COVER

1 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 EDITORIAL COMMITTEE: Communications: Russell E. Whitaker, Tech Mind, Inc.

Computing, Simon! D. Levy, MA, Linguistics Dept., University of Connecticut; Haskins Laborato- Linguistics: ries

Cryonics: Michael R. Perry, Ph.D; Director, Society for Venturism

Law, Politics: Tom Morrow, MA, University of Chicago Law School

Memetics: Keith Henson, Founder, L-5 Society

Nanotechnology: J.Storrs Hall, Rutgers University, Laboratory for Computer Science Research

Max More, MA, Philosophy Dept., University of Southern California Philosophy, Politics: Prof. Gregory Benford, Physics Dept., University of California, Irvine Physics: David Krieger, MLS Science: Mark Plus, MS; Editor, Venturist Monthly News Transhumanities: • digital Economy (encryption; digital money) • scientific eschatology • artificial life • futurist morality • electronic communications and reviews of media on these topics.

Edited by Max More. Subscriptions and letters can be sent to EXTROPY, P.O. Box 57306, Los Angeles, CA 90057-0306. Phone: (213) 484-6383. E-mail to: [email protected]

EXTROPY is published twice a year. Checks payable Extropy Institute to “EXTROPY”. Subscriptions will start with the cur- rent issue in print unless you specify otherwise.

Editor: Max More Subscriptions: USA: $9/year. 2-years: $18 Canada and Mexico: $10year. EXTROPY: The Journal of Transhumanist Thought is Overseas: $14/year (air); $12 (surface). a journal of ideas, dedicated to discussing and Institutions: USA, Canada, Mexico: $20/year. Over- developing themes in the following areas: • seas: $26/year (air). Transhumanism and futurist philosophy • life extension, immortalism and cryonics BACK ISSUES: • artificial intelligence (AI) and uploading #8: $4.50 #7: $4.50 #5,6: $4 each #1,2,4: $3 each • smart drugs (nootropics) and intelligence increase See insert for details of back issue contents. technologies • nanotechnology applications EXTROPY INSTITUTE • memetics Membership (Includes subscriptions to Extropy and • space habitation the bi-monthly newsletter Exponent.): • spontaneous orders (free markets, neural networks, USA: $30 evolutionary processes, etc) Canada/Mexico: $33 • science fiction Overseas: $40 • extropic psychology

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 2 EEXXTRTROPYOPY #9#9 Summer 1992 (Vol.4, No.1)

Editorial Max More 04

The Extropian Principles (2.0) Max More 05

Extropy Institute (ExI) Launches Max More 09

Persons, Programs, and Uploading Consciousness David Justin Ross 12

Nanotechnology and Faith J. Storrs Hall 17

The Making of a Small World R. Michael Perry 18

Genetic Algorithms (Neurocomputing 6) Simon! D. Levy 20

Time Travel and Computing Hans Moravec 22

Futique Neologisms 3 29

Exercise and Longevity Fran Finney 30

The Transhuman Taste: The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Tipler and Barrow) 34 Reviewed by David Krieger The Blind Watchmaker (Dawkins) 36 Reviewed by Simon! D. Levy Economist Against the Apocalyptics (Books by Julian Simon) 37 Max More Bionomics: The Inevitability of Capitalism (Rothschild) 41 Reviewed by Harry Schapiro

Contributors 43

3 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 EDITORIAL

MORE CHANGES fiction by Mike Perry. You may want to pass this around your non- immortalist friends. Extropy sees further evolution with this issue. The most Simon! D. Levy continues his Neurocomputation series obvious change is the shift to a full size 8.5" x 11" format. The new with an introduction to genetic algorithms, yet another computa- format, consistent with that of major publications, should help in tional application of spontaneous ordering. the expansion of shop distribution and sales. Comments on and Roboticist Hans Moravec, author of the classic extropian suggestions for further improvements in Extropy's format – in book Mind Children, explains the ways in which physics might addition to its content – are always welcome. allow time travel, and shows how this might be applied to solving Next issue will see some changes as a result of Extropy otherwise intractable computational problems. Institute's new publication, Exponent. Exponent will appear bi- The Futique Neologisms series continues this issue, with monthly in newsletter format. It will feature reviews of fiction and a further installment of new terms for thinking about the future. non-fiction books, movies, magazines, and software. Exponent In “Exercise and Longevity”, Fran Finney reviews the scien- will also carry the Intelligence At Work science updates column tific evidence for the life-extending effects of exercise. that has previously appeared here, and a section presenting The Transhuman Taste contains four reviews: David Krieger skeptical analyses of environmental issues. reviews The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, a lengthy work Extropy will no longer carry many book reviews, though it will examining cosmological questions with a decidedly Extropian still carry longer reviews and review essays. This publication will perspective. Simon! D. Levy reviews evolutionary biologist Rich- specialize in detailed explanations and analyses of topics of ard Dawkin's The Blind Watchmaker – a brilliant exposition of interest to Extropians: Life extension, cryonics, intelligence in- evolutionary theory and how it explains life far better than reli- creasing technologies, advanced computing, neural-computer gious myths. I review three of economist Julian Simon's books integration, memetic analysis, nanotechnology, space habita- in “Economist Against the Apocalyptics.” Simon's works provide tion, self-transformative psychological techniques, artificial life, a needed counterpoint to environmentalist doomsayers. Finally, electronic communications, computational markets (digital Harry Shapiro reviews Bionomics, which draws parallels be- economy), and the limits of physics. tween biology and economy. THIS ISSUE The Extropian Principles is a revised version of the Prin- IN FUTURE ISSUES ciples that appeared three years ago in Extropy #6. The new The long-awaited articles on the future of electronic commu- version adds the principle of spontaneous order, since it's clear nications, and on digital economy (personal communication that spontaneously ordering processes are an essential ele- encryption, digital money), should be appearing soon. ment of the Extropian worldview – as explained at length in “Order #10 will see an exposition of the Extropian principle of Self- Without Orderers” in Extropy #7 (Spring 1991). Explanations of Transformation, examining its psychological, philosophical, the principles have been expanded and some new suggested and technological aspects. readings added to the list. The next issue will also feature another piece by leading “Extropy Institute Launches” announces the incorporation roboticist Hans Moravec on our expansion into the cosmos. of the Extropy Institute (ExI) and some of its projects. Expect to see a memetic analysis of the spread of Extropian David Ross provides a lucid and helpful discussion of ideas. uploading – the transfer of a human's consciousness into a Other possibilities include an introduction to molecular- computer, responding to those who doubt it to be possible and scale computing, analyses of environmental issues, applica- determining the conditions that are necessary for it to be achieved. tions of personal identity theory, and discussions of intellectual J. Storrs Hall, in “Nanotechnology and Faith” looks at differ- property and “the Singularity”. ent ways of thinking about nanotechnology, warning us against allowing our thinking to become religious in nature. [Continued on p.11] “The Making of a Small World” is a delightful piece of short Editorial (cont. from p.4)

EXTROPY - the process of increasing intelligence, information, energy, life, experience, diversity, opportunity and growth. Extropianism is the philosophy that seeks to increase extropy. The Extropian Principles are: (1) Boundless Expansion; (2) Self-Transformation; (3) Intelligent Technology; (4) Spontaneous Order; (5) Dynamic Optimism.

TRANSHUMANISM - Philosophies of life (such as Extropianism) that seek the continuation and acceleration of the evolution of intelligent life beyond its currently human form and human limitations by means of science and technology, guided by progressive principles and values, while rejecting dogma and religion.

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 4 The Extropian Principles V. 2.0 Max More Executive Director, Extropy Institute

1. Boundless Expansion - Seeking more intelligence, wisdom, and personal power, an unlimited lifespan, and removal of natural, social, biological, and psychological limits to self-actualization and self-realization. Overcoming limits on our personal and social progress and possibilities. Expan- sion into the universe and infinite existence.

2. Self-Transformation - A commitment to continual moral, intellectual, and physical self- improvement, using reason and critical thinking, personal responsibility, and experimentation. Biologi- cal and neurological augmentation.

3. Intelligent Technology - Applying science and technology to transcend “natural” limits imposed by our biological heritage and environment.

4. Spontaneous Order - Promotion of decentralized, voluntaristic social coordination mecha- nisms. Fostering of tolerance, diversity, long-term planning, individual incentives and personal liberties.

5. Dynamic Optimism - Positive expectations to fuel dynamic action. Promotion of a positive, empowering attitude towards our individual future and that of all intelligent beings. Rejection both of blind faith and stagnant pessimism.

These principles are further explicated mentation. With the advent of the concep- our lives. For many the future will bring an below. In depth treatments can be found tual consciousness of humankind, the exodus from Earth – the womb of human in various issues of EXTROPY: The Jour- rate of advancement sharply accelerated and transhuman intelligence – expand- nal of Transhumanist Thought. (Sponta- as intelligence, technology, and the sci- ing the frontiers of humanity (and post- neous Order in #7, Dynamic Optimism in entific method could be applied to our humanity) to include space habitats, other #8, and Self-Transformation in the forth- condition. Extropians seek the continua- planets and this solar system, neighbor- coming #10.) tion and fostering of this process, tran- ing systems, and beyond. By the end of the scending biological and psychological 21st Century, more people may be living limits as we proceed into posthumanity. off-planet than on Earth 1. Boundless Expansion In aspiring to transhumanity, and Resource limits are not immutable. Beginning as mindless matter, parts beyond to posthumanity, we reject natural The market price system encourages con- of nature developed in a slow evolutionary and traditional limitations on our possi- servation, substitution and innovation, advance which produced progressively bilities. We champion the rational use of preventing any need for a brake on growth more powerful brains. Chemical reac- science and technology to void limits on and progress. Expansion into space will tions generated tropistic behavior, which lifespan, intelligence, personal power, vastly expand the energy and resources was superseded by instinctual and Skin- freedom, and experience. We are for our civilization. Living extended tran- nerian stimulus-response behavior, and immortalists because we recognize the shuman lifespans will foster intelligent then by conscious learning and experi- absurdity of accepting “natural” limits to use of resources and environment. 5 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Extropians affirm a rational, market-medi- the mainstream because they do not al- natural heritage, instead we apply the ated environmentalism aimed at main- low themselves to be chained by dogmas, evolutionary gift of our rational, empirical taining and enhancing our biospheres whether religious, political, or social. Ex- intelligence in order to surpass human (whether terrestrial or extra-terrestrial). We tropians choose their values and behav- limits and enter the transhuman and post- oppose apocalyptic environmentalism, ior reflectively, standing firm when required human stages of the future. which hallucinates catastrophes, issues but responding flexibly to novel condi- a stream of doomsday predictions, and tions. attempts to strangle our continued evolu- Personal responsibility and self-de- tion. termination goes hand-in-hand with 3. Intelligent Technology No mysteries are sacrosanct, no lim- neophilic self-experimentation. Extropi- Extropians do not denigrate technol- its unquestionable; the unknown must ans take responsibility for the conse- ogy, no matter how radically different from yield to the intelligent mind. We seek to quences of our choices, refusing to blame historical norms, as “unnatural”. The term understand and to master reality up to and others for the risks involved in our free ‘natural’ is largely devoid of meaning. We beyond any currently foreseen limits. choices. Experimentation and self-trans- might say that any technological means of formation require risks; Extropians wish altering the environment or the human to be free to evaluate the risks and poten- body is unnatural since it changes the tial benefits for ourselves, applying our previously existing state of nature. But we own judgment and wisdom, and assum- can also say that applying our intelligence 2. Self-Transformation ing responsibility for the outcome. We through technology is natural to humans, neither wish others to force standards and so changing both outside nature and We affirm reason, critical inquiry, in- upon us through legal regulation, nor do our own biological nature can be regarded tellectual independence, and intellectual we wish to force others to follow our path. as natural. honesty. We reject blind faith and passive, Personal-responsibility and Extropians affirm the necessity and comfortable thinking that leads to dogma- self-determination are incompatible with desirability of science and technology. tism, religion, and conformity. A commit- authoritarian centralized control, which Practical means should be used to pro- ment to positive self-transformation re- stifles the free choices and spontaneous mote our goals of immortality, expanding quires us to critically analyze our current ordering of autonomous persons. intelligence, and greater physical abili- beliefs, behaviors, and strategies. Extropi- External coercion, whether for the ties, rather than the wishful thinking, igno- ans therefore choose to place their self- purported “good of the whole” or the pater- rant mysticism, and credulity, so common value in continued development rather nalistic protection of the individual, is un- to the New Agers. Science and technol- than “being right”. We prefer analytical acceptable to us. Compulsion breeds ig- ogy, as disciplined forms of intelligence, thought to fuzzy but comfortable delusion, norance and weakens the connection be- should be fostered, and we should seek empiricism to mysticism, and indepen- tween personal choice and personal out- to employ them in eradicating the limits to dent evaluation to conformity. Extropians come, thereby destroying personal re- our Extropian visions. affirm a philosophy of life but distance sponsibility. The proliferation of outra- themselves from religious thinking be- geous liability lawsuits, governmental cause of its blind faith, debasement of safety regulations, and the rights-destroy- human dignity, and systematized irratio- ing drug war result from ignoring these We prefer analytical nality. facts of life. Extropians are rational indi- thought to fuzzy but com- Perpetual self-improvement – physi- vidualists, living by their own judgment, cal, intellectual, psychological, and ethi- making critical, informed, and free choices, fortable delusion, em- cal – requires us to continually re-exam- and accepting responsibility for those piricism to mysticism, ine our lives. Extropians seek to better choices. themselves, yet without denying their cur- As neophiles, Extropians study ad- and independent evalu- rent worth. The desire to improve should vanced, emerging, and future technolo- ation to conformity. not be confused with the belief that one is gies for their self-transformative potential lacking in current value. But valuing one- in enhancing our abilities and freedom. self in the present cannot mean self-sat- We support biomedical research with the isfaction, since an intelligent and probing goal of understanding and controlling the We do not share common cultural mind can can always envisage a superior aging process. We are interested in any fears of technology, such as those em- self in the future. Extropians are commit- plausible means of conquering death, bodied in the story of Frankenstein and the ted to expanding wisdom, fine-tuning un- including interim measures like biostasis/ myth of the Tower of Babel. We favor care- derstanding of rational behavior, and en- cryonics, and long-term possibilities such ful and cautious development of powerful hancing physical and intellectual capaci- as migration out of biological bodies into technologies, but refuse to attempt to stifle ties. superior vehicles (“uploading”). development on the basis of fear of the Extropians are neophiles and experi- We practice and plan for biological unknown. Extropians therefore oppose mentalists. We are neophiles because and neurological augmentation through the anti-human “Back to the Pleistocene”, we track the latest research for more effi- means such as effective cognitive en- anti-civilization rhetoric of the extreme cient means of achieving our goals. We hancers or “smart drugs”, computers and environmentalists. Going backwards are experimentalists because we are will- electronic networks, General Semantics means death for billions and stagnation ing to explore and test the novel means of and other guides to effective thinking, and oppression for the rest. Intelligent self-transformation that we uncover. In meditation and visualization techniques, use of biotechnology, nanotechnology, our quest for advancement to the accelerated learning strategies, and ap- space and other technologies, in con- tranhuman stage, we rely on our own plied cognitive psychology, and soon neu- junction with a market system, can re- judgement, seek our own path, and reject ral-computer integration. We do not ac- move resource constraints and solve en- both blind conformity and mindless rebel- cept the limits imposed on us by our lion. Extropians frequently diverge from vironmental pressures. EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 6 We see technological development perspectives made possible by sponta- continue to accelerate, leading, some of not as an end in itself, but as a means to neous orders. Central direction constrains us expect, to a Singularity – a future time the achievement and development of our exploration, diversity, freedom, and dis- when many of the rules of life will so values, ideals and visions. We seek to senting opinion. Respecting spontane- radically diverge from those familiar to us, employ science and technology to remove ous order means supporting voluntaris- and progress will be so rapid, that we limits to growth, and to radically transform tic, autonomy-maximizing institutions as cannot now comprehend that time. Ex- both the internal and external conditions opposed to rigidly hierarchical, authoritar- tropians will maintain the acceleration of of existence. ian groupings with their bureaucratic struc- progress and encourage it in beneficial We see the coming years and de- ture, suppression of innovation and diver- directions. cades as being a time of enormous sity, and smothering of individual incen- Adopting dynamic optimism means changes, changes which will vastly ex- tives. Understanding spontaneous orders focusing on possibilities and opportuni- pand our opportunities, our freedom, and makes us highly suspicious of “authori- ties, and being alert to solutions and po- our abilities. Genetic engineering, ties” where these are imposed on us, and tentialities. And it means refusing to whine interventive gerontology (life extension), skeptical of coercive leaders, unques- about what cannot be avoided, learning space migration, smart drugs, more pow- tioning obedience, and unexamined tra- from mistakes rather than dwelling on erful computers and smarter program- ditions. them in a victimizing, punishing manner. ming, neural-computer interfaces, virtual Making effective use of a spontane- Dynamic optimism requires us to take the reality, swift electronic communications, ously ordering social system requires us initiative, to jump up and plough into our artificial intelligence, neural networks, ar- to be tolerant and peaceful, allowing oth- difficulties with an attitude that says we tificial life, neuroscience, and nanotech- ers to pursue their lives as they see fit, just can achieve our goals, rather than to sit nology will contribute to accelerating as we expect to be left to follow our own back and immerse ourselves in defeatist change. paths. We can best achieve mutual thinking. progress by interacting cooperatively and Dynamic optimism is not compatible benevolently toward all who do not threaten with passive faith. Faith in a better future is our lives, and by supporting diversity of confidence that an external force, whether 4. Spontaneous Order opinion and behavior. Respecting diver- God, State or society, will solve our prob- Spontaneous orders are self-gener- sity and disagreement requires us to main- lems. Faith, or the Polyanna/Dr. Pangloss ating, organic orders and differ from con- tain control of our impulses and to uphold variety of optimism, breeds passivity by structed, centrally directed orders. Both high standards of rational personal be- encouraging the belief that progress will types of order have their place, but spon- havior. Extropians are guided in their ac- be effected by others. Faith requires a taneous orders are vital in our social inter- tions by studying the fields of strategy, determined belief in external forces and actions. Spontaneous orders have prop- decision theory and game theory. These so encourages dogmatism and irrational erties that make them especially condu- make clear to us the benefits of coopera- rigidity of belief and behavior. Dynamic cive to Extropian goals and values and tion and encourage the long-term thinking optimism fosters activity and intelligence, spontaneous ordering processes can be appropriate to persons seeking an unlim- telling us that we are capable of improving found at work in many fields. The evolution ited lifespan. life through our own efforts. Opportunities of complex biological forms is one ex- and possibilities are everywhere, waiting ample; others include the adjustment of for us to seize them and create new ones. ecosystems, artificial life demonstrations, To achieve our goals, we must believe in memetics (the study of replicating infor- ourselves, work hard, and be open to mation patterns), computational markets 5. Dynamic Optimism revise our strategies. (agoric open systems), brain function and We espouse a positive, dynamic, Where others see difficulties, we see neurocomputation, empowering attitude. To successfully pur- challenges. Where others give up, we The principle of spontaneous order sue our values and live our lives we must move forward. Where others say enough is embodied in the free market system – reject gloom, defeatism, and the common is enough, we say: Forward! Upward! a system that does not yet exist in a pure cultural focus on negatives. Problems – Outward! We espouse personal, social, form. The free market allows complex technical, social, psychological, ecologi- and technological evolution into ever higher institutions to develop, encourages inno- cal – should be acknowledged but not forms. Extropians see too far and change vation, rewards individual initiative and allowed to dominate our thinking and our too rapidly to feel future shock. Let us reinforces personal responsibility, fos- direction. We respond to gloom and nay- advance the wave of evolutionary ters diversity, and safeguards political free- saying by exploration and promotion of progress. dom. Market economies ensure the tech- new possibilities. Extropians hold to both nological and social progress essential short and long-term optimism: In the to the Extropian philosophy. We reject the short term we can cultivate our lives and Extropianism is a transhumanist phi- technocratic idea of central control by self- enhance ourselves; in the long term the losophy: Like humanism it values reason proclaimed experts. No group of experts positive potentials for intelligent beings and sees no ground for believing in super- can understand and control the endless are virtually limitless. natural external forces controlling our des- complexity of an economy and society. We question limits that others take for tiny. But transhumanism goes further in Expert knowledge is best harnessed and granted. We look at the acceleration in calling us to push beyond the simply hu- transmitted through the superbly efficient scientific and technical knowledge, as- man stage of evolution. As physicist Free- mediation of the free market’s price sig- cending standards of living, and social man Dyson said: “Humanity looks to me nals – signals that embody more informa- and moral evolution and project further like a magnificent beginning but not the tion than any person or group could ever advances. More researchers today than in final word.” Religion has traditionally pro- gather. all past history strive to understand aging, vided a sense of meaning and purpose in Sustained progress and intelligent, control disease, upgrade computers, and life, but it also suppressed intelligence rational decision-making requires the di- develop biotechnology and nanotechnol- and stifled progress. The Extropian phi-¶ verse sources of information and differing ogy. Technological and social evolution 7 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 losophy provides an inspiring and uplifting meaning and direction to our individual and social existence, while remaining flexible and firmly founded in science, reason, and the boundless search for improvement. READINGS These books are listed because they embody Extropian ideas. However, appear- ance on this list should not be taken to imply full agreement of the author with the Extropian Principles, or vice versa.

Harry Browne: How I Found Freedom in An Unfree World Paul M. Churchland: Matter and Consciousness Paul M. Churchland: A Neurocomputational Perspective Mike Darwin & Brian Wowk: Cryonics: Reaching For Tomorrow Richard Dawkins: The Selfish Gene Ward Dean and John Morgenthaler: Smart Drugs and Nutrients Freeman Dyson: Infinite in all Directions Eric Drexler: Engines of Creation Eric Drexler, C. Peterson with Gayle Pergamit: Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution Robert Ettinger: The Prospect of Immortality Man Into Superman F.M. Esfandiary: Optimism One Up-Wingers Telespheres FM-2030: Are You A Transhuman? Grant Fjermedal: The Tomorrow Makers David Friedman: The Machinery of Freedom David Gauthier: Morals By Agreement Alan Harrington: The Immortalist Timothy Leary: Info-Psychology J.L. Mackie: The Miracle of Theism Hans Moravec: Mind Children: The Future of Human and Robotic Intelligence Jan Narveson: The Libertarian Idea Jerry Pournelle: A Step Farther Out Ilya Prigogine and Isabelle Stengers: Order Out of Chaos W. Duncan Reekie: Markets, Entrenpreneurs and Liberty Ed Regis: Great Mambo Chicken and the Transhuman Condition

Albert Rosenfeld: Prolongevity II Julian Simon: The Ultimate Resource Julian Simon and Herman Kahn (eds): The Resourceful Earth Alvin Toffler: Powershift Robert Anton Wilson: Prometheus Rising The New Inquisition Fiction: Roger MacBride Allen: The Modular Man Robert Heinlein: Methusaleh’s Children Time Enough for Love James P. Hogan: Voyage To Yesteryear Charles Platt: The Silicon Man Ayn Rand: Atlas Shrugged Robert Shea and Robert Anton Wilson: Illuminatus! (3 vols.) L. Neil Smith: The Probability Breach Bruce Sterling: Schizmatrix Marc Stiegler: The Gentle Seduction. Vernor Vinge: True Names EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992“The Ungoverned” in True Names...8 and Other Dangers Extropy Institute Launches Max More Executive Director

On May 10 1992, Extropy Institute (ExI) for helping others understand that gators and enthusiasts, mostly associ- became a 501(c)3 California nonprofit coming age. ated with the Foresight Institute, the life corporation. We were able to speed the Extropy was to provide a forum for the extensionists and cryonicists, computer incorporation process thanks to Fred and discussion of the future for those who programmers and electronic communi- Linda Chamberlain, who offered to let us shared certain basic values - the values cation proponents, libertarians and other take over the Lake Tahoe Life Extension which are now expressed in the Extropian individualists, the hypertext researchers Festival, change the directors, Articles and Principles. The world view that Tom and I associated with Xanadu, and now some Bylaws, and the name. The Festival was shared – and soon discovered that many of those supporting the electronic market- incorporated in 1986 and, through it, Fred others affirmed – was neatly summarized place of the American Information Ex- and Linda (who are also distinguished as in Tom’s neologism, ‘extropy’, which in- change (AMIX). the founders of the Alcor Life Extension cluded the ideas of increasing informa- Rather than adopting the traditional Foundation in 1972) organized confer- tion and intelligence, increasing order, corporate structure, ExI will operate as an ences in Lake Tahoe. These conference- and expanding usable energy. Extropian adhocracy. “Adhocracy” is Alvin Toffler’s festivals were attended by life philosophy was the first to explicitly draw term for a highly networked, non-hierar- extensionists and cryonicists from around together apparently disparate ideas and chical organization, a type found most the world. Extropy Institute intends to re- interests: Individualistic/voluntaristic po- often in law firms, consulting companies start similar events, though with a broader litical views, enthusiasm for technology, and research universities. Our networked coverage than life extension and cryonics. especially life extension, space migra- structure, linking members through elec- ExI also took charge of the records of tion, self-improvement, cognitive en- tronic mail, computer conferencing and Lifepact – an outgrowth of the Festival hancement, computers and artificial intel- electronic bulletin boards will allow us to which sought to set up mechanisms en- ligence, nanotechnology, and so on. The adapt efficiently to a changing array of suring motivations for eventual resuscita- readers of Extropy frequently expressed projects, each requiring differing skills tion of biostasis patients. We intend to surprise and delight that there were oth- and resources.1 reactivate the Lifepact Project when we ers who shared all these interests and can. had formed them into a coherent world Extropy Institute Projects: view. Elsewhere in this issue you can find Extropians 1988-1992 Over the next few years, Extropy grew the revised statement of the Extropian Extropy came into existence four years in size, readership, and sophistication. Principles. Extropy Institute’s objectives, ago, in the Fall of 1988, as a small 24 page The writing became longer and more ana- and present and future projects are guided publication, titled Extropy: Vaccine For lytical, turning the publication into a cross by those principles. We feel a pressing Future Shock, edited by myself and Tom between a magazine, newsletter and jour- need for memetically engineering our cul- Morrow (under our old surnames), while nal. In 1991 I changed the sub-title to ture – intelligently applying ourselves to we were graduate students in philosophy. reflect the publication’s evolution and it changing those parts of the intellectual There we set out our view of the future, and became Extropy: The Journal of Transhu- culture hostile or indifferent to our values. our agenda: manist Thought. We want to increase support for life exten- After wandering along at a slow pace Also in 1991, thanks to the efforts of sion, physical and cognitive augmenta- for centuries, our world has started Perry Metzger, the Extropians electronic tion, and combat statism, and paternal- to enter a period of change that will mail list started up, and is now about to ism. Especially important in the 1990s is far outpace historical standards. The celebrate its first anniversary. The list at- combating the false doom-mongering of changes occurring in the twentieth tracted many more people, who discov- the apocalyptic environmentalists. These century dwarf those of any previous ered they were Extropians. About the same anti-growth, anti-market, anti-freedom, thousand years, but they only hint at time, I discussed with Tom and Simon! back-to-the-Pleistocene forces threaten what the future holds. We face a Levy the idea of forming an organization to all that we believe in. The crisis-brigade turning point in history – a time when make possible projects beyond the jour- environmentalists have found a way to computers, artificial intelligence, nal. The Extropy Institute started up, and smuggle through the back door the dis- nanotechnology, self-modification, three other directors taken on board: David credited ideas of socialism, fascism and physical immortality and other fac- Krieger, Russell Whitaker, and Ralph Malthus. Few people stand up for the side tors promise to radically transform Whelan. of growth. ExI intends to gather together virtually every aspect of our exist- Extropy Institute brings together sev- the many people sharing our viewpoint ence. We are responsible for pre- eral other communities and intellectual (as summarized in the principle of Bound- paring ourselves for that future, and groupings: The nanotechnology investi- less Expansion). 9 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 already seen the exchange of many public Archive: We have begun, in a small way, Exponent: September 1 1992 will see the keys, thanks to the encouragement of ExI to build a library and to archive materials publication of the first issue of Exponent – Director Russell Whitaker. and objects of historical interest relating a bi-monthly ExI publication, edited by to the development of life extension and Simon! D. Levy of the University of Con- Educational Outreach: ExI will develop enhancement of cognitive, physical, and necticut, and author of Extropy’s educational materials concerning the psychological capacities. These will be Neurocomputation series. Exponent will uses of computer technologies, biotech- displayed at our events. When resources publish shorter and more topical items, nology, nanotechnology, and psychologi- allow, we will establish a library and a while Extropy will continue to publish cal means of enhancing cognitive, physi- museum, which will be open to the public. longer essays. Exponent will include news cal, and psychological capacities in hu- of ExI activities, updates on advances in man beings, and the lengthening of the BBS: In order to facilitate communication the crucial technologies of the future, re- human lifespan. Our educational outreach between ExI and its membership, we will views of books, movies, software, and will include giving seminars and lectures, set up an electronic bulletin board (BBS). multimedia, and a section devoted to criti- and making available audio and video This will hold various documents, and cally analyzing the doomsday claims of tapes of interest to Extropians. Long-term news updates, and will allow provide a some environmentalists. A subscription goals include a television show compre- forum for discussions and exchange of to Exponent comes with ExI membership. hensively presenting the positive poten- information in addition to the two Extropian tials of advanced and emerging technolo- electronic mailing lists already in opera- Introduction to Extropian Philosophy: gies. Some of the first topics to be made tion. Producing a booklet containing some es- available as seminars and tapes will be a sential essays explaining the Extropian self-programming course, presenting the Lifepact Project: Lifepact was started by philosophy is a high priority. This can be most effective means of self-transforma- Fred and Linda Chamberlain to set up sent to people inquiring about the Institute tion, an effective thinking course, and ma- mechanisms improving the chances that and serve as one element of our educa- terials supporting Environmental Ratio- biostasis patients would eventually be tional outreach. nality project. resuscitated. A Lifepact is an agreement ExI will distribute to scientific and between persons so that the first person Environmental Rationality Project: The educational institutions and to interested to be revived from biostasis would take enemies of growth, progress and the con- professionals, and seek to have pub- responsibility for ensuring the resuscita- tinued evolution of our species are legion. lished, the results of our surveys and tion of the other. Eventually a network of Those supporting our goals are numer- analyses, so that the information derived these agreements would exist. ExI will ous but not organized, leaving almost all from this work will have the maximum restart Lifepact, and provide a repository the influence over the culture to the public accessibility and benefit. for the storage of information that might be entropists. Extropy Institute, which already used to reconstruct an imperfectly pre- has numerous contacts in diverse fields, ExPress: At first we will gather from di- served personality. ExI members receive intends to serve as a nexus for the inter- verse sources any books, tapes, and soft- a discount on deep underground storage change of information and strategy for the ware that interest us as Extropians. Later arranged through the Alcor Life Extension pro-growth proponents. We will pursue we may found a press – the ExPress – to Foundation. media attention in order to make our case, publish works by both new and experi- hold conferences, distribute essays, enced Extropian writers. Idea Futures Project: Idea futures mar- books, and videos on the environment, kets, described by Robin Hanson in Ex- growth, and pollution, and we will give Self-Programming Research Project: In tropy #8, allow market mechanisms to lectures and challenge the anti-growth support of the principle of Self-Transfor- help settle controversial empirical fore- forces to debates. mation, ExI will research the most effec- casts. Idea futures offer powerful advan- tive techniques for physical, cognitive, and tages over other mechanisms for estab- Digital Economy Project: Electronic com- psychological self-improvement. There is lishing a consensus on the basis of which munications and computational markets an enormous amount of both useful and to allocate research and investment funds. will be increasingly important as the future worthless self-transformation information Extropy Institute intends to investigate the progresses. We will educate the public on out there, and many Extropians have been legal and organizational requirements for trends and future technologies and social experimenting with it for years. We will setting up a functioning idea futures mar- structures to aid in the transformations bring together the best techniques, offer- ket. already underway, and we will conduct ing them in the form of seminars, written research to stay on the leading edge. We courses, and tapes. Project Extropia: Extropia is an evolving have already established a market on social ideal, not a place. Project Extropia AMIX – the American Information Exchange, ExI Conferences: In addition to the social seeks to develop new virtual and actual an electronic marketplace where docu- gatherings that have already been taking communities, grounded in individualistic ments can be bought and sold, and con- place, ExI will organize conferences for principles and supportive of Extropian sulting services hired. We will also sup- the exchange of ideas, discussion of strat- values and goals. The ExI office is now port the development of user-friendly and egy, and debating our differences, as well located in what we call the Nexus/L.A. – a powerful encryption systems, so that elec- as providing a way for Extropians to meet house inhabited by Extropians where the tronic communications can be secured in enjoyable surroundings. We would like inhabitants interact according to individu- against governmental and private inva- to hold an annual general conference alist principles, providing synergistic co- sion. Accessible encryption will acceler- where a broad range of topics are dis- operation while maintaining autonomy ate the use of computer networks and cussed, in addition to more specialized (such as by avoiding common property computational economies (including elec- conferences on intellectual property, com- and contracting for internal services). Other tronic money and secure electronic ex- putational economies, life extension, etc. Extropians have expressed interest in set- changes). The Extropians e-mail list has ting up Nexi elsewhere. We expect to see

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 10 the growth of a Nexus Network. In conjunc- tion with the growth of electronic commu- nication, the Nexus Network will be a dis- tributed community of Extropians linked by printed, acoustic and electronic com- munications. In addition, ExI will encour- age and participate in a feasibility study of the Free Oceana/Agora Aqua private Ex- tropian community idea already heavily discussed on the Net.

As you can see, even at this early stage we have an ambitious list of projects. A few of these are underway, others are in the planning stages, and some are just dreams. You can make a major difference to the success and progress of these projects. Your unique skills and knowl- edge, applied to the project you most want to see move ahead, will have enormous leverage at this time. At this stage we especially need to secure funding in order to develop our programs. If you can sup- Extropy Institute port us financially, or by helping in any way with fundraising, we want to hear from you!

In this issue, or inserted into it, is a membership information form. We hope Extropians list adjudicator: Andrea Gallagher the readers of Extropy will want to join us AMIX Extropians market manager: Dean Tribble. as members, receive the newsletter, Ex- ponent, and charge with us into the future. 1For discussion of adhocracies and related issues, see “Computers, Networks and the Corporation,” Thomas W. Malone and John F. Rockart. Scientific American, September 1991.

Extropy Institute Extropy #9 was produced on a 386-20 Deadline for submissions for #10 (vol.4 P.O. Box 57306, Los Angeles, MHz PC, with an 80 Mb hard drive and 5 Mb no.2): of RAM (with some help with conversions November 1 1992 CA 90057-0306. from a Mac SE/30), using PageMaker 4.0, Tel/Fax: (213) 484-6383. Word for Windows 2.0, ATM 2.0, Aldus Provisional mailing date for #10: Freehand 3.1. Fonts used are Arial, Book January 15 1993 [email protected] Antiqua, Eurostile, and EurostileBold. This issue was typeset on a VT-100 at the Advertizers: Contact the Editor for rates. Directors: Electronic Publishing Center at the Uni- Max More, Executive Director, Editor, versity of Southern California, and was Print run this issue: 750 Extropy. [email protected] printed by Customized Computer Pub- Tom Morrow, Associate Executive lishing at U.S.C. Exponent Director. [email protected] Keep up with Extropian news and ideas Simon! D. Levy, Chief Financial Officer, Formats for Submissions between issues of Extropy by reading Editor, Exponent. I can accept most formats, converting Extropy Institute's bi-monthly newsletter, levy%[email protected] with varying degrees of difficulty. Preferred Exponent. See the insert for information. Ralph Whelan, Secretary. text formats are PC-compatible formats [email protected] such as Word for Windows 1.1 or 2.0, Extropians on the Net David Krieger, Director. WordPerfect 4.2, 5.0, or 5.1, Wordstar, For a daily source of Extropian informa- dkrieger%[email protected] ascii text, RTF, or other major word-pro- tion, discussion, and controversy, join the Russell E. Whitaker, Director. cessor format. EPS, PCX, TIFF and other Extropians e-mail list. To join the list send [email protected] standard graphics formats are fine, and I a request to join to manager Harry Shapiro can accept PICT and MacDraw files, but at: Extropians list manager: Harry Shapiro prefer to receive PC-compatible files. [email protected]

11 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Persons, Programs, and Uploading Consciousness David Ross

Abstract: The pursuit of indefinitely-extended life falls into two categories: repair of our current bodies and movement of our personalities into other bodies. This article deals with a subset of the latter: the uploading of the human personality into a computer. It is divided into four sections, each of them introduced by a question. 1. What would an intelligent program be like? 2. Is the human mind an intelligent program? 3. What does it mean to upload rather than copy a human? 4. How would you upload a human?

What Would an Intelligent super-megacomputer to run. If any form of This is one form of the so-called Turing intelligent program, human or otherwise, test. Program Be Like? is possible, it can run on the simplest form Self-awareness and intelligence are of computer, provided it has enough not the same thing. It seems quite pos- The short form of the argument for memory. It will run equally well, and with sible that an intelligent program might not human uploading goes like this. The hu- equal intelligence, on a computer built of be self-aware, or that a self-aware pro- man mind is a program running on a tinker-toys as on one with multiple teraflops gram might not have human-level intelli- computer which is the brain. Silicon-based of capability. It will just run incomparably gence. Nevertheless, since we want an computers are getting more and more slower. uploaded human to be both intelligent powerful all the time. Before long they will If this is true for intelligent programs, and self-aware, for the purposes of this equal human brain power and then it it is also true for human personalities article we will lump the two concepts to- should be possible, at least in principle, to uploaded onto computers. The shortcut gether under the title “intelligent”. transfer the mind-program from the brain argument that all it takes is faster ma- Many people are uncomfortable with to a silicon computer of equal or superior chines to make possible intelligent pro- the subjective form of the Turing test, but power. Ignoring for a moment the ques- grams and (by extension) human upload- all objective tests of intelligence in the tion of whether the human mind is a com- ing is false. Establishing the possibility of form of a finite set of pre-established ques- puter program, this line of reasoning con- uploading must go by a more circuitous tions must fail. They must fail because a ceals a serious misconception, which route. Fortunately, following that route computer could always be programmed much be cleared up at the start. gives quite a bit of insight into how to to give the same answers to those ques- The argument ignores the important actually perform the uploading. tions that a human had already given. In distinction between the processing power the same way, it is incorrect to say that “If of a computer and the IQ of a program What is an Intelligent only a computer could do ‘X’ I would con- running on that computer. This distinction sider it intelligent.” Time and again com- is often lost in discussions of machine System? puters have accomplished tasks previ- intelligence. Several authors, Moravec ously thought to require intelligence — 1 sometimes among them , have pointed Intelligence is like pornography: We playing chess, reading characters — and to the continual exponential growth in desk- can’t define it, but we know it when we see done so in clearly non-intelligent ways. top computing power, shown that it passes it. We are probably willing to accept a Finite task testing, like finite question list the human-level ten teraflop range about system as intelligent if it “feels” intelligent testing must fail, and the only real way of 2025, and from this argued that human- in the same way as does another human. establishing the intelligence of another level intelligent programs will become That is, if it acts intelligently in most of its entity is subjective. possible around then. dealings with us. The same thing is true One reason why there can never be a The truth is that far more progress for self-awareness. It too must be estab- finite set of tests that establish the intelli- has been made increasing computer lished from the outside. Until such time as gence of a program is because whatever speeds in the past thirty years than in we upload ourselves onto a computer and else intelligence may be, it is a function of increasing the mind-power of computer then observe ourselves, there is no way to complexity. A “simple” system is one programs. The two phenomena (increase prove whether any program is self-aware. where its basic components — such as in computer power and increase in pro- For now, a self-aware or an intelligent the rules in an expert system — are still gram intelligence) have almost nothing to program must be one that can pass what- individually important. A “complex” sys- do with each other. A program with hu- ever tests would convince us of another tem is one where the individual building man-level intelligence does not require a human’s self-awareness or intelligence. blocks are submerged in levels of hierar-

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 12 chy and complexity. An intelligent system does so. must be complex. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Probably the single most egregious it shares this property with life and with failure of the Expert System school of Is the Human Mind an entropy. Artificial Intelligence, led by Marvin Minsky, Intelligent Program? Entropy cannot appear if the number has been the failure to understand that an of particles involved is too small or the intelligent system must be complex. Thus, The Computers Can’t Think particles are too simple. The equations of a simple rule-following system, no matter motion of a simple system of colliding how well it may mimic a human in some Fallacy particles are time-reversible. It is only when limited regime, is not intelligent, and add- the system is sufficiently complex — when ing more discrete rules can never lead to While most students of spontaneous the basic building blocks of the system intelligent behavior. This, perhaps, ex- order, and indeed most computer scien- have all but vanished into the background plains the failure of the Expert System tists, would claim that intelligent programs — that entropy can arise. This phenom- school of AI to produce intelligent sys- are possible, there are several other enon of a high-level property of a system tems. schools of philosophy that say intelligent appearing only when the low-level con- This failure is, in a way, unfortunate. or self-aware algorithms are not possible, stituents have effectively disappeared is If intelligence could be the product of a and that therefore, by extension, a human important. A system that demonstrates simple rule-based system, then those cannot be uploaded onto a machine with- entropy contains too many particles to rules could, in principle, be programmed out losing his intelligence or his self- deal with individually; they must be tracked into a computer. The resulting system awareness. Because this question is statistically. Note, however, that the aris- would then presumably be intelligent. central to the problem of uploading, we’ll ing of entropy is not just a statistical trick. Uploading a human (or at least copying a take a slight detour to attempt to answer Even a system of trillions of particles is in human onto a computer — we’ll look at the some of their objections. More detailed principle trackable using purely time-re- difference later) would then be a question refutations of the “computers can’t think” versible Newtonian equations. And yet, of determining the complete set of rules school of philosophy can be found in despite this, such a system has irrevers- that specify the human and programming endnote3. ible, entropy-increasing modes of behav- a suitable computer with those rules. This ior. Entropy is not the same thing as chaos point of view has been one of the driving Simulating intelligence — the inability to track a system because concepts behind the expert systems view versus real intelligence of round-off error. of artificial intelligence from its beginning. Life, too, appears only with a certain Unfortunately, if intelligence requires com- One false path the “computers can’t think” level of complexity. Very complex mol- plexity great enough that the system build- school goes down is when they discuss ecules, up to about the level of the sim- ing blocks effectively vanish, the only way the difference between a simulation of plest viruses, are not fully alive. But the a rule-based system could be intelligent something and the thing itself. This argu- more complex viruses, and the simplest would require it to have so many rules ment shows up in several forms, many of single-cell objects, are alive. The system arranged so complexly that the individual them made by John Searle4. One form of has passed a level of basic complexity rules are effectively lost in the noise. It is it is that all computers can do is simulate separating life from non-life, and again difficult to see how anyone could write physical processes. They cannot dupli- done so when it is no longer sensible to such a system. Perhaps one could even- cate them. talk about a group of single constituents, tually be grown by an automatic rule-writ- Searle has correctly pointed out that but rather of systems of systems or some- ing program — or by several generations no matter how well a computer simulates thing even more complex. of them. the chemical processes in a flame, it will So it seems to be with intelligence. It should be kept in mind that com- not produce the flame’s heat. This is be- Only a ‘sufficiently complex’ system can plexity alone is not sufficient to generate cause a flame is an example of a process be intelligent. Some heuristic arguments intelligence, any more than it is sufficient that is “essentially material”. The simula- for why this is so are possible. An intelli- to generate entropy or life. The Internet, the tion of an “essentially material” process gent system is capable of generating new interlocking system of computer networks will always be different in kind from the information from old information. This is that connects most military and educa- process itself. not just a recombining of the old informa- tional institutions and an increasing num- There are other kinds of processes, tion, but a recombining of it in ways that ber of commercial ones, has on it comput- however, which are not “essentially mate- demonstrate non-obvious links and con- ing power collectively approaching that of rial”. For these processes there is little or sequences — in short, in ways which a single human brain, and that computing no difference between the process itself generate new information. But Shannon power is arranged in multitudes of very and the simulation of the process. Con- 2 has shown that information can be ex- complex systems, but it is shows no sign sider addition. I can add two numbers in pressed mathematically in the same form of either life or intelligence. In conclusion, my head, and everyone would say I was as entropy (with a change of sign). In for a program to be intelligent it must be performing addition. Would anyone say effect, information is the opposite of en- “complex” and it must be able to convince that if I programmed a computer to simu- tropy. a human of its intelligence. We do not yet late what my brain is doing that the result- To some degree, the generation of know how to write such programs, but they ing system would not be doing addition? previously unavailable information can be certainly do not seem impossible in prin- Addition is a process for which the simu- seen as reducing the entropy of the sys- ciple. Surprisingly, if the human mind turns lation of the process is the same as the tem. For the entropy of a system to be out to be such a program, we may be able process itself. reduced, it must be sufficiently complex to to copy (or transfer) ourselves without A form of simulation that is directly have entropy in the first place. Note that it completely understanding how the pro- relevant to human uploading is the con- is not the processing of information that gram works, modify the result, and pro- struction of an emulator. If a programmer requires either complexity or intelligence. duce truly intelligent programs that way — has a program which he must run on a It is the generation of new information that a kind of reverse engineering of ourselves. different kind of computer than it was writ-

13 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 ten for, but for which he does not have the ENIAC for each new program. Instead, he source code, he will build an emulator. An wired the computer a set way and modi- emulator is a special computer program The “The Mind is a Computer fied the data memory registers whenever that translates the system calls of one he wanted to run a different program. kind of computer into system calls of the Program” Misunderstanding Before von Neuman, the program ENIAC other. Thus, if the pointer to the “ADD” ran was determined by its wiring. In es- instructions is stored in register 18, say, On the opposite side of the intelligent sence the wiring and the program were on the computer for which the program program question there is also a misun- the same thing. The brain, if it is a com- was originally written, and in register 32 derstanding that must be cleared up. This puter at all, is pre-von Neuman. Brain on the computer on which it must run, the is the “radical dualist” view of the mind/ structure at every level determines the emulator will intercept all calls to register brain question. This way of reasoning functioning of the mind. A given brain, with 18 and redirect them to register 32. Except looks on the mind/brain system as directly its structure intact, simply can not run a for some degradation in speed, the ex- analogous to a program/brain system. different program. The wiring is the pro- ecuting program will perform the same on Proponents of this view hold, in essence, gram. the new system as it did on the one for that the mind is a program running on the The central question in human up- which it was developed. hardware of the brain. loading, then, is can we provide a von Although the program-plus-emula- Their syllogism goes as follows. Ma- Neuman-type modification to the brain? tor is “simulating” the program running on jor Premise: Any computer program can Can we change the essential form of the its original computer, there is no doubt be moved from one system to another brain/computer from one where the struc- that the program is actually running on the system of sufficient power without essen- ture is the program to one which will run on new system. In essence, it is the hard- tially altering it. Minor Premise 1: The hu- a general purpose computer? And can we ware, not the software that is being simu- man brain is a computer. Minor Premise guarantee that it is the same program lated. The software is just being run. If we 2: The human mind is a program. Conclu- when we are done? can show that a computer program can be sion: the human mind can be moved from The answer to these questions is a brain emulator — that is, emulate the the computer that is the human brain to yes. Such a von Neuman modification is hardware at a sufficiently low level — then another computer of sufficient power. possible in principle. Consider the actual such a computer-plus-emulator should change that he made to ENIAC. Before he be able to run a human mind-program. learned how to program it, the memory Processes like addition and com- registers were used to store initial condi- puter programs are “essentially immate- The brain, if it is a com- tions and intermediate result data for run- rial”. To simulate them is to run them. puter at all, is pre-von ning the program. How that data was used Searle’s argument that at most comput- was determined by which wires were con- ers can only simulate thought requires Neumann. Brain struc- nected to which other wires. After he him to show that the functioning of the ture at every level deter- changed the system, it was no longer human mind is an “essentially material” necessary to physically modify the wiring process. He does not do so and I do not mines the functioning of by hand to make it run a program. The data believe he can. In fact, I believe thought the mind. A given brain, in the registers, besides holding the same can be shown to be “essentially immate- initial condition and intermediate result rial” under the above definitions. with its structure intact, data, also held the program information Another argument made by Searle is — information that ENIAC read and used that computers cannot think because “they simply cannot run a dif- to flip electromechanical switches that in are made of the wrong kind of substance ferent program. The wir- turn determined which wires were con- to think”. This argument is really a form of nected to which others. The programming the first one — that all computers can do ing is the program. had replaced the human, but the connec- is simulate thought. It is based on the tivity of the wiring still changed depending same erroneous assumption that a mind on what was being run on the system. All is a physical process on the order of a von Neuman changed was what was doing chemical reaction — that it is “essentially I believe this line of reasoning also to the rewiring. material” by my definition. After making be in error, though not so seriously as It is, after all, strictly incorrect to say this assumption, Searle then establishes Searle’s. Its primary failure is that it ig- that a computer running one program has correctly that for essentially material pro- nores how much more important the struc- the same structure as one running an- cesses simulation and reality are two ture of the brain is to the functioning of the other. Throughout the CPU (central pro- different things. From this he deduces that mind than the computer’s structure is to cessing unit) switches are being set and computers may be able to simulate intel- the functioning of the program. unset millions of times a second, with ligence, but they can never actually be In a computer, the physical layout and their configuration determined by the pro- intelligent. In effect, for Searle, the mind is physical connectivity of the system does gram steps as it operates. Even though the brain and the brain is a physical pro- not change from one program to another. we cannot see it, the physical structure of toplasmic object. Many different programs can run on the the computer is changing continuously as The fallacy in Searle’s line of reason- same computer, with the only differences a program executes, and in ways that are ing is that it starts by assuming its conclu- coming at the micron-scale level on which precisely determined by the program. sion. He assumes that the mind is essen- bits are stored in computer memory. Even at the beginning, the bits that are the tially material, shows that simulation of If a mind, on the other hand, is a program on disk or in memory, before it essentially material processes is differ- program, it is a very peculiar sort of pro- starts to execute, are held by transistors in ent in kind from the processes them- gram indeed. Von Neuman invented com- physically different states depending on selves, and then concludes that a simula- puter programming because he got tired whether a given bit is a one or a zero. tion of a mind cannot itself be a mind. of changing the physical wiring on the Thus, the difference between a pre-

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 14 and a post-von Neuman computer is one they were the original. They would re- of degree, not one of kind. The structure is member equally well events that hap- still being modified as the program ex- pened to the person, and they would both ecutes. What is different is the level on What Does it Mean to Upload swear that the other was the copy. It is which the modification takes place. At its a Human? important also to note that neither one of most basic level, a program is dependent them would feel that they would continue on the structure of the particular computer There is some dispute as to whether were only the other one to survive. on which it is running. If the bits that specify “uploading” or “downloading” is the proper If it is just looking backwards in time the program are not on and off — physi- term for moving a person onto a computer. — I feel that I was uploaded is all that cally charged one way or the other — then In general computer parlance, “upload- matters — then I could let someone copy the program isn’t even there. If it doesn’t ing” refers to moving a file from your disk me and then kill my original and not care. have a physical way of putting intermedi- to your computer, or from your local com- However strong might be philosophical ate and final results into a memory, it puter to a remote system. Downloading arguments that the original self survives cannot run. In essence two different pro- usually refers to copying a file from a in such a situation, to a person looking gram cannot be run on the same com- remote system to your local computer. If ahead in time to the transfer such a situ- puter, because the programs modify the looked at from the perspective of the per- ation is not much preferable to just being computer in essential ways when they son doing the file transfer, if the movement killed. It certainly does not feel like a trans- run. is in some sense away from him, the fer. The real question, therefore, is can a process is called “uploading”, while if it is There has been substantial discus- human mind modify the general purpose toward him, it is “downloading”. If it is the sion that one of the desirable conse- switching of a general purpose computer person himself being moved, the terms quences of uploading is the possibility of instead of the very special purpose wiring become confused. As the first elements of making backup copies of yourself to be of a human brain. Can there be a level of the personality are transferred, from the activated in event of the destruction of the interface above which is the human mind perspective of most of the person, the original. A backup, as normally envisioned, and below which is an emulation of the process is uploading. As the last ele- is a copy of the original. While, looking human brain hardware? ments come across, and most of the backwards in time, it would likely believe In the mind plus brain-emulator plus personality has already been transferred, that it was the original, it would not be the computer system it is not really relevant it looks like downloading. Neither term is original, since, at the time the copy was where you draw the line and say from here completely accurate. I suppose I could made, the original still existed, and pre- up is the mind and from here down is the follow Max More’s lead and coin a new sumably had its own opinion about who emulator. All that matters is that the emu- term, say “transloading”, but that seems was there first. By keeping a backup up to lation reach low enough down (probably unnecessary. I will adopt the viewpoint at date using techniques similar to those at least to the individual neurons) so that the beginning of the process and call the discussed below for uploading, however, it is emulating systems that are below the procedure “uploading”. it should be possible to “upload” yourself essential level of the brain. Remember The main reason people want to up- to a new program in all but the very worst that a mind is a “complex” system. It arises load themselves onto a computer or other of circumstances. when the basic constituents are such a non-biological system is to escape death. It is easy to picture a copying process small part of the overall system that exactly The point of uploading is to transfer your where it is not possible from the perspec- what they are, provided they work correctly, personality from your body to the com- tive of either the person being copied or does not matter. I don’t believe anyone puter. However nice it might be to have a people outside to tell which is the original would argue that any given neuron or any copy of yourself running around, that is not and which is the copy. We really have no given synapse is important for thought. enough. It is not enough even if the copy way of knowing when we awoke this morn- Even at the most basic level, it is how that thinks it is you. The goal is to complete a ing that we were the same person who neuron interacts with the tens of thou- direct transfer of consciousness, and to went to sleep the evening before. Had sands of other neurons to which it might do it in such a way that a person can be someone made a copy while we slept and be connected that matters. sure beforehand that he will make it across then destroyed the original, we would never We can successfully run a mind/brain onto the computer. The only way for that know it. on the computer if our program emulates certainty to occur, at least until enough Nonetheless, because we have lots the brain at the neuron/synapse level. people have made the transfer that anec- of experience of continuity of self while Below that level, the computer is just tran- dotal evidence of successful uploading is conscious, we are willing, looking forward sistors and switches — a general-pur- available and believed, is for the person to in time, to accept periods of unconscious- pose von Neuman computer. What runs be conscious throughout the transference. ness — whether sleep or anesthesia — above the level where emulation starts In deciding whether uploading is theo- without worrying about whether it will be can be looked at as a brain emulator with retically possible we have to make several “us” that makes it through. But, as in lots a mind program running above it, but there careful distinctions, particularly between of other ways, once copying and upload- is really only one program. By running the uploading and copying. There are a wide ing become possible, our common sense emulator all the way down to the level of the range of philosophies concerning what can easily fail us. I submit that while there individual neuron and synapse, we are in the self is. For a quite thorough discus- may be artifacts of the copying process effect running both the brain (as an emu- sion of the current theories and their appli- that enable us to distinguish an original lator) and the mind (as a program) on the cability to uploading, I strongly recom- and a copy (someone reliable witnessed computer, regardless of where you con- mend Max More’s Ph.D. dissertation5. In the process, say, and states that the copy sider the brain to leave off and the mind to discussing whether a consciousness can was made at a location remote from the begin — or even if you consider the ques- be uploaded, we need to be careful about original without the original being dis- tion irrelevant. We have finessed the prob- directions in time. Were a person copied turbed), if the person is not conscious, lem of mind/brain duality by going down to identically, both the original and the copy, then except for those artifacts, there is no the level where the brain itself leaves off. looking backward in time, would feel that way for a person looking forward to such

15 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 a procedure to be sure he would survive. nicate instantly with any person or data- physical structure gone. Being conscious through the pro- base on the world-wide Cyberspace Web. Jason’s eyes are open, staring at the cess, however, should be sufficient for the He sighs. Maybe he has been old-fash- ceiling, but even as the cells within his person involved (who, after all, is the one ioned. If he’d already acquired artificial eyes are replaced, he has no sense of who matters) to be assured beforehand senses through direct neural implants, disorientation. For a time, the unreplaced that he will feel that he will make it through the idea of replacing his entire brain with cells are getting input from photons in the each part of the process to the end with his such structures wouldn’t be so frighten- room while the replaced cells are getting personality still intact. ing. Still, the doctors say he’ll feel abso- input from the artificial world in Cyberspace. lutely nothing while the process is going Because the synchronization is complete, How Do You Upload a on. he cannot tell which part gets which input. Human? When human uploading first became After his eyes have been completely up- possible, there was substantial debate loaded, everything still looks the same. If the arguments presented above over whether the uploaded person was After a while, a doctor comes into the are correct, we do not need to argue di- the original or just a copy. A person up- room and removes the tap into his neck. rectly that an entire mind can be trans- loading himself to avoid dying along with She holds out her hand and tells Jason to ferred to computer hardware. All we have his body needed to know that he would stand. For a moment, Jason wonders why to argue is that a nerve and all its syn- really make to transition to Cyberspace. It he feels so normal. The doctor’s touch, apses can be. To upload a mind we just might be nice to know that a copy of you the pressure of the floor against his feet, ‘upload’ neurons one at a time until we’ve would survive your death, but not nearly as all feel completely physical. And yet he uploaded everything. It isn’t even neces- nice as knowing you would. And the only knows that all the sees and feels now is sary to understand the functioning of the way to be sure that it was really you who part of Cyberspace. brain as a whole to do this. As long as the made the transfer was to do it fully con- The doctor leads him over to a curtain system can recognize what a neuron is scious. at the side of the room and draws it back. and replace it with a nerve-replacement While Jason ponders his decision, Through the revealed window, Jason looks structure (NRS), uploading can be ac- the process is already underway. into another room, identical to the one he complished. Nanomachines have crossed the blood- is in. On a bed in the middle of the room This NRS is the key to uploading. It brain barrier and are systematically re- lies his body, still connected to its cable. has two purposes. First, when it replaces placing each neuron with a functionally For a moment, he watches it breathe. All a neuron, it must function just like the equivalent artificial structure. This struc- of its neurons have been replaced, but his neuron it replaced. Externally, this means ture is very special. Part of it is a series of new autonomic nervous system still con- that it must interact with the remaining nanomachine actuators that interact with trols his old body. Just as in a dream, neurons with which it is in contact just like neighboring cells just as though the re- however, his conscious movements no the neuron did. This must be done through placed neuron were still in place. The rest longer make his old body move. The doc- physical actuators that release and ab- of his body cannot tell that anything has tor hands him a switch which he knows sorb synaptic chemicals and electrical changed. The remainder of the structure will turn off his old body. He represses the impulses. is a program that emulates the neuron feeling that he is committing suicide and Internally, the replacement structure and controls the actuators. throws the switch. In the next room the must be a program running on a computer A person is not just brain cells. The body — he no longer thinks of it as himself that controls the actuators. This program nanomachines invading Jason’s body will — releases its last breath and seems to is, in effect, a neuron emulator that learned, replace all sensory neurons as well, and relax. All nerve and muscle connections in the process of replacing the neuron, then replace all the parts of his body that are severed at once and the body dies how to successfully emulate it. influence the neurons with programs to instantly. The second purpose of the NRS do the same thing. Thus, muscles that He feels less emotion than he thought comes into use only when all neighboring stretch and flex will have their program he would. He knows that if he doesn’t like neurons have also been replaced. At that equivalents, and neither the replaced nor it here in Cyberspace, he can always have point instead of interacting with neighbor- the remaining neurons will be able to tell another physical body constructed, grown ing NRSs through actuators, it emulates which is which. from his original DNA, if he wishes. But the synapse as well. Now, it is all program. On the main computer there exists an right now that is not his concern. The room This procedure continues until the artificial world that, as far as sensory input around him appears ordinary and familiar¶ entire brain and all sensory structures is concerned, is identical to what Jason in order to ease his transition into have been replaced. Since seeing the sees and hears and feels as he lies on his Cyberspace, but outside the door is a vast transfer first-hand is important, let’s look bed. All of the sensory input — and this new world. It will take time to learn all it has at it from the perspective of a person includes the food in his stomach, the to offer. But time is what he now has. As an having it done. orientation of his limbs, his sense of entity running in Cyberspace, with proper breathing, as well as sight and sound — backup programs, he is assured of es- Uploading Jason Macklin is duplicated in Cyberspace. When every sentially unlimited life. Jason Macklin turns his head slightly neuron and its surrounding tissues have but cannot see the tube connected to his been replaced by their temporary physical References neck through his carotid artery. Still, he counterparts, the structures on the com- 1Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future knows it is there, and he knows what it will puter that control each replacement part of Robot and Human Intelligence. (Harvard do. For years he has resisted the urgings begin to interact among themselves di- University Press, 1988.) of family and friends to get rid of his natural rectly, in direct synchronization with how 2 body and upload his mind onto the Web, they perform in his body. Gradually, each Claude E. Shannon, “A Mathematical to become a creature in Cyberspace like synapse in his brain is absorbed into the Theory of Communication.” Bell System them. Unlike nearly everyone else, he program structure of the emulation pro- Tech. J. (July, 1948, October 1948.) doesn’t have even a neural tap to commu- gram, its functionality retained but its 3Paul M. Churchland, “Functionalism, Qualia, and Intentionality.” Philosophical EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 16 Topics 12, no.1: 121-145. Daniel C. Dennett, Brainstorms. (Montgomery, Nanotechnology and Faith J. Storrs Hall

The following thoughts appeared on sci.nanotech – the Internet newsgroup dedicated to discussing nanotechnology in all its aspects, from the social to the highly technical. It was written in response to other postings which are not reproduced here.

A recent letter from Thomas deserves a lot of thought. A major reason we as a society and as individuals are Donaldson to the cryonics list contained for that is precisely to keep our meme considerably better off than we would be the following: complex trimmed of the pseudo-religious without them. However, it would have been memes that commonly attach themselves silly to imagine the result as idyllic. 3. “WHEN NANOTECHNOLOGY to any similar vision. The same is true of nanotechnology. COMES...” It is vital to distinguish between a If you think our legal system is a mess vision, which “Nanotechnology” certainly now, imagine it after any one, much less This comment is a tangent more is, and a Faith, which it is not (and which all, of the nanotech developments that or less unrelated to the others. It we must constantly guard it from becom- could greatly affect our way of life. Imagine has consistently disturbed me ing). A vision, in the sense I’m using it the scale of industrial accidents or terror- that many cryonicists, particularly here, is a picture of some wonderful future ism, much less out-and-out war. It’s virtu- those using the above phrase or development for which the visionary has ally certain that if we do manage to in- its variations, speak about cryon- some reasonable grounds of belief. I’m crease our intelligence, we’ll increase the ics in very much the way 19th using “Faith” to mean a belief system, like complexity of everyday life more than century born-again Christians a religion, that is adhered to without any enough to make up for it. Even if I can buy might speak about the Millenium. reasonable evidence that it is true or pos- a newly manufactured body totally free I’ve heard a lot about nanotech- sible. from disease, I dread waking up the morn- nology, but just what is this Nano- Now “faith” is often used to denote ing after the warranty runs out. technology which is supposed to any belief by people wishing to denigrate The next religious meme that we need be coming? (The Christians, of that belief. For example, I’m occasionally to look out for is that of believing that one’s course, had a different word for it. accused of having a “faith in technological vision is unique, or the best, or other But that’s OK. Just change the progress”. I do believe that technological characterization that causes you to dis- words and what do you have?). progress tends to make things better for miss alternatives without serious consid- people in general. Detractors from this eration. It is easy to see how this meme Would Eric Klein or some other point of view exhibit any number of social is advantageous to a belief system in the exponent of this world view (the- problems and remind us that technology fierce competition of a memetic ecology; ology?) explain in simple terms hasn’t solved them. This might be a valid it is also easy to see how unlikely it is just what this Nanotechnology is? argument if I had a Faith of the religious actually to be true. This meme finds its And please note the capital letter: variety; i.e. that technology would solve all ultimate expression in religious wars. as I said, I already know a lot problems. Of course it won’t—and indeed Note that if one is actually working to about the uncapitalized form. it does create some new problems: If you develop something, some mechanism cure a disease that was killing half the like this is necessary to focus the effort; but population (e.g. the Black Plague) you one should focus the effort because the For instance, I had a very strange must now find a way to feed all these effort needs to be focused to be effective, experience not long ago. Some- people you didn’t have to worry about rather than from an erroneous belief that one who (I think) is a Believer before. all alternatives are bad. claimed that when Nanotechnol- Thus one of the most obvious distin- Now one can imagine self-reproduc- ogy came, the tiny critters could guishing characteristics between visions ing robots using computer and mechani- be used to cure cancer. When I and Faiths is that the object of faith is held cal technology not greatly different from pointed out that almost the same to be a panacea. Most religious paradises what currently exists; and molecular ma- thing, and to the same effect, was and many ideological utopias fall into this nipulation without self-reproducing robots. happening now by experimental category: “Once we get to X, there simply One can imagine many of the effects we treatments in which lymphocytes won’t be anything wrong.” anticipate, being done by biomolecular were modified and cultured up in It is all too easy to take a vision and engineering, others by extensions of con- large number to attack a patient’s hang this meme onto it, which makes it ventional chemistry, AI being achieved by cancer, he seemed not to notice, much less useful for either predicting or ingenious innovations in software instead shrugging it off with the state- designing the future. For example, take of simulating brains, etc. ment that Nanotechnology will do the vision which some people had around Another view is that nanotechnology much more. the turn of the century of universal owner- is simply a name for any technique or This is a good question, and one that ship of motorcars. This is a good vision; group of techniques that manipulates

17 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 matter at the molecular level. In this view not to try to convince others of this belief.” rability. It is our responsibility to continue nanotechnology is unique because it is In ideological faiths, this meme expresses to scrub nanotechnology to keep it free of all-inclusive. The trouble with this defini- itself in the social castigation of the Politi- them. tion is that it allows one to call anything cally Incorrect. Nevertheless, I do believe that it is nanotechnology, e.g. chemistry. If so, then It is convenient to give names to these reasonable to put a fair amount of faith, in we have nanotechnology now, and it three memes (remember that a meme the simple uncapitalized sense of the doesn’t do all the things we claim. A rea- corresponds to a gene, i.e. it is the small- word, in the ability of advancing technol- sonable definition of nanotechnology est unit of idea replication that is identifi- ogy in general to solve a broad range of must include the notion of a broad and ably separable from the overall meme well-defined physical problems, among general ability to design, build, and control complex). We’ll call them Panacea, In- them the cure and/or prevention of certain molecular mechanisms across a very comparability, and Apostasy, respectively. diseases, or indeed the aging process wide range of possibilities. Nanotechnology seems mercifully itself. Such a belief is reasonable not only, A third and final memetic attachment free of Apostasy at the moment: No one or even primarily, because we can posit that makes a Faith out of a vision is some seems to be claiming it’s any kind of sin particular mechanisms for the solutions, hook that relates directly to belief and to disbelieve the Word of Saint Eric. There but because we have a long history of propagation: “Not only should you believe is some tendency, unfortunately, for nano- scientific and technological success ¶for this simply because it is true, but you’ll go technology as a set of popular ideas, to just such problems. to Hell if you don’t. Furthermore, it’s a sin accrete a bit of Panacea and/or Incompa-

THE MAKING OF A SMALL WORLD Fiction by Mike Perry

[This story originally appeared in Venturist “Put you to a painful death?” lennium. I want them to sing my praises. Monthly News, April 1989, and is reprinted “Very. Only the backup information I want it to be a long time before they with permission.] saved me, and they would have eaten that become dissatisfied enough to develop if they could, the miserable vermin. Why if and apply for membership and start play- you could have seen –” ing the games we play...” “You requested audience, appren- “Tell me about it later. How’re they “Still haven’t grown up, eh? Well, the tice Gorn?” doing now?” rules entitle you to one more shot.” “Yes O Great Wizard Snorrl, Lord of “Oh, fine, just fine, ought to be applying “So what you suggest is... ?” Galaxies, ruler of Many Worlds, King of for membership soon, which means I’ll “If you really must know...?” Evolved Immortals...” be in a jam for overpopulating...” “Of course, why did I request audi- “Enough! What can I do for you, young “I wouldn’t worry too much, this time. ence?” fellow?” How about your next world?” “Yes, I suppose you have to have your “I’m having trouble playing God.” “Yes, I did make another one, and that way. Well, this’ll sound crazy, but about the “Not an uncommon thing, your first time, I naturally tried to avoid the public best strategy is to give ‘em a good, severe billion years (to invoke our ancient and spotlight, went around in secret, showing beating every day of their lives.” honored time unit)... What is your prob- myself to a few only...” “What?” lem?” “And...?” “They’ll fear you, they’ll respect you, “They don’t respect me.” “Well, mostly they didn’t believe I ex- and they’ll love you.” “Your charges? Tell me about it.” isted. And they’ll be applying for member- [Long pause.] “Yes, I admit there’s a “Well, first I made this world, got it ship soon, too, and...” certain logic to that, but I’d have to be many peopled it with intelligent life, in a nice “Argh! So twice in a row you’ve lost places at once... use robots, of course! setting I had made with forests and mead- control after only a few thousand years.” Big, metallic buzzing things with wings for ows, creatures that crawled and flew and “Uh, about 900 years in the last case.” hot pursuit and clawed feet for grasping leaped and galloped, all the usual things...” “Oh, my. Well, as you know, you only and whiplash antennas for striking hard. “You got a genome permit?” have one more try at this thing. Maybe you And I know just the creatures to clone and “Oh yes, all straight evolved lifeforms, ought to get out while the getting’s good, try it on... picked up some genomes on a nothing tampered with already...?” to avoid discredit. Take up cosmological nice blue planet that was third out from it’s “Very good. Go on.” eschatology or something respecta--” primary, I can even recreate some of their “So then I went among the inhabi- “No! I want to build a world of primi- original language and culture -- their year tants, did good things, healed the sick, fed tives and keep them that way as long as is almost the same as ours, by the way --” the hungry, spoke kind words, and... well, possible. I want to lord it over them, “I see your mindwheels are whirring, they...” century after century, millennium after mil- so I’ll leave you be.”

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 18 “Yes, I must start building this world empty ‘freedom from abuse’ anyway? it better when they stop. I don’t know how at once...” What good would it do? Recently we’ve I’d adjust to no beatings, but I do consider developed some tight fitting clothing to it from time to time.” * * * better distribute the force of the blows, and But some authorities are so dis- that’s what I consider progress.” tressed by what they perceive as an affront 1,000,000 years later, the Daily Globe, a Other voices are being raised in de- to the natural order of things that they are leading newspaper on the world created fense of Just Punishment and similar taking legal action. Recently the Depart- by Gorn, reports: practices among humans. Ezeldadeath ment of Proper Behavior filed felony Bugler-Boss, spokeswoman for the Com- charges against COPA for obstructing due Weird scheme to defeat Just Punishment; mittee for Ethical Bruising, declares that process and attempted sabotage. COPA scientists scoff; ethicists howl; legislators “Beatings are beautiful, pure and simple. attorney Anthony Sharp denies that his vow to stop it. I just bubble with warm feeling over the organization has broken the law, arguing worth of welts.” She is “looking forward to that “laws protect human lives and prop- A group claiming that Just Punish- an expanded role for impact therapy in erty but there is no law specifically forbid- ment is “unjust” say they believe it can be human life,” and argues that “a little ding the sort of practice that COPA is “defeated” through science. Simon Burr, hand-to-hand combat from time to time engaged in. The robots are not human spokesman for the self-styled “Commit- could usefully augment the blessings of property nor an endangered species. To tee for the Overthrow of Physical Abuse” Just Punishment.” Asked about COPA interfere with or even destroy them is no (COPA) claims “the robots that administer she indignantly concludes, “Our whole violation of law but simply an exercise of our daily beatings could be destroyed society is predicated on the assumption constitutional rights.” But DPB officials through technological means,” and cites of daily beatings, which we humbly accept are sure COPA can be challenged on an example where a robot was held at bay as a foundation of our being and a spring- legal grounds. As Chief Administrator for more than an hour while its intended board for spiritual growth. When you Wilbur McTwitch put it: “The framers of the “victim” escaped. Scientists, however, consider all the benefits -- the stability, the Constitution wanted to promote individual take a dim view of Burr’s proposal. Jeffrey security, the certainty -- of knowing this rights, but the rights of the individual must Snag, senior researcher at Applied Me- meaningful experience will always be with ever be subordinate to the machinery of chanical and Aesthetics, a firm special- us, I don’t see how anyone can raise an great Gorn. I think there is legal precedent izing in technology for improving the qual- objection.” to act against those who would attempt a ity of life and justice, says, “The idea of However John Crue, a construction change on so fundamental a level, and if interfering with such superlative machin- worker, admits he is “not entirely happy not it could be established. I am looking ery is just patently absurd. There’s no with the punishment we get for the crime forward to this case.” prospect for defeating the robots in the of being alive” and comments further that foreseeable future -- they are simply too “being whipped like a horse by giant flying ¶ swift and powerful. Besides, why try for an things may have its advantages, but I like

Extropy reality check: Risks in perspective.

Cigarette smoking (one pack/day) 1600 days Being poor vs well-to-do 1400 Working as a miner 1000 Being overweight by 30 lb 900 Motor vehicle accidents 200 Small cars vs large cars 100 Being murdered 90 Falls 40 Drowning 40 Speed limit raised from 55 mph to 65 mph 40 Poison + suffocation + asphyxiation 37 Fire, burns 27 Firearms 11 Nuclear power (UCS) 1.5 Nuclear power (NRC) 0.03

Table from B.L. Cohen and I.S. Lee. “A catalog of risks,” Health Phys., 36, 707 (1979). Reprinted in Bernard L. Cohen, “The Risks of Nuclear Power” in The Resourceful Earth, p.561. 19 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Neurocomputing 6: Genetic Algorithms Simon! D. Levy

Imagine the following scenario: You salesman’s task as a kind of ecological below a certain level of success at solving are a traveling salesman who must make niche, so that a good solution is an organ- the problem. a tour of a large number of cities that are ism that can perform the task without interconnected by a network of roads. You dying of exhaustion or losing out to more (4) Create new solutions by splicing need visit each city only once. To save successful competitors. Unlike most com- together a parts of one successful solu- yourself time and gas money, you want to puter algorithms, though, the solutions tion with parts of another. take the most efficient route possible, developed by Nature are not the result of spending as little time as you can on the deliberate planning by a conscious agent. (5) Every now and then, “mutate” (ran- road. What kind of decision procedure can Instead, Nature relies on random muta- domize) some part of some solution. you use to come up with the best travel tion and natural selection, as described plan? originally by Charles Darwin in The Origin (6) Go to (2). This scenario, commonly called the of Species, and more recently by Richard “traveling salesman problem,” is one of a Dawkins in The Blind Watchmaker (re- As usual, I think it’s a good idea to class of mathematical puzzles known as viewed in this issue). Good solutions arise illustrate this procedure with an example. optimization problems. For the traveling by mutation – accidental, minor changes I don’t have the paper (or the patience) salesman problem, as for many other in genes – and are favoredby the environ- necessary to fiddle with the traveling sales- optimization problems, there is no gen- ment, allowing the organism bearing the man problem, so I’ll switch to something eral algorithm that will guarantee you the mutant genes to survive, reproduce, and a little less complicated, namely, a neural best solution in a reasonable amount of pass these genes on to its offspring. Sexual network implementation of the Boolean time. Various methods have been ex- reproduction, in which an offspring gets XOR function, an example that I also used plored, with different degrees of success. half its genes from one organism and half for Neurocomputing 3. This function takes For example, you might simply measure from another, ensures that good solu- two inputs, each of which may be zero or every possible route through all the cities, tions will get a chance to combine, pro- one, and outputs a one if the inputs are and then pick the one that covered the ducing offspring that may be better than different. If the inputs are the same, the least distance. Of course, this “brute force” either parent. output is zero. In other words... solution would become impracticable for Genetic algorithms, first developed anything more than a handful of cities, by John Holland at the University of Michi- Input 1 Input 2 Output because the number of possible routes gan, exploit this cycle of mutation, sex, and 0 0 0 increases very rapidly as you add more natural selection in an attempt to arrive at 0 1 1 cities. Parallelizing the problem by getting solutions to optimization problems. The a bunch of computers to try one route general procedure is delightfully simple 1 0 1 each, and then comparing the results, is and can be described by the following 1 1 0 one way to improve the usefulness of this steps: approach. Now, an interesting problem is how A second, more common approach (1) Start with a set of possible to train a neural network to “become” this involves gradient descent along an “error solutions to your problem. If you have no function. That is, given the following dia- surface” generated by a particular solu- idea of how a good solution would look, gram, where I’s are inputs, W’s are mul- tion and its neighbors. The idea is to take just generate these first solutions ran- tiplicative connection weights, sigmas are the error of the current solution and com- domly. summations, and thetas are thresholds, pare it to the error of nearby (i.e., similar) we wish to obtain W’s and thetas such that solutions, moving to the neighbor with the (2) Take each possible solution, ap- the input/output relations of the function lowest error. Gradient descent is a funda- ply it to the problem, and examine the are all satisfied. mental technique in neural network algo- results. If you’re satisfied with some rithms, especially back propagation. See solution(s), quit here. Otherwise, go on to As readers of Extropy 6 will recall, one my Neurocomputing 3 article in Extropy 6, step (3). scheme for getting succcessful network and references therein, for more informa- parameters is back-propagation, whereby tion. (3) Based on some previously estab- the network’s actual output is compared Now consider how Nature handles lished criterion, reject solutions that fall with the desired output, and the difference such problems. You can view the traveling between actual and desired output is EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 20 propagated back through the network, to much smaller than the number of organ- program for studying the behavior of ants adjust the weights and thetas. isms that got a score of 3/4. This result is through simulation. Of course, our present concern is what we expect, because the niche we In the next installation of this column, genetic algorithms, so the question arises defined was a score of 3/4, meaning that I’ll discuss a topic that seems to interest as to whether we can “breed” a network – 4/4 scorers was over-achievers. Second, many members of the Extropians mailing call it an XORganism – to do the XOR the emergence of these over-achieving list, namely, the idea of modeling econo- problem. To examine this question, I wrote “uber-organisms” seemed to depend a mies computationally, or modeling com-¶ a little C program that worked as follows. lot on initial conditions. If the initial random puters economically. (As usual, this program is available to creation of 100 organisms produced one Extropy readers at no cost, by sending a with a perfect score, that organism tended SOURCES letter to me care of the magazine.) Each to reproduce itself, making lots of other Books organism was represented, naturally, by over-achievers, but if no over-achiever ex- five weights and two thetas. These were isted from the start, chances were fairly A.K. Dewdney. The Armchair Universe. the seven “genes” of the organism. “Mat- good that none would emerge. Finally, ing” consisted of producing a new organ- adding mutations seemed to have a ben- New York: W.H. Freeman. 1988 (See ism with half the genes of one parent and eficial effect on the number of over-achiev- especially the chapter entitled “The Evo- half the genes of another. Since organ- ers produced. For example, I compared lution of Flibs”) isms had seven genes each, the program 10 runs of 100 generations, all with a flipped a coin to determine which parent single organism being mutated every gen- J. Holland. Adaptation in Natural and the seventh gene came from. The pro- eration, against 10 runs of 100 genera- Artifical Systems. Ann Arbor: Univer-

sity of Michigan Press. 1975. gram started with a collection of 100 tions with no mutations at all. The average organisms with random genes. For each number of uber-organisms produced with Articles generation, the program computed each mutations was around 32, whereas the organism’s score on the XOR problem, number produced with no mutations was and killed off any organism that got fewer about 9. M. Antonoff. “Genetic Algorithms: Soft- that three out of four correct on the prob- Using genetic (or neural net) algo- ware by Natural Selection.” Popular lem. Then, the program bred the resulting rithms to model Boolean functions may Science, October 1991. organisms according to the mating be overkill, like earning a Ph.D. in math- scheme just described. In addition, the ematics so that you can balance your R. Morin. “A Look at Genetic program mutated (randomized) a ran- checkbook. Nevertheless, the XORganism Agorithms.” SunExpert Magazine, No- domly picked gene in some randomly example is instructive because it shows vember 1990. picked organisms every few generations. how a simple neural net problem can be Parameters of the program were (1) the solved by the technique of genetic algo- number of matings per generation, (2) the rithms, thereby showing one way in which P. Wayner. “Genetic Algorithms.” minimum score necessary for survival, genetic algorithms fit into the rubric of BYTE, January 1991. (3) the number of generations between neurocomputing. Genetic algorithms have mutations, and (4) the number of organ- also caught on for “real-world” applica- isms to mutate in a mutating generation. tions. One usage, not surprisingly, is the I didn’t have time to explore possibili- solution of optimization problems similar ties that would result from fiddling with all to the traveling salesman problem de- the parameters, but some things about scribed above. These include the design the XORganisms seemed pretty clear af- of aircraft and VLSI chips. Other applica- ter several runs of 100 generations or so. tions include an image-recognizing pro- First, the number of completely success- gram that looks at many sub-programs, ful organisms (score = 4/4) was always linking together those that run best, and a

21 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Time Travel and Computing Hans Moravec

© May 1991 by Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (412) 268-3829

The last few years have been good for clockwork processes of physical law, with- ciently that a spaceship accelerating time machines. Kip Thorne’s renowned out the slightest hint of a mechanism for around the universe can arrange to return general relativity group at Caltech invented evading its unvarying progress. That time to the place and time of its launch, giving a new quantum gravitational approach to machines were provably impossible was the crew an opportunity to wave bon voy- building a time gate, and, in an interna- conveyed convincingly to generations of age to their departing younger selves. tional collaboration, gave a plausible re- students, and echoes to this day. General relativity has been repeatedly buttal of “grandfather paradox” arguments The physics revolution at the begin- confirmed experimentally in the large against time travel. Another respected ning of the twentieth century shattered scale, so those who dislike the prediction group suggested time machines that ex- objective certainty about the immutability take solace in the fact that our universe ploit quantum mechanical time uncer- of time, but not most physicists’ gut assur- appears hardly to rotate. tainty. The technical requirements for ances. Special relativity combined space The next major class of solutions, these suggestions exceed our present and time into a single continuum, with made in the 1960s by Roy Kerr and Ezra capabilities, but each new approach velocity a kind of rotation that transformed Newman and colleagues, are harder to seems less onerous than the last. There one into the other. A barrier—the speed of dismiss. The Kerr-Newman solutions of is hope yet that time travel will eventually light—still separated the “spacelike” from the Einstein equations are for rapidly ro- become possible, even cheap. the “timelike”, but it was a fragile one. tating and/or charged black holes. In the There was nothing in special relativity most extreme of these, the rotation of the Most time-machine fiction deals with itself to preclude the existence of par- body counteracts the gravitation enough the sociological implications of temporal ticles, now dubbed tachyons, that always to expose the twisted viscera of the black trips or messages—indeed the time travel moved faster than light. A tachyon mes- hole (normally hidden behind a discreet, is often a mere literary device for placing sage returned by a distant, rapidly reced- one way, event horizon) including regions humans in unusual situations. A recent ing relay could arrive before it was sent, a of negative spacetime, from which a paper from Thorne’s group, by contrast, consequence construed by the conserva- spaceship could return to the outside uni- examines time travel at a basic physical tive majority of the physics community as verse before it entered. Attempts by the level, deriving the quantum mechanical an indictment of tachyons. The impossi- conservative majority to find independent wave functions of systems that contain bility of time travel (or closed causal loops, reasons for a cosmic censorship rule to temporal loops. This article looks at the or, in the language of relativity, closed prevent such lewd exposure have been situation at an intermediate scale—the “timelike” loops) had become an axiom of unsuccessful, so far. Their only comfort is uses of time travel, packaged as negative physical law. Tachyons have not, in fact, that it would take about the mass of a time delay elements, on computation. This been detected, even though they should galaxy, with extraordinary spin, to make a view is interesting because, on one hand, be creatable with arbitrarily little energy practical time machine this way. it predicts colossal improvements in the (the faster they move, the less it takes), so In 1974 Frank Tipler published an- ability to solve important problems, and, perhaps the conservative majority is cor- other solution to the general relativity equa- on the other, provides a crisp logical meta- rect in this case (but perhaps they just tions, this time for the region around an phor for macroscopic implications of time have a tendency to hide - see below). extremely dense, very long rapidly spin- travel. General relativity patches together tiny ning cylinder—dense as a neutron star, regions of flat special-relativistic the diameter of a city block, with its surface A Brief History of Time Travel spacetime into large gravity-warped struc- moving at about one fourth the speed of tures. Powerful gravity fields imply radi- light, and infinitely long, because that sim- When H.G. Wells wrote The Time cally convoluted spacetimes. Kurt Gödel plified the mathematics. Spacetime wraps Machine, his first novel, in 1895, the scien- was first, in 1949, to notice that general itself around such an object like a roll of tific world was unimpressed. In that Vic- relativity predicted time travel under cer- paper, producing alternate layers of nega- torian age Science was in the process of tain circumstances. In Gödel’s solution to tive and positive spacetime. A carefully crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s on Einstein’s equations, the centrifugal ten- aimed spaceship could swing around Newtonian mechanics, and worrying dency of a rotating universe exactly bal- such an object, staying mostly in a nega- about unemployment in the coming age of ances its tendency to gravitationally col- tive region, and come out before it left. A fully codified physical knowledge. Time lapse. In such a universe the spacelike finite length cylinder should also work, was a rigid universal framework for the and timelike directions are skewed suffi- and might allow a time machine with only

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 22 the mass of a star. But, the conservatives nations involve “boundary conditions”, the of the universe to reverse it—perhaps say, maybe it’s not possible to prevent a initial values of physical quantities at the because the universe is “open”, and ex- finite cylinder from gravitationally collaps- edges of space and time, which the differ- pands forever. If this is a correct explana- ing lengthwise. ential equations of physical law then fill tion, it might be possible to send signals As yet, no one has devised a satisfac- out. The universe must be somehow very backward in time by means of a kind a tory comprehensive single theory that different at one end than the other, and this reflector that acts like the big bang—maybe combines gravity and quantum mechan- difference orients the arrow of time. Most a black hole. Such a reflector would re- ics—many try, and the implications of such common is the thermodynamic explana- verse and return a retarded wave, cancel- a theory promise to be awesome. In 1988 tion, which talks about the state of disor- ling and thus apparently preventing it. If Kip Thorne and company, patching to- der or “entropy” of matter and energy. The the reflector were installed one light year gether partial theories, described a time universe started in a very rare, highly or- away from a light source aimed at it, it machine using both quantum mechanics dered state, and is running down into would suppress light from the source one and general relativity. A tiny, spontane- increasingly common states of disorder. year before installation. Similarly the sup- ously formed, gravitational spacetime Though this explains why a ship can’t run pression would go away one year before wormhole is pulled out of the hyperactive its engines by separating water into steam the reflector was removed. Messages froth that is the quantum vacuum, and and ice, it does not explain why one can’t could be sent a year into the past simply stabilized, by two large conductive plates, send today’s lottery numbers into yester- by moving the reflector in and out of the resembling an electrical capacitor. Ini- day by expending a few megawatt hours of beam. Recently John Cramer devised an tially these plates are as closely spaced energy. One explanation which does was interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, as possible, and each becomes host to offered by John Wheeler and Richard called the transactional model, that uses one “mouth” of the wormhole. When they Feynman in 1945. They noted that this approach to explain every interaction. are separated in our normal spacetime, Transmission of a photon from one place they yet remain connected through the to another actually involves two signals, wormhole, which is an independent This kind of machine one moving forward in time, the other spacetime tunnel. Regardless of their backward, a “handshake”, between the external separation, a message or object could perhaps be con- two locations. In Cramer’s model a time entering one mouth appears instantly (by structed with a planet's communicator could be built that works its own reckoning) at the other, as if the much like the Wheeler-Feynman type, but mouths were the two sides of a single worth of aluminum using a wave absorber to prevent a trans- door. Thorne’s group then uses special action, rather than a reflector to cancel it. relativity to differentially age the two spread out into plates the There is a spookier possibility. Sup- mouths. One is taken on a “twin paradox” size of Earth's orbit, pose it is easy to send messages to the round trip at near the speed of light, so that past, but that forward causality also holds less time elapses for it than its stationary separated by the size of (i.e. past events determine the future). In counterpart. When it returns, the external an atom – still beyond one way of reasoning about it, a message separation between the two mouths has sent to the past will “alter” the entire history a time as well as a space component. A our means, but getting following its receipt, including the event message sent into the itinerant mouth closer. that sent it, and thus the message itself. exits from the stationary one after a delay. Thus altered, the message will change And a message delivered into the station- the past in a different way, and so on, until ary mouth exits from the traveller before it some “equilibrium” is reached—the sim- was sent! This kind of machine could plest being the situation where no mes- perhaps be constructed with a planet’s Maxwell’s equations, the first “modern” sage at all is sent. Time travel may thus worth of aluminum spread out into plates physical theory, give two solutions for the act to erase itself (an idea Larry Niven fans the area of Earth’s orbit, separated by the effect of accelerating an electric charge. will recognize as “Niven’s Law”). This size of an atom—still beyond our means, One, called the retarded wave, follows the situation can be modeled quantum me- but getting closer. The non-linear equa- acceleration and describes an electro- chanically. If the message is a particle tions of general relativity are notoriously magnetic disturbance diverging outward sent to the past, the wave function for that hard to solve, and only the very simplest at the speed of light—the radio waves particle will subsequently propagate into cases have been explored. Even more which link our civilization. The other, called the future, where it encounters and “inter- significantly, there isn’t any theory of quan- the advanced wave, is for a similar distur- feres” with its original self, cancelling or tum gravity yet at all. It’s quite possible that bance that precedes the acceleration and reinforcing depending on the relative in all this unexplored territory, waiting to be converges on it (or, in another way of phase (which depends on the round trip discovered, lie quite feasible ways to build looking at it, diverges backwards in time). length and other things). Now, the result- time machines. This latter wave is never seen. Wheeler ant wave function indicates the possible Another approach to time travel asks and Feynman’s analysis assumes that places the particle might actually be found why it isn’t observed routinely. There is no the advanced wave is, in fact, produced, in a measurement—large magnitudes intrinsic time direction in Newton’s me- and expands outwards into the past. are likely locations, near zero values un- chanics nor in the differential equations of There, eventually, it encounters a condi- likely ones. A round trip that causes the the new physics. The future determines tion, perhaps the extreme density of the particle wave function to be cancel itself the past just as fully as the past deter- big bang at the beginning of the universe, means that a particle is unlikely ever to be mines the future. Why, then, can our past that reflects it, producing a retarded wave positioned to start the trip. It is exactly this selves leave messages for our future, but exactly out of phase, that retraces its kind of quantum probability effect (without seemingly absolutely never the other way spacetime and exactly cancels it out. The reference to time travel) that powerfully around? This question has not been retarded wave from an accelerated charge confines electrons to discrete shells about definitively answered. Attempted expla- is not cancelled in an analogous manner, the atomic nucleus and causes the “Pauli because there is no reflector in the future 23 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 exclusion principle” that prevents two in- distinguishable electrons from being in the same place simultaneously. The Wheeler-Feynman advanced wave theory, Cramer’s transactional model of quan- tum mechanics, and even quantum elec- trodynamics, the most accurately verified physical theory we have, all involve inter- actions that reach backwards as well as forwards in time. It may well be that time travel is as common as dirt, and shapes our physical laws, but conspires, by wave function interference, to prevent any op- erations that would result in logically in- consistent situations, and so makes overt macroscopic time travel difficult. Even with a time machine you will never suc- ceed in preventing your own birth, or chang- Causal loops involving an amplifier (triangle) and inverter (triangle with circle) in ing the antecedents of any present obser- causal loops with negative time delays (-Æt) that cancel their forward delay. vation—some odd co-incidence or acci- dent (perhaps one disabling your time machine) will always thwart the attempt. similar loop tends to oscillate rapidly be- to one side or the other. This is Niven’s law But this does not rule out carefully con- tween 0 and 1, at a rate that depends on at work in the small. The circuit finds itself trived logically consistent causal loops its delay. It is possible to slow down this perpetually in a dark fringe of an interfer- (The recent paper by Friedman, Morris, oscillation by inserting extra delay into the ence pattern. Novikov, Escheverria, Klinkhammer, loop. Conversely, a negative delay ele- On the other hand, suppose the two Thorne and Yurtsever examines the con- ment would speed up the oscillation. Imag- signals are encoded as beams of identi- sequences of such constraints on the ine the two cases of an amplifier and a cal phase but opposite polarization (hori- wormhole time machine mentioned ear- NOT gate with a certain delays each with zontal or vertical direction of vibration). lier). Wave interference typically appears its output connected to its input through a Then the light in the inverter circuit will be as banded patterns with a strong central negative delay device. (See illustration in step with itself, and so should ignite. But (zero order) peak surrounded by a dark above.) what about the polarization? Neither of fringe, itself surrounded by the another the possibilities individually results in a (first order) bright fringe, and so on. If The amplifier circuit is in a consistent consistent situation, but quantum me- causal loops behave this way, it will be causal loop—when first switched on, it chanics allows these to be superimposed necessary to make major perturbations in can permanently assume either 0 or 1 to produce a mixed state. The mixed state experimental arrangement to skip from without contradiction. The loop with the that contains equal measures of 0 and 1 the usual zero order (no overt time travel) inverter, on the other hand, is a simple is changed by the inverter to an indistin- situation to a first order case of a non trivial case of the classical time travel grandfa- guishable mix of 1 and 0, and so allows consistent causal loop. ther paradox, a paradoxical causal loop. the circuit to remain consistent. Light with Let’s suppose that eventually some An input of 1 to the inverter gives an output equal amounts of vertical and horizontal approach results in a practical, even cheap, of 0, which is brought back in time to polarization is unpolarized. The inverting way to package time machines to make contradict the input. It takes some quan- causal loop insures that the light remains negative time delay elements—which out- tum mechanics to make sense of the perfectly unpolarized. An attempt to change put signals that predict what their inputs situation, and we will have to say some- this, for instance by slipping a polarizing will receive some fixed time later. Such thing about how the signals are physically filter somewhere into the circuit, should devices would have very interesting con- represented. Most digital circuits repre- cause the beam to extinguish, as for phase sequences for computational problems, sent signals as electrical voltages or cur- modulation. which increasingly means almost every rents in wires, which is inconvenient be- Imagine that the beam in the polariza- field of activity. cause electrons interact with each other tion modulated inverter circuit is sampled, and with matter in complex, hard to ana- perhaps by a partially silvered mirror, and Time Loop Logic lyze ways. Some experimental circuits examined. Quantum mechanics tells us use much simpler space-crossing that each extracted photon will be in a Computer circuitry is composed of beams of light . Let’s suppose 1 and 0 are mixed state of polarization until the polar- devices called gates that combine binary encoded as coherent light beams of op- ization is measured, at which point it “col- signals to produce other such signals. posite phase (perfectly out of step with lapses” to one possibility or the other. The simplest gate is an amplifier whose one another—one crests where the other Sometimes the photon is in a 1 state, output is identical to its input. Almost as has troughs). In that case a 0 that meets equally often it is found to be a 0. But simple is the NOT gate, or inverter, whose a 1, as in the inverter circuit, will simply suppose, as in existing computer circuitry, output is 0 when its input is 1, and vice cancel. Either alternative would have zero signals are represented not by single versa. All gates take a little time to respond net probability, and the circuit (perhaps particles but by bulk aggregates which to changes in their input—typically a few containing a charged laser, ready to emit behave almost like classical continuous billionths of a second. When the input of a beam) should simply fail to turn on variables. An aggregate of random values an amplifier is connected to its output, the (ignite) at all, somewhat like a ball bal- will act like a signal intermediate in value circuit will lock up with its output perma- anced on a knife edge that, against all between 0 and 1, say around 1/2. In nently at either 0 or 1. A NOT gate in a odds, teeters indefinitely instead of falling classical terms, it makes sense that a

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 24 F

circuit that converts 0 to 1 and 1 to 0 should still approximate, result. Given an appro- problems of exponential complexity. leave some intermediate value un- priate negative delay something else is These multiply in cost with each fixed changed: possible: increment of problem size. Whereas a There are other ways to view the situ- In this arrangement the result of each linear problem grows as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ..., ation. An inverting loop without a negative iteration of the function is brought back in and a cubic as 1, 8, 27, 64, 125, 216, ..., an delay will oscillate between 0 and 1 at a time to serve as the “first” approximation. exponential problem’s cost may grow as frequency that depends on the time delay As soon as the machine is activated, a so- 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000 and so of the inverter. As we insert increasingly called “fixed-point” of F, an input which on to the astronomical. An important class long negative delays in the circuit, the produces an identical output, usually sig- of apparently exponential problems are frequency of the oscillation increases. The naling a perfect answer, appears (by an called NP, short for Nondeterministic Poly- mixed state is when the frequency reaches extraordinary coincidence!) immediately nomial, meaning exponential problems infinity, and the circuit is in the 0 and 1 and steadily, just as either 1 or 0 appears that could be solved in polynomial time states simultaneously. Note also that the in the simple amplifier loop. If the iteration given an exponential supply of computers the inverter’s 1/2 state is extremely un- does not converge, that is, if F has no fixed to examine alternatives. Examples in- likely—a small deviation in the input would point, the computer outputs and inputs clude many design problems such as cause the output to saturate at one of the will shut down or hover in an unlikely finding the best arrangement of logic gates, two extremes. Yet the circuit indefinitely intermediate state, like the inverting loop. or the fastest program, to compute a given maintains precisely that unlikely situa- function, and also finding limited length tion. The negative delay connects regions The Compleat NP Machine proofs of mathematical theorems. Solv- of spacetime in the same way that the orbit ing such problems could synergistically of an electron around an atomic nucleus Generally speaking, whether a prob- increase the power of the machines that connects different parts of its wave func- lem can be solved in a computer depends solve them. Even poetry or music writing tion, and so creates electron shells sepa- on its computational complexity, which might fit, if approached as the problem of rated by empty regions. Like a focussing describes how the difficulty grows as the finding the best sequence of constrained lens that brings to a single spot photons problem increases in size. Finding the words or sounds to express an idea or a that would otherwise have landed all over largest number in a list of numbers takes state of mind. a target, it produces interference patterns time proportional to the list length. A graph The hard core of NP problems are that make a few states of the world very of computing time versus list length yields called NP complete, and it ‘s been shown likely and and the rest unlikely. It’s just a straight line—the complexity is linear, that a fast solution for any NP complete that, by eliminating the standard possibili- and this is an easy problem. Sorting the problem can be translated into a fast so- ties, negative time delays make likely list into numerical order is harder. Simple lution for any other. One famous and things that are otherwise nearly impos- methods take time proportional to the convenient NP task is the traveling sales- sible. square of the list length—the graph is an man problem—given n cities and the dis- upward curving parabola—and even the tances between pairs of them, find the Infinite Iteration best possible sorting methods give slight shortest tour that passes through each upward curves. The cost of solving a city exactly once. Here’s a more complicated case. system of n equations in n unknowns A version of the time loop iteration box Make a computing box that accepts an grows as the cube of n, and other prob- of the last section can quickly solve such input, which represents an approximate lems grow as the fourth, fifth or even higher a task. The F box for this problem takes as solution to some problem, and produces powers of the problem size. But any prob- input a particular tour, that is, a permuta- an output that is an improved approxima- lem whose difficulty can be expressed as tion of the cities. It also has a knob whose tion. Conventionally you would apply such a fixed power of size is of polynomial position specifies a limit on the length of a computation repeatedly a finite number complexity, and even large instances are the tour. The box calculates the input of times, and then settle for the better, but soon solvable in a world where computer tour’s length, and outputs the same tour if power doubles every few years. Not so that length is less than or equal to the limit. 25 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 If the length exceeds the limit, the box moves of the games, all but the best how nearly perfect a game is—and a per- generates the next permutation (by some moves can be pruned away. It is easy to fect game itself is recognized only by con- permutation counting scheme). When evaluate possible last moves—from the sidering and eliminating all other pos- the circuit is activated it settles down im- point of view of the player whose turn it is, sible games. mediately to a tour shorter than the limit, or some are wins, some are losses and There may be a devious way, how- some result in ever, to use negative delays to fold the draws, and no finer massive tree search in time, in a fashion distinctions need that makes the NP solver look positively be made. When pedestrian. This construction is going to all but the best last resemble a mathematical induction. Sup- moves are dis- pose we have a circuit (call it the n box) that, carded, the relative given a particular chessboard position n merits of second- moves into a game, is able to immediately to-last moves be- tell us its value (win, lose or draw), as if it come apparent— had searched the entire move tree from each is given by the there. We could then build a box that best last move that provides the same services for a position results from it. n-1 moves into the game by adding a This pruning pro- “single move unit” that takes the n-1 board, ceeds to earlier and, one by one, generates the possible and earlier moves next moves (typically about 30 of them), until the beginning and feeds the resulting boards to the n of the game, and box. It compares the n box results to one sticks in an undecided state if no such the best first move, is met. The chain of another, and chooses the best (for the solution exists—i.e. if the limit was set too best moves from first to last is a perfect player whose move it is). The time taken low. game of chess. to do this is cancelled by a negative time Turning the knob to find the boundary between these two conditions solves the n-1 box problem. The “knob turning” n box can, of course, be done au- tomatically by additional ma- chinery, for instance an ordi- nary computer. In fact, one can imagine building a very general “chronocomputer” by simply slipping a suffi- ciently large “negative delay register board” into a periph- eral slot of any computer. One can imagine a kind of general- delay element, and so the n-1 box, like the ized chess played on a variety of board n box, produces the value of a position as Solving Chess sizes, with 8 by 8 giving the standard soon as the position is presented. : game. Finding a perfect game is easy on The n box is itself composed of a NP problems quickly exceed conven- small boards, with few possible moves, single move unit and an n+1 box, and so tional computer capacity, but of exponen- but becomes enormously difficult as the on. The chain can be stopped eventually tial problems they are the easiest to solve. board grows. The standard game is al- because each single move unit has a In an NP problem there are an exponential ready so difficult that, despite known math- “short circuit” path that it uses when it number of candidate solutions to be con- ematical shortcuts, there is no hope that encounters a position that, because of a sidered, but the correctness and cost of a conventional computer, even one using king capture or excessive move count, is each candidate (a salesman tour, a circuit all the time and matter in the universe, already a win, loss, or draw and so re- for a function, a mathematical proof ) can could search the entire game tree. Today’s quires no further search. The whole ma- be checked easily, a fact our time-loop NP chess computers examine a few levels of chine is simply a chain of single move computer exploits. But there exist harder the tree, and use a formula to (very imper- units and negative time delays as long as exponential problems where evaluating a fectly) guess the value of the rest. the longest game (a few hundred moves single candidate answer is itself an expo- But time loop computers seem to for standard chess), with the last unit set nential problem. greatly transcend the power of conven- to permanently return a draw, signifying a Finding the best move in a game like tional machines. Can the approach used stalemate. chess is an instance of such a problem. for NP problems be applied here? If, Feed it the standard starting chess Your best move can be found by consider- instead of city tours, the input to the com- setup and the machine will immediately ing all possibilities for your move, then for putation box is the move sequence for an indicate whether the game is a forced win each of those, all possible responses by entire game, the box could be arranged to for white, black or a draw. To play (perfect) the opponent, and all your possible re- stabilize only on sufficiently “good” games. chess, give the machine the result of each sponses to all of those, and so on, until a But, unlike traveling salesman tours, of your possible moves, and choose one “tree” of all possible games has been games have only three values—win, lose it finds best. But what is the machine up mapped out. Then, working backwards or draw (for white, say). There seems no to in these deliberations? Having ac- from the “leaves” of this tree, i.e. the final easy way to assign a number to indicate cepted time travel logic, the operation of

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 26 the first single move unit is easy to intuit— a Gödelian true but unprovable statement rather than units downstream. As time it simply evaluates a few dozen possibili- in arithmetic. If so, we won’t be able to goes by, each copy repeatedly splits itself ties and returns the answer, through the prove that it is unprovable, since such a again, and the number of parallel ma- agency of a negative time delay, before its proof would imply that no counterexample chines grows exponentially. After a few deliberations are complete. The second (providing a negative proof of the theorem) hundred iterations, this single unit will stage is more mysterious. Its input is can be found, thus proving that no such have covered the same tree of alternative changed by the first unit after it has deliv- counterexample exists, thus proving that games as the extended chess machine. ered an answer, but while it is still doing the theorem is true, contradicting its But by letting it run beyond that point, the calculations for that answer! It is being unprovability. longer games can be examined. The asked to do several dozen different com- But Gödel’s theorems hinge on the answer is found by the peculiar procedure putations simultaneously. The third and finiteness of proofs. We might try to evade of inputting the initial chess board to the subsequent units are required to be in them with time loops. Suppose, as in the single move unit and peeking at its output even more bewildering states of superpo- NP machine example, we build an F box value at the start of the computation, then sition. The machine would certainly not that takes as input a quartet of numbers tightly closing an observation-proof box work if its interior were being observed, as {X,Y,Z,n} and tests them to see if they around it. The answer you receive right quantum observation collapses states of constitute a counterexample to Fermat’s away is trustworthy only if the machine is superposition to particular possibilities. conjecture. If so, the same numbers are subsequently left to run, undisturbed and Each single move unit would be seen to presented at the output of the box. If not, unobserved, for long enough . receive new boards to evaluate before it the “next” quartet is generated and fed via For more general problems, let’s con- had completed the previous ones. Even a negative time delay back to the input. sider an abstract device conceived in the weak observations (like hearing a whis- When the device is switched on, it imme- 1930s by British mathematician Alan Tur- per through a heavy wall), or indirect or diately shows a counterexample to the ing, inspired by David Hilbert’s concept of delayed ones, would cause occasional conjecture, if such exists, proving the con- “mechanizing” mathematics. A Turing collapses. To have any chance of giving jecture false. If , on the other hand, the Machine is a finite, usually simple, com- correct answers, the machine must be box’s signals hover in an intermediate puter or “finite state machine” connected totally protected from any peeking, per- state, the theorem must be true. to a “read/write head” that moves back haps by burying it in many layers of exotic There’s a problem, of course. A fi- and forth on an indefinitely long tape. The shielding, or by placing it out of range of nitely sized machine can examine num- machine proceeds in regular steps, at observation. Even then, its operation de- bers only as wide as its signal paths. The each reading a symbol on the square of pends on aspects of reality hidden from time loop gives a lot of leverage, since, in the tape under the head, then, controlled present day experiments, such as the an instant, it examines a number of cases by an unambiguous finite internal list of actual independent existence of the alter- exponential in the number of digits in rules, writing a symbol in its place, and native worlds that appear in quantum these paths. But the number is still finite, moving one square forward or back. By mechanical calculations. Time will tell. and if the machine fails to find a convention, the internal rulebook for any counterexample, one can’t be sure there given Turing Machine is fixed, but its tape The Non-Computable isn’t one that just happens to exceed its can be initialized with an arbitrary string of capacity. A search for any other kind of symbols. Turing showed that such ma- Exponential problems are big, but proof or disproof founders on this same chines, generally using lots of tape to finite. Our universe may not be large or Gödelian impasse—though a time loop store and reference initial inputs, interme- long lasting enough to solve serious in- machine can examine all alternatives of a diate results and final answers, existed stances of them without time travel, but it given length, a wonderful proof may yet for every conceivable computation. (See is possible to conceive of universes that elude us because the machine we’ve built next page.) are. But some problems are so hard that is too small to contain it. Turing also showed that there exist no bounded universe would be sufficient— In situations like Fermat’s last theo- machines that interpret the initial contents their complexity is infinite. Kurt Gödel, who rem we may willing to forgo an astronomi- of their tape as a rulebook of another discovered rotating-universe time travel cally (or infinitely) large proof or Turing Machine, and proceed, slowly, to in general relativity, is much better known counterexample if we are told by a trust- simulate this other machine. These are for shocking the mathematical commu- worthy source that the statement is true or called “Universal” Turing Machines, for nity with his incompleteness theorems, false—a compact answer that fits in a very their ability to do any computation that showing that in any consistent and suffi- small machine. The time computer tech- another machine can do. A Universal ciently interesting mathematical theory, niques we’ve discussed thus far exam- Turing Machine is a good mathematical there are unverifiable truths. ine, in a short fixed period, a number of model for a digital computer, and Turing In the seventeenth century Pierre cases exponential in the size of the ma- used the concept to prove “non-comput- Fermat wrote that he had discovered a chine. It may be possible to substitute ability” theorems that are equivalent to truly remarkable proof that there are no time for space, to build a small, continu- (but more straightforward than) Gödel’s integer solutions to the equation ously operating machine that examines “unprovability” results. Xn + nY = nZ when X, Y, Z > 1 and n > 2, but an exponentially increasing number of By appropriately initializing its tape, unfortunately the margin of the book he cases as time passes. Take, for in- one can program a Universal Turing Ma- was annotating was too small to contain stance, a single move unit from the chess chine, like a conventional computer, to do it. Subsequent generations of mathema- machine example, and connect its output just about any computation, for instance to ticians have searched in vain for this (or to its input via a negative time delay. Ob- search through {X,Y,Z,n} quartets looking any) proof to “Fermat’s last theorem”. Nor served, the system acts as a simple time for a counterexample to Fermat’s Last has a counterexample been found to prove loop, as in the NP example. But unob- Theorem, or through inference chains for it wrong. Most probably there was a subtle, served, the move sequencing might a proof or disproof. A literal Turing Ma- unnoticed, flaw in Fermat’s “proof”. Today spawn multiple alternatives, just as in the chine, though, is very slow—it spends the theorem remains a good candidate for chess solver, but of the original unit itself most of its time crawling back and forth

27 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 quired to be in a superposition of states, simultaneously examin- ing each of the first move’s alter- natives. When made of dumb machinery, it was reasonable to simply seal it off from observa- tion, to prevent spoiling the com- putation by collapsing the su- perposition to a single possibil- ity. But an intelligent friend will probably need to be released sooner or later, and will retain a memory of the computation. In the strange logic of quantum mechanics, this memory, re- across increasingly long stretches of tape In its sealed box, the head effectively leased from the box, constitutes an obser- to get at widely separated bits of informa- runs forward and backward in time, re- vation that retroactively collapses the com- tion. But it is amenable to a time-com- peatedly overwriting cells, spawning mul- putation. We could, of course, preserve puter transformation. Imagine that the tiple worlds ever faster. Yet the number of the superposition and the computation by tape runs not in space, but in time. At any situations the machine can examine (dif- callously keeping the boxes with our instant it is just a single square (probably ferent Fermat’s Last Theorem quartets, friends permanently sealed, or dropping a circuit) storing a symbol. Instead of for instance), can at most grow exponen- them down a black hole, or accelerating moving left or right, the head sends a tially in the machine’s running time. This them away beyond observation. But then is truly prodigious by conventional stan- there will be no way to learn about their dards, but still quite finite. So here we are, experiences. So, apparently, one can as far out on a speculative limb as I’m either exploit parallel worlds, or experi- willing to climb, and infinite problems re- ence a single one of them, but not both. “All main hopelessly out of reach. It’s time to the world’s a stage” wrote William quit. Shakespeare, and apparently we players act in only one story at a time. But when we¶ Time Travel, Consciousness close our eyes and listen closely, we hear from the wings the echoes of other sto- and Reality ries. Whether they really are other plays (with audiences?), or just sound effects by The above constructions are no less a clever stage manager, remains unde- strange when applied to “conventional” cided. time-travel scenarios. Imagine that the computation boxes actually contain hu- References: man beings—a person can quite plausi- message to its past self through a nega- bly evaluate the length of a traveling sales- recent time-travel articles: man tour, or enumerate the possible next tive delay, or to its future self through a Michael S. Morris, Kip S. Thorne and Ulvi positive delay: moves in a chess game. Assuming, as before, that all observations must be logi- Yurtsever, Wormholes, Time Machines, Many questions could be posed about and the Weak Energy Condition, Physical this design. A few have answers. Be- cally consistent, what would a human, so embedded in a time loop, experience? Review Letters 61#13, pp. 1446-1449, 26 cause the machine is created at a particu- September 1988. lar time, and does not exist before then, When the NP machine produces a solu- the “tape” ends abruptly in the backwards tion, its computation box evaluates only John Friedman, Michael S. Morris, Igor D. direction. This is not a problem because one case—a correct one, since quantum Novikov, Fernando Escheverria, Gunnar in any computation there are straightfor- interference cancels others. To the per- Klinkhammer, Kip S. Thorne and Ulvi ward ways to “fold” tape usage to exclu- son in the computation box, no less than Yurtsever, Cauchy Problem in Spacetimes sively the forward portion. Interesting com- to those outside, a correct answer ap- with Closed Timelike Curves, Physical putations will use a lot of tape—i.e. will pears, as if by magic, on the box’s input— Review D, 1990. extend far into the future. But if the program found correct, transcribed to the output, copies its ultimate answer to the cell ini- and relayed back in time, it also creates Yakir Aharonov, Jeeva Anandan, Sandu tially under the head, the answer will be that input—a circular but logically consis- Popescu and Lev Vaidman, Quantum immediately available. As with the the tent situation. On the other hand, there is Time-Translation Machine, Physical Re- folded chess machine, one must start the little reason to believe that worlds contain- view Letters 64#25, pp. 2965-2968, 18 “Temporal Turing Machine”, quickly peek ing incorrect solutions can be experienced, June 1990. at its tape cell for the answer, and then since such experiences would involve logi- seal it up, to let the computation run undis- cal contradictions. excellent summaries: Things are not so straightforward for turbed, unobserved. But then how is the Nick Herbert, Faster Than Light: program installed on the tape, on cells persons inside the chess machine—let’s put a friend in each single move unit. The Superluminal Loopholes In Physics, NAL corresponding to time periods when the Books, New York, 1988. machine is sealed? The easiest answer opening position unit feeds first moves is to encode it in the finite state portion of one after another to the rest of machine Barry Parker, Cosmic Time Travel: A Sci- the machine rather than the tape. (the “2” box), and examines the reponses— entific Odyssey, Plenum Press, New no difficulty. But the second unit is re- York, 1991. EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 28 Turing machines and computation: FUTIQUE NEOLOGISMS 3 Compiled by Max More

“Extropians are future shock wave riders.” - Jay Prime Positive.

The Futique Neologisms series is intended to provide a compilation of neologisms regarding advanced and future technologies and their applications. Some of them are purely for fun, but others may become entrenched in regular usage. Some of the terms listed are already widely accepted in transhumanist/extropian cultural groups.

ADHOCRACY – A non-bureaucratic net- (M/P < mC). [David Krieger, November electronic pocket calendar, or Apple's forth- worked organization. “This form is already 1991] coming Newton. [Lawrence G. Tesler] common in organizations such as law firms, consulting companies and research CYBRARIAN – Net-oriented information POWERSHIFT – A transfer of power involv- universities. Such organizations and in- specialist. [Jean Armour Polly, 1992] ing a change in the nature of power, from stitutions must continually readjust to a violence to wealth, or from wealth to knowl- changing array of projects, eah requiring EXTROPIATE – Any drug that has extropic edge. [Alvin Toffler in Powershift 1990] a somewhat different combinations of effects, including all cognition enhancing skills and other resources. These organi- and life extending drugs. [David Krieger, SMART BAR – A bar at which smart drinks zations depend on many rapidly shifting December 1991] are sold. Smart drinks usually contain project teams and much lateral commu- choline and/or an amino acid precursor nication among these relatively autono- EVOLUTURE – An organism produced (such as phenylalanine, tyrosine, or mous, entrepreneurial groups.” (Scien- through evolution; the antonym of crea- glutamine) for stimulatory neurotransmit- tific American, September 1991, p.133) ture. [Mark Plus, June 1991] ters. [Alvin Toffler, Future Shock, 1970] KNOWBOTS – Knowledge robots, first SMART-FACED – The condition resulting ASIMORT – (a) A dead science fiction developed by Vinton G. Cerf and Robert E. from social use of cognition-enhancing writer. (b) A dead secular humanist. (c) Kahn for National Research Initiatives. drugs: “Let’s get smart-faced.” [Russell Any person who believes it to be their duty Knowbots are programmed by users to E. Whitaker, December 1991] to die to make room for later generations. scan networks for various kinds of related [Mark Plus, April 1992] information, regardless of the language UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING – Also known or form in which it is expressed. “Know- as “embodied virtuality.” Computers that BIEVOMECH – (pron. bi-evo-mech) Bio- bots support parallel computations at dif- are an integral, invisible part of people's logical methods and mechanisms evolved ferent sites. They communicate with one lives. In some ways the opposite of virtual through natural selection. Examples: another, and with various servers in the reality, in which the user is absorbed into Hearts, lungs, skin, gills, DNA, ribosomes, network and with users.” (Scientific Ameri- the computational world. With ubiquitous and analogous non-teleologically evolved can, September 1991, p.74.) [Corpora- computing, computers take into account mechanisms in xenoevolutures. [Tanya tion for National Research Initiatives] the human world rather than requiring Jones, Jay Prime Positive, Ralph Whelan, humans to enter into the computers meth- December 1991] MORPHOLOGICAL FREEDOM – The abil- ods of working. [See Mark Weiser, “The ity to alter bodily form at will through tech- Computer for the 21st Century” in Scien- BOGOSITY FILTER – A mechanism for nologies such as surgery, genetic engi- tific American, September 1991. detecting bogus ideas and propositions. neering, nanotechnology, uploading. [Max More, April 1992] VITOLOGY – The study of any life-like BROADCATCHING – “Catching television system, including biology and artificial and other media selectively so that the NEG – Someone who typically complains, life. [Max More, December 1991] sum of the collected parts is personal- moans, and whines. Someone practicing ized.” (Quote by Nicholas P. Negroponte, the contrary of dynamic optimism. XENOEVOLUTURE – An evoluture from a Scientific American, September 1991, planet other than Earth. [Jay Prime Posi- p.112.) [Coined by Stewart Brand, The PARTIAL – A computer simulation of part tive, December 1991] Media Lab, 1987.] of a person's personality, created in order to carry out a task not requiring the entire The source of unattributed neologisms is CALCUTTA SYNDROME – The condition person. [Greg Bear, Eon, 1985] not known to the compiler. Please send in which the ratio of available mass to any corrections and additions, c/o the population falls below the minimum level PERICOMPUTER – Any small, portable editor. necessary to support a given quality of life computing device such as a laptop, an

29 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Exercise and Longevity Fran Finney

Who wants to grow old? If you are a growing older, the causes are not clear. tional changes with age. The regular Extropy reader, it is a fairly safe Are these all normal developments within majority of changes noted in assumption that aging is not one of your the aging process itself, or could they be the muscles of elderly per- favorite fantasies. Many of us have looked caused by the decreased activity levels sons are characteristics of dis- at length into various methods to slow that usually accompany advancing age? use rather than age.”[Pickles down (ideally to stop) the aging process. And, of course, there is the big ques- 83] A large number of these methods are tion of life expectancy - not only do we want experimental – some are quite expensive, to remain as youthful as possible through- Regular physical activity appears to some have no hard data to confirm that out our lives; we want to live longer as well! minimize the mass and strength losses they actually do much good, and some What effect, if any does exercise have on seen with aging A person who exercises even have mixed data suggesting that life expectancy? regularly throughout his/her life may not they could cause the opposite of what we show a significant decrease in either num- wish to achieve. There is, however, one ber or size of muscle fibers.[Costill 90A] simple factor that we can add to our lifestyle Muscle Mass, Strength, and Even the selective loss in fast-twitch fibers that can be arbitrarily cheap, has little, if might not be necessary Costill specu- any risk of shortening our lifespan, and, Performance Speed lates they are reabsorbed by the body in increasing evidence shows that by mak- response to the inactivity observed with ing this simple factor a daily part of our Most people believe that the human aging. Older adults who are physically lives, we can certainly retard some as- body achieves its maximal muscular active have been reported to have faster pects of the aging process. That factor is strength between the ages of 25 and 35 movement times than younger inactive regular physical stress to the cardiovas- years. Although there is a great deal of adults.[Cisar 91] cular and musculoskeletal systems, of variation in performance from person to How about a sedentary individual who long enough and intense enough dura- person, typically, an individual’s strength becomes more active? Can such a per- tion to evoke a physiological response declines at a steady rate after this age. In son undo the effects of his/her previously without causing irreparable damage, or, a sedentary adult, over time, muscular inactive lifestyle? Once a muscle fiber has in a nutshell, exercise. This article is not losses in mass, strength, and speed ap- been lost, it cannot be replaced. However, meant to suggest that exercise alone pear to be interrelated.[Costill 90A] individual muscle fibers can grow thicker. should be considered as an adequate life Let us first look at some of the physi- Furthermore, when type I fibers are sub- extension regimen, but, added to other ological changes to muscle tissue that jected to chronic stimulation at a high methods, it is certain to have positive accompany aging. At birth, a person is frequency (i.e. speedwork) they alter their effects. bom with essentially all the muscle fibers structure to resemble type II fibers. [Pick- A large number of physiological he/she will ever have. These muscle fi- les 83]. So theoretically, a person should changes are associated with getting older. bers increase in length as the child grows, be able to replace bulk, strength, and If we focus on physical deterioration we and increase in cross-sectional area as speed in atrophied muscle. How does see decreases in athletic performance, demands are placed on them. (The research bear this out? caused by losses in: cross-sectional area of a muscle is Maria Fiatarone showed that signifi- roughly proportional to its strength.) As a cant gains in muscle strength could be Muscle - Mass, strength, and perfor- typical, sedentary adult ages, we see a shown in older adults who exhibited “atro- mance speed; decrease in the actual number of fibers in phy of disuse”. Volunteers aged 86 to 96 Aerobic capacity (V02max); and a muscle, a decrease in the size of the participated in an 8-week exercise pro- Joint flexibility; individual fibers, and a decrease in total gram consisting of three sessions per muscle mass. The loss in number of week of progressive-resistance exercises. And changes in body composition evi- fibers seems to be selective - most of the Participant’s strength improved by an in- denced by: fibers that are lost are the fast-twitch, or credible average of 174%, muscle girth Decreased muscle mass; type II fibers - fibers associated with quick increased by 9% and speed improved by Decreased bone density; and bursts of strength and speed.[Costill 90A] 48%.[Fiatarone 89,90] Other researchers But, these changes are not universal. have also reported marked improvements Increased percent body fat Barrie Pickles states in Biological As- in muscular strength and mass.[Cisar 91] (see, e.g. [Cisar 91], [Crammer 87], [Pick- pects of Aging: (Other cases of improvements in speed at les 83], [Shepard 90], [Shephard 91]) which an activity is performed have also “If skeletal muscles are used been reported, but it is not clear whether Although all of the above changes frequently, they show remark- these improvements were due to true have been unequivocally associated with ably few structural and func- physiological changes, or whether they

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 30 were due to a “practice effect”.)[Pickles 83] V02max values than sedentary individu- crease the tensile strength of the liga- als of the same age.[Kavanagh 90], [Cisar ments holding the joints together, by in- Aerobic Capacity (V02max) 91], [Shephard 91]. creasing the collagen production - which will strengthen the joints and make them V02max is considered to be the best Joint Flexibility more resistant to injury. measure of cardiovascular capacity, and is referred to by many sports medicine To understand changes in joint flex- Changes in Body experts as the single most important indi- ibility that accompany aging, first we need Composition cation of fitness level.[Shangold 88] It is to look at the connective tissue that holds defined as oxygen consumption at the joints together and provides cushioning Three measurable structural com- point at which it fails to rise despite in- and lubrication for the joints. All connec- ponents of the human body are muscle, creasing exercise intensity. V02max is a tive tissue cells contain a variety of sub- bone and fat. [Shangold 88] In the general function of the maximum rate that oxygen stances, including: collagen, which pro- population, with increasing age, we see a can be carried to and be utilized by body vides structure and tensile strength; elas- decrease in muscle mass, a decrease in tissues. tin, which provides elastic flexibility; glyco- bone density, and an increase in adipose An athlete has a much higher V02max proteins that enable tissue to retain fluid tissue (fat.) Regular exercise can Fevent than a sedentary individual. Average and stay well-hydrated; and hyaluronic loss of muscle mass as a person ages, V02max in men declines with age almost acid, to provide lubrication. As a healthy, and can also increase muscle mass in 50%, from 48ml/kg-min at age 25 to 25.5ml/ active adult ages, dynamic collagen pro- older individuals. Let us now look at how kg-min at age 75.[Costill 90B] duction continues, in response to stresses exercise can affect bone density and per- Two longitudinal (long-term) studies placed on the body. However, production cent body fat as a person ages. demonstrate how regular cardiovascular of elastin, some glycoproteins, and hyalu- exercise as an individual ages can help ronic acid diminishes. Clinically, we see prevent age-associated decrease in the following: Bone Density V02max. Fred Kasch demonstrated this 1. The diameter of collagen fibers in a in a study taking place over a span of 23 Although people tend to view bone as given location of the body increases. an inert substance, it is actually a very years. Thirty athletes were in the study - This increases the tensile strength of fifteen who had worked out regularly and active tissue. Bone is constantly being the connective tissue, but reduces its remodeled, in response to stresses and vigorously over the entire period - and elasticity. fifteen “controls” who had stopped train- forces placed on it. Assuming an adequate ing for at least 18 years. The average age 2. The amount of elastin in the skin, diet and no hormonal abnormalities, the at the start of the study was about 47, and bronchial tree, and large arteries is stronger the force applied to a section of at the end about 70. V02max declined reduced; the elastic properties of these bone tissue, the stronger that section of 13% in the group that continued to exer- areas are therefore reduced. bone will become. Likewise, when less cise; in the de-trained group, the decline force is applied to a section of bone, ex- was 41%.[Kasch 90] A different study done 3. Lowered production of fluid-holding cess material is reabsorbed by the by David Costill showed a 0.5% decline in glycoproteins causes progressive tis- body,and the bone becomes lighter and V02max for competing track athletes (aged sue dehydration. more fragile. 50 to 82) over a period of 10 years, and a Bone mineral content starts to de- 4. Reduced hyaluronic acid secretion cline at about age 40 to 50 years, with a 14% decline in a similar group that stopped causes increased joint friction. competing over the same 10 year period. subsequent loss of about 10 percent per [Costill 90B] According to Costill: To make matters worse, elastin is not decade. It is possible that (aside from the produced at all in an older adult, so when bone loss associated with decreased es- The decline in aerobic endur- a person’s elastic connective tissue is trogen in women at menopause) ance seen throughout life ap- injured, the tissue is replaced with inelas- thesmaller amount of bone in the elderly pears to be affected more by tic, collagenous based connective tissue. could be entirely caused by an the intensity and volume of Cartilage (which provides cushioning and ageassociated decrease in regular exercise than by ag- some stability to the joints) also cannot be activity.[Pickles 83] Less activity leads to a ing per se. replaced. Therefore, as a person ages, reduction in the stresses and strains cartilage is worn away.[Pickles 83] All of placed on the bone, which triggers the All of the groups in both longitudinal the above changes can decrease flexibil- body’s reabsorption mechanisms. studies, even the active ones, did show at ity and make movement more difficult. It appears that both weight bearing least a slight decrease in V02max. Most Exercise, while it does not seem to alter and muscle action are important in the researchers attribute this to an age-related these physiological changes, can make maintenance of normal bone density. Stud- drop in maximum heart rate, or the fastest degenerative changes in the joint func- ies where weight bearing alone (in para- rate that an individual’s heart is physi- tionally less restrictive. Although damaged lyzed patients) or muscle movement alone ologically capable of pumping at effec- cartilage can not be replaced, regular (in astronauts) were attempted to reduce tively. Can enough intense exercise pre- non-stressful exercise has been shown bone loss, showed that either by them- vent a drop in maximum heart rate? At this to reduce degeneration in articular selves was not very effective. However, point the jury is out on this! At any rate, the canilage. [Pickles 83] True elasticity in the combining compression of a bone with slight drop in V02max noted in the com- joints does diminish, but functional flex- the simultaneous activity of its overlying peting track athletes in Costill’s study was ibility as demonstrated by range of motion muscles (i.e. weight bearing exercise) not functionally significant. can be maintained through a program of does produce increased density and cor- Cross-sectional studies (comparing stretching. [Cramer 87], [Cisar 91]. And tical thickening of the bone.[Pickles 83] different groups) also show that exercise increased joint activity, although it does Leslie Pruitt worked with does affect cardiovascular capacity. En- not cause production of elastin, will in- post-menopausal women to see how a durance athletes consistently have higher 31 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 weight training program would affect their els of this hormone; these changes in 88] There are serious problems bone mineral content. At the end of nine body composition can be reversed by re- associatedwith being in a perpetually months the bone mineral content in their placement doses of the hormone. hypoinsulemic (low insulin) state, and spines had increased, while it decreased [Rudman 90] Increased GH levels have with the excess of fat and protein that in a control group of women who did not also been associated with fewer accompany a low carbohydrate diet. How- exercise.[Pruitt 90] Other researchers by-products of tissue breakdown after in- ever, a much safer and effective altemative show similar results in both sexes.[Cisar tense exercise and decreased muscle is available. Supplementing otherwise 91], [Crammer 87], [Shephard 91] soreness.[Elam 89] Administration of unaltered diets with the amino acids growth hormone by injection three times L-arginine and L-omithine shortly before Body Fat a week to GH-deficient men over sixty was exercise and before bed (nommal times Numerous studies have shown that shown over a six month period to signifi- for increased GH secretion) showed sig- regular aerobic exercise can effectively cantly increase lean body mass, decrease nificant evidence of increased growth maintain or reduce percent body fat.[Cisar percent body fat, increase skin thickness, hormone secretion – and a more pro- 91], [Kasch 90], [Shangold 88], [Shephard and increase lumbar vertebral bone nounced increase in muscle mass and 91] In a 23 year longitudinal study dis- density.[Rudman 90] However, currently strength and decreased tissue break- cussed earlier in this paper, lead by Frank such administration, besides costing down by-products than exercising, pla- Kasch, the exercising group lost an aver- $14,000 a year [ Smith 90] is not available cebo- supplemented controls.[Elam 89] age of 7.5 pounds, compared with their to the general Extropian. In addition, there Combining exercise, a healthy diet, and individual weights taken at the start of the are potential health complications. Short- amino acid supplementation would show study. The nonexercising group, in con- term side-effects of existing all the benefits of an exercise program, trast, gained an average of 6.8 pounds. GH-replacement on GH-deficient adults with perhaps an increased effect on in- Percent body fat was not taken at the start include edema, arthralgia, hypertension, creased muscle mass and strength, de- of the study. But at age 70, the exercisers and carpal tunnel syndrome.[Lancet ed. creased adipose tissue, and decreased averaged 15.9% body fat and the 91] There is also an increased risk of muscle soreness as a result of enhanced nonexercisers averaged 25.7%.[Kasch cancer in acromegalic adults - adults with GH release in response to exercise. 90] abnormally high secretion of GH. (Unfor- Cross-sectional studies demon- tunately, cancer cells seem to respond to Other Age-Related Traits strate the same effect. For example, fe- growth factors as well as normal cells.) male distance runners in their 30’s aver- This has not been ruled out as a serious Besides purely athletic deterioration, age about 15% body fat, while a sedentary possible complication of long-term we see many serious health problems 30-year-old woman averages 27%. high-level GH therapy. associated with aging. Of these [Shangold 88] It has been suggested that the anti-aging age-related problems, several can be How effective is exercise as a mecha- effects of exercise could be due to in- reduced and controlled through a regular nism for losing body fat? Can a previously creased secretion of GH. Studies have program of exercise. Exercise alone has sedentary, obese individual lose excess shown a pronounced increase in levels of been shown to have protective effects body fat through increased activity? The human growth hormone immediately fol- against high blood pressure[Kasch 90], American College of Sports Medicine has lowing exercise - both in men in their 20’s, [Tanji 90], coronary heart concluded that to lose a significant amount who went from a pre-exercise average disease[Shephard 91], [Omish 90], of body fat (greater than 5%) through exer- level of 2.5 mcg/l to a post-exercise aver- stroke[Blair 89], and non-insulin depen- cise alone, an individual must exercise at age level of 12.5 mcg/l[Quirion 88] and in dent diabetes[Staten 91]. least 20 minutes per day, 3 days a week, men over 50 (pre-exercise .8 mcg/l; post As an individual ages, his/her pro- at a sufficient intensity and duration to exercise 9.3 mcg/l, and one hour later 3.7 prioceptive senses become less accu- bum 300kcal per session. Combining mcg/l). [Metivier 88] The documented ef- rate, causing losses in balance and coor- increased exercise with a modest reduc- fects of exercise alone, as compared to dination. Although the mechanisms for tion in calories can be much more effec- growth hormone administration alone, these losses are poorly understood at tive in reducing percent body fat. However, show similar effects on body composition this time [Pickles 83], research has shown reduction of calories accompanied by a and muscle strength. Exercise studies that decreases in balance and coordina- reduction in physical activity results in a have been able to demonstrate greater tion are reduced by regular exercise. higher percent body fat - most of the weight gains in less time – perhaps since there [Cramer 87], [Cisar 91] loss being due to loss of muscle tissue is not as much need to be concemed with People also associate general decreases and fluids.[Shangold 88] potential complications in moderating in mental functions and reaction time with “dosage” level! Also, so far studies on aging. Robert Dustman showed that sed- Human Growth Hormone growth hormone have not shown any ef- entary adults ages 55 to 70 who were put fect on functional flexibility, aerobic capac- on a “vigorous” exercise program showed and its Relationship to ity, or muscle performance speed. significant improvement in response time, Exercise and Aging There is some indication that diet can memory, and mental ¨“flexibility”, when It has been suggested that the affect physiological secretion of growth compared with a control group that was changes in body composition associated hormone in response to exercise. Men on not put on the exercise program.[Dustman with aging are due at least in part to a very high carbohydrate, 91] decreased secretion of human growth hyperinsulin-inducing diets (diets that And what about lifespan? Regular hormone (GH). Secretion of human growth cause high levels of insulin to be present exercise apparently can help us function hormone generally decreases with age int the blood) did not increase their GH at a “younger” level, but can it prolong life? after the third decade of life.[Rudman 90], levels after exercising as much as men on Research indicates that it can. In one [Lancet ed. 91] Decrease in lean body low-carbohydrate diets with associated study, involving 16,000 men, those who mass, and increase in adipose tissue low insulin blood levels, although GH lev- walked 9 or more miles a week had a have been correlated with decreased lev- els still increased significantly.[Quirion lower mortality rate than those who walked

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 32 less than 3 miles. [Dustman 91] Another exercise schedule more difficult. Barrie Costill D.L.: Muscular Strength and Aging. Sports study involved comparing mortality rates Pickles states in Biological Aspects of Medicine Digest 1990A; 12(8):4 of 13,000 men and women at different Aging: Costill D.L.: Endurance Performance and Aging. fitness levels. Fitness was categorized Sports Medicine Digest 1990B; 12(10): 7 according to V02max - and subjects were The key to preventing the nor- grouped into five categories. After adjust- mal age-related changes Crarnmer E., Mummert C.: Reach Out To Se- niors. Dance Exercise Today 1987; 5(10):5-8 ing for age differences, smoking, and cho- from affecting functional ca- lesterol, the subjects in the least-fit cat- pacity for ease of movement Dustman R.: Successful Aging. University of egory still had death rates 3.4 times higher during the entire lifespan is a California at Berkeley Wellness Letter 1991; for men, and 4.6 times higher for women gradually increasing adher- 7(11):1 ence to a program of physical than subjects in the most-fit category.[Blair Elam R.P., Hardin D.H., Sutton R.A.L., Hagen L.: 90] fitness. As a person ages, ¶ Effects of Arginine and Ornithine on Strength, physical fitness becomes Lean Body Mass, and Urinary Hydroxyproline It might seem from some of the infor- more and more important. in Adult Males. The Journal of Sports Medicine mation presented in this paper that we [Pickles 83] and Physical Fitness 1989; 29(1): 52-56 have found a virtual panacea to keep our As a person ages, physical fitness Fiatarone M.A.: Strength Improvements at any bodies from aging physically: muscle also becomes more and more difficult to Age. Running & FitNews, American Running strength, speed, and mass can be main- maintain - requiring greater deterrnination and Fitness Association 1989; 7(11): 1 tained; bone mass need not decrease; and willpower. But the rewards - enjoying Fiatarone M.A., Marks E.C.,Ryan N.D.: percent body fat can be kept at a youthfully a functionally more youthful, productive, High-intensity Strength Training in Nonagenar- low level; aerobic capacity can for the most and potentially longer life, are certainly ians: Effects on Skeletal Muscle. Journal of the part be maintained - and losses in flexibil- worth the extra effort! American Medical Association 1990; ity, coordination and balance can be mini- 263(22):3029-3034 mized. However, exercise alone cannot REFERENCES Kasch F.W., Boyer J.L., Van Camp, S.P., et al: stop some aspects of aging: As a person The Effect of Physical Activity and Inactivity on ages, his immune system deteriorates, Blair, S.: Exercise Can Enable You to Live Aerobic Power in Older Men (A Longitudinal making him more susceptible to disease Longer. Randal Wellness Newsletter 1990; Study). The Physician and Sportsmedicine and its associated periods of inactivity. 2(1):1 1990; 18(4):73-83 Injuries take longer to heal. Cartilage Blair, S.: Low Fitness May Mean Higher Risk of Kavanagh T., Shephard R.J.: Can Regular Sports breaks down and is not replaced. This, Stroke. The Physician and Sportsmedicine Participation Slow the Aging Process? Data on combined with the typical age-related 1989;17(9):37-4 Masters Athletes. The Physician and decrease in secretion of hyaluronic acid, Sportsmedicine 1990;18(6):94-104 Cisar C.J., Kravitz, L.: Tuming Back Time: Exer- causes progressive osteoarthritis in the cise and Aging. Idea Today 1991; 9(1):28-36 Lancet Editorial: Growth Hormone Therapy in joints, which also makes adherence to an Elderly People. The Lancet 1991; 3B7: 1131-1132 Metevier G., Gauthier R.: The Effects of Acute Physical Exercise on Blood Serum Cholesterol, Triglycerides, Human Growth Horrnone (HGH) and Free Thyroxine (T4) in Men over Fifty Years of Age. The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness 1988; 28(1):7-10 Omish D., Brown, S.E., Scherwitz, L.W. et al: Can Lifestyle changes reverse coronary heart disease? The Llfestyle Heart Trial. Lancet 1990; 336:129-133 Pickles B.: Biological Aspects of Aging. Physi- cal Therapy of the Geriatric Patient 1983; (edited by Osa Jackson):27-63 Pruitt L.: New Findings To Keep Bones Strong. Running & FitNews, Arnerican Running and Fitness Association 1990; 8(9):4-5 Quirion, A., Brisson, G., De Carufel, D., et al:lnfluence of Exercise and Dietary Modifica- tions on Plasma Human Growth Hormone, Insu- lin and FFA. The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness 1988; 28(4):352-353 Rudman, D., Feller, A.G., Nagraj, H., et al: Ef- fects of Human Growth Horrnone in Men Over 60 Years Old. The New Englend Journal of Medicine 1990; 323(1):1-6 Shangold, M.M., Mirkin, G.: Women and Exer- cise; Physiology and Sports Medicine. 1988 Philadelphia: FA Davis Co. Shepard, J.G., Pacelli, L.C.: Why Your Patients Shouldn’t Take Aging Sitting Down. The Physi- cian and Sportsmedicine 1990; 18(11):83-90 Shephard, R.J.: Exercise and Aging. Mayo Clinic 33 HealthEXTROPY Letter, special #9 Summersupplement, 1992 June 1991 The Anthropic Cosmological Principle by John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988. 706 pp.; £9.95 UK, $15.95 U.S (paper).

Reviewed by David Krieger

This book is almost too big to review. bring the universe into being; and third, This is perhaps the single most relevant that an ensemble of other universes is book to Extropian thought about the future. necessary for the existence of our uni- Barrow and Tipler present convincing and verse. The third, springing from the “Many- rigorous answers to questions like: What Worlds” interpretation proposed by tt tt t is the place of humanity in the universe? Wheeler, Everett, and Graham, is explored Are there other civilizations in our galaxy? in depth by Barrow and Tipler, who provide es es es

es es What is the ultimate fate of the cosmos? a mathematical expression of this inter- Must life and intelligence eventually come pretation and show a number of poten- to an end? tially testable consequences. er er er er er The anthropic cosmological principle Along the way, the authors explore the

aste of the title comes in three flavors, de- application of and the evidence for the scribed in detail in the book. The Weak WAP and SAP in the fields of biochemistry, Anthropic Principle (WAP) is the simple physics, astrophysics, cosmology, and of statement that the values of physical con- course quantum mechanics. I guarantee stants are not random, but restricted by that once you read and understand this the requirement that it must be possible book, you will know a great deal more for intelligent observers to arise, for we are about each of these sciences than you did here to make the observation. This ver- before. sion has some limited predictive value. Perhaps the most relevant variant of Knowing that carbon atoms are a neces- the anthropic principle for Extropians is opian int opian int opian int opian int opian int sary ingredient of our makeup, and being the Final Anthropic Principle: essentially, able to measure the rate of expansion of that life will never die out. More precisely, the universe, we can infer its size: the the amount of cogitation accomplished universe must be large enough to be old and the amount of information processed enough for the concentration of carbon to must increase without bound over time. be great enough for carbon-based life to This variation requires the universe and evolve – at least ten billion light years in certain elementary particles to have spe- f Extr f Extr f Extr f Extr f Extr extent. cific properties, providing an experimen- The WAP is almost a tautology; the tal test of the FAP. Strong Anthropic Principle goes much Barrow and Tipler demonstrate that farther: the FAP can be satisfied in either a closed or an open universe. If the universe is Strong Anthropic Principle open, that is, if its mass is not sufficient to (SAP): The universe must have cause it to collapse back to an inverse Big those properties which allow life Bang, the Second Law of Thermodynam- to develop within it at some stage ics decrees that it will suffer a Heat Death. ranshuman T in its history. The authors show that careful “energy This controversial statement provides husbandry” will permit intelligences to eviews o eviews o eviews o eviews o eviews o a reason for all we observe around us: the continue to operate, at slower and slower RR RR R universe is constrained to accomodate rates, for an infinite amount of time. Sat- our existence. Barrow and Tipler consider isfying the FAP in this way will require that three possible cases which could give intelligent life survive the disappearance rise to the SAP. They rightly dispense with of all baryonic matter due to proton decay; the first - that there exists one possible the surviving leptons must be capable of Universe “designed” with the goal of gen- making up some form of information-pro- erating and sustaining “observers” - as cessing machinery. Leptonic minds, if

The T immune to scientific proof or disproof, they are possible at all, will be cool, slow, noting that “Indeed it is a view either im- and vast, exchanging photons sparingly plicit or explicit in most theologies.” among individual beta particles light years The other two interpretations of the apart, over unimaginably long epochs. SAP are founded on two competing If, however, the universe is closed, interpretations of quantum mechanics: the time available to us is finite. Barrow second, that observers are necessary to and Tipler demonstrate that the intelli-

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 34 gences of that time still have the potential ment that a civilization capable of launch- God is required to keep making universes to do an infinite amount of thinking in that ing a single self-replicating Von Neumann until we (or some intelligent species) show finite amount of time, thanks to the in- probe would have such an artifact (and the up. So much for the omnipotence of God. creasing density of shear energy (not to be industrial base to build the next genera- If the definition of God includes omnipo- confused with “Sheer Energy,” a brand of tion of probes) in every solar system of the tence, then so much for God. (Arthur C. ladies’ pantyhose) in the universe during galaxy within 300 million years. (Barrow Clarke has proposed a similar applica- the era of collapse. From thermodynam- and Tipler have reckoned without the de- tion of Gödel’s Theorem to God’s omni- ics, they derive an integral expressing the velopment of nanotechnology, which science.) maximum amount of information that can would greatly strengthen, not weaken, their If the SAP is disproven (i.e., if it is be processed and show that, over our argument - by my calculations, nanotech physically possible to have a remaining interval of time and even with a reduces this time-frame to three million uni(multi)verse with no consciousness in finite amount of available energy, this in- years.) Also, the cost relative to wages of it), then the God Axiom is dealt a different tegral diverges - an infinite amount of raw materials is always dropping in a blow. God may exist, but cannot be the thought can occur. Good news for devo- society that is advancing technologically - kind of personal God who wants burnt tees of Boundless Expansion! for example, a project within the means of offerings and goes peeking in people’s The present state of scientific knowl- the United States government today will, bedrooms. If the SAP is disproven, then edge has neither confirmed nor denied in a few generations, be within the means humanity was not part of some Divine the Strong Anthropic Principle. In their of individuals. (Nanotech shortens this Plan; we arose by accident, in a universe survey of the sciences mentioned above, period considerably as well.) Thus, it where we could just as easily have never the authors point out a wide variety of would take only one nut, anywhere, to existed. Disproof will leave only the vari- suggestive evidence. For example, if the blanket the galaxy with self-replicating ous sects of Deists standing, while proof resonance level of the C12 nucleus were space probes. Until we discover evidence will knock the crutch out from all theolo- not almost exactly its actual level of 7.656 of such developments in our own solar gies. If the SAP is true, then there is no MeV, no carbon could arise, as almost all system, the authors argue, we must con- omnipotent God - yet: carbon has, through stellar nucleosyn- clude that We Are, in fact, Alone. Barrow and Tipler point out that the thesis. If it were slightly lower, the nucleo- Why should you run out and buy this infinity of consciousness is not optional. synthetic process would stop with beryl- book right now? First and foremost, it will In order to continue to process informa- lium; if slightly higher, all carbon would definitely expand your understanding of tion, whatever intelligence exists in the swiftly fuse further with helium to form the nuts-and-bolts mechanisms that remote future must continue to expand oxygen. make life as we know it, and human con- and to take control of greater and greater Furthermore, the criteria for a suit- sciousness, possible. The prospect of quantities of matter. The “intelligence able solvent for organic reactions are many immortality (to coin a phrase) has now community” of that time will expand until, and, in many cases, mutually contradic- been given a solid theoretical basis. The in the authors’ words (and with their em- tory. Barrow and Tipler show that only dilemma of the Heat Death or the Big phasis), water fits into the very narrow window left Crunch has always been dangled mock- by these many requirements. In fact: ingly in the faces of immortalists. Barrow At the instant the Omega Point and Tipler show that while such events is reached, life will have gained Water is actually one of the might lead to the end to life and con- control of all matter and forces strangest substances known sciousness, they need not. With 1032 (or not only in a single universe, to science. This may seem a 1098, depending on the flavor of proton but in all universes whose ex- rather odd thing to say about decay you prefer) years to work on the istence is logically possible; a substance as familiar but it is problem, if we can’t design a beta-par- life will have spread into all surely true. Its specific heat, ticles-only platform for consciousness, spatial regions in all universes its surface tension, and most then we don’t deserve to live for the rest of which could logically exist, and of its other physical proper- the Long Haul. will have stored an infinite ties have values anomalously The most important aspect of the amount of information, includ- higher or lower than those of book, to me, is the light it sheds on what ing all bits of knowledge which any other known material. The we may call the God Axiom. For our entire it is logically possible to know. fact that its solid phase is less history, discussion on this topic has been And this is the end. dense than its liquid phase (ice dominated by the ravings of madmen (the The academic and scientific creden- floats) is virtually a unique Revelation of St. John the Divine comes to property.... Indeed it is diffi- tials of both authors are impeccable. Bar- mind) and the prevarications of those in a row is an astronomer; Tipler, a physicist cult to conceive of a form of position to profit (medieval Popes, life which can spontaneously and mathematician. Science fiction fans “televangelists,” and similar snake-oil may be familiar with Tipler’s name from evolve from non-self-replicat- salesmen). Science (as opposed to indi- ing collections of atoms to the his time-travel paper “On Rotating Cylin- vidual scientists) has remained aloof from ders and the Possibility of Global Causal- complexity of living cells and the fray, because the God Axiom was yet is not based in an essential ity Violation” (Larry Niven later borrowed immune to disproof, and therefore an un- the title for a short story about a time way on water. scientific notion. machine such as Tipler proposed). Meanwhile Barrow and Tipler con- The SAP, however, is the first state- I found that this book simultaneously sider the Fermi question (Where is every- ment relevant to the God Theorem that expanded my mind and disabused me of body?) and reach Fermi’s perhaps un- has testable consequences. If the SAP long-held reassuring notions. The book popular conclusion, “If they existed, they holds up under experiment - say, to the is a gold mine for futurists and science would be here.” - that we are alone in the same extent as the Law of Conservation fiction authors, containing enough ideas galaxy, and perhaps in the universe. Bar- of Energy - then it ties the hands of the to fuel the average writer’s career for de- row and Tipler present a convincing argu- Deity: either God requires an audience, or 35 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 cades. Anyone seriously interested in our The Blind Watchmaker future, particularly the Long View, must read this book. by Richard Dawkins New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 332 pages. Richard Dawkins is my kind of writer. In an age when academics like to express Reviewed by Simon! D. Levy themselves in terms such as “not incon- sistent with,” Professor Dawkins starts his book about evolution with the state- ment that “our existence... is a mystery no in the genes that an organism passes on makes the a proto-eye just a bit more longer because it is solved. Darwin and to its offspring. If this change is beneficial sensitive to light — provide a major benefit Wallace solved it....” After those refresh- to the offspring — if, for example, the for survival? ingly audacious beginnings, Dawkins change produces a body better able to Dawkins’ answer to this question is goes on to present the clearest, most avoid predators or detect prey — then the twofold. First, he points out that even the convincing, and most entertaining expli- offspring will have a greater chance of tiniest mutation may be advantageous: “A cation of a scientific theory that I have read. surviving long enough to pass their mu- simple, rudimentary, half-cocked eye... is The fundamental question that pre- tant genes onto their own offspring. These better than none.” This part of the answer occupies Dawkins and shapes his argu- two forces, mutation and natural selec- is made more convincing by the second ment is the question of complexity. Choos- tion, have acted (and continue to act) to- part, which is the amount of time involved. ing the example of the human eye, he gether as a “blind watchmaker,” produc- If we think of the trip from bare skin to eye echoes the incredulity of the creationists, ing structures of fantastic complexity. in terms of a few generations, or a few against whom he convincingly argues, in In a chapter called “Accumulating dozen, it is extremely unlikely that the asking how such a fantastically intricate Small Change,” Dawkins shows how proper mutations would arise quickly structure could ever have evolved sponta- these little mutations could build up to enough to make the journey possible. As neously. In a nutshell, the answer is that something really big: Imagine a piece of Dawkins points out, however, the time the difficulty we have in understanding graph paper on which all possible genetic spans involved in evolution are on the evolution is the result of an incorrect meta- configurations are represented. Similar order of several hundred million years. If phor. According to this metaphor, which configurations will be closer together in we acknowledge the enormous number Dawkins calls the “Boeing 747 the graph; for example, the genetic con- of generations that must have elapsed macromutation,” evolution proceeds like figuration of a monkey is very close to that between successive small mutations, the a hurricane blowing through a junkyard: of a human being, so these two primates development of complex structures such What are the chances that, among the will be close together on the graph. Pri- as the eye becomes far more comprehen- inconceivably huge number of ways the mates have a very different genetic makeup sible. junk could get blown around, the final from viruses, so primates and viruses will The second attack on gradualism arrangement of the junk will be a fully be far apart on the graph. Large changes comes from the so-called punctuationist assembled and operating jetliner? Or, to in genetic makeup — for example, the school of evolutionary theory, whose most use the argument of eighteenth-century change from a bare patch of skin to an eye famous exponent is Harvard paleontolo- theologian William Paley, if we stumble — represent long-distance movements gist Steven Jay Gould. Based on their across a rock in a field, we are perfectly across the graph. * observation of fossils dated by radioactive satisfied to believe that the rock has al- A major point of The Blind Watch- testing, the punctuationists have argued ways been there, without wondering about maker is that such movements neces- that evolution does not seem to take place where it came from or who made it. If, sarily require movement through every gradually. For example, the size of the however, we were to stumble across a intervening stage. You can’t make large brain of Homo sapiens represents a tri- watch in a field, the same answer would jumps from one stage to another, any pling of the size of the brain of this species’ hardly suffice. Instead, we would be forced more than a hurricane can assemble an ancestors, in a period of three million to attribute the existence of the watch to a airliner out of a pile of scrap. So the first years. If this size increase were gradual, watchmaker. In much the same way, movement on the path from bare skin to i.e., spread out evenly over the years, the argued Paley, the existence of fantasti- eye probably involved some sort of small difference in brain sizes between succes- cally complex structures in Nature must mutation, which made a patch of skin sive generations would be far too small to force us to admit the existence of a Divine more light-sensitive than the skin on the provide any advantage. Furthermore, the Watchmaker, who is responsible for the rest of the animal. This increased sensi- fossil record fails to reveal this kind of creation of us and of all living things. tivity gave the mutant animal a competitive gradual change. The answer, of course, is that such a edge, so that it was able to pass the In his counter-attack on the macromutation from functionless disor- sensitive-patch genes onto its descen- punctuationists, Dawkins points out that der to functional order is effectively impos- dants, one of which mutated further in the this view of gradualism is essentially a sible. Watches don’t spring full-blown advantageous “eye” direction, and so forth. straw-man. No sensible biologist, least from rocky fields, and 747’s don’t get put Now, this gradualist view of evolution of all Dawkins, would take such a position. together by a hurricane from scraps in a is not without its detractors. First are those In fact, Dawkins seems particularly angry junkyard. Clearly, then, evolution could like C.E. Raven who argue, somewhat at the media attention that Gould and his not have worked this way. A complete persuasively, that individual small steps ilk have been given because of the errone- human eye couldn’t spontaneously evolve on the evolutionary graph are of dubious ous belief that they were challenging a from a bare patch of skin. Instead, as value to the organism. It is clear that an widely held view. According to Dawkins, Dawkins shows, evolution is understand- organism with eyes has a big advantage, the punctuationists, like all reasonable able in terms of its gradualness. A ran- ceteris paribus, over its blind counter- evolutionists, do embrace some form of dom mutation, caused for example by parts. But how could some very small gradualism; the alternative is to believe in cosmic rays, may lead to a small change change — for example, a mutation that the Boeing 747 macromutation. Instead,

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 36 the significant way in which punctuationists differ from people like Economist Against The Apocalyptics: Dawkins is that the punctuationists be- The wisdom of Julian Simon: Three books. lieve in long periods with no evolution, interrupted by brief periods of accelerated Reviewed by Max More evolution. Dawkins, on the other hand, seems either to stick to the steady-rate-of- evolution view, or to consider The Ultimate Resource (Martin Robertson, Oxford, 1981). 415 pages. ISBN: 0-85520- punctuationism a “minor ripple” in Dar- 563-6 winian theory. Usually, I have no patience The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000 (Basil Blackwell, Oxford 1984). for this sort of “we’re all saying the same Edited by Julian Simon and Herman Kahn. 585 pages. ISBN: 0-631-13467-0 thing” approach, because it is only through Population Matters: People, Resources, Environment and Immigration (Transaction controversy and disagreement that sci- Publishers, 1990). 577 pages. ISSN: 0-88738-300-9 ence proceeds. Nevertheless, Dawkins makes his point convincingly. Not having Dualistic thinking is always tempting. in TUR and the other books are analyzed read Gould, I am in not in a position to I’m tempted to portray Julian Simon as the in full professional detail in Simon’s The evaluate Dawkins’ criticisms further, but it heroic rebel fighting Paul Ehrlich’s Evil Economics of Population Growth (1977). would not surprise me in the least if what Empire of environmental crisis-mongers, TUR explains the theory of scarce re- he has said is true, given the way that people-haters, and coercion enthusiasts. sources, looks at technological and eco- television and the popular press report on Forcing viewpoints into diametrically op- nomic forecasts, questions the finiteness science. posing positions usually distorts the situ- of resources, and delves into issues of All in all, I found The Blind Watch- ation and obscures information. Yet, from food supply and famine, availability of land, maker a thoroughly enjoyable and worth- an Extropian perspective, so bad are the energy supplies, pollution, and the nega- while book. It gave me a sense of why facts and values of Ehrlich and those like tive and positive effects of population Charles Darwin, clearly a hero in Dawkins’ him, and so perceptive and agreeable the growth. eyes, is so revered by thinking people writings of Simon, that dualistic treatment The Resourceful Earth (TRE) is not everywhere, including a past Alcor presi- might be close to the truth. written by Simon (apart from one of the dent who adopted the nineteenth-century Julian Simon is a professor at the essays), but his editorial light shines genius’ surname as his own. Dawkins University of Maryland, College of Busi- through (nicely complemented by co-edi- himself pulls no punches in demolishing ness and Management, and a researcher tor Herman Kahn). TRE is an unparalleled the creationists, showing even their most for the Hudson Institute. He is one of the source of information on environmental plausible arguments to be full of holes; valiant few standing against the tide of and resource issues by a collection of his book is therefore indispensable for irrationalist, apocalyptic environmental- experts. D. Gale Johnson examines world Extropians trying to explain the origin of life ism and is deeply unpopular with the dark food trends and argues that “the pros- (and hence the material nature of con- forces of anti-growth, pro-statist environ- pects for the long run are in the direction sciousness) to bewildered loved ones mentalists. Recently, in addition to besting of gradual declines in the real prices of the and students. his opponents intellectually, he backed primary sources of calories for poor To be fair, there were one or two his principles with money. Simon chal- people.” The essay on global forests, fol- glaring errors that were surprising, given lenged Ehrlich to make a bet on the real lowed by the discussion of the data (or the generally high quality of scholarship cost of raw materials ten years in the lack of it) regarding species loss by Simon and writing of this Oxford professor. For future. According to Ehrlich’s view, these and Wildavsky, shows just how far from example, candelabra is plural, not singu- prices should rise greatly, due to their the evidence popular beliefs about envi- lar; this kind of mistake makes one won- purportedly increasing scarcity. On this ronmental issues stray. (More on this ex- der about the worth of editors nowadays. view, resources are a fixed stock, and they ample below.) Other authors sharply probe But such peccadilloes are more than off- will be gradually consumed at an acceler- the available information on supplies of set by an engaging style that is rare in ating rate as population grows. Simon’s agricultural land, soil erosion, water avail- science writing. Dawkins has an ear for economistic viewpoint holds that re- ability, global climatic trends, trends in language; he tells us how animals “make sources are effectively unlimited, and that non-mineral resources as well as in oil their living” and that “however many ways substitution and technological innovation and petroleum, nuclear power, solar en- there may be of being alive, it is certain that (boosted by population growth) will hold ergy, coal, environmental quality, air and there are vastly more ways of being dead.” down the prices of resources. Recently, water quality, nutrition and health trends, This charming way of writing, combined the ten years expired. Simon won the bet and cancer rates. The overall message of with Dawkins’ obvious passion for the and Ehrlich paid up. Did this prevent Ehrlich the collection is certainly not complacent, issues in his field, make for truly pleasur- from continuing to make more incredible but does show that most trends are in the able reading. In short, I recommend The and unfounded claims? Of course not. But right direction, and solutions to current Blind Watchmaker without reservation. neither would he renew the bet. problems lie in market mechanisms, not centralized coercion. Format of the Books Population Matters, the most recent * Dawkins even wrote a program to illustrate book, is a collection of essays written by this “evolutionary space” idea with little stick- Each of the three books reviewed Julian Simon. These 58 essays are a figure creatures that he calls “biomorphs.” We here differ in format. The earliest, The concentrated source of invaluable infor- had a copy of the program (Apple Macintosh Ultimate Resource (TUR), is a book-length mation for enlightening yourself and for version) lying around at the lab where I work, treatment of resource trends and popula- gathering intellectual ammunition. The and I had a good time running a few of Dawkins’ attractive simulations, though I couldn’t get the tion effects, written for the intelligent lay- collection consists of eight parts: General thing to work on System 6.05 or higher. In any person, but solidly based in economic Overview; Natural Resources; Population event, it’s a bargain at $10.95, and you can have theory. Some of the same issues treated Growth; Population Policies, Programs, fun while supporting a worthy cause. 37 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 and Beliefs; Immigration; Failed Prophe- Second, it calculates the future use rate of sumption that “a certain quantity of a given cies and the Doomsaying Establishment; the resource on the basis of the current mineral ‘exists’ in the earth, and that one Progress, World Views, and Modes of rate and, finally, calculates the numbers of can, at least in principle, answer the ques- Thought; Publication, Funding, and the years, given the prior calculations, before tion: How much (say) copper is there?” Population Establishment. the resource is exhausted. Such techno- Intuitively plausible as it may be to the Far more than the other books, PM logical estimates generally suggest that economically unsophisticated, this as- reveals in horrifying detail the power and resources will become increasingly sumption is replete with difficulties. At- unity of the doomsday establishment view. scarce and will eventually run out entirely. tempting to define the available quantity of Simon relates his difficulties in getting If this were so, we should expect resource a resource, such as copper, is hopeless published, and shows how the various prices to climb. Yet, as Simon shows: in principle, let alone in practice. The anti-growth environmentalist groups are grades of a resource differ dramatically, interlocked. He also explains how funding Considerable data showing varying in difficulty of extraction and imperatives drive researchers into exag- trends in raw-material prices amounts at low concentrations (such as geration and distortion. Funds are more are available, as seen in the metals in sea water) vastly exceed the accessible to those claiming their work to Appendix to this book. The amounts normally counted as ‘proven be vital to the future of all life! This effect overwhelming impression reserves’. New sources may arise out- demonstrates the ineffectiveness of feed- given by these figures is that side the system considered by the fore- back mechanisms linking researchers’ costs for extractive materials caster, such as resources from the seas, claims and their costs and benefits. (In have fallen over the course of from other planets, or by processes such Extropy #8, Robin Hanson proposed a recorded price history. The as nuclear breeding of fuel or nucleosyn- system of Idea Futures to improve incen- economist’s first-approxima- thesis of elements. Trying to define total tives to make reasonable claims.) tion forecast is that these availability of a resource is a vain en- trends toward less scarcity deavor. Scarcity should continue into the fore- seeable future unless there is Consider the definition of the Having given an idea of the format of some reason to believe that potential supply of oil that is each book, rather than go through them conditions have changed, that implicitly or explicitly used by chapter by chapter, I will give an idea of is, unless there is something many: the amount that would Simon’s approach throughout the books. wrong with the data as a basis be recorded if someone con- First, in any discussion of resource is- for extrapolation. [TUR: 21] ducted an exhaustive survey sues, the concept of scarcity must be of all the earth’s contents. This clarified and its consequences drawn out. Since technological progress is ac- supply is apparently fixed. But Increasing scarcity of a resource will (in a celerating, not slowing, projecting future such a definition is thoroughly free market) be reflected in a persistently price trends on the basis of the past is non-operational, because rising price. A related important measure likely to understate the decreasing scar- such a survey is impossible of scarcity is the relationship between city of resources. We should also note that even in principle. The opera- price and income. If the price of aluminum current prices contain information about tional supply is that which is remains constant while our income rises, future scarcity: If speculators have reason known today, or that which we then we will feel that aluminum is becom- to believe a resource will become more may forecast as being known ing less scarce. costly to acquire in the future, they will buy in the future, or that which we This method of measuring scarcity is it now to hoard and resell in the future. This estimate will be sought and the economic measure, and differs im- action will raise the current price of the found under varying condi- portantly from technological tests of scar- resource. tions of demand. These latter city. The economist’s approach relies on Two Types of Forecast two quantities are decidedly price mechanisms and on long-run cost not fixed but rather variable, trends. The technological method begins Technological forecasts, in contrast and they are the ones relevant by estimating the currently known quantity with economic forecasts, suffer from sev- for policy decisions. [TUR: 31- of the resource on or in our current planet. eral shortcomings. They rely on the as-

Table 1: Number of Years of Consumption Potential for Various Elements

Known reserves/annual U.S. Geological Survey's estimates of Amount estimated in earth's crust/ consumption “ultimate recoverable resources” (=0.1% of materials annual consumption in top kilometer of earth’s crust/Annual Consumption

Copper 45 340 242,000,000 Iron 117 2,657 1,815,000,000 Phosphorus 481 1,601 870,000,000 Molybdenum 65 630 422,000,000 Lead 10 162 85,000,000 Zinc 21 618 409,000,000 Sulfur 30 6,897 na Uranium 50 8,455 1,855,000,000 Aluminum 23 68,066 38,500,000,000 Gold 9 102 57,000,000

SOURCE: William D. Nordhaus, Resources as a constrain upon growth. American Economic Review 64 (1974), p.23.

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 38 32] particulates have all been falling, and involved, and that while population growth unleaded gas has contributed to reduced can be expected to have powerfully posi- Simon identifies five major difficul- lead levels. For example, in New York by tive long-run effects, it does bring some ties in technological forecasting. Table 1 1975, soot levels in Brooklyn fell to one- short-run costs. (previous page) illustrates the growth in sixth of their 1945 level, and in Manhattan Discussions in The Ultimate Re- known reserves between 1950 and 1970, the level declined by two-thirds. Chicago source and Population Matters (and in reinforcing the economist’s view that use also showed dramatic improvements, and great detail in his technical work, The of the known-reserve idea is misleading the air in other cities became cleaner, if not Economics of Population Growth) dem- and worthless. by as much. onstrate that population growth tends to Second, the supply of minerals tends Some choice descriptions of pollu- accelerate technological progress. One to be highly price elastic. That is, a small tion in the past, making our own environ- reason for this is an increased rate of increase in price greatly increases the ment appear pristine and pure by com- innovation. The more people there are, potential resources that can be profitably parison can found in both TUR and TRE. the more minds are working on finding to extracted. Many technological forecasts In the streets of London in 1890, red- solutions, whether grand or mundane: are based on current prices and current jacketed boys would run around trying to “...the data show clearly that the bigger the technology and so inevitably show rapid collect the horse manure than threatened population of a country, the greater the exhaustion of resources. Third, techno- to drown the city. Passing wagons would number of scientists and the larger the logical forecasts that attempt to go beyond spray passersby with the filth and it accu- amount of scientific knowledge produced; ‘known reserves’ must make highly un- mulated along the sides of the road where more specifically, scientific output is pro- certain guesses about future discoveries it would be thrown. In addition, the noise portional to population size, in countries at of new reserves and about technological of the incessant horse-drawn traffic was the same level of income.” [TUR: 202] innovations. The economic approach only deafening. Many examples of terrible pol- In addition, faster population growth needs to assume that the long-run cost lution in the past are available; the point is speeds up the growth rate of industries, trend will continue. Fourth, the mineral that we cannot realistically estimate our and faster-growing industries have faster resources of the Earth have not been pollution situation without comparing it to rates of growth of productivity and techno- thoroughly inventoried because it has never the past. Another point well made by logical practice. Simon even provides been worth anyone’s effort to do this. Fi- Simon and undoubtedly obvious to most graphs refuting the contention that popu- nally, technological forecasts depend on readers of this journal is that zero pollution lation growth and scientific discoveries how imaginative a forecaster is in thinking is not a viable option. Pollution is a by- were not correlated in ancient Greece and up future extraction methods. product of desirable production, reduc- Rome. Rising population not only in- tion of pollution is costly in terms of other creases the rate of innovation, it spurs the Pollution desired goods and services forgone (the adoption of existing technology. New The popular view is that pollution is ‘opportunity cost’). methods, in agriculture for example, may getting worse in just about all respects. be initially more laborious (though more The truth is very different. With some ex- Population and Technology efficient and productive later) and so will ceptions pollution is becoming less of a Population projections have been only be adopted under pressure of popu- problem. Some previous pollution blamed made for decades and have almost invari- lation growth. on human activity is really the result of ably turned out to be wide of the mark. For Economies of scale provide another natural forces, such as the falling oxygen example: “As of 1969, the U.S. Depart- reason for the acceleration of technologi- content of the Baltic Sea. ment of State Bulletin forecast 7.5 billion cal progress in a growing population. A Despite propaganda about the dead people for the year 2000, echoing the bigger population implies a bigger mar- Great Lakes, since the 1970s their quality original UN source. By 1974, the figure ket; Greater division of labor occurs and has been improving. The fish catch in quoted in the media was 7.2 billion. By therefore more specialized skills develop; Lake Erie, one of the two most polluted of 1976, Raphael Salas, the executive direc- A wider variety of services is offered; A the Lakes, increased from its low in the tor of the UN Fund for Population Activities larger population means larger produc- ’60s, with 10 million pounds of fish caught (UNFPA) was forecasting “nearly 7 bil- tion runs, and this means more learning there in 1977. “Lake Superior’s purity lion.” Soon Salas was all the way down to by doing; Better infrastructure becomes seems to have been increasing rather “at least 5.8 billion.” And as early as 1977, affordable. steadily or holding constant, at least in Lester Brown and the Worldwatch Insti- Simon demonstrates other surpris- terms of the dissolved solids for which we tute (which the UN is supporting) dropped ing and perhaps counter-intuitive results have data.” [Baumol & Oates, TRE: 444] it down again, forecasting 5.4 billion people of population growth. I will only briefly Water quality in other areas is heading in for the year 2000.” [TUR: 169-70] These mention the effects of population growth the right direction. The oxygen content of and other examples should make us wary on the availability of land for recreation. In the Thames river in England has risen of making drastic policy decisions on the the U.S.A., “Land dedicated to wildlife ar- since the 1960s, and the Hudson river is basis of forecasts. eas, national and state parks and forests, cleaner now than it has been in decades. Simon's position has sometimes in- and recreational uses has risen from 8 “By almost every measure available – correctly been characterized by critics as million acres in 1920 to 61 million acres amount of money spent, number of sew- holding that population growth is always in 1974. And the President's Commission age treatment plants constructed, num- and in every way a good thing, but his in 1972 foresaw a further rise of about 37 ber of crabs returning, number and size of position is more complicated. The reader percent from 1964 to 1980 in ‘pure recre- fish, visibility of sewage, number of people should consult Simon's books to get an ation land outside towns.’” [TUR: 235] swimming – the 155-mile long main stem accurate idea of his position. For present Long-term population growth has in- of the Hudson River between New York purposes my understanding of Simon's creased income and transportation sys- City and Troy is improving.” [TRE: 449] position is that he claims that whether tems, making recreational land more ac- Air is improving: Levels of carbon population growth has positive effects cessible. monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and suspended depends in part on the values of the people

39 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Species Loss greater than at present, and the illegal Mexicans, more than 80 percent “20% of all species will be extinct by which has been published in are male, half are single (most of the the year 2000.” “One hundred species are newspapers to be read by tens married men leave their wives and chil- becoming extinct every day.” You have or hundreds of millions of dren in Mexico), and most are youthful – probably seen these figures, or similar, people and understood as a less than 20 percent of the workers are bandied about in the press and stated scientific statement. over 35, and they average perhaps 27. with conviction by numerous commenta- Among the Vietnam refugees, only 12 tors. (Even the Nature Conservancy, of The authors go on to further under- percent are 45 or over, compared to 32 which I was a member, and which pro- mine the credibility of the Global 2000 percent for the 45-and-over group in the tected land mostly by the proper method of statements by analyzing that report's use U.S. population as a whole.” [TUR: 273] buying it, used these figures in a recent of deforestation data. The essay con- I would like to have seen a statement fund-raising effort.) Julian Simon and cludes with a discussion placing the risks from Simon to the effect that immigration Aaron Wildavsky's essay, “On Species from species loss into proportion. As the laws are unjust and should be abolished Loss, the Absence of Data, and Risks to authors note, they do not intend to suggest entirely. However, despite Simon's Humanity,” reinforced by Roger Sedjo and that we should ignore possible dangers strongly free market approach, he writes Marion Clawson's “Global Forests” (both to species. as an economist and so we cannot expect in The Resourceful Earth) show these such directly political pronouncements. Individual species, and per- He does state one of two ideological po- figures for the irresponsible fabrications haps all species taken to- they are. sitions as “The freedom to move across gether, constitute a valuable national boundaries is a human right that The falsely alarming statistics come endowment, and we should from the Global 2000 report (to which The ought to be recognized,” [PM: 282] but guard their survival just as we goes on to cite economic data in favor of Resourceful Earth is an effective rejoin- guard our other physical and der). Lovejoy's figures in Global 2000 are this view rather than explicitly agreeing social assets. But we should with it as a political view. based on Myer's The Sinking Ark (1979) strive for a sensible view of “which was written under the auspices of this set of assets in order to You know that Simon must be doing a committee of which Lovejoy was one of make the best possible judge- a good job of attacking apocalyptic envi- three members, and whose prologue is a ments about how much time ronmentalism when you see how upset motto of the World Wildlife Fund, on whose and money, and human wel- they become at the mention of his name. staff Lovejoy serves.” [TRE: 173] Myers fare, should be spent in guard- I found it hilarious and witty for Simon to estimates an extinction rate of one spe- ing them in a world in which include on the back cover of Population cies every 4 years between 1600 and this valuable activity must Matters some comments from his critics, 1900. Myers then estimates an extinction compete with other valuable in addition to the usual favorable com- rate of one species per year from 1900 to activities, including the guard- ments (including one from F.A. Hayek): the present (then 1980), but gives no source ing of other valuable assets “The man’s a terrorist” – Mark Plotkin, for this estimate). To continue, in Simon and of human life. World Wildlife Fund, Cox Newspapers. and Wildavsky's words: “Schizophrenic nonsense and baloney...sabotaging the human race.” – Some scientists have (in Immigration Myers' words) “hazarded a Dr. L.E. Marshall, Estherville, Iowa. How guess” that the extinction rate The environmentalists not only try to nice to see the balanced thought and “could now have reached” 100 restrain technology and growth, they also intellectual care of these critics! species per year. That is, the oppose immigration. The free flow of per- The works reviewed here should be estimate is simply conjecture sons is increasingly important to the dy- on the shelves and reading lists of all who and is not even a point esti- namism of economies. If the environmen- think of themselves as Extropians. They mate but rather an upper talists, allied with traditional anti-immi- make fascinating and enlightening read- bound... Even this guessed gration groups, have their way, yet another ing, and will serve as invaluable sources upper limit is then increased chain will have been wrapped around of intellectual ammunition for years to and used by Myer's, and then economic growth, not to mention around come. Future works by Julian Simon will by Lovejoy, as the basis for the lives of those trying to better their be reviewed in Extropy or ExI's new news- the “projections” quoted condition. letter Exponent. above. In Global 2000 the lan- Simon provides helpful data to show guage has become that eco- the overall beneficial impact of immigrants nomic developments “are on the economy. After putting the likely Select Bibliography likely to lead” to the extinction numbers of illegal immigrants into per- of between 14 and 20 percent spective, Simon refutes the contention Issues in the Economics of Advertising of all species before the year that immigrants abuse welfare and gov- (1971) 2000 (Global 2000, vol.II, p.328), ernment services. Small proportions of The Effects of Income on Fertility (1974) which calculates to about illegal immigrants use government ser- The Economics of Population Growth 40,000 species lost per year. vices, being afraid of getting caught if they (1977) Observe that an upper limit apply for welfare. Legal immigrant fami- The Ultimate Resource (1981) for the present that is pure lies make use of welfare about as much Theory of Population and Economic guesswork, and that is 100 as do citizens, and much less if services Growth (1986) times the observed rate in the for the elderly are included. Effort, Opportunity, and Growth (1987) recent past, has become the One reason why immigrants are a net The Economic Consequences of Immi- basis of a forecast for the fu- boon to the economy is their demographic gration (1989) ture which is 40,000 times composition: “On average, it is the young, Essays on the Effects of Population Growth strong, and single who make the move. Of in LDC’s (forthcoming) 40 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 Edited Books Research in Population Economics: Vol. I nomics as physics” within in his other- Bionomics: The Inevitability of Capitalism wise organic view4) Smith did write and By Michael Rothschild, New York: Henry Holt and Company, demonstrate that economics had changed as a result of environmental influences. Inc., 1990. 423 pp; $24.95 (hardback). ISBN: 0-8050-1068- Smith states that these changes took 8. place in a self-ordering manner. (An im- portant test for “organic” theories.) The Reviewed by Harry Schapiro four “economies” that human life moved through were “Hunters, Shepherds, Agri- cultural and Commerce.”5 In this regard, Smith’s views can be seen as an eco- This review is in both a short and a This is similar to the Extropian principles nomic version of punctuated equilibrium6 long form. If you want to read the short of Boundless Expansion and Dynamic which Rothschild describes in chapter 5. form, stop at the end of this paragraph. Optimism. The learning process healthy Why Smith did not believe that economies Bionomics, written by Michael Rothschild businesses go though can be likened to would further change is unknown. What is is philosophically compatible with many the Extropian principle of Self-Transfor- clear is that he believed that economies Extropian views. In simple terms, bio- mation. In bionomics, it is not life forms had changed. In this regard, Smith is nomic theory combines Austrian econom- that are self-evolving but businesses. As likened to Cuvier or Lamarck in the limited ics with classical and neo-classical Dar- businesses grow and learn and trans- view or scope of his theory. winian biology to explain the current state form themselves, bionomics predicts that of world economics (circa 1990). “Bio- those businesses that focus on a niche in Chapter 6 — Brains and Tools nomics argues that what we call capital- the economic system, thus avoiding di- ism (or free-market economics) is not an rect competition, will thrive. This is not Thoughout his book, Rothschild ism at all but a naturally occurring phe- unlike species in biology evolving so they makes a insightful point in talking about nomenon.”1 Rothschild was a business can live near each other without competi- the power of DNA. He views it as the consultant and the book is crafted to ap- tion for the same resources. biological “library”, relating it by analogy to peal to an educated but non-extropian My own background is in general stud- the written language used by humans. He readership. For its clever synthesis of ies, Liberal Arts, Management, and Writ- also presents the orthodox Darwinian view biological and economic theory and its ing. Since I am not trained in economics that DNA evolved spontaneously. At the promotion of spontaneous order, I highly I will not analyze each page of Bionomics. end of chapter 6 he goes further in stating: recommend it. Extropians should con- However, I would like to show how sider promoting this book as it promotes Rothschild’s bionomics diverges from Our lineage is unique because a weakened set of extropian meme’s. Extropian philosophy. I will example, our anatomy allowed our an- Extropian principles of Boundless Ex- briefly, his chapters on: Theories of cestors to supplement their pansion, Dynamic Optimism, Self-Trans- Change, Brains and Tools, Surplus and genetic evolution with tech- formation, and Spontaneous Order fit well Genes, and Profits and Technology. nological evolution. Through into bionomic theory. Rothschild brings creativity and innovation - be- out these and other views by discussing haviors made possible by the Chapter 2 — Theories of Change the following eight topics in the book: vastly enlarged brains of a strain of juvenilized apes - our * Evolution and Innovation Rothschild relates how Hegel and ancestors were able to satisfy * Organism and Organization the dialectic serves as a basis for Marx’s their most fundamental eco- economic theory. This is an orthodox view; * Energy and Value nomic needs. The brains of Rothschild compares the dialectic to the our forebears became a living * Learning and Progress theories of biological catastrophe” like bridge connecting the ancient * Struggle and Competition Cuvier’s. process of genetic evolution Rothschild develops a position that with the brand-new process of * Feedback loops and Free Markets Marx was the first to propose to the effect technological evolution. Up to * Parasitism and Exploitation that economic systems change through- this point in earth’s history, out history in the same manner that Cuvier * Mutualism and Cooperation the only form of living infor- (Catastrophe) and Lamarck (inherited mation was nature’s - the In as simple terms as possible, bionom- variation) first proposed that biological mechanism of DNA. But, once ics holds that replicating information systems also change/evolve. the Habilis brain, itself a prod- makes economies dynamic, that organi- Rothschild holds that Smith, Ricardo uct of DNA, began to inno- zations making better marginal use of this and Malthus viewed economics with a vate, it launched an entirely information will thrive, and that because “Mechanical/Newtonian” world view. Al- new realm of living informa- new information is always being created, though not stated by Rothschild, he thus tion.” (Emphasis mine.) Malthusian/doomsday economics will views Marx as having a more organic never produce predictive or useful theo- world view. While Newtonian-minded It is at this point, if not sooner, that ries. Ricardo may have been a mechanist, and Rothschild could have introduced the con- A Malthusian-orientated economist while this seems to be true of Malthus, I cept of the meme. He did not feel the need might hold that a healthy business will don’t see such a view as being held by for its inclusion. This raises several ques- reach diminishing returns at high levels Smith. True, Smith did hold that econom- tions: of productivity. Bionomic theory holds that ics reached its maturity in the age of Com- 1) Does meme theory (memetics) have a healthy business will learn more about merce and he was not fully laissez-faire2 any effect upon the theory of bionomics? production, will innovate, and will gain but rather partly interventionist3 in view 2) Does memetics affect bionomics? In greater economies of scale and scope. (perhaps revealing a component of “eco- what way?

41 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 3) Was Rothschild aware of memetics? survival vehicle’s food. Exploring how War Saint Paul area butcher (Grandfather In the article written by Rothschild in Lib- genes compete within a species, Dawkins Hooley) mutated into specific blueprints, erty, he talks about his lack of knowledge finds that marginal changes often work training manuals and classroom exer- of the Austrian school of economics and best. Marginal changes provide “niche” cises for the Cub Food franchisees. then delineates how bionomics interacts advantage combined with reasonable en- Rothschild details how information with Austrian economics. It is very likely ergy costs. Natural selection within a dy- expressed (phenotypically) in business that Rothschild likewise never heard of namic environment favors the fittest sur- strategy and practice is the basis for Cub meme theory. However, the 8th footnote in vival vehicles. Fitness can be defined as Food’s success. Grocery stores are a his book is: “See Dawkins, Richard, The possessing marginal survival advantage. genus. The species include “24-hour Selfish Gene (Oxford: Oxford University Winning genes have the best evolutionar- convenience,” “neighborhood supermar- Press, 1976).” It is in this book, Chapter ily stable strategy (ESS). ket,” and “mom & pop.” Hooley’s Butcher 11: Memes the New Replicators, that the The previous paragraph is para- Shop, the antecedent species of Cub concept of memetics was first proposed. phrased from Richard Dawkins books, Food, evolved into a tiny grocery store. It Since Rothschild is so focused upon en- The Selfish Gene and The Extended Phe- continued evolving, faster than competing coded information, and since memes are notype. In chapters 12 & 13 of Bionomics locals of the same species. Hooley family nothing if not examples of physically en- Rothschild covers similar ground. Draw- groceries evolved steadily into new spe- coded, stored, and transmitted informa- ing upon his business consulting back- cies. The memes of Grandfather Hooley tion, surely bionomics and meme theory ground, Rothschild is able to present the (minimize costs, maximize revenues, in- must integrate. previously mentioned material, in a highly novate) fostered a new species: the na- In personal conversation Rothschild practical form. All the central data is there. tions first super-warehouse grocery. indicated that he is aware of memetics. What are absent are the related, more By the end of chapter 13, the reader, He finds that cultural aspects of memetics radical “memes” associated with in the language of bionomics understands are too soft, or “mushy.” Because written Dawkins, “Libertarians,” and perhaps the importance of survival strategies [read: information is stored outside of the body, even Extropy. This is not to imply ESS] and the role of DNA and information Rothschild indicated that the transfer and Rothschild is white-washing the material, [read: genes and memes]. Rothschild evolution of such information can be nor to imply that Rothschild is an Extropian promotes this information with vigor and tracked through historical records. It re- at heart. In Extropian terms, the meme set scholarship while tuning it to his readers, mains my personal belief that memetics presented in these chapters contains all educated people who are business is compatible with bionomic theory. Today the important “infectious” thoughts in a minded. His success in this effort will we lack the ability to locate and study the manner that is not likely to cause a meme- undoubtably lead to the success of Bion- storage sites of memes. Thus Rothschild based immunological response. Proof of omics. is correct that in a direct and focused his success is evidenced by an article by manner memetics cannot help bionom- John Hillkirk in the September 20, 1991 ics. One day we may well gain the ability Money section of USA Today in which 1From the front flap of the Jacket to Bio- to find receptor sites in the brain. On that Donald Peterson, Retired Ford Motor nomics. day, meme theory and bionomics will Company CEO lists Bionomics as one of converge. Today they remain convergent three “favorite books.” 2In the modern “libertarian” sense (he believed only in theory. The theory being the effect Rothschild, in a manner likely to ap- in “regulation of paper money banking, the of coded and replicating information on peal to a “Big Three” CEO, draws detailed compulsory registration of mortgages, govern- human existence and evolution. case studies from both biology and eco- ment participation in education, the granting of temporary monopolies to merchants engaged in nomics. His analysis shows that suc- enterprises of risk..., government stamps of Chapters 12 and 13: Surplus and Genes; cessful survival vehicles benefit from the quality on plate and on linen and woollen cloth, Profits and Technology same type of marginal efficiencies. He and the establishment of a maximum rate of presents his compelling conclusion in interest.)” Ronald Hamowy, The Scottish En- Every genetic mutation has an effect both text and in the form of a typical busi- lightenment and the Theory of Spontaneous upon the survival of that gene. The aggre- ness income statement. These income Order (Illinois: Southern Illinois University Press, gate effects of various genetic mutations statements compare bumblebee hives 1987) p. 21. effect the survival vehicle in which those and super-warehouse grocery stores. 3Calling Adam Smith, often referred to as the genes reside. The product of genes are Rothschild created his income statements father of laissez-faire economics, an interven- their phenotypic expression; Richard from University of Vermont Zoology pro- tionist is an unorthodox view at best. Perhaps Dawkins extends phenotypical effects to fessor Bernard Heinrich’s physiological it is more fair to say Smith was not an anarchist artifacts which are outside the survival and ecological study of bumblebees7 and and his beliefs in the “legitimate role of govern- vehicle. The size and general construc- case studies by Willard Bishop Consult- ment” result in visible governmental “hands” tion of dams are among the extended ing Economists Ltd. Not only is Rothschild affecting the marketplace. If laissez-faire eco- phenotypes of beavers. convincing in presenting the benefits of nomics is defined in terms of a free and unfet- Whether visible like a beaver dam, or marginal effects of advantage in evolu- tered marketplace, Smith can be called a (lim- ited) interventionist. “invisible” like microscopic changes in a tionarily stable systems (ESS) but he is survival vehicle’s “eye,” phenotypic expres- able successfully to prove the pivotal func- 4Ronald Hamowy, The Scottish Enlightenment sion affects the ability of a survival vehicle tion of replicators (like genes or memes), and the Theory of Spontaneous Order (Illinois: to thrive. Apparent advances in pheno- without the language of Dawkins. In the Southern Illinois University Press, 1987) p. 13. typic expression can lead to extinction case of the bumblebees this is the pheno- In as much as the central theme of Smith’s work rather than reproductive success. Poor typic expression of its genes and the re- in The Wealth of Nations is based upon his expressions might result from genetic sulting ESS employed by successful theory of spontaneous order — a theory first mutations that lead to “investments” in hives. In the case of Super Valu/Cub Food, delineated in his prior work, Theory of Moral Sentiments. “Probably the clearest exposition wings that are larger than needed, or a he demonstrates how the grocery busi- of the idea of spontaneous order as it related to larger brain that consumes too much of a ness knowledge memes) of a post-Civil economic phenomena is offered in the work of

EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 42 Adam Smith. It should be emphasized, how- ever, that the theory that complex social pat- terns are self-coordinating and need no delib- erate ordering applies as much to Smith’s moral CONTRIBUTORS theory as to his analysis of the market.” Hamowy's footnote: See T.D. Campbell, Adam Smith’s Science of Morals (London: George Fran Finney: Fran received her BS in Biology from CalTech, did some Allen & Unwin, 1971), 94-106. graduate work in Neuroscience at the University of California, San Diego, and is studying for a Masters in Physical Therapy at the University of 5Ronald Hamowy, The Scottish Enlightenment and the Theory of Spontaneous Order (Illinois: Southern California. Southern Illinois University Press, 1987) p. 15 J. Storrs Hall: Moderator of the USENET sci.nanotech newsgroup and 6 This is a theory put forth by Niles Eldredge and Extropy's Nanotechnology Editor. Stephen Jay Gould (Eldredge & Gould 1972). Darwin's theory of Natural Selection is not [email protected] readily detectable in the fossil record — the fossil record does not reveal gradual change David Krieger: David is System's Librarian at RAND, Extropy's Science but rather reveal sudden change. The theory of Editor, an Extropy Institute director, and a former Technical Consultant to punctuated equilibrium attempts to explain this by showing that a small sub-group of a species Star Trek: The Next Generation. can evolve gradually, but when through natural [email protected] catastrophe, the parent species dies out, the new species can move into that niche. See Simon! D. Levy: Editor of ExI's newsletter, Exponent, Computing and Dawkins, Richard, The Extended Phenotype, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982) pp. Linguistics Editor for Extropy, and a director of Extropy Institute, Simon! is 101-109. studying for a Ph.D in Linguistics at the University of Connecticut while working at Haskins Laboratories. 7 Bumblebee Economics (Cambridge: Harvard levy%[email protected] University Press, 1979). Electronic Extropy Hans Moravec: Director of the Mobile Robot Laboratory at Carnegie Extropy #8 and #9 will be available on Mellon University, Hans is author of Mind Children: The Future of Robot and diskette (3.5") by the end of July, in various Human Intelligence. formats, including ascii text and Page- [email protected] Maker. We will be uploading these issues to AMIX – The American Information Ex- Max More: Editor of Extropy and Executive Director of Extropy Institute, change – where anyone can buy them and Max received his BA in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics from St. download them. We will gradually stock Anne's College, Oxford University in 1987, and now is writing his Ph.D the private Extropians market on AMIX with dissertation on The Diachronic Self: Identity, Continuity, and Transforma- all back issues, and with additional es- tion at the Philosophy Department, University of Southern California. says, probably including our new bi- [email protected] monthly newsletter Exponent. More de- tails will be announced later in Exponent, R. Michael Perry: Co-Editor, Venturist Monthly News, historical colum- and Extropy #10 (Winter issue 1992-93). nist for Cryonics, and Patient Caretaker at Alcor Life Extension Foundation, Can You Help? Mike has a Ph.D in Computer Science, and is writing a book on death and immortality: Forever for All. We are looking for a talented person [email protected] willing to help design attractive covers for Extropy twice per year. The sharper our image, the more copies will sell on the David J. Ross: Founder of Calera Recognition Technologies, Vice shelves. President of Research for Arkenstone, Inc., and Chairman of RAF Technol- Extropy Institute has only just got un- ogy, Inc. derway and is looking for talented people [email protected] to help out in several capacities. Of course, financial help is wanted; the first thing to Harry Shapiro: Manager of the Extropians e-mail list, Harry is Manager do here is to join as a member. Some of of Computer Services for Warwick, Baker, Fiori, has consulted at Bell the early members of ExI have joined as Laboratories, and worked in technical positions at E.F. Hutton and sustaining members (Thanks Harry Shapiro and J. Storrs Hall). Other types of Shearson Lehman Brothers – the brokerage division of American Express. help would be valuable too, such as graphic [email protected] design, fund-raising skills, and help with our projects. We could do with various items of office equipment, especially a good fax, and some additional filing cabi- nets. If you can help out in any way, please contact Executive Director Max More at the Extropy address, or phone (213) 484- Printed by Customized Computer Publishing, University of Southern California, 6383, or send e-mail to [email protected]. Los Angeles. (213) 740-6262 43 EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 P.O. Box 57306 Los Angeles CA 90057-0306

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EXTROPY #9 Summer 1992 44