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i Front cover Map of the armistice lines between Israel and the Arab states: Available at: http://www.passia.org/palestine_facts/MAPS/Rhodes_Armistice.htm (15 April 2009). United Nations logo: Available at: http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/en/drip.html (15 April 2009). 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[ ) 91 w 4 *% w 55) ' L 6W /' 0 *, 9b5hw{LbD ÇI9 {Ç!ÇÜ { vÜ h ÇI9 ÇwLt!wÇLÇ9 59/[!w!ÇLhb ! w9b9í95 twh{t9/Ç{ Chw w9{9ÇÇ[9a9bÇ# !! bhb&!//9tÇ!b/9 hC ÇI9 {Ç!ÇÜ { vÜ h /I!tÇ9w h b 9 [!{Ç Çwò " ! {Ç!Ç9 hC !ÇwhtIò " L W 0 Ç' w ) h Ü b wí !, w9!/ÇLhb Çh Lb!/ÇLhb ÇI9 !/ÇLëL{a hC W!a9{ .!w/h ÇI9 t!wL{ /hbC9w9b/9 [ / h * { 9) ' C { . ) b 6!)) , !//9tÇLbD C!L[Ü w9 /I!tÇ9w /h b /[Ü {Lh b { th[LÇL/![ íL[[ ÇI9 aL{{LbD tL9/9 hC ÇI9 tÜ ùù[9 ! ÇI9 LbC[Ü9b/9 !b5 th{LÇLhb hC ÇI9 t// 59C9b5LbD ÇI9 Üb !D9b5! !tt9b 5Ló L a !t{ Ü b t!wÇLÇLhb t[!b* !" " !waL{ÇL/9 .hw59w{* !"! ' !tt9b 5Ló LL Ü b w9{h [Ü ÇLh b { D9b9w![ !{{9a.[ò w9{h[ÜÇLhb !" hC 59/9a.9w !" D9b9w![ !{{9a.[ò w9{h[ÜÇLhb !" hC " 59/9a.9w !' .L.[Lh Dw!tIò [LÇ9w!ÇÜ w9 !w/ILë9{ /hb{Ü [Ç95 twLbÇ95 twLa!wò {hÜ w/9{ b9í{ t!t9w !wÇL/[9 " Lb 59ó v 0≤•¶°£• Few regions in the world have been more beset by conflict during the last 60 years than the Middle East. Numerous efforts by individuals, organizations and states to open up channels for negotiations have ended in failure. Even long before the outbreak of the first Arab-Israeli conflict in 1948, the United Nations, the United States and Great Britain all had made proposals for how Palestine could be peacefully divided. From then on the list of peace initiatives grew long: Through several UN mediation attempts in the aftermath of the first Arab-Israeli war, to more recent efforts such as the Camp David agreement, the Madrid conference, the Oslo agreement, the Camp David II accords, the Arab Peace Initiative, the Roadmap, the Madrid +15 and, most recently, the Annapolis conference. The discrepancy between the number of peace efforts and the lack of peace is striking. Why is there no peace in the Middle East? What are the conditions that have to be met for peace to materialize? How can the failures of the numerous mediation attempts be explained? Perhaps the best way to answer these complex and difficult questions is by thorough analyses of each of the initiatives. This MA thesis is a part of that task. At the end of almost two years of hard work, there are many people who deserve gratitude. First and foremost, I want to thank my supervisor Professor Hilde Henriksen Waage at the University of Oslo and PRIO. I honestly could not have asked for a more inspiring or enthusiastic supervisor. Somehow, despite her very busy schedule, Hilde has always managed to find the time to offer her advice and comments to my work. I am truly grateful for all the effort and energy she has invested in my project. I also wish to thank Hilde’s research assistant Marte Heian-Engdal for helpful advice in the formative stage of my project. The International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), along with its entire staff, deserves my deepest gratitude. I thank you for all the support and inspiration you have given me, and especially for offering me an 8.5 months student scholarship which has allowed me to devote my full attention to this thesis. I can hardly describe what an exceptionally valuable experience it is for a young MA student to participate in academic discussions with some of the most gifted scholars in Norway. Amongst the PRIO staff, I especially owe gratitude to Jørgen Jensehaugen for all his thoughtful comments and observations on my manuscript. My fellow student Petter Stenberg has been an invaluable asset to this thesis from the very beginning. I have deeply appreciated our close cooperation, his tireless reading and intelligent feedback. Moreover, I want to thank Petter as well as Emil Lahlum and Amund vi Lundesgaard for making our archival research trip to Washington DC unforgettable. I also thank the Department of Archaeology, Conservation and History and the History Program at the University of Oslo for jointly funding my stay in Washington. Maria Bergram Aas, Harald Viken, Marielle Stigum, Erlend Paasche and Florian Krampe deserve special mention for excellent company at our shared office at PRIO. Furthermore, I wish to thank all my fellow students at the University of Oslo for two wonderful years. I wish you all the best of luck with your theses and future endeavors. Finally, I owe warm gratitude to my friends and family outside the academics. I know the Middle East is not the center of attention for most people, and I thank you all for bearing with me. A special thanks to my wife Kaia for intelligent observations on my chapter drafts, and for all her loving support and motivation in this special educational passage of my life. PRIO, April 2009 Stian Johansen Tiller vii viii #®°∞¥•≤ )Æ¥≤اµ£¥©ØÆ The birth of Israel on 14 May 1948 had a dramatic impact on the Middle East. Although a state of civil war had ensued in Palestine ever since the adoption of the United Nations’ Partition Plan in November 1947, the proclamation of Israel’s independence was the triggering event for the outbreak of a regional war which would permanently change the geographical, demographical and political outlook of the Middle East. The Arab states reacted immediately. On the very next day, 15 May, the armies of Egypt, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq invaded the new-born Jewish state. The result was a long and bitter war which lasted until 7 January 1949, when the UN successfully imposed a cease-fire between the belligerents.1 This first Arab-Israeli war left a range of complex and difficult questions unanswered. The borders between Israel and its Arab neighbours remained undecided. The UN’s plan to partition Palestine had been based on a specific territorial arrangement, with the foundation of an independent Arab state to be inhabited by the Palestinians, and an international regime to govern the city of Jerusalem. Compared to the Partition Plan, however, Israel – the great victor of the war – had increased its share of Palestine from 56 to 77 per cent.2 At the same time, the name Palestine was effectively erased from the map, along with the prospects for an independent state for the Palestinians; for while the Jews had fulfilled their dreams of statehood, the Palestinian society was left in ruins, and 600 000-760 000 Palestinians had become refugees, ending up on the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, or in neighbouring Arab countries.