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PV Status Report 2005 PV Status Report 2005 Research, Solar Cell Production and Market Implementation of Photovoltaics Arnulf Jäger-Waldau 2005 EUR 21836 EN PV Status Report 2005 Research, Solar Cell Production and Market Implementation of Photovoltaics August 2005 Arnulf Jäger-Waldau European Commission, DG JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Renewable Energies Unit Via Enrico Fermi 1; TP 450 I – 21020 Ispra, Italia EUR 21836 EN Front cover: Artwork by Jennifer Rundle LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information. The report does not represent any official position of the European Commission, nor do its contents prejudge any future Commission proposals in any areas of Community policy. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int). Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2005 ISBN 92-79-00174-4 © European Communities, 2005 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Italy PREFACE Record oil prices and speculations whether the oil price would peak at $ 105 in 2010 or whether it would be well above has become a reality in 2005. Regardless for what reasons and how fast the oil price and with it energy prices will increase in the future, Photovoltaics and other renewable energies are the only ones to offer a reduction of prices instead of an increase in the future. In 2004, the photovoltaic industry production broke the 1 GW barrier, produced world- wide some 1,200 MWp of photovoltaic modules and has become a 5.8 bill. € business. In the past 5 years, the yearly growth rate was an average of more than 40%, which makes photovol- taics one of the fastest growing industries at present. Business analysts predict the market volume to increase to € 25 billion in 2010 and expect rising profit margins and lower prices for consumers at the same time. All market players expect that in the long-term the growth rates for photovoltaics will continue to be high, even if political or economic frame conditions could lead to a short-term slow down of the growth rates. In order to maintain this growth continuous introduction of new technologies, made possible by sound fundamental research, has to take place. The current temporary shortage in silicon feedstock, triggered by the extremely high growth rates of the photovoltaics industry over the last years is opening a window of opportunities for the accelerated introduction of advanced production technologies, thin film solar modules and technologies like concentrator concepts. The Fourth Edition of the “PV Status Report” tries to give an overview about the current activities regarding Research, Manufacturing and Market Implementation. I am aware, that not every country and development is treated with the same attention, but this would go beyond the scope of this report. Nevertheless, I hope that this report will be a useful overview about the situation world-wide. The opinion given in this report is based on the current information available to the author, and does not reflect the opinion of the European Commission. Ispra, August 2005 Arnulf Jäger-Waldau European Commission Joint Research Centre; Renewable Energies Unit 1 2 TABLE OF CONTENT Preface ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 5 2. The World Market ................................................................................................................... 8 3. Japan ....................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Policy to introduce New Energies in Japan................................................................................... 14 3.2 Implementation of Photovoltaics .................................................................................................. 17 3.3 NEDO PV Programme.................................................................................................................. 23 3.4 Japanese Market Situation............................................................................................................. 26 3.5 Market players............................................................................................................................... 30 4. The People’s Republic of China and Taiwan....................................................................... 40 4.1 PV resources and utilisation.......................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Solar companies ............................................................................................................................ 44 5. The United States ................................................................................................................... 47 5.1 Incentives supporting PV .............................................................................................................. 51 5.2 Photovoltaics Technology Plan..................................................................................................... 57 5.3 The US PV-Industry Roadmap ..................................................................................................... 58 5.4 PV Companies............................................................................................................................... 62 6. The European Union..............................................................................................................66 6.1 Market and Implementation in the European Union..................................................................... 68 6.2 PV Research in Europe ................................................................................................................. 75 6.3 Companies..................................................................................................................................... 80 7. Outlook.................................................................................................................................... 87 8. Acknowledgement .................................................................................................................. 93 9. References ............................................................................................................................... 94 3 4 1. INTRODUCTION In 2004, the photovoltaic industry delivered world-wide some 1,200 MWp [May 2005] of photovoltaic generators (Fig. 1) and became a € 5.8 billion business. In the past 5 years, the average annual world growth rate was above 40%, making the further increase of production facilities an attractive investment for industry. An investment report published by Credit Lyonnais Security Asia forecasts that the photovoltaics sector has a realistic potential to expand from € 5.8 billion in 2004 to € 25 billion in 2010 corresponding to 5.3 GWp in annual sales [Rog 2004]. According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), the world-wide solar electricity industry already provided employment for over 35,000 people in 2003 [Epi 2004]. The current solar cell technologies are well-established and provide a reliable product, with sufficient efficiency and energy output for at least 20 years of lifetime. This reliability, the increasing potential of electricity interruption due to grid overloads, as well as the rise of electricity prices from conventional energy sources, add to the attractiveness of Photovoltaic systems. 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 0,0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Rest of World 4,7 5,0 4,6 4,4 5,6 6,4 9,8 9,4 18,7 20,5 23,4 32,6 55,5 83,8 139 Europe 10,2 13,4 16,4 16,6 21,7 20,1 18,8 30,4 33,5 40,0 60,7 86,4 135,1 193,4 314 Japan 16,8 19,9 18,8 16,7 16,5 16,4 21,2 35,0 49,0 80,0 128,6 171,2 251,1 363,9 602 United States 14,8 17,1 18,1 22,4 25,6 34,8 38,9 51,0 53,7 60,8 75,0 100,0 120,6 103,0 139 Total 46,5 55,4 57,9 60,1 69,4 77,6 88,6 125,8 154,9 201,3 287,7 390,2 561,8 744,1 1195 Fig. 1: World PV Cell/Module Production from 1990 to 2004 (data source: PV News [May 2005]) About 90% of the current production uses wafer-based crystalline silicon technology. The top advantage of this technology is that complete production lines can be bought, installed and be up and producing within a relatively short time-frame. This predictable production 5 start-up scenario constitutes a low-risk placement with high expectations for return on investments. The current temporary shortage in silicon feedstock is triggered by the extremely high growth rates of the photovoltaics industry over the last years, which was not followed by the silicon producers. Three developments can be observed at the moment: • Silicon producers have now reacted and are in the process of increasing their production capacities, which will ease the pressure on the supply side within the next two to three years. This indicates that they have recognised PV as a fully fledged industry that provides a stable business segment for the silicon industry, as opposed to being strongly dependent on the demand cycles of the microelectronics
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