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The Future of Photovoltaic Power Generation

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The Future of Photovoltaic Power Generation The Future of Photovoltaic Power Generation Photovoltaic Power Generation Technology Research Association President Dr.Yukinori Kuwano Contents 1. Why Photovoltaic Power Generation? Environmental issues and energy problems Population problem and enhancement of living standards 2. PV has the possibility to save our future 3. A new start after 50 years of PV history 4. PV systems as basic energy suppliers 5. GENESIS project – the possibility of a final energy solution 6. Break through in super conducting electric power transmission 1 Degradation of the Global Environment Greenhouse Sun NOx SOx CO2 Effect Gas flow Acid rain CO2 NOx SOx Fluorocarbon Earth Lake Atmospheric warming/ Melting of polar Pollution: Acid rain: ice caps: Unnatural ecosystems Death of marine life forms Average temperature Abnormal weather Destruction of plant life Increases by 3℃ Desertification 2 World CO2 Emissions ） 7 6 g-C/year 5 15 DevelopingDeveloping CountriesCountries 4 10 （ 3 EasternEastern EuropeEurope 2 1 OECDOECD emission 2 0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 CO Year Source: IPCC 2nd report （1996） 3 World Population Growth Trend 10,000 OverOver 9,0009,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,0006,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 World population (million) population World 1,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Source：Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau 4 Reserves of Various Energy Sources 155y.155y. PossiblePossible periodsperiods ofof miningmining (years)(years) 85y.85y. 67y.67y. 0.910.91 ××10101212tt 4541y.41y.年 1.801.80 ××10101414mm33 1.201.20 4.74 1212 ××1010 barrelsbarrels ×106t Oil Natural gas Coal Uranium British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2006，URANIUM2005 5 History of Energy Consumption by Humankind IC, LSI Solar Industrial Revolution 250 Energy TV, Transistor, atomic power stations EnergyEnergy 200 GapGap Gasoline engines, 150 thermal power stations, and the start of drilling Natural for oil gas 100 Use of tools and fire Use of animals Watt's steam Petroleum Coal 50 for conveyance engine Atomic Power Firewood, etc. World energy consumption 0 B.C. B.C. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. ～1 million1000 1000 1700 2000 2100 (Petroleum equivalent : 1 million b/d) (Petroleum equivalent : 1 Discovery Used fire Firewood, Petro- Solar water wheels, Coal of fire and animal Windmills leum energy 6 ～1 million ～10 thousands ～500 ～200 ～40 Uses of Solar Energy •• LimitlessLimitless •• CleanClean SUN •• EverywhereEverywhere Electricity + - p n Huge energy!! SolarSolar cell cell V The amount of solar Electrical use energy that reaches the earth in an hour is enough to supply our 1 energy needs for a year 2:30 7 History of Solar Cell 1954 Single crystalline silicon solar cell（Pearson） 1973 Oil crisis 1974 National project started in U.S., E.C and Japan etc (ex. Sunshine Project) 1975 P/n control of amorphous Si (Spear) 1976 P-i-n solar cell with initial efficiency of 2.4% (Carlson and Wronski) generation 1980 Consumer electronics powered by a-Si solar cell (calculator etc) solar power (1) The dawn of 1988 Revelation of environmental degradation 1989 GENESIS project (PVSEC-4, Sydney) 1992 Practical reverse-flow solar power generation system (Kuwano’s solar power station) 1994 Basic guideline for new energy introduction 1996 SILK ROAD GENESIS (SRG) Plan 2004 Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030) power 2005 Annual solar cell production exceed 1GW (equal to a nuclear power plant) (2) Advance to 2007 Present supply electric 20102010 20202020 Future Prospect stage- of next for Solar Cell -30 years solar power global scale 20302030 (3) Spread of 8 generation on a Progress in Conversion Efficiency of Solar Cells ) 30 ％ Si c- Si 20 ly- po i a-S 10 Conversion efficiency ( 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 9 Year HIT Solar Cell (HIT: Hetero-junction with Intrinsic Thin-layer) 23 η=22.3% HIT solar cells Highest 22 (laboratory) （<100cm2） 21 200W 20 Η = 19.7% 19 HIT solar cells mass production p/i a-Si 18 mass production (about 0.01µm,Ts=< 200゜C) 190W 17 transparent electrode 16 Conversion Efficiency (%) 15 Conventional poly-Si solar cells n 14 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Fiscal Year 10 i/n a-Si (about 0.01µm, Ts=< 200 ゜C) Wristwatch and Electric Calculator (the First Products) Shipped in 1980 11 The First Practical Use of Reverse-flow PV System in a Japanese House Construct in 1992 12 Interconnection System for Residential Use Solar cell modules 1.8 [kW] Service conductors AC DC switch switch Interconnection Protective relay Breaker Power Power sold bought Earth leakage breaker 13 Operating Data of PV System (This data was obtained through the cooperation of the Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc.) Total power generated 23.855MWh 250 25 1993.3～～ 1993.3 PowerPower soldsold 0.4kW0.4kW addedadded PowerPower consumedconsumed 200 20 150 15 100 10 50 5 Electric power [kWh] Cumulative power [MWh] 0 9293 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0 14 3kW PV System Saves About 700 l/year of Oil 40 cans of oil Annual electrical power generated (18l/can) from 3kW PV system 15 3kW PV System Can Reduce 0.54 t-C of CO2 in One Year 3kW PV system C 3kW PV system O O O C O COCO reductionreduction CC 22 CC OO byby 0.540.54 t-C/yeart-C/year OO OO OO 16 Clustered Grid Connected PV Systems in Kobe TheThe PVPV isis installedinstalled inin 100100 allall thethe houseshouses 17 Large Scale PV System “Solar Ark” ・Maximum system power：630kW ・Annual output energy：Approx. 530,000kWh ・Overall length：315m 18 Location：SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. Gifu Plant Worldwide Large Scale PV Plants Geiseltalsee Solar Park (4MW) Braunsbedra,Germany Serre (3.3MW) Serre,Italy Floriade Haarlemmermeer (2.3MW) Rancho Seco (3.9MW) California,US Haarlemmermeer,Netherlands From：PHOTON International 19 Progress in Global Production Volume 2,500 2006 World 2.5GW Japan 2,000 926.9 U.S. 1,500 The world PV industry 201.6 became 1 Trillion yen scale E.U. 1,000 678.3 Others 500 Production volume (MW) 714.0 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year source：PVNEWS April 2007 20 Actual and Target Cost of Solar Cells Cost target of NEDO Project 30,000 Yen/W 8,000 6,000 4,000 100 Yen/W Module cost (Yen/W) 2,000 01975 80 85 90 95 2000 2010 Year 21 ‘What are the Challenges’ for PV 1．Results of 50 years of PV development a. Efficiency increases: 4 to10 times （Silicon） b. Cost reduction : 1/100 c. Practicability of reverse-flow PV system was confirmed d. Module has more than 20 years of reliability 2．Future Challenge e. Additional cost reduction needed: 1/2 to1/4 f. Reliability : from 20 Years to 50 - 100 Years g. Deployment of key global energy resources 22 Progress in the Energy Development Budget for Japanese Government 100 Fuel cell Wind power 50 Geothemal Solar system Budget (Billion Yen) Budget Solar energy 0 1974 1980 1990 2000 Budget on New Energy Development Projects （1974-2002）（Including installation Support） Source: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry The Japanese government used the budget of about total 300 Billion yen for the PV-related research and development and the spread plan from 1974 to 2002. 23 PV Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030) 2002 2007 2010 2020 2030 （Year） 50Yen/kWh Bulk Si & Thin-Film Si/ Compound 30Yen/kWh Equivalent to Residential Use Equivalent to 23 Yen/kWh Business Use New Material/ Structure 14 Yen/kWh Power Generation Cost <<Cell Technology>> Cost Reduction by Technology 7 Yen/kWh Generation Change Equivalent to Industrial Use Source：NEDO”PV Roadmap Toward 2030”（PV2030）」 24 Taiwan Government Support • Supporting PV system installation These are – 2004: 80 Million very good – 2005: 100 Million plans – 2006: 330 Million • Promote PV applications and design • Establish policy in public construction projects where PV system installation required – 2006, total 1.04MWp – In year 2010 target to 31MWp – In Year 2015 targeted to 320MWp 25 Taiwan Has the Following Advantage for the PV Industry. 1.1.EnergyEnergy importimport countrycountry butbut havehave richrich resourceresource of Solar Energy 2.2.LeadingLeading countrycountry ofof semiconductorsemiconductor industryindustry TaiwanTaiwan 20062006 PVPV productionproduction volumevolume rankedranked #5#5 worldwideworldwide TaiwanTaiwan PVPV IndustryIndustry totaltotal revenuerevenue hashas reachedreached 37.5M37.5M inin 20032003 andand forecastforecast 1250M1250M inin 20072007 TaiwanTaiwan SolarSolar CellCell annualannual productionproduction capacitycapacity isis 9600MW9600MW inin 2007(est.)2007(est.) 3.Challenge3.Challenge spiritspirit toto thethe newnew businessbusiness 26 Energy Consumption in Taiwan (By Energy Form) 10 120 6 klOE 100 80 Electricity 60 Natural Gas L.N.G. 40 Petroleum Products Coal & Coal Products 20 27 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 All energy 1993 110M klOE How much area will 1995 be necessary? : 1997 (2006) 1999 2001 Source 2003 ： Bureau of20 Energy,05 MOEA Proposal of Solar Power Generation in Taiwan Cover all energy : Land 110M klOE(2006) that Taiwan used with a PV system of efficiency 10%. 73km square (15% of the Taiwanese area) would be need for the requirement. Solar raft 28 GGlobal EEnergy NNetwork EEquipped with SSolar Cells and IInternational SSuperconductor Grids GENESISGENESIS Proposed in 1989 Solar Cells InternationalI SuperconductorS Grids 29 World's Energy Consumption and Required Solar Cell System Area Energy System System Year consumption efficiency area (billion kl/y.) (%) (km square) 2000 11 10 729 802 2010 14 10 4％ of desert area 2050 35 15 1,030 2100 111 15 1,850 30 Genesis Project, Overcoming a Number of Global Environmental Problems GENESIS Project（Global Energy Network Equipped with Solar cells and International Superconductor grids）: Photovoltaic power generation systems installed across the world’s deserts and connected via superconductive cable.
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