Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Overview The North of England is home to around 1.1 million businesses, more than 7.7 million jobs and over 15 million people. The North’s economy is around £343 billion, 19% of the UK total. If the North were a country, it would be the 27th largest economy in the world.1 However over the coming decade, the North is forecasted to experience slower population growth2 and lower levels of economic growth compared to the rest of England.3 The Northern Powerhouse concept emerged under the 2010–2015 Coalition and subsequently formed part of the 2017 Industrial Strategy of Theresa May’s Government.4 It is a vision for a super- connected, globally competitive northern economy with a flourishing private sector, a highly skilled population and world- renowned civic and business leadership.5 Northern Powerhouse Rail will provide North–South and East–West connections across the North as a backbone of a strong economy and is the centrepiece of Transport for the North’s (TfN) Strategic Transport Plan 2019.6 It also builds on analysis by the National Infrastructure Commission’s High Speed North study7 and The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review, which sets out a blueprint for the economic transformation of the North that will rebalance the UK economy.8 To achieve the Northern Powerhouse vision, TfN believes both Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed 2 (HS2) are integral to the North’s future network.9 ICE has recently delivered an insights paper on HS2 and alternative proposals, which covers Northern Powerhouse Rail.10 The importance of regional infrastructure strategies and devolving powers on infrastructure has been well examined by ICE.11 ICE has long emphasised the link between these activities and balanced growth and improved productivity in the North.12 Purpose of this paper The purpose of this insights paper is to examine the proposed benefits and possible alternatives to the Northern Powerhouse Rail programme. The paper aims to inform the broader policy debate on Northern Powerhouse Rail by providing analysis and insight from published evidence, ICE Fellows and industry experts from the North of England. 1 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 2 Office for National Statistics (2018) Subnational Population Projections for England 3 House of Commons Library (2020) Regional and Country Economic Indicators 4 HM Treasury (2016) Northern Powerhouse Strategy 5 SQW (2016) The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review 6 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 7 National Infrastructure Commission (2016) High Speed North 8 SQW (2016) The Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review 9 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 10 ICE (2019) Civil Engineering Insights on HS2 and Alternative Proposals 11 ICE (2016) State of the Nation 2016: Devolution; ICE (2016) National Needs Assessment; ICE (2017) Delivering a Northern Infrastructure Strategy; ICE (2019) What Should be in the National Infrastructure Strategy? 12 ICE (2017) Delivering a Northern Infrastructure Strategy Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Institution of Civil Engineers is a Registered Charity in 1 England & Wales (no 210252) and Scotland (SC038629) About Northern Powerhouse Rail Rather than a single project, Northern Powerhouse Rail is a major rail programme designed to unlock the economic potential of the North. The programme defines a proposed rail network for the North of England that improves connectivity between major economic centres and transport hubs throughout the North East, North West and Yorkshire. Northern Powerhouse Rail proposals feature new, significantly upgraded and electrified rail lines to increase the capacity, speed and resilience of the North’s rail network.13 Northern Powerhouse Rail is expected to transform connectivity between major northern cities, helping to redefine the economic relationships within and beyond the North. It consists of six routes between major cities:14 • Liverpool to Manchester • Manchester to Sheffield • Manchester to Leeds • Leeds to Newcastle • Leeds to Hull • Sheffield to Hull. In TfN’s Strategic Transport Plan, Northern Powerhouse Rail is conceived as part of a larger transport network for the North, and the plan envisages further investment in road, rail, bus, aviation and freight networks. The Strategic Transport Plan reflects the interconnectivity and interdependence of each aspect of the network.15 Similarly, TfN argues that both Northern Powerhouse Rail and HS2 are integral to the North’s future rail network and should be planned as part of the wider network, and not in isolation.16 Following an independent review of HS2,17 the UK Government has decided to proceed with the project – emphasising that delivering better, faster and more reliable transport connections is the way to close the opportunity gap across the country.18 The Government’s HS2 announcement included commitments to accelerate progress on Northern Powerhouse Rail and develop an integrated plan for rail in the North, informed by an assessment from the National Infrastructure Commission. The Government also flagged its intention to consider options for a new delivery body to deliver High Speed North.19 These announcements illustrate the need to plan HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail in an integrated manner to maximise the benefits of rail investments across the North. HS2 Ltd also expects Northern Powerhouse Rail will enhance the economic and business case for HS2.20 Much like HS2, Northern Powerhouse Rail is still under development. While the exact routes are not yet determined, TfN is carrying out comprehensive early-stage work throughout 2020 to make progress towards a single preferred concept on each route. An updated Strategic Outline Business Case for Northern Powerhouse Rail is expected to be delivered in 2020, TfN having secured £52 million of development funding for 2019–20 to progress the programme.21 Public engagement on the proposed network is expected to start in the early 2020s.22 13 Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse Rail 14 Ibid 15 Transport for the North (2019) Strategic Transport Plan 16 Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse Rail: At a Glance 17 Douglas Oakervee (2020) Oakervee Review of HS2 18 HM Government (2020) PM Confirms HS2 Will Go Ahead Alongside Revolution in Local Transport 19 Ibid 20 HS2 Ltd (2019) HS2 Chairman’s Stocktake 21 Ibid 22 Transport for the North (2019) The Potential of Northern Powerhouse Rail: Improve Connectivity, Unlock Opportunity Civil engineering insights into Northern Powerhouse Rail Institution of Civil Engineers is a Registered Charity in 2 England & Wales (no 210252) and Scotland (SC038629) Identified benefits Greater connectivity for the North Analysis by Network Rail of city-to-city commuting patterns in the UK shows that the level of commuting between northern cities is lower than other parts of the UK. The analysis also demonstrates the disparity between access to jobs in London compared with other cities. For example, the average number of jobs accessible within 60 minutes by rail available to someone living in the North West is 187,000, compared to 1.7 million for someone living in London.23 Train journey times and frequencies in the North generally compare badly against similar intercity journeys in the South East (and comparator international journeys).24 Northern Powerhouse Rail has the potential to significantly improve journey times as outlined in the table below:25 Corridor Best current journey Potential journey time (mins) time (mins) Liverpool to Manchester 37 26 Manchester to Sheffield 49 40 Manchester to Leeds 46 25 Leeds to Newcastle 88 58 Leeds to Hull 57 38 Sheffield to Hull 80 50 According to TfN, by 2050 Northern Powerhouse Rail could bring more than 10 million people within 90 minutes of key cities in the North, against just 2 million today.26 Notably, integrated transport planning at a local level, such as Sheffield City Region’s Integrated Rail Plan, is already taking Northern Powerhouse Rail into account.27 International connectivity is important for the North. Northern Powerhouse Rail could improve access to the global economy via improved connectivity to northern ports and airports. The combined impact of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail could increase the number of people able to access Manchester Airport Station within an hour from 2 million today to 4.7 million, and within 90 minutes by 4 million to 8.7 million – over half of the North’s population. This could assist in reducing the pressure on London’s busy transport networks by making Manchester Airport and other northern airports more attractive options for northern air passengers.28 The North is also home to a number of major maritime ports, in Lancashire, Cumbria, Humber and the North East, which handled around 35% of the UK total.29 Expanded rail capacity in the North Rail travel in the North is predicted to be up to four times higher in 2050 – from 180 million trips a year today to 760 million in 2050. Northern Powerhouse Rail could increase the number of seats between key northern cities by up to 35,000 per hour.30 Crowding on train services in the North has been described as a serious issue, particularly on trains travelling into the major centres at traditional peak times, but also elsewhere on the network and at non-peak times. The level of crowding 23 Transport for the North (2019) Northern Powerhouse Rail: At a Glance 24 National Infrastructure