Wednesday, March 4, 2015 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co. Ltd. Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research PAX Global (327 HK) Alex NG +852 3189 6125 China payment giant going global; Initiate with BUY
[email protected] ■ Initiate BUY for PAX Global with 12-month TP of HK$9.8, based on 20x FY15E P/E, in line with global peers 20.9x FY15E P/E. Marley NGAN ■ Accelerated product roadmap (mPOS/NFC/EMV/multi-lane), major +852 3189 6635 market breakthroughs (US/Brazil) and strong R&D innovations to
[email protected] fuel 29% FY14E-16E EPS CAGR growth on mobile payment trend. ■ Expect near-term catalysts from M&A, continued share gains and WHAT’S NEW Apple PAY to support further multiple expansions. Initiation Multi-year growth to transform into global payment giant Previous N/A PAX Global is No.3 player in global e-payment terminal market (9% mkt Price HK$7.21 share), benefiting from non-cash payment secular trend and continued 12-month Target Price consolidation amid Verifone’s weakness (Global No. 2). After years of HK$9.8 (36%) (Potential upside) R&D investment in product upgrades (NFC/multi-lane), qualifications (EMV/PCI) and overseas penetration (US/Brazil), we believe PAX is now Previous N/A poised to harvest with 27%/29% revenue/earnings CAGR during FY14E- 16E, thanks to 22% terminal shipment CARG and increasing ASP. Price Performance 327 HK HSI Product innovations to capture mobile payments cycle 200% Given rapid adoption of mobile payments, we believe PAX is set to be a 150% major beneficiary of the replacement cycle with strong product pipeline 100% (NFC/EMV/mPOS/QR-code) and expanding sales network, while Apple Pay will possibly act as a further stimulant to market adoption of NFC 50% terminals in US and worldwide.