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Think BRIC! Key Considerations for Investors Targeting the Power Sectors of the World’S Largest Emerging Economies

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Think BRIC! Key Considerations for Investors Targeting the Power Sectors of the World’S Largest Emerging Economies ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES Think BRIC! Key considerations for investors targeting the power sectors of the world’s largest emerging economies INDIA ADVISORY © 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Contents 3 Contents Contents 3 Foreword 4 Introduction & Methodology 5 Executive Summary 6 1. India: Country in Figures 9 2. Population 10 3. Economy 12 4. Electricity Market 16 4.1. Electricity demand 17 4.2. Electricity supply 23 4.3. Ownership and investments in the Indian power industry 29 4.4. Main determining factors in the development 32 of the electricity industry 5. Investment Opportunities 39 Acronyms 40 KPMG’s ENR Practice Overview 41 KPMG’s ”Think BRIC! Key considerations for investors targeting 45 the power sectors of the world’s largest emerging economies“ publication series Other KPMG Thought Leadership 46 © 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 4 Foreword Foreword Energy is a global industry, vital to In this publication we have attempted economic development and as such has to turn market data into meaningful strong political and social implications. information and include top-level The world’s largest emerging executives` perspectives on the economies, known in shorthand as the evolution of the Indian power sector BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India from political, socio-economical, and China – are in the top 10 global technical, environmental and legal energy consumers and are home to aspects. They offer scenarios they 40 percent of the world’s population. consider adequate to meet the supply-demand balance challenge Péter Kiss The strong correlation between in the short-, middle-, and long term. Partner, KPMG Global Head economic growth, welfare and energy of Power and Utilities use means that future demand levels, Major questions raised during this security of supply, energy mixes, research included how necessary production levels and general market investments in generation, transmission dynamics will increasingly move to the and distribution will be financed in fore as key issues. terms of state support, privatization and foreign direct investments, how Electricity is by nature a unique product. regulation will support the emerging It is indispensable and it has no trends and how global financial turmoil substitute. It is something we realize will affect the pace of development. the importance of only when we experience a shortage. It is just enough I trust that the contents of this report to recall the biggest blackout in U.S. will offer you deep insights into these history in 2003 which struck parts of the unique, emerging energy industry Northeast, Midwest and even Canada, markets. knocking out power to millions of Americans. This publication is a part of a series of reports titled “Think BRIC! Key considerations for investors targeting the power sectors of the world’s largest emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China” – aiming to highlight major trends and challenges shaping the evolution of these countries’ power sectors over the course of the next decade in light of the global economic crisis. © 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Introduction & Methodology 5 Introduction & Methodology This publication has been compiled by During the survey period of March–May In India, the following listed KPMG’s Global Power & Utilities 2009, Ipsos’ senior qualitative companies and their representatives Knowledge & Resource Center, based researchers conducted semi-structured contributed to our survey: in Budapest, Hungary as the Indian personal interviews (based on a country report of the ”Think BRIC! questionnaire prepared by KPMG) Segment Company Key considerations for investors with top-level executives considered Major 1. NTPC targeting the power sectors of to be key stakeholders in the country’s Market the world’s largest emerging power sector. The target groups of the Participants 2. Powerlinks economies“ publication series. interviews comprised: Transmission Limited KPMG conducted comprehensive 1. Major market participants: key 3. Tata Power research both on- and off-site in India players of the electricity industry and our in-depth analysis characterizes bearing a dominant market position 4. AES Corp. the development of the electricity (both state-owned and privately held 5. Oil and Natural Gas industry. integrated electricity companies, TSOs, electricity traders) Regulatory 6. Planning This report is partly based on a survey Authorities Commission conducted by Ipsos, an independent 2. Regulatory authorities: competent 7. Nuclear Power international market research company, ministries, regulatory bodies Corporation of assigned by KPMG to interview key India decision makers of the Indian power 3. Financial institutions: domestic and World 8. WEC sector. Based on these interviews, international investment banks with Energy professional databases, evaluations and dominant market share Council KPMG forecasts, KPMG’s Global Power Financial 9. SBI & Utilities Knowledge and Resource 4. WEC – World Energy Council Institutions Center compiled predictions for the 10. IDFC development of the Indian power 5. Technological suppliers, 11. World Bank sector up to 2020. equipment manufacturers 12. ICICI The sample consisted of 17 prominent 13. Axis Bank experts working throughout the power sector, and whom KPMG would like to Technology 14. ABB Group thank again for the wealth of valuable Suppliers 15. ALSTOM information they shared for this report. 16. Andritz 17. EMCO © 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 6 Executive Summary Executive Summary Incredible India! says the slogan of the But such relatively low base figures In 2005 New Delhi announced an Indian Tourist Board in its attempt to lure beg the question as to why? Everyone ambitious plan for every village to have a the foreign visitor to sample the accepts that India, as a developing grid connection by the end of 2007 and for country’s vast array of sights, smells country, inevitably lags behind the west every household to be supplied by 2012. and sounds; but Incredible India! could in key economic indicators, particularly apply to the electricity sector as well, for in view of its huge rural population. But concerns that these plans were its potential to lure foreign investment, flawed began to circulate almost as know-how and equipment to south Asia But India has boasted of economic soon as they were released. For what is equally vast. reform for almost two decades, turning is available theoretically is often not so its back on the socialist model so in practice. Just because a village is India’s population, now around 1.1 billion, beloved by the first generation of connected to the network does not is growing fast, and is expected to post-independence leaders, so that mean it is supplied continuously surpass that of China soon after 2020 – market forces might boost progress. – and despite the progress made, making it the largest in the world. In addition, India has the lowest one respondent of KPMG`s survey Its economy is also expanding, growing electricity consumption per capita estimated that at least 500 million at around 10 percent annually from of the four BRIC countries – so why are Indians still have no access to electricity. 2000 to 2008, and despite a current the electricity development indicators dip due to the global crisis, the pace not more optimistic? What though, of those consumers is expected to be over 9 percent for who are connected? Certainly those most of the next decade. As this KPMG study reveals, while households that are connected have the state and federal governments seen increasing demand; residential All of this bodes well for the electricity have initiated reforms, social programs sector consumption rose from 70TWh sector; consumption, currently at some and legislation designed to supply in 2000 to 100TWh in 2006, almost 20 600TWh annually, is set to double by electricity to all consumer groups percent of the total. Some estimates 2020 – by when it will have surpassed across the country, the many put growth in this sector at between Russian levels. To supply this extra conservative elements, systemic 15–20 percent in the coming decade. electricity, total generating capacity weaknesses and contradictions should jump by 90 GW, to 241GW, with within India frequently combine Industry, which accounted for 210TWh an increased emphasis to stifle progress. of electricity in 2006 – 40 percent of on nuclear, clean coal and renewables, consumed – is likewise expected to including solar and small-hydro. What then, of the position today, expand, with some market observers and what progress can be expected predicting up to 30 percent growth in In line with this, per capita electricity realistically in the next decade? The the next five years, particularly if the consumption, currently at just 520kWh advances made in the recent past can power-dependent steel, coal and annually, is expected to rise to 840kWh not be denied. A rural electrification cement industries perform well. by 2020. Yet, though in relative terms program in the 1980s brought electricity this is an impressive leap of 60 percent, to 200,000 villages for the first time. Agriculture is a special sector, politically the projected figure, if realized, is still Generation capacity hit 150GW in 2006, sensitive in the government’s eyes, as only about one quarter of the global a 40 percent increase on the 2000 figure, it provides jobs for the rural and largely average, meaning these predictions after reforms in 2003 initiated a much- impoverished masses, and farmers would not appear overly optimistic. needed restructuring of the power sector.
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