Liquidity and Market Working efficiency: European Papers in Evidence from the World’s Largest Carbon Exchange Responsible Banking & By Gbenga Ibikunle, Andros Gregoriou, Andreas G. F. Finance Hoepner and Mark Rhodes Abstract: We apply Chordia et al.’s (2008) conception of short-horizon return predictability as inverse indicator of market efficiency to the analysis of instruments on the world’s largest carbon exchange, ICE’s ECX. We find strong relationship between liquidity and market efficiency such that when spreads narrow, return predictability diminishes. This is more pronounced for the highest WP Nº 12-004 trading carbon futures and during periods of low liquidity. Since the start of trading in the Kyoto commitment period th of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) prices 4 Quarter 2012 continuously moved nearer to unity with random walk benchmarks, and this improves from year to year. Overall, our findings suggest trading quality in the EU-ETS has improved markedly and matures over the 2008-2011 compliance years. These findings are significant for global climate change policy. Liquidity and Market efficiency: European Evidence from the World’s Largest Carbon Exchange Gbenga Ibikunle Corresponding Author University of Edinburgh Business School University of Edinburgh 29 Buccleuch Place Edinburgh, EH8 9JS
[email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 1316515186 Andros Gregoriou Hull University Business School University of Hull Hull, HU6 7RX
[email protected] Andreas G. F. Hoepner School of Management University of St. Andrews St Andrews, KY16 9RJ
[email protected] Mark Rhodes Hull University Business School University of Hull Hull, HU6 7RX
[email protected] 1 Liquidity and Market efficiency: European Evidence from the World’s Largest Carbon Exchange Abstract We apply Chordia et al.’s (2008) conception of short-horizon return predictability as inverse indicator of market efficiency to the analysis of instruments on the world’s largest carbon exchange, ICE’s ECX.