NATO’s Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic Era F. Stephen Larrabee Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited R Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-C-96-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Larrabee, F. Stephen. NATO’s Eastern agenda in a new strategic era / F. Stephen Larrabee. p. cm. “MR-1744.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3467-7 (pbk.) 1. North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Military policy. 2. Former communist countries—Military relations—Europe. 3. Europe—Military relations—Former communist countries. 4. United States—Military policy. 5. World politics—21st century. I. Title. UA646.8.L37 2003 355'.031'0918210947—dc22 2003017570 Cover photo courtesy of NATO photos, www.nato.int. Press Point between President Vaclav Havel (right) and NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson (left) at the Prague Castle. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE As NATO expands to the East, it faces an evolving security environ- ment and potential security dilemmas. This study focuses on four critical areas: Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic region, Ukraine, and Russia. Taken together, these regions represent the core of NATO’s “Eastern agenda.” The security dilemmas and challenges are examined within the context of the changing environment since September 11, 2001, and NATO’s broader transformation. The study is part of a larger project on the changing strategic envi- ronment in and around Europe and its implications for the United States and NATO. The project, sponsored by the Commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe, and by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Headquarters, United States Air Force, was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND’s Project AIR FORCE. This report should be of interest to policymakers and specialists concerned with NATO policy and European security. Research was completed in May 2003. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of RAND, is the Air Force feder- ally funded research and development center for studies and analy- ses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readi- ness, and support of current and future air and space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force iii iv NATO’s Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic Era Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... ix Summary ....................................... xi Acknowledgments................................. xxi Chapter One NATO’S EASTERN AGENDA IN A NEW STRATEGIC ERA . 1 The Road to Prague ............................. 2 NATO’s Post-Prague Agenda in the East .............. 3 The Changing Strategic Context .................... 7 Focus of This Study ............................. 9 Chapter Two CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE ................. 11 Democratic Consolidation ....................... 12 The Waning Nationalist Temptation ................ 15 A Generational Change of Leadership ............... 18 The Changing Party Landscape .................... 19 Military Integration and Reform ................... 22 Civil-Military Relations .......................... 26 The Impact of the Kosovo Conflict .................. 27 The Impact of September 11 ...................... 30 Central Europe and European Integration ............ 32 Central Europe and ESDP ........................ 35 Regional Cooperation ........................... 37 Germany’s New Zwang Nach Osten ................. 38 Poland’s Growing Regional Role ................... 41 v vi NATO’s Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic Era The Second Round of Enlargement ................. 44 The “New Europe” and the New NATO .............. 46 The Future of the Vilnius Group .................... 48 The Western Balkans ............................ 50 Chapter Three BALTIC SECURITY ............................. 51 Military Modernization and Reform ................. 52 Regional Defense Cooperation .................... 54 American Policy ............................... 55 U.S.-Baltic Relations After Prague .................. 59 European Attitudes and Policy ..................... 60 The Defense of the Baltic States .................... 62 The European Union’s Northern Dimension .......... 64 Nordic Perspectives and Policy .................... 66 The Russian Factor ............................. 70 The Economic and Energy Dimension ............... 73 The Problem of Kaliningrad ....................... 74 The Impact of EU and NATO Enlargement on Kaliningrad ............................... 78 The Broader Impact of Enlargement on Baltic Politics and Security .............................. 80 The Post-Prague Agenda in the Baltic Region .......... 82 Beyond the Immediate Neighborhood ............... 83 Developing New Partners ........................ 84 Chapter Four UKRAINE’S UNCERTAIN “EUROPEAN CHOICE” ....... 87 Ethnic and Regional Divisions ..................... 88 Crimea and Sevastopol .......................... 90 Economic Challenges ........................... 93 The Impact of “Kuchmagate” ..................... 94 The Russian Factor ............................. 95 The American Connection ........................ 98 Ukraine’s Problematic “European Choice” ............ 100 Ukraine and NATO ............................. 102 Military Reform................................ 104 The Central European Dimension .................. 107 GUUAM and Caspian Cooperation ................. 110 Ukraine’s Uncertain Future ....................... 112 Contents vii Chapter Five WHITHER RUSSIA? ............................. 115 Russian Foreign Policy in Transition ................ 116 Russian Foreign Policy Under Putin ................. 119 Russia’s Military Decline ......................... 121 Military Reform................................ 123 Military and Defense Policy Under Putin ............. 124 Russia’s New Military Doctrine and Security Concept .... 130 The Conflict in Chechnya ........................ 132 Relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States ................................... 134 New Accents in CIS Policy Under Putin .............. 135 The Caucasus ................................. 138 Central and Eastern Europe ....................... 140 Relations with Western Europe and the EU ........... 143 Russian Attitudes Toward ESDP .................... 147 The German Factor ............................. 148 Relations with NATO ............................ 152 The Winds of Change ........................... 156 Chapter Six NATO’S EASTERN AGENDA AFTER PRAGUE: IMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES FOR U.S. POLICY ... 159 Consolidating the Democratic Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe ............................ 159 Ensuring the Security of the Baltic States ............. 163 Developing a Post-Enlargement Strategy for Ukraine .... 167 Deepening the Russia-NATO Partnership ............ 169 Engagement in the Caucasus and Central Asia ......... 173 The New Strategic Context ....................... 174 U.S. Leadership and Engagement .................. 176 Forging a New Transatlantic Consensus .............. 177 SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................ 179 FIGURES NATO’s Eastern Enlargement ................ Frontispiece 1. The GUUAM Countries ....................... 111 ix SUMMARY Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has undergone a major process of adaptation and change. One of the key elements of this trans- formation has been the development of a new “Eastern agenda.” The centerpiece of this new agenda has been NATO’s eastward enlarge- ment. The Prague summit in November 2002 opened a new stage in NATO’s approach to the East. At the summit, the NATO Heads of State and Governments agreed to extend membership invitations to seven countries—Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. In inviting these new countries to join the Alliance, the NATO Heads of State and Government took a major step toward overcoming the division of Europe and creating a “Europe whole and free.” However, NATO’s Eastern agenda is by no means finished. It has simply been transformed. In the wake of the Prague summit, NATO still faces a number of critical challenges in the East. CONSOLIDATING THE DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS IN CENTRAL