Specia l Edition of Th e Atla ntic Tim es

November 2014 Berlin, Germany

In this issue

Ukraine unrest 2 Putin’s annexation of Crimea and his support for the East- Lame duck? ern rebels may have pushed Ukraine more decisively to Aggressive bear? the West than ever before. But the pro-Western image of Assertive dragon? Ukraine's new president will not be enough to overcome the divisions in the country and pages 3-6 a hard-hit economy, argues Klaus Müller.

Russian revisionism 3 After almost a quarter of a century of democracy, Russia is reverting to a totalitarian state, writes Aleksandr Golts. He believes Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy is plunging the world into a new Cold War.

A right-wing threat 4 Russia has been riding a wave of patriotic fervor. Vladi- mir Putin thought he could

control it. But now the ultra- Monsivais Martinez ablo right nationalists are breath- ing down his neck. Michael Thumann asks whether the Kremlin leader can squeeze the right-wing genie back into the bottle. P alliance/ AP P hoto/ picture

Balancing act 5 Is conflict inherent in US-China relations? Can Beijing’s rise be accomplished peacefully? Theo The West’s A recipe for Sommer looks to the Asia- Pacific, site of the world’s most perilous flashpoints. Non-combatants 9 Ukraine crisis global disaster In the post-ISAF era in Afghanistan, the German mili- Russia’s revisionism marks a post-Cold War The Ukraine conflict is a challenge not just tary will keep its last base near paradigm shift | By Michael Rühle for Europe | By Wolfgang Ischinger the northern city of Mazar-i- Sharif. But as Eric Chauvistré he crisis in Ukraine, which cul- – which will require them to make good housands of miles away from the Again, imagine a world in which every discovered when he paid a minated in Russia’s annexation on their Wales Summit pledge to increase Pacific, Russia has annexed one country demanded that right. It is a recipe visit to Camp Marmal, the of Crimea, marked a watershed defense expenditures over time. region of Ukraine, and is in the for global disaster: so many states have Bundeswehr is there to consult, in Europe’s post-Cold War his- Implementing the RAP also means deal- process of destabilizing another minorities outside their own borders. not to fight. tory.T In the course of a few weeks Russia one.T Should Asians really care? ing with the challenge of “hybrid threats”. Fourth, the Russian military approach Think small 10 emerged as a revisionist power, changing To de-stabilize Ukraine, Russia combined In East Asia, thousands of miles away in eastern Ukraine – the so-called “hybrid borders by a mixture of armed force and military, paramilitary, cyber, economic and from Berlin, China, Japan and others are warfare," combining irregular forces, Europe won’t be getting its political intimidation in order to deny a strategic communications tools. While this involved in continuing disputes over unin- intense propaganda, and other means, while electricity from the desert neighbouring country the choice to deter- form of “hybrid warfare” may only succeed habited rocks, small islands, and remote officially denying any military involvement any time soon. The Desertec mine its own alignments. The assumption against states that are internally fragile and borders. Why should Germans, why should at all – may well be the first rigorous appli- project’s commercial backers that Russia had accepted certain ground divided, it introduces sufficient ambigu- Europeans be concerned? cation of undeclared war with 21st century are bailing on the gigantic solar rules of behavior among European states ity to make NATO’s strategic assessment And halfway between Berlin and the technology. There is no reason to believe power stations in North Africa. turned out to be wrong. and decision-making difficult, while at the Pacific, in the Middle East, chaos reigns. that others are not intensely studying and Wolfgang Mulke explains why Many commentators were quick to argue same time marginalizing elements of the Why must we not look the other way? copying this new hybrid approach. the foundation is now focusing that the return of tensions between Russia full spectrum of NATO’s defensive capa- Questions like these stem from a time in Fifth, the Ukraine conflict has fur- on smaller projects. and the West was giving NATO a new bilities. This is of particular concern to the which security challenges were and could ther paralyzed the UN Security Council, sense of purpose. However, such a view Baltic nations, given their large Russian be limited regionally. Just as disputes in the whose authority is already weakened. The Oil woes 11 misses the mark. The crisis may have minorities. NATO must therefore exam- Pacific can have profound consequences de­gradation of our collective decision-mak- Global demand for oil is grow- indeed brought ine how best to for Europe, the ing capacity is ing, but the price is falling. home to many respond to such Ukraine conflict extremely wor- Hannes Koch on how the low the continuing The crisis threats, including is not just a chal- So many risome. In fact, cost of crude is hampering need for a col- will put through working lenge for Europe. states have if this stalemate the realignment of European lective defense with other insti- It has enormous continues, Ger- energy policy. framework; yet Alliance tutions. global impli- minorities outside many and India it also confronts From the outset cations, some might one day Up with TTIP 12 NATO with a solidarity of the Ukraine of which have their own become perma- Elmar Brok supports the trans- series of politi- crisis Allies been underesti- nent members of atlantic trade agreement. The cal and military to the test. refrained from mated outside of borders. a Security Coun- CDU Member of the European challenges that creating irrevers- Europe. cil that risks Parliament argues that the price will put Alliance solidarity to the test and ible facts in their relationship to Russia. First, if such a breakdown of order is becoming irrelevant. of no deal is too high – allowing require new resources if these challenges Hence, while cooperation with Russia was possible in Europe, which has the highest Sixth, the Ukraine conflict is bad news for China to set global standards are to be effectively met. suspended, the NATO-Russia Council density of treaties and institutions, other nuclear non-proliferation. In 1994, in the instead of the US and Europe. The Wales Summit in early September did remains open. At the same time, while regions are not likely to be more immune Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine received indeed show a remarkable degree of Allied the RAP will enhance NATO’s military to serious and deadly conflict. We believed security guarantees in exchange for giving Data theft 14 unity: While avoiding alarmist rhetoric, presence in Central and Eastern Europe, that the combination of institutions such up the nuclear arsenal on its territory. If the Alliance agreed the “Readiness Action it will remain within the confines of the as the European Union, NATO, the OSCE, states end up being punished for relinquish- It has long been considered a Plan” (RAP) to enhance the military pro- NATO-Russia Founding Act. And NATO’s and numerous partnership agreements with ing their weapons of mass destruction, sign of weakness to talk about tection of NATO’s easternmost members. response to the dramatic increase of Rus- Russia would ensure peace and stabil- hardly any state will want to follow the one’s own vulnerability. But The RAP foresees increasing the readiness sian air activities across Europe as well as ity, after centuries of war and conflict in Ukrainian example. at the Cyber Security Summit, level of NATO’s reaction forces, as well as Europe. But they did not. That should Deutsche Telekom CEO to Moscow’s militaristic rhetoric has been It should be clear, then, that the Ukraine pre-deploying equipment and holding more make us think twice about the quality of Timotheus Hoettges admitted low-key. As long as there is hope that Russia conflict and its consequences reverberate far his company faces around one exercises in Central and Eastern Europe. could revert to a less confrontational stance, governance, stability, and security struc- beyond Europe’s borders – and that there- million attacks on its network The RAP does not foresee the permanent NATO wants to keep the doors open. If the tures in other parts of the world. fore countries all over the world, especially a day. Can transatlantic treaties stationing of substantial combat forces in changes in Russian policy were just a short- Second, the conflict in Ukraine appears in Asia, need to pay close attention. stop data theft, hackers and Central and Eastern Europe. In this respect, term tactical shift, and Russia’s behavior to send the terrible message that policies In a different way, the same is true for spies? NATO remains in line with the 1997 does not become even more confrontational, of aggression and annexation can turn the crisis that is engulfing a big part of NATO-Russia Founding Act, in which it is safe to assume that many Allies will out to be successful even in today’s world. the Middle East. The hope triggered by the Allies had ruled out such deployments. soon seek to re-establish the cooperative This is not just bad news in terms of fun- the Arab revolutions has been reversed. The RAP is an important signal to both relationship they deem so important. damental tenets of international law. It is Many states are too weak to control their Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz Executive Editor: Theo Sommer NATO Allies and Russia. Its rapid imple- However, if the Ukraine crisis were to especially dangerous for Asia. If it is so own territory. Malicious and criminal non- Times Media GmbH mentation will thus be crucial, all the more reflect a profound and lasting re-orien- easy to annex a region that indisputably state actors, most prominently the so-called Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 10963 Berlin, Germany so as more agile forces may also be needed tation of Moscow’s approach vis-à-vis used to be part of a different country – Islamic State, are on the rise. And jihadist www.times-media.de | [email protected] for other contingencies. However, the chal- the West, NATO would have to prepare Ukraine’s Crimea –, what might this mean groups are looking to expand further, both Phone +49 30-2150-5400 Fax +49 30-2150-5447 lenges are considerable. Keeping forces on for living with a difficult Russia for the in the Asia-Pacific where many borders to the US and Europe and to India and to ISSN 2191-6462 high readiness is something only the larger foreseeable future. Most Russia-watchers are in dispute, particularly between China Southeast Asia. Press deadline: November 17, 2014 nations can do, and only at considerable come down on the latter option. Russia’s and its neighbors? Clearly, this crisis is at least in part cost. By the same token, the days when “patriotic awakening” – like so many Third, the so-called Putin doctrine rep- the West’s fault. The Iraq War did open The Security NATO was regularly exercising large-scale things in Russia orchestrated from the top resents a challenge to the international a pandora’s box. In Syria, on the other Times is also reinforcements are long gone. In short, in down – has resulted in soaring approval order – not just in Europe. The Russian hand, we are now paying for the inactivity order to implement the RAP, NATO will ratings for President Putin. president is reserving the right for Moscow of the international community in dealing available have to re-learn certain skills and re-acquire Given Russia’s economic and social to intervene abroad to protect Russian- with the civil war after 2011. At the time, online. certain capabilities that over the past 20 decline, now hastened by falling oil speaking populations – based on Moscow’s many decision-makers advocating Western www.times-media.de years had not been in demand. Above all, estimation of whether, when, and how they Allies will have to bear additional costs continued on page 2 need protection. continued on page 3 2 November 2014

Shoes for the soldiers: Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (center) inspects military uniforms at a base in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, Oct. 4, 2014.

picture alliance/AP Images/Mykola Lazarenko estern observers The Maidan activists who greeted the out- entered the transitional gov- come of the elec- ernment could not take on this tions to the Ukrai- A nation of clans political machine. Within a few nianW Parliament on Oct. 26 with months, nearly all quit their posts. relief. In a ballot seen overall as Tetiana Chornovol, who started fair and free, the parties com- Ukraine’s new government must overcome regional divisions | By Klaus Müller as anti-corruption officer, was too monly termed pro-European were weak to penetrate the corrupt victorious. former President Leonid Kuchma, chenko and his Prime Minister very same problems on which the Heavily criticized by nation- arrangements of the political elite. Taken together the three lead- the drive towards Euro-Atlantic Yulia Tymoshenko fell apart. Orange Revolution ran aground. alist parties, military leaders Several ministers and the head ing parties, President Petro integration, underlined by sev- Yushenko’s presidency was cap- A first matter of concern is the and Tymoshenko as bowing to of the central bank had to leave Poroshenko’s bloc, Arseniy eral agreements with the EU tured by the real power brokers: party structure of the country, Moscow, Poroshenko’s conces- since they had no powerful spon- Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front and and NATO, intersected with an the oligarchic clans which had on which governability and the sions, though appreciated in sors or because the newly elected Andriy Sadoviy’s Self Reliance, equally strong preference to main- taken over the soviet era indus- quality of Ukrainian democracy Western capitals, played into the president, himself a winner in the collected 55 percent of the vote. tain close relations with Russia. tries in the east via shady priva- will depend to a large degree. As hands of the People’s Front on oligarchic competition, preferred Though considerably reduced, As late as November 2013, tization deals and had placed the voting pattern indicates, the election day. Yatseniuk’s party, his own personnel. Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland survey data confirmed that 37 their own parties and deputies in parliamentary elections confirmed with the far-right commander of In the new parliament, civil attracted another 5.7 percent, percent of those questioned would parliament and high government persistent regional divisions of the the Maidan militia on its list, society representatives who run while the Radical Party of Oleh like to join the EU as soon as posts. country. appealed more to a public attuned on several party lists, will come up Lyashko jumped from the fringe possible while a third preferred When Tymoshenko tried to If the voter turnout is factored to civil war conditions by uninter- against oligarchs and oligarch’s to 7.5 percent. deeper links with Russia. All this roll back the privatizations of the in, a more complicated constel- rupted media coverage. Unfor- deputies who polled as indepen- Whatever coalition emerges has changed: in the course of 1990s, Yushchenko defended the lation comes into view. In the tunately, Yatseniuk’s militarized dent candidates in several of the from these five parties, the Oppo- the year, under the impression of class of new owners and replaced western region around Lviv, 70 rhetoric serves to postpone even 198 single-mandate majoritarian sition bloc, recruited mainly from Moscow’s aggression in the east- her in late 2005 with Yuriy Yekh- percent went to the polls, in cen- further the prospect of a recon- constituencies. the disintegrated Party of Regions ern part of their country, a wide anourov, the very person who tral Kiev it was 56 percent, but ciled society. However, the imminent chal- of the ousted President Victor majority of Ukrainians switched had supervised the transfer of in eastern Ukraine only about 40 Nor has the second challenge, lenge for Ukraine’s future is wait- Yanukovich, has lost any chance to the western vector – making state property into the hands of percent cast their ballots, while countering the oligarchic subver- ing outside parliament. The first to exert power, with less than Vladmir Putin the loser of the the oligarchs. in Donetsk and Lugansk it was sion of democracy, been met. On pro-Western revolution of 2004 10 percent of the vote. Its pos- October elections. Unable to create a new societal less than a third of the electorate. the contrary, in the absence of a fizzled out in an environment sible ally, the Communist Party Nevertheless, it may be too consensus, Yushchenko promoted If nearly two million voters in professional army prepared to of high inflation and economic of Ukraine, did not even pass the early to celebrate the arithmetic an integral Ukrainian nationalism, the latter region, who tradition- fight an internal war, some oli- breakdown in 2009. electoral threshold. of these elections as a historical rewriting history and rehabilitat- ally would have voted for the garchs supplied their own militias Yanukovych’s presidency Very calming to the Western turning point for Ukraine. Hopes ing dubious inter-war heroes such Party of Regions did not have the to a hastily called up National eroded because of economic stag- public, the two parties of the for a better future mingle with as the fascist Stepan Bandera. opportunity to do so, they will Guard. nation since 2012. For 2014, the radical right, Svoboda and Right memories of the failed ‘Orange This satisfied his west Ukrainian nevertheless not disappear from After the oligarch faction IMF estimates the GDP losses at Sector, also failed to enter par- Revolution’. constituency but antagonized the the map. They are simply not rep- behind the Yanukovich Regime, 6.5 percent and makes a stabi- liament. The five pro-western In 2004 mass protests against eastern citizens. resented by the fragmented, polar- the Donbas clan around Rinat lization in 2015 dependent on parties, acting together and with massive electoral fraud during the Mired in corruption affairs, ized and volatile party system of Akhmetov, had lost out, the rival geopolitical détente. Returning the help from some independent presidential election enforced a unable to revive the economy and Ukraine. clan headed by Ihor Kolomoisky to a more conciliatory tone in candidates, could even command second run-off which was won by to live up to the promised Euro- How polarized the party took over. Installed by Porosh- the internal and external debate a constitutional majority. the first emphatically Western can- pean standards of social life, econ- system actually is and how this enko in March 2014 as regional seems not only a question of Ironically enough, Putin’s didate Viktor Yushchenko. The omy and politics, the ‘orange soap imposes tensions on society, governors of Dnipropetrovsk and political viability of the new gov- annexation of Crimea and his presence of European Commis- opera’, as the Economist called it, was made evident by the disap- Donetsk, Kolomoisky and fellow ernment but also of economic support for the Eastern rebels sioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner and paved the way for the comeback pointing election results for the oligarch Serhij Taruta raised sev- prudence. may have pushed Ukraine more US Secretary of State Colin Powell of Yanukovich in 2010. Poroshenko bloc. On Sept. 16, eral battalions to fight the pro- decisively to the West than ever at the inauguration ceremony Against this background, the parliament passed the president’s Russian insurgents. Posing with n before. Until last year, Yanu- was intended to signal the future pro-Western image of the new proposal to find a compromise nationalist politicians like Dmytro kovych referred to the formula course of the country toward the president and government will for the eastern parts of the coun- Yarosh or Lyashko on the battle- Klaus Müller is professor of a bivectoral orientation of the ‘centre of Europe’ and the West, not be enough to overcome the try, namely to grant regional field, the oligarchs earned the for political science at the Ukrainian population. Accord- as explained by the new president. division of the country and the autonomy, local elections, lan- reputation as patriotic defenders AGH University of Science ing to this concept, which had But after barely a year in office, slump of the economy. The new guage rights, and special rela- of the nation against pro-Russian and Technology in Krakow, been introduced in the 1990s by the Orange Coalition of Yush- leadership is confronted with the tions with Russia. insurgents. Poland. continued from page 1 to Putin and his vision of Russia, on Russia, has orchestrated the hollow. However, where common current trends in Russian policy “reverse flow” of gas to Ukraine, interests are at stake, such as with The West’s Ukraine crisis may well continue. brokered a new gas deal between respect to the Northern Distribu- Although Ukraine is not a Russia and Ukraine, and will also tion Network for Afghanistan, NATO member, Allies have nev- be footing part of Ukraine’s gas cooperation should be pursued ertheless vowed to intensify their bill to help the country through – and protected to the extent relationship with Ukraine in order the winter. possible against disagreements in to enhance that country’s ability This shows that support for other areas. to provide for its own security. Ukraine has become support for Even if current events may not NATO provides support for the a rule-based European order. lead to a new Cold War, there reform and transformation of the At the same time, it indicates is an obvious need to revisit security and defence sectors. It the potential synergies that lie approaches that were developed also promotes greater interop- in a closer relationship between during that period, such as trans- erability between Ukraine’s and NATO and the EU. Although the parency and predictability mea- NATO forces, including through new Norwegian NATO Secretary sures. Cooperation under Cold continued Ukrainian participa- General, Jens Stoltenberg, is the War conditions proceeded from tion in NATO exercises. To fur- first NATO leader to come from the assumption that at least some ther strengthen their cooperation a non-EU nation, he will continue of the protagonists’ interests were

antzartzi in the defense and security sector, to push for such a stronger part- irreconcilable. Cooperating on Allies also promised to launch nership. such modest assumptions could NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg new programs with a focus on While NATO is currently in perhaps spare NATO and Russia inspects an exercise by the Greek military’s command, control and commu- a “wait-and-see” mode toward further disillusionment. Rapid Reaction Defense Force near the Platia islet, nications, logistics and standard- Russia, it takes no leap of imagi- in the Saronic Gulf (Gulf of Aegina), Oct. 30, 2014. ization, cyber defense, military nation to predict that NATO’s n

S i m ela P alliance/dpa/ picture career transition, and strategic future cooperation with Russia prices, Putin’s appeal to “Rus- ment among parts of the Russian reverse quickly. Moreover, given communications. will become more conditioned Michael Rühle is Head, sian values” and Russia’s mili- population, and by defining the the clampdown on all political Many Allies are also providing and focused on reciprocal behav- Energy Security Section, tary strength appears like a cal- West and NATO as adversaries, opposition and the suppression additional support to Ukraine on iour. Given all that has happened, in the Emerging Security culated gamble: by playing on he has chosen a path that he of civil society, as well as the a bilateral basis. And the EU, in cooperation simply for the sake of Challenges Division, NATO, deep-seated anti-Western resent- will not and probably cannot absence of a serious challenger addition to imposing sanctions cooperation appears increasingly Brussels. November 2014 3

Putin’s dangerous realpolitik His doctrine is quickly spiraling the world into a new Cold War | By Aleksandr Golts

picture alliance/dpa/mikhail Metzel ore than half a century A doctrine that makes former Soviet The Soviet Union had almost 5 mil- equal. At the very least, each side has television, reporting on a rehearsal of the ago, US politicians and leader Leonid Brezhnev’s doctrine of lion troops, but Russia, with its current a large enough arsenal to dissuade the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, political scientists vehe- limited sovereignty for eastern Euro- demographic problems, can muster no other from ever launching a nuclear pointed out that the Topol-M missile mently debated the ques- pean states look tame by comparison. more than 800,000. Soviet industry pro- attack. launched from Russia could easily reach tionM “Who lost China?” The NATO Apart from the imperative to protect duced the full gamut of goods, whereas It is no accident that, after making Washington. countries will soon be asking themselves “Russian speakers” from Ukrainian Russia is wholly dependent on imports in this point about checks and balances, In addition, pro-Kremlin television “Who lost Russia?” nationalists, Putin explained Crimea’s many areas. The Soviet Union created the Putin praised the most unpredictable anchor Dmitry Kiselyov said last month How did Russia, after almost a quarter annexation by saying: “We could not Warsaw Pact, a fairly powerful political former Soviet leader – Nikita Khrush- that the Perimeter system, which was cre- of a century as a member of the world’s allow NATO forces to eventually come and military alliance. But Putin admitted, chev. “True, the Soviet Union was ated during the Soviet era to automati- democratic community, revert to a totali- to the land of Crimea and Sevastopol, “Russia is fortunately not a member of referred to as ‘the Upper Volta with cally launch a nuclear counter-attack tarian state intent on biting off sizable the land of Russian military glory, and any alliance,” thereby indicating the true missiles.’ Maybe so, and there were loads after a US first strike, could turn the chunks of a neighboring country in the change the balance of forces in the Black value he places on the Collective Security of missiles. Besides, we had such brilliant United States into radioactive dust. name of what its leader refers to as his- Sea area.” Treaty Organization of the ex-Soviet politicians like Nikita Khrushchev, who Meeting with State Duma deputies in torical justice? The West can’t produce For Putin, the mere suspicion that republics. hammered the desk with his shoe at the August, Putin again tried to scare West- any clear explanation for this dramatic someone might infringe on Russia’s Clearly Russia cannot serve as a mili- UN. And the whole world, primarily the ern “counter-partners”: “We are talking turn. Instead, Western leaders – German geopolitical interests provides compel- tary counterweight to the United States. United States, and NATO thought: this about the most sophisticated arms, such Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Sec- ling justification for the annexation of a Russia’s only strong point is its nuclear Nikita is best left alone, he might just offensive and defensive systems that are retary of State John Kerry – preferred to large part of a neighboring state. What’s weapons, so Vladimir Putin relies pri- go and fire a missile, they have lots of as yet unavailable to other armies of the note that Putin lives in his own world – a more, Putin uses the “Russian charac- marily on those. He believes that the them, we had better show some respect world. We are yet to cheer up our part- world of fantasy and misperceptions. ter” of the residents of that neighboring possession of the second largest nuclear for them.” ners with ideas and their implementa- Putin heads a major nuclear state. That state as an argument for intervention. arsenal in the world gives Russia special Putin finds it terribly annoying that tion – in terms of the systems I have just makes it impossible to simply ignore his “Our country will continue to actively privileges in international affairs. But he Western leaders know he commands the mentioned… Some information remains doctrine. defend the rights of Russians, our com- regularly comes face to face with the real- world’s second largest nuclear arsenal secret, but we will disclose it when But Putin’s fantastic world is a world patriots abroad, using the entire range ity that this advantage does not work. and yet deny him the respect he believes the time comes.” Thus unpredictability of realpolitik, of the 1815 Congress of of available means, from political and He has his own explanation of this fact. he deserves. In reality, believing in the becomes Putin’s trump card. And it looks Vienna, or Yalta in 1945. The Great economic measures to operations under At the recent Valdai Discussion Club rationality of the new Russian lead- rather dangerous. Powers are playing an endless zero sum international humanitarian law and the forum, Putin insisted that the collapse ers following the collapse of the Soviet Small wonder then that in his Valdai game, trying to weaken their rivals by right of self-defense,” he said. Putin’s of the Soviet Union destroyed the system empire, Western leaders became con- speech Putin warned, “Today, we already establishing alliances and conducting regime apparently considers all citizens of “checks and balances” that existed vinced that no situation could conceiv- see a sharp increase in the likelihood of a proxy wars abroad. The irony is that of the former Soviet republics as “Rus- during the Cold War. ably arise anymore in which either side whole set of violent conflicts with either Putin never hides these views. One can sians,” meaning that his right of inter- In fact no such “system” ever existed. would push the red button and turn the direct or indirect participation by the recall his declaration that the terrorists vention extends to the entire territory of Both Moscow and Washington more planet into a radioactive desert. world’s major powers.” behind the 2004 Beslan school siege were the former Soviet Union. or less did as they pleased, acting as Putin wants to regain the kind of Welcome to the brave new world of backed by “certain forces” that do not Putin’s understanding of the world they felt their own national security “respect” that the West held for Khrush- Vladimir Putin, a world ruled by 19th- like the fact that Russia has a nuclear order obviously lags behind the prevail- interests demanded. That thinking led chev and he sees no other way but to century realpolitik, one in which dis- arsenal. Many observers interpreted ing concept by 60 or 70 years. Today’s to the invasions of Vietnam, Grenada, underscore his own unpredictability. I agreements between “major powers” are “certain forces” as meaning Western world exists in part because leading Afghanistan and Czechoslovakia. The suspect that the recent sorties by Rus- resolved through war. powers. nations respect certain conventions, and only system that existed was mutual sian strategic bombers over the Atlantic It is also appropriate to recall his turning the clock back to 1815 threatens nuclear deterrence, the understanding Ocean and the Baltic, North and Black n famous speech at Munich in 2007. Putin that order. that, if attacked, the potential adversary Seas serve the same purpose. then directly accused the United States of Putin’s doctrine is quickly spiraling could always retaliate and cause unac- Over the past few months officials and Aleksandr Golts is deputy editor trying to gain strategic superiority. the world into a new Cold War. The ceptable damage. opinion-makers close to the Kremlin of the online newspaper His speech to Russian ambassadors in Soviet Union lost the last Cold War. That system remains effectively tried to frighten the world with threats Yezhednevny Zhurnal July 2014 was a concentrated expres- What chances does Russia have in this unchanged to this day: both US and of starting a nuclear war. For example, and a columnist for sion of his foreign policy principles. one? Russian nuclear forces are relatively a correspondent for the state-controlled The Moscow Times.

ictoria Nuland’s voice doesn’t that’s what distinguishes it from our continued from page 1 normally reach many Euro- neighbors to the east,” he added. pean ears. Her position, though Are we family? Former German Finance Minister enormously important, lies Peer Steinbrück, now chairman of the A recipe beneathV most Germans’ recognition German-American Parliamentary Group threshold. In February, however, she burst At Aspen Germany’s 40th anniversary bash, of the Bundestag, appeared resentful at for global onto the front pages of Victoria Nuland hails the transatlantic partnership what he called a lack of (US) transpar- newspapers and ency in the TTIP negotiations. That made disaster websites here sary in Germany. Her keynote speech on the European Parliament Committee on it difficult for German advocates of the with a remark on “The Transatlantic Partnership at Stake” Foreign Affairs. “Putin is on the way to planned free trade agreement to persuade restraint warned of the dangers of a Ukraine policy reflected on ties between Europe and the getting a second monument.” the public of its advantages, he said. conflagration if we intervened. Now, the that someone US in the framework of the conference’s And Alexander Vershow, Deputy Sec- For Eckart von Klaeden, a former conflagration is here, and the interven- eavesdropped theme: “Do we still need each other?” retary General of NATO, believes that junior minister in Angela Merkel’s Chan- tion may well turn out to be too little, on: “F*** the “Now more than ever,” was her answer, “Putin has thrown away the international cellery and now head of external affairs too late. The current bombing campaign EU!” later she added: “We are family.” rule book.” at carmaker Daimler, the advantages are alone will certainly not end this conflict. That was one It wasn’t long ago that John Kornblum, Jürgen Hardt, the German govern- obvious. He reminded participants that Both major crises – Ukraine and Iraq/ good reason for the former US Ambassador in Germany, ment’s Coordinator of Transatlantic in the early 1960s, France (followed by Syria – reveal the dysfunctional state her audience to raised eyebrows with the remark that Cooperation, went so far as to speculate Germany) imposed a “chicken tax” on of the international order. Global and listen attentively “nations have no friends, only interests.” that, in case of a Russian invasion of the American poultry and that Washington regional structures are crumbling before when the US Assis- In Berlin it was above all the Americans Baltics, the Bundestag would approve retaliated in 1963 with a tax on potato our eyes. And the international commu- tant Secretary of State who assured the Europeans they were still German military involvement, even if starch, brandy, dextrin and light trucks. nity is unable to reverse or manage those for European and Eur- needed, even “desperately,” according to “the public might be opposed to it.” He That hit Volkswagen and remains in crises. There is neither a global policeman asian Affairs spoke Chris Painter, the US State Department’s added that he does not believe that Russia effect. The German chancellor at the nor an effective concert of great powers at a conference in Coordinator for Cyber Issues. currently threatens NATO, however. time, Konrad Adenauer, later said that taking care of these problems. The inter- Berlin in Octo- Those common interests were amply But disputes belong to family life too, half his correspondence with President national capacity to manage problems ber (left) mark- on display. “[Russian President Vladimir] and the German participants didn’t hold Kennedy over Berlin, Laos and the Bay is shockingly low – right at a time when ing the Aspen Putin is challenging us. He is forcing us back their criticism. Before and during of Pigs Invasion was about chickens. the world has become so complex and Institute’s to decide once again who we are, what the Iraq War the US side “lied and Today, comparing prices for a Mercedes complicated that we need this capacity 40th anni- we want and what our contribution to deceived,” said Brok. That was the germ or an iPhone 6 in Germany and the US more than ever before. v e r - our world order in the 21st century for subsequent mistrust. He said the is an enlightening exercise, Klaeden said. should be,” said Norbert Röttgen, consequence of that intervention in Iraq Italy’s Deputy Minister of Economic n Chairman of the Bundestag For- now exists under the name Islamic State. Development, Carlo Calenda, made it eign Affairs Committee. Turning to the NSA surveillance scandal easy for himself. Primarily “a lot of Wolfgang Ischinger is “In Brussels there is a monument that soured ties earlier this year, Brok anti-Americanism” was behind public chairman of the Munich Security to the first founder of NATO and said he believed the US would again find resistance to TTIP in Europe, he said. Conference and Global Head of the European Union – that is Josef a balance between security and freedom, But that makes a debate over its content Government Relations Christian Kruppa Stalin,” said Elmar Brok, Chairman of because the US is a democracy. “And even more necessary. PHK at Allianz SE. 4 November 2014 Breathing down Putin’s neck Russia’s president needs to keep looking over his shoulder. Rightist nationalists are pushing him to expand the conflict with Ukraine | By Michael Thumann

n the Frunze Strelkov and the “Prime Minis- ing the EU, but on the other leopards on he evening news. located Tverskaya Street. The Council has called for “preci- Embankment, right ter” of the “People’s Republic of to avoid international isolation Putin may have invented the Donetsk People’s Republic has sion strikes” against the Ukrai- next to the army high Donetsk,” Aleksandr Borodai, for Russia and escalated EU drama, but Strelkov is living it. not been officially recognized by nian army. A Putin adviser said command building, are military historians. Together sanctions against Moscow. That Putin plays a tactical game in Moscow, only by South Ossetia, the army could still neutralize you’llO find the specialists for Rus- with like-minded writers, direc- would just worsen the country’s the Ukraine conflict, manipulat- a country that itself is recog- the Ukrainian armed forces by sia’s struggle to survive. tors and philosophers, during economic straits, so Putin has ing public opinion, shifting it nized by Moscow but practically invading. In half a year that “Ever since the Malaysian the 1990s they kept themselves refrained from marching into first this way than that. Strelkov no one else. Call it pariah soli- would be hardly possible any- plane crash a huge propaganda occupied by re-enacting his- East Ukraine. shoots straight – at “the fas- darity. Rodkin is an ex-soldier, more, as the Ukrainians were war has been waged against torical battles and joining real He might still enjoy approval cists.” Never before in Putin’s former military correspondent arming, he added. Putin’s Russia,” said Andrei Fefelov, wars. Some fought in Bosnia, ratings reaching 80 percent, but wars – be it in Georgia or Chech- for Komsomolskaya Pravda and spokesman stressed that that is deputy chief editor of the news- in Serbia, and/or Chechnya. In in the race for patriotic esteem nya – has a soldier risen to such spokesman for Putin’s party not the president’s position. It paper Zavtra (Tomorrow). It Russia, many stood with the he’s beginning to fall behind the heights of popularity. United Russia. adds up to mixed signals from claims to have a circulation of opposition in 1993 against Presi- fighters for New Russia. Perhaps that is why the pro- And what does he do as an the Kremlin. 100,000 but the editorial staff dent Boris Yeltsin in the deadly Their chief ideologue, Alek- Putin TV stations have begun ambassador without portfo- The patriots supporting sepa- is small and works in a dark battle over the parliament build- sandr Dugin, has taken to openly taking aim at Strelkov. He’s not lio? “I work for humanitarian ratism in eastern Ukraine, on and inconspicuous ground floor the other hand, have a clear apartment. “We’re preparing for message. At the Central House a blockade of the country,” he of Writers, author Sergei Shar- said, adding that Russia is being gunov welcomed his guests. The isolated and demonized – but salon was like a yellowed post- won’t be cowed. As the Ukrai- card from the late Stalin period. nian offensive toward Donetsk Dark wood paneling, well-worn gained ground, Fefelov recalled parquet floor, beige lampshades the besieged cities of the Soviet “Miss!” Shargunov called to Union during World War II. a waitress. “You’re a Ukrai- “The partisan war will soon nian. What does the Russian begin,” he prophesied, in both world mean to you?” She did Donetsk and Odessa. not take long to reply. “Russia All just a fantasy? has always defended us:” When War cannot be completely Napoleon came, Russia threw planned, not even by a man as him back. It was the same when powerful as the Russian presi- Hitler came. And today, given dent. The downing of Flight the threat from America, Russia MH17 was one of those war- once again was standing by the time imponderables. Outrage Ukrainians, she said. “So you at Russia spread across the see!” said Shargunov, satisfied. world. Inside Russia, the bar- Together with Zavtra’s Andrei ricades went up to keep the Fefelov and others, Shargunov world at bay. Ever since the recently visited Donetsk, where annexation of Crimea the coun- they met the Russian militia- try has been riding a wave of men. “Those people had what patriotic fervor. Vladimir Putin Russian bureaucrats do not: set that wave in motion and convictions.” Their ideas were thought he could control it. But spreading like a blaze, he said. now the radicals are in motion. In eastern Ukraine a “Russian A few years ago media outlets dream” was becoming reality. like Zavtra were marginal and “New Russia is an experimental insignificant. Today their edi- space for new ideas, against the torials are merging with public injustice of bureaucracy, against opinion. That puts pressure on dependence on the outside world Putin and restricts him, as in and the oligarchs.” Was the his response to the plane crash. downing of the airliner also an Before that, he, the president, experiment? “No one wanted to directed the production. Now, shoot it down,” Shargunov said. others are crowding onto the The crash was the result of a war Vladimir Putin visiting national stage, voicing increas- an Orthodox monastery that ignored all frontiers. “It ingly radical demands. near Moscow. was practically to be expected.” Inside the Zavtra office there Shargunov referred to a “Rus- is a waist-high cabinet arranged P ress S ervice P residential K li m entyev/ RIA - N ovosti/Mikhail AP P hoto/ sian spring.” It was an uprising like an altar. Soviet red stars ing. Many wrote for Zavtra or criticizing Kremlin officials. He’s being accused of having downed assistance and help refugees,” against Ukraine, the West, Rus- glow alongside Orthodox cru- comparable websites. become a theorist of the “eter- the passenger jet. The message is he says. Well over 100,000 sian officials and their bribes all cifixes, model tanks and, in the Earlier they were just odd nal” antagonism between East that Ukraine has MH17 on its people have left East Ukraine at once, he said. The Russian center, a large Byzantine two- extremists. But then, under and West, Russia against Amer- conscience. Instead, a Kremlin for Russia. “They will return,” spring united leftists and right- headed eagle made of porce- Putin, Soviet nostalgia and the ica, Eurasia against the Atlantic ally criticized the commander Rodkin is certain. New Russia ists, Stalinists, Orthodox Chris- lain. Two ornamented spouts yearning for global greatness world, Orthodox processions for having abandoned two cities will grow, he says. Besides tians, Russians and their friends protrude from its neck, for the returned. That’s why, today, against gay pride marches. in East Ukraine unnecessarily. Donetsk it includes the cities of in Ukraine. It was a radical oppo- vodka in its belly. Around its Russian radicals are playing the Dugin characterizes this antag- TV pundits have begun explain- Kharkiv, Odessa and Mikolayiv, sition that opposed two govern- wings, a banner is draped with main part in the war against onism as a “conflict of values.” ing why the rebels’ demand in his estimation. That’s half of ments: directly against the one in the name “J. V. Stalin” printed Ukraine. They’re fighting for a He believes Moscow is not doing that Russia send in the army Ukraine. Kiev and, indirectly, the officials on it. This is an altar to the faith country they call Novorossiya – enough to assist its embattled is wrong: because that would The fighters in New Russia in the Kremlin. Its battalions are of Russian nationalists: Ortho- New Russia. brothers in New Russia. But simply play into the hands of can be sure of the Russian peo- in Donetsk, its ideas on the Inter- dox Christian Stalinism. To the Their commitment is also a Putin is not to blame. “It’s the America, which is seeking to ple’s sympathy. A survey by net, where people are already fan- untrained Western eye they seem direct challenge to Vladimir fifth column in the Kremlin,” he paint Russia as the aggressor the independent Levada polling tasizing about a third world war. to clash, but today’s Moscow This Russian spring threatens bears witness to their flourishing Vladimir Putin’s status. He has to symbiosis. The red and white support the nationalists to keep Russia, Stalinism and tsar-wor- his own image as commander- ship, Socialism and Orthodoxy. in-chief credible. But he also has Everything that makes Russia to fight the nationalists because look great, fits in – or is made they want to dictate policy. The to fit in. war in Ukraine is slowly becom- He’s always been amazed ing a problem for Putin’s power. at the ascetic modesty of life The greater the patriotic fervor, back in the USSR, Fefelov says. the better for the New Russia “That was something it had in nationalists. The airliner crash common with Orthodoxy.” It, has worsened Putin’s predica- too, opposes the “ostentation” ment. Domestically he has to play that, unfortunately, prevails in the hero while finessing exter- Russia today, he said. His coun- nal relations. Don’t expect any try is far too reliant on interna- sudden changes in policy. tional capitalism, meaning on m aa aukko Meanwhile the radical nation- the US, which gets to dictate its alist camp has no shortage of terms everywhere, Fefelov said. new ideas. Earlier in Soviet times Under Putin, however, Russia is people planned to reverse the regaining its independence, he course of the Siberian rivers to added. Now all that’s missing, irrigate Central Asia. It came H eikki S alliance/dpa/ picture wikipedia REUTERS /Maxi m Zm eyev he concludes, is a party that Alexander Dugin (left), theorist of Russia’s new right, rejects Western values and technocrats. Writer Sergei Shargunov (center) sees a “Russian to nothing. Now a “Center for would fight corruption as reso- spring” rising from the war in Ukraine. Right: Commander “Strelkov” – a Russian military historian with experience in Chechnya. Eurasian Agricultural Policy” lutely as Stalin once did. has recommended blocking cen- Russians who share these Putin. The president conquered believes. Dugin means the oli- in the conflict. Television is fol- institute showed 64 percent of tral Ukraine’s freshwater artery. views are manning the front lines Crimea and armed the separat- garchs in Putin’s inner circle, the lowing Putin’s tactical about- the Russian population support- Russia, it said, should dam the in Ukraine. They issue orders to ists in East Ukraine. But then economic liberals and political face and, cautiously, taking a ing the separatists’ fight. Most tributaries of the Dnepr River separatist fighters in Donetsk came the reckoning, in the form technocrats. He has little respect distanced attitude to the fighters still reject a Russian invasion and re-route its source west of and call themselves prime min- of Western sanctions and big for Putin’s Ukraine adviser, who in East Ukraine. of Ukraine, but the ranks of Moscow. Central Ukraine would isters or commanders. Andrei subsidies for Crimea. The state devises “national movements Just ask the “Permanent Rep- those who would welcome it then face both droughts and dev- Fefelov knows them all. They recently resorted to dipping into and then lets them die.” Dugin resentation of the Donetsk Peo- have swelled in recent weeks astating storms, the economic went to university together and pension funds to finance the accuses the adviser of “false ple’s Republic,” the rebels’ rep- to 24 percent. Another 35 per- planners write. Several minis- trod the same battlefields. Four- Crimean projects. patriotism, treason and destruc- resentative in Moscow. Andrei cent support arms shipments tries in Moscow, they say, have teen years ago Fefelov drove And now, the downing of tion” of the national spirit. Rodkin is not an easy man to to Strelkov and his brigades. expressed interest in the study. together in a jeep with the sepa- Flight MH17 has trashed Rus- Such attacks are dangerous for find. All the Internet addresses Following months of one-sided ratist commander in Donetsk, sia’s reputation worldwide, Putin. Figures like Strelkov have of the “embassy” lead nowhere. information in the evening news, n the legendary Igor Girkin alias although Russian TV heaps all long since risen to the status of Rodkin doesn’t have a permanent nearly 60 percent of all Russians Strelkov, through the shattered the blame on Kiev. national heroes. He fights under office. If the Kremlin wanted, support anti-Kiev policies. Michael Thumann writes Chechen capital Grozny. “He Putin’s dilemma is, on the one the fire of the Ukrainian govern- he’d have had one long ago. Politicians have seen opportu- about foreign affairs knew every stone there,” Fefelov hand, to keep Ukraine vulner- ment in Donetsk while, assisted By cell phone we arrange to nities open up as a result. The in the German weekly reminisced. able so as to keep it from join- by a zookeeper, Putin pets baby meet for coffee on centrally deputy speaker of the Federal Die Zeit. November 2014 5

ooking at Asia, one create a $16.3 billion fund for the cannot help pointing purpose. The scheme has already out that the region may been called China’s Marshall Plan. be called Asia-Pacific or The Indians see it in a quite Indo-Pacific,L but that this label different light: as a continuation does not automatically make it of Beijing’s assertive diplomacy peaceful. by other means. They consider The world’s most perilous flash- China’s “string of pearls” strategy points are all in Asia: Kashmir, as a threat: the new ports it has Taiwan, Korea. Beyond that, there built at Gwadar in western Paki- are numerous stress-lines and stan; in Sri Lanka at Hambantota, fault-lines between Bombay and in Chittagong, Bangladesh; and in the Bering Straits, arising from Kyaukpyu, Myanmar. The visit of conflicting territorial claims and China’s President Xi Jinping to Sri the ambitions of many littoral Lanka and the Maldives in Octo- states. Between Hainan and Hok- ber greatly nourished their appre- kaido there is hardly an island, hensions. The Chinese see this as islet, shoal or riff that is not con- a natural for the world’s number tested. In the South China Sea, one trading nation; to them, pro- Beijing pursues an assertive, even tecting the sea routes on which aggressive policy, pitting itself their economy depends is a nec- against Vietnam, Malaysia and essary yet innocuous enterprise. the Philippines, while the dispute From the Indian vantage point, over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands however, the string of pearls is has dangerously raised tensions perceived as a geopolitical pincer between Japan and China. movement – a menacing scheme More worrisome is the escalat- of encirclement. ing tension between China and the To counter the expanding Chi- United States. The “Chimerica” nese presence in India’s sphere of thesis, put forth some years ago influence, Delhi has launched a by Niall Ferguson, that the two policy of “internal balancing,” would become partners rather meaning a military build-up on than rivals or even adversaries the Himalayan boundary and has never merited much plausi-

a m ura upgrading the infrastructure in T bility. But the jury is still out the border region. Beyond that, on what kind of relationship is it has been intensifying its Look going to evolve between them: a East policy, seeking closer security cooperative or a confrontational relations with the United States, alignment. Historically, the com- Beijing bilateral: Vietnam, the Philippines, Austra- petition between emergent powers US President Barack Obama and lia and Japan. Chinese President Xi Jinping. impinging on the preserves of This strategy of “eternal bal- established powers trying to alliance/ AP Im ages/Mitsuru picture ancing” is intended to achieve thwart their rise has more often what the country cannot hope to than not ended in war. The cre- achieve on its own. A raft of stra- ation of a “strategic partnership” tegic partnerships encompasses between China and the US signals The Asia-Pacific cooperation in the fields of defense an avowed common interest in and maritime security, military charting a constructive outcome, training and arms procurement. but so far no significant steps have Simultaneously, the Indians are been taken in that direction. bolstering their strength at sea. A In fact, there are troubling indi- balancing act rising share of the defense budget cations that the establishment of is allocated to the navy, which got a new balance of power might not Keeping China in check without antagonizing Beijing $6.2 billion after just $4.2 billion proceed all too smoothly. Hardlin- three years ago. The construction ers in Beijing – such as Colonel is a diplomatic challenge | By Theo Sommer of the Varsha Naval Base on the Liu Mingfu in his book “Chinese east coast signals an eastward Dream” – believe that conflict is from its Asian-Pacific sphere of of official statements vaunting Chin, India Arunachal Pradesh. trials. India finds it hard to keep rebalancing of its capabilities. inherent in US-China relations; influence could create a highly the good will between the two Nehru turned the deal down. A up. Its fleet is aging, spending The same goes for the modern- that the two countries will be perilous situation – perhaps not nations and their desire to boost 1987 agreement to maintain peace curbs limit the replacement of old ization and expansion of facilities engaged in a “marathon contest” today or tomorrow but twenty or regional connectivity. The mete- and tranquility along the Line of ships. In the past five years, the on the Andaman and Nicobar and the “duel of the century”; and thirty years on, when The People’s oric rise of China during the past Actual Control (LAC) has never Indian navy commissioned only islands. Neglected for decades, the that China must become Number Republic, towering above the rest two decades, leaving India increas- been ratified. There is still no six major surface combat ves- 750-kilometer (466 miles) island One – the world’s top power. of Asia, might succumb to the ingly behind both in economic and commonly accepted LAC or an sels, while China commissioned chain close to South East Asia is Even moderate observers like temptation to challenge the US in military terms, has dramatically agreed map. 23; India built one sub (and lost now being beefed up militarily. the respected political scientist head-on. enlarged the area of friction. Three Thus each side blames the other one), China 18. A comparison of Sitting above the entrance to the Shi Yinhong of Renmin University To forestall such a dire devel- issues, in particular, are worri- for border incursions. While the two countries’ air forces is no Malacca Strait, it could serve as a have begun to wonder whether opment, Henry Kissinger in his some in this context. aiming at establishing closer more flattering for the Indians. chokepoint to block Chinese oil China’s rise can be accomplished new book “World Order“ recom- The first is the long-standing economic relations with China, “We must take note of our tankers in any grave crisis. peacefully, given the strategic mends a combination of balance- border dispute. India shares a India’s new Prime Minister Nar- neighbor’s military, cyber and No other region is arming as distrust, the intense rivalry with of-power strategy with partner- 3,380 kilometer-long frontier endra Modi remains adamant maritime capabilities that are frenetically as Asia. In 2008, Asia America and the hardening US ship diplomacy. This is certainly a with China. It is disputed in its on the border question. During vastly expanding,” argues a recent accounted for 17 percent of the stance. In Washington, too, there recipe worth a try, and one appli- entirety, but actually the contest the recent electoral campaign he publication from the Delhi think world’s military expenditures, and are many experts who think it is cable to relations between India centers on Aksai Chin in the west sternly exhorted Beijing: “China tank Observer Research Founda- for 22 percent in 2013; by 2017 high time to stop China’s revision- and China as well – the other great and Arunachal Pradesh in the east, should give up its expansionist tion. “India needs to catch up its share is forecast to reach 24 ist ambitions by organizing its power duo which carries both the both of them harrowing legacies attitude, and adopt a development with China in terms of moderniza- percent. What makes this arms neighbors into a counterweight seed of constructive cooperation of the British empire. Various mindset.” tion.” Yet balancing China across race particularly troublesome is capable of effectively containing and the germ of confrontation. border lines demarcated by the The second issue that causes the whole panoply of military the absence of even a rudimen- Beijing’s assertiveness. Relations between The People’s Raj – the Johnson Line of 1865, serious concern in India is China’s capabilities comes as a formidable tary multilateral framework to In his book “The China Choice,” Republic of China and India, the McCartney Line of 1899 and rearmament. The Chinese have challenge. contain or defuse tensions in the Hugh White, the eminent Austra- established in 1950, were ambiva- the McMahon Line of 1913/14 2.2 million men under arms. Since The third matter of concern to region. This has led some observ- lian analyst on China, argues that lent from the start. The popular – created an inextricable legal 2001 their defense budget has India is the grandiose Chinese ers to remark that if Asians don’t for the US, the established power, catch phrase then was „Hindi- tangle. grown by 10.9 percent annually, plan for a Maritime Silk Road – a watch out, Europe’s past – a past and China, the rising power, to Chine bhai-bhai“ – „Indians and Both countries established facts amounting to $114 billion accord- venture to parallel the Silk Road of contention, rivalry and war – coexist peacefully and not get Chinese are brothers.” But at the on the ground: during the 1950s, ing to their published figures Economic Belt connecting China might well become the template drawn into a fateful war – like same time, Nehru told his envoy the Chinese occupied Aksai Chin ($166 billion according to west- with Central Asia and Europe. for Asia’s future. Athens and Sparta did in the fifth to Beijing not to trust the Chinese and built a road across it from ern assessments). At any rate, it is Harking back centuries, the twin A stand-off between the United century BC – the US has to agree at all. Xinjiang to Tibet; in 1951, the the world’s second largest defense Silk Roads are massive trade and States and China and an armed to eventually give up its bases and Border disputes and repeated Indian army threw out the Tibet- budget. India has 1.3 million active infrastructure networks aimed at conflict between India and China alliances in the Pacific, and share skirmishes along the Himalayan ans and established the federal troops; its defense budget amounts boosting China’s trade with the are the worst contingencies imag- power with China. Yet this is frontier, including a four-week state of Arunachal Pradesh (which to just $45.7 billion. whole Eurasian continent. inable. To prevent such dire devel- unlikely to happen under any US border war in 1962 (in which the Chinese still insist on calling China is rapidly expanding its At the same time, however, the opments by balancing the relation- president. Thus China’s push for India suffered a crushing defeat), “South Tibet”). navy, which currently counts 221 aim is clearly to boost China’s ship with the People’s Republic regional hegemony at least over and countless rounds of – so far When China’s premier Zhou warships and 55 submarines; the regional influence, not least by without making an enemy of it the western Pacific and America’s inconclusive – border negotia- Enlai came to India in 1960, he Liaoning, a refurbished Ukrainian footing the bill for many ambi- will be a priority task of statecraft determination not to get evicted tions kept undermining the raft offered a swap: China keeps Aksai aircraft carrier, is undergoing sea tious projects; Beijing plans to in the coming decades. n

ill India’s foreign policy Consequently, India’s security strategy ruled out any territorial compromise Mexican Foreign Minister José Anto- change? Following the needs to be built around the question of in the on-going bilateral dialogue with nio Meade Kuribreña agreed. He stressed election of Narendra “what can we do to strengthen democ- We need China to resolve the pending border that the world should pay much more Modi in India, “the racy”. “We have a strong democracy in dispute. ”Our territorial integrity cannot attention to the foreign policies of states worldW has been watching with great our country, if we had similar democra- be compromised but I see positive signals like Indonesia, South Korea, and Mexico anticipation, expectations and curi- cies in our region, that could be one of the a system from China and we have to evolve and as all of them had valuable lessons to osity,” said Ambassador Wolfgang very surest symbols of India’s security.” engage each other rather than work in offer. Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich Doval shared a pessimistic view of the isolation.” Echoing Churchill’s famous quip about Security Conference, at the 6th Munich international ability to deal with conflicts Navtej Sarna, the Secretary (West) of democracy, former Australian Prime Security Conference Core Group Meet- and crises. He stressed that today ter- redesign the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Minister Kevin Rudd said that the post- ing in New Delhi, Oct. 21-22. India’s rorism was much more intense than 13 said that in year 70 of the current inter- 1945 arrangements that still form the new National Security Advisor Ajit years ago when the war on terror was The world has no national order that was built at the end basis of the international order repre- Doval took the chance to outline the declared. “The new genre of conflicts has functioning mechanism of World War II, the “world is in denial.” sented “the worst system of international foreign and security policy of the new no substantially proven correct response. He believes that far-reaching reforms governance – except for all the others.” government. We are just [grasping] at darkness. […] to respond to the new were unavoidable, since “the once pow- Shashi Tharoor, the chairman of the Four months after assuming the secu- We are trying, we are succeeding, we genre of conflicts erful cannot deal alone” with critical Parliamentary Standing Committee on rity advisor role in the new govern- are failing … But most of the time, it issues such as climate change. External Affairs of the Indian Parlia- ment of Prime Minister Modi, Doval doesn’t work.” technical and legal systems to fight terror The director, president and CEO of the ment and former UN undersecretary stressed the importance of unity among Doval also called for a comprehen- at the domestic level, “at the global level Woodrow Wilson International Center general, said he agreed with Rudd, but democratic states in dealing with today’s sive United Nations convention against we have failed to make much headway in for Scholars, Jane Harman, argued that only as far as the systems of the past biggest security challenges. “Our hope terrorism. “There should be a collec- creating working global systems.” in today’s world “no country can afford were concerned. This could not mean lies in greater unity, understanding and tive response, a systemic convergence, Doval said India wanted to resolve to be non-aligned anymore.” She added that no better future system could be commonality between the great democra- automated systems and institutionalized conflict with any country through talks that Woodrow Wilson, one of the found- devised. “The need for a system redesign cies,” he said. “Democracy remains one mechanisms” to combat the threat of and negotiations. “We believe that there ing fathers of today’s international order, is pretty apparent,” he argued and called of the most powerful tools for dealing terrorism, he said. He noted that though is no conflict which cannot be resolved would argue that the order would have for India to play a strong part in any with security problems.” many countries have established military, through talks in a peaceful way.” Doval to become more inclusive. such a redesign. ST 6 November 2014

A diminished presidency The Republican majority in Congress will affect Obama’s foreign policy too By Martin Klingst picture alliance/AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais n Nov. 4, Barack zone to another, from one media- ask for congressional support in priate. The first stems from the has to pay for it. The president Lame duck? President Barack Obama’s Democrats tion effort to the next, from state confronting a crisis. weeks following the 9/11 attacks, also needs money to support Obama at the G20 Summit in lost control of the visit to state visit. Some achieved Unlike George W. Bush, who the second from Bush’s Iraq inva- Ukraine’s government in Kiev Brisbane on Nov. 16. Senate. In the mid- great things along the way and tended to go it alone, Obama sion. and supply its army with up-to- an outcry against this concession termO elections, the Republicans secured their places in the history seeks the backing of Congress in Obama’s inclusiveness towards date hardware. The same applies and demand by law that the entire also boosted their majority in the books. dangerous situations. One exam- Congress has at least partly to maneuvers on NATO’s east- treaty be submitted to Congress House of Representatives. The The Republican Ronald ple was in the summer of 2013 amounted to a departure from ern border that have not been for ratification. Doing so would conservatives now have a major- Reagan, for example, helped when – against the advice of sev- standard operating procedures in budgeted for, mobile hospitals put Obama in a vise: He could ity in both houses of Congress. end the Cold War. His succes- eral close advisers – he insisted on past White House administra- in the fight against Ebola and veto the law and further sour ties What will that mean for the for- sor George Bush, father of Iraq a congressional vote on backing tions. From Vietnam to Afghani- additional drone missions over with Congress, including many eign policy of the 44th President War commander-in-chief George air strikes against Syrian chemi- stan, America’s presidents have Libya, Yemen and Somalia. lawmakers in his own party. Or of the United States? W. Bush, became a guarantor cal weapons. He had, after all, led their country to war without The Republicans are not going he could submit to the Republi- Practically nothing, according of Germany’s reunification. And promised voters he would bring first turning to the people’s elected to block most such initiatives. In cans and try to re-negotiate the to conventional wisdom. The in the year 2000, Democrat Bill wars to an end instead of starting representatives – who could have fact they support many of them. treaty. But that would throw the power shift is very bad news, Clinton came closer to brokering new ones. responded with a yes or no. But they will use all the means at entire deal into doubt. we are told, mainly for Obama’s a peace treaty between Israel and After it became apparent that Mostly, Congress was left with their disposal, including autho- Another possibility would domestic agenda, chiefly the sur- the Palestinians than any presi- Capitol Hill would not be provid- no choice but to either grudg- rization of funding, to influence involve the Republicans’ demand vival of his health care package dent before or since. The negoti- ing the hoped-for support and ingly authorize funding for these Obama’s decisions and put their for a more hawkish stance toward and planned immigration reform. ated results from Camp David Russia rescued Obama at the last campaigns after the fact through own stamp on his foreign policy. Vladimir Putin’s Russia. It’s pos- Foreign policy would remain and Taba remain the guiding minute with a diplomatic offer, a supplementary budget, cut it The Republican majority in Con- sible that, with their majority, largely untouched. During his last principles for every new Middle air strikes did not take place after somewhat or – an option that has gress, and especially the Senate, they would pass tougher sanctions two years in office, the constitu- East mission. all, and neither did the vote. But never actually happened – refuse which pays more attention to than Obama wants. Again, he tion and America’s political tradi- But of course it’s not completely Obama was politically damaged. it completely. No Congress stabs external affairs, will see to that. could veto the measure, but that tions will give the congressional true that presidents can run for- Still, the president insists on a wartime president in the back. For example, should a nuclear would weaken his stature, espe- majority little chance to leave its eign policy uninhibited and with- consulting the people’s elected And yet, the power of the purse treaty with Iran be successfully cially in dealing with America’s mark there. out restrictions up to their last day representatives on issues or war is one of Congress’ most potent negotiated, Obama could, on his more cautious European allies. As evidence, analysts point to in office. And that’s especially true and peace. Recently he announced weapons. Anyone with access own, ease sanctions on Tehran. The Republican majority has Obama’s predecessors in office. of the Obama era. Whether Con- he would ask Congress to autho- to those purse strings also has Yet it’s quite likely that the neither the power nor means to Facing a hostile Congress, many gress will allow itself to be held at rize military action against the substantial influence on foreign Republicans won’t like the deal, completely undermine Obama’s sought their salvation in foreign arm’s length depends very much Islamic State group. Until now policy. If the money isn’t talk- since it would, in all probability, foreign policy. But it can put its policy. They climbed aboard Air on the nature of the various global Obama has based this initiative ing, no one’s walking. If Obama give Iran the right to enrich lim- hand on the rudder, and make the Force One and jetted restlessly conflicts, and to what extent the on two legal precedents that are wants to send additional mili- ited amounts of uranium on its final years of the 44th President’s around the globe, from one crisis president believes he needs to neither new nor really appro- tary advisers to Iraq, someone own soil. Republicans would lead tenure very unpleasant. n

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Fear of returnees Al Qaida, with its high level of organization, remains the biggest terrorist threat to Europe By Guido Steinberg

Getty Images/Anadolu Agency uropeans have a new one of the most worrying things territory it controls in Syria and the world over. In order to suc- US government agrees with that Do German jihadists returning fear. Since 2012, some was that most of the radicalized Iraq. This is demonstrated for ceed, he will have to carry out assessment, as demonstrated on from Syria represent a violent 3,000 people from young Europeans traveling to the instance by the fact that European an attack in the West sooner or Sept. 22 when it began airstrikes threat to Germany? Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) on Nov. 9, 2014. Europe have traveled to region joined the IS and not the fighters are frequently used as later – because that is the only against IS positions in Syria. The theE war zone in Syria – at least other rebel groups fighting the suicide bombers on the ground kind of activism that will attract first cruise missiles, rockets and of Ibrahim Assiri, a Saudi bomb 400 of them from Germany. Will Assad regime in Syria. in the Mideast – instead of being worldwide attention over any bombs also hit targets in Idlib maker in the Yemeni al-Qaeda those who have joined the jihad- The fear of IS attacks in Europe sent back to their home countries. length of time. province in the north of the coun- – and a Jihadist legend. In 2009 ists in Syria and Iraq return to grew in May 2014, when a French From June to September alone, In addition, the IS has come try – surprisingly, as the IS had and 2010, he prepared explosives carry out attacks on their Euro- returnee from Syria – who was the IS reported the deaths of five under greater pressure since the abandoned its bases there at the to be hidden in the underwear pean homelands? believed to have been trained by German suicide bombers in Iraq. start of airstrikes by the US and start of the year. of a suicide bomber and in two The fear is based on the expe- the IS – shot dead four people at That does not mean that IS will its allies in Iraq in August and in Washington made no secret of printer cartridges. Both attacks rience with returnees from the the Jewish Museum in Brussels. not start ordering attacks in the Syria in September. It takes only the fact that those attacks were were aimed at blowing up pas- jihadist conflict zones of past wars There is no evidence that this Western world. It is competing a small leap of logic to see that not directed against IS but against senger jets preparing to land in in Iraq and Afghanistan, who car- attack was ordered by the IS or against al-Qaeda. IS leader, Abu the resolve of wobbly old Europe a previously little-known group the US. Both attacks were foiled. ried out a number of devastating logistically supported by it. It is Bakr al-Baghdadi made it clear could be weakened by terrorist known as Khorasan. Several Assiri, the Americans believed, attacks in Europe and planned not, in fact, clear whether the IS when he declared the caliphate attacks at home. Obama administration officials was linked to the Khorasan group many more which failed. Ever is planning any attacks in Europe. in June 2014 that he sees himself Despite this, the far more con- described it as a far greater terror- and may even be in Syria. since the triumphal march of the IS strategy is primarily directed as the rightful heir to Osama bin crete and immediate threat is not ist threat to the West than the IS. It is not clear how successful the Islamic State (IS) across Iraq in at securing and expanding the Laden as the leader of jihadists from the IS but al-Qaeda. The Jihadists use the name Khorasan airstrikes were. There are indica- the middle of this year, the threat for Afghanistan; the Khorasan tions that the Khorasan leader, a posed by returning fighters has  km group is largely made up of al- Kuwaiti called Muhsin al-Fadli, been on the agenda of every secu- TURKEY Qaeda members coming to Syria was killed. However, the fact that rity policy discussion. from Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US Air Force flew a new series Yet anyone seeking to more Kobani Iran to join the local al-Qaeda of missions against Khorasan tar- precisely assess the potential Mosul IRAN branch, the Nusra Front. And gets in Idlib shows that at least danger of the returnees needs to Erbil because the Nusra Front is espe- part of the group was able to get take a look at the institutions Raqqa Sinjar cially strong in the province of away. But their activities are likely that have attracted fighters in Idlib, it was only logical for the to continue. South Asia and the Arab world. Makhmour Kirkuk Khorasan group to establish its Syria is full of European and Major attacks with many casual- headquarters there. Turkish volunteers who could be ties like the ones in Madrid in Amirli US intelligence services report recruited for suicide missions on 2004 and London in 2005 can that the group tried to get recruits Western airplanes. Yemen’s al- only be planned and carried out SYRIA from western countries to carry Qaeda has frequently shown that by organizations with money and out attacks on air traffic, even it is capable of more than just get- expertise – not by lone terrorists, Haditha keeping open channels to al- ting small amounts of explosives whose attacks tend to have a Qaeda in Yemen, which had with potentially large effects on smaller effect. Baghdad experience in that area. Just how board transatlantic flights. The The organization most fre- IRAQ concrete the information was, technical possibilities exist – pos- quently cited in this context is was reflected in the US terrorism sibly even in Syria – and they the “Islamic State,” the Iraqi- warning in July 2014. Based on will not simply disappear, even Syrian militia force that stormed ISIS/IS presence ISIS/IS-controlled Cities in which the the intelligence from Syria, the areas PKK is deployed if Assiri is killed or captured. In across large parts of western and warning meant that travelers on the coming years, the connec- IRAQ Iraqi Kurdistan/ areas attacked air strikes northwestern Iraq in the middle Peshmerga by ISIS/IS transatlantic flights had to prove tion of European recruits with of this year, and also took more that the batteries in their elec- al-Qaeda’s technical knowhow territory in Syria, where it already Kurdish Areas Infographic: Infotext/P. Sobotta tronic devices were charged. will present a more concrete and controlled part of the east and Such measures were a pointer increased danger for Europe and Sources: BBC, afp, Institut for the Study of War, CIA Factbook, WSJ north of the country. For Europe, to the extraordinary creativity the US than the IS does. n

The MSR will be launched at the traditional MSC Kickoff event in Berlin on January 26, 2015 Munich Security Report

2015 Beginning in 2015, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) will publish an annual digest of international security affairs called the Munich Security Report (MSR). Meant as an easy-to-consume Collapsing com panion for decision makers and the inter ested public, it will provide a Order? summary of key trends and events as Reluctant well as a selection of the most insightful Guardians? analyses, research, and forecasts. For Published on the occasion of the MSC 2015 the project, the MSC will partner with a number of the world’s prime research http://www.securityconference.de/ institutions. 8 November 2014

t the end of the day, the years accrued much broader only 40 percent of the decision-making powers that electorate took part could be exercised locally rather in the informal refer- Europe’s not imploding than in Brussels. Aendum on independence for the This is the context for under- Spanish region of Catalonia. But Despite Catalonia and Scotland the old continent is not reverting to destructive, standing – and evaluating – the of those, 80 percent favored state- confusing European landscape hood. Scotland’s independence bid small minded nationalism | By Paul Hockenos before us today. The Catalan may have failed – but the whole and Scottish independence move- affair revealed powerful grassroots ments are largely civic-national support for a Scottish state. campaigns – pro-EU, open to the Given the chance, perhaps the world, environmentally conscious Basques, the northern Irish, Flem- – pushed to drastic measures by ish, Corsicans, South Tyroleans, stubborn states that refuse to and others would give it a shot, loosen the reigns. After all, Spain too. And across Europe, national- is still a central state that regu- ist, anti-EU parties are on the rise, larly locks horns with Catalonia led by politicos who want beefed- over the wide-ranging autonomy up borders, fewer foreigners and that its people demand. The same more state revenue (or even ter- goes for Great Britain’s relation to ritory) for their particular volk. Scotland. And Brussels has hardly Is 21st century Europe reverting been generous in loosening its to the destructive, small-minded control in favor of Europe’s local nationalism that triggered World and regional entities. War I and put the continent on a The answer need not be damag- road to ruin a hundred years ago? ing all-or-nothing campaigns that And could the European Union’s set up new national states, new vision of a united transnational bureaucracies, and new borders. Europe be out of step with the What Europe needs is more civic- average European burgher? minded nation-states with flex- One could be forgiven for con- ible federal systems and devolved cluding as much. But Europe’s power structures including self- not imploding. Nor is the EU’s rule for regions. greater vision out of kilter with Enhanced political and fiscal the zeitgeist. Rather, the relation- autonomy would take the wind ship between Europe’s nations, out of separatists’ sails and under- states, regions and shared insti- Manuel B aliellas alliance/ ZU M APRESS .co m /Joan picture mine the need for referenda. It tutions is in flux. The rash of century’s terrible bloodshed. In contemporary nation-states. The that were once impenetrable and In today’s Europe, civic might even put a damper on secession-minded movements power, ethnic nationalists inevita- EU would be impossible with- militarized are today permeable nationalism predominates over Europe’s resurgent ethnic nation- underscores the necessity that the bly pursue authoritarian courses out it; indeed, the EU’s suprana- and peaceful, open to the free flow ethnic nationalism: A building in alism. Many of the far right par- Brussels community change more at home and aggressive, expan- tional essence is the antithesis of of goods, people and ideas. Barcelona flies the “Senyeras” ties that have made strong gains at flag of Catalonia and the region's profoundly and rapidly. sionist policies abroad, like those the narrow, defensive, ethnically By interconnecting Europe’s “Esteladas” independence the ballot boxes in recent years – First, let’s take a look at nation- that paved way for the century’s defined polity. Our nation-states nation-states through trade, cul- flag on Nov. 9, the day of the in Hungary, France, Italy, Roma- alism itself: Modern nationalism world wars. may have labels and majori- tural programs, economic policies, symbolic ballot on whether to nia, Belgium and recently even took two routes: the ethnic and Civic nationalism is another ties associated with one people political priorities and the euro, break away from Spain. Germany – cloak their jingoist, the civic varieties. story. Its members are bound (France, the French; Germany, the individual European countries racist agendas in the jargon of The ethnic nation, on the one by common values and politi- Germans, and so forth) but this look altogether different than they regions” – a favorite EU buzz- self-determination. hand, is infused with Romantic cal ideas, not biological or other doesn’t automatically manufac- did in the first half of the 20th word – that has been at the heart The critical lessons that Europe’s notions of seamless racial com- pseudo-scientific characteristics. ture inequality or foster discrimi- century. National sovereignty of the European project since the political elite would do well to munities bound by blood, territory Civic nationalists – one thinks at nation. One can be proud to be has become more diffuse, with a beginning. take away from Scotland and Cat- and destiny. In the world of ethnic once of John Stuart Mill – espouse German or French and still be a considerable proportion of policy In practice, it means imaginative alonia should be the same as the nations, one nation is always supe- tolerance, equality and individual good, civic-minded democrat and being set by the EU, as well as forms of autonomy and federa- ones that invigorated European rior and destined to rule over rights. The civic nationalist may EU enthusiast. regionally and locally. tion, also called “home rule,” as integration from the beginning: territory as well as other peoples. be proud of his nation, but not at Until now, EU membership and In theory, EU membership well as cross-border governance more democracy, fewer borders. As intellectuals such as the the expense of other nations that the processes of European integra- implies that power within national where these “regions” straddle There’s a middle road between British historian Eric Hobsbawm have similar legal rights. tion have worked to transform the states is decentralized, with ever state lines. But while the EU vig- out-and-out separatism and rigid and German philosopher Hannah In today’s Europe, civic national- nature of the European nation- more decisions being made at the orously promotes regional gov- centralized states, even if finding Arendt argued, the nativist ethnic ism is, for the most part, the order state, making it more civic and less local, rather than the national ernance, it often fails to live by it will be time-consuming and nation was at the root of the 20th of the day and the foundation of ethnic. In most of Europe, borders level. This is the “Europe of its own principles and has over contentious. n 14-11-14_144_ID211_eAz_Auckland_AtlantGTAsiaPacificTimes_290x260_IsoNewspaper_RZ02gp_bp

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14-11-14_144_ID211_eAz_Auckland_AtlantGTAsiaPacificTimes_290x260_IsoNewspaper_RZ02gp_bp.indd 1 14.11.14 15:53 November 2014 9 The Mazar Consulting Group In Afghanistan, the Bundeswehr will be doing more advising than fighting. Very few troops will ever leave the last German base in the north By Eric Chauvistré

he Black Hawks that dier General Harald Gante. He touch down at the is the commander of the interna- German base Camp tional force in Northern Afghan- Marmal in North istan of which Germany is the TAfghanistan look as if they lead nation. The Afghan troops, had been in combat more than Gante explained, no longer need once. When the aging US Army to be assisted in combat opera- H ossaini alliance/ AP P hoto/Massoud picture helicopters approach the dusty tions. Instead, they needed advice combat army; 55 German soldiers will be left by the end of the year mechanized infantry troops from German soldiers participate in a tarmac in Mazar-i-Sharif, they in areas such as logistics, IT and lost their lives. – 600 at Camp Marmal, 200 at Munster. Their task is to show memorial ceremony during a visit might be expected to drop off personnel management. „It is Even though the ISAF mission allied headquarters in Kabul. By presence in those areas nearby by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Camp Marmal in an exhausted platoon. Instead, about observing processes within is due to end on Dec. 31, 2014, the end of 2015, Nato intends the base which could be used as Mazar-i Sharif on Nov. 7. when the doors open, only the Afghan army from the out- German troops will stay in Mazar- to concentrate all troops in the launch sites for rocket attacks lightly-armed officers in dry and side and reacting when deficits are i-Sharif for another year as part of capital. If all goes to plan, the Ger- against the camp. Handing over strikes. German aid workers, who clean uniforms get out of the identified,“ said Gante – sound- man-run base in Mazar-i-Sharif the QRF to Georgian troops continue to work in Kunduz, had choppers. ing in fact more like a business UZBEKISTAN Tajikistan will then be given up completely. would leave Germany – apart to leave the city. The officers are part of a fifty- consultant than the experienced To be able to run and secure the from an unknown but reportedly Should situations like the one Turkmenistan man multinational team of advis- soldier he is. Kunduz camp with a force of this size, the modest number of soldiers from in Kunduz reoccur, the wisdom ers returning from their daily mis- The new focus on advis- Mazar-i-Sharif Bundeswehr is increasingly depen- the German Special Forces Com- of focusing on consulting without sion to a nearby camp of the ing – in line with Nato policy dent not only on traditional allies mand KSK – with no genuine maintaining a substantial combat Afghan National Army. Staff – is yet another strategic twist in Kabul but also on non-Nato member combat troops on the ground. force may indeed be questioned. officers from Germany, the Neth- the 13-year history of German a FGH a nista n states like Mongolia and Armenia. Not everybody here feels com- And even the current roadmap erlands, Latvia and various other involvement in Afghanistan. It was To compensate for the dramatic fortable about that. Some of the for Nato withdrawal may come European states fly over in the shortly before Christmas Eve 2001 reductions, the Bundeswehr is current QRF soldiers served in up for debate. At a closed session Iran morning, meet with their respec- when the Bundestag first approved Pakistan now going even further. “Certain Kunduz on their previous tours of the Bundestag foreign affairs tive counterparts, offer advice, German participation in the Inter- 300 km Map: pavalena/fotolia tasks, including for example the and point out how the situation committee in October, Chancel- discuss future projects – and, after national Security Assistance Force Quick Reaction Force, may soon slowly but steadily deteriorated lor Angela Merkel seemed to cast lunch, board the helicopters for (ISAF). What started as a six- what will then be called Resolute no longer be assumed by German after the Germans pulled out a doubt on whether there would the ten-minute flight back. From months low-profile mission with Support Mission or RSM. Only forces”, said Brigadier General year ago. There was heavy fight- be a complete withdrawal of the beginning of 2015, teams a mandate limited to the capital 12,000 international troops are to Gante. In fact, Georgian troops ing at the outskirts of the city this Nato troops from Afghanistan like this one will be at the core Kabul was to become the longest, remain in Afghanistan under the are due to take over its tasks at the August. Command posts built by by the end of 2016. Referring to of the German mission here at most comprehensive and deadliest new mandate – a small contingent beginning of next year. the Germans at the time report- developments in Syria and Iraq, Camp Marmal, the last remaining mission of the Bundeswehr. It sig- compared to the roughly 120,000 The Quick Reaction Force is edly came under attack. And the Merkel reportedly announced Bundeswehr base in Afghanistan. naled a historic turning point for that were once deployed here. the last remaining combat unit in Afghan army and police were only that she would approach the US “You have to see it like the work the German military. In Afghani- Of the once 5,000 German the camp – a highly mobile force, able to push back the insurgents government again and talk about of a consulting firm,” said Briga- stan the Bundeswehr became a troops in Afghanistan, only 800 currently staffed by Bundeswehr with the help of multiple US air- a new time line. n WE MAKE

Nthakheni NemadodziPOWER works at Bilfinger in Pretoria, South Africa. She is an expert in the manufacture of power plant components including pressure parts, pipes and headers. Bilfinger delivers comprehen- sive solutions for the modernization, efficiency enhancement and life-time extension of power plants. We ensure the energy-producing industry has ample power. www.bilfinger.com WORK 10 November 2014

Wind farm in Tanger, Morocco.

picture alliance/dpa/Desertec Foundation ermans are usually a sharply expanding economy. critical of technologi- The DII was only meant to run cal visions – so few for five years anyway, he said. The investment projects No desert electricity company carried out feasibility areG applauded and approved in studies in that period, sought the Germany as heartily as the solar necessary political background power enterprise Desertec. When and looked for potential locations it began five years ago, commen- for Europe for power plants. tators employed every superlative “The DII did all that,” said to describe what they supposed Huber. In addition, a number of would be the answer to all of Planned gigantic solar power stations in North Africa will not be built individual plans got started, such Europe’s energy problems. The as Desertec focuses on smaller projects | By Wolfgang Mulke as a 300 megawatt photovoltaic idea still sounds simple – produce plant in Algeria. More than 70 large amounts of power where the plans are currently being carried sun usually shines and the wind Renewable Energy out, according to the DII. By the blows strong, in the desert regions Project Map end of the decade, a capacity of 35 of north Africa, and transport it gigawatts will be on line. Projects in operation or under via long power lines to the mar- Even though the ambitions have Tunisia development in the kets of Europe’s industrialized Middle East and North Africa been mightily scaled down, the nations. Morocco Desertec Foundation continues This visionary plan was devel- 1,357 to propound the desert power oped for the Desertec Foundation idea. But it is now about many by a group including German phys- Capacity of Libya Egypt small projects instead of an Afro- icist Gerhard Knies, Germany’s RE projects European electricity union. Saudi Arabia national aeronautics and space in operation Historic and forecasted That idea faced resistance from Mauritania Algeria today (in renewable energy project 3,999 research center, and members of UAE megawatts) build-up (in megawatts) 3,055 people on both continents. “Afri- the Club of Rome. The Founda- cans were afraid of exploitation tion aims to supply the world with 1,571 and a new colonization, Europe- 1,226 renewable energies from desert 171 952 1,031 ans of terrorism and dictators,” PV (Photovoltaics) Wind 92 regions. The Desertec Industrial 73 236 said Huber. By the time these CSP (Concentrated solar power) Initiative (DII) was quick to grow Wind PV CSP 2000 ’05 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14f ’15f objections were laid to rest, far Source: Desertec Industrial Initiative alongside it, with up to 50 compa- more time had passed than origi- nies involved at its peak. meant to produce 15 percent of Greenpeace and the Club of Rome sold off their solar technology company ACWA. The DII will nally thought, he said. Germany’s most important Europe’s energy needs by 2050. predicted that building these divisions. On top of that came the provide consultancy services for Therefore, the Foundation’s companies were on board. Power But that would have required clean power plants would create political uncertainty in the region the parent companies. To the main task now is raising aware- utilities RWE and E.on, Siemens massive investment. DII experts 240,000 new jobs and value of €2 and the boom in renewables in media, this decision meant that ness around the world. “Poli- and Bosch, construction firm estimated that solar power plants trillion for the German economy Germany – the development of Desertec was finished, the desert tics, business and civil society Bilfinger, even Munich Re and and high-tension power lines over by the middle of the century. the market there cast doubt on the dream over. all have to recognize that deserts Deutsche Bank joined the initia- the Mediterranean would cost But then the project’s commer- project in the view of some of the But that is not neccessarily the are their wealth,” Huber said, tive. “It’s a success story,” says around €400 billion. The lure cial backers began to pull out. companies involved. case. “Much of this is a percep- pointing out that in countries like Foundation chairman Andreas of lucrative contracts appears to Observers cite a number of rea- In October Munich Re – one tion problem,” DII spokesman Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt Huber. “For the first time, indus- have been one of the things that sons for this. Among the partners of the driving forces behind the Klaus Schmidtke admitted. He and Tunisia, this awareness has trial enterprises got together pulled in the corporations. were competing companies, and DII – dropped out. Now the only says it is all about providing elec- grown. With that support, com- behind the vision of an NGO.” Several studies supported the there were very different ideas partners left are energy provider tricity in the North African and panies are returning and investing The generators in the Middle project’s feasibility at first. In about business policy. Siemens RWE, Chinese network provider Middle East countries themselves, in power plants, the chairman East andDruck_Anzeige_AtlanticTimes_Voting.pdf North Africa were the year of 1 its 12.11.14 founding, 13:56 both and Bosch pulled out because they State Grid and the Saudi energy where demand has increased with said, all around the world. n

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ew had reckoned with ern to eastern Europe, country the development: At the by country. Russian gas doesn’t close of 2014, the price of figure at all in Spain, in Germany petroleum is more or less How reliable is the flow of gas and Italy it has a 36 percent share from Russia to Europe? atF the same levels as ten years ago Gas distribution stations of the market, in Austria 60 per- – at between $70 (€56) and $80 in western Siberia. cent and in the Baltic States and per barrel. Before the financial Finland, 90 to 100 percent. crisis, the barrel price was almost “It is expensive and arduous twice as high at $147. Now the to replace oil and gas imports global demand for oil is growing, from Russia with supplies from but the price is going down. other sources to any significant Primarily this is because the degree,” said SWP expert West- supply of crude oil is increasing, phal. This would initially require mainly due to the increased use of the construction of new pipelines fracking in the US, but more oil is with protracted negotiations and also coming from Libya and Iraq. planning processes. And once a In order to shore up its market new pipeline such as the Tanap share against the competition, project to Azerbaijan is completed Saudi Arabia recently lowered in 2019, it raises another ques- its prices. tion: Is Europe not jumping out Motorists, homeowners and of the frying pan and into the tenants are happy about falling fire? Are we not just swapping energy costs. But businesses and one authoritarian supply country politicians basing their strategies for another that is organized in on rising energy costs are being a similar fashion and one that X press/ VISU M thrown off-kilter. This is particu- is also located in a crisis region? larly the case for the European P hoto Aside from Russia, the world’s Union, which promotes the pro- large conventional gas reserves duction of renewable wind and are located in Turkmenistan, solar energy and underlines the Qatar, Iran, Libya and Algeria importance of climate protection. Renewables or Russia – none of them unconditionally What’s the point of expensive attractive cooperation partners. efforts to overhaul the energy Europe needs to coordinate its energy policy but can’t even agree But by working together with system, many are asking, when these nations, Europe could at contrary to all expectations, fossil on the key targets of an overhaul | By Hannes Koch least manage to slightly scale fuel is not getting more expensive, down Russia’s influence on energy but basically cheaper again? “The oil is another uncertainty factor coal, increasing independence the share of clean resources and being compelled to make more supply. In addition, fracking gas low price of oil is hampering that European energy politicians from unreliable external suppli- energy efficiency by 27 percent. concerted efforts. This means it and oil from North America rep- the necessary reconfiguration and would therefore rather do with- ers plus containment of dangerous SWP economist Westphal nev- is feasible that the target will be resents a new reliable source of reorientation of European energy out. climate change. ertheless remarks: “Renewable missed and the EU will pass up on fossil energy. It is however not yet policy,” said Kirsten Westphal of To maintain supply security at Secondly, the focus is also on energies should be afforded a the chance to acquire the decisive clear how abundant these sources the German Institute for Interna- acceptable prices, the new EU diversifying supply channels for greater status. In this respect, the key to solving its energy problems. might be for Europe in the future. tional and Security Affairs (SWP) Commission under Jean-Claude fossil energy sources to reduce EU Commission program to 2030 In the light of these consid- The third European reform in Berlin, which advises the gov- Juncker is currently underlin- dependence on Russia. And is a step backwards. It’s leading erations it also appears equally approach – the energy union – is ernment. ing three directions for reform. thirdly, the Commission aims to to less European integration and questionable whether the diver- also on shaky ground. The EU The European policy stance Firstly, the plan is to increase improve the EU’s internal energy moving further away from a coor- sification goal is realistic. Europe Commission has identified dozens on energy is in any case a con- energy production from clean market, what’s known as the dinated policy.” has in the meantime established of inefficient weak spots: oppor- tentious issue. It is a laborious sources. “I’d like Europe to be energy union, to make it easier At first glance the renewables a considerable dependence on tunities for the better integra- process to find compromises the global number one in renew- for the 28 member nations to target of 27 percent sounds good, Russia. Also as part of an attempt tion of energy grids still primarily between the German preference ables,” said Juncker in his keynote support one another. But all three but governments have not been to make itself more self-sufficient functioning on a national level. for renewables, the Polish for speech to the European parlia- goals are disputed. able to agree on concrete tar- with regard to suppliers in the There has been little evidence of coal, and the French and British ment on July 15. With regard to regenerative gets for each individual member Middle East in the wake of the any major rapid progress in this for nuclear power. Then, in view This approach is backed up energy sources, the latest resolu- nation. What should Poland’s oil crises of the 1970s, the EU is regard. The aim is to have 15 of the civil war in the Ukraine, by the assumption that a high tions passed by the 28 govern- target be, for example, and what now reliant on Russian pipelines. percent of electric power moving there is also the pressing ques- number of wind and solar power ments appear to be far-reaching about France? This question More than a third of its entire across borders by 2030. If change tion of energy security: Should plants has several immediate and rigorous. By 2030, EU mem- remains open. gas and oil requirement is supplied remains at this pace, the supposed Europe not be making itself less advantages in the long term: bers aim to reduce greenhouse While Germany has already hit by Gazprom and other Moscow EU energy policy overhaul will dependent on gas and oil supplies lower production costs than in gas emissions by 40 percent on the 27 percent target with green entities. The dependence increases have more of a theoretical than a from Russia? The falling price of fossil systems with oil, gas and 1990 figures, as well as increase electricity, other nations are not as you move across from west- practical relevance. n

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Is TTIP a Trojan Horse? No, says EU Member of Parliament Elmar Brok, we need the trade agreement.

Caro Fotoagentur GmbH/teich he EU and US are each and the EU fail to set the world’s United States, the EU is trying to ously. Wherever standards really other’s closest part- standards, China will do so in use this agreement to dominate do diverge, and harmonization or ners, both economi- their place. However, if the EU world trade. Yet it’s interesting mutual recognition proves impos- cally and politically. ‘We need and US use this unique opportu- to note that more economy-based sible, negotiations in that area TYet our partnership needs more nity, they will succeed in imposing voices are seeing it in their own cease. than continuity to thrive. The global economic rules based on interests to orient themselves on We want TTIP, but not at any TTIP free trade pact is a unique their own model of democracy European-American standards, price. The transatlantic partners opportunity of strategic dimen- and the market economy. thereby strengthening the protec- are therefore in agreement that sions, both economic and geo- this free This means in no way that TTIP tion of jobs, the environment and standards can be mutually recog- political. Together, the EU and is a defensive project. On the con- consumer protection in China. nized only when the other side’s US account for 57 percent of trary, TTIP must remain open to The TTIP pact could therefore standard demonstrably provides global GDP with 11 percent of new members. The trade pact is provide impulses for international a similar level of protection for the world’s population. being negotiated first between just cooperation on technical guide- consumers and the environment. Our mutual economic clout trade pact’ Washington and Brussels. In the lines and norms. The aim is to go There is no give or take on this permits us to maintain high stan- medium term, however, extending beyond a mere free-trade pact. point and it is not a subject for dards, in goods and services, If the EU and US don’t set the standards, TTIP to the NAFTA region would Overall this is a matter of going negotiation. social welfare and consumer pro- make very good sense. past a normal free trade agree- tection. Yet we also face global China will | By Elmar Brok This seems all the more appar- ment to forge the greater multi- n competition. If we fail to cooper- ent as the EU already has a free lateral trade system and set the ate, we cannot hope to defend our Yet with a common economic the EU, unlike the rising emerging trade agreement with Mexico and global rule book. Elmar Brok is a Member of prosperity in the world. area with mutual standards, we economies, will no longer be a is about to conclude another one Moreover, neither of the two the European Parliament This is why the EU and US must could save €130 billion every defining force in the world. Only with Canada. European states sides wants to see these standards and chairman stand together with equal partners year. Eliminating tariff- and non- together with the US will it be such as Norway and Switzerland diminished. The original regula- of its Committee for common values such as the tariff trade barriers would add able to set global standards for are also welcome to join the pact. tions are being taken very seri- on Foreign Affairs. dignity of all people and all our 1 percent to our annual GDP competition, investment and the Here, too, the main emphasis common interests. The free trade growth, a total of €119 billion. protection of intellectual property would be to set standards that agreement would help strengthen The pact is a cost-free economic in the 21st century. would later be reflected in other Waning approval our position. In association with package for more growth, and Common standards lead not treaties. TTIP could therefore Germans’ approval of the planned TTIP free trade agreement the US, we Europeans want to more and better jobs. Estimates only to greater choice of prod- become the basis for more agree- between the EU and the US is waning. An Emnid Institute survey take part in shaping the global for the pact’s job creation effects ucts for consumers and to lower ments with other states. commissioned by the consumer advocate group Foodwatch found economy in the 21st century, in Europe stretch up to 1.3 mil- production costs. Mutual recogni- TTIP is also being regarded in that 48 percent of the approximately 1,000 people interviewed instead of leaving the task to lion. That would be up to 5 per- tion, for example, of testing cer- most emerging economies as an considered the pact “a good thing.” 32 percent expressed opposi- other actors such as China. cent of the 26 million people tification in the auto making and incentive to push reforms and tion and 2 percent were undecided. 12 percent did not provide an The economic aspect of TTIP currently unemployed in the pharmaceutical industries would attain higher standards autono- answer. Last February 55 percent expressed approval of TTIP, can be summarized in just a few European Union. bring substantial cost savings. mously. Chinese commentators while 25 percent said the planned pact was “a bad thing.” words: growth, jobs, and prosper- Yet we must regard TTIP not Yet this is also a matter of pre- may remark that TTIP is directed However, 85 percent of those surveyed said that increased trade ity. Already now, the transatlantic only according to its economic, serving the West’s position in a mainly against China and other by Germany with other countries was either very good or good economic space is the best inte- but also its domestic political and world increasingly influenced by BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India, for the country. grated one in the world. geopolitical aspects. In the future emerging economies. If the US China), and that together with the Essential partners

he transatlantic eco- “low corporate taxes” in these nomic space consisting countries, thanks especially to the of the European Union External trade 2013 holding companies that allowed and the US generates In $bn them to lower their tax burdens. aboutT 47 percent of global GDP That could change, as politi- and some 60 percent of all foreign German imports EU cians on both sides of the Atlantic direct investment. Europe is the 48.5 have been aiming to close known United States’ most important EU imports Germany tax loopholes such as the “Double market. One quarter of all US 195.7 Irish with a Dutch Sandwich.” exports went to the European US Doing so, however, would require Union in 2013, totaling goods EU exports “cooperation at the international and services worth $584 billion. 287.7 level,” the GTAI says. A stunning 56 percent of the total German exports 88.4 In the opposite direction the US $4.7 trillion of US global direct remains Europe’s biggest trade investment is in EU states, or partner. In 2013 the EU sold $2.6 trillion. These figures were goods and services worth €288 recently presented by the Ger- US direct investment billion ($359 billion) – €88 bil- many Trade & Invest (GTAI) in Europe lion from Germany alone – and agency, which is supported by US direct investment in the EU according to sector made purchases worth 196 bil- In $bn 2010 – 3rd quarter 2013 in $bn € Germany’s Economics Ministry. lion (Germany: €96 billion). The 98 percent of the US companies All sectors Manufacturing Other Holdings (non-bank) Europe total 740.3 US is Germany’s second biggest exporting to the EU are small and export market after France and Netherlands 217.6 midsized enterprises with fewer EU 28 169.2 25.5 26.3 117.7 its number four source of imports. than 500 employees, but these Netherlands 57.6 4.9 0.3 52.4 Luxembourg 160.6 The sum of foreign direct invest- account for only a third of the ment also rose in the US in 2013. UK 145.4 total export volume. Multina- Luxembourg 42.8 1.3 -0.2 41.7 German companies have contin- tional corporations account for Ireland 29.6 2.2 16.5 10.9 Ireland 92.0 ued the trend in the current year, the remainder. investing in more than 50 acquisi- Switzerland 32.2 While southern European coun- Switzerland 5.3 4.0 4.5 -3.2 tions worth $64.5 billion, accord- tries became less attractive to Germany -0.9 2.1 -1.1 -1.9 Germany 19.7 ing to Thomson Reuters. In 2013 investors during the crisis years, that figure was only $2.8 billion. France 10.2 Ireland, Luxembourg and the Other 34.8 10.7 6.3 17.8 Reasons for the investment leap Netherlands raised their foreign Other 62.6 include low interest rates, stron- investment volume. The main rea- ger US economic growth and the Source: Germany Trade and Invest sons, according to GTAI, were the shale gas boom. n

14 November 2014

The Security Times • Challenges

Reflecting on data security: The Cyber Security Summit in Bonn hosted by Deutsche Telekom and the Munich Security Conference in Bonn.

Deutsche Telekom AG/thomas ollendorf t has long been considered Google – now know much more based discussion is needed to find a sign of weakness to talk than governments do about mil- ways for society to deal with the about one’s own vulnerabil- lions of peoples’ activities online. dilemma. “It is not enough for ity. But Deutsche Telekom Doubling down Höttges also slammed Google – Google to say “the data belongs ICEO Timotheus Höttges is pre- and not only because its business to us.” pared to do so to demonstrate represents a massive offensive But most executives are facing the dangers that IT networks against classic telecom providers. very practical problems. Firstly, face. And because he has made The man who portrays himself as the complex question of which it his job to spearhead the fight on data security a committed European in this dis- system really is secure. Sec- against data thieves, hackers and cussion is well aware that infor- ondly, how to do business across spies. Telekom estimates there Can transatlantic treaties stop data theft, hackers and spies? mation is becoming the world’s national borders and in differing are around one million attacks most important raw material – cultures and legal systems? on its network – every day. Two By Varinia Bernau and that the outlook is bleak for Isolation is not the answer – years ago the number was only Europe if a US monopoly has its that much became clear at the 300,000, Höttges said. “Hackers hands on the entire globe’s data Cyber Security Summit. Nor is it work in silence, they work fast, riches. possible without the Americans and they are highly dangerous,” It is clear – chiefly due to revela- – whether as customers, business he warns. tions by former NSA contractor partners or as Internet technology In early November, business Edward Snowden – that Google and software providers. and political leaders met for the has handed over more of this data Siegfried Russwurm, Siemens’ third year running at the invita- to US authorities than the com- chief technology executive, says tion of Deutsche Telekom and pany can be comfortable with. his company conducts just half the Munich Security Conference It is not clear to what degree this its business within the Schengen (MSC) to discuss the most urgent cooperation was voluntary. Nor area, the border-free zone within issues in digital security. The is it clear how greatly users’ faith the EU. Therefore, the idea of Cyber Security Summit, initiated in the Internet has been shaken. keeping all its data traffic within by Deutsche Telekom and Wolf- Certainly, Google is doing all it Schengen – and therefore safe gang Ischinger, the chairman of the can to mitigate the loss of trust – from access by US secret services MSC, has almost become a peace even adding automatic encoding – is “not exactly ideal, to put conference for the virtual world. to its current operating system. it politely.” Russwurm pointed However, in the debates which It is an act of self-defense – out that US jurisdiction is the take place, the description of against the authorities, which are one under which sooner or later increasing and ever more aggres- considered to be wildly overzeal- everyone has to do business – a

sive attacks on one side and the I tter m ann / N orbert AG ous. But what does it mean for a sentiment supported by repre- perplexed search for an effective society to prize encoding as the sentatives of other German blue “So far, we’re just trying to contain the damage.” Elmar Thevessen (left), deputy editor-in-chief m T eleko response on the other, it is clear of ZDF public television, with Siemens board member Siegfried Russwurm and Allianz ultimate weapon against hackers – chip companies. “Do we like it? that there is a long way to go board member Christof Mascher at the 3rd Cyber Security Summit. if a private enterprise holds the key No. Will we continue to do it? Of before any peace deal is signed. D eutsche to all data? Many of the delegates course – the market is simply too “So far, we are just trying to con- Institute survey showed that nine according to market analysts will expressed his doubts that the con- at the Cyber Security Summit felt important.” tain the damage. There is no peace out of ten German businesses vastly increase productivity – the flicts of the future can be solved that there had been too little dis- Russwurm thinks the only pos- plan, no human rights charter for have registered attacks on their threat of cyberattack will rise using the mechanisms of the past. cussion on this issue. “Companies sible answer to the dilemma rests the digital world,” is the alarm- IT systems. The Center for Stra- further. He criticized the lack of insti- operating globally have become in transatlantic treaties – in tough ing conclusion drawn by Elmar tegic and International Studies That was one reason why Hött- tutions integrating emerging IT a channel for national security negotiations like those currently Thevessen, security commentator (CSIS) puts the damage from such ges, in his opening address to the powers such as China and India. interests, but also their victim,” underway over the free-trade for the public broadcaster ZDF. attacks worldwide at $575 billion conference, called for “a kind of He also expressed concern at said Thevessen. deal TTIP. “I think it is more The threat of cyberattack has last year alone. NATO for data security.” Karl- what he described as a “transition Yet because it is companies and important to discuss IT standards grown in direct proportion to And when cities and factories Theodor zu Guttenberg, former from government to Googlement” not states that drive the develop- than to talk about whether a car the shift of everyday activities become completely connected in German defense minister and now – the fact that private enterprises, ment of new technologies as well indicator should blink red or to the Internet. An Allensbach an Internet of things – which a technology security consultant, particularly Google but not only as the streams of data, a broad- yellow.” n

n its 40th birthday, the embrace of the principles of camps. This was a system based “It definitely is of strategic the Aspen Institute a free, social market economy. on total transparency and of the importance that America and Germany wanted Below is an excerpt from Döpf- Big data: total use and misuse of data. And Germany stick together because to give something ner’s acceptance speech: I think this trauma explains why we are facing common challenges. Oaway: for the first time, the there is more German and Euro- China is a superpower that is basi- German branch of the organiza- “Big Data is one of the very few privacy is a must pean sensitivity about it. cally trying to change the world tion handed out its Shepard Stone examples where Europe may be “We cherish and applaud all based on the principle of a non- Award for Outstanding Trans- ahead of America when it comes advantages of a digitization of democratic system. Russia is a atlantic Leadership. The prize is to the sensitivity about the use and society that is based on data, but force that is in a way trying to named after the founding director misuse of data. When it comes to we have to have this discussion re-establish its former geostrategic of the Aspen Institute Germany. the whole discussion about total about the limits as well. And I zone of influence, a power policy It was awarded to Matthias Döp- transparency. take a bet today that in five to that is deeply rooted in the 19th fner (51, below), the chairman of “It has to be understood that seven years there will be a totally century. And then of course the the media group Axel Springer, the Americans have been influ- different discussion in the United whole Middle-East: Syria, Libya, publisher of the German daily Die enced by the iconic trauma of States as well. the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Welt and the popular tabloid Bild. 9/11 whereas the Europeans have “I cannot imagine that a country ISIS shows that we are subject to a been influenced by the iconic trau- and a people that to me are much common threat: Islamist terrorism. At a ceremony in the atrium of mas of the Stasi and even more like the lighthouse of freedom, a And that we have to stick together the Deutsche Bank in Berlin on importantly by the trauma of the society that is based and founded in order to prevail with our ideas Oct. 9, former US Ambassador Nazis and the Holocaust. And on the idea of freedom and indi- of freedom and democracy. to Germany Philip Murphy paid the Holocaust for example was a vidualism, will and can accept in “It is very simple: The idea of the tribute to Döpfner. In his speech system that was based on the idea the long run that there is no privacy Free West, of democracy, of free- before 150 invited guests from of total transparency. Because of because everything is shared with dom and human rights is simply politics, culture and commerce, total control and transparency, everybody. And I think the prin- the better concept. In that spirit, he called the Springer boss “my the Nazis knew who was a Jew, ciple and the assumption that if we should be proud and simply hero,” saying he actively promotes the Nazis knew where Jews were you have nothing to hide, you have acknowledge that we are the good the transatlantic alliance, steadfast living, the Nazis knew at what nothing to fear, is one of the worst guys. In that spirit we should work support of the state of Israel, the time they could pick up the Jews and most terrible principles. That is together because we need a strong

further unification of Europe, and and put them in the concentration K ruppa C hristian a principle of a totalitarian system. transatlantic alliance.” n November 2014 15 Keeping tabsThe Security Times • Challenges on big data The rough road to EU digital rights reform By Ulrich Hottelet hose hoping to take mission presented its draft reform. Interior Ministry has been making out a loan in the future Then the European Parliament all the right noises in public, but would do well to think had its turn, and in time pre- behind closed doors it has con- carefully about what sented more than 3,000 proposed tinually put the brakes on EU data theyT post on social networks and amendments. The Brussels lobby protection reform.” how often. Because big data can machine, including US IT giants Parliamentary state secretary analyze and rate them – a rating like Google and Facebook, was at the Interior Ministry, Günter which may later serve as a basis running full steam. Krings (CDU) countered: “Thor- for banks to decide whether they Thanks to the efficient lead- oughness is more important than grant a loan or not. ership of Jan Philipp Albrecht, speed in these negotiations.” That kind of profiling by service deputy chairman of the Commit- Unlike the earlier guidelines, providers and the banks them- tee on Civil Liberties, Justice and the new regulations will not selves is likely to expand. But it Home Affairs (LIBE), the par- allow loopholes to be exploited may be banned under EU data liament finally overwhelmingly by national governments. Users protection reforms if EU institu- agreed on a text in March. Under must be protected from the tions can agree on tough enough this draft, breaches of the law ever-expanding data mining by legislation. will be expensive for offending Google, Facebook, Apple and Business and policymakers companies. Fines can run as high Amazon, Krings said. hope to pass EU data protection a 5 percent of a company’s sales Germany’s chief negotiator at reforms soon. There are major worldwide. the Council of Ministers, Interior hopes for greater legal certainty Now it’s the turn of the Coun- Ministry official Rainer Stentzel, and for simpler, clearer regulation cil of Ministers. But negotiations rejects allegations of putting the of competition and a uniformly between governments are prov- brakes on an agreement: “That high standard like that of Germa- ing slow and difficult. In 2013, is politically motivated. They ny’s Federal Data Protection Law. 500 reservations against the draft wanted Germany to applaud It’s felt that there is no other way were registered in the council. and support the Commission.” to regain consumers’ faith in the Germany’s position is considered Stentzel says the main reasons safety of their data. That, in turn, decisive in this most comprehen- for the delay are the “hellishly is essential for online business. sive law in the history of the EU. complex material,” the enormous Simon Belcher/agefotostock/Avenue Images German and European IT “Germany can tip the balance. If economic and legal significance of companies are hoping that more Germany stops blocking it, then the reform, and its vast reach – One bone of contention which Google, Deutsche Telekom and be decided on later by the courts effective data protection will give we’ll have a new data protection from the corner bakery to Google was fought over for six months is SAP are all hoping that in the and supervisory authorities. them the edge over their US com- law,” said the former European to the relationship between the the one-stop-shop model, which future, they will be able to clarify For key matters affecting the petitors. The rules would apply to Commissioner for Justice Viviane citizen and the state. would allow both companies and within three months whether a state, German Interior Minister all companies which offer their Reding. There is disagreement, for private citizens to turn to their new product meets data protec- Thomas de Maizière has proposed services in Europe even if they are According to an analysis by instance, over how heavily data local data protection authority tion provisions. Data-protection a compromise escape clause. He based outside the EU. the data protection body Euro- protection should be weighted for qualified answers if they have activists fear that companies will all said it would have to provide But the regulations have run pean Digital Rights (EDRi), the against freedom of expression – enquiries or complaints. Cur- base themselves in places where the enough leeway for Germany to into trouble. They are meant to German delegation put in as an issue brought to prominence rently, that information must be supervisory authorities are weakest. set its own higher standards, for replace antiquated 1995 guide- many annotations and suggested by the European Court of Jus- sought from the headquarters of Given the many controversies instance in the fields of health, lines, which EU member states amendments as all the other dele- tice’s decision against Google that the relevant company. Big enter- and the complexity of the mate- pensions, taxes and employment. have applied very differently in gations put together. The Green’s there is a “right to be forgotten.” prises in particular are keen to rial, hopes of greater legal cer- A final agreement is expected in national laws. internet policy spokesman in the There is also squabbling over the avoid having to deal with the data tainty may be dashed. Some as yet Brussels next year. German and In 2012 – 18 months behind German parliament, Konstantin degree to which profiling should protection officials of all 28 EU undefined legal terms and com- other European businesses will schedule – the European Com- von Notz, had sharp words: “The be restricted. member states. promise formulations may have to simply have to wait that long. n

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