• PART 2 - CONTENTS PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2. 1 THE FORM OF THE CITY 2.2 GROWTH OF THE CITY 2.3 ETHNIC ORIGIN OF POPULATION 2.4 EMPLOYMENT 2.5 BUILDING DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND 2.6 TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE 2.7 FUTURE URBAN GROWTH 2.8 LAND PRESENTLY ZONED FOR URBAN USES 2.9 RURAL LAND USE 2.10 CONTEXT OF THE PLANNING SCHEME CITY OF MANUKAU SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 THE FORM OF THE CITY Manukau City had a population in March 1986 of 177,248. Its land area of over 600 square kilometres dominates the southern part of the Auckland Region. The territorial integrity of the district, stretches from the edge of the Auckland isthmus in the north to the Hunua Ranges in the south. The Manukau City Centre, 25 km south of Auckland Centre, is the natural geographical focus of the city's urban area. When fully developed the urban area will stretch out from the Centre southwards to Manurewa, northeastwards to Otara and Pakuranga and northwest to Mangere. Two-thirds of the City's land area is in rural use, ranging from dairy and town milk supply units to pastoral farming, horticulture and forestry. A distinctive feature of the district is its extensive coastline of 320 km. In the west is the Manukau Harbour, from which the City takes its name. In the east is the Hauraki Gulf and in the north the Tamaki River. Residential development in the urban part of the City has taken full advantage of the coastline. In the rural areas small coastal settlements have developed further south under strictly controlled conditions at beach locations. These small ( settlements include Beachlands and Maraetai which are developing as dormitory coastal suburbs of Manukau City, the small rural settlement of Whitford, and two coastal settlements at Kawakawa Bay and Orere Point. The rural town of Clevedon is established further inland in the fertile Clevedon Valley. In the west, urban development has generally been concentrated along the main north-south corridor. Much of the west coast remains in rural or natural condition but parts of it are dominated by major public works or utilities, including Auckland International Airport. Near the Manukau Harbour and the Tamaki River the land is low-lying and easily developed for urban purposes. Inland and to the east the land rises to more than 500m above sea level. The hill country is made up of the block of hills from Brookby-Maraetai, which form a natural geographic boundary to act as the ultimate limit to urban development. To the south of these hills is a down-faulted flat valley to the west of Clevedon township. In the west, lowland volcanic eruptions have formed scoria cones and craters in East Tamaki, Mangere and Wiri. ( Beyond the areas of urban development, lower-lying land is mostly pasture often featuring mature shelter belts, while scrub and bush are more prevalent on more hilly land. In the deep gullies, large tree ferns remain while pockets of native totara and kahikatea still exist in some places. Between Clevedon and Maraetai there is one of the last significant stands of native bush in South Auckland. 2.2 GROWTH OF THE CITY 2.2.1 Historical Background Urban development in South Auckland was established before the 1 940' s with distinct settlements at coastal landing points and at road and rail intersections. Mangere Bridge, Manurewa and Papatoetoe are examples of these. The accelerated growth of South Auckland from a population of 30,000 in 1945 to 247,761 in 1986 when Manukau City grew from 15,000 to 177,248 during the same years, has been influenced by the following factors: The increasing post-war industrialisation of Auckland and its expansion southwards along the Penrose-Otahuhu road and rail corridor to Manukau Central and Greenmount in the 1960's which provided an increasing number of jobs. CITY OF MANUKAU -1- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS The construction of the Southern Motorway in the 1950's which increased the accessibility of South Auckland for individuals and firms. The establishment of the Manukau Sewage Purification Works, the Auckland International Airport, the water supply from the Hunuas and electricity generation at Otara, all of which provided South Auckland with an infrastructure that was capable of catering for large scale urban development. These investment decisions by the central and regional Governments were a key factor in the growth of Manukau City. The presence of low-lying, easily-serviced land in Manukau City in combination with the above three factors were instrumental in the Government embarking on major state housing programmes, first in Otara during the 1950's, and later in Mangere and Manurewa. It was during this period of rapid state housing construction from 1 961 to 1 966 that the population of Manukau City almost doubled from 39,000 to 73,000 and provided the base for future growth. Increasing car ownership and the mobility it gave to individuals was a prime factor in the growth and the decentralised nature of Manukau City during these formative years. Immigration of large numbers of new settlers from the Pacific Islands and other ( overseas countries. 2.2.2 Population Growth The table below shows two phases of population growth in Manukau City since 1961. During the first phase between 1961 and 1976 the population grew very rapidly with an annual increase of approximately 6,700 persons. Since 1 976 the growth rate has been at a much lower level of approximately 3,800 persons per annum. This slower second phase has been in line with retrenchment elsewhere in New Zealand when the nation's population has grown more slowly and there has been an overall net deficit in external migration. In spite of this, population growth and the rate of development in Manukau City is still higher than elsewhere due to the advantages listed above. *TABLE 1: CENSUS POPULATION OF MANUKAU CITY (1961-86) Year 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 Population 39,155 73,172 103,96 139,059 159,362 177,248 7 Intercensal 34,017 30,795 35,092 20,303 17,886 Increase Percentage 86.9 % 42.1 % 33.8% 14.6 % 11 .2 % Increase (Source: New Zealand Population Census) Manukau is characterised by a young and rapidly expanding population. These characteristics mean that Manukau differs from the Region as a whole by: growing faster; having a greater proportion of young people; a higher birthrate and rate of natural increase, as is shown in Table 2. * Refer to Explanatory Document, paragraph 2 CITY OF MANUKAU -2- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS *TABLE 2: ILLUSTRATIVE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Characteristic Manukau Akld Region Manukau Akld Region 1971 1971 1986 1986 % of Population aged under 1 5 42 30 30 23 years Rate of Natural Increase 24.7 14.6 14.0 7 .5 (per 1,000 population) Level of Natural Increase 2,576 10,216 2,493 6,720 Birth Rate 38.5 23.3 19.3 15.5 (per 1,000 population) Number of Births 3,105 16,315 3,398 13,840 (Source: New Zealand Population Census) However, as the City's population grows its demographic profile will gradually approach the Regional demographic profile, for example in 1 971 the City was much smaller, younger, and growing more rapidly than in 1 986. This convergence is a logical consequence of the growth in total population because Manukau's high ( absolute population increases will represent a smaller proportion of a growing total as the years go by. 2.2.3 Future Population Growth Estimates of future population growth stated below have been based on the assumption that the total population will increase by 4,000 persons per annum. Although there are yearly fluctuations according to economic and social factors this has been the general growth level for Manukau City over the last ten years comprising varying levels of natural increase and migration. *TABLE 3: POPULATION PROJECTIONS (1991-2011) (Manukau City Council Estimates) Census Year 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Population Projections 197,000 217,000 237,000 257,000 277,000 2.3 ETHNIC ORIGIN OF POPULATION Manukau City has a large and active multi-cultural community. ( *TABLE 4 : ETHNIC ORIGIN DISTRIBUTION 1981-1986 Census Year European NZ Maori Polynesian Other 1981 68.0% 15.8% 14.3% 1.9% 1986 64.3% 16.7% 16.9% 2.1 % (Source: Manukau City Council estimates using 1981 and 1986 Population Census) Table 4 indicates the increasing percentage of persons with Maori and Polynesian origin in the Region. This trend is likely to continue given the factors outlined in Part 2.2 of this Scheme. The geographic distribution of the different ethnic groups 1n Manukau City is uneven. * Refer to Explanatory Document, paragraph 2 CITY OF MANUKAU -3- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2.4 EMPLOYMENT Between 1 976 and 1986 the rate of growth of the residential labour force was ( greater (57%) than the rate of growth of the population (28%) which reflects the 'ageing' of the population as more people enter the labour force. Although the number of jobs within the City increased by 50% (1976 to 1986), the deficit of jobs to resident labour force has grown by 12,300. Thus a large number of workers must commute to jobs outside the City, principally to the Auckland Isthmus. As well as the fact that job creation in Manukau is not of the same magnitude as growth in the labour force, growing unemployment has also contributed to the job deficit.