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Developing the Next Generation of Scenario Planning Software Developing the Next Generation Sustainability A Symposium on the UT Campus: of Scenario Planning Software Robert Paterson, PhD1 Associate Professor School of Architecture [email protected] Elizabeth Mueller, PhD Associate Professor School of Architecture School of Social Work [email protected] Developing the NextDeveloping of Scenario Generation This presentation reports on the design as well as possible planning and design and experience of a UT team of faculty solutions when indices begin to go in that have been developing the next an undesirable direction; (5) an online SoftwarePlanning generation of scenario planning software public involvement feedback system under a HUD Sustainable Communities so scenario planning workshops can be Implementation grant. The project aim explored by the broader public through is to create software that corrects many on-line engagement interfaces; and shortcomings of current professional (6) the integration of 3D simulation scenario planning software. The project modeling with the scenario software is creating an open source, freeware (as well as compatibility with ESRI’s suite of scenario planning software CityEngine software for future 3D tools that have several important and modeling). The goals of the project innovative elements: (1) a standardized are to make scenario planning for data schema for planning information sustainability in Texas, and the US, more systems to streamline scenario planning (1) accessible, (2) more user friendly, (3) applications; (2) a GIS data wizard system more powerful in terms of the range of on an Arc-GIS platform that repairs analytics, and (4) more adaptable for an common data errors in creating data open source GIS platform. layers needed for scenario planning Essays to reduce user transaction costs; (3) a The Sustainable Communities more user friendly, interactive scenario Partnership and Scenario Planning software package with a broader array of sustainability metrics and analytics In June 2009, the Secretary of the built on the Envision Tomorrow software US Department of Housing Urban package as the backbone; (4) a social Development (US HUD), Shaun learning and design solutions interface Donovan, announced the Sustainable that teaches planners and laypersons Communities Planning initiative about various sustainability indicators coordinated within the Federal Sustainability A Symposium on the UT Campus: Figure 1. 2010-2011 Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grantees (2012)4 government’s Interagency Partnership In 2011, US HUD expanded the initial the network of partners that formed for Sustainable Communities. The planning grant program to include a to develop the software suite that will Obama Administration goal was to second category of grant recipients-- be completed by the end of 2013. It the NextDeveloping of Scenario Generation transform the way federal grants Detailed Execution Plans and Programs next describes the problems that the and programs facilitate sustainable for those regions that already had research team identified from the development practices in US completed and adopted a regional literature and from their own Central metropolitan regions by creating sustainability plan.2 An additional $67 Texas scenario planning experience SoftwarePlanning better interagency coordination and million in grant funds became available that the software design will address. cooperation, and providing planning for the second year of the program. The third section of the essay describes and implementation grants to regions Seventy-four regions were recipients of the software components developed that propose to collaborate and define the Sustainable Community grants (see or under development to date. The a shared vision of sustainability through figure 1 below), however the Interagency essay concludes with a discussion of the regional planning. That initiative led Partnership for Sustainable Communities long-term objectives for the software on to the creation of the new Office of itself boasts $3.5 billion in directed an open source platform with internet Sustainable Housing and Communities support to metropolitan regions in the browser accessibility. within HUD to coordinate the initial US.3 $100 million grant program. Three 1. Next Generation Scenario Planning federal agencies--the US Department A consortium of Central Texas Tool Needs? Lessons from Central Texas of Transportation (USDOT), the US governments, NGOs and interest Scenario Planning Experience Environmental Protection Agency (US groups received one of the 2011 EPA) and US HUD--committed to focus Sustainable Communities Partnership Over the last two decades, several their major grant and infrastructure implementation grants. The Consortium Central Texas communities have used investments to help advance six proposed to build off the region’s prior scenario planning to explore alternative Essays overarching Livability Principles. regional planning ventures to develop land development options as well as The Livability Principles aim to help a next generation scenario based to chart a vision for the region’s future. American families gain better access planning software suite to help the The University of Texas at Austin faculty to affordable housing, have access to region’s 20+ cities and five counties have been involved in many of those more transportation options with lower implement the preferred regional vision processes as both project leaders and as transportation costs, all while protecting adopted through the Envision Central participants. One of the more influential the environment and reducing energy Texas process. This essay describes the examples was the 1995 Community dependence on fossil fuels. Central Texas regional collaboration and Vision Project led by UT faculty members Kent Butler, Bob Paterson and Susan interests (Clark-Madison, 1998). It was Texas’ future. Since “sprawl” was the Sustainability A Symposium on the UT Campus: Handy. Sponsored by the regional transit the creative alternatives explored with predominant development pattern authority—CapMetro—the UT team Peter Calthorpe that eventually broke occurring in Austin at that time, conducted two regional charrettes the impasse between the city, neighbors this became the baseline scenario’s with follow up focus groups to explore and developers. Several member of the pejorative title (by many). That baseline alternative land use and transportation UT faculty research team attended these scenario served as the basis for development models for Central Texas. events and participated as citizens at the comparing alternative future growth At the largest event, over 300 people tables. scenarios through participatory planning participated in the scenario planning processes. To create these scenarios, process in the Austin City Coliseum The fourth, and undoubtedly most a series of geographically dispersed exploring alternative development important scenario planning effort in region-wide public workshops were scenarios for several different land use Central Texas prior to 2012, was the conducted to collect opinions and context (e.g., greenfield edge, suburban regional visioning and scenario planning data from residents on how to shape corridor and urban infill development). that was undertaken by the non-profit future development. Hundreds of The guiding principles provided group Envision Central Texas (ECT). residents of different parts of Central guidance to the City of Austin’s crafting ECT was formed in 2001 by coalition of Texas worked with facilitators and of a Neo-traditional Development community, business and government planners to explore different options ordinance.5 leaders from Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, for land use, transportation and open Travis and Williamson counties to discuss space preservation. The four scenarios A second effort, the Montopolis Land Use the development of a common vision explored were: Study, led by Professors Bob Paterson for the Central Texas’s growth for the the NextDeveloping of Scenario Generation and Kent Butler6 (1996) explored four next 40 years. ECT employed Fregonese Scenario A - Trend (sprawl model), alternative development scenarios Calthorpe Associates (FCA) to manage through a participatory planning process the scenario planning process, including Scenario B - Corridors (with growth for a low income neighborhood that the development of sustainability concentrated within one mile of major SoftwarePlanning was being impacted by the relocation feedback indicators. Over the next four transportation corridors with greater of the regional commercial airport to years the group worked to develop amounts of mixed-use, infill and its southeastern border. Alternative The Vision for Central Texas, a regional redevelopment than Scenario A), development scenarios for the growth plan for 1.25 million additional community were discursively explored residents and 800,000 new jobs over 20 Scenario C -New Towns (concentrated with interdisciplinary teams of architects, to 40 years in the five-county region. The clustered development in new and planners and landscape architects formal ECT planning process began with existing towns throughout the region working with community residents an inventory of the region. Focus groups and slightly more redevelopment and within the community recreation center. and a telephone survey were conducted mixed-use development than Scenario The project provided alternative land to find out what Central Texans most B). Scenario C also offered
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