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The Top 10 Stocks of Actinver

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The Top 10 Stocks of Actinver Actinver’s Equity Research April 17, 2015 The Top 10 Stocks Of Actinver CONFIDENCIAL Y DE USO INTERNO 1 Methodology Methodology for The Top 10 Stocks of Actinver We present in this report The Top 10 Stocks of Actinver. With an investment horizon of 18 to 36 months, we present the companies that in our view will evidence significant value creation, either by growth in revenue, higher operating efficiencies and/or solid fundamentals. This report will be updated weekly and distributed every Monday, with multiples based on closing share prices of the previous Friday. In addition, a review of each company will be conducted monthly, and every quarter companies’ financial results will be considered and, if necessary, adjustments will be made. If at any time a relevant event or news warrants a change, our analysis team will make the appropriate changes. The valuation methodology used for this report is based on: a) Discounted Cash Flows (DCF); b) comparable multiples; and c) Sum of the Parts, among others. The presentation of companies in this report is in alphabetical order and the main sources of information used are: a) Actinver’s Analysis; b) the Company itself; c) the Mexican Bolsa; and d) Bloomberg. This report has a summary sheet, where the most relevant figures and multiples are presented for each company, followed by separate one-pagers per business. Click here for summary. CONFIDENCIAL Y DE USO INTERNO 2 2 Index 1 AC* Page 5 6 GISSA Page 10 2 ALSEA Page 6 7 HERDEZ Page 11 3 ARA Page 7 8 LAMOSA Page 12 4 CEMEX Page 8 9 LIVEPOLC Page 13 5 GFREGIO Page 9 10 WALMEX Page 14 CONFIDENCIAL Y DE USO INTERNO 3 3 17 de junio de 2014 Las 10 FavoritasThe Top de Actinver10 Stocks Of Actinver April 17, 2015 Summary Return Price Price Return Market EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E 12 M Today 2015 (e) Expected Cap Float 3-yr Avg. L12 M 2015 2016 3-yr Avg. L12 M 2015 2016 3-yr Avg. L12 M 2015 2016 AC* 20% 97.99 106.00 8% 157,888 20% 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 13.9 12.5 11.5 10.5 27.0 24.3 22.1 20.6 ALSEA* 1% 47.08 55.00 17% 39,435 66% 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.5 21.1 18.1 13.0 11.1 69.1 59.1 32.7 30.7 ARA* 17% 6.81 8.00 17% 8,940 58% 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 10.6 11.1 9.7 8.4 17.9 20.9 16.1 14.4 CEMEXCPO -7% 15.30 19.00 24% 190,300 95% 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 11.6 11.7 9.9 8.3 -13.6 -28.1 -221.4 51.8 GFREGIO 10% 83.05 95.00 14% 27,235 19% 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.7 NA NA NA NA 19.1 16.6 14.4 12.4 GISSAA 17% 31.48 38.00 21% 11,208 49% 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 8.0 8.5 7.9 6.6 7.8 25.0 15.8 15.1 HERDEZ* 11% 41.87 45.50 9% 17,832 25% 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 13.4 13.3 10.9 9.9 24.7 28.8 20.6 19.0 LAMOSA* 19% 33.79 38.00 12% 12,783 13% 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 9.7 8.5 8.4 7.5 22.5 28.9 30.0 25.9 LIVEPOLC 31% 178.84 193.00 8% 240,038 15% 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 20.3 19.4 16.5 14.2 31.8 30.9 26.9 23.4 WALMEX* 16% 38.63 42.00 9% 676,281 30% 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 16.2 15.5 14.2 12.8 26.5 22.2 25.7 23.6 Growth % Margins EBITDA EBITDA Net Inc. Net Inc. EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA Net Net Investment Thesis 2015 2016 2015 2016 L12 M 2015 2016 2015 2016 AC* 8% 7% 10% 7% 21.7% 21.6% 22.0% 10.7% 10.9% The first signs of a volume recovery on sight, spell a solid sales recovery going forward. ALSEA* 42% 16% 81% 6% 12.3% 12.5% 13.1% 3.8% 3.6% No more extraordinary expenses from Vips, and a smooth integration in Spain: time to harvest. ARA* 17% 16% 12% 12% 14.6% 15.5% 15.8% 8.1% 8.0% Great BUY opportunity in the housing sector’s inflection point CEMEXCPO 17% 15% -87% -528% 17.4% 18.6% 20.1% -0.4% 1.5% With U.S economic recovery and national infrastructure plan, EBITDA in 2017 will grow 70% vs. 2013. GFREGIO NA NA 15% 16% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 21.8% Strong growth potential focusing on SMEs, high ROE and strong asset quality. GISSAA 13% 21% 67% 4% 11.9% 11.5% 12.0% 6.8% 6.2% Will specialize in auto parts, which will boost sales and expand margins. HERDEZ* 17% 12% 12% 9% 15.8% 17.1% 17.4% 5.2% 5.2% Ready to harvest Nutrisa’s shakedown, plus the incorporation of Nestlé’s Ice Cream. LAMOSA* 2% 12% -3% 16% 22.4% 20.5% 21.0% 4.3% 4.5% The company with the highest EBITDA margin in the ceramic industry LIVEPOLC 15% 13% 15% 15% 16.1% 16.5% 16.9% 9.8% 10.2% A lower delincuency rate will boost margins and a positive trend in the Departament stores. WALMEX* 11% 10% -14% 9% 9.7% 10.0% 10.2% 5.5% 5.6% Outstanding results in the 4Q14, even stripping non-recurring benefits * Figures in million of pesos Methodology Note: NA = Not Aplicable Price 2015(e). Estimated price for year end 2015. NS = Not Significant For the selected companies, we are continually evaluating events and news stories that could significantly affect stock performance. Estimates for 2014 and 2015 years Source: Actinver and Bloomberg analysis 4 The Top 10 Stocks Of Actinver April 17, 2015 Current Price: MP 97.99 Figures in millions of pesos AC Liquidity High Price Objective 2015: MP 106.0 7.2% Return 2013 2014 2015e 2016e Sales 60,359 61,957 66,925 70,316 The first signs of a volume recovery on sight, following the application of special taxes on sugary EBITDA 12,418 13,429 14,461 15,482 drinks, spell a solid sales recovery going forward, now accompanied by improved profitability. Margin 20.6% 21.7% 21.6% 22.0% Growth YoY 14.1% 8.1% 7.7% 7.1% Net Profit 5,973 6,510 7,144 7,680 Emerging stronger following a complicated year Margin 9.9% 10.5% 10.7% 10.9% Growth YoY 18.4% 9.0% 9.7% 7.5% We rate AC a BUY and place it among Actinver’s Top 10 Stocks as we believe the company has weathered through a complicated year and is prepared to enjoy an upswing in demand during 2015, even if it won’t return to Total Assets 66,349 79,972 87,849 96,064 2013 levels yet. Current valuation is not cheap, but market ratios do stand at a discount to historical averages. Cash 2,566 9,039 11,170 14,942 Total Liabilities 25,165 30,617 31,189 31,465 YoY volume decreases have sequentially fallen over the year, with –5.4%, -4.1% and –1.1% for sparkling bever- Debt 14,078 15,777 15,773 15,777 ages in Mexico in 1Q, 2Q and 3Q, respectively. But during the 4Q, AC presented a solid report that included its Equity 41,184 49,355 56,660 64,599 first YoY increase in volumes (+0.7%), following the application of the sugary-drinks taxes that came into effect Majority 38,352 46,044 53,349 61,288 starting 2014. Multiples EBITDA margin (including non–recurring expenses) was up 30bp entirely reflecting AC’s expense-cutting pro- EV/Sales 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x gram that limited expenses to a mere 1.8% YoY increase. EBITDA reached MP 3,311 mn, up 7.7% YoY. EV/EBITDA 13.9x 12.5x 11.5x 10.5x P/E 26.4x 24.3x 22.1x 20.6x Further development opportunities, beyond organic growth ROE 15.9% 16.0% 14.2% 13.3% Current beverage portfolio continues to evolve as energy drinks increase their significance within the sales mix ROA 9.3% 9.0% 8.4% 8.3% and already challenge for market-leader status. Also, water sales continue growing through diverse presentations Net Debt/ EBITDA 0.9x 0.5x 0.3x 0.1x Dividend Yield 3.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% and an extended geographical coverage. AC vs. IPC (April 2014 = 100) AC continues to work on existing territories with improvements in existing capacity, strict controls of expenses 130.00 and enhancing client service through its RTM (Route to Market) and DTH (Direct to Home) models. The operating model is an ever-evolving unit that undergoes continuous analysis and adjustments in order to assure its efficien- 120.00 cy. AC has reached its MP 500 mn savings 2014 target by September; actual savings will be higher. 110.00 AC’s snack operations in North America and Tonicorp (Dairy, consolidated since 2Q14) in Ecuador both recorded solid results and combined represented 10.7% of the company’s revenues.
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