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The West's Ukraine Crisis a Recipe for Global Disaster

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The West's Ukraine Crisis a Recipe for Global Disaster Specia l editioN of th e atla Ntic tim eS November 2014 Berlin, Germany In this issue Ukraine unrest 2 Putin’s annexation of Crimea and his support for the East- Lame duck? ern rebels may have pushed Ukraine more decisively to Aggressive bear? the West than ever before. But the pro-Western image of Assertive dragon? Ukraine's new president will not be enough to overcome the divisions in the country and pages 3-6 a hard-hit economy, argues Klaus Müller. Russian revisionism 3 After almost a quarter of a century of democracy, Russia is reverting to a totalitarian state, writes Aleksandr Golts. He believes Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy is plunging the world into a new Cold War. A right-wing threat 4 Russia has been riding a wave of patriotic fervor. Vladi- mir Putin thought he could ablo Martinez Monsivais Martinez ablo control it. But now the ultra- p right nationalists are breath- hoto/ p ing down his neck. Michael ap Thumann asks whether the Kremlin leader can squeeze the right-wing genie back into the bottle. alliance/ picture Balancing act 5 Is conflict inherent in US-China relations? Can Beijing’s rise be accomplished peacefully? Theo The West’s A recipe for Sommer looks to the Asia- Pacific, site of the world’s most perilous flashpoints. Non-combatants 9 Ukraine crisis global disaster In the post-ISAF era in Afghanistan, the German mili- Russia’s revisionism marks a post-Cold War The Ukraine conflict is a challenge not just tary will keep its last base near paradigm shift | By Michael Rühle for Europe | By Wolfgang Ischinger the northern city of Mazar-i- Sharif. But as Eric Chauvistré he crisis in Ukraine, which cul- – which will require them to make good housands of miles away from the Again, imagine a world in which every discovered when he paid a minated in Russia’s annexation on their Wales Summit pledge to increase Pacific, Russia has annexed one country demanded that right. It is a recipe visit to Camp Marmal, the of Crimea, marked a watershed defense expenditures over time. region of Ukraine, and is in the for global disaster: so many states have Bundeswehr is there to consult, in Europe’s post-Cold War his- Implementing the RAP also means deal- process of destabilizing another minorities outside their own borders. not to fight. Ttory. In the course of a few weeks Russia Tone. Should Asians really care? ing with the challenge of “hybrid threats”. Fourth, the Russian military approach Think small 10 emerged as a revisionist power, changing To de-stabilize Ukraine, Russia combined In East Asia, thousands of miles away in eastern Ukraine – the so-called “hybrid borders by a mixture of armed force and military, paramilitary, cyber, economic and from Berlin, China, Japan and others are warfare," combining irregular forces, Europe won’t be getting its political intimidation in order to deny a strategic communications tools. While this involved in continuing disputes over unin- intense propaganda, and other means, while electricity from the desert neighbouring country the choice to deter- form of “hybrid warfare” may only succeed habited rocks, small islands, and remote officially denying any military involvement any time soon. The Desertec mine its own alignments. The assumption against states that are internally fragile and borders. Why should Germans, why should at all – may well be the first rigorous appli- project’s commercial backers that Russia had accepted certain ground divided, it introduces sufficient ambigu- Europeans be concerned? cation of undeclared war with 21st century are bailing on the gigantic solar rules of behavior among European states ity to make NATO’s strategic assessment And halfway between Berlin and the technology. There is no reason to believe power stations in North Africa. turned out to be wrong. and decision-making difficult, while at the Pacific, in the Middle East, chaos reigns. that others are not intensely studying and Wolfgang Mulke explains why Many commentators were quick to argue same time marginalizing elements of the Why must we not look the other way? copying this new hybrid approach. the foundation is now focusing that the return of tensions between Russia full spectrum of NATO’s defensive capa- Questions like these stem from a time in Fifth, the Ukraine conflict has fur- on smaller projects. and the West was giving NATO a new bilities. This is of particular concern to the which security challenges were and could ther paralyzed the UN Security Council, sense of purpose. However, such a view Baltic nations, given their large Russian be limited regionally. Just as disputes in the whose authority is already weakened. The Oil woes 11 misses the mark. The crisis may have minorities. NATO must therefore exam- Pacific can have profound consequences de gradation of our collective decision-mak- Global demand for oil is grow- indeed brought ine how best to for Europe, the ing capacity is ing, but the price is falling. home to many respond to such Ukraine conflict extremely wor- Hannes Koch on how the low the continuing The crisis threats, including is not just a chal- So many risome. In fact, cost of crude is hampering need for a col- will put through working lenge for Europe. states have if this stalemate the realignment of European lective defense with other insti- It has enormous continues, Ger- energy policy. framework; yet Alliance tutions. global impli- minorities outside many and India it also confronts From the outset cations, some might one day Up with TTIP 12 NATO with a solidarity of the Ukraine of which have their own become perma- Elmar Brok supports the trans- series of politi- crisis Allies been underesti- nent members of atlantic trade agreement. The cal and military to the test. refrained from mated outside of borders. a Security Coun- CDU Member of the European challenges that creating irrevers- Europe. cil that risks Parliament argues that the price will put Alliance solidarity to the test and ible facts in their relationship to Russia. First, if such a breakdown of order is becoming irrelevant. of no deal is too high – allowing require new resources if these challenges Hence, while cooperation with Russia was possible in Europe, which has the highest Sixth, the Ukraine conflict is bad news for China to set global standards are to be effectively met. suspended, the NATO-Russia Council density of treaties and institutions, other nuclear non-proliferation. In 1994, in the instead of the US and Europe. The Wales Summit in early September did remains open. At the same time, while regions are not likely to be more immune Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine received indeed show a remarkable degree of Allied the RAP will enhance NATO’s military to serious and deadly conflict. We believed security guarantees in exchange for giving Data theft 14 unity: While avoiding alarmist rhetoric, presence in Central and Eastern Europe, that the combination of institutions such up the nuclear arsenal on its territory. If the Alliance agreed the “Readiness Action it will remain within the confines of the as the European Union, NATO, the OSCE, states end up being punished for relinquish- It has long been considered a Plan” (RAP) to enhance the military pro- NATO-Russia Founding Act. And NATO’s and numerous partnership agreements with ing their weapons of mass destruction, sign of weakness to talk about tection of NATO’s easternmost members. response to the dramatic increase of Rus- Russia would ensure peace and stabil- hardly any state will want to follow the one’s own vulnerability. But The RAP foresees increasing the readiness sian air activities across Europe as well as ity, after centuries of war and conflict in Ukrainian example. at the Cyber Security Summit, level of NATO’s reaction forces, as well as Europe. But they did not. That should Deutsche Telekom CEO to Moscow’s militaristic rhetoric has been It should be clear, then, that the Ukraine pre-deploying equipment and holding more make us think twice about the quality of Timotheus Hoettges admitted low-key. As long as there is hope that Russia conflict and its consequences reverberate far his company faces around one exercises in Central and Eastern Europe. could revert to a less confrontational stance, governance, stability, and security struc- beyond Europe’s borders – and that there- million attacks on its network The RAP does not foresee the permanent NATO wants to keep the doors open. If the tures in other parts of the world. fore countries all over the world, especially a day. Can transatlantic treaties stationing of substantial combat forces in changes in Russian policy were just a short- Second, the conflict in Ukraine appears in Asia, need to pay close attention. stop data theft, hackers and Central and Eastern Europe. In this respect, term tactical shift, and Russia’s behavior to send the terrible message that policies In a different way, the same is true for spies? NATO remains in line with the 1997 does not become even more confrontational, of aggression and annexation can turn the crisis that is engulfing a big part of NATO-Russia Founding Act, in which it is safe to assume that many Allies will out to be successful even in today’s world. the Middle East. The hope triggered by the Allies had ruled out such deployments. soon seek to re-establish the cooperative This is not just bad news in terms of fun- the Arab revolutions has been reversed. The RAP is an important signal to both relationship they deem so important. damental tenets of international law. It is Many states are too weak to control their Publisher: Detlef W.
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