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PART 2 - CONTENTS

PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

2. 1 THE FORM OF THE CITY

2.2 GROWTH OF THE CITY

2.3 ETHNIC ORIGIN OF POPULATION

2.4 EMPLOYMENT

2.5 BUILDING DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND

2.6 TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE

2.7 FUTURE URBAN GROWTH

2.8 LAND PRESENTLY ZONED FOR URBAN USES

2.9 RURAL LAND USE

2.10 CONTEXT OF THE PLANNING SCHEME

CITY OF MANUKAU SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

2.1 THE FORM OF THE CITY had a population in March 1986 of 177,248. Its land area of over 600 square kilometres dominates the southern part of the Region. The territorial integrity of the district, stretches from the edge of the Auckland isthmus in the north to the Hunua Ranges in the south.

The Manukau City Centre, 25 km south of Auckland Centre, is the natural geographical focus of the city's urban area. When fully developed the urban area will stretch out from the Centre southwards to , northeastwards to Otara and Pakuranga and northwest to Mangere. Two-thirds of the City's land area is in rural use, ranging from dairy and town milk supply units to pastoral farming, horticulture and forestry.

A distinctive feature of the district is its extensive coastline of 320 km. In the west is the Manukau Harbour, from which the City takes its name. In the east is the and in the north the Tamaki River.

Residential development in the urban part of the City has taken full advantage of the coastline. In the rural areas small coastal settlements have developed further south under strictly controlled conditions at beach locations. These small ( settlements include Beachlands and Maraetai which are developing as dormitory coastal suburbs of Manukau City, the small rural settlement of Whitford, and two coastal settlements at and . The rural town of Clevedon is established further inland in the fertile Clevedon Valley.

In the west, urban development has generally been concentrated along the main north-south corridor. Much of the west coast remains in rural or natural condition but parts of it are dominated by major public works or utilities, including Auckland International Airport.

Near the Manukau Harbour and the Tamaki River the land is low-lying and easily developed for urban purposes. Inland and to the east the land rises to more than 500m above sea level. The hill country is made up of the block of hills from Brookby-Maraetai, which form a natural geographic boundary to act as the ultimate limit to urban development.

To the south of these hills is a down-faulted flat valley to the west of Clevedon township. In the west, lowland volcanic eruptions have formed scoria cones and craters in East Tamaki, Mangere and .

( Beyond the areas of urban development, lower-lying land is mostly pasture often featuring mature shelter belts, while scrub and bush are more prevalent on more hilly land. In the deep gullies, large tree ferns remain while pockets of native totara and kahikatea still exist in some places. Between Clevedon and Maraetai there is one of the last significant stands of native bush in South Auckland.

2.2 GROWTH OF THE CITY 2.2.1 Historical Background Urban development in South Auckland was established before the 1 940' s with distinct settlements at coastal landing points and at road and rail intersections. Mangere Bridge, Manurewa and Papatoetoe are examples of these.

The accelerated growth of South Auckland from a population of 30,000 in 1945 to 247,761 in 1986 when Manukau City grew from 15,000 to 177,248 during the same years, has been influenced by the following factors:

The increasing post-war industrialisation of Auckland and its expansion southwards along the Penrose-Otahuhu road and rail corridor to Manukau Central and Greenmount in the 1960's which provided an increasing number of jobs.

CITY OF MANUKAU -1- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

The construction of the Southern Motorway in the 1950's which increased the accessibility of South Auckland for individuals and firms.

The establishment of the Manukau Sewage Purification Works, the Auckland International Airport, the water supply from the Hunuas and electricity generation at Otara, all of which provided South Auckland with an infrastructure that was capable of catering for large scale urban development. These investment decisions by the central and regional Governments were a key factor in the growth of Manukau City.

The presence of low-lying, easily-serviced land in Manukau City in combination with the above three factors were instrumental in the Government embarking on major state housing programmes, first in Otara during the 1950's, and later in Mangere and Manurewa. It was during this period of rapid state housing construction from 1 961 to 1 966 that the population of Manukau City almost doubled from 39,000 to 73,000 and provided the base for future growth.

Increasing car ownership and the mobility it gave to individuals was a prime factor in the growth and the decentralised nature of Manukau City during these formative years.

Immigration of large numbers of new settlers from the Pacific Islands and other ( overseas countries.

2.2.2 Population Growth The table below shows two phases of population growth in Manukau City since 1961. During the first phase between 1961 and 1976 the population grew very rapidly with an annual increase of approximately 6,700 persons. Since 1 976 the growth rate has been at a much lower level of approximately 3,800 persons per annum. This slower second phase has been in line with retrenchment elsewhere in when the nation's population has grown more slowly and there has been an overall net deficit in external migration. In spite of this, population growth and the rate of development in Manukau City is still higher than elsewhere due to the advantages listed above.

*TABLE 1: CENSUS POPULATION OF MANUKAU CITY (1961-86)

Year 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

Population 39,155 73,172 103,96 139,059 159,362 177,248 7

Intercensal 34,017 30,795 35,092 20,303 17,886 Increase

Percentage 86.9 % 42.1 % 33.8% 14.6 % 11 .2 % Increase

(Source: New Zealand Population Census)

Manukau is characterised by a young and rapidly expanding population. These characteristics mean that Manukau differs from the Region as a whole by: growing faster; having a greater proportion of young people; a higher birthrate and rate of natural increase, as is shown in Table 2.

* Refer to Explanatory Document, paragraph 2

CITY OF MANUKAU -2- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

*TABLE 2: ILLUSTRATIVE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS

Characteristic Manukau Akld Region Manukau Akld Region 1971 1971 1986 1986

% of Population aged under 1 5 42 30 30 23 years

Rate of Natural Increase 24.7 14.6 14.0 7 .5 (per 1,000 population)

Level of Natural Increase 2,576 10,216 2,493 6,720

Birth Rate 38.5 23.3 19.3 15.5 (per 1,000 population)

Number of Births 3,105 16,315 3,398 13,840

(Source: New Zealand Population Census)

However, as the City's population grows its demographic profile will gradually approach the Regional demographic profile, for example in 1 971 the City was much smaller, younger, and growing more rapidly than in 1 986. This convergence is a logical consequence of the growth in total population because Manukau's high ( absolute population increases will represent a smaller proportion of a growing total as the years go by.

2.2.3 Future Population Growth Estimates of future population growth stated below have been based on the assumption that the total population will increase by 4,000 persons per annum. Although there are yearly fluctuations according to economic and social factors this has been the general growth level for Manukau City over the last ten years comprising varying levels of natural increase and migration.

*TABLE 3: POPULATION PROJECTIONS (1991-2011) (Manukau City Council Estimates)

Census Year 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Population Projections 197,000 217,000 237,000 257,000 277,000

2.3 ETHNIC ORIGIN OF POPULATION Manukau City has a large and active multi-cultural community. ( *TABLE 4 : ETHNIC ORIGIN DISTRIBUTION 1981-1986

Census Year European NZ Maori Polynesian Other

1981 68.0% 15.8% 14.3% 1.9% 1986 64.3% 16.7% 16.9% 2.1 %

(Source: Manukau City Council estimates using 1981 and 1986 Population Census)

Table 4 indicates the increasing percentage of persons with Maori and Polynesian origin in the Region. This trend is likely to continue given the factors outlined in Part 2.2 of this Scheme.

The geographic distribution of the different ethnic groups 1n Manukau City is uneven.

* Refer to Explanatory Document, paragraph 2

CITY OF MANUKAU -3- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

2.4 EMPLOYMENT Between 1 976 and 1986 the rate of growth of the residential labour force was ( greater (57%) than the rate of growth of the population (28%) which reflects the 'ageing' of the population as more people enter the labour force.

Although the number of jobs within the City increased by 50% (1976 to 1986), the deficit of jobs to resident labour force has grown by 12,300. Thus a large number of workers must commute to jobs outside the City, principally to the Auckland Isthmus. As well as the fact that job creation in Manukau is not of the same magnitude as growth in the labour force, growing unemployment has also contributed to the job deficit.

* TABLE 5: POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP (1976- 1986)

1976 1981 1986

Population 139,059 159,362 77,248

Residential Labour Force 51,899 65,312 81,297

Jobs 34,478 42,129 51,576

Job Deficit -17,421 -23, 183 -29,721 ( (Source: Population Census 1 976, 1981 , 1986) 1

With the exception of the transport, agricultural and mining sectors the deficit of jobs to resident workers occurs in all employment sectors. It is most marked in the manufacturing and trade sectors, which account for over half of the total deficit. There is also a notable shortfall in office jobs.

With 6,6002 residents unemployed or seeking work in 1986, the attainment of an adequate level of employment will be a key issue in the future development of Manukau. Employment in the City is highly dependent on manufacturing jobs, the sector which is most sensitive to economic fluctuations. With more stringent economic conditions forecast, the expansion in manufacturing employment is likely to be smaller than in the immediate past.

2.5 BUILDING DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND Building activity, particularly in the housing sector, has levelled out since the boom years of 1975 and 1976 when approximately 2,400 dwellings were built per annum. The average number of new household units authorised by building permit between 1977 and 1987 was approximately 1,350 per annum. This was substantially higher than for any other local authority in New Zealand.

With an anticipated population increase of about 4,000 persons per year3 and a likely density of about 40 persons per ha in new developments, the rate of consumption of residential land will amount to approximately 100 ha per year.

The residential labour force and jobs data includes only those persons working 20 or more hours.

2 1986 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings, Series B Report 3.

3 See Table 3 .

* Refer to Explanatory Document, paragraph 2

CITY OF MANUKAU -4- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

As there are approximately 1,750 ha of vacant residential land4 there is sufficient land zoned throughout the City to provide for further urban development until well beyond the year 2000.

Economic and social factors will cause fluctuations in the rate of land development and building during the life of this Scheme. The Scheme is framed to provide for some flexibility, and urban growth policies are designed to ensure adequate opportunity and reasonable choice of location for new development in relation to demand as it occurs.

2.6 TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE The influence of the motor car and the reliance on a high level of personal mobility has had a marked effect on the present land use pattern of the City. Through the 1970's and 1980's the emphasis was on energy conservation but in spite of the major oil price shocks of the 1970's, the level of personal mobility has gradually kept increasing in line with lifestyle changes and higher levels of vehicle availability, particularly company owned vehicles.

Issues involved in the relationship between land use and transportation for the late 1980's and 1990's are seen in a wider context than just energy conservation. A land use distribution which minimises the need for travel by localising travel demand ( is seen as the best strategy for:

(al minimising the operating costs of public and private transport, (bl minimising fuel consumption, and (cl avoiding or at least deferring, major investment in new transport infrastructure in the major travel corridors.

The following provisions have been included in this Scheme in order to facilitate a land use distribution which localises travel demand:

Provision of further employment opportunities both closer to and at home.

Provision of new residential areas closer to existing centres and some opportunity for further development of existing residential areas.

Development of neighbourhood facilities as a focus for the community.

Provision for pedestrian way and cycle routes to be developed in new areas.

Development of a continuous and direct road link that will facilitate improved public transport between Manukau City Central industrial area, and the existing and future residential areas extending northeast to Howick.

Provision of services and other facilities in accordance with existing and likely future patterns of travel and activity.

2.7 FUTURE URBAN GROWTH The southern sector of the is favourably placed and serviced for continuing urban development and the current momentum of urbanisation in the southern sector should not be hindered. Certain locational advantages exist, such as zoned land, bulk services and good transportation links, and the Region as a whole should capitalise on these and other previous investments.

4 Vacant Residential Land Survey (December 1987) - Manukau City Council Planning and Development Department.

CITY OF MANUKAU -5- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

The majority of the area with growth potential in the southern sector lies within Manukau City. The City contains two major industrial concentrations (at Manukau Central and East Tamaki), a sub-regional commercial centre at Manukau City ( Centre, the International Airport at Mangere, and furthermore is traversed by national and regional transport routes (the Southern Motorway and the main trunk railway line). Substantial regional capital investment has been committed to further development of existing southern urban centres and of the areas between them. There is still considerable capacity to accommodate growth in Manukau with those services already constructed and committed to existing urban and future development zones without substantial extensions required.

2.8 LAND PRESENTLY ZONED FOR URBAN USES 2.8.1 Residential within the urban area Out of a total of 1,750 ha of vacant land in 5 urban residential zones in the City, there are 190 ha in Mangere, 250 ha in Otara, 600 ha in Pakuranga and 71 6 ha in Manurewa.

Mangere There is considerable potential for infill development on large sections currently used for market gardening, although it is likely that the existing uses will remain in ( operation for some time. Approximately 48 ha of land in the Massey Road and Westney Road areas has been rezoned in this Review. Some of the land near the airport is being used for motels and some non-residential uses.

Otara There are limited opportunities for increased density of development in the fully developed areas of Otara. Subdivision and development in the Flat Bush area has been proceeding slowly with around 220 ha still vacant.

Pakuranga In addition to the large developing areas at Mangemangeroa and Botany, a further 180 ha has been rezoned at Te U Kaipo and Mangemangeroa for which development proposals are detailed in Part 3. Some infill development is possible in older parts of Pakuranga and the areas adjacent to Howick.

Manurewa Considerable areas of zoned land remain available for development, such as Wattle Farm, Manurewa East and Clendon Park - Weymouth. In the older central parts of Manurewa there exists a potential for both infill and redevelopment to higher ( densities. Manurewa has the ability to provide for a wide range of housing types.

2.8.2 Industrial There are approximately 1,600 ha 6 of land zoned industrial in Manukau City, 752 ha of which are still undeveloped particularly in Manukau Central (307 ha) and East Tamaki (244 ha), including sites which are partially occupied by existing operations but which are large enough to support further subdivision and/or development. There are an additional 220 ha of land zoned for quarry purposes in Manukau Central, the majority of which is likely to ultimately become available for industrial purposes.

5 Vacant Residential Land Survey (December 1987) - Manukau City Council Planning and Development Department.

6 Manukau City Council Industrial Land Survey - 1989 - excludes designated industrial land.

CITY OF MANUKAU -6- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

Manukau Central (Manurewa Ward) and East Tamaki (Otara Ward) are the major industrial areas in Manukau City. Between 1981 and 1988 the total uptake of industrial land in these areas made up more than two thirds of the total for the City.

A more detailed description of the extent of the industrial zones, the rate of uptake of land, and the consequential rezonings which have taken place in this Review occurs in Parts 10.1 and 3.1 .3.

2.8.3 Commercial There are approximately 190 ha of land zoned for commercial purposes within the City. Apart from the land devoted to the four main tiers of commercial activity, significant areas of land have been zoned for special commercial purposes (service stations and licensed facilities) and mixed use commercial service zones (Commercial Five and Six) on the periphery of some commercial centres. Several Commercial 9 zones have been incorporated in this Review at the Airport, and adjacent to the City Centre. Commercial 9 provides for a range of mixed business park-tourist related uses.

A detailed description of the character, size and rate of development of the major commercial centres occurs in Part 11 . 1 .

2.8.4 Low Density Residential There are some further opportunities to develop additional sections for low density residential use in the areas already zoned Residential 7 along the ridgelines following Point View Drive, Redoubt and Mill Roads. Additional Residentiai 7 land has also been zoned in this Review between Redoubt Road and Ormiston Road, along the route of the proposed 'scenic drive'.

2.8.5 Coastal Settlements and Rural Living The expansion of the residential settlements in the rural areas, namely Beachlands-Maraetai, Whitford, Clevedon, Kawakawa Bay and Orere Point is limited since these settlements do not have water and sewerage reticulation. Limited provision has been made in this Review for further expansion of Clevedon Township. There is sufficient vacant land in the Residential 5 zone to cater for development during the next 20 years at the same rate as in recent years.

As well as these rural settlements, living in a rural environment is catered for under the subdivision controls introduced in this Review particularly the Rural Smallholdings zone (Rural 2), and by the existing subdivision pattern in the rural ( zones in the form of small lots suitable for residential purposes in association with part time farming.

2.9 RURAL LAND USE Two thirds of the area of the City is and will remain in rural land use and production from land used for farming continues to be significant.

Less than one thousand people work full-time on farms in the City but many rural dwellers are part-time farmers who are also employed in the urban area. Another characteristic of rural land use in the district which is attributable to urban influence is the number of landowners who do not work full-time on their properties.

As in New Zealand generally the poor economic outlook for traditional agricultural products has resulted in a decline in stock numbers. Between 1 979 and 1 987 there has been a significant decline in the importance of dairying in Manukau. This has been due to market trends, the impact of government policies and also due to urban development onto dairy farms.

While the traditional agricultural economy has been static, some traditional farms have diversified with the planting of a wider range of crops. Although new market l gardens, nurseries, orchards and other horticultural uses have been established in

CITY OF MANUKAU -7- SECOND REVIEW PART 2 - THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

rural parts of the City, the total area in horticultural use has fluctuated as urban uses have replaced many units, especially in Mangere. ( The South Auckland region's extensive soils of high value for food production extend into the district. The quality of the soils in parts of the district and the proximity of a large market and the international airport combine to give the area potential for the growing of a variety of crops. This Review contains provisions aimed at promoting the appropriate use of such soils.

2 . 10 CONTEXT OF THE PLANNING SCHEME The purpose of this part of the Scheme is to provide a brief outline of the physical, land use and demographic context to which the objectives, policies and ordinances in the following parts of the Scheme relate. This context is complete and dynamic. In order to plan for the orderly development of the City, and to evaluate the impact of trends and policy initiatives of other authorities, Council will be maintaining a data base and continually monitoring matters such as the uptake of zoned land, and demographic and employment trends.

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CITY OF MANUKAU -8- SECOND REVIEW