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ALSEA Greater Than Expected Impact of the Pandemic @Analisis Fundam

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ALSEA Greater Than Expected Impact of the Pandemic @Analisis Fundam Equity Research M exico ALSEA Quarterly Report May 4, 2021 www.banorte.com Greater than expected impact of the pandemic @analisis_fundam ▪ Alsea's report was weak, with the impact of the sanitary measures Consumer and Telecom being greater than expected. However, the recovery observed in March points to a more favorable outlook going forward Valentín Mendoza Senior Strategist, Equity [email protected] ▪ We believe the hardest times are behind us. The economic recovery and the progress in vaccine distribution should support the recovery, Juan Barbier, CFA Analyst which should be reflected in significant growth [email protected] ▪ We set a PT of MXN 39.00 (FV/EBITDA 2021E of 7.8x below current HOLD multiple). However, given a limited return after the recent rally, we Current Price $34.18 downgrade our rating to HOLD PT $39.00 Upside Potential 14.1% Max – Min LTM ($) 36.7 – 17.6 The pandemic impacted profitability in Europe more than expected. In the Market Cap (US$m) 1,429.4 face of the reinforced sanitary measures in all regions, implementing temporary Shares Outstanding (m) 838.6 Float 48.52% (and some permanent) unit closures, as well as time and capacity restrictions, Daily Turnover US$m 70.4 figures for the quarter were below our estimates. Revenues declined 15.6% y/y Valuation metrics LTM FV/EBITDA 13.0x to MXN 10.212 billion, as a result of a 13.3% y/y decline in consolidated SSS P/E N.A. (Mexico: -8.4%; Europe: -29.2%; South America: +4.9%), reflecting the effects MSCI ESG Rating* N.A. of a heavy snowfall in Spain, an adverse FX effect, and the closure of 122 units in the LTM. On the other hand, despite operational weakness, Starbucks, Relative performance to Mexbol Domino's Pizza and Burger King (which are the most relevant in the portfolio) LTM continue to stand out for their good performance. Meanwhile, an aggressive 100% 80% cost-cutting strategy (achieving MXN 880 million in savings), government 60% support in Europe and efficiencies in the Southern Cone were not enough to 40% offset the operating deleveraging caused by sales decline. EBITDA reached 20% MXN 2.045 million (-18.0% y/y) and the respective margin contracted 60 bps 0% -20% to 20.0% (Mexico: -5.3pp; Europe: +20.9pp; South America: +9.4pp). Finally, Apr.-20 Jul.-20 Oct.-20 Jan.-21 Apr.-21 at the net level, a loss of MXN 312 million was recorded as a consequence of MEXBOL ALSEA* the fragility at the operating level. Recovery in sight. As soon as 2Q21, when comparative fundamentals will start to be easy, the reactivation of economic activity should support significant growth. We raise our PT to MXN 39.00; but given the limited upside potential after the rally, we recommend HOLD. Financial Statements Valuation and Financial metrics 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2019 2020 2021E 2022E Revenue 58,155 38,495 48,229 55,599 FV/EBITDA 6.0x 12.1x 7.4x 5.9x Operating Income 4,571 -1,454 2,769 5,342 P/E 30.9x -9.0x -295.1x 15.1x EBITDA 12,618 6,925 10,511 12,564 P/BV 3.0x 4.5x 4.5x 3.5x EBITDA Margin 21.7% 18.0% 21.8% 22.6% Net Income 927 -3,186 -97 1,902 ROE 7.4% -33.1% -1.3% 23.2% Net Margin 1.6% -8.3% -0.2% 3.4% ROA 1.2% -3.8% -0.1% 2.2% EBITDA/ interest 4.9x 2.1x 3.3x 3.9x Total Assets 76,412 82,932 82,932 84,549 Net Debt/EBITDA 3.6x 7.7x 4.6x 3.5x Cash 2,625 3,932 3,570 3,818 Debt/Equity 4.2x 7.5x 7.1x 5.3x Total Liabilities 64,870 75,249 75,620 75,434 This document is provided for the reader’s convenience Debt 48,222 57,512 51,676 47,886 only. The translation from the original Spanish version was Common Equity 11,543 7,683 7,311 9,115 made by Banorte’s staff. Discrepancies may possibly arise Source: Banorte between the original document in Spanish and its English translation. For this reason, the original research paper in Spanish is the only official document. The Spanish version was released before the English translation. The original document entitled “Un mayor impacto del esperado por la 1 pandemia” was released on April 30, 2021. Document for distribution among public ALSEA – Results 1Q21 Revenue & EBITDA Margin MXN, million MXN, million Diff% vs Concept 1Q20 1Q21 Var % 1Q21e Estim. Revenue 12,105 10,212 -15.6% 10,717 -4.7% 14,000 40.0% Operating Income 468 38 -91.8% 748 -94.9% 21.3% 28.5% 20.6% 30.0% Ebitda 2,495 2,045 -18.0% 2,829 -27.7% 12,000 20.0% Net Income -280 -312 11.5% 73 N.A. 10,000 20.0% Margins 10.0% 8,000 Operating Margin 3.9% 0.4% -3.5pp 7.0% -6.6pp 0.0% Ebitda Margin 20.6% 20.0% -0.6pp 26.4% -6.4pp 6,000 -10.0% Net Margin -2.3% -3.1% -0.7pp 0.7% -3.7pp 4,000 -20.0% EPS -$0.33 -$0.37 11.5% $0.09 N.A. -17.4% 2,000 -30.0% 0 -40.0% 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 Income Statement (Million pesos) Year 2020 2020 2021 Change Change Revenue EBITDA Margin Quarter 1 4 1 % y/y % q/q Net Revenue 12,105 11,297 10,212 -15.6% -9.6% Costs of goods sold 3,611 3,282 3,331 -7.7% 1.5% Gross profit 8,494 8,015 6,880 -19.0% -14.2% General expenses 8,113 7,263 6,736 -17.0% -7.3% Net Income & ROE Operating Income 468 984 38 -91.8% -96.1% MXN, million Operating Margin 3.9% 8.7% 0.4% (3.5pp) (8.3pp) Depreciation 2,027 2,241 2,006 -1.0% -10.5% EBITDA 2,495 3,225 2,045 -18.0% -36.6% 500 EBITDA Margin 20.6% 28.5% 20.0% (0.6pp) (8.5pp) 6.1% 10.0% Interest Income (Expense) net (854) (1,339) (658) -22.9% -50.8% 0 Interest expense 761 781 806 5.9% 3.3% (500) -10.0% Interest income 46 26 -44.2% N.A. (1,000) Other income (expense) (139) 116 44 N.A. -61.9% Foreign exchange gain (loss) (674) 78 N.A. N.A. (1,500) -30.0% Unconsolidated subsidiaries (1) 0 (0) -88.4% N.A. (2,000) -34.1% Income before taxes (388) (354) (620) 59.9% 75.0% -50.0% (2,500) -46.1% Income taxes 3 (471) (151) N.A. -68.0% -50.2% -52.7% Discontinued operations N.A. N.A. (3,000) -70.0% Consolidated Net Income (390) 116 (469) 20.2% N.A. 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 Non-controlling interest (110) (49) (157) 42.4% 221.1% Net Income ROE Net Income (280) 165 (312) 11.5% N.A. Net Margin -2.3% 1.5% -3.1% (0.7pp) (4.5pp) EPS (0.334) 0.197 (0.372) 11.5% N.A. Balance Sheet (Million pesos) Total Current Assets 8,665 8,520 8,269 -4.6% -2.9% Net Debt & Net Debt to EBITDA ratio Cash & Short Term Investments 3,844 3,932 3,368 -12.4% -14.4% MXN, million Long Term Assets 76,207 74,412 74,394 -2.4% 0.0% Property, Plant & Equipment (Net) 18,310 15,904 15,515 -15.3% -2.4% Intangible Assets (Net) 28,973 15,829 15,619 -46.1% -1.3% 8.4x Total Assets 84,872 82,932 82,663 -2.6% -0.3% 55,000 7.6x 7.7x 9.0x 8.0x Current Liabilities 23,318 22,465 21,313 -8.6% -5.1% 54,500 6.4x 7.0x Short Term Debt 10,563 9,046 8,582 -18.8% -5.1% 54,000 Accounts Payable 5,989 6,705 6,562 9.6% -2.1% 6.0x 53,500 4.3x Long Term Liabilities 50,827 52,784 54,091 6.4% 2.5% 5.0x Long Term Debt 45,859 48,466 49,353 7.6% 1.8% 53,000 4.0x 3.0x Total Liabilities 74,144 75,249 75,403 1.7% 0.2% 52,500 2.0x Stockholders’ Equity 10,728 7,683 7,260 -32.3% -5.5% 52,000 Non-controlling interest 1,942 1,330 1,156 -40.5% -13.1% 1.0x 51,500 0.0x Total Equity 8,786 6,352 6,104 -30.5% -3.9% 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 Liabilities & Equity 84,872 82,932 82,663 -2.6% -0.3% Net Debt 52,578 53,580 54,567 3.8% 1.8% Net Debt Net Debt to EBITDA Cash Flow CF from Operating Activities 2,008.4 1,446.3 (2,866.7) CF from Investing Activities (563.2) (750.5) 1,332.1 CF from Financing Activities 246.6 (1,765.1) 175.8 FX effect on cash (472.9) (72.0) (38.6) Change in Cash Balance 1,218.8 (1,141.3) (1,397.5) Source: Banorte, MSE. 2 2021 Estimates In view of the strong recovery observed in March ‒which accounted for ~60% of EBITDA for the quarter‒, with more relaxed health measures, we incorporated new estimates to our valuation model, anticipating a pronounced recovery driven by the economic improvement, as well as figures boosted by a favorable base effect.
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