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Apple Inc AAPL (NAS) | QQQ Morningstar Equity Research Apple Inc AAPL (NAS) | QQQ Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat™ Moat Trend™ Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry Group 541.65 USD 570.00 USD 342.00 USD 883.50 USD High Narrow Positive Standard AA- Computer Hardware Apple will have to fend off increased competition from Vital Statistics Android-based competitors in the years ahead. Market Cap (USD Mil) 483,146 52-Week High (USD) 575.13 52-Week Low (USD) 385.10 Brian Colello, CPA Investment Thesis 28 Jan 2014 52-Week Total Return % 29.1 Senior Analyst [email protected] We believe Apple's strength lies in its experience and expertise in YTD Total Return % -2.9 +1 (312) 384-3742 Last Fiscal Year End 30 Sep 2013 integrating hardware, software, services, and third-party 5-Yr Forward Revenue CAGR % 3.2 applications into differentiated devices that allow Apple to capture 5-Yr Forward EPS CAGR % 1.2 a premium on hardware sales. Although Apple has a sterling brand, Price/Fair Value 0.95 robust product pipeline, and ample opportunity to gain share in its Valuation Summary and Forecasts The primary analyst covering this company various end markets, short product life cycles and intense does not own its stock. Fiscal Year: 2012 2013 2014(E) 2015(E) competition will prevent the firm from resting on its laurels or Price/Earnings 15.1 12.0 12.6 12.2 Research as of 10 Mar 2014 carving out a wide economic moat, in our opinion. EV/EBITDA 10.2 7.3 7.5 7.5 Estimates as of 31 Jan 2014 EV/EBIT 10.8 8.3 8.7 9.2 Pricing data through 01 Apr 2014 Rating updated as of 01 Apr 2014 We believe Apple has developed a narrow economic moat, thanks Free Cash Flow Yield % 6.8 10.6 9.3 8.9 Dividend Yield % 0.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 to switching costs related to a variety of attributes around the iOS Currency amounts expressed with "$" are in U.S. dollars (USD) unless otherwise denoted. platform that may make current iOS users more reluctant to stray outside the Apple ecosystem for future purchases. However, much Financial Summary and Forecasts (USD Mil) of Apple's exponential growth in recent years has stemmed not Fiscal Year: 2012 2013 2014(E) 2015(E) from the firm's moat, but from the achievement of building the first Revenue 156,508 170,910 183,252 190,648 Revenue YoY % 44.6 9.2 7.2 4.0 truly revolutionary smartphone, the iPhone, that integrated EBIT 55,241 48,999 52,640 50,112 Contents hardware and software, as well as a robust apps store and EBIT YoY % 63.5 -11.3 7.4 -4.8 ecosystem that attracted new users to platform. Apple's Investment Thesis 1 Net Income, Adjusted 41,733 37,037 38,872 37,193 first-mover advantage may be diminishing, and "easy growth" Morningstar Analysis Net Income YoY % 61.0 -11.3 5.0 -4.3 coming from early smartphone adopters may be winding down as Analyst Note - Diluted EPS 44.15 39.75 43.12 44.45 Valuation, Growth and Profitability 2 the smartphone market moves up the adoption curve and Diluted EPS YoY % 59.5 -10.0 8.5 3.1 Scenario Analysis 2 competition ramps up from Samsung and others. Yet we still Free Cash Flow 39,323 41,483 39,448 37,512 Economic Moat 3 foresee iPhone growth, coming from both attracting new customers Free Cash Flow YoY % 37.5 5.5 -4.9 -4.9 Moat Trend 4 to iOS (mostly in emerging markets, although we still see U.S. Historical/forecast data sources are Morningstar Estimates and may reflect adjustments. Analyst Note: EPS on a GAAP basis Bulls Say/Bears Say 6 growth as well) and retaining Apple's existing premium iPhone Credit Analysis customers, where we think the company's moat will play an Profile Financial Health 7 increasingly important role. A partnership with China Mobile, the Capital Structure 7 world’s largest wireless carrier, should also give iPhone growth a Apple designs consumer electronic devices, including PCs (Mac), tablets Enterprise Risk 8 shot in the arm. (iPad), phones (iPhone), and portable music players (iPod). Apple's products Management & Ownership 9 run internally developed software, and this integration of hardware and Analyst Note Archive 11 software often allows the firm to maintain premium pricing for its devices. Ultimately, we think future smartphone and tablet competition will Additional Information - Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stem from software and services, as hardware is already Morningstar Analyst Forecasts 20 stores and third-party retailers. Comparable Company Analysis 24 approaching commoditization. We view Apple as well positioned to develop and expand enough services to enhance the user Methodology for Valuing Companies 26 experience, in order to build switching costs that will help the firm SAMPLEretain customers and generate significant repeat purchases will be critical for future iPhone growth in the years ahead. © Morningstar 2014. All Rights Reserved. Morningstar's Credit Ratings & Research is produced and offered by Morningstar, Inc., which is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization Page 1 of 29 (“NRSRO”). Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Morningstar Equity Research Apple Inc AAPL (NAS) | QQQ Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat™ Moat Trend™ Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry Group 541.65 USD 570.00 USD 342.00 USD 883.50 USD High Narrow Positive Standard AA- Computer Hardware Morningstar Analysis Valuation, Growth and Profitability 10 Mar 2014 margin compression, albeit with relatively slower unit sales Our fair value estimate for Apple is $570 per share, which growth. In turn, operating margins should fall to the implies fiscal 2014 (ending September 2014) price/earnings mid-20% range five years out. Our fair value uncertainty of 13.5 times, and only 10 times after excluding $157 per rating for Apple is high. share of net cash on hand as of December 2013. We project revenue growth of 6% in fiscal 2014, down from our prior Scenario Analysis projection of 13%. Apple profited from successful launches Our base-case scenario for Apple projects average revenue of new devices such as the iPhone 5s, but follow up sales growth of 3% per year from fiscal 2014 to fiscal 2018, as in the March 2014 quarter were below our expectations, well as average operating margins of 25% over our five-year which points to even lower revenue growth through the rest forecast period. Our base scenario projects annual average of fiscal 2014 as these products age. Longer term, Apple revenue growth of 3% for the iPhone and 6% for the iPad, should still attract late smartphone adopters in developed while unit sales grow at average annual rates of 5% and markets and new customers in emerging markets, especially 7%, respectively. as Apple’s partnership with China Mobile, the world’s largest wireless carrier, begins to pay dividends. As more In our bullish scenario, we assume that Apple continues to and more consumers are previous smartphone owners, build on its tremendous success with the iPhone, not only rather than first-time buyers, we think Apple has a good benefiting from tailwinds surrounding smartphone growth, chance to retain a sizable portion of its iOS user base today, but maintaining premium pricing for its devices. Similarly, and perhaps gain further share at the high end of the market. we project 3% higher unit growth for the iPad above our However, although Apple has taken on the strategy of base-case assumptions. We also make more optimistic maintaining premium pricing, which may support gross assumptions about all other revenue streams. We maintain margins in the years ahead, such pricing may weigh on our base-case gross margin projections for each product future revenue growth. In turn, we model low single-digit line, but as iPhone becomes a greater portion of overall iPhone revenue growth in fiscal 2015 and beyond. revenue, we forecast that Apple's gross margins and operating margins won't decline as quickly as in our We project solid iPad revenue growth in fiscal 2014 and base-case assumptions. Under these bullish assumptions, 2015, as this device both displaces PCs and is purchased as Apple would see average revenue growth of 8% per year a third device alongside PCs and phones, but minimal growth and average operating margins of 28%, and our fair value thereafter as Apple maintains premium pricing on these estimate would be $730 per share.
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