GRUPO TELEVISA, S.A.B. DE C.V. Increasing TP to MP 125.0 Per
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Equity Research GRUPO TELEVISA, S.A.B. DE C.V. Media May 29, 2015 Increasing TP to MP 125.0 per CPO HOLD Change in Recommendation Change in T.P. Change in Estimates Quarterly Review Other Last Price: MP 116.27 Figures in millions of pesos TLEVISA CPO High Liquidity Price Target 2015: MP 125.00 7% Return 2014 L12M 2015e 2016e ■ We are increasing our target price for Televisa’s CPO’s to MP125.0 Sales 80,118 83,054 91,778 97,944 EBITDA 30,801 32,256 35,898 38,174 (USD41.70/ADR), from MP116.0 (USD38.70/ADR) after having updated our Margin 38.4% 38.8% 39.1% 39.0% sum-of-the-parts model. Growth YoY 7.4% 11.1% 16.5% 6.3% ■ We continue with a HOLD recommendation mainly because Televisa’s Net Profit 5,387 5,986 10,023 10,211 shares are currently trading at a 7% discount to their net asset value. Margin 6.7% 7.2% 10.9% 10.4% Growth YoY (30.5%) (20.5%) 86.1% 1.9% ■ In addition, Televisa’s shares trade at an adjusted EV/EBITDA of 9.9x Total Assets 226,894 242,891 245,851 257,891 (including the equity stake from Univision) for 2015 and 9.2x for 2016. Cash & T.I. 29,729 33,887 26,500 30,500 These multiples are aligned with those of its international peers, which on Total Liabilities 138,979 153,208 148,666 151,581 average trade a 9.9x and 9.2x, respectively. Debt 86,234 88,796 85,669 87,254 Total Capital 87,915 89,683 97,186 106,310 ■ The potential return to our new target price is 7%. St. Equity 76,805 78,303 83,094 90,895 ■ The main risk to our HOLD recommendation would be if the Univision IPO Multiples P / E 62.3x 56.1x 33.5x 32.9x did not take place; this would affect the valuation of Televisa’s equity EV / EBITDA 11.3x 10.8x 9.9x 9.2x stake in the US media company. EV / Sales 4.3x 4.2x 3.9x 3.6x We are increasing Televisa’s target price to MP125.0 (USD41.70/ADR), from Financial Ratios MP116.0 (USD38.70/ADR) after having updated our sum-of-the-parts model ROE 6.6% 6.9% 10.9% 10.0% ROA 2.6% 2.7% 4.2% 4.1% (page 2 of this report). The main assumptions that we took are the following: 1) Net Debt / EBITDA 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x we valued the content division at a forward EV/EBITDA of 11.9x, which is in line Div. Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% with CBS’s; ii) we used a 9.1x 2015 EV/EBITDA multiple to value the pay-TV operations, which is in line with Megacable’s; iii) we valued the other businesses at Market Data: 5.6x; and, iv) Univision is listed an at market value of around USD 10.7 billion (EV Mkt. Cap ( USD mn) 21,872 of USD 20 billion) which would be equivalent to a 2015E EV/EBITDA of around 1-year Low / High (MP) 86.30 - 117.15 14.5x. This means that the Univision equity stake represents 18% of Televisa’s net Float 84.3% asset value. TLEVISA CPO vs. IPC (May 2014 = 100) The main risk to our HOLD recommendation would be if the Univision IPO 140 failed. In such case, we believe that the markets would value Televisa’s equity 135 stake in Univision at a much lower multiple, probably at around 10X forward 130 EV/EBITDA, in line with the average multiple of global media companies. This 125 120 would reduce our target price on Televisa’s local shares to around MP112.0 (USD 115 37.30 per ADR). 110 105 100 95 90 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 IPC Tlevisa CPO Martín Lara [email protected] +52 (55) 1103 66 00 x 1840 Juan Ponce [email protected] +52 (55) 1103 66 00 x 1693 1 Televisa's Sum-of-the-Parts Model (Base case assuming UVN Sale @ EV of USD 20 Bn) (Figures in Millions of Pesos) 2015E Total Equity Adjusted EBITDA Multiple EV Stake EV Content 16,475 11.9x 196,057 100.0% 196,057 SKY 8,793 9.1x 80,107 58.7% 47,023 Telecommunications 11,586 9.1x 105,546 100.0% 105,546 Other Businesses 801 5.6x 4,484 100.0% 4,484 Theoretical EV 353,110 Net Debt 59,169 NAV 293,941 + 40% of Univision 65,484 Adjusted NAV 359,425 CPO's Outstanding 2,875 Implied Price per CPO $ 125.02 Current CPO Price $ 116.72 Premium (Discount) to NAV (6.6%) Source: Actinver Televisa's Sum-of-the-Parts Model (Worst Case - Assuming that UVN Is Not Listed) (Figures in Millions of Pesos) 2015E Total Equity Adjusted EBITDA Multiple EV Stake EV Content 16,475 11.9x 196,057 100.0% 196,057 SKY 8,793 9.1x 80,107 58.7% 47,023 Telecommunications 11,586 9.1x 105,546 100.0% 105,546 Other Businesses 801 5.6x 4,484 100.0% 4,484 Theoretical EV 353,110 Net Debt 59,169 NAV 293,941 + 40% of Univision 27,540 Adjusted NAV 321,481 CPO's Outstanding 2,875 Implied Price per CPO $ 111.82 Current CPO Price $ 116.72 Premium (Discount) to NAV 4.4% Source: Actinver 2 Valuation of Global Media Companies Market Cap EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EBITDA chg. EBITDA chg. Net Debt / Company Price P/E 2015E P/E 2016E (USD Mn) 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E EBITDA Grupo Televisa $ 38.04 21,872 9.9x 9.2x 33.5x 32.9x 17% 6% 0.5x TV Azteca $ 0.29 852 6.5x 6.1x 21.9x 16.5x (17%) 9% 2.6x Megacable $ 4.17 3,585 9.2x 7.8x 17.5x 15.0x 23% 16% (0.3x) Disney $ 110.16 186,915 12.7x 11.4x 21.5x 19.5x 16% 9% 0.8x News Corp. $ 15.06 8,886 8.1x 6.9x 32.3x 30.2x 28% 8% (2.8x) Time - Warner $ 84.78 69,910 11.5x 10.2x 18.1x 15.2x 18% 15% 3.2x Viacom $ 67.81 26,707 9.4x 8.3x 12.0x 10.4x (3%) 13% 3.8x Vivendi $ 25.79 35,082 16.1x 15.9x 45.3x 42.8x (13%) 3% (2.7x) Liberty Media $ 57.40 48,139 10.3x 9.6x 318.0x 65.8x 13% 7% 5.6x CBS $ 62.07 30,787 11.9x 10.8x 17.7x 15.7x 5% 10% 2.4x Mediaset $ 5.00 5,898 7.7x 6.4x 55.3x 29.8x (45%) 16% 0.4x Antena 3 $ 15.37 3,446 16.9x 12.4x 23.4x 16.7x 23% 35% 0.9x Comcast $ 58.89 147,845 7.9x 7.4x 17.7x 16.2x 7% 6% 1.8x Cablevision $ 25.28 6,967 8.3x 8.1x 29.4x 26.6x 2% 2% 4.6x DirecTV $ 91.53 46,137 7.1x 6.5x 15.4x 14.6x 5% 3% 1.8x Dish Networks $ 69.85 32,326 15.1x 14.8x 37.4x 40.2x 0% (0%) 4.3x Shaw Communications $ 22.24 10,522 7.8x 7.5x 15.6x 14.5x (5%) 3% 2.5x Sirius XM Radio $ 3.83 20,961 16.0x 15.1x 34.6x 29.0x 20% 10% 3.2x The New York Times $ 14.12 2,344 12.6x 12.7x 26.5x 26.7x 47% (0%) (3.2x) Gannet Co. $ 35.86 8,135 7.8x 7.0x 14.3x 11.9x 16% 11% 3.1x Average 717,316 9.9x 9.2x 21.6x 19.1x 8% 8% 1.6x Source: Bloomberg, Actinver 3 Equity, Economic, Quantitative and Fixed Income Research Departments Equity Research Senior Analysts Telecommunications, Media and Martín Lara (52) 55 1103-6600 x1840 [email protected] Financials Carlos Hermosillo Bernal Consumption (52) 55 1103-6600 x4134 [email protected] Pablo Duarte de León FIBRAs (REITs) (52) 55 1103-6600 x4334 [email protected] Mining, Metals, Paper and Pablo Abraham Peregrina (52) 55 1103-6600 x1395 [email protected] Conglomerates Ramón Ortiz Reyes Cement, Construction and Concessions (52) 55 1103-6600 x1835 [email protected] Federico Robinson Bours Energy, Chemicals and Industrial (52) 55 1103-6600 x4127 [email protected] Carrillo Junior Analysts Telecommunications, Media and Juan Enrique Ponce Luiña (52) 55 1103-6600 x1693 jponce@actinver,com.mx Financials Enrique Octavio Camargo Energy, Chemicals and Industrial (52) 55 1103-6600 x1836 [email protected] Delgado José Antonio Cebeira Consumption (52) 55 1103-6600 x1394 [email protected] González Mining, Metals, Paper Conglomerates, Mauricio Arellano Sampson (52) 55 1103-6600 x4132 [email protected] Cement, Construction and Concessions Laura Elena Bosch Ramírez (52) 55 1103-6600 x4136 [email protected] FIBRAs (REITs) Economic and Quantitative Research Head of Economic and Quantitative Ismael Capistrán Bolio [email protected] Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x6636 Jaime Ascencio Aguirre Economy and Markets (52) 55 1103-6600 x1100 [email protected] Santiago Hernández Morales Quantitative Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x4133 [email protected] Roberto Galvan González Technical Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x1837 [email protected] Fixed Income Research Araceli Espinosa Elguea Head of Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x6641 [email protected] Roberto Ramírez Ramírez Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x1672 [email protected] Jesús Viveros Hernández Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103-6600 x6649 [email protected] Raúl Márquez Pardinas Fixed Income Research (52) 55 1103 6600 x1110 [email protected] 4 Disclaimer Guide for recommendations on investment in the companies under coverage included or not, in the Mexican Stock Exchange main Price Index (IPC) Buy.