wind “I was just a one-man band but I had to employ staff and learn all farm at Te Uku. This high and windy site has become an important about how to do that. It was a real eye opener but I had lots of help community asset. The wind farm has added a new, positive dynamic from the managers of the construction firms Hick Bros and Spartan to this isolated farming site. Construction,” says Jim. It was a very wet winter, which did not help, but Jim is proud of Business opportunities his contribution. “We all need power at the end of the day.” An important aspect of the construction and ongoing management Local Hamilton firm Spartan Construction together with Hick of the wind farm was that the existing farm operations had to Bros from Silverdale formed Hick Spartan Joint Venture and continue with little or no disruption. That meant that stock and won the contract to supply infrastructure roading, foundations pasture had to be managed along with heavy construction, quarrying and erosion and sediment control at Te Uku. They won the and new roading. Jim Munns, a local fencer played an integral role.
  • Id Land Pty Ltd Woods Road, Truganina Expert Witness

    Id Land Pty Ltd Woods Road, Truganina Expert Witness

    ID LAND PTY LTD WOODS ROAD, TRUGANINA EXPERT WITNESS STATEMENT 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Draft prepared by Andrea Murphy 15 November 2013 Suite A3, 8 Rogers Street Port Melbourne VIC 3207 Suite 4, 46-50 Old Princes Highway Beaconsfield VIC 3807 PO Box 776 Beaconsfield VIC 3807 2 CONTENTS PAGE 1 PERSONAL DETAILS 2 QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE 3 AREA OF EXPERTISE & STATEMENT OF EXPERTISE TO MAKE THE REPORT 4 INSTRUCTIONS AND SCOPE OF REPORT 5 SUMMARY OF OPINION 6 DECLARATION 3 1 PERSONAL DETAILS My name is Andrea Murphy, and I am the Director and Principal archaeologist and heritage advisor at Tardis Enterprises Pty Ltd trading as Archaeology at Tardis, heritage advisors and archaeologists. The head office is situated at Suite 4 46-50 Old Princes Highway, Beaconsfield 3807, Victoria. 2 QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE I have a degree in Archaeology majoring in Australian Archaeology (Aboriginal) completed in 1984, and a Masters of Arts (Prelim) in Historic (non-Aboriginal) Archaeology, completed in 1991. I am a member and office bearer of the following affiliated bodies: ° Australian Society of Historic Archaeology (State Delegate) ° Australian Association of Consulting Archaeologists (Victorian Chairperson, Full Member, National Executive Committee Member) ° Australian Anthropological and Archaeological Society ° National Trust (VIC) ° Royal Victorian Historical Society ° Australia ICOMOS Full International Member ° Heritage Advisor Status (Aboriginal Affairs Victoria) I have been a practising archaeologist and heritage advisor since 1988, having worked for a number of private sector and government agencies in the capacity of an archaeologist until establishing Tardis Enterprises Pty Ltd in 1994. Tardis Enterprises Pty Ltd, which now trades as Archaeology at Tardis (AAT) is a leading consulting firm with 15 senior staff, and 10 supporting and sub-contracting personal.
  • New Zealand Journal of Environmental Law

    New Zealand Journal of Environmental Law

    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Commons@Waikato 179 Protection of Threatened Species in New Zealand Pip Wallace* and Shaun Fluker† The need to protect threatened species and facilitate their recovery to viable population levels enjoys widespread international support, but it is the domestic legal rules of individual nations that will implement international calls for protection and recovery. New Zealand purports to protect threatened species primarily with the Wildlife Act 1953, a statute whose purpose is more concerned with wildlife management than implementing a legal framework to protect threatened species. The consensus is that the Wildlife Act 1953 and other applicable legislation such as the Resource Management Act 1991 is not up to the task of protection and recovery of threatened species in New Zealand. In this article we explore how dedicated threatened species legislation in New Zealand might improve on the existing legal framework, and in particular with respect to the designation and planning on threatened species, recovery programmes and habitat protection. For an illustration of how these components may contribute to the threatened species problem we look to Canada as a nation which enacted dedicated threatened species legislation in 2002. The story thus far in Canada suggests legal rules are not a panacea for species decline, but nonetheless dedicated legislation can offer substantial benefits such as transparency and a systematic approach to species planning, better integration with resource development, and a measure of accountability in law to hold public officials to their promises on threatened species protection.
  • Application for Generation License

    Application for Generation License

    Application for Generation License Lal Lal Wind Farms Nom Co Pty Limited ABN: 37 625 768 774 Website: www.lallalwindfarms.com.au Tel: 1800 187 183 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Information on the Applicant and Nature of the application ____________ 4 1.1 Introduction __________________________________________________________ 4 1.2 Applicant Details ______________________________________________________ 5 1.3 Corporate Structure ____________________________________________________ 5 1.4 Organisational Structure ________________________________________________ 6 1.5 Project Expertise ______________________________________________________ 8 1.6 Experience of Key Personnel ____________________________________________ 11 1.7 Details of key contracts and agreements ___________________________________ 12 1.8 Planning and Environment ______________________________________________ 16 2. Essential services commisson objectives _________________________ 19 2.1 Efficiency in the industry and incentives for long term investment _____________ 19 2.2 Financial viability of the industry _______________________________________ 19 2.3 The degree of, and scope for, competition within the industry, including countervailing market power and information asymmetries ___________________________________ 20 2.4 The relevant health, safety, environmental and social legislation applying to the industry ________________________________________________________________ 20 2.5 The benefits and costs of regulation for consumers and regulated entities _______ 20 3. Information
  • Meridian Energy Annual Report for Year Ended !" June #"$" How Much Power?

    Meridian Energy Annual Report for Year Ended !" June #"$" How Much Power?

    Meridian Energy Annual Report for year ended !" June #"$" How much power? Meridian is the largest state-owned electricity generator in New Zealand, providing around 30% of New Zealand's total generation. We also retail electricity to more than 180,000 residential, rural and business customers. NAME: CalRENEW!1 NO. OF PV PANELS: %",""" CAPACITY: %MW TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !"##$%&#' # i NAME: Mt Millar3 NAME: Ross Island NO. OF TURBINES: !% NAME: Macarthur2 NO. OF TURBINES: ! CAPACITY: &"MW LOCATION: Victoria CAPACITY: $MW TOTAL GWh PRODUCED STAGE: Pre-construction design !"##$%&#' $" CAPACITY: '#"MW NAME: Mt Mercer LOCATION: Victoria STAGE: Pre-construction design CAPACITY: $!"MW Front Cover: The Ross Island wind farm and Mt Erebus from Observation Hill, Antarctica. Courtesy of George Blaisdell, Antarctica NZ Pictorial Collection. NAME: Central Wind NAME: Te Āpiti STAGE: Consented NO. OF TURBINES: ## CAPACITY: !"$MW CAPACITY: '$MW TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !"##$%&#' %"# TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !"##(%#$' %$' NAME: Ohau A NAME: Te Uku NO. OF GENERATORS: & STAGE: Under construction CAPACITY: ")&MW CAPACITY: )&MW NAME: West Wind TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !,!%& !"##$%&#' NO. OF TURBINES: )" NAME: Mill Creek TOTAL GWh PRODUCED '(% CAPACITY: !&%MW !"##(%#$' STAGE: Environment Court appeal TOTAL GWh PRODUCED &'* CAPACITY: )*MW !"##$%&#' TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !"##(%#$' %( NAME: Ohau B NAME: Mokihinui NO. OF GENERATORS: & STAGE: Environment Court appeal CAPACITY: "!"MW CAPACITY: (#MW NAME: Tekapo A TOTAL GWh PRODUCED '&( !"##$%&#' NO. OF GENERATORS: ! ii TOTAL GWh PRODUCED iii CAPACITY: !"##(%#$' (%& "#MW Brooklyn TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !"##$%&#' !#" TOTAL GWh PRODUCED Wellington !"##(%#$' !"& NAME: Ohau C NO. OF GENERATORS: & CAPACITY: "!"MW NAME: Hurunui Wind TOTAL GWh PRODUCED STAGE: Consultation NAME: Tekapo B !"##$%&#' '&$ CAPACITY: *(MW NO. OF GENERATORS: " TOTAL GWh PRODUCED ("( !"##(%#$' Christchurch CAPACITY: !)$MW TOTAL GWh PRODUCED !"##$%&#' (!* TOTAL GWh PRODUCED (%% NAME: Benmore !"##(%#$' Twizel NAME: Hunter Downs Irrigation NO.
  • Meridian Energy to Partner with AGL in Developing Southern

    Meridian Energy to Partner with AGL in Developing Southern

    Meridian Energy to partner with AGL in developing Southern Hemisphere’s largest wind farm For immediate release: New Zealand's largest renewable electricity generator, Meridian, and Australia's largest renewable electricity generator AGL today announced the establishment of a joint venture to build what will be the southern hemisphere's biggest wind farm. The project is the 420 MW Macarthur wind farm in southwest Victoria. The final build cost will be around A$1 billion and is due for completion in 2013. Meridian’s 50 percent investment share in the project will be made through a combination of equity and project finance which will be sourced by the joint venture partners. Meridian chief executive Tim Lusk said today the investment was consistent with Meridian’s Australian wind investment strategy, which earlier this year saw the company acquire the 70 MW Mt Millar wind farm in South Australia. “The Macarthur project is a great opportunity to facilitate our growth ambitions in Australia. The project offers long term, reliable generation revenues which will complement the rest of Meridian’s developing Australian wind portfolio. The electricity purchase contracts have been structured in a way that the joint venture does not take market price or electricity production volume risk.” Mr Lusk said Macarthur cements a long term relationship between Meridian and AGL. “This joint venture between the largest renewable developers in New Zealand and Australia, each bringing complementary skill sets to the project, gives us great confidence that it will be delivered successfully. The good cultural fit evident between the parties creates ongoing opportunities for joint development.” As well as the Macarthur project and the Mt Millar wind farm, Meridian has a number of other high quality wind development sites in Australia.
  • Referral of Proposed Action

    Referral of Proposed Action

    Referral of proposed action Project title: Stockyard Hill Wind Farm and Related Projects 1 Summary of proposed action 1.1 Short description Stockyard Hill Wind Farm Pty Ltd (SHWFPL) (a subsidiary of Origin Energy) is developing a wind farm in south-west Victoria, known as the Stockyard Hill Wind Farm (SHWF). The SHWF Wind Energy Facility (WEF) involves the installation of a maximum of 149 turbines and associated on-site infrastructure (including substations, internal overhead powerlines, cabling and access tracks). The WEF site is made up of freehold agricultural land holdings totalling approximately 109.5 km². SHWF has entered into commercial agreements with 45 landholders to host the wind farm and associated infrastructure. Shown on the Amended Wind Energy Facility Indicative Layout Plans in Attachment B. The related external overhead powerlines will enable the delivery of renewable energy from the Wind Energy Facility (WEF) to the national electricity grid. Proposed to extend approximately 75km (in total length) between the WEF and a terminal station (south of Lismore), the 132kV overhead powerlines will cross land in the Shire of Pyrenees and Shire of Corangamite in Victoria. The related terminal station will enable the delivery of renewable energy from the Wind Energy Facility (WEF) to the national electricity grid. The terminal station will be located to the south of Lismore and adjacent the existing Moorabool to Heywood double circuit 500kV transmission line. The terminal station project includes: the construction and operation of the terminal station; and the upgrade of the intersection of Camperdown-Lismore Road and Lower Darlington Road. The related quarry will provide construction materials to support the development of the Wind Energy Facility (WEF) and associated infrastructure.
  • Gwec | Global Wind Report

    Gwec | Global Wind Report

    GLOBAL WIND REPORT Annual market update 2010 Foreword 2010 was a tough year for our industry, and although We are still waiting for a resolution to the global debate on cumulative market growth was still a healthy 24.1 %, the climate change and we are still waiting for any signs of a annual market decreased for the first time in about two clear pathway towards a global price on carbon. If the pace decades. The medium term consequences of the financial of the international climate negotiations during 2010 is any crisis and the economic slowdown finally took their toll, indication, we are going to have to continue to wait for and very low orders in OECD countries at the end of 2008 some time. Hopes are higher for COP17 in Durban this year and the beginning of 2009 made themselves felt in the than they were for Cancun, but few observers expect final 2010 installation totals, particularly in the United States. resolutions to the fundamental unresolved issues. Having said that, 38.3 GW of new wind power capacity was We expect that by the time this report is printed global added around the world last year, and for the first time the installed capacity will have reached 200 GW. We estimate majority of that new capacity was in developing countries that this will double again within three to four years, and emerging economies; driven mainly by the booming keeping open the option to reach GWEC’s aspirational goal wind sectors in China and India, but also with strong of 1,000 GW of installed capacity by 2020.
  • Valuation Report 2010

    Valuation Report 2010

    1 Meridian Energy EQUITY RESEARCH – New Zealand ANALYST FIRST NZ CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED IS A NZX FIRM Jason Lindsay +64 4 496 5338 [email protected] 29 October 2010 A valuation perspective PG 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Recent Performance .................................................................................................................................................................................3 Earnings Outlook ......................................................................................................................................................................................3 Base Case Valuation .................................................................................................................................................................................3 Key Assumptions.......................................................................................................................................................................................3 Sensitivity Analysis....................................................................................................................................................................................3