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Pomen in Vloga Jedrske Oborožitve V Politično-Strateških Razmerjih 21

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Pomen in Vloga Jedrske Oborožitve V Politično-Strateških Razmerjih 21 UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Jure Egelič Pomen in vloga jedrske oborožitve v politično-strateških razmerjih 21. stoletja Magistrsko delo Ljubljana, 2016 UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Jure Egelič Mentor: red. prof. dr. Anton Bebler Pomen in vloga jedrske oborožitve v politično-strateških razmerjih 21. stoletja Magistrsko delo Ljubljana, 2016 Izjava o avtorstvu Pomen in vloga jedrske oborožitve v politično-strateških razmerjih 21. stoletja Povzetek Razvoj znanosti in tehnologije v 20. stoletju je s seboj prinesel tudi temno plat, ki se je prvič pokazala svetu avgusta 1945 na Japonskem, nato pa v teku desetletij zaznamovala življenja več sto milijonov ljudi, ki jih je ločevala železna zavesa. Jedrsko orožje se je pojavilo na koncu dolgega, zapletenega in dragega raziskovalnega programa v ZDA, nato pa se je to znanje na tak ali drugačen način širilo med ostalimi državami. Danes je na svetu devet držav, ki razpolagajo z jedrskim orožjem in vsaka je ubrala nekoliko drugačno pot za dosego tega cilja. Razlikujejo se tudi politične, varnostne in zgodovinske okoliščine, ki uravnavajo odnos do jedrskega orožja in njegovo vlogo v širšem družbenem sistemu teh držav. Ponekod se je jedrsko orožje razvilo iz želje po večjem vplivu v svetovnih dogajanjih, drugje zaradi potrebe po odvračanju znanih in neznanih virov ogrožanja, ali pa preprosto zaradi bridkih preteklih izkušenj, ki so tako državnemu vrhu kot širšemu prebivalstvu vtisnili v zavest zahtevo po najbolj uničujočem in zastrašujočem orožju, ki bi preprečilo, da bi se zgodovina ponovila. Motivov za razvoj jedrskega orožja je veliko, nič manjše pa ni število pojavnih oblik in možnih načinov uporabe jedrske tehnologije. Jedrske konice je mogoče namestiti na velikanske izstrelke z dosegom več tisoč kilometrov in zmožnostjo uničenja celotnih mest, ali pa jih uporabiti le na manjših pehotnih orožjih, namenjenih prostorsko omejenemu delovanju. Slednja vrsta jedrskega orožja je bila zelo pomembna v času hladne vojne, danes pa počasi izgublja na pomenu kot sredstvo vojaške prevlade. V zadnjem desetletju in pol ameriške vojne proti terorizmu se je pozornost vojaških načrtovalcev preusmerila na konvencionalne oborožitvene sisteme, zmožne nenadnega udara na razpršene, težko določljive in še težje dosegljive vire ogrožanja. To je odprlo možnosti za razvoj prihodnjih visokotehnoloških inovacij, ki bodo nekoč morda uporabne tudi za civilne namene, podobno kot jedrska energija. Možnost uporabe specifičnih fizikalnih procesov za miroljubne namene pa ne pomeni, da prizadevanja za omejitev širjenja jedrskega orožja in drugih orožij za množično uničevanje niso potrebna. Pojav mednarodnih sporazumov, ki omejujejo in prepovedujejo nepooblaščen prenos nevarnih tehnologij in orožij je zagotovo pomagal pri zmanjšanju tveganja katastrofalne in pogubne jedrske vojne na svetovni ravni, pomembno vlogo pri tem pa imajo tudi države imetnice jedrskega orožja. Te imajo v tem pogledu očitno priviligiran status, a to je odraz trenutnega razmerja moči v sodobnem svetu, v katerem je vojaška moč še vedno pomemben dejavnik. Malo verjetno je, da bi se tak sistem odnosov v prihodnosti lahko bistveno spremenil, prav mogoče pa je, da se bodo dominantne in podrejene vloge v 21. stoletju vsaj v omejenem obsegu premešale. Mnogi kazalci namigujejo, da jedrsko orožje izgublja svoj lesk, verjetno tudi zato, ker ne predstavlja več tako bleščečega tehnološkega dosežka kot nekoč, s tem pa kopni tudi želja bogatih in razvitih držav, da bi ga razvile. Veliko prezgodaj je sicer za napoved konca jedrske dobe, s precejšnjo mero gotovosti pa lahko zatrdimo, da je svoj vrhunec že doživela v prejšnjem stoletju. Ključne besede: jedrsko orožje, jedrsko širjenje, orožje prihodnosti, velesila. The significance and role of nuclear armaments in the political and strategic relations in the 21. century Summary The progress of science and technology in the 20th century brought about its dark side as well, a fact which first became apparent to the world in August of 1945 in Japan, and then went on to influence the lives of hundreds of millions of people, separated by the Iron Curtain. Nuclear weapons appeared at the end of a long, complicated and expensive research program in the US, and the acquired knowledge was subsequently disseminated amongst several other countries. Presently, there are nine states that possess nuclear weapons and each of them took a different path in attaining that goal. There are numerous differences in the political, security and historical circumstances that shape the outlook towards nuclear weapons and their role in the broader social system of these countries. In some places, nuclear weapons were developed out of desire for a greater influence in world affairs, in other places, out of necessity for deterring known and unknown threats. Alternatively, it could simply be a consequence of bitter past experiences, which imprinted the political leadership, as well as the public at large, with an overwhelming need for the most devastating and terrifying weapon, that would prevent the history to repeat itself. There are many motives for the development of nuclear weapons, and the possible manifestations and applications of nuclear technology are numerous as well. Nuclear warheads can be mounted on enormous missiles with a range of several thousand kilometers and the ability of wiping out entire cities, or they can be used on smaller infantry weapons, intended for geographically limited purposes. The latter type of nuclear weapons was important during the Cold War, but has since lost its function as a tool of military domination. In the last decade and a half of the American war on terrorism, the attention of military planners has shifted to conventional weapon systems, capable of a sudden strike on scattered threats that are hard to identify and even harder to reach. This opened the way for future technological innovations that could in time prove to be suitable for civilian purposes as well, much like nuclear energy. However, the possibility of harnessing specific physical processes for peaceful goals does not preclude the necessity for international efforts to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. The creation of international treaties, limiting and prohibiting unauthorized transfer of dangerous technologies and weapons, has certainly contributed to diminishing risks for a catastrophic and devastating global nuclear war, but the role and influence of current nuclear weapons states should not be discounted. In that regard, they clearly enjoy a privileged status, but this is only a reflection of current power relations in the modern world, where military strength is still a significant factor. It is unlikely, that this system could significantly change in the future, but it is possible that the dominant and submissive roles will be somewhat reshuffled in the 21st century. There are plenty of indicators that suggest that nuclear weapons are losing their luster, in part due to the fact that they do not represent the same technological marvel as they once did, thus diminishing the desire of rich and advanced countries to develop them. While it is much too early to proclaim an end to the nuclear age, we can affirm with a healthy degree of certainty, that it had reached its apex in the previous century. Keywords: nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, future weapon, superpower. KAZALO SEZNAM KRATIC ................................................................................................................................. 7 1 UVOD .................................................................................................................................................. 8 2 METODOLOŠKI OKVIR .................................................................................................................. 12 2.1 Cilji proučevanja ......................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Hipotetični okvir .......................................................................................................................... 12 2.3 Metodološki pristop ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Struktura magistrskega dela ........................................................................................................ 15 3 RAZVOJ JEDRSKIH TEHNOLOGIJ ............................................................................................... 17 3.1 Nastanek jedrskega orožja in njegov razvoj ................................................................................ 17 3.2 Zvrsti jedrskega orožja ................................................................................................................ 20 3.2.1 Čisto fisijsko orožje .............................................................................................................. 20 3.2.2 Fisijsko orožje s fuzijskim pogonom .................................................................................... 20 3.2.3 Termonuklearno orožje ......................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Jedrske tehnologije za civilne namene ........................................................................................ 21 3.3.1 Jedrska fuzija .......................................................................................................................
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