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Buy Pvr (Pvrl) Q1FY21 Result Review TP Rs1,520 Key Stock Data PVR (PVRL) BUY CMP Rs1,265 Bloomberg / Reuters PVRL IN /PVRL.BO Potential upside / downside +20% Excellent cost management amid shutdown Sector Media Previous Rating BUY Shares o/s (mn) 51 Summary V/s Consensus Market cap. (Rs mn) 69,794 PVRL has demonstrated strong cost management in Q1FY21 amid the shutdown of EPS (Rs) FY21E FY22E Market cap. (US$ mn) 1,008 Cinemas. Its EBITDA loss of Rs1.16bn was lower than our forecast of Rs1.3 bn. IDBI Capital (Ex-IndAS) (60.9) 59.0 3-m daily avg Trd value (Rs mn) 622.7 PVRL expects the cash-burn in Q2FY21 to be even lower QoQ. Further, it is confident Consensus 28.5 32.4 52-week high / low Rs2,083/707 that part of the cost optimization initiatives to be sustainable. PVRL is hopeful of % difference N.M. N.M. Government providing the date for reopening of Cinemas towards the end- September Sensex / Nifty 39,044 / 11,522 in ‘Open-up 5.0’. It is hopeful of Cinemas being allowed to be reopened in October. We factor shutdown in Q2FY21 and addition of 24 screens in FY21 vs. 40 earlier. We Shareholding Pattern (%) Relative to Sensex (%) factor addition of these towards the end of Q4FY21 and factor utilization of additional Promoters 18.6 135.0 capacity only in FY22. We trim FY22 EBITDA by 3.6%. We see high probability of FII 37.0 Cinemas being allowed to be opened in October which coupled with capital 115.0 DII 15.3 augmentation and excellent cost management execution makes us increase our target 95.0 Public 29.1 EV/EBITDA to 13x FY22E vs. 12x earlier. We maintain BUY with new TP of Rs1,520. 75.0 55.0 Key Highlights and Investment Rationale Price Performance (%) Strong cost management amid shutdown of Cinemas in Q1FY21 35.0 Adjusted for CAM provision and inventory write-off, the avg. monthly cash-burn in Q1 -1m -3m -12m Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Sep-19 Feb-20 Sep-20 Dec-19 Aug-19 Aug-20 Absolute 1.8 27.4 (18.7) Nov-19 Mar-20 was at Rs327 mn vs. guidance of Rs400-450 mn. PVRL expects avg. monthly employee May-20 cost decline to Rs130-140 mn in Q2FY21 vs. avg. Rs227 mn in Q1. Importantly, PVRL Rel to Sensex (1.3) 9.9 (23.2) PVR Ltd. Sensex expects part of the cost optimization initiatives to sustain in H2FY21 and beyond. Raising capital has never been a problem for PVRL; not now either Financial snapshot (Rs mn) PVRL has raised Rs3 bn from rights issue (subscribed 2.24x) and now has cash of Rs4 Year FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E* FY22E* bn and un-drawn banking lines of Rs1.5 bn. This places it in extremely comfortable Revenue 23,341 30,856 34,144 14,246 37,908 position amid the shut-down of Cinemas and for transitioning to normal operations. EBITDA 4,018 5,863 5,761 407 6,895 Positive response from property owners, as expected EBITDA (%) 17.2 19.0 16.9 2.9 18.2 PVRL has reached out to all its property owners for invocation of Force Majeure Adj. PAT 1,247 1,843 273 (3,269) 3,168 clause and has got positive response from almost all of them. It might have to pay EPS (Rs) 26.7 39.4 5.3 (60.9) 59.0 small part of the CAM charges as malls have reopened and which would increase EPS Growth (%) 30.2 47.8 (86.5) N.M. N.M. when Cinemas reopen. Further, it is also engaging them for lowering rentals through PE (x) 47.4 32.1 237.9 N.M. 21.5 revenue-sharing model till end-FY21 and beyond. We expect PVRL to leverage its Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 market leadership and get positive response from property owners. EV/EBITDA (x) 16.7 12.2 13.0 N.M. 10.8 Factor addition of 24/60 screens for FY21/22 RoE (%) 12.2 15.9 1.6 N.M. 14.1 For FY21 we have factored addition of 24 screens where 90%+ work has already been RoCE (%) 13.3 16.9 11.1 N.M. 13.1 completed. Additionally, PVRL has another 28 screens which are under fit-out. Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research.*Adjusted for Ind-AS impact Urmil Shah | [email protected] | +91-22- 2217 1861 Jayalaxmi Gupta | [email protected] | +91-22- 2217 1842 September 16, 2020 PVR | Q1FY21 Result Review Exhibit 1: Financial snapshot (Rs mn) Year to March (Rs mn) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY (%) Revenue 127 8,804 N.M. COGS 969 5,174 N.M. Gross profit (842) 3,630 N.M. Other Expenses 317 2,043 N.M. EBITDA (1,159) 1,587 N.M. Depreciation & amortization 603 549 9.8 EBIT (1,762) 1,038 N.M. Other income (1) 68 N.M. Interest cost 353 415 N.M. PBT (2,116) 690 N.M. Tax (707) 248 N.M. Minority interest (0) 0 N.M. Adjusted net profit (1,410) 443 N.M. Ind-AS 116 impact (847) (267) N.M. Reported net profit (2,256) 176 N.M. Recurring EPS (Rs) (27.5) 9.5 N.M. As % of net revenue Gross profit (663.0) 41.2 SG&A 249.7 23.2 EBITDA (912.7) 18.0 EBIT (1,387.7) 11.8 Reported net profit (1,776.5) 8.1 Tax rate 33.4 35.9 Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research. 2 PVR | Q1FY21 Result Review Exhibit 2: Actual vs. estimates Year-end: March Q1FY21 Q1FY21E Variance (%) Revenue (Rs mn) 127 38 N.M. EBITDA* (Rs mn) (1,159) (1,308) (11.4) EBITDA margin* (%) N.M. N.M. N.M. PAT *(Rs mn) (1,410) (2,133) (33.9) PAT margin* (%) N.M. N.M. N.M. EPS* (Rs) (27.5) (41.6) (33.9) Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research; *Adjusted for Ind-AS impact Exhibit 3: Earnings revision Year to March FY21E* FY22E* New Old Ch (%) New Old Ch (%) Revenue (Rs mn) 14,246 22,535 (36.8) 37,908 40,970 (7.5) EBITDA* (Rs mn) 407 1,016 (59.9) 6,895 7,154 (3.6) EBITDA margin* (%) 2.9 4.5 (165)bps 18.2 17.5 73bps Net Profit (Rs mn) (2,423) (2,597) N.M. 3,168 2,831 11.9 EPS* (Rs) (45.1) (48.0) N.M. 59.0 52.3 12.7 Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research; *Adjusted for Ind-AS impact Exhibit 4: One-year forward EV/EBITDA trend 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70,000 (Rs) 50,000 30,000 10,000 (10,000) Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-19 Apr-20 Feb-18 Sep-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-17 May-18 May-16 6x 10x 14x 18x Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research 3 PVR | Q1FY21 Result Review Exhibit 5: Content pipeline Bollywood Movie Cast Director Sandeep aur Pinky faraar Arjun Kapoor, Parineeti Chopra Dibakar Banerjee Mimi Kriti Sanon, Pankaj Tripathi Laxman Utekar Chhalang Rajkummar Rao, Nushrat Bharucha Hansal Mehta Ram Prasad ki tervi Naseeruddin Shah, Vinay Pathak Seema Pahwa Sooryavanshi Akshay Kumar, Katrina Kaif Rohit Shetty Jhund Amitabh Bachchan Nagraj Manjule 83 Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone Kabir Khan Toofan Farhan Aktar, Paresh Rawal Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra Mumbai Saga John Abraham, Emraan Hashmi Sanjay Gupta Rooh-afza Rajkummar Rao, Janhvi Kapoor Hardik Mehta Sardar Udham Singh Vicky Kaushal Shoojit Sircar Jayesh Bhai Jordaar Ranveer Singh, Boman Irani Krishna Bhatt Shamshera Ranbir Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt Karan Malhotra Bunty aur Babli 2 Saif Ali Khan, Rani Mukherji Varun V Sharma Hungama 2 Shilpa Shetty,Paresh Rawal Priyadarshan Haseen Dilruba Taapsee, Vikrant Massey Vinil Matthew Jersey Shahid Kapoor, Pankaj Kapur Gowtham Tinnanuri Indoo ki jawani Kiara Advani, Aditya Seal Abir Sengupta 99 songs Lisa Ray, Ehan Bhat Dibakar Banerjee Bad Boys Namashi Chakraborty, Amrin Quershi Rajkumar Santoshi Badnaam Mohit Sehgal, Priyanka Ghor Krishna Bhatt Aadhar Saurabh Shukla, Raghubir Yadav Suman Ghosh Hollywood Wonder woman 1984 Gal Gadot, Kristen Wiig Patty Jenkins Unhinged Russell Crowe Derrick Borte Black Widow Scarlett Johansson,Robert Downey Jr Cate Shortland No time to die Daniel Craig, jeffrey wright Cary Joji Fukunaga Peter Rabbit 2 James Corden, Lennie James Will Gluck Dune Zendaya, Jason Momoa Denis Villeneuve The King's man Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Gemma Arterton Matthew Vaughn 4 PVR | Q1FY21 Result Review Movie Cast Director Ghostbusters Afterlife Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace Jason Reitman Tom & Jerry Chloë Grace Moretz, Michael Peña Tim Story Morbius Daniel Craig, Jeffrey Wright Cary Joji Fukunaga The boss baby 2 Alec Baldwin, John Flanagan Tom McGrath Regional Ghye Double Mahesh Manjrekar, Nana Patekar Vishwas Joshi Daddy cool munde fool 2 Jassi Gill, Ranjit Bawa Simerjit Singh Jodi Diljit Dosanjh, Nimrat Khaira Amberdeep Singh Puaada Sonam Bajwa, Ammy Virk Rupinder Chaha Qismat 2 Sargun Mehta, Ammy Virk Jagdeep Sidhu Yaar anmulle returns Rana Jung Bahadur, Navpreet Banga Harry Bhatti Posti Surilie Gautam, Babbal Rai Rana Ranbir Roberrt Jagapathi Babu, Darshan Thoogudeep Tarun Sudhir KGF 2 Sanjay Dutt, Yash Prashanth Neel Kotigobba 3 Kichacha Sudeep, Nithya Memen K.S.
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