Bulkington Paramics Supplementary Local Plan Testing Project Title Bulkington Paramics Job Number VM175125

Bulkington Paramics Supplementary Local Plan Testing Project title Bulkington Paramics Job number VM175125 cc Warwickshire County Council File reference TN.002 Prepared by Connor Heyward Date 30 January 2018 Introduction 1. Vectos Microsim (VM) has been asked by Warwickshire County Council (WCC) to provide modelling assistance to assess the implications of allocating 2 large residential development sites in the village of Bulkington. 2. This Note sets out our approach to the testing alongside the emerging finding. Background 3. WCC have provided VM with the details of two key residential development sites which are likely to come forward through the Local Plan for the purposes of testing within the existing Bulkington Paramics models. 4. The developments have previously been tested within the Nuneaton and Bedworth Wide Area (NBWA) model which has underpinned the Local Plan testing to date. Recently the NBWA model was recalibrated and revalidated to a 2016 Base year and, as a result of the recalibration exercise, Bulkington was removed from the network extent. 5. To compensate for the omission of Bulkington from the wide area model, a much smaller model of the village area was derived so that localised assessments could be undertaken to inform the appraisal of development impacts in the area. 6. This approach was considered appropriate as it is recognised that, due to the presence of two allocated sites within the village area, an assessment of the village was required and that completing an assessment in a more localised model would mean that a greater degree of attention would be afforded to the Bulkington area than was previously the case within the Strategic Transport Assessment (STA) work completed thus far. 7. It should be recognised, however, that the level of detail afforded to this round of testing would be considered to be excessive in the context of the recently completed STA but the assessment has been undertaken alongside an update of the Local Plan testing in the wide area model for completeness. 8. Unlike the STA work completed to date, any findings and/or schemes identified as a result of the detailed assessment of the Bulkington network would likely be directly attributable to the sites being delivered in the Bulkington area rather than being cumulative proposals as is Page: 2 the case with the majority of schemes identified through the NBBC Local Plan appraisal work to date. 9. The sites that have been identified and included within the assessment are located East and West of the village of Bulkington. 10. The area of coverage achieved by the Bulkington model, alongside the location of the two sites being tested, is outlined within Figure 1 below: Figure 1: Model Extent & Development Areas Objectives 11. The objectives of this assessment are as follows: To determine the likely cumulative impacts of allocating the two development sites within the Bulkington area. To identify an appropriate highway mitigation strategy to support the delivery of both allocated sites whilst minimising the highway impacts. Methodology 12. The objectives outlined previously were addressed via a number of key stages as follows: The development proposals were reviewed against existing distribution patterns currently observed in WCCs Mobile Network Data (MND) resource (which is based Page: 3 on 2016 travel patterns across the county) alongside an agreed set of trip generation parameters. The 2031 Bulkington Reference Case model was updated to include the two new Local Plan sites at Land East of Bulkington and Land West of Bulkington. The forecasting assumptions were adjusted on the basis that it is assumed that the new developments will comprise the majority of internal growth for the Bulkington area. The development demands were assigned to the model and the network performance was reviewed in order that a localised infrastructure strategy could be identified. 13. The remainder of this note presents the assessment assumptions and results. Forecasting Methodology Background Growth 14. The Bulkington model has previously been forecast in a manner which takes cognisance of both internal and external growth parameters. Zones that exist within the study area are classified as internal, while zones that are on the periphery of the model network and load traffic into the area are classified as external, therefore different growth factors were assigned to the differing zone types. 15. The 2031 Reference Case model utilised NTEM origin and destination factors output from TEMPro, while the 2031 Sensitivity model used the larger NTM adjusted (Rural Principal Roads) factor (also from TEMPro). The purpose of the NTM adjustment is to provide a ‘high growth’ sensitivity test which will, in turn, provide an indication of the maximum capacity threshold, if applicable, of any of the schemes identified. 16. Within the scenarios which contain the developments, it is assumed that there will be no additional internal growth associated with the individual internal zones as that is now considered to be catered for via the interaction between these zones and the new ‘internal’ zones created by the development areas. The external forecasting, which is subject to a greater degree of uncertainty, remained unchanged throughout. Development Trips 17. The proposed dwelling numbers for each of the sites to be tested are provided below: Table 1: Development Size (dwelling numbers) Site Site Location Numbers of Dwellings HSG7 Land East of Bulkington 196 HSG8 Land west of Bulkington 495 Page: 4 18. The number of dwellings for each site have been multiplied by the WCC residential trip rates as tabulated below: Table 2: WCC Residential Trip Rates Period In Out Total 0700 to 0800 0.08 0.33 0.41 0800 to 0900 0.12 0.48 0.6 0900 to 1000 0.12 0.22 0.34 0700 to 1000 0.32 1.03 1.35 1600 to 1700 0.35 0.11 0.46 1700 to 1800 0.48 0.12 0.6 1800 to 1900 0.36 0.11 0.47 1600 to 1900 1.19 0.34 1.53 19. The resultant peak hour development site demands are provided in the table below: Table 3: Development Site Trip Generation AM PM Site Site Location From To From To HSG7 Land East of Bulkington 172 53 59 199 HSG8 Land West of Bulkington 433 135 149 501 20. Mobile network data (MND) was used to inform the distribution of journeys across the model network from the Development sites. The MND utilised in this process was gathered by tracking the movements of Vodafone users as they travelled between lower super output areas (LSOAs) over a 25 day period (total number of days collected). Only data concerning the Tuesday to Thursday period was considered relevant to this process, meaning that 15 of the 25 days covered by the MND were used. Utilising this data enables an up‐to‐date and robust assessment of trip assignment exiting the developments. 21. The two developments are contained within different LSOAs; Nuneaton and Bedworth 014B and 014D. In this instance, the site distributions were calculated from the Nuneaton and Bedworth 014A LSOA as it contained the majority of residential dwellings in Bulkington, and consequently it provided a more accurate reflection of the likely development trip distribution pattern. It should therefore be noted both sites tested within this note follow the same distribution. 22. A summary of the AM and PM distribution from the Bulkington development sites based on approximate locations can be found in Table 4 overleaf and is accompanied by mapping in Figures 2 and 3: Page: 5 Table 4: Bulkington distribution based on 2015 Mobile Network Data Location AM Percentage PM Percentage Coventry 24.2% 18.7% Nuneaton 18.9% 23.6% Bedworth 17.4% 16.3% Solihull 3.8% 0.8% Stratford‐on‐Avon 3.8% 0.8% Warwick 3.0% 4.9% Hinckley and Bosworth 3.0% 7.3% North Warwickshire 3.0% 2.4% Rugby 3.0% 3.3% Harborough 1.5% 0.8% Tamworth 1.5% 0.8% Wolverhampton 1.5% Herefordshire 1.5% Milton Keynes 1.5% East Staffordshire 1.5% 4.1% Ansty 1.5% Wolvey 1.5% 0.8% Birmingham 0.8% 4.1% Dudley 0.8% Telford and Wrekin 0.8% 0.8% Blaby 0.8% Oadby and Wigston 0.8% 2.4% Northampton 0.8% Rushcliffe 0.8% 1.6% Oxford 0.8% Worcester 0.8% Wychavon 0.8% Lichfield 0.8% Sandwell 0.8% Walsall 0.8% Derby 0.8% South Derbyshire 0.8% Charnwood 0.8% Bromsgrove 0.8% Monks Kirby 0.8% 23. Trip assignment within the model network is determined by the dynamic assignment process within the model itself based on the most cost effective route to the destination. The route assignment out of the model area was calculated using Google Maps with typical traffic for the related AM or PM peak hour. The percentage distribution of trips through the Paramics zones can be found in Figures 4 and 5 below: Page: 6 Figure 2: AM Mobile Network Data Distribution Figure 3: PM Mobile Network Data Distribution Page: 7 Figure 4: Bulkington Developments Site Distribution by Zone ‐ AM Figure 5: Bulkington Developments Site Distribution by Zone ‐ PM 24. The total number of trips by hour and period, along with the percentage growth compared to the 2017 base year, is shown overleaf in Table 5. Page: 8 Table 5: Summary of Total Demand Summary by Scenario 0700 0800 0900 0700 AM 1600 1700 1800 1600 PM Model ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ % ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ % 0800 0900 1000 1000 grow 1700 1800 1900 1900 grow 2017 Base 1780 2371 1560 5712 ‐ 2403 2596 1853 6852 ‐ 2031 Reference 1969 2625 1725 6319 11% 2655 2869 2048 7572 11% 2031 Local Plan 2159 2885 1872 6916 21% 2843 3134 2270 8247 20% 2031 Sensitivity 2039 2718 1785 6543 15% 2750 2973 2122 7845 14% 2031 LP Sensitivity 2177 2906 1886 6969 22% 2865 3159 2288 8311 21% Mitigation Options 25.

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