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A Structural Econometric Model of the Canadian Wheat Sector

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A Structural Econometric Model of the Canadian Wheat Sector f A884te w....... states Department of Agriculture A Structural Economic Research Service Econometric Model of Technical Bulletin Number 1733 the Canadian Wheat Sector Ä Kenneth W. Bailey CONVERSION CHART 1 metric ton (mt) of wheat = 36.743711 bushels (bu) 1 metric ton of barley = 45.929637 bushels 1 metric ton = 2,204.622 pounds 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres SALES INFORMATION Additional copies of this report can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. Order by title and series number. Write to the above address for price information, or call the GPO order desk at (202) 783-3238. You may also charge your purchase by telephone to your VISA, MasterCard, Choice, or GPO Deposit Account. Bulk discounts are available. Foreign customers, please add 25 percent extra for postage. Microfiche copies ($6.50 each) can be purchased from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161. Order by title and series number. Enclose a check or money order payable to NTIS; add $3 handling charge for each order. Call NTIS at (703) 487-4650 and charge your purchase to your VISA, MasterCard, American Express, or NTIS Deposit Account. NTIS will RUSH your order within 24 hours for an extra $10; call (800) 336-4700. The Economic Research Service has no copies for free distribution. A Structural Econometric Model of the Canadian Wheat Sector. By Kenneth W. Bailey. Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Technical Bulletin No. 1733. ABSTRACT This improved model of the Canadian wheat sector incorporates the effect of beginning wheat stocks on producer price expectations, predicts Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) behavior in setting various prices, and estimates the mathematical relationships (elasticities) between U.S. grain prices and Canadian wheat exports. The model reveals that a sustained 20-percent decrease in the U.S. wheat loan rate beginning in 1986 would result in a 20-percent decrease in Canadian wheat exports that same year, a A2-percent decrease by 1990, and a 96-percent decrease in the longrun from the baseline, assuming all else remains constant. A similar decrease in the U.S. com loan rate—holding U.S. wheat loan rates and all else constant at 1985 levels—will result in a 5-percent increase in Canadian wheat exports in 1986, a 20-percent increase by 1990, and an 86-percent increase in the longrun from the baseline. Keywords: Wheat, Canada, econometric, Canadian Wheat Board, dynamic elasticity. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Richard Downey and Eileen Krakar of Agriculture Canada and J. Michael Price, Bob Green, Suchada Langley, Mary Anne Normile, and Pat Weisgerber of the Economic Research Service for their comments and reviews; Florence Singer of the Economic Research Service for her statistical assistance; Sharon Lee of the Economics Management Staff for editorial assistance; and Susan DeGeorge of the Economics Management Staff for graphics assistance. Washington, DC 20005-4788 September 1987 CONTENTS PaRe SUMMARY iii INTRODUCTION 1 CANADIAN WHEAT SECTOR 1 Production Patterns 2 Wheat Exports 2 Canadian Wheat Board 2 Canadian Grain Coitmiission 7 CANADIAN POLICIES SUPPORTING WHEAT 8 Transportation Policies 8 Stabilization Policies 9 CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE CANADIAN WHEAT SECTOR 10 Canadian Wheat Supply Block 10 Canadian Wheat Demand Block 13 Canadian Wheat Price Block 14 Other Variables and Data 17 EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES 18 Canadian Supply and Utilization 18 Price Linkage Equations 24 Model Validation 34 Elasticity of Canadian Wheat Excess Supply 44 REFERENCES 50 APPENDIX 1-~DATA IN THE ANALYSIS 53 APPENDIX 2—THEORETICAL SUPPLY MODEL 60 APPENDIX 3~-VARIABLE DESCRIPTION LIST 64 11 SUMMARY This report develops an econometric model of the Canadian wheat sector. The model, representing an improvement to existing models, incorporates the effect of beginning wheat stocks on producer price expectations, predicts the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) behavior in setting various prices, and estimates the mathematical relationship (elasticities) between U.S. grain prices and Canadian wheat exports. The model reveals that a sustained 20-percent decrease in the U.S. wheat loan rate beginning in 1986 will result in a 20-percent decrease in Canadian wheat exports that same year, a 42-percent decrease by 1990, and a 96-percent decrease in the longrun from the baseline, assuming all else remains constant. A similar decrease in the U.S. com loan rate—holding U.S. wheat loan rates and all else constant at 1985 levels—will result in a 5-percent increase in Canadian wheat exports in 1986, a 20-percent increase by 1990, and an 86-percent increase in the long- run from the baseline. The model explains the structure of the Canadian wheat sector and how wheat prices in the United States affect it. The model represents an improvement because it explicitly accounts for the structural and institutional characteristics of the Canadian wheat sector. For example, the model reflects how mounting Canadian wheat stocks lower producer expectations of future CWB returns, thereby reducing wheat plantings. Trade analysts will find this model useful in developing or improving the Canadian wheat component of world trade models. The model results indicate that the elasticities of Canadian wheat exports with respect to the U.S. wheat and corn loan rates are 0.98 and -0.23 in the shortrun, 2.09 and -1.03 in the intermediate run, and 4.81 and -4.29 in the longrun, respectively. For example, the results indicate that a 10-percent increase in the U.S. wheat price will result in a 9.8-percent increase in Canadian wheat exports in the shortrun. A similar change in the U.S. com price will result in increases in Canadian barley prices causing a 2.3-percent decrease in Canadian wheat exports. Policymakers will find the model useful in analyzing the effects of changes in Canadian and U.S. policy on the Canadian wheat sector. Ill A Structural Econometric Model of the Canadian Wheat Sector Kenneth W. Bailey * INTRODUCTION Changes in international competition for wheat trade require a more effective model for assessing world supply and demand for wheat. Most world trade models are empirically weak and inadequate in reflecting changes in foreign policies on the excess demand facing the United States. This report develops a modeling subsystem of the Canadian wheat sector for use in a nonspatial equilibrium world wheat trade model. The report reviews the structure of the Canadian wheat sector, develops a conceptual model of the sector, and estimates an econometric model. Thompson notes that a major flaw with most world trade models has been their lack of sufficient empirical content (30).!/ This report emphasizes a careful review of the structure of the Canadian wheat sector, a review of existing Canadian wheat sector models, and an improvement in empirical content. The model reflects the behavior of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) in setting various production, consumption, and export prices and links these prices to U.S. prices. The model expands the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator (FAPSIM) model to include Canada.2/ The export demand components of the FAPSIM model are improved by the development of structural country and/or region models that more accurately assess the world excess demand facing the United States. Hence, this report is useful to trade analysts interested in developing or improving the Canadian wheat component of world trade models. The model will also be useful to policymakers in analyzing the effect of changes in Canadian and U.S. policy on the Canadian wheat sector. CANADIAN WHEAT SECTOR The Canadian wheat belt occupies the lower portion of the Canadian Western Provinces and borders the U.S. north-central wheat belt (Montana, South ^Agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Agriculture and Trade Analysis Division. 1/ Underscored numbers in parentheses refer to sources listed in the References. 2/ For more information on the FAPSIM model, see (10) and (24). Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota), indicating a similarity of soil and environmental conditions between the two countries (fig. 1). This similarity ends, however, when the crop is harvested due to vast differences in farm policies between the two countries.3/ Production Patterns In Canada, wheat is the number one field crop in terms of area planted, followed by barley, rapeseed, and oats (fig. 2). Most of Canada's wheat is grown in the three Western Prairie Provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, with small amounts grown in the Peace River Valley on the Alberta-British Columbia border and in Eastern Canada (fig. 1). Wheat yields are extremely volatile from year to year, reflecting the constraints of a short growing season, poorly timed rainfall, drought, and an occasional early freeze. Wheat yields have increased over the last 20 years due to technological improvements in inputs but only at an estimated rate of 0.6 bushels per year. Wheat Exports Wheat is the leading Canadian grain export, followed by barley, rapeseed, and oats (fig. 3). Most of Canada's wheat is of a hard variety with high protein content and is grown and marketed for export purposes. Between 1971 and 1985, approximately 80 percent of all hectares sown to wheat produced a crop destined for the export market. In 1984/85, Canada exported 17.5 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat, including durum wheat and flour, which was down 19 percent from the 21.8 mmt in 1983/84 (table 1). Canada's top five importers are the Soviet Union, China, Japan, Brazil, and Cuba, which accounted for 69 percent of all Canadian wheat exports in 1984/85. The Soviet Union and Japan historically import No. 1 Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) grade wheat of 12.5-percent protein and above, with smaller amounts of No.
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