Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail
Overview
The North of England is home to around 1.1 million businesses, more than 7.7 million jobs and over 15 million people. The North’s economy is around £343 billion, 19% of the UK total. If the North were a country, it would be the 27th largest economy in the world.1 However over the coming decade, the North is forecasted to experience slower population growth2 and lower levels of economic growth compared to the rest of England.3
The Northern Powerhouse concept emerged under the 2010–2015 Coalition
and subsequently formed part of the 2017 Industrial Strategy of Theresa May’s Government.4 It is a vision for a super- connected, globally competitive northern economy with a flourishing private sector, a highly skilled population and world- renowned civic and business leadership.5
Northern Powerhouse Rail will provide North–South and East–West connections across the North as a backbone of a strong economy and is the centrepiece of Transport for the North’s (TfN) Strategic Transport Plan 2019.6 It also builds on analysis by the National Infrastructure Commission’s High Speed North study7 and The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review, which sets out a blueprint for the economic transformation of the North that will rebalance the UK economy.8 To achieve the Northern Powerhouse vision, TfN believes both Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed 2 (HS2) are integral to the North’s future network.9 ICE has recently delivered an insights paper on HS2 and alternative proposals, which covers Northern Powerhouse Rail.10
The importance of regional infrastructure strategies and devolving powers on infrastructure has been well examined by ICE.11 ICE has long emphasised the link between these activities and balanced growth and improved productivity in the North.12
Purpose of this paper
The purpose of this insights paper is to examine the proposed benefits and possible alternatives to the Northern Powerhouse Rail programme. The paper aims to inform the broader policy debate on Northern Powerhouse Rail by providing analysis and insight from published evidence, ICE Fellows and industry experts from the North of England.
1 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 2 Office for National Statistics (2018) Subnational Population Projections for England 3 House of Commons Library (2020) Regional and Country Economic Indicators 4 HM Treasury (2016) Northern Powerhouse Strategy 5 SQW (2016) The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review 6 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 7 National Infrastructure Commission (2016) High Speed North 8 SQW (2016) The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review 9 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 10 ICE (2019) Civil Engineering Insights on HS2 and Alternative Proposals 11 ICE (2016) State of the Nation 2016: Devolution; ICE (2016) National Needs Assessment; ICE (2017) Delivering a Northern Infrastructure Strategy; ICE (2019) What Should be in the National Infrastructure Strategy? 12 ICE (2017) Delivering a Northern Infrastructure Strategy
Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Institution of Civil Engineers is a Registered Charity in 1 England & Wales (no 210252) and Scotland (SC038629)
About Northern Powerhouse Rail
Rather than a single project, Northern Powerhouse Rail is a major rail programme designed to unlock the economic potential of the North. The programme defines a proposed rail network for the North of England that improves connectivity between major economic centres and transport hubs throughout the North East, North West and Yorkshire. Northern Powerhouse Rail proposals feature new, significantly upgraded and electrified rail lines to increase the capacity, speed and resilience of the North’s rail network.13
Northern Powerhouse Rail is expected to transform connectivity between major northern cities, helping to redefine the economic relationships within and beyond the North. It consists of six routes between major cities:14
• Liverpool to Manchester • Manchester to Sheffield • Manchester to Leeds • Leeds to Newcastle • Leeds to Hull • Sheffield to Hull.
In TfN’s Strategic Transport Plan, Northern Powerhouse Rail is conceived as part of a larger transport network for the North, and the plan envisages further investment in road, rail, bus, aviation and freight networks. The Strategic Transport Plan reflects the interconnectivity and interdependence of each aspect of the network.15
Similarly, TfN argues that both Northern Powerhouse Rail and HS2 are integral to the North’s future rail network and should be planned as part of the wider network, and not in isolation.16 Following an independent review of HS2,17 the UK Government has decided to proceed with the project – emphasising that delivering better, faster and more reliable transport connections is the way to close the opportunity gap across the country.18
The Government’s HS2 announcement included commitments to accelerate progress on Northern Powerhouse Rail and develop an integrated plan for rail in the North, informed by an assessment from the National Infrastructure Commission. The Government also flagged its intention to consider options for a new delivery body to deliver High Speed North.19 These announcements illustrate the need to plan HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail in an integrated manner to maximise the benefits of rail investments across the North. HS2 Ltd also expects Northern Powerhouse Rail will enhance the economic and business case for HS2.20
Much like HS2, Northern Powerhouse Rail is still under development. While the exact routes are not yet determined, TfN is carrying out comprehensive early-stage work throughout 2020 to make progress towards a single preferred concept on each route. An updated Strategic Outline Business Case for Northern Powerhouse Rail is expected to be delivered in 2020, TfN having secured £52 million of development funding for 2019–20 to progress the programme.21 Public engagement on the proposed network is expected to start in the early 2020s.22
13 Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse Rail 14 Ibid 15 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 16 Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse Rail: At a Glance 17 Douglas Oakervee (2020) Oakervee Review of HS2 18 HM Government (2020) PM Confirms HS2 Will Go Ahead Alongside Revolution in Local Transport 19 Ibid 20 HS2 Ltd (2019) HS2 Chairman’s Stocktake 21 Ibid 22 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity
Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Institution of Civil Engineers is a Registered Charity in 2 England & Wales (no 210252) and Scotland (SC038629)
Identified benefits Greater connectivity for the North Analysis by Network Rail of city-to-city commuting patterns in the UK shows that the level of commuting between northern cities is lower than other parts of the UK. The analysis also demonstrates the disparity between access to jobs in London compared with other cities. For example, the average number of jobs accessible within 60 minutes by rail available to someone living in the North West is 187,000, compared to 1.7 million for someone living in London.23
Train journey times and frequencies in the North generally compare badly against similar intercity journeys in the South East (and comparator international journeys).24 Northern Powerhouse Rail has the potential to significantly improve journey times as outlined in the table below:25
Corridor Best current journey Potential journey time (mins) time (mins)
Liverpool to Manchester 37 26 Manchester to Sheffield 49 40 Manchester to Leeds 46 25 Leeds to Newcastle 88 58 Leeds to Hull 57 38 Sheffield to Hull 80 50
According to TfN, by 2050 Northern Powerhouse Rail could bring more than 10 million people within 90 minutes of key cities in the North, against just 2 million today.26 Notably, integrated transport planning at a local level, such as Sheffield City Region’s Integrated Rail Plan, is already taking Northern Powerhouse Rail into account.27
International connectivity is important for the North. Northern Powerhouse Rail could improve access to the global economy via improved connectivity to northern ports and airports. The combined impact of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail could increase the number of people able to access Manchester Airport Station within an hour from 2 million today to 4.7 million, and within 90 minutes by 4 million to 8.7 million – over half of the North’s population. This could assist in reducing the pressure on London’s busy transport networks by making Manchester Airport and other northern airports more attractive options for northern air passengers.28 The North is also home to a number of major maritime ports, in Lancashire, Cumbria, Humber and the North East, which handled around 35% of the UK total.29 Expanded rail capacity in the North Rail travel in the North is predicted to be up to four times higher in 2050 – from 180 million trips a year today to 760 million in 2050. Northern Powerhouse Rail could increase the number of seats between key northern cities by up to 35,000 per hour.30
Crowding on train services in the North has been described as a serious issue, particularly on trains travelling into the major centres at traditional peak times, but also elsewhere on the network and at non-peak times. The level of crowding
23 Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse Rail: At a Glance 24 National Infrastructure Commission (2015) High Speed North 25 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity 26 Ibid 27 Sheffield City Region (2019) Integrated Rail Plan 28 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity 29 National Infrastructure Commission (2015) High Speed North 30 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity
Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Institution of Civil Engineers is a Registered Charity in 3 England & Wales (no 210252) and Scotland (SC038629)
on some services makes rail travel unattractive and suppresses demand.31 In addition to expanded capacity, Northern Powerhouse Rail could help address the poor punctuality and reliability of rail currently experienced across the North.32
Network Rail forecasts significant freight growth in the North of England.33 While not the primary objective of Northern Powerhouse Rail, the programme could also offer the added benefit of releasing rail capacity for additional freight along key rail corridors in the North. This could support a modal shift by moving freight from congested northern roads onto rail. A more sustainable transport network Rail is a relatively low-carbon transport mode and the Northern Powerhouse Rail programme envisages full electrification. Increasing modal shift to rail will be key to meeting the Government’s net-zero greenhouse emissions target.34 Increasing demand for rail means fewer trips by car, resulting in reduced emissions of air pollution and greenhouse gases. ICE recently delivered an insights paper on the infrastructure sector’s contribution to net-zero.35
Ultimately, Northern Powerhouse Rail is expected to deliver a modal shift and reduce road travel across the North.36 The increased rail capacity promised by Northern Powerhouse Rail would ensure that growth in demand is delivered sustainably, building the market for rail travel by around four times the level seen today and taking up to 64,000 daily car trips off the road – equivalent to 800 million km per year.37 Addressing the North’s productivity challenge Overall productivity in the North trails behind the UK average.38 For the last 30 years, the North’s economic value per person (measured as Gross Value Added (GVA)) has been consistently around 10–15% below the average of the rest of England (excluding London).39 While there are many factors influencing the North’s lower productivity (skills, technology, investment, etc.), poor transport connectivity is identified as a key factor driving the productivity gap.40
A primary objective for Northern Powerhouse Rail is to boost economic growth and close the North–South gap in productivity.41 The programme aims to address the problem of public transport journey times between the major cities in the North of England. According to TfN analysis, Northern Powerhouse Rail could support an increase in productivity of up to 2% by better connecting the North and result in GVA benefits of up to £3.4 billion per year.42 Through expanded labour markets, improved business-to-business connectivity and greater access to ports and airports, Northern Powerhouse Rail could facilitate transformational economic growth. However, further independent analysis is needed to properly understand the impact of Northern Powerhouse Rail on productivity and economic development.
International comparators
Transport connectivity is an enabler of economic development. It can foster regional economic integration and economic agglomeration. But the precise economic benefits of transport connectivity are difficult to accurately assess.43 There are a
31 National Infrastructure Commission (2015) High Speed North 32 TransPennine Express (2020) TransPennine Express Period Performance Data 33 Network Rail (2018) Continuous Modular Strategic Planning: North of England Freight Strategic Questions 34 Committee on Climate Change (2019) Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Stopping Global Warming 35 ICE (2019) Civil Engineering Insights into the UK’s 2050 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Net-Zero Target 36 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity 37 Ibid 38 Office for National Statistics (2020) Annual Regional Labour Productivity; Office for National Statistics (2018) Regional Economic Activity by Gross Value Added: 1998 to 2017 39 SQW (2016) The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review 40 Ibid; PwC (2019) UK Economic Outlook: What Drives Regional Productivity Gaps across the UK and How Can these be Closed? 41 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity 42 Ibid 43 Carbo Martinez J, Graham D, Anupriya A, Casas D, Melo P et al (2018) ‘Evaluating the causal economic impacts of transport investments: Evidence from the Madrid–Barcelona high speed rail corridor’, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol 46; Graham D and Gibbons S (2019) ‘Quantifying wider economic impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: Existing evidence and future directions’, Economics of Transportation, Vol 19; Daniel G Chatman and Robert B Noland (2011) ‘Do public transport improvements increase agglomeration economies? A review of literature and an agenda for research’, Transport Reviews, Vol 31
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number of notable international examples of multi-city regions, with strong performing cities, which have pursued a regional planning approach focused on improved connectivity, including:
• Yangtze River Delta, where three major cities (Shanghai, Hangzhou and Suzhou) cooperate with more than 20 smaller cities to improve coordination of economic development, environmental protection and high-speed rail integration • Greater Pearl River Delta (Hong Kong, Macau, Shenzhen and Guangzhou), which has been pursuing a common growth and infrastructure agenda for more than 15 years • Seoul Capital Region (Seoul, Incheon and Suwon), which is well connected by road and rail transport links and is the cultural, commercial, financial, industrial and residential centre of South Korea.
When initially conceived, the vision at the heart of the Northern Powerhouse was to better connect the North’s key economic centres so they can function as a single economy.44 This approach has been inspired by Randstad in the Netherlands and Rhine-Ruhr in Germany45 – two other polycentric urban regions that, like the North of England, have a number of cities located close together.46
Both the Randstad and Rhine-Ruhr are more productive (measured using GVA per worker) than their national economies and more productive than the North of England.47 But analysis by the Centre for Cities shows commuting between city regions in the Randstad and Rhine-Ruhr is not significantly greater than across city regions in the North, nor are train links much quicker. Instead, the analysis shows strong regional economies require strongly performing cities. This is because the benefits of a large economy are only achieved when combined with the concentration of economic activity in specific places, specifically cities.48 The Centre for Cities’ analysis demonstrates that initiatives such as Northern Powerhouse Rail should be delivered as part of a broader package integrating transport, land-use planning and regional industrial strategy.
The public’s expectations on transport provision in the North
According to a recent YouGov poll, one in five small and medium-sized businesses in the North say public transport is poor.49 The recent National Rail Passenger Survey found that Northern Rail franchise passengers were the least satisfied in the UK (this franchise has now been taken back into public ownership).50 This follows previous Ipsos MORI polling where 82% of respondents stated transport infrastructure investment within the North was one of the two most important priorities (the other was investment in training and skills). In this same poll, seven in ten respondents thought investment in transport links between London and the North was important but indicated that Northerners would prioritise investment between northern cities before further investment in transport between the North and South.51
Further, polling by ComRes has shown strong support for devolution to the North, where four in five northern adults agree that local politicians in the North, rather than MPs in Westminster, should have control over services like transport and health to improve the region.52
44 SQW (2016) The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review 45 ICE (2016) State of the Nation 2016: Devolution 46 House of Commons Library (2016) Briefing Paper: The Northern Powerhouse 47 Centre for Cities (2016) Building the Northern Powerhouse: Lessons from the Rhine-Ruhr and Randstad 48 Ibid 49 YouGov (2019) The 2019 SME Agenda 50 Transport Focus (2019) National Rail Passenger Survey 51 Ipsos MORI (2016) New Poll Reveals Northerners’ Views on the Northern Powerhouse 52 ComRes (2015) BBC Northern Powerhouse Poll
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Alternatives
TfN’s Strategic Transport Plan provides a pan-northern view on multimodal transport priorities. Northern Powerhouse Rail was devised alongside other road and rail initiatives. There are several alternatives to the current Northern Powerhouse Rail programme which could be considered. Business-as-usual rail upgrades One alternative would be to simply continue the current programme of investments in rail upgrades. Network Rail conducts a detailed long-term planning process (LTPP) to understand the capability of the network up to 30 years into the future so that it can promote efficient use of network capability and capacity. The most recent LTPP informs planning for Control Period 6 (2019–2024).53
But TfN argues that there are challenges involved in adding extra or more frequent services to the constrained rail infrastructure in the North. The North has inherited a Victorian railway largely pared back to a mostly two-track network, carrying a competing mix of traffic including fast intercity trains, local stopping services and freight services.54 According to TfN, even with planned improvements to rail capacity, forecast growth on the rail network in the North will lead to significant crowding by 2033 on some parts of the network.55
The ongoing capacity and reliability issues along the Castlefield rail corridor in Manchester are well established and provide an illustrative example of the limitations of an ad hoc approach to rail upgrades. Investment in the road network The North’s road network already has considerable capacity issues and requires investment. Currently, over 80% of commuting trips and 87% of freight movements use the road network in the North, which equates to more than 120.4 billion km travelled across the North’s roads every year.56 Journey times can be relatively slow when travelling by road, particularly centre-to-centre journeys. The journey time when travelling between Liverpool and Manchester, for example, is still around 51 minutes over a distance of around 34 miles, with an average speed of only around 40 mph.57
The Major Roads Report identifies future network requirements and provides a case for investment in northern roads.58 For example, the M62 is the only continuous East–West dual carriageway road across the North and carries half of all trans-Pennine traffic. It is both congested and unreliable and there are significant risks associated with the North being so heavily dependent on the successful operation of just one road.59
However, investment in road networks at the expense of rail is unlikely to realise the same level of productivity improvements nor agglomeration benefits.
About ICE
Established in 1818 and with over 95,000 members worldwide, the Institution of Civil Engineers exists to deliver insights on infrastructure for societal benefit, using the professional engineering knowledge of our global membership.
For more information please contact:
Alex Hardy, Policy Manager, ICE [email protected]
53 Network Rail (2020) Long-Term Planning 54 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 55 Ibid 56 Ibid 57 Ibid 58 Transport for the North (2018) Major Roads Report 59 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan
Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Institution of Civil Engineers is a Registered Charity in 6 England & Wales (no 210252) and Scotland (SC038629)